Welcome to rivalry week. Everything from the past eleven weeks of football has been leading to this Thanksgiving weekend. There are so many big games this weekend, it will hard to keep up with them all. The national title contenders will all be tested except TCU, several division and conference titles will be decided, such as the Big Ten, The ACC Atlantic, and both divisions of the Big 12, not to mention all of the fun rivalry trophries that will be won. Rivalries are what college football is all about. The pageantry and tradition of games like Michigan-Ohio State, Texas-Texas A&M, and Florida-Florida State keep the fan bases pumped. There are all kinds of cool rivalry names like the "Iron Bowl," the "Bedlam" game, The "Border War," and the "Backyard Brawl," as well as some not so cool names like the"Egg Bowl." The best rivalry game title of all might be "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate," the game between Georgia and Georgia Tech. But nothing tops the goofy trophies that these schools decide to play for in these rivalry games. Here's a list of some trophies that will be up for grabs this weekend:
The Land Grant Trophy - Michigan State vs. Penn State
The Old Oaken Bucket - Purdue vs. Indiana
The Golden Boot - Arkansas vs. LSU
The Beehive Boot - Utah vs. BYU
The Victory Bell - Duke vs. North Carolina
The Governor's Cup - Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Paul Bunyan's Axe - Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Hardee's Trophy - Clemson vs. South Carolina
The Bedlam Bell - Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
The Commonwealth Cup - Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
The Indian War Drum - Kansas vs. Missouri
The Jeweled Shillelagh - Notre Dame vs. USC
The Lone Star Showdown Trophy - Texas vs. Texas A&M
The Floyd of Rosedale - Iowa vs. Minnesota
Clearly some creativity has gone into coming up with these trophies, but my personal favorite is the Floyd of Rosedale. The Gophers and Hawkeyes play for a bronze pig that was named after Minnesota governor Floyd Olson in 1935, because he bet a prize hog against the governor of Iowa on a Hawkeye-Gopher football game and won. The hog was named Floyd for the governor, and the farm in Iowa that he came from was Rosedale. While this isn't the only strange trophy for football teams to play for, it certainly is a memorable one. Beyond all of the gimmicks of rivalry week, these games simply mean more to the players. Everyone gets a little more amped up when the hated rival comes to town. No underdog feels like they can't pull the upset. Jim Tressel said it best at his introductory press conference as head coach at Ohio State, when he boldly announced that it would be 310 days until the Buckeyes beat Michigan, and OSU hasn't lost that game since. Everyone knows how much the rivalry games mean. It can make a season to pull off that one big game against the rival. While not every game will be for a conference crown or a spot in the national title game, every single rivalry game will have a championship sort of feel to it, where nobody wants to lose.
A look around the country this week:
ACC -
It's official. Virginia Tech has won the coastal division and will play in the conference title game in Charlotte. Not too many expected that after a rough start in which the Hokies lost to Boise State and James Madison in a 6 day stretch. Most people believed the loss to JMU was a hangover from the Boise lost, as many experts have jokingly stated that the Hokies lost to Boise State twice. But that isn't what's important. The Hokies have rallied since the 0-2 start with 9 straight wins and likely a tenth over Virginia this week. Tyrod Taylor has really developed into the dual-threat quarterback that he was expected to be, and Ryan Williams has been good on the ground. As always, the Hokie defense has been the toughest unit in the conference and makes this team really tough to beat. North Carolina and Miami were the other contenders in the coastal division, but both had flaws that were too much to overcome and win the division. For North Carolina, it was the lack of depth and too few elite players caused by their roster being decimated by injuries and eligibility concerns. For Miami, it was a quarterback who struggled with turnovers, and then a shaky transition to backup Stephen Morris when Harris was hurt. As far as who Va Tech will play in Charlotte, that is still undecided. Maryland was the last team knocked out of the race with a loss to the Seminoles on Saturday. Now it's down to two and the Terps get a chance to play spoiler against NC State. If the Wolfpack beats Maryland, they will take the division crown and get to Charlotte, but if they lose, it will be the Seminoles making that trip. It's been a fun race for much of the season, and I expect Maryland and NC State to play a very entertaining game that keeps this race fun in its final week.
