2011 AL Central preview

I've already explained how I feel the AL East will play out this season, and next up is the American League Central division. The Twins, Tigers and White Sox have all had success over the past few seasons, but here's how I see them stacking up this year:

1. Minnesota Twins

2. Chicago White Sox (wildcard)

3. Detroit Tigers

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Cleveland Indians

1. Minnesota Twins: The Twinkies had an interesting 2010 season. They lost closer Joe Nathan for the season in the spring and former AL MVP Justin Morneau for most of the second half but still managed to win the central division. Despite some changes in the offseason, I expect them to win the division again in 2011. The lineup lost a couple of the "pirahnas" that frustrated Ozzie Guillen and opposing managers over the past few seasons. Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert are no longer with the club, and while none of them are names that scare an opposing pitcher, they execute very well in clutch situations like putting a ball in play on the hit-and-run and not striking out in big at-bats. Despite those losses, the Twins have a pretty impressive lineup. Yongsters Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, as well as overseas import Tsuyoshi Nishioka should fill the scrapper roles well. Denard Span is still around to set the table, and the biggest plus for this team is that Justin Morneau should be healthy. Joe Mauer, Mike Cuddyer and Jim Thome are no slouches with the stick either, and this is still the type of team that can grind down anyone. The rotation is far from dominant, but Liriano can be, and Pavano, Duensing, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn are going to make you earn every run. They don't walk many hitters, so you will have to go up swinging. The bullpen is a spot of concern, as the team has lost Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch, who were all fantastic last year. But Pat Neshek has been back from surgery for a full season now and should find his old form, and Joe Nathan seems to be healthy and ready to return to his dominant form as well. Throw in Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, and the bullpen is still one to be reckoned with. The Twins have a very solid, balanced team, and Ron Gardenhire always gets more wins out of his teams than the talent says he should, so I think they hold off Chicago and Detroit for the title.

2. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox season will be determined by their starting rotation. The lineup can hit. Gordon Beckham will bounce back this season, and Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers barring injury. Carlos Quentin can hit 30+, but he's injury prone. Alex Rios is back to the potential 30-30 terror he can be, and Paul Konerko just seems ageless. On top of all those guys, they have the speed of Juan Pierre atop the lineup, who stole the most bases he has in a season last year despite being 32 years old. So clearly, this team will score some runs and scare some pitchers, especially in their hitters' park on the southside. The starting pitching is a major uncertainty. Mark Buehrle is as steady as they come, even if he is not spectacular. John Danks has really improved as the seasons have passed, and he may be the best pitcher on the team. The questions start with Gavin Floyd. Floyd was fantastic a couple years ago, but he has regressed the last 2 years. He needs to bounce back to be a top-3 starter in this rotation. Edwin Jackson has been an enigma the last two years. He was downright dominant for the Tigers in the first half of 2009. He faded down the stretch and has been traded twiced since the end of the '09 season. He did fit in a no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, but he has not found the rhythm that made him good for a 3 month stretch. If he can figure out how to get back to the form that made him so strong for the Tigers the first half of '09. Jake Peavy would give the team a big lift if he can give them anything at all. Phil Humber will open the year in the 5th spot, but it will likely be a revolving door until Peavy returns, if he does at all. I expect Floyd and Jackson to be better this season than last, but not return to the great levels they have pitched at in the past. The lineup is very good, and the bullpen should be as well, and the improvements from Floyd and Jackson should be enough to make this team the wild card winner. The Yankees are a better team, but they don't get the benefit of playing Kansas City and Cleveland a whole lot this season. Matt Thornton should be a much better closer than Bobby Jenks was, and Jesse Crain and Chris Sale should be great as well.

3. Detroit Tigers: This squad has been very good over the past couple of seasons, but they never seem to finish strong and it always seems to be their undoing. The lineup has been shuffled around a lot over the past two years, and what's left just doesn't match up with what the Sox and Twins can run out there every day. Miguel Cabrera is a legitimate MVP candidate, but the rest of the lineup is a bit of a patchwork. Alex Avila, Will Rhymes and Ryan Raburn have never been everyday players, but each is slated to start for the Tigers this year. Jhonny Peralta was very solid after coming over to Detroit last season, but over his career he has never been a good hitter for average. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch only have one season of big league experience each, and Magglio Ordonez is over the hill. Throw in that Brandon Inge is a career .237 hitter, and it would take monstrous seasons from Cabby and Victor Martinez just to keep this offense scoring runs. I would love to see the Tigers win the division, but the offense just isn't good enough to keep pace without a dominant rotation. They have a dominant top 2 with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (who was amazing after being sent down last season), but the rest is just ok. Rick Porcello has to take a huge step forward, Brad Penny needs to be very solid, and Phil Coke has to pull a C.J. Wilson in his move to starting for this team to be as good as the Twins. I think Penny will be solid in Comerica, and Porcello at least takes a small step forward, but I really question moving Coke out of the bullpen. He was tremendous out of the pen against lefties last season, and moving him to the rotation leaves a hole in his spot in the pen while also giving you an unproven big league starter. Jose Valverde is lights out in the ninth, but the rest of the pen is not as solid. Joel Zumaya always gets hurt, Ryan Perry is yet to put his great stuff together with good control, and despite his great season for the Rays last year, Joaquin Benoit's career numbers do nothing to suggest that he will repeat last season's performance. It all adds up to far too many questions to be a playoff team. I think Leyland gets them off to a good start, but a fade down the stretch leaves them behind the Twinks and White Sox and hoping to get better for 2012.

4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals lineup is chock full of young, talented boppers, and has a few more just waiting to get called up from the minors, but the pitching rotation, which traded away Zach Grienke, has more question marks than the Riddler's leotard. When your ace is Jeff Francis, who went 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA last year, there are few ways to put a positive spin on it. Francis, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Vin Mazzaro make up the rotation that despite having quite a few young guys, has very little upside. If each guy has a career year, the Royals still have only the 4th best rotation in the division. The bullpen isn't a whole lot better, but Joakim Soria is just plain filthy. He's probably been the most consistent closer in baseball not named Mariano Rivera, but the team just doesn't win enough for him to put up big save numbers. Robinson Tejada was strong last year and Jeremy Jeffries has a powerful young arm that can really give this pen a boost. Billy Butler is certainly the team's best hitter, but there are other bats around. Kila Ka'aihue has a powerful bat and will start at first base. Alex Gordon has a ton of talent, but hasn't put it all together yet. Alcides Escobar was a big part of the Grienke trade, and has the ability to steal 20+ bases and hit over .300 with above average defense. The rest of the lineup is filled with role players like Jason Kendall, Mike Aviles and Melky Cabrera, but they have two great young hitters waiting to get a big league shot in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, as well as speedster Lorenzo Cain waiting for a shot at center field. The Royals will be abysmal to start the season, but as they send the young hitters up to the bigs, and some very talented pitchers currently in the minors as well, the team will improve and manage to finish ahead of the Indians at season's end.

5. Cleveland Indians: The Royals rotation is probably the worst in the division, but the Indians aren't far behind. Fausto Carmona is the ace, and he is coming off of a resurgent season, but the rest of the group is unproven. They do have a little more upside than the Royals staff, but they have less talent in the minors on the mound. The little more upside they have is almost all in Carlos Carrasco. Scouts feel like he has the stuff to be a very effective starter, but he has struggled to put it all together. The rest of the rotation is made up of Mitch Talbot, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, none of whom will frighten an AL lineup. The bullpen was decent last year, with Chris Perez being a very talented pitcher to handle ninth inning duties. Tony Sipp could be very good if he can keep the ball in the yard, and Rafael Perez is coming off a strong season and youngster Vinny Pestano had ridiculous K:BB ratios in the minors last year and could be very solid this season as well. If the bullpen can perform above expectations, this team will have a shot to finish above the AL Central basement, but if they struggle, they could land the Indians with the worst record in the league. The lineup needs some veterans who have been injured and ineffective to come back in a big way. Travis Hafner has fallen apart since hitting all those grand slams a few seasons ago, and Grady Sizemore can't keep himself on the field. I see no reason to expect sudden bounce backs from those two, so it will be on the reliable Shin-Soo Choo and a bunch of unreliable youngsters to carry the offense. Carlos Santana should be great this year, but he is coming off a major injury that ended his 2010 season. Asdrubal Cabrera and Orlando Cabrera give the team a veteran middle infield that is less than impressive, and Jack Hannahan has no business starting on a big league club. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley need to have a really good year to keep the Indians from being one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. I don't see them taking the step forward they need to, and the Indians will be bad all season long. They may be able to keep pace with KC for fourth in the early part of the year, but once the Royals get their talented kids up to the bigs, they will pull away and make Cleveland the worst team in the division.

2011 AL East preview

The snow is melting, the weather is warming up, and the calendar is about to turn to April. That means one thing: It's baseball season. It's been an interesting offseason and spring to be sure, but you never know how the year is going to play out until it gets going. That doesn't mean I'm not going to try. With that said, I'm going to take a division by division look at the upcoming season, complete with my predicitions for the final standings in each division and how the playoffs will play out. It'll never be accurate, because there are countless twists and turns that the season will take that are yet to be seen, but here is my AL East preview for the 2011 season:

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Tampa Bay Rays

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Toronto Blue Jays

1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox spent the entire offseason loading up on offense to try and keep up with the Yankees all-star lineup. Both teams are stacked from top to bottom on offense, but the Red Sox rotation is a little bit deeper and more talented than that of the Yankees. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to replace Victor Martinez and Mike Cameron really gives this team one of the top 2 or 3 offensive clubs in the league. Even if Jacoby Ellsbury isn't healthy, this team can still put Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro at the top of the order and still have great tablesetters for boppers Crawford, Youkilis, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez. Basically, the Red Sox are gonna score a lot of runs, and you're gonna have to score a lot to beat them. Jon Lester is a true ace at the top of the rotation, and Clay Buchholz is developing into a very good starter as well. A lot of the team's pitching success will hinge on bounceback seasons by John Lackey and Josh Beckett, and I think both guys will be much better this season. It would be nice to see Dice-K bounce back as well, and he has had a good spring, but rubber-armed ageless wonder Tim Wakefield is still around with his knuckleball as an insurance policy. I think the team would be better served to start Jason Varitek behind the plate because he can handle a pitching staff better, but it looks as though Jarrod Saltalamacchia will open the season as the starter. The bullpen is chock-full of flame throwers after adding Bobby Jenks to Daniel Bard and Papelbon for the late innings. A lot of people expect Papelbon to fall off after his worst season as a closer last year, but I think the skills are still there. I believe he gets back to being an elite closer this year with Bard an elite set up guy. These guys should absolutely win the AL East, and likely will have the best record in the American League at season's end. They are loaded in the lineup, in the bullpen, and the rotation has the talent to be the best in the division if Beckett and Lackey return to form.

