It's bowl season once again and every team that has earned a bid gets one final chance to augment their season with one extra win or diminish it with an extra loss. It's hard to say the bowl system isn't flawed when 70 out of the FBS's 120 teams get to play in a bowl game, but it still makes for some fun and interesting matchups. Things get underway this Saturday with three bowl games to kick off the festivities. For anyone unfamiliar with ESPN's college bowl mania game, with each bowl pick I give, I will include a confidence point number to express how confident I am in the pick. With 35 bowl games slated to be played, 35 points will go to the game I am most certain of and 1 point on the game that I am least certain of. Without further ado, here are my first few bowl picks with an explanation of why for each game.
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. BYU (12/18 2 p.m.)
BYU 33, UTEP 17 - This is a game between two teams headed in the opposite direction. The Cougars opened the season 1-4 before getting things straightened out behind freshman quarterback Jake Heaps. The team finished on a 5-2 run with Heaps really coming into his own in the final 4 games, and the defense came together as well. Heaps averaged almost 250 yards a game over the final 4 contests and posted a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in the process. The Cougar defense allowed only 10 points per game over that stretch after allowing 27 a game for the first 8 outings. As BYU has come together, UTEP has fallen apart. The Miners opened 5-1, then finished 1-5. Conference-USA is hardly daunting, and the weak conference record leads me to believe they will be overmatched in Albequerque by the Cougars. I expect BYU to win easily.
Confidence Points - 30
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (12/18 5:30 p.m.)
NIU 30, Fresno State 23 - Northern Illinois has been fantastic for much of the season, but they were absolutely shocked by Miami (OH) in the MAC title game. The Huskies will be looking to prove that their 10-win season was no fluke, and Fresno will have a hard time stopping them. The Bulldogs have a great pass rush, but NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish will not be a stationary target. Harnish ran for 764 yards this season while star tailback Chad Spann went for over 1,250 yards while scoring 20 rushing touchdowns. It will be on Fresno's defense to slow that running game down. The Redhawks of Miami were able to do so in the MAC Championship, but few others have been able to do the same. In most of these lower bowl games, the deciding factor will be motivation, and it would appear that NIU should have more of that than Fresno. The Bulldogs relish opportunities to take on BCS conference schools in bowl games, and NIU is not even close to being one of those. The Huskies, meanwhile, would secure a school record 11th win if they can take down the Bulldogs. While it might be difficult to focus on the task at hand after the disappointing conference title loss, and then the loss of head coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, I still think this NIU team will rally around the idea that this is the biggest game of their season. I think the Huskies win by a touchdown with that fantastic running game.
Confidence Points - 26
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy (12/18 9 p.m.)
Ohio 27, Troy 17 - Neither team in this game has been overly impressive this season, but both have at least been consistent offensively. Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson set the school record for career touchdown passes this season, and the team had won 7 straight games before a huge letdown against Kent State knocked the Bobcats out of the MAC title game. Ohio will be looking for revenge in their bowl game, and head coach Frank Solich has plenty of bowl experience from his time at Nebraska. Troy is no slouch offensively either. Trojan qb Corey Robinson led the Sun Belt in passing yards and TD tosses, but his penchant for picks will likely be Troy's undoing against an Ohio team that simply will want to win this game more.
Confidence Points - 18
Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville vs. Southern Miss (12/21 8 p.m.)
Louisville 26, Southern Miss 17 - This game will be all about Louisville's Bilal Powell. He will run through, over, and around the Southern Miss defenders en route to a very good game and a big Louisville win. Southern Miss has shown some deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball all year long, and Louisville will certainly be willing to take advantage of those problems. Powell has been one of the best backs in all of college football, and Louisville has played solid defense this season under new head coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals haven't been to a bowl game since 2006 when they were viewed as a powerhouse program and a perennial Big East title contender, and a bowl win to cap this season would be a nice step towards getting back to that level.