ACC week 13 picks - Virginia Tech over Virginia, North Carolina over Duke, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, North Carolina State over Maryland, Boston College over Syracuse, Florida State over Florida, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson, Miami over South Florida
Week 13 outlook - There are very few sure thing picks this week in the ACC. Virginia Tech and North Carolina should be close to being locks against Virginia and Duke, but with rivalry games anything is possible. Georgia's offense has been explosive, and Georgia Tech's has not. The Yellow Jackets have struggled at times to get after the quarterback, and if Aaron Murray has time to let his receivers get open, he should have a great game in a victory over a GT team that doesn't do well if they have to keep up in a shootout. Clemson has played some great games this season with impressive wins over NC State and Maryland, and a close loss to Auburn. They will need to play that well again if they want to beat the Gamecocks. South Carolina is playing better than they ever have under Steve Spurrier, and the biggest reason is offensive balance. Before this season, no South Carolina running back had gone over 1,000 rushing yards with Steve Spurrier as his coach, and only Cory Boyd broke 700 yards. Marcus Lattimore has given the team that dimension as he already has the school record for TDs in a season. Alshon Jeffery has been pretty explosive as a receiver, and as long as South Carolina continues to mix things up on offense, they should be able to take down Clemson in the "Battle for the Palmetto State." Boston College and Syracuse will do battle in a not so fan-friendly low scoring, smashmouth affair. The Eagles may not be winning pretty, but that defense has been fantastic. Syracuse has started to show some cracks the last few weeks, and Boston College will do just enough to win again. Vanderbilt and Wake Forest play in a game with little fanfare this week. Both have been miserable so far, but The Commodores have been miserable against better competition. Wake Forest's defense really doesn't make it hard on anyone to score points, and I expect that to include Vanderbilt in a sloppy win for the SEC's worst team. Florida State and Florida is always a close game, and Florida has been very good at times this season, but they really lack consistency. Every time they seem to have found a new wrinkle or x-factor for their offense, they get blown out the next week. Trey Burton went for 5 touchdowns against Kentucky early in the season as a wildcat qb, then 'Bama blew them out the following week. It was Jordan Reed lighting up the Vandy secondary two weeks ago, only to not really get used against South Carolina in a devastating loss. The Seminoles haven't been inconsistent. They had one bad game against a very good Oklahoma team, but other than that, they have showed up every week. They lost to NC State and UNC, but both were close games that the 'Noles could have won. I think that consistency is what carries FSU to another hard fought win while they wait to see the winner of the Md-NC State game. Miami and South Florida square off in an in-state matchup Saturday, and Jacory Harris might be back for the 'Canes. Stephen Morris does have a big arm and has played fairly well the past few games, but I would expect Harris to start if he can go. USF has been playing very well in the Big East over the past few weeks, but no one in the Big East is as good as Miami. B.J. Daniels will struggle against a very good Miami defense, and Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry will be tough to slow down. If not for Justin Blackmon, Hankerson would likely be the frontrunner for the Biletnikoff award for the nation's best receiver. That talent will be on full display as the 'Canes win by two touchdowns. In the big ACC game of the week, I think Maryland's woes against the top of the league continue in a loss to North Carolina State. The Terps are 7-4 overall, but they haven't exactly beat top competition. Their best wins all year are over Navy and Boston College, while they have lost to WVU, Florida State, Clemson and Miami. A lot of people are giving them a good chance to win this game, but I don't think it happens. I've believed for much of the year that the Wolfpack and Russell Wilson would be playing in Charlotte, and I still think that happens. I expect NC State to win by a touchdown.
Big East -
The Big East race is still a jumbled mess at this point, but it finally seems as though we can start to rule some teams out. Pittsburgh has managed to get to 4-1 in conference play, virtually eliminating all of the 3-loss teams in the league barring some collapse by everyone else. That pretty much leaves Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn as the only teams with a good chance of securing the league title and the automatic BCS bowl berth that comes with it. While most would agree that Pitt and WVU are the two most talented teams in the conference, it doesn't change the fact that UConn beat both of them head-to-head. Pitt is in the driver's seat with the one loss, but if they lose the Backyard Brawl to the Mountaineers this weekend, it will be UConn who has the most control in the Big East race. The Huskies face a Cincinnati team this week that has struggled to stop anyone, and then get the real test against South Florida next weekend. Wins in both of those games could leave the Huskies in the BCS, despite having 4 overall losses. While it's harrd to argue that any team from the Big East belongs in a BCS game, the rules aren't going to change between now and the end of the season.
