Well, it was an interesting first week of bowl action in college football. I feel like I did pretty well in my picks for a lot of the games, but there were a couple I was way off on. It was embarrasing to watch a Frank Solich team be so miserable on defense as the Ohio Bobcats were destroyed by Troy. The Bobcats didn't cover anyone in the passing game, and really struggled to make open field tackles. Speaking of poor defensive performances, I think Tulsa just scored on Hawaii again. The Golden Hurricane rolled up 62 points on Hawaii in a game that went about the opposite of what I had expected. It was Tulsa that jumped out to a big early lead and Hawaii struggling to play catch-up in a blowout loss in their home state. At least BYU, FIU, and Boise State made me look like I know a little bit about what I say in this blog, not to mention Northern Illinois' strong bowl showing. Hopefully I can improve upon my 5-4 record from the first 9 games this week. Same as last week, I will include a final score guess and confidence point total with each prediction with the confidence points ranging from 1 to 35. And the games for this week:
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 p.m.)
West Virginia 26, North Carolina State 20 - This one should be a very competitive game. West Virginia has been a fantastic defensive team while NC State has been very solid on offense with Russell Wilson putting up prolific passing numbers. Wilson is a senior and will want to end his career with a win, but that Mountaineer defense will likely force him into some mistakes. Despite putting up 8 300-yard games this season, Wilson also threw 14 picks on the year, and West Virginia will put pressure on him to add to that number. The Mountaineers were 3rd in the FBS in sacks with 40, and they will do everything they can to get into that NC State backfield and disrupt that passing attack. Geno Smith isn't quite the passer that Wilson is, but he has limited the turnovers for WVU with just 6 INTs on the season. The offense for West Virginia has been far from explosive, but if they execute the way they're supposed to and the defense forces a couple errors by the Wolfpack offense, WVU should be able to score enough points to come out with a win.
Confidence Points - 21 points
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 p.m.)
Iowa 30, Missouri 27 - This one is a total gut call. There are a lot of factors working against the Hawkeyes in this game. Their top running back (Adam Robinson) and top wide receiver (Darell Johnson-Koulianos) are both out for this game with suspensions. Missouri won their final three games to slip back into the top 15 in the polls while Iowa finished on a 3 game skid that included an awful loss to Minnesota to knock them way out of the top 25, so momentum clearly favors the Tigers. Despite those factors, I think Iowa pulls off the upset. Ricky Stanzi has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this year with just 4 interceptions against 25 touchdowns. It also helps that Missouri won't have a ton of film on backup running back Marcus Coker who replaces Robinson. Neither of these teams average giving up even 20 points a game on defense, but I expect both to score a little more than that in this one. Missouri has an explosive offense led by Blaine Gabbert, and they always find a way to score points. Iowa isn't quite as explosive as Missouri, but they will have the element of surprise. This offense will be totally different that the one that Iowa has used for much of the season, and the replacements for the suspended players could really catch the Tigers off guard. Ricky Stanzi is the perfect leader to orchestrate a revamped offense for this game. Iowa has a bad taste in their mouths from how their season ended, and I think they come out fired up and surprise Mizzou.
Confidence Points - 5 points
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (12/29 2:30 p.m.)
Maryland 44, East Carolina 34 - This could be a heck of a shootout. East Carolina had the one of the worst defenses in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game, 118th out of 120 in fact. It was ugly in some of their losses as they averaged allowing 43 points per game. You don't see that very often out of a bowl team. The last team Maryland faced that was even close to that bad in points allowed, they dropped 62 points on the scoreboard in a drubbing of Wake Forest. With almost a month to prepare for this game, the Pirates' defense should be a little better than they normally are, but Maryland will still put up a decent point total. The one thing that can keep ECU in this game is their explosive offensive attack led by Boston College transfer Dominique Davis. Davis has put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard himself this season as the Pirates wouldn't be bowling without beiing able to match all the points they were giving up on the other side of the ball. Davis should be enough to help the Pirates hang around in this one, but that defense likely will be their undoing in a loss to the Terps.
