So I recently watched a Jason Statham film called "Chaos," and it got me thinking about college football. I know it sounds weird but hear me out. In the movie, the Chaos Theory is explained by saying that even when a group of set variables seem to create results that are completely random, unexplainable and "chaotic," eventually a pattern emerges that makes sense. While the movie gives a very crude description of a very complex theory, that description seems to tie into this college football season a great deal. Who would have expected Texas to get blown out by UCLA, take down a powerhouse Nebraska team in Lincoln two weeks later, then lose to Iowa State the following week? Probably no one. Or how about Kansas losing to a mediocre FCS team by a 6-3 score and then toppling a ranked Georgia Tech team the following week? Totally random. Or better yet, how are Michigan State and Missouri still unbeaten at this stage of the season? Totally unexpected. According to the theory, the season will solve its own mystery. Things will sort themselves out and the pattern will become clear. Until then I guess we just revel in the chaos. So now let's take a look around the country and see what patterns are emerging.
ACC -
Now that conference play has gotten going, the traditional ACC powers are rising back to the top. Virginia Tech opened the season with tough back-to-back losses to Boise Sate and James Madison, but have since rebounded to win 6 straight, including 4 in the ACC. They've taken control of the coastal division to date, and most of the others aren't exactly nipping at their heels. Geogia Tech's loss to Clemson is a huge blow that drops them to two games back of the Hokies. Miami is the only team within striking distance after dealing a big loss to North Carolina on Saturday. It was Jacory Harris's best game of the year, and it leaves the Hurricanes just a game behind VT. If they can avoid a big upset and take care of Georgia Tech, the 'Canes will get Va Tech at home with the division on the line. The loss for North Carolina was a huge setback for a team that was gaining steam, as they are now two games back along with GT. Meanwhile, in the atlantic, Florida State struggled out of the gate with a blowout loss to Oklahoma in the non-conference, but they responded by starting league play 4-0. Any doubts about if the 'Noles were for real were answered when they blew out Miami. As for their competition, Clemson's losses to Miami and North Carolina from the coastal division has them fighting an uphill battle two games back. Maryland is just a game back after padding the non-conference with cupcakes and and having very backloaded league schedule, but losses to NC State, Florida State and Miami should expose the Terps as the season wears on. The only team with a real shot to unseat the 'Noles is NC State. The Wolfpack have only fallen to Va Tech in conference, and draw FSU at home this Thursday. Both teams have had a week and a half to get ready for this game, and Russell Wilson and the Pack are likely still steaming after a poor performance in a close loss to East Carolina. They will get a big time opponent to take those frustrations out on this week in a game with big division title implications.
ACC week 9 picks - NC State over Florida State, Clemson over Boston College, Miami over Virginia, Maryland over Wake Forest, Navy over Duke, North Carolina over William & Mary
Week 9 outlook - Duke hardly needs a reason to lose these days, and Navy is absolutely rolling after dismantling the Fighting Irish. They should continue to roll over the Dukies' light resistance. Miami should manhandle Virginia. Maryland will eventually start losing, but not before they get bowl eligible against Wake Forest and that putrid defense. Even the Dukies dropped 48 on the Deacs this year. Boston College continues to struggle to find an offensive identity as the defense keeps them in game after game. Mark Herzlich has been great, and this team has nearly broken through into the conferene win column each of the last two weeks against Florida State and Maryland. Unfortunately, they won't break through this week against Clemson. The Tigers are getting it together and even good defenses have a hard time slowing down Andre Ellington. North Carolina draws a 6-1 FCS school this weekend in William & Mary, but don't be fooled by the record. They have played mostly colse games and their one loss was to UMass. Expect UNC to roll. I actually like NC State to pull the upset against the 'Noles this Thursday. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is ailing with a bruised triceps in his throwing shoulder, a ruptured bursa sac in his elbow, and a bad contusion on his leg. He says he's fine, but anyone who watched him against BC can tell you it bothered him. He turned the ball over four times in that contest. He can't afford those mistakes against a team that can move the ball coming off those turnovers. The Wolfpack has had an electric passing game for much of the season led by Russell Wilson. He has struggled in the teams two losses, but he hasn't played consecutive bad games all year. FSU must attempt to fluster Wilson with the blitz, and Wilson needs to do a better job using his legs to beat it and bring it down and run. He is far too athletic to be putting up less than 30 yards rushing per game. If Christian Ponder is even slightly off his game due to injuries, and NC State is ready for the blitz and handles it well, I really expect the Pack to come out on top.
Big East -
If there is any single conference that best demonstrates chaos at work in college football so far, it's the Big Least. Every time you think you have a bead on which direction a team is headed, they either surprise you with a big, unexpected win, or they completely lay an egg. The Syracuse Orange turned around after getting pasted by Pitt two weeks ago to take down the only ranked team in the league, the West Virginia Moutaineers. The win sent shockwaves through the league, and the Orange pulled within two wins of bowl eligibility just one week after I badly bashed them in this blog. That's the repayment I get. Syracuse doesn't do anything spectacular, and they don't boast a ton of talent, but they execute well on both sides of the ball, they dont turn the ball over, and they limit the opponents' big plays on defense. That's a formula for successs at any level. On the flip side of the coin, just when it appeared that all was well in Cincy and that they had recovered from the hangover from coach Brian Kelly's departure, They get thrashed by what had been a very inept South Florida team last Friday. The Bearcat offense seemed to be clicking before this game, but it was the defense that really disappointed. South Florida had only topped 30 points twice all year, once against Stony Brook, and once against Florida Atlantic, so the 38 they dropped on Cincy had to be alarming. It's just another wild, unexpected result in the Big East. There is no Big East result that would be surprising anymore. Last place UConn could take down first place Pittsburgh, and no one would blink. It's just that sort of league this year. Unfortunately, that sort of league has no team in the top 25, but hey, at least they are still guaranteed a BCS bowl berth for the champion. (Ridiculous)
Big East week 9 picks - West Virginia over UConn, Pittsburgh over Louisville, Cincinnati over Syracuse
Week 9 outlook - West Virginia should rebound nicely after their stunning week 8 loss. UConn will focus on stopping Noel Devine, but WVU should find enough points to top a UConn team that couldn't score against Louisville. It appears the Huskies will do the smart thing and go back to original starting quarterback Zach Frazer and not third-stringer Michael Box who struggled mightily against the Cardinals. It likely won't be enough against a strong WVU defense. Louisville is really starting to find it's stride and really could wind up in a decent bowl game this year, but Pittsburgh has been just too good of late to expect the L'ville win. The ground game has been fantastic and I really believe the Panthers have worked out the o-line kinks that plagued them in September. I like Pitt by 10+ points. The two teams in the third matchup were the big surprises of last week. I think Cincy rebounds as they have been better offensively than West Virginia. I expect them to stack the box aginst 'Cuse and really slow down the Orange. As long as they can put up 20 or more points, I like Cincy. If Zach Collaros doesn't play, however, this one could be very interesting.
Big 12 -
Even though the Big 12 is not the jumbled mess that the Big East is at this point, this past weekend was still a lot of fun. Th teams with the four best overall records in the league all faced off head-to-head on Saturday, and the last unbeaten Big 12 team is Missouri. The Tigers gave Oklahoma a very rude welcome into Columbia by taking the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and never looked back. The Sooners constantly beat themselves with turnovers at crucial times in the game. They also didn't do a great job of slowing down the Tigers' offense. In the other big game, Nebraska won a high scoring shootout with Oklahoma State, 51-41. The Pokes stayed in the game for most of the way, but Taylor Martinez's five touchdown passes were just too much. Around the rest of the league, Iowa State stunned a Texas team that expected to win just by showing up, Texas A&M officially annointed Kansas as the new conference punching bag, and Baylor got bowl eligible for the first time in 16 years with a shootout win over Kansas State in which the Bears rolled up almost 700 yards of total offense. The Bears are now in first place in the south at 3-1 in conference play while Oklahoma and OK State are both 2-1. The north still looks like it will come down to this weekend's clash between Nebraska and Missouri, while the south has now opened up a bit.
Big 12 week 9 picks - Oklahoma State over Kansas State, Iowa State over Kansas, Texas A&M over Texas Tech, Texas over Baylor, Oklahoma over Colorado, Nebraska over Missouri
Week 9 outlook - Justin Blackmon likely will not play after a DUI arrest this week, and the Cowboys may struggle to stop Daniel Thomas and K-State's running game, but somehow I still like the Cowboys to win this game. Kendall Hunter went for 200 yards against the blackshirts a week ago, and another big game should be coming this week. Brandon Weeden may struggle just a little to throw without Blackmon out there, but he he will find a way to put up points. This offense is explosive and Baylor showed that this D can be torched a week ago. Iowa State will get within a win of a possible bowl berth by beating Kansas this week unless the Jayhawk team that beat Georgia Tech shows up. Texas A&M has all the pieces for an explosive offense if they can just stop shooting themselves in the foot. I think they do that in a win over the Red Raiders. Texas probably got a huge wake-up call with a home loss to Iowa State this past Saturday, but who knows. They didn't exactly turn around after losing to UCLA. Baylor is a very strong offensive team, but when Texas is focused, they can shut down any offense. I think the Longhorns are focused in this one, and bounce back from a bad loss with a big win. Dan Hawkins will inch closer to the unemployment line by getting throttled by Oklahoma. The Sooners have a sour taste in their mouths after a bad loss to Mizzou in which they just didn't execute. They will clean that taste out with a blowout of the Buffaloes. In the big showdown in Lincoln, I feel another unbeaten is going down. T-Magic got his groove back against OK State, and Missouri has a habit of losing when everything seems to be going great. The Tigers were undefeated in 2007 before losing to Oklahoma in a huge game, and then climbed to number one in the nation before falling again to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship. Now, they finally get over the OU hump, and they run into Nebraska the following week. OU came to them in Columbia. They go into Lincoln and the "Sea of Red" this week, and the 'Huskers wll be ready for them. Nebraska's blackshirts showed some holes last week, but I think they will close them up iin time for this showdown, and Missouri will finally come out on the losing end. I think the Cornhuskers win by at least a touchdown.
Big Ten -
The biggest shake-up in the Big Ten this past week came when Wisconsin held off Iowa for a one point win to take over second place in the league behind Michigan State. The Spartans remained unbeaten after falling behind by 17 against Northwestern early, but playing the same gutsy football they have all year to come back. MSU gets their final big test this weekend against Iowa, and after that should be a big favorite in their remaining games. Iowa still has only one league loss, and can jump back into the discussion with a win over the Spartans, but they do still face Ohio State later this season. The Badgers and Buckeyes are knotted with them at 1 Big Ten loss. The rest of the season should sort this out, but the lack of a round robin schedule could make picking an automatic BCS team dicey if they all have a loss.
Big Ten week 9 picks - Northwestern over Indiana, Illinois over Purdue, Ohio State over Minnesota, Michigan over Penn State, Iowa over Michigan State
Week 9 outlook - The Wildcats are a little disappointed after the tough loss a week ago, but they can't let it affect their play against an Indiana team that can really throw the ball with qb Ben Chappell and wideout Tandon Doss. Indiana struggles to defend the run, and Dan Persa must be willing to run all over these guys to make sure the Wildcats don't let a winnable game get away. Purdue should go down badly again this week. Illinois has been a real surprise in the Big Ten, and they should easily handle the Boilers. Ohio State should win by at least 30 over the Golden Gophers. Michigan versus Penn State will be a very interesting matchup on Saturday. Penn State has had trouble with all kinds of different offenses this season, but the one they've had the most trouble with has been their own. Michigan has to keep Evan Royster bottled up and force Rob Bolden into third and long situations, and then harrass him when they do. This is a real chance for the Michigan defense to play a good game. Denard and the offense will move the ball as always, and they need to cash in on scoring chances as always. But on defense, they have to be a little less agressive and block off the cutback lanes for Evan Royster to run through. If they do that, they will put Bolden in plenty of tough spots, and they'll win this game. Michigan State and Iowa should be an epic game of wills. These teams play smashmouth football at it's finest, and it really will come down to who wants it more. The Spartans have to believe that they can be a national championship team if they want to have the swagger to knock Iowa around. This is a program that is not used to a national spotlight, and if they win this game and a couple other unbeatens fall, they will have that spotlight glaring at them. Iowa will come at MSU with Adam Robinson and a respectable passing attack led by veteran qb Ricky Stanzi and standout receiver Darrell Johnson-Koulianos. The Hawkeyes are coming off a home loss, and they rarely drop two in a row at home. The Spartans have just as good a ground game, but with three backs carrying the load instead of one, they may have fresher legs late in the game. Kirk Cousins has been very efficient thus far as well, and both teams have very solid defenses. This game will come down to the final plays just like it did last year, and I think Iowa barely pulls it out again. It wouldn't shock me if the Spartans win, but it's just tough to pick Iowa to lose in Kinnick Stadium for a second straight week.
Pac-10 -
Thank goodness for the Pac-10, where things are going as expected. No drama or chaos here, just the teams that are supposed to win coming out on top. Oregon stayed out in front by routing UCLA. Stanford didn't win as convincingly as you would expect with WSU in town, but they remain close behind the Ducks. Arizona may have lost Nick Foles for a week, but backup Matt Scott made short work Of U-Dub and kept alive the Huskies streak of alternating wins and losses. In the other Pac-10 matchup, California continued to show how good they can be at home with a 33-point win over Arizona State, but they don't seem to be able to take that magic with them on the road. Lucky for them, they get Oregon to come to Berkley this year.