Big East week 13 picks - Connecticut over Cincinnati, Miami over South Florida, Louisville over Rutgers, Boston College over Syracuse, West Virginia over Pittsburgh
Week 13 outlook - Miami should finish the season strong as their key offensive players get healthy and they should beat the Bulls. BC is on an absolute roll of late, and it's the defense that has been the driving force. Even without running back Montel Harris, that defense isn't going to let up this week, and the Eagles win a slugfest. UConn should be able to take care of Cincinnati. Randy Edsall has his Huskies playing very well the past few weeks with wins over the top 3 teams in the conference standings not named Connecticut. Cincy is not one of the top teams, and the Bearcat defense has allowed 30 or more points in every conference game but one, and a Louisville missed field goal is the only reason it wasn't all of them. I expect UConn to get to 30 as well, and handle the Bearcats by 10 points. Louisville needs a win over Rutgers to get bowl eligible, and the NCAA needs some of those 5-win teams to get number 6 this week. There are currently 64 bowl eligible teams in the FBS, and there are 70 bowl spots to be filled. Rutgers has really struggled so far this season, and although the Cardinals haven't exactly been special at 5-6, they have been competitive in every single game. Only Pitt beat Louisville by more than 8 points, and only Cincy and Oregon State have topped 30 points in a game against them. Rutgers, meanwhile, gave up 41 to Pitt and a whopping 69 to Cincinnati just a week ago. The Scarlet Knights have to feel a little demoralized after that game, and the powerful Louisville running game of Bilal Powell should be enough for the Cardinals to take down Rutgers this Friday and earn a bowl bid. The Backyard Brawl has a lot riding on it this week. Should the Panthers win, they are just a win over Cincy away from as BCS bowl game, but if West Virginia wins, The league becomes a three-way tie at the top as long as UConn doesn't fall to the Bearcats. Pitt would quickly become the long shot with their two losses being to the teams they are tied with. For the Panthers, this game is their season. They have really come along with a great running game led by Dion Lewis and Ray Graham, but West Virginia's defense has been like a brick wall at times this season. The Mountaineers are 4th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 13 points per game. Only Marshall has gone over 20 with 21 in an overtime loss to WVU. The Panthers haven't been quite as stingy, allowing almost 20 per game. You know the Mountaineers will keep Pitt from putting up a lot of points, but this game will come down to how many they can score themselves. Bill Stewart has to get a little more creative with the playcalling this week to get a couple of early scores. If WVU gets an early lead, it could be lights out for the Panthers, not just Friday, but for their season. I think West Virginia pulls out the win in a game where neither team is likely to get to 20 points, and it will live up the Backyard Brawl moniker.
Big 12 -
The final week in the Big 12 schedule is here, and neither division has been officially decided. Nebraska should feel pretty confident in the north, but after last week's game, and the injuries that Taylor Martinez has been playing through, beating Colorado this week is hardly a certainty. Bo Pelini seems convinced the refs are out to get him, and with the penalty yardage Big Red piled up last week, it's kind of tough to argue against him. The team set a school record for penalty yardage in a game, and some of the calls were questionable, and a couple were downright bad. If a few of those calls go their way, they might not have suffered the 9-6 loss to the Aggies. Missouri is their only competition for the north crown, and the Tigers are very unlikely to trip up against Kansas, so the pressure is on the 'Huskers to beat Colorado. The south title comes down to the bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys win the game, they would win the south outright, but with a loss and a Texas A&M win over Texas, it would become a 3-way tie to be decided by BCS rankings. If that were to happen, the Sooners seem like the favorites sitting 4 spots ahead of the Aggies, but if A&M is impressive against Texas, and OU wins sloppy, they just might get enough credit to move up. If the voters realize that the BCS rankings will determine the winner of a division, they might move their votes around to reward a team they feel is more deserving. A&M would have won 6 games in a row with a win over Texas, including a 14-point win over Oklahoma earlier this month, and if the division comes down to a vote between the Sooners and Aggies, that head-to-head win will no doubt carry weight with the voters. Regardless of how the weekend plays out, it has been a crazy year in the Big 12 with the team that was predicted last in the south (Oklahoma State) leading the division with just one game to play while the favorite to start the year (Texas) needs to beat A&M just to finish at .500 overall.
