After a riveting rivalry week, the regular season is just about over, and most of what remains are final hurdles to secure BCS bowls and for two very important teams, a spot in the national title game. Yes, Oregon and Auburn each have one final test to determine their fate. With TCU already in the clubhouse at 12-0, all they can do is watch and root for Oregon State and South Carolina. College football has a way of throwing some late season curveballs at you, such as USC falling to UCLA to throw away a national title shot in 2006, and West Virginia losing a shot by falling to a mediocre Pitt team a few years ago in their season finale. As as matter of fact, 9 times in the BCS era, which is only 13 years long, a number 1 or 2 team in the BCS rankings has lost their final game of the regular season. The Ducks and Tigers better be prepared to play this Saturday, or that list could get longer. The Big East is also up for grabs with a domino effect scenario for the top three teams. It starts with UConn. If they can top South Florida, they win the league. If they lose, it falls on WVU to beat Rutgers. If West Virginia loses, Pitt can take the league with a win over Cincinnati. If all three lose, we have a 5-way tie that would still put UConn in the BCS bowl. A lot of BCS bowl teams will be decided this week with several conference title games going on. Even though last week was the biggest of the year, there is still plenty to watch this Saturday.
ACC -
The ACC is set for a title game between Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Hokies have come back from an 0-2 start to win 10 straight and be the first team to run the table in ACC games since 2001. Florida State has been very solid in the first year of the post-Bobby Bowden era. They've gotten where they are with defense, and a little help from inconsistent Maryland, NC State and Clemson teams. The ACC has 9 bowl eligible teams, and despite a down year, things are looking up at a few of their schools.
ACC title game pick - Virginia Tech over Florida State
Week 14 outlook - This game is all about Tyrod Taylor. The Hokies have been on an absolute roll, and Ryan Williams is finally healthy again running the ball. Florida State has really been strong defensively, but no ACC team aside from Georgia Tech, who FSU didn't play, has a quarterback that can run like Tyrod Taylor. That element of his game, combined with the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over with just 4 interceptions on the year puts the Hokies over the top. Christian Ponder is still not at full strength for the Seminoles, and Va. Tech is just playing too well right now. I like the Hokies by 10.
Big East -
You can argue that it is parity all you want, but what the potential five-way tie in the Big East says most about the league is that it isn't good. No team in the Big East would scare their potential opponent in a BCS bowl. West Virginia's defense is smothering, but their offense is offensive. Pitt has some great running backs and a solid defense, but they have this tendency to not show up for games. UConn has been beaten badly by Michigan and Temple, and they're in line to win a spot in a BCS game. There is some reason for optimism here, as South Florida has really come on strong of late, and Skip Holtz seems to have that program headed in the right direction, and Syracuse and Louisville have made strides as well. Until those strides turn into leaps and bounds, the Big East will continue to be ridiculed for how weak it is, even if TCU is still a powerhouse when they join.
Big East week 14 picks - UConn over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Rutgers
Week 14 outlook - Both Pitt and West Virginia know what's at stake for them if they can win and get some help, and I don't expect either team to trip up. Cincy's seive like defense should make it easy for Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to rip them to shreds. Cincy can score, but that defense is just miserable. Rutgers has been fairly consistent this year, but they have been consistently bad. Greg Schiano seems to have no idea which quarterback gives his team the best chance to win. I think it's time to just give the ball to the freshman Chas Dodd and let him get some more experience. The kid has a big arm and he needs to be turned lose. Rutgers won't be a complete pushover, but West Virginia has been pretty good with their formula of getting a lead and sitting on it. I expect a low scoring game with WVU winning by a touchdown or 2. UConn is certainly the team with the best chance of losing out of the top 3 in the Big East. South Florida has been playing great football the past few weeks, including taking apart Miami a week ago. The Bulls are a really strong team, but Jordan Todman is a machine. If UConn continues to feed him the ball and Zach Frazer continues to make smart throws, this UConn team likely will get to their first ever BCS bowl game, which would be a great story even in this miserable year for the Big East. After starting 3-4, the Huskies have rolled up 4 straight wins, and I like them to notch a fifth this weekend. It should be a great game though, with the Bulls and B.J. Daniels coming up just short.