Pac-10 week 9 picks - Arizona over UCLA, Oregon State over California, Arizona State over Washington State, Stanford over Washington, Oregon over USC
Week 9 outlook - Nick Foles still might not play this week, but if Matt Scott can play the way he did last week, the Bruins should be no trouble. The injury to Kevin Prince seems to have crushed this team. Cal is on the road against a solid Oregon State team, and Cal doesn't win on the road. I like the Beavers by two touchdowns. Washington State seems to get closer and closer to winning a game, but I think Arizona State sends them the other direction this week with a blowout win. Stanford looked sloppy a week ago, and Washington is due for a win thanks to their alternating win streak, but Andrew Luck and the Cardinal will be too much for Jake Locker on Saturday. Locker is banged up right now, and coach Sarkisian's play calling has been more conservative as a result. If he doesn't unleash Locker's running ability and get him out of the pocket more against Stanford, this could be a blowout. In the big one this week, the Oregon Ducks take on the USC Trojans. Matt Barkley is finally fulfilling all the potential he had when he was the number 1 quarterback recruit in the nation a couple years ago, but the number of points he will have to put up to beat the Ducks is dizzying. Oregon averages close to 60 a game, and they've put those numbers up against bad and good defenses alike. Oregon will score a bunch. The key for USC will be to keep pace and not let things get out of hand early. If Barkley limits the turnovers and keeps USC within striking distance, the Trojans may be able to pull off the shocker. I doubt it happens, however. That Oregon offense won't be stopping for directions any time soon.
SEC -
The SEC has a new frontrunner, and it is the Auburn Tigers. Cameron Newton absolutely steamrolled the LSU Tiger defense last Saturday to the tune of 217 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. He has stepped up as a major heisman candidate alongside Kellen Moore and Lamichael James. Auburn is the only unbeaten left in the SEC West, but Alabama will still have a lot of say in who comes out on top. They still take on both LSU and Auburn, not to mention Mississippi State, whose recent win streak has them in the top 25. Auburn could run the table, but big tests still loom with Bama, Georgia, and the SEC title game. The east looks as though it will be decided by the South Carolina-Florida game, but if Georgia beats the Gators in Jacksonville on Saturday, the division is likely South Carolina's for the taking. However, they must avoid losses to Tennessee and Arkansas to make that a reality. Georgia still feels like they have a shot, but with games against Florida and Auburn still left, they will likely need some help to get it done.
SEC week 9 picks - South Carolina over Tennessee, Georgia over Florida, Auburn Over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State over Kentucky
Week 9 outlook - Tennessee seems unlikely to break through for a big SEC win this week despite coach Dooley's riveting D-Day speech from last week's postgame news conference. South Carolina knows how important this game is if they want to stay in control of the SEC East, and they will win. Arkansas should handle Vandy whether Ryan Mallett can play or not. The Commodores have had more fight in them than expected, but the Hogs are just too good. Ole Miss can put up some points, and Auburn has been a little shaky on defense at times, but Cam Newton and the Tiger offense should take charge early and not let up. Mississippi State hopefully has gotten their poor performance out of their heads from the UAB game, because Kentucky is dangerous. Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb have been explosive at times, and the Bulldogs need to shut down that connection to stay ranked. I think the top 25 jitters are done now, and the Bulldogs will settle in nicely and win by a touchdown against the Wildcats. In the "World's Largest Cocktail Party," Georgia and Florida will square off in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs offense has been absolutely steamrolling people now that AJ Green is playing every week. It makes life easier on Washaun Ealey, Aaron Murray, and everyone else on that Bulldoog offense. While Florida likely won't allow another 40-point outburst from Georgia, the Gator offense has sputtered for much of the last month. Even with Chris Rainey back, I think the Bulldogs make it four straight losses for Urban Meyer and his Gators.
Best of the Rest -
All of the undefeated teams around the country falling continue to give Boise and TCU a glimmer of hope in the national title race. Even Utah should have those aspirations at this point in the season. They all keep on winning, but the real question will come if there is one spot for either Boise or TCU at the end of the year. How do you decide between the two? I really have no idea, someone gets slighted either way. The Conference USA divisional races are starting to take shape, as Houston took down SMU last week to take first place for now in the west, and ECU and UCF square off this Saturday for control of the east. While Temple and Northern Illinois have been the most impressive MAC teams thus far, both have some real competition within their divisional races. In the east, Temple is 3-1 with a loss to NIU, but Ohio is sitting at 4-1 and Miami OH is 3-1 with Temple. The Owls do still control their own fate as they close the season with Ohio and Miami back-to-back. Winning those two games will pretty much sew up a spot in the conference title game. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, can take care of the west over the next couple of weeks. They take on a dangerous Western Michigan team this Saturday at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo. The Broncos are just one back in the loss column and have started to play decent football. After that, the Huskies come back home to take on Toledo, who is 4-0 in MAC play like the Huskies. If NIU comes out with those two wins, they are pretty much the west champs this year.
Other week 9 picks - Southern Miss over UAB, Northern Illinois over Western Michigan, Ohio over La.-Lafayette, San Diego St. over Wyoming, Boise St. over La. Tech (already happened), Notre Dame over Tulsa, UTEP over Marshall, Western Kentucky over North Texas, Miami OH over Buffalo, East Carolina over UCF, Central Michigan over Bowling Green, Kent State over Ball State, Troy over UL-Monroe, San Jose St. over New Mexico St., SMU over Tulane, Toledo over Eastern Michigan, FIU over FAU, Colorado State over New Mexico, Houston over Memphis, Utah over Air Force, Nevada over Utah State, TCU over UNLV, Hawaii over Idaho
Week 9 outlook - Most of the big boys should roll. Nevada will win easily, and Boise already did in the WAC. Hawaii also has an easy victory coming. TCU will throttle UNLV, and Notre Dame needs to rebound well against Tulsa. Utah and Air Force should play a fantastic game, but Utah has been blowing most opponents away. The game is in Colorado Springs, and the Facons run a very tough offense to stop, so this one should be closer than most for Utah. I still think the Utes remain unbeaten. In the MAC, NIU draws a Western Michigan team that has started to play pretty well in conference. NIU is focused though, and they are very tough to stop in the ground game. The best way to stop Alex Carder and the Bronco passing game is to keep the ball away from them, which the NIU offense is built to do. In a big C-USA showdown, I like East Carolina to beat a very solid Central Florida team. The Pirates offense is absolutely booming the last few weeks, and I doubt UCF is the defense to slow them down. It should be a fantastic game and it should establish the frontrunner in their division. If ECU wins, they will have a two game edge on the entire division, while a UCF win would set up a big showdown with Southern Miss in a couple weeks.
Conference power rankings -
1. SEC - Auburn jumped to the top of the BCS heap for now, and Bama continues to rebound after their disappointing South Carolina loss. The emergence of Georgia of late gives the east some hope of a respectable season.
2. Big Ten - Michigan State remains unbeaten, and Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin remain ranked behind them. Even Northwestern, Michigan, and Illinois provide strong depth for the league.
3. Big 12 - Texas may be a shell of the team they were supposed to be, but Oklahoma State and Missouri were impressive again this week, even though the Cowboys lost. Baylor, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are also all ranked here.
4. Pac-10 - The Ducks still seem to be on track for the national title game. Stanford hasn't been pretty, but they keep winning behind Oregon, and the rest of the league has been too unpredictable to put the Pac-10 any higher.
5. ACC - The only reason the ACC is lower than the Pac-10 is a lack of a top-ranked team. The best the ACC offers is Florida State at number 16 in the BCS, behind Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. The ACC has more depth with UNC, Va Tech, Miami, NC St., Clemson, and GT, but no ACC team is in the title race.
6. Mountain West - TCU and Utah are still on their collision course, while San Diego State has really stepped up along with Air Force as other competition.
7. WAC - Still mostly Boise, but Hawaii is actually in first here at 4-0 in WAC play. Fresno State is a respectable 3-1, and Nevada is still a top 25 team.
8. C-USA - East Carolina continues to impress in their first year under Ruffin McNeil. UCF has been strong as well, and Houston isn't throwing in the towel without Case Keenum after a big win over SMU.
9. Big East - No one in the top 25 for the first time this year, and for good reason. If Pitt keeps winning, it will be hard to keep them out of that list, though.
10. MAC - Plenty of teams expect to get bowl eligible from the MAC this year, and the division races actually look interesting at this point.
11. Sun Belt - Troy still in control, FIU and Middle Tennessee are the only teams that may challenge them in the worst league in the FBS.
My Top 25:
1. Oregon - 7-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 8-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 7-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 8-0 (5)
5. Alabama - 7-1 (6)
6. Utah - 7-0 (9)
7. Michigan State - 8-0 (10)
8. Wisconsin - 7-1 (14)
9. Ohio State - 7-1 (11)
10. Nebraska - 6-1 (12)
11. Missouri - 7-0 (19)
12. Florida State - 7-1 (15)
13. Stanford - 6-1 (13)
14. LSU - 7-1 (8)
15. Oklahoma - 6-1 (4)
16. Arizona - 6-1 (17)
17. Iowa - 5-2 (7)
18. Arkansas - 5-2 (18)
19. Virginia Tech - 6-2 (22)
20. South Carolina - 5-2 (21)
21. Oklahoma State - 6-1 (16)
22. Miami FL - 5-2 (UNR)
23. Mississippi State - 6-2 (25)
24. Baylor - 6-2 (UNR)
25. East Carolina - 5-2 (UNR)
Dropped from the rankings: West Virginia (20), Texas (23), Kansas State (24)
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Friday, October 22, 2010
What We've Learned About College Football: Week 7
Well, the BCS Rankings have been officially released and the number one team in the nation is: Oklahoma?! OK, who's playing a joke on the rest of the nation here? Granted, Oklahoma is one of the 10 remaining undefeated teams, but they've had more close calls than Les Miles and LSU so far. They struggled to hold off Utah State (2-4) by a touchdown. They only topped Air Force by a field goal, and they beat Cincinnati (3-3) on a muffed punt by just two points. On top of that, they tried to fumble away the Red River game against a Texas, a team that was throttled the week before by UCLA, before being bailed out by yet another muffed punt. Without their 30 point win over Florida State, and if they weren't "Oklahoma," they would barely be in the top 10, let alone #1. Oregon, who has looked like the clear best team in the country came in at number 2, but they were not number 1 on any of the computer rankings. Only LSU and Oklahoma were given the top spot in any of those rankings. Yes, the same LSU who needed 13 Vols on the field for the final play to bail them out of bad clock management, and a fortuitous bounce to convert a fake field goal and beat Florida. Something smells fishy about these rankings, and as usual it's the lack of respect for non-automatic qualifiers Boise State and TCU. They always have an uphill battle once the rankings come out, since their schedules don't get any tougher as the season goes on. It really doesn't help when they start on the outside looking in from the initial BCS rankings. It's not ridiculous to think that a one-loss Alabama or Iowa team could play for the national title over undefeated Boise and TCU. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but only time will tell. As we enter week 8, a few more unbeatens will fall. LSU and Auburn square off as do Missouri and Oklahoma with their unbeaten starts on the line. Michigan State and Oklahoma State take on tough one-loss teams this week as well.
ACC -
It was an interesting week in the ACC as most of the expected winners came out on top, but one major casualty was the NC State Wolfpack. NC State went down at the hands of Ruffin McNeil's East Carolina Pirates who have been playing pretty good football so far. It isn't a conference loss, but if the Wolfpack wants to be a real threat to Florida State in the atlantic division they have to play better than this. North Carolina continues to lock in as they get used to the lineup without many of their big stars. The players that are eligible took down Virginia by 34 points on Saturday. Florida State reverted to earlier season form by struggling mightily to get by a mediocre Boston College team with Christian Ponder turning the ball over 4 times. There will be teams that will beat the Noles if they continue to play sloppy football. The conference has a lot of contenders, and things will continue to get more intense as the schedule starts to eliminate the pretenders soon.
ACC Week 8 picks - Virginia Tech over Duke, Maryland over Boston College, Clemson over Georgia Tech, Virginia over Eastern Michigan, North Carolina over Miami
Week 8 outlook - Virginia should pad their win total against a miserable EMU team, and Virginia Tech should run their win streak to 6 with an easy one with Duke. Boston College has a solid defense, but they just don't score many points. Maryland just needs to take care of the ball on offense and they will find a way to win this game. Clemson is really starting to hit their stride and I expect them to take care of an inconsistent Georgia Tech team. They've seen this triple option before, and I think they will slow it down enough to get a lead, and the Yellow Jackets are not good at playing from behind. In the biggest game of the week in the ACC, I think North Carolina continues to gain steam and beats a Miami team that has had a real issue turning the ball over. Even in their wins, they cough the ball up. As long as UNC limits Miami's big plays, and plays efficiently on offense again, they should be able to beat the Hurricanes.
Big East -
The Big East race is starting to look like it was supposed to at the beginning of the year. West Virginia has been a constant at the front of the race, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who both started the year slowly, have rebounded to become a factor in the conference once again. Pitt's offensive line is starting to play with some consistency, and Cincy's offense is back to being explosive as it was last year. Syracuse reminded us that they are still Syracuse, and issues at quarterback for UConn and consistency for Rutgers have weighed those teams down. Lousville is finally starting to play well again as well.