Big 12 week 13 picks - Texas A&M over Texas, Nebraska over Colorado, Missouri over Kansas, Kansas State over North Texas, Texas Tech over Houston, Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
Week 13 outlook - Missouri should roll over Kansas to keep the pressure on Nebraska this week. The Tigers can score in bunches, but few people realize how good the defense has been for Mizzou. Missouri is 7th in the country in scoring defense with just 16 points allowed per game, and Kansas isn't exactly explosive. The Tigers roll in this one easily. Kansas State closes out the year on a high note as they take on the terrible North Texas Mean Green. Daniel Thomas will not be very easy to stop in this one, and the Wildcats should win by 3 or 4 touchdowns without much trouble. Texas Tech needs to beat Houston to finish the season with a winning record, and since Houston has dropped three straight and is still playing without Case Keenum, I don't think the Red Raiders will struggle much on senior day in Lubbock. The Cougars will unfortunately avoid getting bowl eligible with the loss. Texas comes into the game with Texas A&M as losers of 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8, but they did take it to FAU a week ago. The Lone Star State Shootout will not be as easy a game for the Longhorns. Texas has really lacked much offensive firepower all season, and after shutting down Nebraska's high powered attack last weekend, Texas A&M should be looking forward to the sad Longhorn offense coming up next. Tannehill and the offense will do just enough to keep Texas at arm's length all day, especially since Cyrus Gray has really emerged during this winning streak. Gray has run for over 100 yards in every game of the 5-game streak, and if Texas sells out to stop him, Tannehill will make them pay. I like Texas A&M by 7 or 10 points. That brings us to the bedlam game. Both of these teams have really been explosive on offense and both have been led by a trio of skill players. For OU, its qb Landry Jones, hb DeMarco Murray, and wr Ryan Broyles. For the Pokes, the leaders have been Brandon Weeden, Kendall Hunter, and of course the unstoppable Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma likely has a slightly better defense than the Cowboys, but no matter what defenses OSU has faced, Blackmon, Weeden and Hunter just keep throwing up gaudy numbers. This is only the fourth time in 104 meetings in this rivalry that the Cowboys enter as the higher ranked team, and deservedly so. I expect Mike Gundy to play that up this week as he tries to ready his team for this game. Oklahoma State's extremely balanced offense should be enough to take down the Sooners, especially in Stillwater. The fan base will be as loud as they have ever been for the Cowboys, and it will undoubtedly be a little bit much for OU to deal with. This game will be a shootout, and I think the Sooners go down by a touchdown.
Big Ten -
Well we've said for weeks that each of the three teams at the top need one of the others to slip up to give them as sure conference title and BCS berth, but those stumbling blocks left in the way are just about gone. If this thing winds up in a tie with all three teams, it comes down the the BCS standings, which are awfully close at this point in the season. All of the ribbing that Bret Bielema has taken over running up the score certainly won't bother him if his Badgers are sitting highest in the rankings on selection Sunday. Wisconsin currently sits one spot ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS standings, and for anyone who doesn't think that his point padding ways are helping his team at all, consider that Wisconsin was three spots behind Ohio State in the initial BCS rankings just one day after handing the Bucks their first loss of the season. They have made up that ground with style points. With the teams sitting at 7th, 8th, and 10th in the rankings entering the weekend, each one of the teams must make a statement to get some votes for themselves, and then let the lobbying and begging for votes begin. If any of the top three are upset, this becomes a moot point, but things will feel a little unsettled if all three teams are 11-1. There isn't a whole lot more excitement this week as all the teams have their bowl situations settled with Illinois picking up win number 6 over Northwestern at Wrigley last week. The Big Ten this week is all about rivalry games, and the goofy trophies that go with them.
Big Ten week 13 picks - Ohio State over Michigan, Michigan State over Penn State, Wisconsin over Northwestern, Iowa over Minnesota, Purdue over Indiana
Week 13 outlook - Iowa should be able to win the Floyd of Rosedale trophy this season with an easy win over the Gophers. Minnesota needs to play with a fire in them to stay competitive, but the ground game with Adam Robinson and the aerial assaut with Stanzi, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt is just too much firepower for Minnesota to stop. Hawkeyes win easy. Purdue showed some fight last week against the Spartans, especially since they got quarterback Rob Henry back from injury. The team has been much better when Henry is in there with an upset over Northwestern, an easy win over Minnesota and a near win against Michigan State. Indiana is not a very good team, and I think the Old Oaken Bucket spends another year in West Lafayette. Wisconsin gets a Northwestern team that is just not the same without Dan Persa at the helm. The Wildcats also struggle to defend the run, as evidenced by Mikel LeShoure's 330 yard day against them at Wrigley. The Badgers will be chomping at the bit to run at that Wildcat front, even if John Clay doesn't go. Wisconsin only ran one pass play the entire second half last week against Michigan and still managed to score 24 points after the break en route to rolling up over 350 total rushing yards. Northwestern had better be ready for a lot of James White and Montee Ball this week. Evan Watkins, Persa's backup, should get accustomed to seeing J.J. Watt in the backfield all day when Northwestern has the ball, and I expect a little more criticism of Bret Beilema's point gouging ways. Ohio State and Michigan play in what many feel is the best rivalry in college football. The rivalry hasn't been quite as fun of late for Michigan fans, losers of 6 strainght in the series. A win this year would spoil the Buckeyes season and certainly ensure Rich Rod's job for another season. Michigan would love nothing more, despite the fact that the players are saying that it's just the next game. There's always some bad blood in this one, and this year will be no different. Ohio State will very likely come out on top in this one with Michigan's defense ranking near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every category. Ohio State has been a pretty decent offensive team, and that defense really only needs to make a few stops to feel like they will win the game. The emotion of the rivalry might help the Wolverines hang around a little bit longer, but the talent of the Buckeyes likely carries them to a two score victory. Michigan State gets PSU with more than just the Land Grant Trophy at stake this time. The Nittany Lions had been very good the past few weeks, except for the second half against the OSU Buckeyes last week. Michigan State hasn't been quite as sharp, struggling against several opponents the last few weeks including a bad loss to Iowa. MSU is due for a strong game. I expect the Spartans to really keep Evan Royster bottled up and do some things to fluster Matt McGloin in the passing game. The Spartan offense will get off to a quicker start by leaning on the running game with Baker, Bell, and Caper, and letting Kirk Cousins use the play-action game to pick apart Penn State. I think the Spartans win by 2 touchdowns and really keep this Big Ten race as tough to decide as ever.