Big 12 -
What a shootout in the Bedlam game last Saturday night. Oklahoma survived a hard push from the Cowboys to get back in the game, and now the Sooners are slated to take on Nebraska for the Big 12 title. Despite not having an elite team, it was still a solid season for the Big 12 with Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all playing well above expectations. With that said, it comes down to one game for that BCS spot, and Nebraska-Oklahoma is the matchup everyone wanted in this game.
Big 12 title game pick - Oklahoma over Nebraska
Week 14 outlook - The Sooners just have too dynamic an offense for Nebraska to keep up. Even if the 'Huskers are able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and contain Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles in the passing game, it's still unclear if Taylor Martinez will play for Nebraska. Cody Green did a tremendous job against Colorado, but that wasn't the same caliber football team that the 'Huskers will see Saturday. I expect a close game, but I expect Oklahomka to win.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten is all wrapped up. Unless something unexplainable happens in the polls to move Ohio State or Michigan State past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings, the Badgers will be in the Rose Bowl, likely against TCU. Ohio State seems headed for a solid BCS bid as well, with MSU having to settle for the Capital One Bowl. It was a fun race, but a three-way tie seems unresolved to me. At least Bret Bielema can gloat about how running up the score helped his team get the Big Ten crown.
Big Ten week 14 pick - Illinois over Fresno State
Week 14 outlook - This pick is already wrong as Fresno won on Friday night. The Fighting Illini will still likely go bowling at 6-6, but it's a disappointing way to end the regular season for a team that showed real flashes of brilliance this season.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 race is already decided, but there is still a lot on the line this weekend. The Pac-10 decided that they should do their rivalry week a week after everyone else. Stanford and Cal are already done for the year, with Stanford a good bet for a BCS bowl, but everyone else still has their most hated rival yet. Oregon's Civil War against Oregon State is now the most important game on their schedule, because a win in that game would put them in the national title game. USC renews their rivalry with UCLA, and Washington heads into the Apple Cup game with Washington State with bowl eligibility at stake. The other game between Arizona and Arizona State was already played on Thursday, with the Sun Devils winning with a blocked extra point in double overtime. That's the kind of game that makes rivalries so fun, especially when the Sun Devils were heavy underdogs. It's a positive finish for a team that won't go bowling despite a 6-6 record, since they picked up two wins against the lowly FCS.
Pac-10 week 14 picks - USC over UCLA, Arizona over Arizona State, Washington over Washington State, Oregon over Oregon State
Week 14 outlook - I won't lie, I would have picked Arizona to beat Arizona State, which they did not do. USC should be able to beat UCLA, and possibly get Rick Neuheisel ousted as coach, but it looks like it will be Mitch Mustain under center again for the Trojans. Mustain struggled in the loss to Notre Dame a week ago, but UCLA has been in an absolute tailspin the past 6 weeks with just one win. Without much left to play for, it will be interesting to see if the Bruins get up for this game. Washington and Jake Locker head to Pullman to take on the WSU Cougars this week, and they are desperate for a win. They kept Cal from getting bowl eligible last week, and now can get themselves there with a win over the miserable Cougars. Jake Locker would love to get another game to showcase his skills to the pro scouts, and I think Washington wins this game easily. The Civil War should be intense this year. Oregon knows what's at stake, and head coach Chip Kelly seems to keep his guys focused every week. His constant defensive subs to keep his guys fresh seems like coaching genius, and the blur offense is simply not stoppable. The Ducks will shut down Jaquizz Rodgers, and it will be on Ryan Katz to move the ball with his arm, and I don't think he can move it enough to keep up with the Ducks. That Duck mascot better be ready to do a lot of pushups Saturday in Corvallis, because I don't think the Ducks are going to leave any doubt who the best team in the Pac-10 is.
SEC -
The Cameron Newton show that got put on in Tuscaloosa was jaw-dropping this past Saturday. Anyone watching that game felt like Alabama was just going to roll over the Tigers. These Tigers don't get rolled over. They have been behind in just about every game they have played, and not always small deficits. This game was different. The other big comebacks against Clemson, South Carolina, and Georgia were all at home. This game was in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide doesn't lose. They lost to Auburn. Cameron Newton continued to add to his legend with yet another impressive comeback, and he did it with his arm. Alabama shut down Newton's running game, but he responded with one of his best passing games of the season. The biggest reason for the demise of the Tide in this one was a failure to convert on scoring opportunities. Mark Ingram fumbled on what looked like a touchdown run, and Trent Richardson dropped a sure touchdown pass as the Tide scored only 6 points after the first quarter. Now it will take just one more win for Auburn to sew up a spot in the national title game.