Big East week 8 picks - Cincinnati over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Rutgers, West Virginia over Syracuse, Louisville over Connecticut
Week 8 outlook - Cincinnati is back in the groove offensively, and Isaiah Pead and Zach Collaros will put on a show against a South Florida team that has really lacked direction since Jim Leavitt was fired. Rutgers will play inspired football to rally after the severe injury to Eric LeGrand, but it won't be enough to stop a Pittsburgh team that has a dual threat backfield with Ray Graham and Dion Lewis. Their success on the ground continues to keep the pressure off Tino Sunseri, who is making things happen as a result. I expect Pitt to win a hard fought one. West Virginia should take care of Syracuse by at least 3 touchdowns. Louisville is coming together as a team, while UConn is coming unglued. The Huskies will be on their third starting qb of the season after Zac Frazier was benched and Cody Endres was kicked off the team for likely failing a drug test for the third time. The new quarterback will be overmatched in a hostile environment in Papa John's Stadium with a crowd that has been waiting a couple years for a team to cheer for. It really doesn't help that UConn is 0-3 on the road. Look for 0-4 after Saturday.
Big 12 -
The Nebraska victory tour came to a screeching halt last week against the Longhorns, mainly because the Huskers dropped 8 passes. That opens things up a little bit at the top of the conference. It will still be between Missouri and Nebraska for the North title, but if Kansas State continues to play the way they did against Kansas, don't count them out just yet. Oklahoma looks like the clear favorite in the South, but they still have the Bedlam game with Ok. St., not to mention a trip to Columbia to play Missouri this Saturday before a potential showdown with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. A lot can still happen. Oklahoma State is still undefeated, and could still be the team playing in Reliant stadium in the title game. Texas needs to hope for a repeat of two years ago when a 3-way tie in the division was decided by the BCS rankings. They would need Oklahoma State to lose only to them, and for the Cowboys to beat Oklahoma to have a shot.
Big 12 week 8 picks - Texas over Iowa State, Colorado over Texas Tech, Nebraska over Oklahoma State, Kansas State over Baylor, Texas A&M over Kansas, Oklahoma over Missouri
Week 8 outlook - Texas should be a winner easily over the conference punching bag Cyclones. Texas A&M should get rolling finally against the Jayhawks. Colorado should have a tough one with Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders haven't been as explosive as in years past, and I think the Buffaloes will pull off the win at home. Kansas State needs to keep up the explosive offense that crushed in-state rival Kansas last week, because Baylor can score some points. Robert Griffin has been very good so far, and Baylor's 5-2 start is no fluke. I like K-State to pull this one out, but it will be a close one more than likely. In the first of the two big games this weekend for the Big 12, I look for Big Red to get back on track with a win over Oklahoma State. Brandon Weeden can't run like Garrett Gilbert did last week, and the blackshirt D should shut down Kendall Hunter. It will be important for Nebraska's talented corners to find wideout Justin Blackmon on third downs, because the Cowboys will likely move him around to get better matchups to put the ball in his hands. On the offensive side of the ball, expect a more polished Nebraska attack. They need to quit fumbling the ball the way they have, but this is an OK St. defense that has given up big point totals to Tulsa and Texas A&M, and Nebraska is a little better than those teams. I expect Taylor Martinez to go back over the century mark rushing and for Nebraska to win by 2 scores. In the other big game, Oklahoma needs to make a statement against Missouri. Oregon certainly made one against UCLA on Thursday, and the Sooners need to keep pace to stay high in the human polls. Missouri has been very solid to this point of the season, but it's easy to win home games against lesser competition. The Tigers are better on defense this year than they were a season ago, and Blaine Gabbert may be the best passer in the Big 12 outside of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but they haven't played the type of athletes that Oklahoma will throw at them on Saturday night. The Sooners played their best football in the biggest game of the year against Florida State, and I expect more of the same against Mizzou. Bob Stoops will not let this team lose focus this week, and I expect the Sooners to double up the Tigers in Columbia.
Big Ten -
Last week was a wild one in the Bg Ten. As I predicted, the number one Ohio State Buckeyes went down against the Badgers.Wisconsin controlled the line of scrimmage and took it to OSU. John Clay was the first back to top 100 yards rushing against them this season. As a result, only 3 teams remain unbeaten in league play: Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue. Purdue won't be on the list for long, but MSU and Iowa must survive big games this week to play next week for control of the league. OSU and Wisconsin really have to be pulling for Iowa next week to stay in the hunt for the automatic BCS berth, as both are yet to play the Hawkeyes, while the Badgers lost to the Spartans and the Buckeyes don't play them. Outside of those 4 teams, Michigan has a bye week to hopefully stop the slide they appear to be on again. Minnesota fired head coach Tim Brewster after a disappointing 1-6 start, and Indiana barely survived a scare from Arkansas State last week. The next two weeks will tell a lot about how this league title race will shake out.
Big Ten week 8 picks - Michigan State over Northwestern, Penn State over Minnesota, Ohio State over Purdue, Illinois over Indiana, Iowa over Wisconsin
Week 8 outlook - Not a lot of gimme picks this week. Ohio State should have a huge bounceback win over Purdue, but not if Terelle Pryor doesn't play better. Purdue has won two straight and shouldn't be taken too lightly. Illinois has been very strong on the defensive side of the ball, and Indiana has an awful run defense those two things should add up to an Illini win. Ben Chappell will likely be held under 300 yards for just the third time this season. Penn State has been just awful so far this year, and hopefully a matchup with Minnesota will cure what ails them. Evan Royster should have a great game in a win, but with their head coach getting axed, the Gophers have nothing to lose. That could make them very dangerous for the Nittany Lions. Michigan State heads into Ryan Field in Evanston, IL to take on Northwestern in their first game all year outside the state of Michigan. This looks like a classic trap game for the Spartans with a trip to Iowa up next for Sparty. Some would argue that it isn't a trap game when the opponent is 5-1, same as Iowa, but Northwestern is no Iowa. I would buy that argument for not calling Wisconsin and Iowa a trap game for the Hawkeyes or a letdown game for the Badgers coming off the big upset of OSU. That game is neither of those things since both teams are so good. Northwestern on the other hand, has padded the win total with games against Vanderbilt, Illinois State, Rice, Central Michigan and Minnesota, and suffered a loss to lowly Purdue. Northwestern is well coached however, and should not be taken lightly by MSU. The Spartans need to get the ground game going early and grind away NU's will to play this game. I don't expect a blowout, but I expect Michigan State to stay focused and not fall into the trap. Iowa and Wisconsin in Iowa City is the biggest game of the week. Iowa has the toughest defense in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin is no slouch on that side of the ball either. This game will likely be decided by which quarterback makes the most third down plays, and which one avoids the big turnovers. These two teams have been among the most consistent in the country to date, and this game will come down to the final couple of drives. I think Ricky Stanzi makes just enough plays to top Scott Tolzien and the Badgers, in yet another physical game for Wisconsin.
Pac-10 -
Oregon sat last week on a bye as they got to watch Oklahoma pummel hapless Iowa State to move into the top spot in the BCS. Unfair as it may seem, they took out their frustrations last night on the UCLA Bruins. They dropped 60 on Rick Neuheisel's squad to which he could only reply, "That was impressive." Coaches don't even know what to say after facing this offense. The only game all year that they were in danger of losing was against Arizona State, a game in which they turned the ball over 7 times and won by ONLY 11 points. Really? Eleven points when you give the ball away 7 times? Now that's impressive. What's more impressive is that the Ducks actually have the best turnover margin in the country despite those seven giveaways in one game. Their opportunistic defense makes the offense look even better by giving them short fields to work with. This team is going to be very hard to beat anytime soon. With only three games on the slate last weekend in the Pac-10 not much was decided. Jake Locker and the Huskies continued to be up and down with a thrilling win over Oregon State by a single point in Seattle. It was the Beavers first loss in the league, and their first loss to a team that is not currently undefeated. Speaking of up and down teams, California followed up a trouncing of UCLA by getting whalloped by USC 48-14. USC is getting their act together in time to host Oregon in a week, while Cal continues to play well at home and poorly on the road. In their 3 home games, they average winning by about 40 points, with the closest game being a 28-pointer over UCLA. On the road, however, they are 0-3 and average losing by about 20 points per game. Only a 1-point loss at Arizona really strays from the norm for this team. Through seven weeks, Oregon and Stanford are still in charge, with the pack nipping at their heels thinning every week, and Arizona without Nick Foles may be the next to fall.
Pac-10 week 8 picks - Oregon over UCLA (already happened), California over Arizona State, Stanford over Washington State, Wahington over Arizona
Week 8 outlook - I would have picked Oregon to win anyway, but likely not by 47 points, which is the margin they dispatched of the Bruins by. California gets Arizona State at home, and I just discussed what they do to teams in their stadium. The Bears tend to blow people out at home, and I wouldn't be shocked if that trend continues. Arizona State is a decent team, but Cal is tough when they are clicking. Washington State is improving, but c'mon, Stanford will likely manhandle them, especially in Palo Alto. The toughest game to predict this week is between Washington and Arizona. If Nick Foles were healthy, I would pick Arizona hands down. It would play into Washington's season-long trend of alternating wins and losses. They are due for a loss. But, Nick Foles sprained knee will keep him out of action on Saturday, and that is good news for the Huskies. They have been very good in conference games against ranked opponents, and I think the qb issue for the Wildcats is enough to continue that trend. This will be a close game, but I believe Locker and the Huskies pull out another one.
SEC -
Well, it seems clear to me now that all of the power in the Southeastern Conference resides in the West division. Every team in the East has 3 conference losses except for South Carolina and Vandy, who each have two. Meanwhile, no one in the West has more than 2 league losses, and LSU and Auburn remain unbeaten overall and Alabama has just one loss. To drive the point home a little more, the West is 10-2 head-to-head against the East, with the only losses coming by Ole Miss to Vanderbilt and the infamous South Carolina upset of Alabama. There are only a few games left that the East will even have a fighting chance in against the West. With all of that said, the race for West supremacy could be a race for a national title berth, and the biggest game in that race is this weekend between LSU and Auburn. This game won't decide anything, as both teams still have to play Alabama, but it would be a nice leg up on the division for someone. The East is really anyone's guess at this point, with Florida and South Carolina looking like the the frontrunners, but even Georgia, Vandy and Kentucky can't be counted out yet.
SEC week 8 picks - Arkansas over Ole Miss, Auburn over LSU, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State over UAB, Alabama over Tennessee, Georgia over Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - In the one East vs. West matchup of the week, the West should again win easily as 'Bama is much better than the Vols. Mississippi State will get bowl eligible this week with a win over an outgunned UAB team. They just need to not come out flat after an emotional win over Florida. If Vanderbilt can upset South Caroina this week, they woud be alone in first place in the East. That's a crazy thing to say about a team that just lost 43-0 last week, but it's true. Marcus Lattimore being out for the Gamecocks makes this a game worth watching, but Stephen Garcia will consistently look to Alshon Jeffries, and the hard-hitting Gamecock defense will rule the day with a big win to take first for themselves. Boy, what a difference AJ Green makes for the Bulldogs of Georgia. Aaron Murray has played much better since his top target returned from suspension and the team has rolled to two straight big divisional wins, outscoring Tennessee and Vanderbilt by a combined 70 points. If that Bulldog offense continues to roll this week, they should outlast a pretty solid Kentucky team that can score a lot of points themselves. A win by the Bulldogs keeps them hoping that the SEC title game isn't out of the question. Arkansas gets an Ole Miss team that can score some points, and they must be better on defense this week. Allowing 65 to Auburn is not a way to win a big game. Ryan Mallett will be back, which should help. Backup Tyler Wilson was tremendous in relief last week until late in the game, when a couple of untimely picks put Arkansas away. The Razorbacks should score plenty of points in this one as long as Mallett doesn't show any lingering effects from his concussion, and the Hogs should win by about 17. In the game of the week in all of college football, The Tigers of LSU battle the Tigers of Auburn. This one won't be pulled out by some Les Miles magic act. This game will be won with good, hard-nosed football. The biggest factor in the game is that Auburn's biggest defensive deficiency is in the passing game, and LSU cannot throw the ball. Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson will have to be tremendous in the passing game, which they haven't been all year. It wouldn't hurt the Bayou Bengals if they can finally get Russell Shepard going the way many experts predicted they would from day one. When Auburn has the ball, look for Cam Newton to continue to be the focal point. LSU will come out with a gameplan to stop him, but Auburn isn't the type of team to get cute and try do go outside of what they normally do to catch LSU off guard. No matter how many tacklers you throw at him, it's never easy to stop a guy who's 6-6, 250 lbs. and can run like Newton does. It doesn't hurt that he has become a better passer as the year has gone on. If that LSU offense doesn't find some rhythm early in this game, they could be playing catch-up all day. I expect the Auburn Tigers to win a close one and take control of the SEC West.
Best of the Rest -
On top of being disrespected by the computers, Boise and TCU both saw their title chances hurt in another way last Saturday as Air Force fell to San Diego State on a missed 2-point conversion, and Nevada fell to Hawaii by 6 after throwing a pick on their final drive that started with an onside kick recovery. This news certainly hurts Boise a little more than TCU, as the Horned Frogs still have Utah ahead, but any knocks to the strength of schedule are devastating to these two teams right now. One way that these teams could really improve their chances of being selected for the national title game is to stage a game between the Mountain West champ and the WAC champ the same weekend as the other conference title games. It's a little late for this idea now that the other leagues are pilfering teams from these leagues, but it's still worth mentioning. If Boise and TCU were to both run the table, a game between the two would give one of them a big quality win and boost the strength of schedule. Granted, it would be tough on the team that loses, but if the conferences wanted to be taken seriously as title contenders, they would try this. The biggest argument against it is that the losing team could be knocked out of a BCS bowl game, costing them and their conference a huge payday. My solution is to split the profits of the Boise-TCU game 60-40 with the bigger share going to the loser. I know it seems like a wild idea, but aren't wild ideas what make Boise so much fun to watch anyway? Isn't that why America fell in love with this team when they beat Oklahoma? They do nothing but win, and get nothing but overlooked. That goes for TCU as well. Wouldn't we have to take notice of two unbeaten teams playing each other in early December? I'd think so. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, the most important developments are coming out of Conference-USA, where East Carolina defeated North Carolina State to pull off a huge upset. The Pirates are now 4-2 overall and 3-0 in conference play, and really are starting to make some noise. SMU and UCF are also undefeated in league play in what is shaping up to be a good year for the conference.