Confidence Points - 27 points
Texas Bowl (12/29 6 p.m.)
Baylor 38, Illinois 33 - This one really could go either way, but I believe the motivation is going to be stronger for Baylor to win this game. The Bears are in their first bowl game in 16 years, and would like to win it to erase memories of their final three regular season games, all losses to ranked divisional foes. Illinois had a very up and down season, playing very well in tough losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Missouri, and in blowout wins over Purdue and Northwestern, but they played poorly in bad losses to Minnesota and Michigan. The Michigan loss was only bad because they failed to play any defense in the game. The Illini have shown an explosive running game behind all-american Mikel Leshoure and quarterback Nate Scheelhaase, but Scheelhaase will have to have a solid passing game agaisnt Baylor to keep the defense honest. Baylor hasn't played as well down the stretch as they would have liked, but they don't have any losses to bad teams like Minnesota. Only Texas Tech can say they beat Baylor and are not in the top 25. Robert Griffin III will be looking to show off his running and passing ability, and while neither team is overpowering on defense, it will be Baylor's offensive balance that will win them this game. Griffin and tailback Jay Finley can run very effectively, and Griffin has a number of targets he can go to in the passing game with 4 different receivers with 40 or more catches on the season. This game will be close, but I think Baylor is the team that comes out with the win in a game that is much closer to home for them than it is for Illinois.
Confidence Points - 14 points
Valero Alamo Bowl (12/29 9:15 p.m.)
Oklahoma State 40, Arizona 31 - Arizona slumps into this game as losers of 4 in a row after a great start to the season. Oklahoma State has only been defeated twice all seson, and it was by the two teams that squared off for the Big 12 title. These teams really don't seem evenly matched when you simply look at the wins and losses, but Arizona was as good as anyone over the season's first 8 or 9 weeks. Nick Foles got hurt, and the team struggled a little bit as they switched back and forth between Foles and backup Matt Scott, but it wasn't the offense that struggled. The Wildcats' defense that ranked in the top 10 in the nation in yards and points allowed through those first 8 games really struggled down the stretch with the potent offenses of Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State is on that level offensively. Their three star players (QB Brandon Weeden, HB Kendall Hunter, and WR Justin Blackmon) were all first-team all-Big 12 players. That trio is hard for any defense to stop, and Arizona is going to learn that the hard way in the Alamo Bowl. It shouldn't hurt that Arizona's head coach is the brother of Bob Stoops, who coaches OSU's biggest rival Oklahoma. It was the loss to the Sooners that knocked the Cowboys out of the conference title game, and squaring off against his brother's team could serve as a way to exact a little revenge.
Confidence Points - 10 points
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 12 p.m.)
Southern Methodist 30, Army 14 - SMU has got a very strong balanced offense behind Zach Line's running and Kyle Padron's passing, and it will be difficult to slow that attack down for Army. Even though this game is called the Armed Forces Bowl, no one at Army came into this season thinking about a bowl game. The biggest game the Black Knights play each season is the one against Navy, which they lost badly a few weeks ago. It will be difficult to come out focused and ready for this game. Army runs a triple-option offense, but it is nowhere near as dynamic as versions run at Air Force, Navy, or Georgia Tech, and I expect SMU to be able to slow it down some. I don't expect Army to do the same to a very dynamic June Jones offense for the Mustangs. SMU won the first bowl they had played in 25 years last season, and a win here to get to 8-6 would be another step forward for a program that has risen from the ashes. Throw in the fact that this game will be played in SMU's home stadium and it just becomes difficult to see Army winning this game.
Confidence Points - 13
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20 p.m.)
