Top teams in college hoops still unclear with a week to go

Another crazy week in college basketball is in the books, and an unlikely trend continued to come up: The teams in the top 10 of the polls simply cannot avoid finding ways to lose down the stretch of the season. A couple of weeks ago, 7 of the top 10 lost at least one game, with only Duke, SDSU and BYU coming out unscathed. This week Duke and SDSU took hits as well. Throw in that Pitt lost another game, Texas blew a 22-point lead against Colorado, number 10 Arizona lost twice, and number 11 Georgetown did the same, and it was a bad week to be a good team. If not for narrow escapes, Notre Dame and Wisconsin would be among the defeated this week as well. All of this leads you to ask, 'Where are the dominant teams?' Two weeks ago, ESPN experts were talking about Texas as the best team in the country as they rolled through Big 12 play, and now they've been taken down by a couple average conference foes in Nebraska and Colorado. If these two weeks are any indication of what lies ahead, the tournament could be a real mess by the sweet 16, and in the more immediate future, Kansas and Ohio State had better be careful this week with tough games left. No one wants to go into their conference tournament on a losing streak, even if it's just one game. Here's a quick look at the week that was, and the week ahead:

My top 10 after last week: 1.Ohio State 2.Kansas 3.Duke 4.BYU 5.Pittsburgh 6.Purdue 7.Texas 8.San Diego State 9.Notre Dame 10.Wisconsin

WHO'S HAVING A GOOD WEEK:

St. John's: The Red Storm had more than a good week, thy've had a good month with 6 straight wins, many of them over some of the best teams the Big East could throw at them. They beat Pitt a week ago Saturday on a play where star guard Dwight Hardy likely stepped out of bounds, but no matter, the win stands. They followed that by hammering DePaul and taking care of Villanova in Philly this week, and in the process went from number 34 in votes in the coaches poll 2 weeks ago (behind the likes of Coastal Carolina, St. Mary's, Wichita State, and UTEP) to number 15 entering this week. That's quite a climb in such a short period.

Dwight Hardy: He bears mentioning separate from the team for the ridiculous numbers he's put up during the winning streak. Over the last 9 games (in which SJU is 8-1) Hardy has scored 24 points a game on over 50% shooting and 50% on the dot from beyond the arc. He is the biggest part of the St. John's turnaround this year under Steve Lavin.

Reeves Nelson, UCLA: The Bruins athletic forward had a huge week in two big wins for UCLA, putting up 12 points and 12 boards in a comfortable win over Arizona State, and then piling up 27 and 16 in a blowout win over Arizona that knotted the Bruins with the Wildcats atop the Pac-10 standings. It was nice to see UCLA get some wins by big margins after seeing them play so many close games against lesser competition this season.

Virginia Tech: What a difference a week makes. The Hokies were in a terrible position a week ago after letting the Virginia Cavaliers complete a season sweep of them. Beating Duke on Saturday makes up for that loss and puts Va. Tech right back on track to be playing in the big dance. Nothing is certain yet for the Hokies, but they have to like their chances much better today than they did before Saturday's win.

BYU: The Cougars finished off the season sweep of the San Diego State Aztecs last Saturday in the biggest game of the weekend, and thanks to the struggles of the teams ahead of them are now in the driver's seat for a number one seed in the tournament. It's likely they will have to get to the finals of the MWC tournament and face SDSU one more time to lock up a one seed, but even a loss in that third matchup shouldn't bump them from the one line. Jimmer and the Cougars are certainly far ahead of where anyone expected them to be at the season's outset.

WHO"S NOT HAVING A GOOD WEEK:

Texas: The Longhorns have no excuse that can explain away the collapse against Alec Burks and the Buffs, and the choke job likely cost them a number one seed. That could be a good thing since Rick Barnes's teams struggle with high expectations in the tourney, but the confidence of that vaunted defense could be shot after the 91 points they allowed Colorado to drop on them. It will be crucial for Texas to regroup and refocus as they still have to take on Kansas State and Baylor before the Big 12 tournament.

Georgetown: The Hoyas dropped two big games this week to Cincinnati and to hated rival Syracuse, and even worse, lost starting point guard Chris Wright to a broken hand for the next couple of weeks. Even though role players like Nate Lubick and Julian Vaughn stepped up with Wright out, it still wasn't enough to pull out a win this week. The Hoyas will be in serious trouble if Wright takes longer than expected to get back out there.

Boston College: The Eagles lost a game they really couldn't afford to lose at home against Miami. Now they likely have to win their remaining games at Virginia Tech and home against Wake Forest and also have a good showing in the ACC tournament to like their at-large chances. Not a good position to be in for such an inconsistent team.

Villanova: The Wildcats have got to get out of this late season swoon. They've dropped four of their last six, and the two wins were close against Big East bottom-feeders. Things don't get any easier this week with games against the top two teams in the conference on the road, Pitt and Notre Dame. The Wildcats definitely need to win one of those games to have any confidence going into the Big East tourney at MSG.

Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers (I love that mascot) have been pretty dominant in the Big South conference this season, at least until the last 2 weeks. After opening league play 14-0, CCU has dropped 2 of their last 4, including one to the league's worst team, Gardner-Webb. This is a Chanticleer squad that won the regular season title last year in the Big South only to lose in the conference tournament, and the recent struggles make them appear beatable once again. They draw Gardner-Webb once again to open the conference tournament, and avenging the loss will hopefully get this squad back on track to the NCAAs.

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK:

Monday 2/28:

Villanova @Notre Dame (7pm et): The Wildcats are absolutely falling apart while Notre Dame survived a couple tough games last week without a loss. Both teams are locks for the tournament, but Villanova's seed is in a free fall right now. If they can't win one of their final 2 regular season games, they could fall all the way to a 7 or 8 seed. These teams are both perimeter oriented, but the key for 'Nova will be to speed up the game. Notre Dame plays smart, but they are not as athletic as the Wildcats. If the Wildcats use that advantage, they could certainly pull off the win in South Bend.

Kansas State @ Texas (9pm et): Texas needs to stop the bleeding after some recent struggles, and K-State is finally playing like the team they were supposed to be at the start of the year. The frontcourt is finally coming together as well with improved play by Rodney McGruder and a few others. Texas will need Dogus Balbay to clamp down on Jacob Pullen for Texas to win this one. It should be one of the best games of the week, and a meaningful one to both squads. Expect a lot of emotion and intensity on both sides.

Tuesday 3/1:

Illinois @ Purdue (7pm et): The Fighting Illini haven't had a lot of fight lately. Their tournament status may be in jeopardy if they continue to struggle down the stretch. Now, Illinois isn't expected to win at Purdue, but winning this game will put an end to all the questions about whether or not the Illini are on the bubble or in the field. They will most certainly be in if they can beat the Boilers. That won't be very easy for a team that gets lazy on offense squaring off against one of the most intense defensive schemes in all of college basketball. Look for the Boilers to win by double digits and keep Illinois in flux as far as the tourney goes.

Alabama @ Florida (7pm et): This has become a must win game for Anthony Grant's team after slipping up against Ole Miss over the weekend. The Crimson Tide had a nice run in SEC play, but that run may be over. The Gators are very tough to beat in Gainsville, and they will be playing angry after getting soundly beaten at Rupp Arena on Saturday. Florida's balance in the starting five makes them very tough to beat, and Alabama isn't likely to be the type of team that can take them down. This one probably ends 'Bama's at-large hopes.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7pm et): This is now a "just don't lose" game for the Bears. Beating Texas A&M gave Baylor some hope once again for the big dance, and they get a shot at Texas at home to close the regular season, but they cannot afford a slip-up against the Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater. It's never an easy task to win at Oklahoma State, and Baylor big man Perry Jones will have his hands full with Marshall Moses inside, but the Bears have some weapons on the perimeter in LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy who should give them enough for another win. A loss here would be devastating.

Missouri @ Nebraska (8pm et): Mizzou gets one more shot to beat a team on the road in the Big 12 that is not Iowa State. The Tigers are just 1-6 in league road games after playing only 1 true road game in the nonconference (a win over Oregon). On the flip side of that coin, Nebraska is very strong at home. The 'Huskers are 5-2 at home in the Big 12 and 16-2 at home overall. Nebraska plays a very physical, grinding defense under Doc Sadler, and Missouri likes to get out and run. The contrasting styles should be fun in this one. Whichever side does a better job on the defensive end of not allowing buckets, which allow their opponent to set up on defense better, will have the edge in this one and likely win. Turnovers and field goal percentage will be the key stats in this one. Mizzou needs to get over this road thing before the tourney starts, because they will not be playing postseason games in Columbia.

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (9pm et): This game is just a good matchup. There is very little at stake for each team aside from momentum at the end of the season and minor seeding implications. Both teams will certainly be in the tournament. The Wildcats have a ridiculous win streak going at Rupp Arena, but Vandy is a veteran team that can pull off the upset. John Jenkins has been shooting the lights out for the Commodores, and Vandy can defend Liggins, Knight and Miller on the outside. The key will be if Vanderbilt can contain Terrence Jones's scoring and Josh Harrelson's rebounding inside. Vandy's Lance Goulbourne and Festus Ezeli will have their hands full in this one.