Pac-10 -
There is very little to report in the Pac-10 this week. Oregon had a bye week while Stanford rolled over Cal. Both teams just keep on winning at the top of the conference, but the rest of the league has really started to look bad. With USC ineligible for postseason play, it is actually possible that only three Pac-10 teams get bowl eligible despite 6 bowl slots to fill. Making it even more complicated, if Stanford were to get a BCS bowl berth along with Oregon, that would make it only one more team eligible for a bowl game with 5 spots left to fill. That team would be Arizona. There are a couple hopefuls who could break that up for the conference by getting to 6 wins, but there are no locks. California gets Washington this week, and with Brock Mansion still at quarterback, it's no guarantee that Cal gets the job done against Locker and the Huskies. Oregon State is also just one win away, but still has Stanford and Oregon left on the schedule. Neither of those games are likely wins for a Beaver team that lost to UCLA and Washington State. The Huskies and Bruins also remain alive in the bowl hunt at 4-6, but both need to win out to get there. U-Dub still has Cal and Wazzu on the slate, while UCLA has to beat Arizona State and USC. All in all, this conference is ugly after the top 3. Traditional power conferences just don't have the same power they once had, and the Pac-10 helps to show that, just like the Big East.
Pac-10 week 13 picks - Arizona State over UCLA, Oregon over Arizona, California over Washington, USC over Notre Dame, Stanford over Oregon State
Week 13 outlook - Cal is at home this week, and coming off a great performance against Oregon, and playing to earn a bowl bid. I think the Golden Bears find a way, but I don't expect a rout as long as Kevin Riley is not playing. Jake Locker will keep the Huskies around for much of the game, but I think they come up short against Cal. UCLA hasn't been very good without Kevin Prince as it is, and now backup Richard Brehaut is banged up. That won't make the offense better. ASU needs this win for a little bit of pride, and I expect the Sun Devils to get it in a 10 point win. USC got throttled by Oregon State last week, but that was just the game they always struggle with. I feel like they will get back to playing solid, balanced football this week as Tommy Rees finally has a rough outing for Notre Dame. The Irish have been better the past two weeks, but I think USC gets up for the rivalry game and extends their winning streak to an all-time high 8 in a row over the Irish. If Matt Barkley doesn't play, the Irish probably pull off the win, but I think he will take the field and help keep the Jeweled Shillelagh in California. Stanford takes on a dangerous Oregon State team in Palo Alto this weekend. The Beavers may only be 5-5, but they have played well in some big games including a rout of USC last Saturday. Jaquizz Rodgers is a big-time playmaker for the Beavers and will have to be a big part of the gameplan if the Beavers want to pull the upset. Stanford is going to be much too strong for the Beavers though. As long as Stanford wins this game, they are very likely to get a spot in a BCS game as an at-large team, and there is no way Jim Harbaugh would let his team overlook this opponent with that much at stake. The Cardinal are very physical up front on both sides of the ball, and they will push the Beavers around and win by multiple touchdowns. Oregon must win again this week to stay in the hunt for the national title, and Arizona is the toughest opponent left on the schedule. The Ducks were held to just 15 points two weeks ago in Berkeley, and a lot of football pundits have talked about the Bears having created the blueprint for stopping the Ducks' blur offense. They loaded the box against the run and played a lot of man-to-man defense and didn't really switch things up when the Ducks ran the no-huddle. It worked fairly well, but the Ducks will make adjustments this week. Darron Thomas needs to be more crisp with his passes when his receivers beat man-to-man coverage, and he needs to be more willing to run the ball if the defense focuses on LaMichael James. If Thomas has success early, the Wildcats will likely adjust the defense, which will open up the things that Oregon normally likes to do in the running game. With this game at home in Autzen Stadium instead of on the road at Cal, I expect the Duck offense to bounce back and roll up the points again in beating Arizona by a couple of scores.