Other week 8 picks - Notre Dame over Navy, TCU over Air Force, Temple over Buffalo, Utah over Colorado State, Fresno State over San Jose State, Northern Illinois over Central Michigan, East Carolina over Marshall, SMU over Houston, UTEP over Tulane, San Diego State over New Mexico, Hawaii over Utah State, BYU over Wyoming, Central Florida over Rice, Idaho over New Mexico State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Ohio over Miami OH, Arkansas State over Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State over Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette over Western Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - Notre Dame has had recent struggles with Navy, but i think they slow down Ricky Dobbs and the Midshipmen enough to get the W. This is the kind of game Notre Dame has to win to keep hoping for a solid bowl game. Temple and NIU should keep controlling the MAC with wins this week. ECU, SMU, UCF should remain unbeaten in C-USA play fairly easily, while SMU might struggle with Houston, but should still find a way to win. Hawaii should build on the momentum of their win over Nevada with another win. Utah gets a Colorado St. team that finally found a little offense last week, but they should lose it again aginst the Utes. The biggest non-AQ game of the week pits TCU against Air Force. The Horned Frogs must be smart against the spread running attack that Air Force runs. I doubt they hold a 4th straight opponent touchdownless, but that defense is smothering and the game is at home. TCU should win by 2-3 scores.
Conference Rankings -
1. SEC - The West may hold all the strength, but there is a lot of strength there.
2. Big Ten - Loss by Ohio State just creates more depth at the top of the league as OSU, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all have one loss or fewer.
3. Big 12 - Even with Nebraska falling, there are still 3 unbeatens here as only the SEC and MWC have even 2.
4. Pac-10 - Slip-up by Oregon State thins the lead group, and injury to Nick Foles could thin it further.
5. ACC - FSU is the class of the conference, but Clemson, VT, and North Carolina all look good as well.
6. Mountain West - Even with Air Force loss, TCU and Utah are both top 10 teams.
7. WAC - The league loses an unbeaten, but Hawaii adds overall depth.
8. C-USA - Big ECU upset keeps them above Big East for now
9. Big East - Pitt and Cincy are rebounding from slow starts while WVU stays strong, but UConn and Rutgers may be falling apart, and Syracuse is really not good.
10. MAC - A couple other potential bowl teams have come out in Toledo and Miami OH, to go along with the Owls and Huskies
11. Sun Belt - Still nothing of note here.
My Top 25 Rankings
1. Oregon - 7-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 7-0 (3)
3. Boise St. - 6-0 (4)
4. Oklahoma - 6-0 (6)
5. Auburn - 7-0 (7)
6. Alabama - 6-1 (8)
7. Iowa - 5-1 (9)
8. LSU - 7-0 (11)
9. Utah - 6-0 (10)
10. Michigan St. - 7-0 (12)
11. Ohio St. - 6-1 (2)
12. Nebraska - 5-1 (5)
13. Stanford - 5-1 (15)
14. Wisconsin - 6-1 (16)
15. Florida St. - 6-1 (20)
16. Oklahoma St. - 6-0 (19)
17. Arizona - 5-1 (17)
18. Arkansas - 4-2 (13)
19. Missouri 6-0 (23
20. West Virginia - 5-1 (UNR)
21. South Carolina - 4-2 (14)
22. Virginia Tech - 5-2 (UNR)
23. Texas - 4-2 (UNR)
24. Kansas St. - 5-1 (UNR)
25. Mississippi St. 5-2 (UNR)
Dropped from the rankings: Nevada (18), Florida (21), Air Force (22), NC State (24), and Michigan (25)
ACC -
It was an interesting week in the ACC as most of the expected winners came out on top, but one major casualty was the NC State Wolfpack. NC State went down at the hands of Ruffin McNeil's East Carolina Pirates who have been playing pretty good football so far. It isn't a conference loss, but if the Wolfpack wants to be a real threat to Florida State in the atlantic division they have to play better than this. North Carolina continues to lock in as they get used to the lineup without many of their big stars. The players that are eligible took down Virginia by 34 points on Saturday. Florida State reverted to earlier season form by struggling mightily to get by a mediocre Boston College team with Christian Ponder turning the ball over 4 times. There will be teams that will beat the Noles if they continue to play sloppy football. The conference has a lot of contenders, and things will continue to get more intense as the schedule starts to eliminate the pretenders soon.
ACC Week 8 picks - Virginia Tech over Duke, Maryland over Boston College, Clemson over Georgia Tech, Virginia over Eastern Michigan, North Carolina over Miami
Week 8 outlook - Virginia should pad their win total against a miserable EMU team, and Virginia Tech should run their win streak to 6 with an easy one with Duke. Boston College has a solid defense, but they just don't score many points. Maryland just needs to take care of the ball on offense and they will find a way to win this game. Clemson is really starting to hit their stride and I expect them to take care of an inconsistent Georgia Tech team. They've seen this triple option before, and I think they will slow it down enough to get a lead, and the Yellow Jackets are not good at playing from behind. In the biggest game of the week in the ACC, I think North Carolina continues to gain steam and beats a Miami team that has had a real issue turning the ball over. Even in their wins, they cough the ball up. As long as UNC limits Miami's big plays, and plays efficiently on offense again, they should be able to beat the Hurricanes.
Big East -
The Big East race is starting to look like it was supposed to at the beginning of the year. West Virginia has been a constant at the front of the race, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who both started the year slowly, have rebounded to become a factor in the conference once again. Pitt's offensive line is starting to play with some consistency, and Cincy's offense is back to being explosive as it was last year. Syracuse reminded us that they are still Syracuse, and issues at quarterback for UConn and consistency for Rutgers have weighed those teams down. Lousville is finally starting to play well again as well.
Big East week 8 picks - Cincinnati over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Rutgers, West Virginia over Syracuse, Louisville over Connecticut
Week 8 outlook - Cincinnati is back in the groove offensively, and Isaiah Pead and Zach Collaros will put on a show against a South Florida team that has really lacked direction since Jim Leavitt was fired. Rutgers will play inspired football to rally after the severe injury to Eric LeGrand, but it won't be enough to stop a Pittsburgh team that has a dual threat backfield with Ray Graham and Dion Lewis. Their success on the ground continues to keep the pressure off Tino Sunseri, who is making things happen as a result. I expect Pitt to win a hard fought one. West Virginia should take care of Syracuse by at least 3 touchdowns. Louisville is coming together as a team, while UConn is coming unglued. The Huskies will be on their third starting qb of the season after Zac Frazier was benched and Cody Endres was kicked off the team for likely failing a drug test for the third time. The new quarterback will be overmatched in a hostile environment in Papa John's Stadium with a crowd that has been waiting a couple years for a team to cheer for. It really doesn't help that UConn is 0-3 on the road. Look for 0-4 after Saturday.
Big 12 -
The Nebraska victory tour came to a screeching halt last week against the Longhorns, mainly because the Huskers dropped 8 passes. That opens things up a little bit at the top of the conference. It will still be between Missouri and Nebraska for the North title, but if Kansas State continues to play the way they did against Kansas, don't count them out just yet. Oklahoma looks like the clear favorite in the South, but they still have the Bedlam game with Ok. St., not to mention a trip to Columbia to play Missouri this Saturday before a potential showdown with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. A lot can still happen. Oklahoma State is still undefeated, and could still be the team playing in Reliant stadium in the title game. Texas needs to hope for a repeat of two years ago when a 3-way tie in the division was decided by the BCS rankings. They would need Oklahoma State to lose only to them, and for the Cowboys to beat Oklahoma to have a shot.
Big 12 week 8 picks - Texas over Iowa State, Colorado over Texas Tech, Nebraska over Oklahoma State, Kansas State over Baylor, Texas A&M over Kansas, Oklahoma over Missouri
Week 8 outlook - Texas should be a winner easily over the conference punching bag Cyclones. Texas A&M should get rolling finally against the Jayhawks. Colorado should have a tough one with Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders haven't been as explosive as in years past, and I think the Buffaloes will pull off the win at home. Kansas State needs to keep up the explosive offense that crushed in-state rival Kansas last week, because Baylor can score some points. Robert Griffin has been very good so far, and Baylor's 5-2 start is no fluke. I like K-State to pull this one out, but it will be a close one more than likely. In the first of the two big games this weekend for the Big 12, I look for Big Red to get back on track with a win over Oklahoma State. Brandon Weeden can't run like Garrett Gilbert did last week, and the blackshirt D should shut down Kendall Hunter. It will be important for Nebraska's talented corners to find wideout Justin Blackmon on third downs, because the Cowboys will likely move him around to get better matchups to put the ball in his hands. On the offensive side of the ball, expect a more polished Nebraska attack. They need to quit fumbling the ball the way they have, but this is an OK St. defense that has given up big point totals to Tulsa and Texas A&M, and Nebraska is a little better than those teams. I expect Taylor Martinez to go back over the century mark rushing and for Nebraska to win by 2 scores. In the other big game, Oklahoma needs to make a statement against Missouri. Oregon certainly made one against UCLA on Thursday, and the Sooners need to keep pace to stay high in the human polls. Missouri has been very solid to this point of the season, but it's easy to win home games against lesser competition. The Tigers are better on defense this year than they were a season ago, and Blaine Gabbert may be the best passer in the Big 12 outside of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but they haven't played the type of athletes that Oklahoma will throw at them on Saturday night. The Sooners played their best football in the biggest game of the year against Florida State, and I expect more of the same against Mizzou. Bob Stoops will not let this team lose focus this week, and I expect the Sooners to double up the Tigers in Columbia.
Big Ten -
Last week was a wild one in the Bg Ten. As I predicted, the number one Ohio State Buckeyes went down against the Badgers.Wisconsin controlled the line of scrimmage and took it to OSU. John Clay was the first back to top 100 yards rushing against them this season. As a result, only 3 teams remain unbeaten in league play: Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue. Purdue won't be on the list for long, but MSU and Iowa must survive big games this week to play next week for control of the league. OSU and Wisconsin really have to be pulling for Iowa next week to stay in the hunt for the automatic BCS berth, as both are yet to play the Hawkeyes, while the Badgers lost to the Spartans and the Buckeyes don't play them. Outside of those 4 teams, Michigan has a bye week to hopefully stop the slide they appear to be on again. Minnesota fired head coach Tim Brewster after a disappointing 1-6 start, and Indiana barely survived a scare from Arkansas State last week. The next two weeks will tell a lot about how this league title race will shake out.
Big Ten week 8 picks - Michigan State over Northwestern, Penn State over Minnesota, Ohio State over Purdue, Illinois over Indiana, Iowa over Wisconsin
Week 8 outlook - Not a lot of gimme picks this week. Ohio State should have a huge bounceback win over Purdue, but not if Terelle Pryor doesn't play better. Purdue has won two straight and shouldn't be taken too lightly. Illinois has been very strong on the defensive side of the ball, and Indiana has an awful run defense those two things should add up to an Illini win. Ben Chappell will likely be held under 300 yards for just the third time this season. Penn State has been just awful so far this year, and hopefully a matchup with Minnesota will cure what ails them. Evan Royster should have a great game in a win, but with their head coach getting axed, the Gophers have nothing to lose. That could make them very dangerous for the Nittany Lions. Michigan State heads into Ryan Field in Evanston, IL to take on Northwestern in their first game all year outside the state of Michigan. This looks like a classic trap game for the Spartans with a trip to Iowa up next for Sparty. Some would argue that it isn't a trap game when the opponent is 5-1, same as Iowa, but Northwestern is no Iowa. I would buy that argument for not calling Wisconsin and Iowa a trap game for the Hawkeyes or a letdown game for the Badgers coming off the big upset of OSU. That game is neither of those things since both teams are so good. Northwestern on the other hand, has padded the win total with games against Vanderbilt, Illinois State, Rice, Central Michigan and Minnesota, and suffered a loss to lowly Purdue. Northwestern is well coached however, and should not be taken lightly by MSU. The Spartans need to get the ground game going early and grind away NU's will to play this game. I don't expect a blowout, but I expect Michigan State to stay focused and not fall into the trap. Iowa and Wisconsin in Iowa City is the biggest game of the week. Iowa has the toughest defense in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin is no slouch on that side of the ball either. This game will likely be decided by which quarterback makes the most third down plays, and which one avoids the big turnovers. These two teams have been among the most consistent in the country to date, and this game will come down to the final couple of drives. I think Ricky Stanzi makes just enough plays to top Scott Tolzien and the Badgers, in yet another physical game for Wisconsin.
Pac-10 -
Oregon sat last week on a bye as they got to watch Oklahoma pummel hapless Iowa State to move into the top spot in the BCS. Unfair as it may seem, they took out their frustrations last night on the UCLA Bruins. They dropped 60 on Rick Neuheisel's squad to which he could only reply, "That was impressive." Coaches don't even know what to say after facing this offense. The only game all year that they were in danger of losing was against Arizona State, a game in which they turned the ball over 7 times and won by ONLY 11 points. Really? Eleven points when you give the ball away 7 times? Now that's impressive. What's more impressive is that the Ducks actually have the best turnover margin in the country despite those seven giveaways in one game. Their opportunistic defense makes the offense look even better by giving them short fields to work with. This team is going to be very hard to beat anytime soon. With only three games on the slate last weekend in the Pac-10 not much was decided. Jake Locker and the Huskies continued to be up and down with a thrilling win over Oregon State by a single point in Seattle. It was the Beavers first loss in the league, and their first loss to a team that is not currently undefeated. Speaking of up and down teams, California followed up a trouncing of UCLA by getting whalloped by USC 48-14. USC is getting their act together in time to host Oregon in a week, while Cal continues to play well at home and poorly on the road. In their 3 home games, they average winning by about 40 points, with the closest game being a 28-pointer over UCLA. On the road, however, they are 0-3 and average losing by about 20 points per game. Only a 1-point loss at Arizona really strays from the norm for this team. Through seven weeks, Oregon and Stanford are still in charge, with the pack nipping at their heels thinning every week, and Arizona without Nick Foles may be the next to fall.