2. New York Yankees: I have tried many times over the years to make the bold prediction that the New York Yankees will miss the playoffs, and I once again make that fool's gamble this year. The Yankees offense has just as much talent as Boston's. Robinson Cano was a legitimate MVP candidate a season ago. A-Rod is still A-Rod, even if his numbers weren't superhuman last year, and Mark Texiera won't hit below .270 again this season. The Yanks still boast Brett Gardner and the aging Derek Jeter to set the table for the middle of the lineup, and Jorge Posada finally gets a rest for his knees with a move to DH. All signs point to this team scoring just as many runs as the BoSox this year, but the pitching rotation is the key difference. CC Sabathia is as sure a thing as there is in this league, but there are question marks throughout the rest of the staff. Can Phil Hughes duplicate his numbers from a season ago? Can A.J. Burnett get over the awful 2010 campaign he posted? Can Freddy Garcia still be a productive major league starter? And can Ivan Nova do enough in the fifth spot with his limited experience to stay there? I think most of the answers to those questions are negative. Burnett hasn't been any good in about 5 years, Freddy Garcia is washed up, and I expect at least some regression from Phil Hughes. Nova could be solid, but the rest of the group is really going to struggle, which will make what should be a solid bullpen a little overworked. Joba, David Robertson and Damaso Marte will need to pitch outstanding for this team to have a shot at the east division title. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are lights out in the 8th and 9th, but the key will be getting the lead to them. I love the lineup, and I like the bullpen a lot, but I really don't like the rotation outside of CC. I think the Yanks come up just short in the wild card race after finishing behind Boston in the East.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are not the same team that they have been over the past couple of seasons. They lost superstar Carl Crawford to division rival Boston and workhorse starter Matt Garza and slugging first baseman Carlos Pena to the Chicago Cubs. This team is still young and athletic, but the lineup isn't as strong as it was a season ago. Evan Longoria is one of the best young players in the league, and Manny Ramirez looks set to become a menace to opposing pitchers once again after signing with the Rays. They may have lost a lot of speed with Crawford's departure, but B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist and prospect Desmond Jennings can all run. One of the big keys to the lineup will be how well Dan Johnson swings the bat in place of Pena. He hit a ton of homers in the minors a season ago, but that power has to translate to the big league level. Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist need to provide a little pop as well, and Manny and Johnny Damon need to revert to their past form to help get this lineup to keep up with Boston and New York. One thing with this team that doesn't seem to be a question mark is the pitching rotation. David Price, Jeff Neimann and Wade Davis make for a very dangerous young core, and Jeremy Hellickson is the next possible breakout starter. Andy Sonnastine provides a little insurance as well. If James Shields gets back to the way he pitched before last season, the rotation is the one place this team can be as good or better than the BoSox and Yanks. The bullpen isn't going to match up, however. Tampa lost a lot of peices in the pen in the offseason, including closer Rafael Soriano and middle men Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour. Kyle Farnsworth is far from an ideal closer, and other options Jake McGee and Joel Peralta are unproven. J.P. Howell has closing experience, but is out for the first couple months of the season. It all adds up to a patchwork bullpen that could be a serious achilles heel for the Rays. This team has been very good over the past 3 or 4 years, but they may have a hard time keeping pace this season after some major roster changes. Look for them to keep Baltimore and Toronto behind them, but the playoffs are unlikely.

4. Baltimore Orioles: The O's got a huge lift down the stretch last season after Buck Showalter was hired as manager, and he has made waves this spring by ripping the Red Sox and Yankees in the media. All of that makes Baltimore an intriguing team this year, but even with an infusion of veteran position players, this team is still too young on the mound to be a force in the AL East. The lineup should be as good as it's been in years, with Derrek Lee's veteran leadership, Vlad Guerrero's potent bat, and Mark Reynold's swing-for-the-fences approach, this offense should be fun to watch. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters should continue to improve at the dish while still being good young defensive players. Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts are always steady, and this team believes in itself after the way they finished a season ago. The pitching staff has a lot of potential, but it is very raw. Brian Matusz is the ace of the staff as far as stuff goes, but Jeremy Guthrie is more consistent. Justin Duchscherer is a veteran presence trying to come back from some injury troubles, and young guys Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman are all trying to take the next step. The bullpen has its issues as well, and all of the pitching uncertainty adds up to a 4th place finish in the east. Kevin Gregg is far from a great closer, and the guys behind him don't inspire much confidence. If the young rotation matures this year and the veteran lineup gels, the O's could push for third, but it seems unlikely.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays were an unexpected .500 team for much of the year last year. They had a ton of homeruns and a ton of strikeouts at the plate, and that likely won't change much this season. Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista are all boom or bust hitters who swing for the fences with little regard for batting average. They have changed things up a little with speedster Rajai Davis being inserted at the top of the order, but there is little discipline at the plate in the rest of the lineup. They will hit a lot of homeruns again, but the lineup will stall at times. The pitching takes a big step back with Shaun Marcum dealt to Milwaukee, and outside of Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, there is no 1 or 2 starter potential in this staff. the rest of the rotation is made up of guys who should be number 5 starters on an average team. The bullpen is better than the rotation, but not by a ton. Frank Francisco should end up as the closer, and he has been successful in that role with Texas, and Jason Frasor is always good, but no one else stands out. The Jays will need someone else in the rotation to step up and the lineup to show more plate discipline than expected to avoid finishing as the worst team in the division. I don't see that happening.

That's all for the AL East. My predictions for the AL Central are soon to follow.

Last chance for bubble teams to step up and make a statement.

We have finally arrived at the last weekend of the college hoops regular season, and things are still a jumbled mess. Earlier in the week I talked about how many of the teams at the top have been scuffling and how there were no dominant teams this season. BYU recently joined the list of the struggling top 10 teams with an emphatic loss to New Mexico in their first game after kicking leading rebounder Brandon Davies off the team for breaking the school's honor code. Even with all of the chaos and strife amongst the top teams in the country, the top 4 seeds finally seem to be coming clear. Thanks to Texas losing a few ballgames and the BYU loss, it seems that Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Ohio State are pretty much locked in to the top seed line. If any of them suffer an unexpected early conference tourney upset, a team like Purdue or Texas could sneak back in there, but that seems unlikely. The real mess in this tournament is at the bottom of it, with the bubble teams.

Nobody on the bubble seems to want to be in the tournament, pretty much following up each good win with a loss to teams they should handle without a problem. Colorado and Nebraska each lost to Iowa State after wins over Texas. Baylor followed its win over Texas A&M with a double-digit loss to Oklahoma State. Virginia Tech toppled Duke, and then promptly lost to Boston College. The Eagles were no strangers to bad defeats themselves, losing to Miami in the last couple of weeks. Every time a team gets to a point where we feel like they are pretty safe, they go and lose a game they have no business losing. It really is making it very hard to separate who's in from who's out. If you do the math, you know that there are 68 teams getting into this tournament, 31 automatically by winning the conference tournament or the Ivy League regular season title, and 37 by an at-large bid. As of right now, there are 57 spots pretty much filled, whether its an automatic qualifer from a one-bid league or a team that should feel pretty safe for an at-large bid. That leaves just 11 spaces between about 21 teams that have a realistic chance. Marquette, Michigan State and Georgia aren't sure things, but they certainly look like tournament teams at this point. that drops it down to 8 spots for 18. Those 18 teams are:

Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois, Baylor, Nebraska, Colorado, Washington State, Alabama, Utah State, Richmond, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Butler, UAB, Missouri State, and Colorado State.

Life on the bubble could get a lot easier if a few of those teams win their conference tournaments. Missouri State, Utah State, UAB, and Butler should all be favored to win their tourneys while St. Mary's or Gonzaga will likely win the one in the WCC. If they all come out on top, that cuts it to 13 teams fighting over 8 spots. If Illinois beats Indiana, they will likely be in as will Michigan if they can top MSU. Clemson would likely be out with a loss to Va Tech and Baylor also with a loss to Texas. Colorado and Nebraska square off in what will essentially be an elimination game. If these things all play out, we're talking about 6 teams vying for 8 spots. In that scenario, you would feel pretty good about Richmond and if the Gaels and Zags meet in the final of the WCC tourney, the loser would likely get in as well. That would leave Virginia Tech, Boston College, Colorado State, Alabama, Washington State, and the winner of Colorado/Nebraska looking at 4 remaining spots. If this does play out, it's gonna be hard to complain if you are on the outside looking in. More likely, all of this talk will mean nothing once the conference tournament chaos ensues. If things continue the way they're going, we should be waiting on selection Sunday to see what teams that limped into the finish will be rewarded with a tourney berth. At least this year, those last 4 into the field have to prove they belong there by playing a first round game just to get to the field of 64. So that's where the tournament picture stands, now lets look at the games for the weekend to close out the season, and see who can make one final statement before the tourneys get rolling next week.