Ohio State @ Penn State (9pm et): This is the Buckeyes' last road test of the season, and Penn State is dangerous at home when they get hot. PSU likely will have no answer for Sullinger inside or any of the OSU shooters. The Nittany Lions can get lost on defense when the offense runs effective ball screens, and they have few offensive weapons beyond Taylor Battle. This would be a huge upset for PSU if they can get it, but a double-digit loss is much more likely.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9pm et): This game is a big one for both of these teams. The Hokies should be brimming with confidence after taking down Duke at home last Saturday, and Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen and Victor Davila are really starting to play well together for VT. Boston College is in slightly worse position than Tech with no wins over Duke or UNC, so a win here feels like a must. The Eagles beat the Hokies by just 2 points in Chestnut Hill a few weeks ago, so these teams are pretty evenly matched. I think the Hokies are coming together at the right time, and edge the Eagles at home to stay on the right side of the bubble for now.

Wednesday 3/2:

North Carolina @ Florida State (7pm et): The 'Noles have struggled since losing Chris Singleton. They're winning the games they are expected to, but they did get thumped by the Terps in Maryland last week. Their tournament status still seems safe, but who knows how much weight the committee will give to this stretch without their star player, since it seems unlikely he will return for the tourney. A win over UNC would certainly make things a little more comfortable in Tallahassee. That win will be tough though, as North Carolina is really playing great ball lately, winning 10 of 11 with the only loss being to Duke.

Connecticut @ West Virginia (7pm et): The Huskies and Mountaineers have both been up and down in Big East play, and both would like to go into the Big East tournament on an upswing. More importantly, both would like to go into the Big East tournament with a bye into the second round. Both currently sit at 9-7 in league play, in a 5-way tie for 7th place. Two of those 5 teams will get a bye in the tournament. A win in this game will be a big step forward towards that bye for WVU or UConn. The key matchup will likely be Jeremy Lamb guarding Casey Mitchell. WVU can struggle to score at times, and Mitchell is a huge catalyst when he is on. Lamb has great length to defend that outside shot, and how WVU counters the UConn defense will be a huge factor in the game's outcome.

UAB @ Southern Miss (7pm et): The Blazers are the one real hope left for C-USA to get a team into the dance as an at-large, but for that to happen, they cannot lose another game before the C -USA tournament final. Southern Miss has been one of the better Conference USA squads this season, so this one will be tough for UAB. Mike Davis has been a great coach down in Birmingham over the past few years, and I like him to get his team to this big road win.

Cincinnati @ Marquette (8pm et): While both Cincy and Marquette look like they will be in the tournament at season's end, that would mean 11 teams from the Big East are in. There is little question that these two teams are numbers 10 and 11 in the league in terms of tourney resume strength, and the loser of this game will likely be viewed as number 11. If the committee has any qualms about putting 11 squads from one league in the tournament, the loser of this game could get the short end of the stick. This game also has implications for a first round bye in the Big East tournament as these teams are also in the 5-way tie. Dion Dixon and Yancy Gates are a tough inside-outside combo for Cincy, but Darius Johnson-Odom, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and the rest of Marquette are always tough to beat.

Clemson @ Duke (9pm et): Clemson is hanging on to the bubble by a thread. A win over the Dukies might put them on a little better footing on that bubble. It certainly won't be easy though, as Duke is just about unbeatable at Cameron Indoor Arena. Look for Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to light up Clemson and roll to victory.

Texas A&M @ Kansas (9pm et): The Jayhawks are back up to number 2 in the nation after playing pretty well last week while A&M slipped up against Baylor over the weekend. The Jayhawks are still missing Thomas Robinson, and this A&M squad is pretty solid, but they will struggle to match up with the Morris twins inside. If they can contain Marcus and Markeiff, they will have a chance at the big road upset, and to throw a wrench into the Jayhawks plans for a one seed.

New Mexico @ BYU (10pm et): BYU has their sights set on a one seed, and losing to New Mexico is not an option if they want to do that. The Lobos have played their way out of at-large consideration over the past few weeks, but Steve Alford's squad is still dangerous. BYU should be careful, but Jimmer is as tough to stop as ever and the Cougars should come out on top.

Just Don't Lose Games: Several teams on the fringe of the bubble have games on Wednesday night that they can't afford to lose if they want to stay on the bubble. Those games are:

Iowa @ Michigan State (7pm et): Spartans lost by 20 in Iowa City.
Memphis @ East Carolina (7pm et): Tigers don't have a lot of hope, but still a little
Maryland @ Miami (7pm et): Terps still alive, but they won't be if they lose to the 'Canes.
Richmond @ St. Joe's (7pm et): The Spiders are in decent shape, but St. Joe's is not good.
Colorado @ Iowa State (7:30pm et): Buffs back from the dead after beating Texas.
LSU @ Georgia (8pm et): The Bulldogs need to beat the teams they're supposed to
Minnesota @ Northwestern (8:30pm et): The Gophers are desperate for a win
Utah @ Colorado State (9pm et): The Rams have no margin for error after losing to BYU, SDSU
Utah State @ New Mexico State (11pm et): No margin for error for Utah State either

Thursday 3/3:

Tennessee @ South Carolina (7pm et): The Vols have been up and down this year, both on and off the court, but Joe Lunardi still has this team solidly in the tournament as an 8 seed right now. I'm not so sure they are a certainty. Going to South Carolina to play the Gamecocks could be dangerous for Tennessee. Darrin Horn's team is always going to give a strong effort, and Tennessee is very capable of putting up an off night, especially with all the dristractions from the recruiting violations the school is accused of.

Oregon State @ Arizona (9pm et): The Wildcats need to get back on track after losing two games last week, one by a big margin. Oregon State normally plays tough, but the Wildcats will play angry and should take care of business against the Beavers.

UCLA @ Washington (9pm et): This is the biggest game on Thursday, and it should be a fun one. The Bruins need the win to have a shot at the Pac-10 regular season title, but the Huskies may be getting to the point that they need this win to make sure they get into the tournament. U-Dub has a lot of talent, but they don't seem to play the same from one game to the next. UCLA has started to find their consistency behind Reeves Nelson, and this matchup could be an uphill battle for the Huskies.

USC @ Washington State (10pm et): The Trojans have been an enigma this season. They have some huge wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State as well as a near miss at Kansas. They also have inexplicable losses. They managed to lose to Rider, Bradley, and TCU in the nonconference as well as Oregon State, Cal, and twice to Oregon in league play. It adds up to an NIT team, but it would still be a nice win for Washington State if they can get it. The Cougars really need to keep winning down the stretch to keep any slim at-large hopes they have alive. Klay Thompson is a star, but he needs his teammates to step up and help him get a big home win over USC. A win here and then over UCLA, and people will have to take notice of Wazzu.

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS:

While most of the big boys have another week of conference games before the postseason tourneys begin, the small conferences get ready to lace 'em up for conference tourney games this week. Most of these tournaments don't make national headlines until a winner is crowned, but those automatic bids can certainly make life miserable for some big name teams in the first round. Here is a look at the conference tourneys that get going this week.

Horizon League: March 1st, 4th-5th, 8th - campus sites
Favorite: Butler. Despite struggles this season that had the Bulldogs in the middle of the Horizon pack for part of the year, they rebounded late to get the number 2 seed in the conference tournament to get a double-bye to the semifinals. Ronald Nored, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard are a great veteran core that makes this squad the most talented team in the Horizon, and one that should be expected to win the league tournament.
Sleeper: Cleveland State. The Vikings have shown flashes of being a great team for the Horizon league and Norris Cole has put up some ridiculous numbers at times this season. While UW-Milwaukee has the double-bye to the semi's it's Cleveland State who poses the biggest threat to Butler. They should be in a rhythm by the semifinals while Butler will have been sitting for a week getting rusty. That should be a great matchup for Cole and the Vikes.
Player to Watch: Norris Cole, Cleveland State. There's more than just a flat-top haircut on this kid that merits a second look. Cole is capable of putting up 30+ points on any given night, and he can rebound and pass as well. If the Vikings are going to go dancing, they will do so on Cole's back.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. If Butler wins, they have plenty of experience in the tourney as last year's runner-up to Duke. Their slow-down style will keep them in any game if they are hitting their 3's, and they just know how to win tournament games. They have a proven track record as a program of knocking off the big boys in March. The Sweet 16 is a real possibility. If it's Cleveland State, Norris Cole always gives you a puncher's chance. With a favorable matchup, the Vikings can certainly pull of a first round upset as well.