Kansas State 24, Syracuse 16 - This is a game between two very similar teams. Both are stingy against the pass and weak against the run on defense, and both are solid rushing teams and mediocre passing teams on offense. The game isn't far from home for Syracuse as it is the first bowl game at the new Yankee Stadium in New York. Syracuse and head coach Doug Marrone would love to christen the stadium with a big bowl win for the in-state team, but Daniel Thomas will likely have something to say about that. While these teams are very similar across the board, no one on Syracuse's team is as good as Daniel Thomas. He should be the difference in a very hard fought, smashmouth football game. I might be giving the Wildcats a little more credit than they deserve with how much confidence I have in this pick, but I still don't buy into the Syracuse Orange as a legitimate solid bowl team.
Confidence Points - 29 points
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40 p.m.)
North Carolina 31, Tennessee 26 - Both of these teams feel lucky to be here at this point after the way their seasons started. Tennessee started off 2-6 before rattling off 4 straight wins to close the season with bowl eligibility in coach Derek Dooley's first season. They really started to find their rhythm when they switched quarterbacks from Matt Simms to Tyler Bray. North Carolina's struggles were more off the field as several Tar Heels were suspended for an academic scandal involving tutors writing papers for players and some of the players having improper contact with agents. At least 14 players missed at least one game for UNC, while 4 were ruled ineligible permanently. Many of their best defensive players were involved, including big-time NFL prospect defensive lineman Marvin Austin. Most people wrote off UNC as the scandal broke in the media. A team that was a major ACC title contender was suddenly being expected to fall apart, and after an 0-2 start against LSU and Georgia Tech, they could have packed it in and made that collapse a reality. These kids didn't do that. They battled back from the poor start and went 7-3 the rest of the way with a couple big wins along the way over Florida State and Clemson. They have been extremely scrappy so far, and it feels like no matter who is sidelined for this team, the players who take the field are going to scratch and claw for the win if they can. Tennessee hasn't had that same fight in them this season, and after battling back to get to 6-6 I think the Vols feel like they have turned this season into a success already. North Carolina isn't as content, and I think the Tar Heels will pull off another victory in this one, even in Tennessee at LP Field.
Confidence Points - 24 points
Bridgepoint Education Hoilday Bowl (12/30 10 p.m.)
Nebraska 38, Washington 21 - This game likely won't be a whole lot different than the first meetings between the two schools. It might be a little closer since Washington has seen what Nebraska can do firsthand, and also has had a few weeks to gameplan for the 'Huskers, but the talent gap is still too wide. Nebraska absolutely shut down Jake Locker in the first meeting while Taylor Martinez ran wild for them. The Huskies should certainly have some motivation to not get destroyed by Big Red again, but it might be tough to avoid. I think Martinez will be close to 100 percent for the first time in several games, and it will be a huge boost for the Nebraska offense, which should win easily again.
Confidence Points - 35 points
Meineke Car Care Bowl (12/31 12 p.m.)
South Florida 27, Clemson 23 - This one could be a sloppy game, and I'm really not sure who is going to win. Both teams have a penchant for playing close, lower scoring games, and both have questions at quarterback. For Clemson, qb Kyle Parker likely is already thinking about baseball season after a 6-6 campaign for the football team. Parker was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in June, but passed on an extra $800,000 to come back for one more season at Clemson before starting that baseball career in Denver. South Florida, meanwhile, has questions due to injury. It seems unlikely that B.J. Daniels will play in the bowl game, which would make the inexperienced Bobby Eveld the starter. Both defenses in this game have been strong all year, which will make the team that avoids giving the ball away more likely to pull this one out. Clemson will likely load up against the running game of Moise Plancher to force USF to throw with Eveld. It will be critical for the Bulls to block Da'Quan Bowers in the passing game so that Eveld has time to be effecive. Bowers led the nation with 15.5 sacks this season, and South Florida will do everything they can to block him. If Clemson uses some creative blitzes, they could really wreak havoc on the young qb, but I don't expect them to do so. The Tigers have been effective so far with the 4 man rush thanks to Bowers incredible talent, and a change in scheme now seems unlikely. Coaching adjustments will likely be the key in a very tough game to pick, and for reasons I really don't understand I like South Florida.
Confidence Points - 2 points
Hyundai Sun Bowl (12/31 2 p.m.)