Saturday 3/5:

Kansas @ Missouri (12pm et): This game should be a lot of fun. Kansas certainly has a lack of depth with Thomas Robinson still sidelined, and the uptempo Tigers will keep the Jayhawks gasping for air. Mizzou still doen's know how to win on the road, but this game will be in Columbia, where they are at their best. Look for Marcus Denmon to be the key for Mizzou, and the Morris twins need to try and conserve energy to be able to play as many minutes as possible.
My pick: Kansas

Louisville @ West Virginia (12pm et): The Cardinals have overacheived all season long, and there isn't a lot of reason to believe that will stop this weekend, but the Mountaineers have been tough lately, and the game is in Morgantown. The loss of Rakeem Buckles hasn't slowed L'ville down yet, but West Virginia has plenty of big bodies to throw at them in Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Deniz Kilicli. WVU also should be more motivated since Louisville has already clinched a double-bye in the Big East tournament while the Mountaineers need to win this game to clinch a first round bye.
My pick: WVU

Virginia Tech @ Clemson (12pm et): This one has huge bubble implications. Tech doesn't seem to know how to get off the bubble, and with their recent history they'll likely lose this one so that they really don't know whether they are in or not til the selection show. Clemson is in even worse shape than the Hokies as of today, but that could change if the Tigers take care of VT. The point guard matchup should be a real treat with Malcolm Delaney up against Demontez Stitt, one of the best offensive point guards in the ACC against one of the best defensive ones. Delaney's offensive production should be a key to the game's outcome.
My pick: Virginia Tech

Duquesne @ Richmond (12pm et): This game is only mentioned because the Spiders can't afford to overlook the Dukes. Duquesne got off to an 8-0 start in A-10 play this year before coming back to earth, so they can be dangerous. Kevin Anderson needs to have his teammates ready, because a loss here could be devastating to Richmond's at-large hopes.
My pick: Richmond

Indiana @ Illinois (12pm et): The Illini had better be prepared to play in this one. They have been sporadic of late, and Indiana has the kind of athletes that can make you pay if you come into a game sleepwalking. Illinois has only lost at home to Purdue and Ohio State in Big Ten play, so they seem to play better with the support of the home crowd, but they have to stay focused in this game. They need to move well without the ball to get good looks in the post for Davis and Tisdale, because they can't continue to rely on outside shooting to bail out lazy play.
My pick: Illinois

Georgia @ Alabama (1:30pm et): Mark Fox's squad has been pretty strong all year, not losing a game to a team with an RPI outside of the top 50. Alabama was miserable in the nonconference before steamrolling through the early part of the SEC schedule. Anthony Grant's young team would finish the season 12-4 in conference with a win over the Bulldogs, which would have to make the committee take notice of them, but Georgia is tough. Look for the Bulldogs to take care of business against the Tide behind some strong play from power forward Trey Thompkins, and put to rest any doubt as to whether or not they are in.
My pick: Georgia

Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm et): The Irish are coming off an absolutely unconscious shooting night against Villanova on Monday, and they have to be due to backslide in this one. This is a fun matchup between one of the most veteran squads in the Big East and one of the youngest. Oriakhi should be tough to handle down low, and Kemba Walker should do a good job involving his young teammates if he wants to close out the regular season on a high note. It will be critical to not give Notre Dame open outside shots or they will kill you from out there, as 'Nova learned earlier this week.
My pick: UConn

Georgetown @ Cincinnati (2pm et): The Hoyas have been struggling since the injury to Chris Wright. They've had more than a week off since losing to Syracuse, and hopefully the extra practice time has them ready to exact a little revenge from the Bearcats. Cincy really solidified their tourney resume by beating the Hoyas in DC in the game in which Wright got hurt, but there is plenty at stake in this one. The loser might not get a first round bye in the Big East tournament.
My pick: Georgetown

Michigan State @ Michigan (2pm et): This rivalry showdown could be the best game of the day Saturday. Both teams are on the bubble, and while MSU's strength of schedule should be enough to separate them from the rest of the bubble heap, there are no sure things when you have double-digit losses. U of M is on a bit of a roll lately, and would just about seal up a berth with a home win over the Spartans. Freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. has really been coming into his own, and the Wolverines will certainly be a handful. It's just tough to bet against Tom Izzo in a big lates season game.
My pick: Michigan State

Villanova @ Pittsburgh (4pm et): Villanova is in an absolute free fall right now. They struggled down the stretch last year, and wound up out of the tournament before the sweet 16 as a 2-seed. The way they got dismantled by Notre Dame Monday was embarassing, and now they get to go to Pittsburgh, where it's almost impossible to win a game. The Panthers' bruising style won't be fun for Villanova's guard oriented team, and Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall will make 'Nova pay again if they don't guard the outside shot. The Wildcats could really use a confidence boosting win right now, but Pitt will be tough since an outright Big East title is at stake for the Panthers.
My pick: Pittsburgh

UCLA @ Washington State (5:30pm et): The Cougars are in pretty much a must-win position going into this game, and they go into it without their best player. Klay Thompson is suspended for the game after being cited for marijuana possession, and that will make the Bruins very tough to beat. If UCLA wins, it solidifies their seeding in the tournament and gives them hope for a shared conference crown if Arizona stumbles agaisnt Oregon State. Look for Reeves Nelson and the Bruins to be fired up for this one.
My pick: UCLA

Cleveland State @ Butler (6pm et): This one is in the semifinals of the Horizon League tournament, and both teams need it bad. Without a conference tournament win, the Vikings are headed to the NIT, and Butler can expect the same if it fails to at least get to the tourney final agaisnt either Valpo or UW-Milwaukee. Norris Cole will likely do some amazing things for Cleveland State, but Butler has a ton of postseason experience and a better overall team. This game should have a lot of intensity.
My pick: Butler

Marquette @ Seton Hall (6pm et): Marquette can't really afford to let a winnable game get away from them. The big thing the Golden Eagles resume rests on is that they have no bad losses. Losing to Seton Hall, even on the road would qualify as one of those. The Pirates are playing well, having beaten red hot St. John's this week, so Marquette had better be ready for a fight. Jeremy Hazell has been a dynamic scorer his whole career for Seton Hall, and he will be a big key for the Pirates in this game.
My pick: Marquette

Florida @ Vanderbilt (6pm et): This game is mainly about seeding implications. Vandy has a little more at stake with a possible first round SEC tourney bye on the line. They are currently tied with Kentucky and Georgia for the spot, but only one can get it so a win here is crucial. Florida has played the most consistent ball in the SEC this year, and would likely get a 3 seed with a win here and a decent SEC tournament showing. The Gators will have to keep after John Jenkins, who has been scoring at will lately. This should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.
My pick: Florida

Duke @ North Carolina (8pm et): This is the marquee game of the weekend, and there are several big games. Duke would absolutely wrap up a one seed with a victory over the red hot Tar Heels. The winner of this game is the number one seed in the ACC tournament and regular season champ. It doesn't get much better for this rivalry. Duke has been fantastic, led by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, while UNC's recent run has been the result of the improvements of young guys Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes. Barnes has been brimming with confidence lately after knocking down the game-winner against FSU on Wednesday. Duke will try and keep him quiet with Singler on him defensively. That strategy worked in Durham, but will it be effective on the road in Chapel Hill?
My pick: Duke

Texas @ Baylor (9pm et): The Bears, quite simply, need to win this game. They should be terribly overmatched if the Longhorns play up to their capabilities, but Texas has really not done that much on the road lately. They've dropped games to Kansas State, Colorado and Nebraska lately, so a loss to Baylor isn't inconceivable. Texas could really use this win to right the ship into the Big 12 tourney, and Baylor just flat out needs to win.
My pick: Texas

Nebraska @ Colorado (9pm et): This is a bubble elimination game. Neither team has a great resume, but both got a lift from beating the Longhorns at home. Neither team has proved that they can win on the road, but both have been very good in their home gyms. With this game in Colorado, you'd have to favor the Buffs. Alec Burks is a great scorer, and although Nebraska has a good defense, so did Texas and Burks went off on them in Boulder.
My pick: Colorado

USC @ Washington (10pm et): The Trojans certainly don't look like they are going to be a tournament team, but a win over Washington would give them a season sweep over the Huskies and might make some committee members look closer at these two Pac-10 schools. The Trojans do have big nonconference wins over Texas and Tennessee, and two wins over a sure tournament team who is pretty close to them in the standings could give them some reason to complain. The Huskies won't be easy to beat, though.
My pick: Washington

Colorado State @ San Diego State (10pm et): This is the last shot for Colorado State to pad the resume before the conference tournament. The Rams are a long shot right now to get in, and they played SDSU close in Fort Collins. Winning this game is a must. If they don't, it would likely take two good wins to get into the tournament, and the only chances they would have would be in the semifinals and the finals of the MWC tournament. Since winning both of those games would mean winning that tourney, they have to win this game to be an at-large team. Otherwise, it's tourney title or NIT.
My pick: San Diego State

Sunday 3/6:

Kentucky @ Tennessee (12pm et): The Wildcats haven't won a road game against a quality team in a while, and they could really use the confidence boost of taking down the Vols in Knoxville. These freshmen have to learn to win away from Rupp before the tourney, because there won't be any home games there. The Volunteers may be hard pressed to keep all of the UK perimeter shooters in check, since top UT defender Melvin Goins can only cover one guy at a time.
My pick: Kentucky

Wisconsin @ Ohio State (4pm et): This game is about revenge for the Buckeyes. They've only dropped two games all season, and one was to these Badgers. Ohio State doesn't lose in Columbus, and winning against Wisconsin should put OSU in great shape to pick up the number one overall seed in the tournament. This matchup should be just as good as the first one, and it will be all about Wisconsin being able to defend Sullinger without losing the defense on the perimeter shooters. It should be a great game to watch to close out the regular season.
My pick: Ohio State

Ticket Punching Games:

This weekend there will be a couple of games to punch the first few automatic bid tickets to this year's NCAA tournament. The Ivy League title will likely be decided, and the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Ohio Valley, and Missouri Valley tournament titles will be sorted out this weekend. Here's a look at those games:

Saturday 3/5:

Big South Final:UNC Asheville @ Coastal Carolina (4pm et): The Chanticleers dominated the regular season in the Big South, but have a huge cloud of controversy lingering over them as they play without their leading scorer Desmond Holloway due to suspension. The roster is down to 8 active players, and UNC-Asheville will test that limited depth. This one should be tough for CCU, but can they really get this close to the NCAAs two straight years and fall short both times?
My pick: UNC-Asheville