Big South: March 1st, 3rd, 5th - campus sites
Favorite: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are 16-2 in league play and are the clear favorite to represent the league in the tournament. It bears mentioning that they did drop 2 games in the last 2 weeks and lost in this tournament as the favorites last year, but they likely have learned their lesson and are poised to take care of business this time around.
Sleeper: UNC-Asheville. You would expect 2-seed Liberty here, but they have dropped 4 straight to close the regular season, and so UNCA is the default sleeper. No one is likely to take down CCU, but UNCA is as good a pick as any to be the team that might take the Chanticleers down.

Player to Watch: Desmond Holloway, CCU. The junior guard has been Coastal Carolina's best player and will certainly be a big factor if CCU is to get to the NCAAs. He's averaging 18.5 points and 7 boards a game for the Chanticleers, and will likely play big in the Big South tourney.

NCAA Tourney win chances:OK. It depends on the seed and matchup for CCU, as a 15 or 16 seed is likely a death sentence, but a 13 or 14 gives them a shot. The Chanticleers are experienced, and could really make a game of it if they hang around with their first round opponent into the second half.



Atlantic Sun: March 2nd-5th - Macon, GA

Favorite: Belmont. The Bruins are the clear favorites for the conference tourney title after a 19-1 regular season conference mark, and there isn't even a close second. This team is very balanced and should be tough for any A-Sun team to take out.

Sleeper: East Tennessee State. The Pirates were second in the A-Sun at 16-4, and seem like the only team other than Belmont with a realistic shot of winning in Macon. The chances are not great after being beaten by the Bruins by 10 each time they met during the season, but no one else really has any chance.

Player to Watch: Mike Smith, ETSU. Smith is the Pirates leading scorer at nearly 17 points a game to go along with 7 boards and 2 assists. at 6-6, the senior guard has the size to be a weapon against Belmont in the finals. He will have to play very well in that game for ETSU to have a chance.

NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Belmont has had some run-ins with high seeds in the tourney in the past, and they normally put a scare into them. This squad is balanced and well coached, and 3 of their 4 losses were by single digits to Tennessee (twice, once by just a point) and and Vanderbilt. The Bruins are certainly capable of pulling off a first round upset and should be a team to keep an eye on when the field is announced.



Ohio Valley Conference: March 2nd-5th - Nashville, TN

Favorite(s): Murray State, Morehead State: The Racers won this tourney last year and Morehead won it the year before. The Racers are the number one seed after winning the regular season title by just a game, beating the Eagles last Thursday. Expect these two to meet in the finals without question. Anyone else getting there would be at least a mild surprise.

Sleeper: Austin Peay. The Governors are tied in the standings with Morehead State and are the 3 seed in this tournament. They have some experience of their own in the big dance over the past decade or so, but this isn't their tourney to win. They have to take it from first Morehead in the semis, then Murray St. in the finals.

Player to Watch: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State. Faried broke Tim Duncan's NCAA record for career rebounds this season and he really is the Morehead State team. Few squads this season have had an answer for him this year, and few in the conference tourney will. Faried is averaging 17.6 points, a ridiculous 14.2 rebounds, 2 steals and 2.1 blocks per game for the season. Few players can match that kind of stat line for one night, let alone for a season.

NCAA Tourney Win Chances: Low. Unfortunately for the OVC, Murray St. and Morehead St. failed to really impress in the nonconference, and the balance at the top with the Racers, Eagles, Governors and even Tennessee Tech have kept any of these teams from an impressive resume. As a result, these teams are looking at a 15 or 16 seed should they win. Most 1 or 2 seeds will be able to find an answer for Kenneth Faried. Murray State could pose a tougher test for a 2 seed as they are very experienced, returning most of a squad that upset Vandy in the first round a year ago, and they have great balance. A win is unlikely for the Racers, but they have a better shot at an upset than the Eagles.



Patriot League: March 2nd, 6th, 11th - campus sites

Favorite: Bucknell. The Bison are heavy favorites after going 13-1 in the Patriot league, and they definitely would like to get back to the big dance this year. Few teams pose a serious threat, but anything can happen in this one-and-done scenario.

Sleeper: Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks don't jump out as a sleeper in this field with a losing conference record and the number 4 seed in the tournament, but they did get into the tournament a year ago and certainly could catch Bucknell looking ahead to 2 seed American University in the semis. It would be a shocker Lehigh went dancing again, but this team is a sleeper for one main reason: C.J. McCollum.

Player to Watch: C.J. McCollum, Lehigh. McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who averages almost 22 points and just under 8 rebounds a game, and can be a real thorn in the side of Bucknell in the semifinals, and American if they get to the finals. If the Mountain Hawks are to live up to the sleeper status, it will be because of McCollum.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Bucknell has some past tournament success advancing to the second round two straight years a little while back, but this Bison team is not one of those two. Bucknell will likely be a 15 or 16 seed, and will have little to no shot at an upset. The chances are lower if anyone else wins, as anyone not named Bucknell will likely be put in a play-in game just to get a crack at a 1 seed.



America East: March 3rd, 5th-6th, 12th - Burlington, VT

Favorite: Vermont. The Catamounts are the class of the league this season, and should be the team expected to win the automatic bid. The Terriers of Boston should be considered as well as the 2 seed, but this tourney is Vermont's to lose.

Sleeper: Maine. This is a difficult to peg Black Bear team. They lost 5 of their first 6 games, then won 12 of 14 games including wins over Penn State and each of the other top 4 America East teams. They then proceeded to drop 6 out of their last 7 to fall to the number 3 seed in the tourney. If they can recapture the magic they found in the middle of the season, Maine can make a run in this thing.

Player to Watch: John Holland, Boston U. He's the best scorer on any of the top America East teams at over 19 points per game, and the forward also chips in 5.7 rebounds. He will have to play well to give the Terriers a good shot at winning the automatic bid.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Vermont is the only squad here that could pull of a first round win, and that would take everything in that game going perfectly for them. Don't expect it and don't pick an AEC team to get to the second round.



Northeast Conference: March 3rd, 6th, 9th - campus sites

Favorite: Long Island. The Blackbirds run this league for now with a 16-2 conference mark, which gave them a 3 game edge over number 2 Quinnipiac. There are a handful of teams that could be dangerous to LIU in this one, but they are unlikely to unseat this one seed.

Sleeper: Robert Morris. The Colonials are the one of the 2 teams that handed LIU a loss during the season, and they would certainly like another chance to get the Blackbirds in the finals, they would have to get past Quinnipiac in the semis, which is not an impossible task. The Bobcats and Colonials are separated by just a game in the NEC standings.

Player to Watch: Ken Horton, Central Conn. St. This bruising forward averages 20 points, 9 boards, 2 dimes and 1.6 blocks for the Blue Devils and could be a very tough matchup for the Blackbirds in the semifinals. If LIU doesn't come in focused, CCSU could be sending them home early in this tournament.

NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Blackbirds would be the only NEC team that would dodge a 16 seed, and that's not even for sure. They still could get a 16 as well, but a 15 seems more likely. A first round matchup with any of the 2 seeds would likely still result in a first round loss for LIU. Don't expect much from the NEC champ.



Missouri Valley Conference, March 3rd-6th - St. Louis, MO

Favorite(s): Missouri State, Wichita State. The Bears won the regular season title and took down number 2 seed Wichita State twice in the process. Neither team has secured an at-large bid at this point, so if they meet in the finals, look for a very spirited matchup that could go either way. Beating a team three times in a row is a very difficult task when the talent level is evenly matched.

Sleeper: Evansville. Creighton and Northern Iowa are certainly more likely to come out of this with an automatic bid than the Purple Aces, but the Aces are more of a wild card. Their overall record and conference record are a picture of mediocrity at .500 in both, but they have some surprising wins under their belt. They have beaten Butler, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Indiana State this season, all teams with better records, and all but Butler higher seeds in the MVC tourney. If the Aces get hot, they can certainly do some damage in St. Louis. They draw Indiana State first, and a win there gets them a shot at Wichita State, one of the few MVC teams they haven't beat yet.

Players to Watch: Kyle Weems, Missouri St., Kwadzo Ahelegbe, No. Iowa. Weems has been the key for the regular season champion Bears scoring 16.3 points and grabbing 7 rebounds a game and being the key frontcourt presence for Missouri State. He will have to continue his consistent play for the Bears to win the tournament and get the at-large bid. Ahlegebe is one of the Panthers remaining from last year's sweet 16 team, and he has been strong in MVC play, scoring over 15 points a game and being the catalyst of UNI's offense. For the Panthers to have any chance of getting back to the dance, Ahelegbe will have to be on his game.

NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Both Missouri State and Wichita State are capable of pulling off an upset. No one below the top 3 lines is a sure bet to get to the second round, and whichever team gets out of this league will likely be a 12 or 13 seed and have a real shot at an upset. Northern Iowa would also be a tough tourney draw in the first round.



Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: March 4th-7th - Bridgeport, CT
Favorite: Fairfield. The Stags are the 1 seed and are the best bet to come out of the Metro Atlantic. Siena has fallen way down the standings after dominating this league the past couple of seasons, and a new crop of teams has climbed to the top. Fairfield, at 15-3 in MAAC play is the best of that crop.
Sleeper: Iona. The Gaels are the 3 seed in this tournament, but they are on a tear, winning 7 straight coming into this. 2 seed Rider has won 5 straight of their own, but Iona is brimming with confidence after closing the regular season with a win over Fairfield. Both are capable of topping the Stags again, but look for the Gaels to be the squad that gets to the final.
Player to Watch: Ryan Rossiter, Siena. The Saints are not going to be expected to win more than their opening game, but they won't be an easy out for their second round opponent. Rossiter has been there for the past 2 tournament berths for Siena, and he is a dangerous inside presence for them. He's averaged 19 points and 13.3 rebounds on the season, and he could certainly carry the Saints to a win or 2 in the conference tournament.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Low. The MAAC has a history of pulling off upsets in the dance and at least scaring teams early, but this year's Metro Atlantic squads don't seem quite as good as those from years past. Siena had some great talent when they knocked off Ohio State, and Manhattan had a very strong team led by guard Luis Flores in 2003 when they nearly stunned Syracuse in the opening round before the Orange went on to the national title. Fairfield doesn't have that type of talent, and likely will be exiting in the first round.

Southern Conference: March 4th-7th - Chattanooga, TN
Favorite: College of Charleston. The Cougars are the class of the SoCon led by coach Bobby Cremins, and that should show up in the tournament, but there are a lot of other teams that would like a say in this one. Charleston has put a scare into a few big conference teams this year, and should be well tested for this end of the season tourney.
Sleeper: Davidson. Coach Bob McKillop has been very successful in this tourney in recent years, and his Wildcats may be flying under the radar this season. There are other dangerous teams in Wofford and Furman, but it's the Wildcats I would be keeping an eye on.
Player to Watch: Andrew Goudelock, C of C. Goudelock is likely the best player you have never heard of. If you haven't seen him play, you should make time to watch him as he is fantastic. The Cougar guard is a scoring machine dropping 23 points a game and chipping in 4.7 assists and 3.7 boards. He is the reason the Cougars are the favorites and should carry them into the NCAAs.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Somewhat high. Bobby Cremins's squad hasn't pulled off any top level upsets but they have pushed Maryland, North Carolina, and Clemson to the brink. Goudelock isn't the kind of transcendent talent that Steph Curry was who can carry a team to the Elite 8, but he can certainly carry them to one win if he gets going. As usual, it depends on who they match up with, but if they can avoid an elite defensive guard in the first round for Goudelock to match up with, the Cougs can make some noise.

West Coast Conference: March 4th-7th - Las Vegas, NV
Favorite(s): Gonzaga, St. Mary's. There is no question what this tournament is about. the Gaels and Bulldogs split the season series and tied atop the conference at season's end. Both teams feel like they belong in the big dance, and a third matchup between the two to make sure of a berth for one feels inevitable. Both teams will receive double byes and need only one win to square off against the other in the finals next Monday. If last Thursday's showdown in Moraga was any indication, a rematch would be explosive.
Sleeper: San Franciso. The Dons were the third place team in the WCC, and they have a win over Gonzaga under their belt. They haven't been able to beat St. Mary's this year, but it would take until the finals before they would play the Gaels. A bye into the 2nd round of the tournament also is a positive for San Fran.
Players to Watch: Robert Sacre, Gonzaga, Matthew Dellavedola, St. Mary's. These two were both so good in the last meeting between the Zags and Gaels that it wouldn't do them justice to not mention them here. No one on SMC can match up inside with Sacre, who had his way in the low blocks in Moraga. Dellavedola meanwhile, thrives on defenses paying too much attention to star guard Mickey McConnell. He challenges Ohio State's Jon Diebler for the quickest release on a jump shot in the country. If Dellavedola gets just a little bit of space on the perimeter, the ball is going in most of the time.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are capable of doing serious damage in March. The Gaels went to the sweet 16 a year ago, and while they lost Omar Samhan, they are still capable of winning a game or 2 yet again. Gonzaga can do the same now that they have found a point guard in John Stockton's son to go along with Elias Harris, Steven Gray, and big man Sacre inside.

Colonial Athletic Association: March 4th-7th - Richmond, VA
Favorite: George Mason. The Patriots are winners of a remarkable 15 games in a row, and they have gotten better and gained confidence as the season has gone on. They lack any big wins out of conference, but they have dominated in Colonial play. This team is very solid on the defensive end, and they rebound well. The offense can stall at times, but they have been finding their rhythm down the stretch. Old Dominion would like to have something to say about Mason's favorite status, but to do so they are gonna have to beat them.
Sleeper: James Madison. The Dukes have won several big games in the Colonial including a huge late season win over VCU, and they have played George Mason and Old Dominion tough. This team is capable of surprising some people in this tournament, and if they get by Hofstra or VCU in their second game, they could certainly put a scare into Old Dominion in the semis.
Player to Watch: Andre Cornelius, GMU. This little guard doesn't have great numbers on the season, but he is a spark plug who is giving the offense a lift down the stretch with his outside shooting. I guarantee he hits a few big late-game threes in this tournament, perhaps even one or two in the final, a final I expect the Patriots to win.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very, very good. Old Dominion is very capable of winning a first round game, and with a favorable draw, maybe 2. George Mason might be thinking even bigger. Jim Larranaga's team went to the Final Four just 5 years ago, and they would love to make a similar run this year. The way the Patriots are playing right now, they are a nightmare draw for just about anyone. They are efficient and very capable of beating better teams than they have played so far. Look for Mason to get out of the first round and have a good chance at the Sweet 16.

Sun Belt Conference: March 5th-8th - Hot Springs, AR
Favorite: Florida Atlantic. Former St. John's coach Mike Jarvis looks like he's headed back to the NCAA tournament just as his old team gets itself back to glory. The Owls were the Sun Belt regular season champs at 13-3, and are the prohibitive favorites to win the tournament, but this thing could be wide open.
Sleeper: North Texas. The Mean Green are an odd choice at 7-8 in Sun Belt play, but they have a strong overall record and can really make some noise if they get on a roll. Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State are also dangerous, but the Mean Green are the defending tourney champs.
Player to Watch: Tristan Thompson, North Texas. Not the Tristan Thompson from the Longhorns of Texas, this one is a guard and the offensive catalyst for North Texas. He's having a great season, scoring 17 points a game and shooting over 40% from 3. The Mean Green need him to play very well, and they can challenge anyone in this wide open conference tournament field.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Sun Belt doesn't exactly have a rich history of winning if Western Kentucky isn't the representative in the NCAAs. It seems unlikely WKU will get there, and whoever does will be a huge underdog in their first game. Just about no chance that underdog gets a win.

Summit League: March 5th-8th - Sioux Falls, SD
Favorite: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies played an absolute gauntlet in the nonconference to be better prepared for the Summit schedule and for the NCAA tourney. They came close but just short against Michigan State and Valpo, and beat Tennessee. They also took on Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and West Virginia outside of Summit league action. All those tough games led to an easy 17-1 run through conference play, and make Oakland a heavy favorite to cruise to an automatic bid.
Sleeper: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are always a tough team in the Summit tournament. IUPUI is the one team that bested Oakland in league play, but Oral Roberts played them close twice. If anyone can stop the Golden Grizzlies from running roughshod over the competition in the tournament, it is ORU.
Player to Watch: Keith Benson, Oakland. Benson is easily the best player in the Summit League and the best low post player in any smaller conference in the midwest. In Summit play, the Grizzlies' center averages 18.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and an alarmingly impressive 4.4 blocks per game. Throw in that he shoots 57% from the field, and it's time to just hand the guy conference player of the year. Anyone who wants to beat Oakland had better find ways around Benson, or to get him sidelined with foul trouble.
NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Oakland is the only Summit team that has a chance of a first round upset, but it's not a bad chance. They are certainly not going to get a 16 seed, so they will have a fighting chance. If they are lucky enough to draw a high seed without a good inside presence like Georgetown or BYU, they can put a scare into that opponent. At any rate, their experience against the nation's elite should make them a tough out and make their game fun to watch.

College hoops weekend preview

As the calendar prepares to roll over into March, things are heating up around the college basketball world. Pressure is heightening, bubbles are shrinking and in some cases bursting, and desperate teams are running out of chances to score big wins that could get them into the tournament. Over the past week, several bubble teams have put themselves in great position for at-large berths, particularly Kansas State, Michigan State and Gonzaga, while the teams they beat to get in that great position are in trouble. Nebraska, Minnesota and St. Mary's all slipped up in those games and now face uphill battles to at-large tournament bids. There is certainly still time before the field is set, but not a whole lot. Here's a look at the big games to watch for the upcoming weekend and why they are so big:

SATURDAY 2/26

Syracuse at Georgetown (12pm et): This game should be about Syracuse trying to avenge an earlier defeat at home against the Hoyas, but recent events have changed that. With the recent injury to guard Chris Wright, the Hoyas are certainly in trouble. He should be back in time for the tournament, but the team will have to get by for a few games without him. Syracuse is really locked in right now as their young players continue to improve, and beating Georgetown would allow this squad to gain some confidence as the big dance approaches.