SEC -
This week in the SEC is all about the Iron Bowl. Sure, LSU has a big game to stay in contention for a BCS game against Arkansas, and Tennessee has a big rivalry game against Kentucky with a shot to become the 9th SEC team eligible for a bowl game, and Georgia could also get there as a possible 10th, but it's still all about the Iron Bowl. Both division titles have been decided, so this week is all about the national title picture. Auburn needs to beat Alabama to feel safe for now. There has been a lot of talk that the Tigers could lose to Auburn and still get back to the title game with a win over South Carolina in the SEC championship, but I wouldn't want to leave it up to the voters if I had a loss and there were 3 unbeaten teams left. Alabama enters the game as the favorite despite the worse overall record, but it's Auburn with the most on the line.
SEC week 13 picks - Georgia over Georgia Tech, Kentucky over Tennessee, Mississippi State over Ole Miss, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, LSU over Arkansas, Alabama over Auburn
Week 13 outlook - I've already gone over a few of these games in the other conferences, so I won't spend much time on those. The Georgia offense will be enough to beat GT, Florida State's consistency carries them past an up and down Gator team, and Vanderbilt is slightly less miserable than Wake Forest and should beat the Deacs. South Carolina's balance on offense is the key difference in this year's team that allows them to sustain success and beat a very solid Clemson team. That leaves us with just the conference games to talk about. Tennessee never loses to Kentucky. Never. In fact, the Vols have beaten the Wildcats 25 consecutive times, the longest active streak in the nation between two teams. Add in the fact that Tennessee has won 3 straight games in very impressive fashion after a 2-6 start to keep bowl hopes alive, and everything points to the Volunteers beating Kentucky again to get to that 6th win and bowl eligibility. With all of that said, I like Kentucky to win this game. Derek Dooley has not been trying to get his players to treat this game like it's bigger than any other they've played, and the problem is that it is indeed bigger. I guarantee Joker Phillips is trying to fire up his players to finally end this streak of losing to the Vols, and to do so in Knoxville would be even better. Tennessee has certainly been susceptible to giving up some points against good offenses, and Kentucky has shown an ability to score with almost 35 points per game. This game will also be a big one for Randall Cobb, who grew up near Knoxville but wasn't offered a scholarship by UT until he had already decided to go to Kentucky. I expect Cobb to show the Vols what they could have had with a monster game, and I expect Rocky Top to run blue in a shattering defeat for Tennessee. The Egg Bowl has a different feel to it this year, as it is the Bullogs of Mississippi State who come in as the favorites and the coaches seem to be taking shots at each other through the media. Ole Miss would like to believe they can win this game, but I really think the Bulldogs need a big win here to cement this season as a huge breakthrough year for the program. Ole Miss has already had a poor season at just 4-7 overall, and while a rivalry win here would be a nice high note to go out on, MSU just needs it more. The Rebel defense is not very good, and I expect Vick Ballard and Chris Relf to establish the run early, and Mississippi State to come out on top in Oxford to finish the year at .500 in SEC play for just the second time since 2000. It would also be the first consecutive Egg Bowl wins for MSU since 1998-99. LSU and Arkansas play in the only SEC game that holds a candle to the Iron Bowl this week. The battle for the Golden Boot should be heated , as both teams feel as though a BCS bowl is not out of reach with a win. The Tigers have had so many near losses and narrow escapes, it's hard to keep track at this point. From Tennessee to Florida to Alabama to Ole Miss, they just keep finding ways to pull out the close games with a smothering defense and gutsy play calling. Arkansas has been a different story. The Razorbacks have an explosive balanced offense as Ryan Mallett has thrown for twice as many yards as the two LSU quarterbacks combined, and top Arkansas running back Knile Davis has more yards on the ground than LSU's leading rusher Stevan Ridley. That's a lot of firepower for any defense to slow down, but LSU should be up to the task. While the numbers show balance for the Hogs O, it really is driven by Mallett and the passing game, and the LSU D ranks fourth in the FBS in fewest passing yards allowed per game. That stat becomes even more intimidating when you realize that Greg Childs is out for the rest of the season and won't be there to catch passes from Mallett. LSU's Patrick Peterson is the best cover corner in the country, and he will likely take Joe Adams out of the game all by