Atlantic Sun Final:Belmont vs. North Florida (6pm et): The Ospreys of North Florida have been impressive in the A-Sun tournament, knocking off the 3rd and 2nd seeds on their way to the finals to play top-seeded Belmont. Belmont is not going to go down so easily. Look for the Bruins to continue the dominating play that got them that top seed and punch their ticket to the big dance.
My pick: Belmont

Ivy League: Princeton @ Harvard (7pm et): This game would punch Princeton's ticket with a win by the Tigers, but a loss would give Harvard a half game lead and likely force an eventual one game playoff between the two for the league crown. Tommy Amaker's Crimson squad would love nothing more than to win this game and have a chance to play their way into the big dance for the first time in a long time, but Princeton won the first meeting and is close to unbeatable in Ivy League play.
My pick: Princeton

Ohio Valley Final: Tennessee Tech vs. Morehead State (8pm et): Morehead State didn't expect to get this matchup in the finals. The two toughest teams in the OVC other them themselves are out before the finals. The Eagles dominated a good Austin Peay team while their stiffest competition, the Murray State Racers, got stunned by Tennessee Tech. Now, the Eagles and star big man Kenneth Faried, fresh off his 21 rebound performance agaisnt the Governors, just have to stay focused and take care of business against Tennessee Tech to earn their second tourney bid in the last 3 seasons.
My pick: Morehead State

Sunday 3/6:

Missouri Valley Final: (2pm et): The matchup is still undecided since the semifinals are on Saturday, but it should be a great game no matter who plays here. Top seed Missouri State plays Creighton in one semifinal, while 2 seed Wichita State gets Indiana State in the other. The Bears survived a big time scare from Southern Illinois in the quarterfinals and is unlikely to play that poorly agaisnt Creighton. Wichita State should be able to overmatch the Sycamores in their semifinal match, which would set up the final everyone wants to see: Shockers vs, Bears. The Bears won the two regular season matchups, but they were both close and it's very hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. Look for a very close, hotly contested final if these two both get there.
My pick: Wichita State

Well, that's it for this weekend. Enjoy the big games, and hopefully your team goes dancing. I'll be back to break down the big conference tourneys next week.

Top teams in college hoops still unclear with a week to go

Another crazy week in college basketball is in the books, and an unlikely trend continued to come up: The teams in the top 10 of the polls simply cannot avoid finding ways to lose down the stretch of the season. A couple of weeks ago, 7 of the top 10 lost at least one game, with only Duke, SDSU and BYU coming out unscathed. This week Duke and SDSU took hits as well. Throw in that Pitt lost another game, Texas blew a 22-point lead against Colorado, number 10 Arizona lost twice, and number 11 Georgetown did the same, and it was a bad week to be a good team. If not for narrow escapes, Notre Dame and Wisconsin would be among the defeated this week as well. All of this leads you to ask, 'Where are the dominant teams?' Two weeks ago, ESPN experts were talking about Texas as the best team in the country as they rolled through Big 12 play, and now they've been taken down by a couple average conference foes in Nebraska and Colorado. If these two weeks are any indication of what lies ahead, the tournament could be a real mess by the sweet 16, and in the more immediate future, Kansas and Ohio State had better be careful this week with tough games left. No one wants to go into their conference tournament on a losing streak, even if it's just one game. Here's a quick look at the week that was, and the week ahead:

My top 10 after last week: 1.Ohio State 2.Kansas 3.Duke 4.BYU 5.Pittsburgh 6.Purdue 7.Texas 8.San Diego State 9.Notre Dame 10.Wisconsin

WHO'S HAVING A GOOD WEEK:

St. John's: The Red Storm had more than a good week, thy've had a good month with 6 straight wins, many of them over some of the best teams the Big East could throw at them. They beat Pitt a week ago Saturday on a play where star guard Dwight Hardy likely stepped out of bounds, but no matter, the win stands. They followed that by hammering DePaul and taking care of Villanova in Philly this week, and in the process went from number 34 in votes in the coaches poll 2 weeks ago (behind the likes of Coastal Carolina, St. Mary's, Wichita State, and UTEP) to number 15 entering this week. That's quite a climb in such a short period.

Dwight Hardy: He bears mentioning separate from the team for the ridiculous numbers he's put up during the winning streak. Over the last 9 games (in which SJU is 8-1) Hardy has scored 24 points a game on over 50% shooting and 50% on the dot from beyond the arc. He is the biggest part of the St. John's turnaround this year under Steve Lavin.

Reeves Nelson, UCLA: The Bruins athletic forward had a huge week in two big wins for UCLA, putting up 12 points and 12 boards in a comfortable win over Arizona State, and then piling up 27 and 16 in a blowout win over Arizona that knotted the Bruins with the Wildcats atop the Pac-10 standings. It was nice to see UCLA get some wins by big margins after seeing them play so many close games against lesser competition this season.

Virginia Tech: What a difference a week makes. The Hokies were in a terrible position a week ago after letting the Virginia Cavaliers complete a season sweep of them. Beating Duke on Saturday makes up for that loss and puts Va. Tech right back on track to be playing in the big dance. Nothing is certain yet for the Hokies, but they have to like their chances much better today than they did before Saturday's win.

BYU: The Cougars finished off the season sweep of the San Diego State Aztecs last Saturday in the biggest game of the weekend, and thanks to the struggles of the teams ahead of them are now in the driver's seat for a number one seed in the tournament. It's likely they will have to get to the finals of the MWC tournament and face SDSU one more time to lock up a one seed, but even a loss in that third matchup shouldn't bump them from the one line. Jimmer and the Cougars are certainly far ahead of where anyone expected them to be at the season's outset.

WHO"S NOT HAVING A GOOD WEEK:

Texas: The Longhorns have no excuse that can explain away the collapse against Alec Burks and the Buffs, and the choke job likely cost them a number one seed. That could be a good thing since Rick Barnes's teams struggle with high expectations in the tourney, but the confidence of that vaunted defense could be shot after the 91 points they allowed Colorado to drop on them. It will be crucial for Texas to regroup and refocus as they still have to take on Kansas State and Baylor before the Big 12 tournament.

Georgetown: The Hoyas dropped two big games this week to Cincinnati and to hated rival Syracuse, and even worse, lost starting point guard Chris Wright to a broken hand for the next couple of weeks. Even though role players like Nate Lubick and Julian Vaughn stepped up with Wright out, it still wasn't enough to pull out a win this week. The Hoyas will be in serious trouble if Wright takes longer than expected to get back out there.

Boston College: The Eagles lost a game they really couldn't afford to lose at home against Miami. Now they likely have to win their remaining games at Virginia Tech and home against Wake Forest and also have a good showing in the ACC tournament to like their at-large chances. Not a good position to be in for such an inconsistent team.

Villanova: The Wildcats have got to get out of this late season swoon. They've dropped four of their last six, and the two wins were close against Big East bottom-feeders. Things don't get any easier this week with games against the top two teams in the conference on the road, Pitt and Notre Dame. The Wildcats definitely need to win one of those games to have any confidence going into the Big East tourney at MSG.

Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers (I love that mascot) have been pretty dominant in the Big South conference this season, at least until the last 2 weeks. After opening league play 14-0, CCU has dropped 2 of their last 4, including one to the league's worst team, Gardner-Webb. This is a Chanticleer squad that won the regular season title last year in the Big South only to lose in the conference tournament, and the recent struggles make them appear beatable once again. They draw Gardner-Webb once again to open the conference tournament, and avenging the loss will hopefully get this squad back on track to the NCAAs.

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

Monday 2/28:

Villanova @Notre Dame (7pm et): The Wildcats are absolutely falling apart while Notre Dame survived a couple tough games last week without a loss. Both teams are locks for the tournament, but Villanova's seed is in a free fall right now. If they can't win one of their final 2 regular season games, they could fall all the way to a 7 or 8 seed. These teams are both perimeter oriented, but the key for 'Nova will be to speed up the game. Notre Dame plays smart, but they are not as athletic as the Wildcats. If the Wildcats use that advantage, they could certainly pull off the win in South Bend.

Kansas State @ Texas (9pm et): Texas needs to stop the bleeding after some recent struggles, and K-State is finally playing like the team they were supposed to be at the start of the year. The frontcourt is finally coming together as well with improved play by Rodney McGruder and a few others. Texas will need Dogus Balbay to clamp down on Jacob Pullen for Texas to win this one. It should be one of the best games of the week, and a meaningful one to both squads. Expect a lot of emotion and intensity on both sides.

Tuesday 3/1:

Illinois @ Purdue (7pm et): The Fighting Illini haven't had a lot of fight lately. Their tournament status may be in jeopardy if they continue to struggle down the stretch. Now, Illinois isn't expected to win at Purdue, but winning this game will put an end to all the questions about whether or not the Illini are on the bubble or in the field. They will most certainly be in if they can beat the Boilers. That won't be very easy for a team that gets lazy on offense squaring off against one of the most intense defensive schemes in all of college basketball. Look for the Boilers to win by double digits and keep Illinois in flux as far as the tourney goes.

Alabama @ Florida (7pm et): This has become a must win game for Anthony Grant's team after slipping up against Ole Miss over the weekend. The Crimson Tide had a nice run in SEC play, but that run may be over. The Gators are very tough to beat in Gainsville, and they will be playing angry after getting soundly beaten at Rupp Arena on Saturday. Florida's balance in the starting five makes them very tough to beat, and Alabama isn't likely to be the type of team that can take them down. This one probably ends 'Bama's at-large hopes.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7pm et): This is now a "just don't lose" game for the Bears. Beating Texas A&M gave Baylor some hope once again for the big dance, and they get a shot at Texas at home to close the regular season, but they cannot afford a slip-up against the Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater. It's never an easy task to win at Oklahoma State, and Baylor big man Perry Jones will have his hands full with Marshall Moses inside, but the Bears have some weapons on the perimeter in LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy who should give them enough for another win. A loss here would be devastating.