Missouri at Kansas State (12pm et): The Wildcats seem to have gotten back on track after some serious struggles throughout the season by topping Kansas and Nebraska in their last 2 games, and continuing that roll with a win over Missouri would pretty much ensure K-State a spot in the tournament. Bramlage Coliseum is definitely a tough environment for a road foe to win in, so the opportunity for the Wildcats is good. The chances of a K-State win seem even better when you consider that Missouri has only one road win in conference play all season, and it was over lowly Iowa State. The matchup looks good for KSU, but this could be just the win the Tigers need to get the road monkey off their back. Either way it should be a very good game.

Wichita State at Missouri State (1pm et): It's pretty simple to explain why this is a big game. The winner is the regular season Missouri Valley conference champion. The Bears won at Wichita State earlier in the season, so you would expect them to be favored at home, but this game should be a doozy. Neither team has done enough so far this season that they should plan on an at-large bid, but a regular season title would certainly be a leg-up on the other should someone else win the conference tournament.

BYU at San Diego State (2pm et): This is a clash of the Mountain West titans, and the winner should still be alive for a number one seed in the NCAA tournament if they can win the conference tournament as well. It's going to be all about Jimmer Fredette as always, but San Diego State will come ready to play and the Aztec fans will be rabid. This game will be nationally televised on CBS and will be a great opportunity for the nation to get acquainted with two of the best teams they haven't seen. This one shouldn't be missed.

St. John's at Villanova (2pm et): The Red Storm victory tour will look to continue in Philly, and with the way 'Nova has been playing lately, they just might let St. John's keep rolling. Dwight Hardy has really become a star over the past couple of months for the Red Storm, and this veteran team has absolutely hit its stride with 5 straight victories including 4 over likely tournament teams. Steve Lavin is working magic with this team, and they seem to be catching Villanova at the right time. The Wildcats are 2-3 over their past 5 games with narrow wins over Seton Hall and DePaul as the only victories. The Wildcats scuffled heading into the tourney a year ago and they ended up losing in the second round to St. Mary's as a 2-seed. A win over St. John's could really reverse the positive momentum.

Memphis at UTEP (3pm et): Conference USA is a mess, with 6 teams within a game of first place in the conference standings. Memphis is one of the 3 tied at the top while UTEP is one of the 3 tied a game back. Memphis is looking to find a little bit of consistency and get a stronger foothold in the at-large tourney field, but that could be tough against a strong Miners team. Guard Randy Culpepper is really becoming a good player and a good leader for UTEP.

Arizona at UCLA (4pm et): The Bruins have really put together a nice season after some struggles early on. Ben Howland seems to have this team headed back to the tournament after last year's absence. Beating Arizona could make the year even better as it would put the Bruins even with the Wildcats atop the Pac-10 standings. Arizona has been fantastic all year, and Derrick Williams is an absolute star, but Reeves Nelson, Tyler Honeycutt and the rest of the UCLA squad is itching to show they can beat a team like Arizona.

Florida at Kentucky (4pm et): The Gators have won 6 straight games, and Kentucky has been struggling, but this game is at Rupp Arena. UK hasn't lost at Rupp this season despite all of their road woes, and this game features the two most athletic starting fives in the SEC in what should be a great showdown. Kentucky probably needs this game a little more than Florida, as their recent struggles have their likely tournament seed in the 5-7 range, while it seems unlikely the Gators will fall below a 3.

Texas at Colorado (4pm et): This should be the last opportunity the Buffs and Alec Burks have to keep their at-large hopes afloat. The Longhorns aren't likely to put up another poor performance after losing to Nebraska last weekend, so the Buffaloes will have to play as well as they are capable to pull of the stunner over Texas, even at home in Boulder.

Michigan at Minnesota (4:30pm et): This game would be much more important if the Wolverines hadn't allowed the banked in 3 by Josh Gasser on Wednesday, but that's the way things happened. As it stands, U of M is certainly a longshot for an at-large bid in the big dance, but Minnesota isn't exactly in great shape themselves. The Golden Gophers haven't been winning much since point guard Al Nolen went down, and they really have to defend their homecourt and beat Michigan in this one to keep hope alive. This should be two very desperate teams squaring off in Minneapolis on Saturday, but I think the Wolverines will find a way to win.

South Carolina at Georgia (7pm et): The Bulldogs simply must win this game to feel like they are still in good shape for an at-large bid. The Gamecocks are a very scrappy team and hard to put away, so UGa better be ready to play a full 40 minutes. I think they will get the job done, but the bounceback win coming off the loss at Florida is a must.

Texas A&M at Baylor (9pm et): Baylor's at-large hopes are hanging on by a thread at this point, especially after getting throttled at Missouri. The last time they were in this kind of trouble, they scored a huge win at Texas A&M to rejuvenate their season. They could use that kind of lift again as the Aggies come to Waco to play them. A&M hasn't lost a whole lot this season, but they don't have a real good big man to match up with Perry Jones inside. Baylor could certainly pull of the upset once again, but it won't be easy and it will be necessary for Baylor to go dancing.

Duke at Virginia Tech (9pm et): The Dukies are back atop the polls for now, but lately everyone at the top of the polls is having a very hard time winning and staying there. This looks very much like a trap game for the Blue Devils because it is a near must-win for the Hokies. Va Tech seems to be on the wrong side of the bubble each and every season, and a win over Duke on Saturday night would very likely change that this year. Duke is definitely the most talented team in this matchup, but crazier things have happened this season.

SUNDAY 2/27

UConn at Cincinnati (12pm et): The Bearcats have likely locked themselves into an at-large bid with recent wins over Louisville and Georgetown, but you can always be in better shape. UConn is coming off a tough loss to Marquette and will be anxious to get back into the win column. It should be a good game, but look for the Huskies to come out ahead as Cincy hasn't shown an ability to consistently beat the top Big East teams, and picking up a third stright win over a top team seems unlikely.

Xavier at Dayton (1pm et): The Musketeers really have just one major hurdle left between themselves and an A-10 regular season title. That hurdle is the Dayton Flyers. Much less daunting games against Charlotte and St. Louis remain after the game in Dayton this weekend, so this is the real challenge for Xavier. Tu Holloway has been great so far this year, and I expect him to lead the way to victory against a Dayton team that is always tough to beat in their gym.

Purdue at Michigan State (1pm et): The Spartans have begun to get some separation from Minnesota and Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten bubble crowd, but they could still use another big conference win to help them rest easy come Selection Sunday. A win over the Boilermakers would certainly qualify. This game is at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, and the crowd there is normally raucous. Purdue is definitely the better of the two teams, but MSU is always dangerous as the calendar hits the end of February and turns over into March. Kalin Lucas is starting to look like his old self again, and that should worry the Boilers.

Pittsburgh at Louisville (2pm et): The Panthers are still hot on the trail of a number one seed for the big dance, and that means continuing to win. Louisville has been great this season with a dearth of star players, but Pitt has been better. They are the most efficient Big East team, and they are as deep and as physically tough as any team in the country. Just watch Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown driving to the rim or Gary McGhee backing down a defender and tell me this team isn't tough. Rick Pitino has done a great coaching job so far this season, but he may have to be better than he's been to coax a win out of his Cardinals against the Panthers.

Maryland at North Carolina (7:45pm et): This may be the last big opportunity for the Maryland Terrapins to play their way into the tournament. A road win at the "Dean Dome" would be huge for the Terps. The matchup isn't favorable as Maryland's best player Jordan Williams will be up against the strength of the Tar Heels, frountcourt studs Tyler Zeller and John Henson. Maryland likely needs to get this win, but that seems much better in theory than in practice. UNC would have to have a pretty poor game to lose at home to this Maryland squad.

Washington State at Washington (10pm et): The WSU Cougars are the 4th best team in the Pac-10, which for now looks like a 3-bid league. That doesn't put the Cougars in good position right now. This rivalry game with the Huskies could be the best chance Wazzu has to bolster its resume before the Pac-10 tourney. Washington is loaded with talent in Isaiah Thomas, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Abdul Gaddy, but Klay Thompson is no slouch on the other side. This could be a good chance to get a look at a Washington team that hasn't been on TV that much this season, with this game being nationally televised on Fox Sports Net Sunday night.

Those are the games to watch over the next couple of days, and it should be a great weekend of hoops. Hard to know if any of the games will live up to the slugfest between Gonzaga and St. Mary's from Thursday night, but if they come close it will be pretty entertaining television. Enjoy the games and start getting excited for March Madness.