Pac-10 week 8 picks - Oregon over UCLA (already happened), California over Arizona State, Stanford over Washington State, Wahington over Arizona
Week 8 outlook - I would have picked Oregon to win anyway, but likely not by 47 points, which is the margin they dispatched of the Bruins by. California gets Arizona State at home, and I just discussed what they do to teams in their stadium. The Bears tend to blow people out at home, and I wouldn't be shocked if that trend continues. Arizona State is a decent team, but Cal is tough when they are clicking. Washington State is improving, but c'mon, Stanford will likely manhandle them, especially in Palo Alto. The toughest game to predict this week is between Washington and Arizona. If Nick Foles were healthy, I would pick Arizona hands down. It would play into Washington's season-long trend of alternating wins and losses. They are due for a loss. But, Nick Foles sprained knee will keep him out of action on Saturday, and that is good news for the Huskies. They have been very good in conference games against ranked opponents, and I think the qb issue for the Wildcats is enough to continue that trend. This will be a close game, but I believe Locker and the Huskies pull out another one.
SEC -
Well, it seems clear to me now that all of the power in the Southeastern Conference resides in the West division. Every team in the East has 3 conference losses except for South Carolina and Vandy, who each have two. Meanwhile, no one in the West has more than 2 league losses, and LSU and Auburn remain unbeaten overall and Alabama has just one loss. To drive the point home a little more, the West is 10-2 head-to-head against the East, with the only losses coming by Ole Miss to Vanderbilt and the infamous South Carolina upset of Alabama. There are only a few games left that the East will even have a fighting chance in against the West. With all of that said, the race for West supremacy could be a race for a national title berth, and the biggest game in that race is this weekend between LSU and Auburn. This game won't decide anything, as both teams still have to play Alabama, but it would be a nice leg up on the division for someone. The East is really anyone's guess at this point, with Florida and South Carolina looking like the the frontrunners, but even Georgia, Vandy and Kentucky can't be counted out yet.
SEC week 8 picks - Arkansas over Ole Miss, Auburn over LSU, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State over UAB, Alabama over Tennessee, Georgia over Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - In the one East vs. West matchup of the week, the West should again win easily as 'Bama is much better than the Vols. Mississippi State will get bowl eligible this week with a win over an outgunned UAB team. They just need to not come out flat after an emotional win over Florida. If Vanderbilt can upset South Caroina this week, they woud be alone in first place in the East. That's a crazy thing to say about a team that just lost 43-0 last week, but it's true. Marcus Lattimore being out for the Gamecocks makes this a game worth watching, but Stephen Garcia will consistently look to Alshon Jeffries, and the hard-hitting Gamecock defense will rule the day with a big win to take first for themselves. Boy, what a difference AJ Green makes for the Bulldogs of Georgia. Aaron Murray has played much better since his top target returned from suspension and the team has rolled to two straight big divisional wins, outscoring Tennessee and Vanderbilt by a combined 70 points. If that Bulldog offense continues to roll this week, they should outlast a pretty solid Kentucky team that can score a lot of points themselves. A win by the Bulldogs keeps them hoping that the SEC title game isn't out of the question. Arkansas gets an Ole Miss team that can score some points, and they must be better on defense this week. Allowing 65 to Auburn is not a way to win a big game. Ryan Mallett will be back, which should help. Backup Tyler Wilson was tremendous in relief last week until late in the game, when a couple of untimely picks put Arkansas away. The Razorbacks should score plenty of points in this one as long as Mallett doesn't show any lingering effects from his concussion, and the Hogs should win by about 17. In the game of the week in all of college football, The Tigers of LSU battle the Tigers of Auburn. This one won't be pulled out by some Les Miles magic act. This game will be won with good, hard-nosed football. The biggest factor in the game is that Auburn's biggest defensive deficiency is in the passing game, and LSU cannot throw the ball. Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson will have to be tremendous in the passing game, which they haven't been all year. It wouldn't hurt the Bayou Bengals if they can finally get Russell Shepard going the way many experts predicted they would from day one. When Auburn has the ball, look for Cam Newton to continue to be the focal point. LSU will come out with a gameplan to stop him, but Auburn isn't the type of team to get cute and try do go outside of what they normally do to catch LSU off guard. No matter how many tacklers you throw at him, it's never easy to stop a guy who's 6-6, 250 lbs. and can run like Newton does. It doesn't hurt that he has become a better passer as the year has gone on. If that LSU offense doesn't find some rhythm early in this game, they could be playing catch-up all day. I expect the Auburn Tigers to win a close one and take control of the SEC West.
Best of the Rest -
On top of being disrespected by the computers, Boise and TCU both saw their title chances hurt in another way last Saturday as Air Force fell to San Diego State on a missed 2-point conversion, and Nevada fell to Hawaii by 6 after throwing a pick on their final drive that started with an onside kick recovery. This news certainly hurts Boise a little more than TCU, as the Horned Frogs still have Utah ahead, but any knocks to the strength of schedule are devastating to these two teams right now. One way that these teams could really improve their chances of being selected for the national title game is to stage a game between the Mountain West champ and the WAC champ the same weekend as the other conference title games. It's a little late for this idea now that the other leagues are pilfering teams from these leagues, but it's still worth mentioning. If Boise and TCU were to both run the table, a game between the two would give one of them a big quality win and boost the strength of schedule. Granted, it would be tough on the team that loses, but if the conferences wanted to be taken seriously as title contenders, they would try this. The biggest argument against it is that the losing team could be knocked out of a BCS bowl game, costing them and their conference a huge payday. My solution is to split the profits of the Boise-TCU game 60-40 with the bigger share going to the loser. I know it seems like a wild idea, but aren't wild ideas what make Boise so much fun to watch anyway? Isn't that why America fell in love with this team when they beat Oklahoma? They do nothing but win, and get nothing but overlooked. That goes for TCU as well. Wouldn't we have to take notice of two unbeaten teams playing each other in early December? I'd think so. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, the most important developments are coming out of Conference-USA, where East Carolina defeated North Carolina State to pull off a huge upset. The Pirates are now 4-2 overall and 3-0 in conference play, and really are starting to make some noise. SMU and UCF are also undefeated in league play in what is shaping up to be a good year for the conference.
Other week 8 picks - Notre Dame over Navy, TCU over Air Force, Temple over Buffalo, Utah over Colorado State, Fresno State over San Jose State, Northern Illinois over Central Michigan, East Carolina over Marshall, SMU over Houston, UTEP over Tulane, San Diego State over New Mexico, Hawaii over Utah State, BYU over Wyoming, Central Florida over Rice, Idaho over New Mexico State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Ohio over Miami OH, Arkansas State over Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State over Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette over Western Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - Notre Dame has had recent struggles with Navy, but i think they slow down Ricky Dobbs and the Midshipmen enough to get the W. This is the kind of game Notre Dame has to win to keep hoping for a solid bowl game. Temple and NIU should keep controlling the MAC with wins this week. ECU, SMU, UCF should remain unbeaten in C-USA play fairly easily, while SMU might struggle with Houston, but should still find a way to win. Hawaii should build on the momentum of their win over Nevada with another win. Utah gets a Colorado St. team that finally found a little offense last week, but they should lose it again aginst the Utes. The biggest non-AQ game of the week pits TCU against Air Force. The Horned Frogs must be smart against the spread running attack that Air Force runs. I doubt they hold a 4th straight opponent touchdownless, but that defense is smothering and the game is at home. TCU should win by 2-3 scores.
Conference Rankings -
1. SEC - The West may hold all the strength, but there is a lot of strength there.
2. Big Ten - Loss by Ohio State just creates more depth at the top of the league as OSU, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all have one loss or fewer.
3. Big 12 - Even with Nebraska falling, there are still 3 unbeatens here as only the SEC and MWC have even 2.
4. Pac-10 - Slip-up by Oregon State thins the lead group, and injury to Nick Foles could thin it further.
5. ACC - FSU is the class of the conference, but Clemson, VT, and North Carolina all look good as well.
6. Mountain West - Even with Air Force loss, TCU and Utah are both top 10 teams.
7. WAC - The league loses an unbeaten, but Hawaii adds overall depth.
8. C-USA - Big ECU upset keeps them above Big East for now
9. Big East - Pitt and Cincy are rebounding from slow starts while WVU stays strong, but UConn and Rutgers may be falling apart, and Syracuse is really not good.
10. MAC - A couple other potential bowl teams have come out in Toledo and Miami OH, to go along with the Owls and Huskies
11. Sun Belt - Still nothing of note here.
My Top 25 Rankings
1. Oregon - 7-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 7-0 (3)
3. Boise St. - 6-0 (4)
4. Oklahoma - 6-0 (6)
5. Auburn - 7-0 (7)
6. Alabama - 6-1 (8)
7. Iowa - 5-1 (9)
8. LSU - 7-0 (11)
9. Utah - 6-0 (10)
10. Michigan St. - 7-0 (12)
11. Ohio St. - 6-1 (2)
12. Nebraska - 5-1 (5)
13. Stanford - 5-1 (15)
14. Wisconsin - 6-1 (16)
15. Florida St. - 6-1 (20)
16. Oklahoma St. - 6-0 (19)
17. Arizona - 5-1 (17)
18. Arkansas - 4-2 (13)
19. Missouri 6-0 (23
20. West Virginia - 5-1 (UNR)
21. South Carolina - 4-2 (14)
22. Virginia Tech - 5-2 (UNR)
23. Texas - 4-2 (UNR)
24. Kansas St. - 5-1 (UNR)
25. Mississippi St. 5-2 (UNR)
Dropped from the rankings: Nevada (18), Florida (21), Air Force (22), NC State (24), and Michigan (25)
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
What We've Learned in College Football: Week 6
WOW, what a wild week 6 in the world of college football. The kings have fallen. Alabama, who hadn't lost a game since losing the Sugar Bowl to Utah after the 2008 season, a string of 19 consecutive victories, got manhandled by South Carolina Saturday evening. The Tide failed to run the ball, and they failed to do much of anything to slow down the Gamecock offense. The resulting 35-21 loss has left a lot of upheaval at the top of the rankings. There are now 13 unbeaten teams vying for just two spots in the national title game. For Alabama to get back to the championship, they will need a lot of help. Some of that help would have to come from Les Miles and LSU, who pulled another rabbit out of their hat to stay unbeaten this past weekend. I don't know what kind of mystical clock mismanagement powers this guy has, but his Tigers always seem to win when they try to give a game away. Last week, they were bailed out by an unprepared Tennessee team that lined up 13 players for what should have been the final play. This week, Les Miles actually ran down the clock to sell that the Tigers were going to kick a field goal, then called a timeout that could have essentially iced his own kicker. You would almost expect some Les Miles trickery, but the Florida Gators were not ready, and the ensuing fake that magically bounced straight up off the ground into the arms of the waiting LSU kicker to run for the first down was nothing short of miraculous. Les Miles will eventually run out of miracles. The question is when. As things stand now, Ohio State and Oregon would be the top two, and would be slated to play for the title if the season ended today. However, there are 11 other unbeatens in Boise State, TCU, LSU, Michigan State, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nevada, Utah and Auburn who would all like to stake their claim to those spots. There is a lot of season left, and a lot can still change.
ACC -
Every time the ACC seems to be taking a step forward, one of their big teams takes an embarrassing loss. It happened when the Seminoles were routed by Oklahoma, when Kansas topped Georgia Tech, when James Madison bested Virginia Tech, and now league favorite Miami gets pasted by the same Seminoles that couldn't finish closer than 30 behind the Sooners. The vaunted Canes defense was absolutely rocked by FSU running backs Jermaine Thomas and Chris Thompson, who combined for 236 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and Thomas added another score receiving. The 'Noles kept Jacory Harris in check by not allowing the big throws downfield that Miami has used to pick apart other opponents. Around the rest of the ACC, Virginia lost to Georgia Tech, Wake Forest fell to Navy, Virginia Tech rattled off their fourth straight win, this time over Central Michigan, and NC St. bounced back from a tough loss to Va. Tech by beating up on Boston College, 44-17, showing off a more vintage Russell Wilson performance. In another big ACC game this week, North Carolina further buried Clemson in the conference race with a tough 21-16 win over the Tigers. They put the game away by milking 5 minutes off the clock with their 5-point lead, and gave the ball back to Clemson with only 13 seconds remaining. As their suspensions become more defined, the Tar Heels seem to be gaining confidence and focus on the field with their young team. While Virginia Tech and Miami seem more stocked with talent, UNC could be a pesky team in the Coastal divission that just won't go away. In the Atlantic, Clemson's 0-2 ACC start makes it seem more and more likely that the winner of the FSU-NC St. game will win the division.