Missouri @ Nebraska (8pm et): Mizzou gets one more shot to beat a team on the road in the Big 12 that is not Iowa State. The Tigers are just 1-6 in league road games after playing only 1 true road game in the nonconference (a win over Oregon). On the flip side of that coin, Nebraska is very strong at home. The 'Huskers are 5-2 at home in the Big 12 and 16-2 at home overall. Nebraska plays a very physical, grinding defense under Doc Sadler, and Missouri likes to get out and run. The contrasting styles should be fun in this one. Whichever side does a better job on the defensive end of not allowing buckets, which allow their opponent to set up on defense better, will have the edge in this one and likely win. Turnovers and field goal percentage will be the key stats in this one. Mizzou needs to get over this road thing before the tourney starts, because they will not be playing postseason games in Columbia.

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (9pm et): This game is just a good matchup. There is very little at stake for each team aside from momentum at the end of the season and minor seeding implications. Both teams will certainly be in the tournament. The Wildcats have a ridiculous win streak going at Rupp Arena, but Vandy is a veteran team that can pull off the upset. John Jenkins has been shooting the lights out for the Commodores, and Vandy can defend Liggins, Knight and Miller on the outside. The key will be if Vanderbilt can contain Terrence Jones's scoring and Josh Harrelson's rebounding inside. Vandy's Lance Goulbourne and Festus Ezeli will have their hands full in this one.

Ohio State @ Penn State (9pm et): This is the Buckeyes' last road test of the season, and Penn State is dangerous at home when they get hot. PSU likely will have no answer for Sullinger inside or any of the OSU shooters. The Nittany Lions can get lost on defense when the offense runs effective ball screens, and they have few offensive weapons beyond Taylor Battle. This would be a huge upset for PSU if they can get it, but a double-digit loss is much more likely.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9pm et): This game is a big one for both of these teams. The Hokies should be brimming with confidence after taking down Duke at home last Saturday, and Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen and Victor Davila are really starting to play well together for VT. Boston College is in slightly worse position than Tech with no wins over Duke or UNC, so a win here feels like a must. The Eagles beat the Hokies by just 2 points in Chestnut Hill a few weeks ago, so these teams are pretty evenly matched. I think the Hokies are coming together at the right time, and edge the Eagles at home to stay on the right side of the bubble for now.

Wednesday 3/2:

North Carolina @ Florida State (7pm et): The 'Noles have struggled since losing Chris Singleton. They're winning the games they are expected to, but they did get thumped by the Terps in Maryland last week. Their tournament status still seems safe, but who knows how much weight the committee will give to this stretch without their star player, since it seems unlikely he will return for the tourney. A win over UNC would certainly make things a little more comfortable in Tallahassee. That win will be tough though, as North Carolina is really playing great ball lately, winning 10 of 11 with the only loss being to Duke.

Connecticut @ West Virginia (7pm et): The Huskies and Mountaineers have both been up and down in Big East play, and both would like to go into the Big East tournament on an upswing. More importantly, both would like to go into the Big East tournament with a bye into the second round. Both currently sit at 9-7 in league play, in a 5-way tie for 7th place. Two of those 5 teams will get a bye in the tournament. A win in this game will be a big step forward towards that bye for WVU or UConn. The key matchup will likely be Jeremy Lamb guarding Casey Mitchell. WVU can struggle to score at times, and Mitchell is a huge catalyst when he is on. Lamb has great length to defend that outside shot, and how WVU counters the UConn defense will be a huge factor in the game's outcome.

UAB @ Southern Miss (7pm et): The Blazers are the one real hope left for C-USA to get a team into the dance as an at-large, but for that to happen, they cannot lose another game before the C -USA tournament final. Southern Miss has been one of the better Conference USA squads this season, so this one will be tough for UAB. Mike Davis has been a great coach down in Birmingham over the past few years, and I like him to get his team to this big road win.

Cincinnati @ Marquette (8pm et): While both Cincy and Marquette look like they will be in the tournament at season's end, that would mean 11 teams from the Big East are in. There is little question that these two teams are numbers 10 and 11 in the league in terms of tourney resume strength, and the loser of this game will likely be viewed as number 11. If the committee has any qualms about putting 11 squads from one league in the tournament, the loser of this game could get the short end of the stick. This game also has implications for a first round bye in the Big East tournament as these teams are also in the 5-way tie. Dion Dixon and Yancy Gates are a tough inside-outside combo for Cincy, but Darius Johnson-Odom, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and the rest of Marquette are always tough to beat.

Clemson @ Duke (9pm et): Clemson is hanging on to the bubble by a thread. A win over the Dukies might put them on a little better footing on that bubble. It certainly won't be easy though, as Duke is just about unbeatable at Cameron Indoor Arena. Look for Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to light up Clemson and roll to victory.

Texas A&M @ Kansas (9pm et): The Jayhawks are back up to number 2 in the nation after playing pretty well last week while A&M slipped up against Baylor over the weekend. The Jayhawks are still missing Thomas Robinson, and this A&M squad is pretty solid, but they will struggle to match up with the Morris twins inside. If they can contain Marcus and Markeiff, they will have a chance at the big road upset, and to throw a wrench into the Jayhawks plans for a one seed.

New Mexico @ BYU (10pm et): BYU has their sights set on a one seed, and losing to New Mexico is not an option if they want to do that. The Lobos have played their way out of at-large consideration over the past few weeks, but Steve Alford's squad is still dangerous. BYU should be careful, but Jimmer is as tough to stop as ever and the Cougars should come out on top.

Just Don't Lose Games: Several teams on the fringe of the bubble have games on Wednesday night that they can't afford to lose if they want to stay on the bubble. Those games are:

Iowa @ Michigan State (7pm et): Spartans lost by 20 in Iowa City.
Memphis @ East Carolina (7pm et): Tigers don't have a lot of hope, but still a little
Maryland @ Miami (7pm et): Terps still alive, but they won't be if they lose to the 'Canes.
Richmond @ St. Joe's (7pm et): The Spiders are in decent shape, but St. Joe's is not good.
Colorado @ Iowa State (7:30pm et): Buffs back from the dead after beating Texas.
LSU @ Georgia (8pm et): The Bulldogs need to beat the teams they're supposed to
Minnesota @ Northwestern (8:30pm et): The Gophers are desperate for a win
Utah @ Colorado State (9pm et): The Rams have no margin for error after losing to BYU, SDSU
Utah State @ New Mexico State (11pm et): No margin for error for Utah State either

Thursday 3/3:

Tennessee @ South Carolina (7pm et): The Vols have been up and down this year, both on and off the court, but Joe Lunardi still has this team solidly in the tournament as an 8 seed right now. I'm not so sure they are a certainty. Going to South Carolina to play the Gamecocks could be dangerous for Tennessee. Darrin Horn's team is always going to give a strong effort, and Tennessee is very capable of putting up an off night, especially with all the dristractions from the recruiting violations the school is accused of.

Oregon State @ Arizona (9pm et): The Wildcats need to get back on track after losing two games last week, one by a big margin. Oregon State normally plays tough, but the Wildcats will play angry and should take care of business against the Beavers.

UCLA @ Washington (9pm et): This is the biggest game on Thursday, and it should be a fun one. The Bruins need the win to have a shot at the Pac-10 regular season title, but the Huskies may be getting to the point that they need this win to make sure they get into the tournament. U-Dub has a lot of talent, but they don't seem to play the same from one game to the next. UCLA has started to find their consistency behind Reeves Nelson, and this matchup could be an uphill battle for the Huskies.

USC @ Washington State (10pm et): The Trojans have been an enigma this season. They have some huge wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State as well as a near miss at Kansas. They also have inexplicable losses. They managed to lose to Rider, Bradley, and TCU in the nonconference as well as Oregon State, Cal, and twice to Oregon in league play. It adds up to an NIT team, but it would still be a nice win for Washington State if they can get it. The Cougars really need to keep winning down the stretch to keep any slim at-large hopes they have alive. Klay Thompson is a star, but he needs his teammates to step up and help him get a big home win over USC. A win here and then over UCLA, and people will have to take notice of Wazzu.

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS:

While most of the big boys have another week of conference games before the postseason tourneys begin, the small conferences get ready to lace 'em up for conference tourney games this week. Most of these tournaments don't make national headlines until a winner is crowned, but those automatic bids can certainly make life miserable for some big name teams in the first round. Here is a look at the conference tourneys that get going this week.

Horizon League: March 1st, 4th-5th, 8th - campus sites
Favorite: Butler. Despite struggles this season that had the Bulldogs in the middle of the Horizon pack for part of the year, they rebounded late to get the number 2 seed in the conference tournament to get a double-bye to the semifinals. Ronald Nored, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard are a great veteran core that makes this squad the most talented team in the Horizon, and one that should be expected to win the league tournament.
Sleeper: Cleveland State. The Vikings have shown flashes of being a great team for the Horizon league and Norris Cole has put up some ridiculous numbers at times this season. While UW-Milwaukee has the double-bye to the semi's it's Cleveland State who poses the biggest threat to Butler. They should be in a rhythm by the semifinals while Butler will have been sitting for a week getting rusty. That should be a great matchup for Cole and the Vikes.
Player to Watch: Norris Cole, Cleveland State. There's more than just a flat-top haircut on this kid that merits a second look. Cole is capable of putting up 30+ points on any given night, and he can rebound and pass as well. If the Vikings are going to go dancing, they will do so on Cole's back.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. If Butler wins, they have plenty of experience in the tourney as last year's runner-up to Duke. Their slow-down style will keep them in any game if they are hitting their 3's, and they just know how to win tournament games. They have a proven track record as a program of knocking off the big boys in March. The Sweet 16 is a real possibility. If it's Cleveland State, Norris Cole always gives you a puncher's chance. With a favorable matchup, the Vikings can certainly pull of a first round upset as well.