Nuggets lose a game of Chicken with their franchise player

After hearing for the last couple of months all of the speculation swirling around now former Denver Nugget Carmelo Anthony, it's hard not to feel like the Nuggets and 'Melo were engaged in a high-stakes game of chicken and the Nuggets simply swerved first. Both sides really were backed into a corner at the same time, but only Carmelo seemed to realize it. It seems to be widely accepted that the NBA is rapidly headed to a lockout in the upcoming offseason. NBA owners have said they want to lower salaries across the league by a whopping 33%. It seems as if the owners have finally noticed that it is ridiculous to pay the mid-level guys the audacious salaries they are currently making. Here are just a few of the more ludicrous:

Charlie Villanueva, Detroit - $7 million
Andray Blatche, Washington - almost $6 million
Michael Redd, Milwaukee - $18 million (for a guy who is NEVER healthy)
Corey Maggette, Milwaukee - $9.6 million
Samuel Dalembert, Sacremento - $13.4 million (WOW!)

I think you get the idea. That's just from looking at a few teams' payrolls. With that in mind, this lockout is going to end with lower player salaries across the board. There is just about no way around it. If Carmelo were to have stuck it out in Denver and tested free agency, he wound not have gotten anything near the current 3 year/$65 million contract extension he just agreed to with the Knicks. 'Melo knew this. The Nuggets really had Carmelo over a barrell if he didn't want to be a Nugget for the next 3 years. They just didn't seem to know it. They constantly treated the situation as 'We have to trade Carmelo and get something in return rather than let him walk in free agency and get nothing.' Carmelo was unlikely to walk away from this much money. It would have taken a strong desire to get out of Denver to get him to leave the money from that extension on the table and take his chances against the lockout, at least if the Nuggets refused to trade him.

Over the past two weeks it became abundantly clear that the Nuggets were willing to give Anthony what he wanted and trade him out of Denver. Several teams were rumored to be interested including Dallas, Houston, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nets, and the Knicks. Early season reports included the Bulls on that list as well. The only serious options for the deal were New York and New Jersey. Denver talked to both and had offers from both that they could deal with if accepted, but they made it clear they preferred the offer from the Nets, while 'Melo clearly preferred the Knicks. The way Denver gave in and dealt Carmelo to his preferred destination is appalling. The Nuggets had all the leverage in the situation, all of the clout. So why did Carmelo get what he wanted while the Nuggets took the second best offer? The Nuggets got scared first.

The recent events don't really leave another option or reason. The Nuggets still had 3 days left to pull the trigger on the deal when they sent Carmelo to the Knicks. They really should have tested Anthony's resolve a little more. Sure Denver decided a deal had to get done, but that's no reason for the Nuggets to allow Carmelo dictate where he was dealt to. Denver should have put an ultimatum on the star small forward to either sign the extension with the Nets and accept the trade there, or stay a Nugget and take a pay cut at season's end. Even if Carmelo held out, you could still make the Knicks trade at the last minute and get something in return for him. The Nuggets really needed to do more to force their small forward's hand into signing with New Jersey. The Nets deal would have not only improved the starting 5 more than the Knicks deal (or should I say not hurt it as much), but it would have given Denver FOUR 1st round picks. That's a lot. Instead, the Nuggets got too worried too soon and frantically made a deal that they had 3 more days to wait before they had to make it, and as a result, Carmelo is where he wants to be and the Nuggets got a 2nd rate payment for him.

If this were actually a game of chicken, the Denver Nuggets swerved off the road a good 200 yards away from Carmelo, and they certainly end up with the short end of the stick thanks to their lack of intestinal fortitude. Well done guys.

Who wants to be number 1?

After watching one top 10 college hoops team after another get toppled by a lesser foe, you have to step back and say to yourself, "Who wants to be number 1?" Very few teams seem to want to have that target on their back. Only Duke and the Mountain West duo of San Diego State and BYU stayed unbeaten for the week from the top 10 in the AP poll. Everyone else came up with a loss. Duke seems primed to take over the number one spot in the new polls, but the turmoil seems to reinforce the idea that there are no great teams this season, only good ones. The tournament could be as unpredictable as ever, with more than a handful of teams believing they can catch lightning in a bottle and cut down the nets at season's end. Here's a look at some of the teams that should believe and why, as well as the best gameplan to take them down.



1. DUKE

Why they should believe: This is pretty simple, Singler and Smith. Very few teams have a pair of players who can do the things that Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are capable of. Singler is a fantastic shooter who can rebound and defend as well, and is pretty tough to stop off the dribble too. Smith has filled a huge void with superstar freshman point guard Kyrie Irving hurt, as he has slid over to the point guard spot seamlessly and helped lead Duke to a ridiculous 25-2 record so far. Smith was always a great athlete and very effective scorer, but he has really stepped up as a facilitator as well. Those two players along with Coach K's leadership on the bench can take the Dukies a long way, possibly to repeating as champs.

How they can be beaten: This is simple to gameplan, but far tougher to execute. Duke spaces the floor extremely well on offense to create driving lanes for their two stars, so you have to keep them in front of you. Don't allow the dribble-drive. On offense, you have to go inside and attack the Plumlees. They lack the veteran experience in the post that Brian Zoubek provided and can really be hurt inside by solid post players. Having a star in the paint like Jared Sullinger or Rick Jackson can go a long way toward toppling the Dukies. If you can contain Singler and Smith on the offensive end, and control the paint, Duke can definitely be beaten.



OHIO STATE

Why they should believe: It's more than just Jared Sullinger. Sully is just the start of what the Buckeyes try to do on offense. He is a very capable scorer in the post, but he is just as adept at kicking the ball back to the perimeter to open teammates when the double team comes to him. Jon Diebler and William Buford are capable of exploding for big games if they get open looks thanks to the attention paid to Sullinger. Throw in that they can all defend and are very active on that end, especially freshman Aaron Craft, and Ohio State makes for a very difficult matchup for anyone.

How they can be beaten: Beating the Buckeyes starts on the defensive end. I don't know that you can slow them down with a zone defense. This is not a team that constantly looks to drive the basketball. They will happily shoot over a zone defense. You have to play man-to-man, and you have to stay on the shooters on the perimeter. While double-teaming Sullinger is a must when he has the ball on the block, you have to wait til he is attempting to shoot to collapse the second defender to him. If you double him too soon, he will find an open teammate. Sure Sullinger is likely to drop at least 20 points on you if you bring a late double team, but thats better than holding him to under 10 while the other guys light you up from 3. On offense, you simply have to be efficient. Playing uptempo is a tempting idea against a team that only plays 7 guys regularly, in an effort to wear them out. That would be a mistake. The Buckeyes capitalize on overly agressive offenses, forcing turnovers and scoring transition buckets off of them. OSU is a great transition team, and it's harder to stay on the perimeter shooters defending the fastbreak. Slow things down and execute. It's the best chance you'll get.



TEXAS

Why they should believe: Until the recent road slip up against Nebraska, it was hard to find a reason not to believe. The Longhorns are the best defensive team in the country, and have been getting better as the year has gone on. It may be a young team, but they haven't seemed like it as they won their first 11 conference games all by at least 9 points, and most by much more than that. They have an instant offense machine in Jordan Hamilton, a sweet shooter in Cory Joseph, and two solid post players in Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson. Throw in explosive 6th man J'Covan Brown and there is a lot to be excited about. This team is as talented as any in the country. Plenty of reason for optimism in Austin, even with the loss to the Huskers.

How they can be beaten: Texas is young and athletic, but it's hard to tell if they have any toughness, especially down low. Defensively, pack the paint with bodies and make them shoot from the perimeter all day. Don't allow Thompson and Johnson to roll up decent point totals, and make the outside shooters hit shots. On offense, pretty much the same thing. Go inside on them. Point guard Dogus Balbay and the other guards are great perimeter defenders, but they have little depth inside beyond Thompson and Johnson. Go into the paint to score your points, and if you're lucky, get those two bigs in foul trouble. The Huskers found this formula and beat up Texas inside, outscoring them 38-14 in the paint in their upset win. It also helps to not let the Longhorns going in transition.



PITTSBURGH

Why they should believe: Pitt is the best team in the best conference in all of college basketball. They have a lot of veteran leadership and a lot of depth to go along with great toughness and the most rebounds a game in the country. They have talent inside with Gary McGhee, Nasir Robinson and Dante Taylor as well as outside with Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown and Travon Woodall. There are very few parts of the game that this team struggles at, and if Dwight Hardy of St. John's hadn't made a miraculous tiptoe play down the baseline (he definitely stepped out of bounds), Pitt would be taking the number one ranking this week.

How they can be beaten: There aren't a lot of weaknesses to exploit for Pittsburgh. St. John's beat them with athleticism, Notre Dame beat them with brains, but more than anything, to beat Pitt takes great effort at both ends and precise execution. Pitt is an efficient team, and to beat them you have to be more efficient. Make the Panthers go inside with the ball by staying tight on the guards, and don't be afraid to foul the big guys rather than give them inside buckets. McGhee, Taylor, Robinson and power forward Talib Zanna combine to shoot 50.8% from the charity stripe. If you keep the ball in those guys' hands and out of the playmaking hands of Gibbs, Wanamaker and Brown, and you give yourself a great chance to win. Just slow down on offense, execute your plays, and hit shots. Simple, right?