ACC week 7 picks - Florida State over Boston College, North Carolina St. over East Carolina, Clemson over Maryland, Miami over Dukc, Georgia Tech over Middle Tennessee St., Virginia Tech over Wake Forest, North Carolina over Virginia
Week 7 outlook - There really aren't a whole lot of tough calls on the ACC slate this week, as none of the top teams play each other. FSU should continue to roll and Miami should bounce back in grand fashion over the Dukies. Georgia Tech is hard to rely on, but c'mon, they have to be better than MTSU. Clemson needs to avoid coming out flat after losing tough games to Auburn, Miami, and North Carolina in their last 3 contests, but they should be able to take Maryland down. If there was one game I could be wrong on, it is UNC-Virginia. Just as I start to trust in North Carolina as a strong team, I have to keep in mind that they are a very young team, one that may overlook the less than imposing Caaliers on the schedule. I doubt Butch Davis will let that happen, but that could be an interesting game if the Tar Heels don't put in full effort from the opening kick.
Big East -
As another week passes, it becomes clear that no one wants to stand up and take control of the Big Least. UConn looks great one week with new quarterback Cody Endres, then can't beat a Rutgers team that was starting freshman quarterback Chas Dodd thanks to an injury to starter Tom Savage. Dodd looked great in the game, but UConn struggled with their own passing game and clutch defense late in the game, surrendering 10 points in the final 4 minutes to lose this one. Wst Virginia and Cincinnati crushed their opponents last Saturday, but UNLV and Miami OH hardly qualify as quality wins. The margins were still impressive though. Pittsburgh came up short again, this time against Notre Dame after falling behind 17-3 by the half. Syracuse stunned South Florida in Tampa, matching their conference win total of each of the past four seasons at one. The big difference is that they are 1-0 this year, not 1-6. It is a surprise, but in the Big East, anything can happen. Louisville also made a statement last saturday by blanking a not-so-good Memphis team, 56-0. West Virginia and Cincy still appear to be the class of the league, with Cincy bouncing back from a slow start and WVU only having one defeat in their fairly weak schedule, and their head-to-head matchup should determine who gets a BCS bid.
Big East week 7 picks - West Virginia over South Florida, Cincinnati over Louisville, Pittsburgh over Syracuse, Rutgers over Army
Week 7 outlook - West Virginia has been the best team in the league so far, and South Florida has underperformed. It's hard to see the Bulls going into Morgantown and upending the Mountaineers, even if B.J. Daniels plays out of his mind. Cincy is finding their stride under new coach Butch Jones at just the right time as they get a Louisville team that is coming off easily its best game of the season. I think Collaros and the Bearcats go into Louisville and pick up the road win, but this could be a close one if the Cardinals continue to play the way they did against Memphis. Syracuse is off to a 4-1 overall start, their best since 1999, but the competition really hasn't been anything to mention, while Pitt has been out losing to Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame. I think Pitt finally breaks through and finds a win. their run game has been getting better as their offensive line gels, and Tino Sunseri looks like a real quarterback with the pressure eased off him by the ground game. I like Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to both find the end zone and Pitt to win by 3 touchdowns or more. Rutgers might get tested by Army, but if Chas Dodd is still under center, this offense will be tough for the Cadets to stop and I think the Scarlet Knights pick up the home victory.
Big 12 -
For the last few weeks I have touted this as a down year for the Big 12, but through 6 weeks of the season, there are still four undefeated Big 12 squads while no other league boasts more than two. Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State just keep on winning. While only one team can finish unbeaten in the league at the end of the season, a Big 12 title game between undefeated Nebraska and undefeated Oklahoma seems very plausible. Missouri has yet to play a road game, which diminishes their 5-0 start, and Oklahoma State just doesn't seem as good as Nebraska and Oklahoma. This thing will likely sort itself out over the next 3 weeks, as Nebraska plays Texas, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in succession, Oklahoma gets Missouri next week, and Oklahoma State follows up Nebraska with a game at 4-1 Kansas State. It should be a fun couple of weeks, but there won't be quite so many unbeaten Big 12 schools.
Big 12 week 7 picks - Kansas State over Kansas, Missouri over Texas A&M, Nebraska over Texas, Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, Baylor over Colorado, Oklahoma over Iowa State
Week 7 outlook - The Wildcats and Daniel Thomas should run all over Kansas on Thursday night. I expect K-State to win by at least 14 points. Missouri finally gets a road game, but they can't afford to be looking past A&M to Oklahoma and Nebraska. I think Blaine Gabbert does enough to keep the Aggies at bay. It is tough to pick Texas A&M when Jerrod Johnson insists on turning the ball over so much. Oklahoma should end their streak of playing close games with a thumping of the Cyclones in Norman. Baylor needs to shore up the defense to be able to go into the thin air of Colorado and beat the Buffs. Dan Hawkins is coaching for his job, and this appears to be one of the better teams he's had, but Robert Griffin will put the Bears on his back and carry them past Colorado. Oklahoma State is a tough team to pick, because this will likely be a close game with the Red Raiders. Tech finally started putting up some points against Baylor last week, and this one could be a shootout. OSU has shown the ability to win those games against Troy and Texas A&M, and they haven't been held short of 38 points yet. I think Brandon Weeden and Kendall Hunter keep the Cowpokes unblemished headed into their big clash with Nebraska next week. The Big 12 game of the week is between Nebraska and Texas in Lincoln. This would be a huge step for the Huskers in their search for a national title berth. Texas hasn't shown a good running game against anyone so far, and Nebraska isn't the team to turn that around against. If Texas can find a way to bottle up Taylor Martinez's option game and can make him throw the ball, they can hang around in this game. I expect this game to be won by the Nebraska blackshirt defense, and I don't expect a lot of points. Nebraska will not do to Texas what UCLA did, but they don't have to. They just have to win.
Big Ten -
Things are starting to get interesting at the top of the Big Ten. Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State remained unbeaten in conference play this past weekend, with Michigan State being very impressive in doing so. The Spartans went into Ann Arbor, into "The Big House," and dismantled Denard Robinson and the Wolverines. The 3-headed backfield monster that the Spartans employ struck in a big way as Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper all found paydirt, with both Bell and Baker doing so from long distance. The Michigan defense wasn't supposed to be good, but MSU found a way to stifle the offense at the right times too, twice intercepting Robinson deep in the red zone, once in the end zone, and held the explosive Wolverine attack to 17 points. Michigan didn't help themselves by throwing more than they ran, and by converting only 2-11 third downs. This week, 4 of the top 5 teams in the Big Ten standings square off against each other with Ohio State going to Madison to battle Wisconsin, and Iowa going to Ann Arbor to try to be the second consecutive team to go into The Big House and take down the Wolverines. The Spartans are definitely thinking Big Ten title at this point in the season, since they are undefeated and don't have to play Ohio State, but they could use a little help from the Badgers this weekend to give them a leg up on the Buckeyes. Penn State and Northwestern all but eliminated themselves from contention last week with embarrassing losses.
Big Ten week 7 picks - Indiana over Arkansas State, Michigan State over Illinois, Purdue over Minnesota, Iowa over Michigan, Wisconsin over Ohio State
Week 7 outlook - The Hoosiers should win easily. Michigan State should be able to handle Illinois, but the Illini have played pretty well the last two weeks. However, if they can bottle up Denard and the Wolverines, I don't expect Nate Scheelhaase, Mikel Leshoure and the Illini offense to do to the Spartans what they did to Penn State. Minnesota has gotten pretty good at finding ways to lose games, and I expect more of the same in West Lafayette as Tim Brewster's seat gets a little hotter. Iowa should have a similar gameplan against the Wolverines as Michigan State, but they really need to do a good job early in the game defensively. They have a potent running game led by Adam Robinson, but they do not have an offense that is good at playing from behind. Michigan moved the ball aginst MSU, but they did a great job of giving away scoring chances. If they can cash in on their scoring chances, they can pull the upset against the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to win, but this one could be close. In the Big Ten game of the week, The top-ranked Buckeyes will have their hands full in Madison. It will be hard for Terrelle Pryor to run effectively the way J.J. Watt gets after the quarterback, and the Buckeyes will have to lean on Daniel Herron and Brandon Saine on offense. When the Badgers have the ball, it will be thunder and lightning with John Clay and James White, not to mention tight end Lance Hendricks, who is a load. The atmosphere in Camp Randall Stadium will be rabid, and while Jim Tressel will have the Buckeyes ready for this, I still think the Badgers win a slugfest that is more their style than OSU's.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 got a little topsy-turvy in week 6. UCLA was routed by California after looking very good the previous few weeks. Washington followed up a huge upset win over USC with a crushing loss to Arizona State. USC followed up their upset loss by nearly stunning Stanford Saturday night. Unbeaten Arizona, meanwhile, went out and got dismantled by Ryan Katz and the Oregon State Beavers' passing attack in their first loss. Katz threw for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns in the game. The only Pac-10 team to do what they were supposed to was Oregon, who beat Wazzu by 20, but that was still less than people expected them to win by. Injuries to quarterback Darron Thomas and halfback Kenjon Barner slowed down the offense a little. Oregon and Stanford are still sitting pretty in this league, but this conference has been anything but predictable so far.
Pac-10 week 7 picks - Oregon State over Washington, Arizona over Washington State, USC over California
Week 7 outlook - Washington seems to do its worst work in Seattle, and Oregon State's only losses are to Boise and TCU. Katz is starting to show better decision-making and accuracy to go along with his cannon arm. Locker cannot win games by himself for the Huskies, so it's not too difficult to pick the Beavers to win this one. The Arizona pick requires little explanation. Eleven blind guys with one hand tied behind their backs might be able to beat Washington State, and Arizona has no blind or one-armed men. It should be an easy win. USC and Cal should be a toss-up. Not so long ago, this was the marquee Pac-10 game of the year. Aaron Rodgers and Cal taking on Matt Leinart and the Trojans. The Golden Bears very nearly pulled the upset a couple times. Now, it is merely an undercard. Both teams still want this one bad, and Cal seems to have found some offensive success last week, and USC looked pretty good in losing to Stanford. With all of that said, we've seen good USC more often than we've seen good Cal, and with the game in Pasadena, that's enough of an edge to pick the Trojans to win.
SEC -
The mighty kings of the SEC have fallen. I'm not just talking about Alabama, but Florida as well. The Gators lost back-to-back SEC games for the first time since September 29th and October 6th, 2007. It was the first time Florida and Alabama lost in the same weekend since September 29th, 2007, and it was the first game Alabama has lost other than a bowl game or SEC title game since November 27th, 2007. It has clearly been a while since these two programs were not dominating the SEC. Through six weeks, only LSU and Auburn remain undefeated and both have had their fair share of close calls. To make things more interesting, Auburn has 4-1 Arkansas coming to town this week. Florida's loss opens the door for South Carolina in the SEC East. The head-to-head meeting between the Gamecocks and Gators in Gainesville should determine the division winner if the Gators can avoid upsets against Mississippi State and Georgia. Alabama's loss makes the SEC West wide open. LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn can all now dream of an SEC title, but one of them has to take down the Tide to make it a reality. Arkansas is the only one who has already lost to Alabama, and they have to prove they can consistently win on the road to stay in contention. A trip to Auburn is a great place to start.
SEC week 7 picks - Georgia over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Arkansas, South Carolina over Kentucky, Florida over Mississippi State, LSU over McNeese State, Alabama over Ole Miss
Week 7 outlook - LSU likely won't need a miracle to defeat McNeese State. Alabama has an opponent that they should be able to take out some frustration over their loss on. Masoli and the Rebels are starting to piece things together, but Bama is just too good for them. Florida also will come out angry, but they need to be careful. Steve Sarkisian has had a lot of success against his old team USC since moving north to UW. It's safe to say that like Sarkisian, former Florida offensive coordinator and current Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen migh have a good grasp of what his old team will try to do. If Florida isn't prepared here, they could have a close one on their hands. Georgia seems to be straightened out with AJ Green back on the field, and another win over Vanderbilt should happen. South Carolina needs to not let up against Kentucky, who has played very well against some good teams, or they could hand control of the division back to Florida. The big game this week is between Auburn and Arkansas. The Razorbacks have one of the best passing attacks in the country, but I still don't totally trust Ryan Mallett on the road with the game on the line. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has done everything he can do to will Auburn to their undefeated start. His toughness, and a better Auburn defense than Arkansas defense will be keys to a Tiger win at home.
Best of the Rest -
TCU and Boise State continue to keep on rolling with blowout wins. TCU hasn't given up a point in their last two games. Utah steamrolled Iowa State, and Nevada and Air Force were easy winners as well to keep the big matchups in tact for the BCS busters. Southern Miss was upended by East Carolina by one point in a shootout to open up the C-USA race once again. ECU, UCF, Houston, and SMU are all undefeated in league play, and it's tough to guess which will come out on top. Nothern Illinois placed themselves in the driver's seat in the MAC with a win over Temple, but a rematch in the conference title game is a possibility.
Other week 7 picks - TCU over BYU, Boise State over San Jose State, Notre Dame over Western Michigan, Nevada over Hawaii, Air Force over San Diego State, Central Michigan over Miami OH, Ball State over Eastern Michigan, Temple over Bowling Green, Ohio over Akron, UNLV over Colorado State, Houston over Rice, Northern Illinois over Buffalo, Navy over SMU, UTEP over UAB, Louisiana Tech over Idaho, Utah over Wyoming, Western Kentucky over UL Monroe, Tulane over Tulsa, Toledo over Kent St., Troy over UL Lafayette, FIU over North Texas, Fresno State over New Mexico State
Week 7 outlook - BYU will likely score a few points against TCU, but the Horned Frogs should win easily, as should Boise State and Utah. Temple and NIU should win easily to stay atop the MAC heap. Air Force will have a challenge with SDSU, who can score in bunches. Nevada will have to do a good job against the pass, as they go into Honolulu to take on Hawaii. A win is crucial, but Hawaii could be tough.