SEC title game pick - Auburn over South Carolina
Week 14 outlook - This should be a very good game. Auburn will likely fall behind early as they usually do, but they will make offensive adjustments to right the ship. South Carolina is solid against the run, and they will make it tough for Newton and Onterio McCalebb to run early, much like Alabama did. The Gamecocks tend to struggle against the pass, and once Auburn sees that it will be tough sledding in the ground game, they will start to pick apart the South Carolina secondary. It will be critical for South Carolina to commit to the running game on offense, as Marcus Lattimore has been the biggest key to the team's success. The Gamecocks have been very focused the last couple of weeks with comfortable victories over Florida and Clemson, and they will need that focus against Auburn. I think Cam Newton has one more comeback left in him, and I think Auburn wins another one close, late.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State's run to a BCS game, and possible natinonal title shot came to a screeching halt last week as Nevada derailed Boise's season in overtime. Kyle Brotzman, Boise's kicker, missed two chip shot field goals, one for the win at the end of regulation and the other for a lead in overtime. It will be a memorable game for years, with great plays made on both sides, including a hail mary to Titus Young to set up the first missed field goal. Nevada overcame a 24-7 deficit with a dominant second half, and Boise's dream season came crumbling down. TCU wrapped up their 12-0 regular season and secured at least a spot in the Rose Bowl. The MAC title game was decided in shocking fashion as Northern Illinois was defeated in the final minute by Miami OH. The Huskies dominated MAC play and I would have picked them to win by 20 points, but the defense of the Redhawks shut down that vaunted Husky rushing attack. Conference USA will be decided in a title game between Central Florida and SMU after each team won last week. The only other league was decided last week by FIU defeating Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt.
Other week 14 picks - Central Florida over SMU, Troy over Florida Atlantic, Boise State over Utah State, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, Idaho over San Jose State, Hawaii over UNLV, Florida International over Middle Tennessee State
Week 14 outlook - I feel sorry for Utah State for drawing Boise the week after that letdown against Nevada. The Broncos will take their frustrations out on the Aggies and win by at least 30. Nevada should follow up their biggest win ever with an easy W over Louisiana Tech. Hawaii should be able to take down UNLV to create a three-way tie for the WAC title. SMU showed some struggles on defense last week against ECU, and Central Florida is a better team than the Pirates. I expect the Knights to win by two scores.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - They remain the unquestioned strongest conference.
2. Big Ten - Three Big Ten teams deserve to play in BCS bowls.
3. Pac-10 - Not as much depth as the Big 12, but 2 teams that are better than any in the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - A lot of solid teams, but no one jumps out as a powerhouse.
5. ACC - It took a while for the good teams to show up, but FSU and Virginia Tech should be a fun conference title game.
6. WAC - Boise's loss actually makes the league look better since Nevada only has one loss and Hawaii remains solid as well.
7. Mountain West - No one really wows you after TCU
8. Big East - As mediocre as the league is, it has started to make a strong comeback with runs by USF and UConn.
9. C-USA - Slightly above the MAC with the Huskies' slip up.
10. MAC - Miami OH as a league champ impresses no one.
11. Sun Belt - All you need to know: FIU must win their finale for the league champion to be above .500 overall.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 12-0 (prev. 1)
2. Auburn - 12-0 (4)
3. Oregon - 11-0 (2)
4. Wisconsin - 11-1 (5)
5. Ohio State - 11-1 (6)
6. Stanford - 11-1 (7)
7. Michigan State - 11-1 (9)
8. Arkansas - 10-2 (12)
9. Boise State - 10-1 (3)
10. Oklahoma - 10-2 (15)
11. Virginia Tech - 10-2 (13)
12. LSU - 10-2 (8)
13. Nebraska - 10-2 (14)
14. South Carolina - 9-3 (16)
15. Alabama - 9-3 (11)
16. Oklahoma State - 10-2 (10)
17. Nevada - 11-1 (19)
18. Texas A&M - 9-3 (17)
19. Missouri - 10-2 (18)
20. Florida State - 9-3 (20)
21. Northern Illinois - 10-2 (21) *before title game loss
22. Mississippi State - 8-4 (25)
23. West Virginia - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Maryland - 8-4 (UNR)
25. Utah - 10-2 (UNR)
Dropped from rankings: Iowa (22), North Carolina State (23), Arizona (24)
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