KANSAS

Why they should believe: The Jayhawks have as dominant an inside tandem as you will find in college hoops in twin brothers Marcus and Markieff Morris. The team is loaded with veteran leadership as the Morrises are juniors as is guard Tyshawn Taylor, and Tyrel Reed and 6th man Brady Morningstar are seniors. Sophomore Thomas Robinson has provided a nice spark off the bench (although he is hurt now), as well as giving the team motivation after suffering two deaths in his family in just a couple of weeks. Pretty inspiring to see a guy who has gone through such an ordeal back on the court so quickly. Throw in inconsistent but extremely gifted freshman Josh Selby, and this team has the makings of one that can make a deep run in the dance. They've only lost twice so far, and one was to fellow powerhouse Texas.

How they can be beaten: With the Jayhawks, it's even tougher to pick out weaknesses than it is with Pittsburgh. Their only two losses all season came in a game in which Jacob Pullen put on one of the best performances we've seen all year, and a game in which Kansas had their worst single-game field goal percentage in the last 15 years against Texas. It's tough to beat the Morrises inside, but you kind of have to try. If you can get those two in foul trouble, the Jayhawks are in trouble. It helps if your guards are shooting well from the outside, but if Marcus and Markeiff are out there, it's tough to slow down KU. The other weak link in the Jayhawks armor might just be Josh Selby. Selby is very talented, but he really lacks consistency, and if you can get in his head early, it can really throw off Kansas's offensive rhythm. Taylor is a solid defender, but he does not have the offensive game Selby does. Kansas has had issues losing early in the tournament as a high seed in the past (see last season vs. Northern Iowa), and a lack of focus could be their undoing just as easily as a tough opponent.



GEORGETOWN

Why they should believe: The DC 3 of Jason Clark, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright are a devastating backcourt trio that can make life hell on the opposition. They've ridden those 3 guys to big wins all season long including a recent 8-game winning streak in the rough-and-tumble Big East that featured wins over St John's, Louisville, Villanova and Syracuse. If you can beat those kind of teams consistently, you can hang with anyone. The guards all have a lot of experience, and have a sour taste in their mouths after losing to Ohio in the first round last season. Look for an angry Hoyas squad that could do serious damage in the tournament.

How they can be beaten: Don't let those three guys beat you. Georgetown really lacks much of a low post game. Julian Vaughn is decent, but it takes more than one guy to be strong inside. Keep Freeman and Wright from driving to the hoop effectively, and don't give any of the 3 open outside looks, and go into the paint on offense. Make guys like Julian Vaughn, Hollis Thompson and Nate Lubick play very well to beat you. This is easier said than done since you would assume that every team they play would try to do this, yet the Hoyas keep winning.



PURDUE

Why they should believe: This team has the best inside-outside duo in the nation in E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson. Leuer and Taylor at Wisconsin may disagree with that, but they would be wrong. Moore was absolutely exceptional in a strong victory over Ohio State just days after taking down Wisconsin at home. Johnson has been viewed as a contender for national player of the year for most of the season, and nothing has changed since. This team wasn't expected to do great things after Robbie Hummel went down for the season in October, but Johnson and Moore have refused to believe they can't be a great team. The rest of the team has really done a nice job of being role players and doing the things that need to be done to win games. Lewis Jackson has stepped up at point guard, Ryne Smith has given them another outside shooter with Moore, and Kelsey Barlow, D.J. Byrd and Terone Johnson have also helped out playing good hustle basketball and playing solid defense.

How they can be beaten: The key on offense against Purdue, just like against most of the top teams, is to be efficient. Purdue plays a very intense style on defense. They keep tight pressure on the ballhandler, and you can't afford to turn the ball over a lot and let E'Twaun Moore and Lewis Jackson get running in transition. On defense, you have to take away E'Twaun Moore. JaJuan Johnson is probably the toughest big man to defend in the country not named Jared Sullinger, but he can get his points and the team still lose. In fact, in each of the last 4 Purdue losses, Johnson has scored more than his season average for points. You can't let both guys play well, and quite simply, Moore is the better choice to stop because he can score 3 points at a time instead of 2. While Johnson is a matchup nightmare, Moore is no slouch either. He can get to the basket or create his own shot off the dribble, he can post up smaller guards that try to defend him, and he is good at finding teammates if they are left open. To slow him down, you have to put your best perimeter defender on him like glue. It's also important to take advantage of forced passes by the Boilers, because a lot of the offense has to run through Moore and Johnson and they have a tendency to make ill-advised passes to get it to them. If you can do those things on defense and be efficient on offense, and Purdue can certainly be taken down.



WISCONSIN

Why they should believe: This team is exacly what I've been saying teams need to be to top the favorites - efficient. They don't take many bad shots, they don't turn the ball over (7.84 per game, more than one and a half fewer than any other D-1 team) and they can hit free throws better than anyone else (82.5% more than 2% better than any other D-1 team). Those numbers are pretty astounding. Throw in that they are a strong team at the defensive end, and they all hustle and it's clear to see there is a lot to like in Madison. Jon Leuer is a phenomenal talent both in the post and shooting from distance, and anyone who watched the Ohio State game at the Kohl Center knows what Jordan Taylor is capable of. Throw in the sharpshooting of Keaton Nankivil and Josh Gasser, and the great bench play of Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans and this is a dangerous tournament team.

How they can be beaten: For starters, you have to play a full 40 minutes against this team. They will not quit playing and you can't either. Secondly, you need to find a way to get your offense scoring. In several games this season, the Badgers have suffered through a stretch in which they struggle to score points. In the games they've lost, those stretches have come in the last few minutes. Notre Dame held them scoreless for the final 4 minutes of their early season meeting. Michigan State shut the Badgers out for the final 2 and a half minutes of regulation before winning in overtime. Ohio State held them to 4 points over a six and a half minute stretch early in the second half while running their lead to 15 points before collapsing. When the Badgers struggle, you have to take advantage and pile up a lead. If you let Wisconsin get ahead late, their free throw shooting will likely do you in, so you have to keep the game tight, or stay ahead. Don't allow Wisconsin to get good inside looks. Make them hit outside shots to beat you, which is unfortunately something they can do. If you can take advantage of their offensive lulls, and keep your own intensity level up for 40 minutes, the slow pace Wisconsin plays will keep you in the game. You just have to get in front and hold off the run at the end for the Badgers.



Other teams capable of making a deep run: Notre Dame (smart, efficient team), St. John's (rapidly improving), Villanova (if they can get their heads on straight), BYU (Jimmer is a force), San Diego State (they just keep winning), Florida (slowly finding consistency), UConn (Kemba can take a game over), North Carolina (they have a ton of talent despite record), Missouri (always a tough matchup), and George Mason (more on this in a second).



WHO'S HAVING A GOOD WEEK:



Purdue: The Boilermakers started the week by topping Wisconsin at home in West Lafayette on Tuesday and followed that up by doing the same to conference leader Ohio State on Sunday. The Buckeyes had a 3-game stranglehold lead on the Big Ten before their loss to Wisconsin and now the cushion is down to just one game over the Boilermakers and the head-to-head advantage they had is now gone. E'Twaun Moore put in a career high 38 points in the win over the Buckeyes and this team is brimming with confidence and peaking at the right time.



George Mason: The Patriots have been on quite a tear of late. They have won 13 consecutive games including 11 by at least 14 points. This is more about their past 2-3 weeks than just this week. They throttled other Colonial heavyweights Hofstra and Old Dominion the first week of February, and then won at VCU by 20 earlier this week and won their Bracketbuster game over Northern Iowa to all but cement an at-large berth in this year's tournament. Mason plays great defense, they rebound well, and while their offense can get stagnant at times, they shoot the 3 very well and have been remarkably consistent. This is the type of play that can make the Patriots a cinderella in the big tournament once again.



Norris Cole, Cleveland State: This young man has had an absolutely ridiculous 9 days. On Saturday the 12th, Cole went out against Youngstown State and put up the most impressive statline I've seen all year with 41 points, 20 rebounds (YES 20, and did I mention he's a 6'2" point guard?), 9 assists and 3 steals. Four days later, he went out and scored what must have seemed like a miniscule 16 points to go along with 10 assists and 6 boards in a win over Wright State. In case he wasn't playing well enough, Cole went out in his Bracketbuster game on Sunday against Old Dominion and scored 35 points including 8 three pointers and dished out 5 assists in a loss where the rest of his team totaled just 28 points. This kid has been playing out of his mind, and he's the kind of player that can will his team to first round upset if the Vikings find a way into the tournament. Speaking of Norris Cole. . . . . .



Flat Tops: The old school hair style made famous by rap artists like Vanilla Ice and Kid of Kid'N'Play as well as NBA players like J.R. Reid is making a comeback. Norris Cole isn't the only one sporting the look, as Wisconsin bench contributor Ryan Evans and Tennessee star Scotty Hopson are also assisting in bringing it back. It's been fun to see and hopefully these kids continue to represent the hairdo well with strong play on the court.