Big South: March 1st, 3rd, 5th - campus sites
Favorite: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are 16-2 in league play and are the clear favorite to represent the league in the tournament. It bears mentioning that they did drop 2 games in the last 2 weeks and lost in this tournament as the favorites last year, but they likely have learned their lesson and are poised to take care of business this time around.
Sleeper: UNC-Asheville. You would expect 2-seed Liberty here, but they have dropped 4 straight to close the regular season, and so UNCA is the default sleeper. No one is likely to take down CCU, but UNCA is as good a pick as any to be the team that might take the Chanticleers down.

Player to Watch: Desmond Holloway, CCU. The junior guard has been Coastal Carolina's best player and will certainly be a big factor if CCU is to get to the NCAAs. He's averaging 18.5 points and 7 boards a game for the Chanticleers, and will likely play big in the Big South tourney.

NCAA Tourney win chances:OK. It depends on the seed and matchup for CCU, as a 15 or 16 seed is likely a death sentence, but a 13 or 14 gives them a shot. The Chanticleers are experienced, and could really make a game of it if they hang around with their first round opponent into the second half.



Atlantic Sun: March 2nd-5th - Macon, GA

Favorite: Belmont. The Bruins are the clear favorites for the conference tourney title after a 19-1 regular season conference mark, and there isn't even a close second. This team is very balanced and should be tough for any A-Sun team to take out.

Sleeper: East Tennessee State. The Pirates were second in the A-Sun at 16-4, and seem like the only team other than Belmont with a realistic shot of winning in Macon. The chances are not great after being beaten by the Bruins by 10 each time they met during the season, but no one else really has any chance.

Player to Watch: Mike Smith, ETSU. Smith is the Pirates leading scorer at nearly 17 points a game to go along with 7 boards and 2 assists. at 6-6, the senior guard has the size to be a weapon against Belmont in the finals. He will have to play very well in that game for ETSU to have a chance.

NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Belmont has had some run-ins with high seeds in the tourney in the past, and they normally put a scare into them. This squad is balanced and well coached, and 3 of their 4 losses were by single digits to Tennessee (twice, once by just a point) and and Vanderbilt. The Bruins are certainly capable of pulling off a first round upset and should be a team to keep an eye on when the field is announced.



Ohio Valley Conference: March 2nd-5th - Nashville, TN

Favorite(s): Murray State, Morehead State: The Racers won this tourney last year and Morehead won it the year before. The Racers are the number one seed after winning the regular season title by just a game, beating the Eagles last Thursday. Expect these two to meet in the finals without question. Anyone else getting there would be at least a mild surprise.

Sleeper: Austin Peay. The Governors are tied in the standings with Morehead State and are the 3 seed in this tournament. They have some experience of their own in the big dance over the past decade or so, but this isn't their tourney to win. They have to take it from first Morehead in the semis, then Murray St. in the finals.

Player to Watch: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State. Faried broke Tim Duncan's NCAA record for career rebounds this season and he really is the Morehead State team. Few squads this season have had an answer for him this year, and few in the conference tourney will. Faried is averaging 17.6 points, a ridiculous 14.2 rebounds, 2 steals and 2.1 blocks per game for the season. Few players can match that kind of stat line for one night, let alone for a season.

NCAA Tourney Win Chances: Low. Unfortunately for the OVC, Murray St. and Morehead St. failed to really impress in the nonconference, and the balance at the top with the Racers, Eagles, Governors and even Tennessee Tech have kept any of these teams from an impressive resume. As a result, these teams are looking at a 15 or 16 seed should they win. Most 1 or 2 seeds will be able to find an answer for Kenneth Faried. Murray State could pose a tougher test for a 2 seed as they are very experienced, returning most of a squad that upset Vandy in the first round a year ago, and they have great balance. A win is unlikely for the Racers, but they have a better shot at an upset than the Eagles.



Patriot League: March 2nd, 6th, 11th - campus sites

Favorite: Bucknell. The Bison are heavy favorites after going 13-1 in the Patriot league, and they definitely would like to get back to the big dance this year. Few teams pose a serious threat, but anything can happen in this one-and-done scenario.

Sleeper: Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks don't jump out as a sleeper in this field with a losing conference record and the number 4 seed in the tournament, but they did get into the tournament a year ago and certainly could catch Bucknell looking ahead to 2 seed American University in the semis. It would be a shocker Lehigh went dancing again, but this team is a sleeper for one main reason: C.J. McCollum.

Player to Watch: C.J. McCollum, Lehigh. McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who averages almost 22 points and just under 8 rebounds a game, and can be a real thorn in the side of Bucknell in the semifinals, and American if they get to the finals. If the Mountain Hawks are to live up to the sleeper status, it will be because of McCollum.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Bucknell has some past tournament success advancing to the second round two straight years a little while back, but this Bison team is not one of those two. Bucknell will likely be a 15 or 16 seed, and will have little to no shot at an upset. The chances are lower if anyone else wins, as anyone not named Bucknell will likely be put in a play-in game just to get a crack at a 1 seed.



America East: March 3rd, 5th-6th, 12th - Burlington, VT

Favorite: Vermont. The Catamounts are the class of the league this season, and should be the team expected to win the automatic bid. The Terriers of Boston should be considered as well as the 2 seed, but this tourney is Vermont's to lose.

Sleeper: Maine. This is a difficult to peg Black Bear team. They lost 5 of their first 6 games, then won 12 of 14 games including wins over Penn State and each of the other top 4 America East teams. They then proceeded to drop 6 out of their last 7 to fall to the number 3 seed in the tourney. If they can recapture the magic they found in the middle of the season, Maine can make a run in this thing.

Player to Watch: John Holland, Boston U. He's the best scorer on any of the top America East teams at over 19 points per game, and the forward also chips in 5.7 rebounds. He will have to play well to give the Terriers a good shot at winning the automatic bid.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Vermont is the only squad here that could pull of a first round win, and that would take everything in that game going perfectly for them. Don't expect it and don't pick an AEC team to get to the second round.



Northeast Conference: March 3rd, 6th, 9th - campus sites

Favorite: Long Island. The Blackbirds run this league for now with a 16-2 conference mark, which gave them a 3 game edge over number 2 Quinnipiac. There are a handful of teams that could be dangerous to LIU in this one, but they are unlikely to unseat this one seed.

Sleeper: Robert Morris. The Colonials are the one of the 2 teams that handed LIU a loss during the season, and they would certainly like another chance to get the Blackbirds in the finals, they would have to get past Quinnipiac in the semis, which is not an impossible task. The Bobcats and Colonials are separated by just a game in the NEC standings.

Player to Watch: Ken Horton, Central Conn. St. This bruising forward averages 20 points, 9 boards, 2 dimes and 1.6 blocks for the Blue Devils and could be a very tough matchup for the Blackbirds in the semifinals. If LIU doesn't come in focused, CCSU could be sending them home early in this tournament.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Blackbirds would be the only NEC team that would dodge a 16 seed, and that's not even for sure. They still could get a 16 as well, but a 15 seems more likely. A first round matchup with any of the 2 seeds would likely still result in a first round loss for LIU. Don't expect much from the NEC champ.



Missouri Valley Conference, March 3rd-6th - St. Louis, MO

Favorite(s): Missouri State, Wichita State. The Bears won the regular season title and took down number 2 seed Wichita State twice in the process. Neither team has secured an at-large bid at this point, so if they meet in the finals, look for a very spirited matchup that could go either way. Beating a team three times in a row is a very difficult task when the talent level is evenly matched.

Sleeper: Evansville. Creighton and Northern Iowa are certainly more likely to come out of this with an automatic bid than the Purple Aces, but the Aces are more of a wild card. Their overall record and conference record are a picture of mediocrity at .500 in both, but they have some surprising wins under their belt. They have beaten Butler, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Indiana State this season, all teams with better records, and all but Butler higher seeds in the MVC tourney. If the Aces get hot, they can certainly do some damage in St. Louis. They draw Indiana State first, and a win there gets them a shot at Wichita State, one of the few MVC teams they haven't beat yet.

Players to Watch: Kyle Weems, Missouri St., Kwadzo Ahelegbe, No. Iowa. Weems has been the key for the regular season champion Bears scoring 16.3 points and grabbing 7 rebounds a game and being the key frontcourt presence for Missouri State. He will have to continue his consistent play for the Bears to win the tournament and get the at-large bid. Ahlegebe is one of the Panthers remaining from last year's sweet 16 team, and he has been strong in MVC play, scoring over 15 points a game and being the catalyst of UNI's offense. For the Panthers to have any chance of getting back to the dance, Ahelegbe will have to be on his game.

NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Both Missouri State and Wichita State are capable of pulling off an upset. No one below the top 3 lines is a sure bet to get to the second round, and whichever team gets out of this league will likely be a 12 or 13 seed and have a real shot at an upset. Northern Iowa would also be a tough tourney draw in the first round.



Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: March 4th-7th - Bridgeport, CT
Favorite: Fairfield. The Stags are the 1 seed and are the best bet to come out of the Metro Atlantic. Siena has fallen way down the standings after dominating this league the past couple of seasons, and a new crop of teams has climbed to the top. Fairfield, at 15-3 in MAAC play is the best of that crop.
Sleeper: Iona. The Gaels are the 3 seed in this tournament, but they are on a tear, winning 7 straight coming into this. 2 seed Rider has won 5 straight of their own, but Iona is brimming with confidence after closing the regular season with a win over Fairfield. Both are capable of topping the Stags again, but look for the Gaels to be the squad that gets to the final.
Player to Watch: Ryan Rossiter, Siena. The Saints are not going to be expected to win more than their opening game, but they won't be an easy out for their second round opponent. Rossiter has been there for the past 2 tournament berths for Siena, and he is a dangerous inside presence for them. He's averaged 19 points and 13.3 rebounds on the season, and he could certainly carry the Saints to a win or 2 in the conference tournament.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Low. The MAAC has a history of pulling off upsets in the dance and at least scaring teams early, but this year's Metro Atlantic squads don't seem quite as good as those from years past. Siena had some great talent when they knocked off Ohio State, and Manhattan had a very strong team led by guard Luis Flores in 2003 when they nearly stunned Syracuse in the opening round before the Orange went on to the national title. Fairfield doesn't have that type of talent, and likely will be exiting in the first round.