Confidence Points - 19
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl : Boise State vs. Utah (12/22 8 p.m.)
Boise State 45, Utah 21 - The Broncos will need some motivating from head coach Chris Petersen to get up for this game after being hopeful of a BCS bid for much of the season. I expect Petersen to have his team ready, though. Utah has not been the same team over the last 3 or 4 games of the season, and on top of that, their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn will not be playing in the bowl game against Boise due to injury. The Broncos will come out prepared and angry, and also ready to prove that their loss to Nevada was an anomaly and not the way they normally play. Kellen Moore, Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Jeremy Avery, and Doug Martin are just too many weapons for a good defense to contain, let alone a defense that has struggled of late. I think Boise will roll in this game, causing several mistakes by Utah's backup quarterback and putting up plenty of points as usual.
Confidence Points - 28
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Navy (12/23 8 p.m.)
Navy 28, San Diego State 24 - This one should be a great game. The Aztecs are enjoying a huge breakthrough season under Brady Hoke after going 10-26 over the past 3 seasons. Quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman have given SDSU a very strong balanced offense. Navy has also been exceptional on the offensive side of the ball, but balance has not been a strength. The Midshipmen run a triple-option offense run by experienced qb Ricky Dobbs who has helped the Middies to some big point totals and big wins this season. The Aztec D has been strong against the run this season but has really let them down in some big games against TCU and Utah. I expect Navy to have some success running the ball, but I also expect them to catch SDSU loading the box against the run and hit on a couple of unexpected downfield passes. the big plays will be the key to the game and I expect Navy to win a close one on the Aztecs' home field.
Confidence Points - 11
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa (12/24 8 p.m.)
Hawaii 48, Tulsa 34 - This game should be very entertaining as both offenses can put up quite a few points, but Hawaii is simply the better team. Bryant Moniz has lit up some defenses that are a bit better than that of Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane will likely get torched as well. With dangerous receivers like Keloha Pilares and Greg Salas, this game will be tough for Tulsa to hang around in. I expect the Rainbow Warriors to jump out to a lead early, and only a couple of Tulsa garbage time touchdowns will make this final score as close as I predict.
Confidence Points - 31
Little Caesar's Bowl - Florida International vs. Toledo (12/26 8:30 p.m.)
FIU 34, Toledo 28 - FIU certainly had its struggles early this season with an 0-4 start, but they were very competitive in losses to teams from higher leagues. Quarterback Wesley Carroll had a really strong year for the Panthers, and their offense seems to have really hit its stride of late. Facing off against a Toledo team that tied for the national lead in takeaways could present a challenge for that offense though. I expect this one to come down to who wants the game more, and I expect that to be FIU. Toledo has been to a decent number of bowl games over the past decade, and the Little Caesar's Bowl is hardly a desirable postseason location for them. For FIU, however, it's the first bowl game the school has ever been invited to, and a win would cap off a phenomenal year for the program. I expect the Panthers to get it done.
Confidence Points - 17
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Georgia Tech (12/27 5 p.m.)
Georgia Tech 20, Air Force 17 - This game is really interesting because both teams play the same offense. One triple-option team is matched against another and these two squads rank first and second in the country in rush yards per game. Many people have written off the Yellow Jackets after a 6-6 season that certainly didn't live up to expectations, but Air Force also is disappointed by their final regular season record. After a strong start to the season, the Falcons lost badly to conference rivals TCU and Utah to really diminish their early season accomplishments. They did finish the year on a 3 game win streak, but that won't matter after a month layoff before the game. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson simply knows how to beat the Falcons. As head coach at Navy, he beat Air Force 5 straight times, and I expect him to continue that streak at Tech. It should be a very interesting game to watch, but I think the Yellow Jackets pull it out.
Confidence Points - 12
That's all of the games for this week, next week I'll have more picks for the upcoming bowl games. Everyone have a safe and happy holiday this week, and enjoy some exciting football action.
No comments:
Post a Comment