WHO'S NOT HAVING A GOOD WEEK:



Kansas: Despite the easy win over Colorado on Saturday, Kansas had a very tough week by getting crushed by their in-state rival Kansas State Wildcats just hours after being named the number one team in the country. Add in that key reserve Thomas Robinson is out for a few weeks with injury, and things get worse. It's hardly backbreaking for a Kansas team that will likely be at worst a 2 seed in the tournament even if they drop a couple more games, but it's certainly not their best week of the year.



St. Mary's: The Gaels really had a terrible week if they want to be breathing easy on selection Sunday in a few weeks. Losing to Utah State in the Bracketbusters' marquee game is understandable. Utah State is a tough matchup for anyone, especially if you haven't seen them before. Stew Morrill's clubs always win 20+. That loss by itself isn't season crushing. When you couple it with the inexplicable loss to San Diego earlier in the week and it really could cause Gael fans to be hitting the panic button. St. Mary's does have a huge win over St. John's early in the year that gives their resume a big lift, but winning the WCC regular season title might be a must for an at-large berth now, and that likely means beating Gonzaga on Thursday night.



Virginia Tech: Boy, you wouldn't have expected to find the Hokies here headed into the weekend. Seth Greenberg's team rolled Georgia Tech a week ago, scoring over 100 points in the process, then completed a season sweep of Maryland on Tuesday, inching VT toward the right side of the bubble. On Saturday, however, they were defeated by lowly Virginia. For the second time. The Cavaliers need to finish strong to make the NIT and have only 4 ACC wins all season, and that's counting the two over Va. Tech. Thanks to that loss, the Hokies may have to win out to feel good about an at-large berth, and that means beating Duke at home next Saturday. That's never a comfortable feeling.



Bruce Pearl: The Tennessee Volunteers weren't exactly coasting through the conference schedule during Pearl's eight game suspension, but things may have actually gotten worse since his return. The team went 5-3 without Pearl, including big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, but also bad losses to Alabama and Arkansas. With Pearl back on the sideline, the Vols are 1-3. They have lost to Georgia, Florida and Kentucky, none of which are bad teams, but Tennessee may now need to win 3 of their final 4 games to feel good about their standing, and that would require a win at home over Kentuucky or a win at Vanderbilt. I wouldn't feel too hopeful about either of those games the way Tennessee is playing of late.



GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK:



Monday 2/21:

Syracuse at Villanova (7pm et) - 'Cuse has revenge on their minds this week as Villanova took them down at the Carrier Dome last month. The Wildcats have been really scuffling lately with a bad loss against Rutgers a couple weeks ago on a 4-point play at the end of the game, a loss to Pitt to follow that up, and two road escapes over Seton Hall and DePaul last week, one in overtime. Syracuse has gotten back on track after a rough patch earlier this season, and if the Wildcats continue to struggle Syracuse could certainly take care of business on the road.



Oklahoma State at Kansas (9pm et) - The Jayhawks bounced back from the K-State loss well, and OSU is unlikely to win at the Phog. The Cowboys may need a win here to really plant themselves firmly on the bubble after missing out on an upset against Texas last week.



Tuesday 2/22:

Illinois at Ohio State (7pm et) - The Fighting Illini are quickly sliding down the at-large pecking order with each passing week. They fell against the Spartans on Saturday after barely surviving Michigan a couple days earlier. A win over the suddenly beatable Buckeyes would certainly stop the nosedive and stabilize the Iliini's tournament position. They had OSU on the ropes in Champagne last month, but they will have to finish the job to gain anything from this game.



Tennessee at Vanderbilt (9pm et) - Bruce Pearl and the Vols could really use a win in this one. They are sinking fast after being ranked in the top 10 early in the season. A win by Vanderbilt would seal them as a lock for the tournament. If there was any doubt if the Commodores belong in, a win here would erase it. Expect a desperate Tennessee team that plays its best with its back against the wall.



Michigan State at Minnesota (9pm et) - The Spartans came out of their free fall with a sound victory over Penn State, a respectable showing in a loss at Ohio State, and a nice win over fellow bubble team Illinois over the weekend. Here they get the other Big Ten bubble team struggling worse than them. The Gophers have failed to find any offensive rhythm since losing Al Nolen to injury, and I don't expect them to find it against MSU. The Spartans' role players have really stepped up to help Draymond Green and Kalin Lucas of late, and they seem to be headed back to the tournament.



Wednesday 2/23:

Temple at Duke (7pm et) - This game is more for the fun of watching a big nonconference game this late in the season as both of these teams are likely in the tournament as of now. Temple isn't going to be expected to go to Cameron Indoor Arena and beat Duke, but a win would definitely sew up an at-large berth.



Colorado State at BYU (8pm et) - The Rams let an opportunity to bolster their resume slip away against UNLV over the weekend, and now they really need to pull of an upset over the Cougars or San Diego State to feel good about their chances to go dancing. BYU is never easy to beat with Jimmer Fredette in control of their team, but Colorado State will definitely come in ready to play.



Baylor at Missouri (9pm et) - The Bears could really use a couple more big wins to feel like they have a good chance at the tournament, and a win at Missouri would be huge. The Tigers haven't lost at home all year, and they play a very tough style to play against. Perry Jones III will have his hands full with Ratliffe and Safford inside, but this is a win Baylor could really use right now.



Florida State at Maryland (9pm et) - This is a game the selection committee will be watching closely. So far this season, FSU has played like a tournament team. Their resume should put them squarely in the field of 68. Much of that resume was built with the help of star player Chris Singleton, who may be done for the season with injury. If Florida State can't prove that they are still a capable tournament team without Singleton in the lineup, the committee may decide that this isn't the team that built that resume. Maryland won't make things easy, as Jordan Williams is a load inside and the Terps are fighting for their tournament lives at this point.



Kansas State at Nebraska (9pm et) - After the huge upsets these two teams put up last week, their tournament outlooks are much different now. Kansas State went from the outside of the bubble to the inside, and Nebraska went from way off the bubble to squarely on it. The Huskers have no big wins in the nonconference, but with the win over Texas and home games left with K-State and Missouri, they can still change things. Nebraska has only lost in Lincoln once all year, to Kansas. If they pull off this win over the Wildcats, it would put them one more upset away from really being in the tourney discussion. Kansas State meanwhile, could certainly use this win to keep their momentum going and give them a little more margin for error the rest of the way.



Thursday 2/24

Marquette at Connecticut (7pm et) - Marquette is running out of chances to add a few big wins to the resume. This one is bordering on a must-win game for the Golden Eagles. The Big East affiliation will only go so far with the selection committe if they have to overlook 12 or 13 losses overall to put you in. UConn could use the win to help their seeding and bounce back from their loss to Louisville.



Georgia at Florida (7pm et) - The Bulldogs could certainly use another quality victory to solidify the tournament status. Chandler Parson's is banged up for the Gators who have 5 straight wins going into this game, and Georgia had Florida on the ropes in Athens before Erving Walker hit a long heave to tie the game at the end of overtime and force double-OT. The Gators don't need any help as far as getting into the tournament, but you never want to lose a home game to a big rival. If this is anywhere near as good as the first meeting, you won't want to miss this game.



Pittsburgh at West Virginia (9pm et) - The Mountaineers are coming off one of their biggest wins of the year over number 7 Notre Dame, and they should be feeling pretty good about where they stand with the selection committee. Pittsburgh is not happy about the way their last game ended against St. John's, and WVU is not happy about the outcome of the first meeting against Pitt this year. That makes for a very fun atmosphere for a rivalry game. The Panthers will certainly be favored, as St. John's was the first team to beat them on the road all year, and it was only by one point. This game is always exciting and always close, and this should be no exception.



Morehead State at Murray State (9pm et) - This game doesn't jump off the schedule at you, but this is a huge rivalry in the Ohio Valley conference. Morehead State went to the tournament two years ago, and then was the only OVC team to beat Murray State last year as the Racers went to the dance and upset Vanderbilt in the first round. The Racers have most of that team back this year, and this game is likely going to decide the OVC regular season title. If Murray State makes the dance, they will be tough again, and if it's Morehead State, thier opponent will have to deal with the nation's top rebounder Kenneth Faried. Either way, this game should be a good one to watch for a first round upset sleeper.



Gonzaga at St. Mary's (11pm et) - This game is likely to determine the West Coast Conference regular season title, and after their recent slide, it's a critical one for the Gaels. Gonzaga is always a difficult opponent late in the season, and for once it seems unlikely that Gonzaga will be in as an at-large team, so this game is also critical for the 'Zags. St. Mary's got over a huge psychological hurdle earlier this season, beating Gonzaga in Spokane, but they may need to beat them again in this one.


That's what to watch this week. I'll be back to take a look at the weekend slate of games later this week.