Southern Conference: March 4th-7th - Chattanooga, TN
Favorite: College of Charleston. The Cougars are the class of the SoCon led by coach Bobby Cremins, and that should show up in the tournament, but there are a lot of other teams that would like a say in this one. Charleston has put a scare into a few big conference teams this year, and should be well tested for this end of the season tourney.
Sleeper: Davidson. Coach Bob McKillop has been very successful in this tourney in recent years, and his Wildcats may be flying under the radar this season. There are other dangerous teams in Wofford and Furman, but it's the Wildcats I would be keeping an eye on.
Player to Watch: Andrew Goudelock, C of C. Goudelock is likely the best player you have never heard of. If you haven't seen him play, you should make time to watch him as he is fantastic. The Cougar guard is a scoring machine dropping 23 points a game and chipping in 4.7 assists and 3.7 boards. He is the reason the Cougars are the favorites and should carry them into the NCAAs.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Somewhat high. Bobby Cremins's squad hasn't pulled off any top level upsets but they have pushed Maryland, North Carolina, and Clemson to the brink. Goudelock isn't the kind of transcendent talent that Steph Curry was who can carry a team to the Elite 8, but he can certainly carry them to one win if he gets going. As usual, it depends on who they match up with, but if they can avoid an elite defensive guard in the first round for Goudelock to match up with, the Cougs can make some noise.

West Coast Conference: March 4th-7th - Las Vegas, NV
Favorite(s): Gonzaga, St. Mary's. There is no question what this tournament is about. the Gaels and Bulldogs split the season series and tied atop the conference at season's end. Both teams feel like they belong in the big dance, and a third matchup between the two to make sure of a berth for one feels inevitable. Both teams will receive double byes and need only one win to square off against the other in the finals next Monday. If last Thursday's showdown in Moraga was any indication, a rematch would be explosive.
Sleeper: San Franciso. The Dons were the third place team in the WCC, and they have a win over Gonzaga under their belt. They haven't been able to beat St. Mary's this year, but it would take until the finals before they would play the Gaels. A bye into the 2nd round of the tournament also is a positive for San Fran.
Players to Watch: Robert Sacre, Gonzaga, Matthew Dellavedola, St. Mary's. These two were both so good in the last meeting between the Zags and Gaels that it wouldn't do them justice to not mention them here. No one on SMC can match up inside with Sacre, who had his way in the low blocks in Moraga. Dellavedola meanwhile, thrives on defenses paying too much attention to star guard Mickey McConnell. He challenges Ohio State's Jon Diebler for the quickest release on a jump shot in the country. If Dellavedola gets just a little bit of space on the perimeter, the ball is going in most of the time.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are capable of doing serious damage in March. The Gaels went to the sweet 16 a year ago, and while they lost Omar Samhan, they are still capable of winning a game or 2 yet again. Gonzaga can do the same now that they have found a point guard in John Stockton's son to go along with Elias Harris, Steven Gray, and big man Sacre inside.

Colonial Athletic Association: March 4th-7th - Richmond, VA
Favorite: George Mason. The Patriots are winners of a remarkable 15 games in a row, and they have gotten better and gained confidence as the season has gone on. They lack any big wins out of conference, but they have dominated in Colonial play. This team is very solid on the defensive end, and they rebound well. The offense can stall at times, but they have been finding their rhythm down the stretch. Old Dominion would like to have something to say about Mason's favorite status, but to do so they are gonna have to beat them.
Sleeper: James Madison. The Dukes have won several big games in the Colonial including a huge late season win over VCU, and they have played George Mason and Old Dominion tough. This team is capable of surprising some people in this tournament, and if they get by Hofstra or VCU in their second game, they could certainly put a scare into Old Dominion in the semis.
Player to Watch: Andre Cornelius, GMU. This little guard doesn't have great numbers on the season, but he is a spark plug who is giving the offense a lift down the stretch with his outside shooting. I guarantee he hits a few big late-game threes in this tournament, perhaps even one or two in the final, a final I expect the Patriots to win.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very, very good. Old Dominion is very capable of winning a first round game, and with a favorable draw, maybe 2. George Mason might be thinking even bigger. Jim Larranaga's team went to the Final Four just 5 years ago, and they would love to make a similar run this year. The way the Patriots are playing right now, they are a nightmare draw for just about anyone. They are efficient and very capable of beating better teams than they have played so far. Look for Mason to get out of the first round and have a good chance at the Sweet 16.

Sun Belt Conference: March 5th-8th - Hot Springs, AR
Favorite: Florida Atlantic. Former St. John's coach Mike Jarvis looks like he's headed back to the NCAA tournament just as his old team gets itself back to glory. The Owls were the Sun Belt regular season champs at 13-3, and are the prohibitive favorites to win the tournament, but this thing could be wide open.
Sleeper: North Texas. The Mean Green are an odd choice at 7-8 in Sun Belt play, but they have a strong overall record and can really make some noise if they get on a roll. Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State are also dangerous, but the Mean Green are the defending tourney champs.
Player to Watch: Tristan Thompson, North Texas. Not the Tristan Thompson from the Longhorns of Texas, this one is a guard and the offensive catalyst for North Texas. He's having a great season, scoring 17 points a game and shooting over 40% from 3. The Mean Green need him to play very well, and they can challenge anyone in this wide open conference tournament field.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Sun Belt doesn't exactly have a rich history of winning if Western Kentucky isn't the representative in the NCAAs. It seems unlikely WKU will get there, and whoever does will be a huge underdog in their first game. Just about no chance that underdog gets a win.

Summit League: March 5th-8th - Sioux Falls, SD
Favorite: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies played an absolute gauntlet in the nonconference to be better prepared for the Summit schedule and for the NCAA tourney. They came close but just short against Michigan State and Valpo, and beat Tennessee. They also took on Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and West Virginia outside of Summit league action. All those tough games led to an easy 17-1 run through conference play, and make Oakland a heavy favorite to cruise to an automatic bid.
Sleeper: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are always a tough team in the Summit tournament. IUPUI is the one team that bested Oakland in league play, but Oral Roberts played them close twice. If anyone can stop the Golden Grizzlies from running roughshod over the competition in the tournament, it is ORU.
Player to Watch: Keith Benson, Oakland. Benson is easily the best player in the Summit League and the best low post player in any smaller conference in the midwest. In Summit play, the Grizzlies' center averages 18.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and an alarmingly impressive 4.4 blocks per game. Throw in that he shoots 57% from the field, and it's time to just hand the guy conference player of the year. Anyone who wants to beat Oakland had better find ways around Benson, or to get him sidelined with foul trouble.
NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Oakland is the only Summit team that has a chance of a first round upset, but it's not a bad chance. They are certainly not going to get a 16 seed, so they will have a fighting chance. If they are lucky enough to draw a high seed without a good inside presence like Georgetown or BYU, they can put a scare into that opponent. At any rate, their experience against the nation's elite should make them a tough out and make their game fun to watch.

College hoops weekend preview

As the calendar prepares to roll over into March, things are heating up around the college basketball world. Pressure is heightening, bubbles are shrinking and in some cases bursting, and desperate teams are running out of chances to score big wins that could get them into the tournament. Over the past week, several bubble teams have put themselves in great position for at-large berths, particularly Kansas State, Michigan State and Gonzaga, while the teams they beat to get in that great position are in trouble. Nebraska, Minnesota and St. Mary's all slipped up in those games and now face uphill battles to at-large tournament bids. There is certainly still time before the field is set, but not a whole lot. Here's a look at the big games to watch for the upcoming weekend and why they are so big:

SATURDAY 2/26

Syracuse at Georgetown (12pm et): This game should be about Syracuse trying to avenge an earlier defeat at home against the Hoyas, but recent events have changed that. With the recent injury to guard Chris Wright, the Hoyas are certainly in trouble. He should be back in time for the tournament, but the team will have to get by for a few games without him. Syracuse is really locked in right now as their young players continue to improve, and beating Georgetown would allow this squad to gain some confidence as the big dance approaches.

Missouri at Kansas State (12pm et): The Wildcats seem to have gotten back on track after some serious struggles throughout the season by topping Kansas and Nebraska in their last 2 games, and continuing that roll with a win over Missouri would pretty much ensure K-State a spot in the tournament. Bramlage Coliseum is definitely a tough environment for a road foe to win in, so the opportunity for the Wildcats is good. The chances of a K-State win seem even better when you consider that Missouri has only one road win in conference play all season, and it was over lowly Iowa State. The matchup looks good for KSU, but this could be just the win the Tigers need to get the road monkey off their back. Either way it should be a very good game.

Wichita State at Missouri State (1pm et): It's pretty simple to explain why this is a big game. The winner is the regular season Missouri Valley conference champion. The Bears won at Wichita State earlier in the season, so you would expect them to be favored at home, but this game should be a doozy. Neither team has done enough so far this season that they should plan on an at-large bid, but a regular season title would certainly be a leg-up on the other should someone else win the conference tournament.

BYU at San Diego State (2pm et): This is a clash of the Mountain West titans, and the winner should still be alive for a number one seed in the NCAA tournament if they can win the conference tournament as well. It's going to be all about Jimmer Fredette as always, but San Diego State will come ready to play and the Aztec fans will be rabid. This game will be nationally televised on CBS and will be a great opportunity for the nation to get acquainted with two of the best teams they haven't seen. This one shouldn't be missed.

St. John's at Villanova (2pm et): The Red Storm victory tour will look to continue in Philly, and with the way 'Nova has been playing lately, they just might let St. John's keep rolling. Dwight Hardy has really become a star over the past couple of months for the Red Storm, and this veteran team has absolutely hit its stride with 5 straight victories including 4 over likely tournament teams. Steve Lavin is working magic with this team, and they seem to be catching Villanova at the right time. The Wildcats are 2-3 over their past 5 games with narrow wins over Seton Hall and DePaul as the only victories. The Wildcats scuffled heading into the tourney a year ago and they ended up losing in the second round to St. Mary's as a 2-seed. A win over St. John's could really reverse the positive momentum.