himself. That makes it much easier for the rest of the Tiger defense to focus on Knile Davis, D.J. Williams, and Jarius Wright. Mallett doesn't have the athletic ability to make plays with his legs, so it seems unlikely that Arkansas will be able to roll up the offensive numbers they are accustomed to. On the other side of the ball, the Hogs have shown a penchant for giving up some big plays, most notably against Auburn. Arkansas' defense has allowed 20 or more points in all but 4 games this year, and the LSU defense has only allowed 20 or more 4 times. Something has to give in this one, and I always go with a great defense over a great offense. I like LSU in another tight finish. That brings us to the Iron Bowl. This is quite possibly the biggest game left on the schedule until the national title game. Auburn needs this game, but Alabama is downright unbeatable in Tuscaloosa. They don't even struggle at home. Cameron Newton will be every bit the force he's been all year in this game, but Alabama still may be too much. Greg McElroy is a great field general, Julio Jones is a phenom at wideout, and both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson seem fully healthy headed into this game. We've all seen the Auburn defense get torched this year against Arkansas and Georgia, and to a degree against Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They just always seem to have enough offense to overcome those defensive woes. Alabama is not the team to let them get away with that. The pressure will be on Newton to make plays in the passing game against this young Tide secondary because 'Bama will do everything they can to slow down Newton and McCalebb running the ball. Nick Fairley and the Auburn defensive front also must do a decent job of slowing down 'Bama's run game and force McElroy into third and longs, or it will be a long day for them also. The Crimson Tide simply want to keep the Tiger defense on the field as long as possible, and keep Cam Newton watching from the sidelines. If they can pull that off, they will pull off this win at home. I like the Tide by a touchdown in a game for the ages.
Best of the Rest -
Well, I'm running out of reasons to talk about Boise State and TCU since all they can do is continue to dominate and wait for the teams above them to trip up. Boise put a 55-0 thumping on Fresno State last Friday but still sits behind TCU in the BCS standings. This week may change that. The gap has been shrinking over the last few weeks, and the Horned Frogs get a terrible New Mexico team on Saturday while Boise draws no. 19 Nevada who has only lost once all year. Even if both teams win convincingly, Boise may jump TCU due to the bump in strength of schedule. Then it's on someone ahead to fall. Both teams have legitimate arguments for why they belong in the title game, but one that might get the Broncos a leg up is the point that they beat a TCU team with mostly the same players a year ago in the Fiesta Bowl. Don't be surprised to hear Chris Petersen or other people at Boise make mention of that over the next couple weeks if a national title spot is at stake. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, Ohio needs only to beat Kent State this weekend to set up a MAC title game showdown with very impressive Northern Illinois. If the Bobcats lose, it will be the Redhawks of Miami OH who get the east crown. Conference USA has a wild weekend ahead with neither division settled and 5 teams still vying for the league title. The race in the west is simple. SMU will win the division with either a win over East Carolina or a Tulsa loss to Southern Miss. Tulsa must win and see the Mustangs lose to steal the division title away. Over in the east, Central Florida can make things easy by beating a Memphis team that has already lost 10 times. If the Tigers pull the shocker, things could get messy. Both Southern Miss and ECU are still alive here, with both needing help from the other. ECU would actually need Southern Miss to beat Tulsa and beat SMU themselves to create a 3-way tie for the division. With a 4-1 record in the division, the Pirates would own the tiebreaker. Southern Miss needs almost the same scenario, just with an ECU loss to the Mustangs. The Eagles beat UCF and would have the edge in a two team tie with them. I told you it was complicated. Luckily, Central Florida is very unlikely to lose and that would make the other scenarios useless. The only other league left is the Sun Belt, where FIU would seal up the conference title and a bowl bid with a win over Arkansas State this week. The Troy Trojans hold out hope that FIU could lose to both Arkansas State and and MTSU to open the door for them to take the conference, but it seems pretty far-fetched. The Panthers have been very solid in Sun Belt play. A few other things to watch are teams fighting for bowl eligibility. Here are a list of the biggest non-AQ teams that could get there this week: Western Michigan, Houston, Troy, FIU, and Idaho.