Conference power rankings -
1. SEC - Things are not as good as they were a week ago, but the cream of the Pac-10 struggled this week as well.
2. Big Ten - The toughness of the top Big Ten teams shows in their consistency. Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State are all as tough as they come.
3. Pac-10 - Too much inconsistency at the top as Arizona goes down and Stanford gets a scare, but Oregon still the scariest team around.
4. Big 12 - Moves back ahead of the ACC as their 4 unbeatens trump the upper crust of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
5. ACC - Miami loss hurts, but Florida State and North Carolina take big steps forward this week
6. Mountain West - Big 3 of TCU, Utah, and Air Force seem to get better each week.
7. WAC - Boise and Nevada are still the key here, but Fresno and Hawaii continue to be solid as well
8. Conference USA - There has simply been more consistency here than in the Big East, despite less talent.
9. Big East - If WVU and Cincy continue to win, and Pitt starts to find its legs, they can start to climb the list
10. MAC - The strong play of Northern Illinois gives the league some credibility
11. Sun Belt - Only Troy seems worthy of a possible bowl game
My Top 25 -
1. Oregon (prev. 2)
2. Ohio State (3)
3. TCU (4)
4. Boise State (5)
5. Nebraska (6)
6. Oklahoma (7)
7. Auburn (9)
8. Alabama (1)
9. Iowa (10)
10. Utah (11)
11. LSU (12)
12. Michigan State (15)
13. Arkansas (18)
14. South Carolina (20)
15. Stanford (13)
16. Wisconsin (21)
17. Arizona (8)
18. Nevada (19)
19. Oklahoma State (22)
20. Florida State (UNR)
21. Florida (14)
22. Air Force (25)
23. Missouri (UNR)
24. North Carolina State (UNR)
25. Michigan (17)
Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (16), Kansas State (23), and Northwestern (24)
ACC -
Every time the ACC seems to be taking a step forward, one of their big teams takes an embarrassing loss. It happened when the Seminoles were routed by Oklahoma, when Kansas topped Georgia Tech, when James Madison bested Virginia Tech, and now league favorite Miami gets pasted by the same Seminoles that couldn't finish closer than 30 behind the Sooners. The vaunted Canes defense was absolutely rocked by FSU running backs Jermaine Thomas and Chris Thompson, who combined for 236 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and Thomas added another score receiving. The 'Noles kept Jacory Harris in check by not allowing the big throws downfield that Miami has used to pick apart other opponents. Around the rest of the ACC, Virginia lost to Georgia Tech, Wake Forest fell to Navy, Virginia Tech rattled off their fourth straight win, this time over Central Michigan, and NC St. bounced back from a tough loss to Va. Tech by beating up on Boston College, 44-17, showing off a more vintage Russell Wilson performance. In another big ACC game this week, North Carolina further buried Clemson in the conference race with a tough 21-16 win over the Tigers. They put the game away by milking 5 minutes off the clock with their 5-point lead, and gave the ball back to Clemson with only 13 seconds remaining. As their suspensions become more defined, the Tar Heels seem to be gaining confidence and focus on the field with their young team. While Virginia Tech and Miami seem more stocked with talent, UNC could be a pesky team in the Coastal divission that just won't go away. In the Atlantic, Clemson's 0-2 ACC start makes it seem more and more likely that the winner of the FSU-NC St. game will win the division.
ACC week 7 picks - Florida State over Boston College, North Carolina St. over East Carolina, Clemson over Maryland, Miami over Dukc, Georgia Tech over Middle Tennessee St., Virginia Tech over Wake Forest, North Carolina over Virginia
Week 7 outlook - There really aren't a whole lot of tough calls on the ACC slate this week, as none of the top teams play each other. FSU should continue to roll and Miami should bounce back in grand fashion over the Dukies. Georgia Tech is hard to rely on, but c'mon, they have to be better than MTSU. Clemson needs to avoid coming out flat after losing tough games to Auburn, Miami, and North Carolina in their last 3 contests, but they should be able to take Maryland down. If there was one game I could be wrong on, it is UNC-Virginia. Just as I start to trust in North Carolina as a strong team, I have to keep in mind that they are a very young team, one that may overlook the less than imposing Caaliers on the schedule. I doubt Butch Davis will let that happen, but that could be an interesting game if the Tar Heels don't put in full effort from the opening kick.
Big East -
As another week passes, it becomes clear that no one wants to stand up and take control of the Big Least. UConn looks great one week with new quarterback Cody Endres, then can't beat a Rutgers team that was starting freshman quarterback Chas Dodd thanks to an injury to starter Tom Savage. Dodd looked great in the game, but UConn struggled with their own passing game and clutch defense late in the game, surrendering 10 points in the final 4 minutes to lose this one. Wst Virginia and Cincinnati crushed their opponents last Saturday, but UNLV and Miami OH hardly qualify as quality wins. The margins were still impressive though. Pittsburgh came up short again, this time against Notre Dame after falling behind 17-3 by the half. Syracuse stunned South Florida in Tampa, matching their conference win total of each of the past four seasons at one. The big difference is that they are 1-0 this year, not 1-6. It is a surprise, but in the Big East, anything can happen. Louisville also made a statement last saturday by blanking a not-so-good Memphis team, 56-0. West Virginia and Cincy still appear to be the class of the league, with Cincy bouncing back from a slow start and WVU only having one defeat in their fairly weak schedule, and their head-to-head matchup should determine who gets a BCS bid.
Big East week 7 picks - West Virginia over South Florida, Cincinnati over Louisville, Pittsburgh over Syracuse, Rutgers over Army
Week 7 outlook - West Virginia has been the best team in the league so far, and South Florida has underperformed. It's hard to see the Bulls going into Morgantown and upending the Mountaineers, even if B.J. Daniels plays out of his mind. Cincy is finding their stride under new coach Butch Jones at just the right time as they get a Louisville team that is coming off easily its best game of the season. I think Collaros and the Bearcats go into Louisville and pick up the road win, but this could be a close one if the Cardinals continue to play the way they did against Memphis. Syracuse is off to a 4-1 overall start, their best since 1999, but the competition really hasn't been anything to mention, while Pitt has been out losing to Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame. I think Pitt finally breaks through and finds a win. their run game has been getting better as their offensive line gels, and Tino Sunseri looks like a real quarterback with the pressure eased off him by the ground game. I like Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to both find the end zone and Pitt to win by 3 touchdowns or more. Rutgers might get tested by Army, but if Chas Dodd is still under center, this offense will be tough for the Cadets to stop and I think the Scarlet Knights pick up the home victory.
Big 12 -
For the last few weeks I have touted this as a down year for the Big 12, but through 6 weeks of the season, there are still four undefeated Big 12 squads while no other league boasts more than two. Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State just keep on winning. While only one team can finish unbeaten in the league at the end of the season, a Big 12 title game between undefeated Nebraska and undefeated Oklahoma seems very plausible. Missouri has yet to play a road game, which diminishes their 5-0 start, and Oklahoma State just doesn't seem as good as Nebraska and Oklahoma. This thing will likely sort itself out over the next 3 weeks, as Nebraska plays Texas, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in succession, Oklahoma gets Missouri next week, and Oklahoma State follows up Nebraska with a game at 4-1 Kansas State. It should be a fun couple of weeks, but there won't be quite so many unbeaten Big 12 schools.
Big 12 week 7 picks - Kansas State over Kansas, Missouri over Texas A&M, Nebraska over Texas, Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, Baylor over Colorado, Oklahoma over Iowa State
Week 7 outlook - The Wildcats and Daniel Thomas should run all over Kansas on Thursday night. I expect K-State to win by at least 14 points. Missouri finally gets a road game, but they can't afford to be looking past A&M to Oklahoma and Nebraska. I think Blaine Gabbert does enough to keep the Aggies at bay. It is tough to pick Texas A&M when Jerrod Johnson insists on turning the ball over so much. Oklahoma should end their streak of playing close games with a thumping of the Cyclones in Norman. Baylor needs to shore up the defense to be able to go into the thin air of Colorado and beat the Buffs. Dan Hawkins is coaching for his job, and this appears to be one of the better teams he's had, but Robert Griffin will put the Bears on his back and carry them past Colorado. Oklahoma State is a tough team to pick, because this will likely be a close game with the Red Raiders. Tech finally started putting up some points against Baylor last week, and this one could be a shootout. OSU has shown the ability to win those games against Troy and Texas A&M, and they haven't been held short of 38 points yet. I think Brandon Weeden and Kendall Hunter keep the Cowpokes unblemished headed into their big clash with Nebraska next week. The Big 12 game of the week is between Nebraska and Texas in Lincoln. This would be a huge step for the Huskers in their search for a national title berth. Texas hasn't shown a good running game against anyone so far, and Nebraska isn't the team to turn that around against. If Texas can find a way to bottle up Taylor Martinez's option game and can make him throw the ball, they can hang around in this game. I expect this game to be won by the Nebraska blackshirt defense, and I don't expect a lot of points. Nebraska will not do to Texas what UCLA did, but they don't have to. They just have to win.
Big Ten -
Things are starting to get interesting at the top of the Big Ten. Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State remained unbeaten in conference play this past weekend, with Michigan State being very impressive in doing so. The Spartans went into Ann Arbor, into "The Big House," and dismantled Denard Robinson and the Wolverines. The 3-headed backfield monster that the Spartans employ struck in a big way as Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper all found paydirt, with both Bell and Baker doing so from long distance. The Michigan defense wasn't supposed to be good, but MSU found a way to stifle the offense at the right times too, twice intercepting Robinson deep in the red zone, once in the end zone, and held the explosive Wolverine attack to 17 points. Michigan didn't help themselves by throwing more than they ran, and by converting only 2-11 third downs. This week, 4 of the top 5 teams in the Big Ten standings square off against each other with Ohio State going to Madison to battle Wisconsin, and Iowa going to Ann Arbor to try to be the second consecutive team to go into The Big House and take down the Wolverines. The Spartans are definitely thinking Big Ten title at this point in the season, since they are undefeated and don't have to play Ohio State, but they could use a little help from the Badgers this weekend to give them a leg up on the Buckeyes. Penn State and Northwestern all but eliminated themselves from contention last week with embarrassing losses.
Big Ten week 7 picks - Indiana over Arkansas State, Michigan State over Illinois, Purdue over Minnesota, Iowa over Michigan, Wisconsin over Ohio State
Week 7 outlook - The Hoosiers should win easily. Michigan State should be able to handle Illinois, but the Illini have played pretty well the last two weeks. However, if they can bottle up Denard and the Wolverines, I don't expect Nate Scheelhaase, Mikel Leshoure and the Illini offense to do to the Spartans what they did to Penn State. Minnesota has gotten pretty good at finding ways to lose games, and I expect more of the same in West Lafayette as Tim Brewster's seat gets a little hotter. Iowa should have a similar gameplan against the Wolverines as Michigan State, but they really need to do a good job early in the game defensively. They have a potent running game led by Adam Robinson, but they do not have an offense that is good at playing from behind. Michigan moved the ball aginst MSU, but they did a great job of giving away scoring chances. If they can cash in on their scoring chances, they can pull the upset against the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to win, but this one could be close. In the Big Ten game of the week, The top-ranked Buckeyes will have their hands full in Madison. It will be hard for Terrelle Pryor to run effectively the way J.J. Watt gets after the quarterback, and the Buckeyes will have to lean on Daniel Herron and Brandon Saine on offense. When the Badgers have the ball, it will be thunder and lightning with John Clay and James White, not to mention tight end Lance Hendricks, who is a load. The atmosphere in Camp Randall Stadium will be rabid, and while Jim Tressel will have the Buckeyes ready for this, I still think the Badgers win a slugfest that is more their style than OSU's.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 got a little topsy-turvy in week 6. UCLA was routed by California after looking very good the previous few weeks. Washington followed up a huge upset win over USC with a crushing loss to Arizona State. USC followed up their upset loss by nearly stunning Stanford Saturday night. Unbeaten Arizona, meanwhile, went out and got dismantled by Ryan Katz and the Oregon State Beavers' passing attack in their first loss. Katz threw for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns in the game. The only Pac-10 team to do what they were supposed to was Oregon, who beat Wazzu by 20, but that was still less than people expected them to win by. Injuries to quarterback Darron Thomas and halfback Kenjon Barner slowed down the offense a little. Oregon and Stanford are still sitting pretty in this league, but this conference has been anything but predictable so far.
Pac-10 week 7 picks - Oregon State over Washington, Arizona over Washington State, USC over California
Week 7 outlook - Washington seems to do its worst work in Seattle, and Oregon State's only losses are to Boise and TCU. Katz is starting to show better decision-making and accuracy to go along with his cannon arm. Locker cannot win games by himself for the Huskies, so it's not too difficult to pick the Beavers to win this one. The Arizona pick requires little explanation. Eleven blind guys with one hand tied behind their backs might be able to beat Washington State, and Arizona has no blind or one-armed men. It should be an easy win. USC and Cal should be a toss-up. Not so long ago, this was the marquee Pac-10 game of the year. Aaron Rodgers and Cal taking on Matt Leinart and the Trojans. The Golden Bears very nearly pulled the upset a couple times. Now, it is merely an undercard. Both teams still want this one bad, and Cal seems to have found some offensive success last week, and USC looked pretty good in losing to Stanford. With all of that said, we've seen good USC more often than we've seen good Cal, and with the game in Pasadena, that's enough of an edge to pick the Trojans to win.