Notre Dame 28, Miami FL 26 - This is a game that brings back together old rivals from the late 80's when both of these programs were among the nation's elite. They haven't played one another in 20 years now, and a Sun Bowl matchup with both sitting at 7-5 is hardly a way to resurrect a rivalry. Notre Dame looked headed for home without a bowl game as they entered the Utah game coming off a very disappointing loss to Tulsa that cost them starting quarterback Dayne Crist for the season. They were 4-5 with games remaining against a 1-loss Utah team and a very tough USC team that they seemed unlikely to win. This team really came together, however, starting with a blowout win in that Utah game in which they held the Utes to almost no offensive production for much of the day. Brian Kelly really got this team playing with confidence and a little bit of the old Notre Dame swagger despite losing several key offensive players to injury. Miami, on the other hand, spent most of the season ranked and was 7-3 headed into their final 2 games but lost both of them to Virginia Tech and South Florida. Head coach Randy Shannon was axed after the disappointing campaign, and I don't expect the Hurricanes to respond well to that in this bowl game. Quarterback Jacory Harris looked to Shannon as a father figure, and his up and down play really has been the story for this team. When he plays well, the team plays well, and when he doesn't, the team doesn't (13 TD-5 INT in 5 wins as starter, 1 TD-7 INT in 4 losses). I don't expect him to play well in this bowl game. Notre Dame will force a couple of interceptions, and all the Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry in the world will likely not be enough to overcome those errors. I think Brian Kelly gets another win out of this Irish team and a solid 8-5 showing in his debut season.
Confidence Points - 22 points
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 p.m.)
Georgia 37, Central Florida 20 - I am pretty confident that the Bulldogs will pull of this win to end with a winning record for the season. Ever since A.J. Green came back from his 4 game suspension the Bulldogs have been a different team. They lost his first game back to Colorado while they tried to incorporate him into the offense and get the rust off him, but they went 5-2 after that only losing to Florida in overtime and Auburn in a game where they led by 2 touchdowns in the first half. The Bulldogs can flat out score points, and UCF is hardly a dominant defensive football team. They do have a fair amount of offensive firepower with quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who can run and throw well, and running backs Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray up against a Georgia defense that really struggled agaisnt the run the last two regular season games against GT and Auburn. The matchup does pit the two highest rated freshman qbs in the country in passing efficiency, but the big game experience around Murray for Georgia in A.J. Green and Washaun Ealey could be a huge boost for the Bulldogs. I expect Georgia to win this game, and look very good doing so.
Confidence Points - 34 points
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30 p.m.)
South Carolina 23, Florida State 19 - Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses in their respective conference title games. Both boast strong defenses, and both have pretty balanced offenses. Florida State favors Christian Ponder's passing attack just slightly, while South Carolina slightly favors the running game of Marcus Lattimore, but make no mistake, both of these teams can run and pass. The biggest question of this game will be whether or not Christian Ponder can play for the Seminoles. He's been banged up for much of this season and has had fluid drained from his elbow on his throwing arm several times over the past couple months. If Ponder plays, the 'Noles become much more dangerous. If he doesn't, the Gamecocks have a major advantage. I love this matchup as Steve Spurrier has a great history with Florida State from his days coaching the Gators, and Jimbo Fisher has really put his stamp on this Seminole team and had a strong first year to get into this game. I think the hard-nosed running of Marcus Lattimore will be the biggest difference in this game. Lattimore is the best back Spurrier has had in years, and he is really unlike anyone Florida State has already played against this season. You can watch film to get a good idea of how to stop someone, but you can't have Marcus Lattimore on your practice field every day. His punishing running style will wear down this FSU defense, and as long as Stephen Garcia doesn't make any critical mistakes in this game, I like the Gamecocks to come out on top.
Confidence Points - 6 points
That's all the picks for this week. Enjoy the next week of bowl games, there are some good ones. Everyone have a safe and happy new year, and make one of your resolutions to watch more football.
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