Other week 13 picks - Boise State over Nevada, TCU over New Mexico, Ohio over Kent State, Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Central Florida over Memphis, SMU over East Carolina, Southern Miss over Tulsa, Florida International over Arkansas State, Troy over Western Kentucky, Western Michigan over Bowling Green, Fresno State over Idaho, Utah over BYU, San Diego State over UNLV, UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette, Buffalo over Akron, Toledo over Central Michigan, Marshall over Tulane, Hawaii over New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State over Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech over San Jose State, UAB over Rice
Week 13 outlook - Boise-Nevada is the most important game here. The Broncos haven't been tested yet, and I see no reason to believe Nevada will be the team to knock them off. Colin Kaepernick has been tremendous for the Wolf Pack, but Boise State's defense has been lights out against everyone. Kellen Moore and the offense haven't really had to play a fourth quarter in a while, and the Nevada defense is unlikely to change that. This game should be a little closer than the past couple over Hawaii and Fresno, but I still expect the Broncos to win by at least 24 points. TCU will have to win by 50 to keep pace with Boise since their opponent is much weaker than Nevada. But against the lowly New Mexico Lobos, that might be more than just possible, it might be likely. Ohio will not trip this week against a pretty poor Golden Flash team, and they should earn another trip to the MAC title game. In that title game, they will meet Northern Illinois, who will likely be fresh off a blowout win over Eastern Michigan, probably about a 30 point margin of victory. Central Florida will throttle Memphis to take the mystery out of the C-USA East race. ECU and SMU should play in a crazy shootout, as East Carolina has given up 40 or more more points in 3 of their wins as well as all 5 of their losses. SMU's balance on offense will be the difference as the Mustangs will win the west with the victory and set up a conference title game against UCF. Since the SMU game is 4 and a half hours before Tulsa and Southern Miss square off, it will be known by kickoff that the Mustangs clinched the division title. That will take all of the life out of the Golden Hurricane, and USM is still inspired to play well in honor of their teammates wounded in a shooting. I expect USM to win by 2 touchdowns if SMU wins early, and by a field goal or so if the Mustangs lose. FIU should wrap up the Sun Belt against Arkansas State as they have really owned the other teams in conference play. Troy will beat Western Kentucky with ease, but it won't matter for the conference title since FIU will win, but it will get Troy bowl eligible. Western Michigan will get bowl eligible with a win over Bowling Green, but Idaho will fall short of 6 wins against Fresno State, and Houston will do the same against Texas Tech. UL-Monroe will also get win number 6 in a rivalry win over UL-Lafayette, but they need some other teams to lose to make sure they can't be left out of a bowl game. San Diego State should recover nicely from a heartbreaking loss to Utah a week ago with UNLV up next, and Utah is back on track and should beat BYU to get to 10 wins on the year. In the only other game that means something this week, I expect Buffalo to top Akron and keep the Zips as the only winless team in the FBS.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - Half of the conference is ranked and 5 teams still feel like they have a shot at a BCS bowl game. The talent at the top and the depth is incredible. Throw in that both Auburn and LSU feel like they could still win the national title and the SEC is still firmly at the head of the class.
2. Big Ten - The power conference of the midwest is still the next in line with great talent at the top. The depth is thinning a little with Northwestern losing Dan Persa, but there are 8 bowl eligible Big Ten squads.
3. Big 12 - While the Big 12 has lost all hope of a national title contender, Oklahoma State is still a fantastic one-loss team and there are several very good teams including Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
4. ACC - The Pac-10 is certainly better at the top with Oregon and Stanford, but Va Tech provides a legit BCS team while FSU, NC State and Miami provide better depth than the Pac-10 has right now.
5. Pac-10 - When the 4th best possible bowl team in you league is 5-6 Cal, depth is a problem. Things would be better if USC weren't banned from playing in the postseason this year.
6. Mountain West - There are still more quality teams in the Mountain West than the WAC. Fresno and Hawaii don't measure up to SDSU and Air Force.
7. WAC - The WAC is still better than the Big East despite not matching up with the MWC.
8. Big East - West Virginia, UConn, and Pitt are all coming off of wins and all seem better than the top of C-USA right now.
9. Conference-USA - UCF's loss to Southern Miss makes it hard to put this league ahead of a Big East that has had more consistency of late.
10. MAC - Things are settled at the top for the most part, but things are ugly at the bottom.
11. Sun Belt - This really has the feel of an FCS conference. No one is bowl eligible yet, and mathematically, no one has to end up that way.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 11-0 (prev. 1)
2. Oregon - 10-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 10-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 11-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 10-1 (5)
6. Ohio State - 10-1 (6)
7. Stanford - 10-1 (8)
8. LSU - 10-1 (9)
9. Michigan State - 10-1 (10)
10. Oklahoma State - 10-1 (12)
11. Alabama - 9-2 (11)
12. Arkansas - 9-2 (13)
13. Virginia Tech - 9-2 (14)
14. Nebraska - 9-2 (7)
15. Oklahoma - 9-2 (15)
16. South Carolina - 8-3 (19)
17. Texas A&M - 8-3 (21)
18. Misouri - 9-2 (17)
19. Nevada - 10-1 (18)
20. Florida State - 8-3 (24)
21. Northern Illinois - 9-2 (20)
22. Iowa - 7-4 (16)
23. North Carolina State - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Arizona - 7-3 (25)
25. Mississippi State - 7-4 (22)
Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (23)
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