Memphis at UTEP (3pm et): Conference USA is a mess, with 6 teams within a game of first place in the conference standings. Memphis is one of the 3 tied at the top while UTEP is one of the 3 tied a game back. Memphis is looking to find a little bit of consistency and get a stronger foothold in the at-large tourney field, but that could be tough against a strong Miners team. Guard Randy Culpepper is really becoming a good player and a good leader for UTEP.

Arizona at UCLA (4pm et): The Bruins have really put together a nice season after some struggles early on. Ben Howland seems to have this team headed back to the tournament after last year's absence. Beating Arizona could make the year even better as it would put the Bruins even with the Wildcats atop the Pac-10 standings. Arizona has been fantastic all year, and Derrick Williams is an absolute star, but Reeves Nelson, Tyler Honeycutt and the rest of the UCLA squad is itching to show they can beat a team like Arizona.

Florida at Kentucky (4pm et): The Gators have won 6 straight games, and Kentucky has been struggling, but this game is at Rupp Arena. UK hasn't lost at Rupp this season despite all of their road woes, and this game features the two most athletic starting fives in the SEC in what should be a great showdown. Kentucky probably needs this game a little more than Florida, as their recent struggles have their likely tournament seed in the 5-7 range, while it seems unlikely the Gators will fall below a 3.

Texas at Colorado (4pm et): This should be the last opportunity the Buffs and Alec Burks have to keep their at-large hopes afloat. The Longhorns aren't likely to put up another poor performance after losing to Nebraska last weekend, so the Buffaloes will have to play as well as they are capable to pull of the stunner over Texas, even at home in Boulder.

Michigan at Minnesota (4:30pm et): This game would be much more important if the Wolverines hadn't allowed the banked in 3 by Josh Gasser on Wednesday, but that's the way things happened. As it stands, U of M is certainly a longshot for an at-large bid in the big dance, but Minnesota isn't exactly in great shape themselves. The Golden Gophers haven't been winning much since point guard Al Nolen went down, and they really have to defend their homecourt and beat Michigan in this one to keep hope alive. This should be two very desperate teams squaring off in Minneapolis on Saturday, but I think the Wolverines will find a way to win.

South Carolina at Georgia (7pm et): The Bulldogs simply must win this game to feel like they are still in good shape for an at-large bid. The Gamecocks are a very scrappy team and hard to put away, so UGa better be ready to play a full 40 minutes. I think they will get the job done, but the bounceback win coming off the loss at Florida is a must.

Texas A&M at Baylor (9pm et): Baylor's at-large hopes are hanging on by a thread at this point, especially after getting throttled at Missouri. The last time they were in this kind of trouble, they scored a huge win at Texas A&M to rejuvenate their season. They could use that kind of lift again as the Aggies come to Waco to play them. A&M hasn't lost a whole lot this season, but they don't have a real good big man to match up with Perry Jones inside. Baylor could certainly pull of the upset once again, but it won't be easy and it will be necessary for Baylor to go dancing.

Duke at Virginia Tech (9pm et): The Dukies are back atop the polls for now, but lately everyone at the top of the polls is having a very hard time winning and staying there. This looks very much like a trap game for the Blue Devils because it is a near must-win for the Hokies. Va Tech seems to be on the wrong side of the bubble each and every season, and a win over Duke on Saturday night would very likely change that this year. Duke is definitely the most talented team in this matchup, but crazier things have happened this season.

SUNDAY 2/27

UConn at Cincinnati (12pm et): The Bearcats have likely locked themselves into an at-large bid with recent wins over Louisville and Georgetown, but you can always be in better shape. UConn is coming off a tough loss to Marquette and will be anxious to get back into the win column. It should be a good game, but look for the Huskies to come out ahead as Cincy hasn't shown an ability to consistently beat the top Big East teams, and picking up a third stright win over a top team seems unlikely.

Xavier at Dayton (1pm et): The Musketeers really have just one major hurdle left between themselves and an A-10 regular season title. That hurdle is the Dayton Flyers. Much less daunting games against Charlotte and St. Louis remain after the game in Dayton this weekend, so this is the real challenge for Xavier. Tu Holloway has been great so far this year, and I expect him to lead the way to victory against a Dayton team that is always tough to beat in their gym.

Purdue at Michigan State (1pm et): The Spartans have begun to get some separation from Minnesota and Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten bubble crowd, but they could still use another big conference win to help them rest easy come Selection Sunday. A win over the Boilermakers would certainly qualify. This game is at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, and the crowd there is normally raucous. Purdue is definitely the better of the two teams, but MSU is always dangerous as the calendar hits the end of February and turns over into March. Kalin Lucas is starting to look like his old self again, and that should worry the Boilers.

Pittsburgh at Louisville (2pm et): The Panthers are still hot on the trail of a number one seed for the big dance, and that means continuing to win. Louisville has been great this season with a dearth of star players, but Pitt has been better. They are the most efficient Big East team, and they are as deep and as physically tough as any team in the country. Just watch Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown driving to the rim or Gary McGhee backing down a defender and tell me this team isn't tough. Rick Pitino has done a great coaching job so far this season, but he may have to be better than he's been to coax a win out of his Cardinals against the Panthers.

Maryland at North Carolina (7:45pm et): This may be the last big opportunity for the Maryland Terrapins to play their way into the tournament. A road win at the "Dean Dome" would be huge for the Terps. The matchup isn't favorable as Maryland's best player Jordan Williams will be up against the strength of the Tar Heels, frountcourt studs Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Maryland likely needs to get this win, but that seems much better in theory than in practice. UNC would have to have a pretty poor game to lose at home to this Maryland squad.

Washington State at Washington (10pm et): The WSU Cougars are the 4th best team in the Pac-10, which for now looks like a 3-bid league. That doesn't put the Cougars in good position right now. This rivalry game with the Huskies could be the best chance Wazzu has to bolster its resume before the Pac-10 tourney. Washington is loaded with talent in Isaiah Thomas, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Abdul Gaddy, but Klay Thompson is no slouch on the other side. This could be a good chance to get a look at a Washington team that hasn't been on TV that much this season, with this game being nationally televised on Fox Sports Net Sunday night.

Those are the games to watch over the next couple of days, and it should be a great weekend of hoops. Hard to know if any of the games will live up to the slugfest between Gonzaga and St. Mary's from Thursday night, but if they come close it will be pretty entertaining television. Enjoy the games and start getting excited for March Madness.

Nuggets lose a game of Chicken with their franchise player

After hearing for the last couple of months all of the speculation swirling around now former Denver Nugget Carmelo Anthony, it's hard not to feel like the Nuggets and 'Melo were engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken and the Nuggets simply swerved first. Both sides really were backed into a corner at the same time, but only Carmelo seemed to realize it. It seems to be widely accepted that the NBA is rapidly headed to a lockout in the upcoming offseason. NBA owners have said they want to lower salaries across the league by a whopping 33%. It seems as if the owners have finally noticed that it is ridiculous to pay the mid-level guys the audacious salaries they are currently making. Here are just a few of the more ludicrous:

Charlie Villanueva, Detroit - $7 million
Andray Blatche, Washington - almost $6 million
Michael Redd, Milwaukee - $18 million (for a guy who is NEVER healthy)
Corey Maggette, Milwaukee - $9.6 million
Samuel Dalembert, Sacremento - $13.4 million (WOW!)

I think you get the idea. That's just from looking at a few teams' payrolls. With that in mind, this lockout is going to end with lower player salaries across the board. There is just about no way around it. If Carmelo were to have stuck it out in Denver and tested free agency, he wound not have gotten anything near the current 3 year/$65 million contract extension he just agreed to with the Knicks. 'Melo knew this. The Nuggets really had Carmelo over a barrell if he didn't want to be a Nugget for the next 3 years. They just didn't seem to know it. They constantly treated the situation as 'We have to trade Carmelo and get something in return rather than let him walk in free agency and get nothing.' Carmelo was unlikely to walk away from this much money. It would have taken a strong desire to get out of Denver to get him to leave the money from that extension on the table and take his chances against the lockout, at least if the Nuggets refused to trade him.

Over the past two weeks it became abundantly clear that the Nuggets were willing to give Anthony what he wanted and trade him out of Denver. Several teams were rumored to be interested including Dallas, Houston, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nets, and the Knicks. Early season reports included the Bulls on that list as well. The only serious options for the deal were New York and New Jersey. Denver talked to both and had offers from both that they could deal with if accepted, but they made it clear they preferred the offer from the Nets, while 'Melo clearly preferred the Knicks. The way Denver gave in and dealt Carmelo to his preferred destination is appalling. The Nuggets had all the leverage in the situation, all of the clout. So why did Carmelo get what he wanted while the Nuggets took the second best offer? The Nuggets got scared first.

The recent events don't really leave another option or reason. The Nuggets still had 3 days left to pull the trigger on the deal when they sent Carmelo to the Knicks. They really should have tested Anthony's resolve a little more. Sure Denver decided a deal had to get done, but that's no reason for the Nuggets to allow Carmelo dictate where he was dealt to. Denver should have put an ultimatum on the star small forward to either sign the extension with the Nets and accept the trade there, or stay a Nugget and take a pay cut at season's end. Even if Carmelo held out, you could still make the Knicks trade at the last minute and get something in return for him. The Nuggets really needed to do more to force their small forward's hand into signing with New Jersey. The Nets deal would have not only improved the starting 5 more than the Knicks deal (or should I say not hurt it as much), but it would have given Denver FOUR 1st round picks. That's a lot. Instead, the Nuggets got too worried too soon and frantically made a deal that they had 3 more days to wait before they had to make it, and as a result, Carmelo is where he wants to be and the Nuggets got a 2nd rate payment for him.

If this were actually a game of chicken, the Denver Nuggets swerved off the road a good 200 yards away from Carmelo, and they certainly end up with the short end of the stick thanks to their lack of intestinal fortitude. Well done guys.