SEC -
The mighty kings of the SEC have fallen. I'm not just talking about Alabama, but Florida as well. The Gators lost back-to-back SEC games for the first time since September 29th and October 6th, 2007. It was the first time Florida and Alabama lost in the same weekend since September 29th, 2007, and it was the first game Alabama has lost other than a bowl game or SEC title game since November 27th, 2007. It has clearly been a while since these two programs were not dominating the SEC. Through six weeks, only LSU and Auburn remain undefeated and both have had their fair share of close calls. To make things more interesting, Auburn has 4-1 Arkansas coming to town this week. Florida's loss opens the door for South Carolina in the SEC East. The head-to-head meeting between the Gamecocks and Gators in Gainesville should determine the division winner if the Gators can avoid upsets against Mississippi State and Georgia. Alabama's loss makes the SEC West wide open. LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn can all now dream of an SEC title, but one of them has to take down the Tide to make it a reality. Arkansas is the only one who has already lost to Alabama, and they have to prove they can consistently win on the road to stay in contention. A trip to Auburn is a great place to start.
SEC week 7 picks - Georgia over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Arkansas, South Carolina over Kentucky, Florida over Mississippi State, LSU over McNeese State, Alabama over Ole Miss
Week 7 outlook - LSU likely won't need a miracle to defeat McNeese State. Alabama has an opponent that they should be able to take out some frustration over their loss on. Masoli and the Rebels are starting to piece things together, but Bama is just too good for them. Florida also will come out angry, but they need to be careful. Steve Sarkisian has had a lot of success against his old team USC since moving north to UW. It's safe to say that like Sarkisian, former Florida offensive coordinator and current Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen migh have a good grasp of what his old team will try to do. If Florida isn't prepared here, they could have a close one on their hands. Georgia seems to be straightened out with AJ Green back on the field, and another win over Vanderbilt should happen. South Carolina needs to not let up against Kentucky, who has played very well against some good teams, or they could hand control of the division back to Florida. The big game this week is between Auburn and Arkansas. The Razorbacks have one of the best passing attacks in the country, but I still don't totally trust Ryan Mallett on the road with the game on the line. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has done everything he can do to will Auburn to their undefeated start. His toughness, and a better Auburn defense than Arkansas defense will be keys to a Tiger win at home.
Best of the Rest -
TCU and Boise State continue to keep on rolling with blowout wins. TCU hasn't given up a point in their last two games. Utah steamrolled Iowa State, and Nevada and Air Force were easy winners as well to keep the big matchups in tact for the BCS busters. Southern Miss was upended by East Carolina by one point in a shootout to open up the C-USA race once again. ECU, UCF, Houston, and SMU are all undefeated in league play, and it's tough to guess which will come out on top. Nothern Illinois placed themselves in the driver's seat in the MAC with a win over Temple, but a rematch in the conference title game is a possibility.
Other week 7 picks - TCU over BYU, Boise State over San Jose State, Notre Dame over Western Michigan, Nevada over Hawaii, Air Force over San Diego State, Central Michigan over Miami OH, Ball State over Eastern Michigan, Temple over Bowling Green, Ohio over Akron, UNLV over Colorado State, Houston over Rice, Northern Illinois over Buffalo, Navy over SMU, UTEP over UAB, Louisiana Tech over Idaho, Utah over Wyoming, Western Kentucky over UL Monroe, Tulane over Tulsa, Toledo over Kent St., Troy over UL Lafayette, FIU over North Texas, Fresno State over New Mexico State
Week 7 outlook - BYU will likely score a few points against TCU, but the Horned Frogs should win easily, as should Boise State and Utah. Temple and NIU should win easily to stay atop the MAC heap. Air Force will have a challenge with SDSU, who can score in bunches. Nevada will have to do a good job against the pass, as they go into Honolulu to take on Hawaii. A win is crucial, but Hawaii could be tough.
Conference power rankings -
1. SEC - Things are not as good as they were a week ago, but the cream of the Pac-10 struggled this week as well.
2. Big Ten - The toughness of the top Big Ten teams shows in their consistency. Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State are all as tough as they come.
3. Pac-10 - Too much inconsistency at the top as Arizona goes down and Stanford gets a scare, but Oregon still the scariest team around.
4. Big 12 - Moves back ahead of the ACC as their 4 unbeatens trump the upper crust of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
5. ACC - Miami loss hurts, but Florida State and North Carolina take big steps forward this week
6. Mountain West - Big 3 of TCU, Utah, and Air Force seem to get better each week.
7. WAC - Boise and Nevada are still the key here, but Fresno and Hawaii continue to be solid as well
8. Conference USA - There has simply been more consistency here than in the Big East, despite less talent.
9. Big East - If WVU and Cincy continue to win, and Pitt starts to find its legs, they can start to climb the list
10. MAC - The strong play of Northern Illinois gives the league some credibility
11. Sun Belt - Only Troy seems worthy of a possible bowl game
My Top 25 -
1. Oregon (prev. 2)
2. Ohio State (3)
3. TCU (4)
4. Boise State (5)
5. Nebraska (6)
6. Oklahoma (7)
7. Auburn (9)
8. Alabama (1)
9. Iowa (10)
10. Utah (11)
11. LSU (12)
12. Michigan State (15)
13. Arkansas (18)
14. South Carolina (20)
15. Stanford (13)
16. Wisconsin (21)
17. Arizona (8)
18. Nevada (19)
19. Oklahoma State (22)
20. Florida State (UNR)
21. Florida (14)
22. Air Force (25)
23. Missouri (UNR)
24. North Carolina State (UNR)
25. Michigan (17)
Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (16), Kansas State (23), and Northwestern (24)
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
What we've Learned in College Football: Week 5
Another exciting week is in the books in an intense college football season, and this week, it was about survival. Several unbeaten teams had to survive near collapses to stay unbeaten and keep their big-time bowl hopes alive. For starters, the LSU Tigers were given a gift from the gods in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Jordan Jefferson cotinued his poor play at quarterback and was eventually benched for Jarrett Lee, who promptly threw the longest pass of the season for the Tigers. But, in the closing seconds, trailing by 4 points, head coach Les Miles reinserted Jefferson into the game with 30 seconds remaining to run a predictable option play. Miles has a history of bad clock management, and this game added to that history. After Tennessee stopped that obvious option run a yard shy of the end zone, the Tigers suddenly didn't know what to do next. The clock was ticking, they were out of timeouts, and they didn't seem to know what the next play was. By the time they were lined up, only 5 seconds were left and the center snapped the ball to Jefferson, who was looking the other way, with 3 ticks left. The ball flew by Jefferson and the seconds ticked away. A jubilant Tennessee team rushed onto the field in celebration, until a booth review of the final play was called for, and it was determined that there were somehow 13 Vols on the field on the final snap. Tennessee scored on a toss play after the penalty with no time left on the clock, and survived the biggest scare of the weekend. They weren't the only survival experts though. Ohio State survived an injury to Terrelle Pryor and a more game Illinois team than they expected. Their survival moment was when the Illini elected to kick a field goal down by seven with only 4 minutes left in the game. The Buckeyes marched down the field on their ensuing drive to score again and put the game away at 24-13. The fighting Denard Robinsons survived a very stiff challenge from the Indiana Hoosiers, in a game that could have been a bit easier if they hadn't fumbled the ball at the Indiana 1-yard line already up a touchdown. Instead, the fumble turned the game into two teams trading touchdowns until the final moments, as the Hoosiers knotted the game up at 28 with only a minute to go. Denard Robinson again took these Wolverines on his shoulders and hit a long pass to Junior Hemingway, and then ran in for the winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The Wolverines played very poorly on the defensive side of the ball, but they survived. The Oklahoma Sooners seemed to have a nice easy victory coming in the Red River Shooout with Texas, but they struggled to finish this one off. After the Sooners held a two score lead for much of the game, the Longhorns finally closed to 28-20 with about a minute and a half to play. They still had all three timeouts left, so the Sooners needed at least one first down to seal it. A short run on first down got the first timeout used, but on second down, Landry Jones was hit in the backfield and fumbled inside his own 15-yard line. Luckily, Jones was able to swat the ball out of bounds before something catastrophic happened. A run up the gut by DeMarco Murray got the second UT timeout used, but the Longhorns would have about a minute to score a TD and two-point conversion to tie it up. Luckily for the Sooners once again, Texas punt returner Aaron Williams failed to call a fair catch in traffic and muffed the punt to give the ball back to OU. The Sooners made some mistakes, but they survived. They have been making a habit of this survival thing with only 1 victory by more than 8 points, and two that were secured by muffed punts. Oregon survived their first true test of the year after falling into a 21-3 hole after the opening quarter by simply dominating the rest of the way. They outscored the Cardinal 48-10 the rest of the way. One team lacking that survival instinct on Saturday was the North Carolina State Wolfpack. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, the Pack struggled with turnovers and let Virginia Tech back into the game. Russell Wilson threw his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th interceptions of the year, including one late in the 4th quarter in a 4-point hole that really ended their survival efforts. With so many teams scraping by this week, it was hard to miss the dominance of Alabama in their game against Florida. The 31-6 drubbing leaves little doubt as to who the best team in the SEC is. Let's take a look at who the rest of the country fared in week 5.
ACC -
This week was bittersweet for the ACC. Virginia Tech continued to establish themselves as back in the picture for an ACC title, but in doing so, knocked off the last remaining unbeaten in the ACC. North Carolina continued to rebound from their slow start with another nice non-conference victory. Georgia Tech needed a big 4th quarter rally to beat the lowly Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. Tech needs to find some consistency. Miami and Florida State remained unbeaten in league play to keep their matchup with each other next week a big one. Clemson still has some life left, but their division title hopes are a little slimmer after a loss to Miami.
ACC week 6 picks - Virginia Tech over Central Michigan, NC State over Boston College, Georgia Tech over Virginia, Navy over Wake Forest, Clemson over North Carolina, Miami over Florida State
Week 6 Outlook - The Techs and Navy should win easily, but Georgia Tech must avoid an early hole against Virginia. Boston College has a solid enough defense to compete in this league, but Shinskie and the offense just have been bad. Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack will find a way to put up enough points to beat the Eagles this week. North Carolina has been impressive in getting their legs back under them the last two games, but Clemson is itching for a big win, and this would qualify. Andre Ellington got loose running the ball against Miami last weekend, and with many defensive studs still sitting out for the Tar Heels, I expect he will do it again and help Clemson to a hard fought win. The ACC matchup of the week is definitely the game between the Hurricanes and Seminoles. Jacory Harris continued to throw interceptions last week, but he also continues to hit big throws downfield to Leonard Hankerson. If the Seminoles try to bottle the big play up, Harris is a good enough qb to pick apart the underneath coverage. The 'Noles have been playing better each week, but Miami is easily the best opponent they have faced since Oklahoma, and possibly all year. I like the Canes by 2 scores.
Big East -
Another tough week in the Big East saw Rutgers fall to Tulane at home, and Louisville struggle a little with Arkansas State. On the plus side for the conference, UConn finally started playing good football and Cody Endres was surprisingly good as a balanced Husky offense dropped 40 on Vanderbilt. It was good to see UConn lean on Jordan Todman, who had a big game in the win. Pittsburgh also finally got the ground game going. Dion Lewis was sidelined again with an injury, but the running game still got going in a big way as backup Ray Graham ran for 277 yards and 3 scores against FIU. While the Panthers are winless, they have been competitive against decent competition. Pitt has to feel a little better about where they stand now in the Big East, but they need to continue to have success on offense to have a shot at the league title.
Big East Week 6 picks - UConn over Rutgers, South Forida over Syracuse, Louisville over Memphis, Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over UNLV, Cincinnati over Miami OH
Week 6 Outlook - Louisville hasn't been very impressive thus far, and may struggle with Memphis, but I expect a win. West Virginia should make quick work of UNLV. Cincy should do the same with Miami of Ohio. Notre Dame struggled to shut down Stanford's running game a couple weeks ago, but Pitt's running game isn't nearly as good as that one. I know Pitt was good last weekend, but I need to see it again before I really believe in the Panthers. Notre Dame should get back to .500. B.J. Daniels and South Florida shouldn't need the homefield advantage to beat the 'Cuse, but they have it anyway. It's easy to be 3-1 when your wins are over Akron, Colgate, and Maine, as Syracuse's wins are. The best matchup of the week is between UConn and Rutgers. Clearly Rutgers is struggling at this point, and UConn appears to be hitting their stride. The switch to Cody Endres at qb seems to be a spark for this offense, contrary to what I predicted a week ago, and I think they continue to roll this week with a win over Rutgers.
Big 12 -
ACC -
This week was bittersweet for the ACC. Virginia Tech continued to establish themselves as back in the picture for an ACC title, but in doing so, knocked off the last remaining unbeaten in the ACC. North Carolina continued to rebound from their slow start with another nice non-conference victory. Georgia Tech needed a big 4th quarter rally to beat the lowly Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. Tech needs to find some consistency. Miami and Florida State remained unbeaten in league play to keep their matchup with each other next week a big one. Clemson still has some life left, but their division title hopes are a little slimmer after a loss to Miami.
ACC week 6 picks - Virginia Tech over Central Michigan, NC State over Boston College, Georgia Tech over Virginia, Navy over Wake Forest, Clemson over North Carolina, Miami over Florida State
Week 6 Outlook - The Techs and Navy should win easily, but Georgia Tech must avoid an early hole against Virginia. Boston College has a solid enough defense to compete in this league, but Shinskie and the offense just have been bad. Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack will find a way to put up enough points to beat the Eagles this week. North Carolina has been impressive in getting their legs back under them the last two games, but Clemson is itching for a big win, and this would qualify. Andre Ellington got loose running the ball against Miami last weekend, and with many defensive studs still sitting out for the Tar Heels, I expect he will do it again and help Clemson to a hard fought win. The ACC matchup of the week is definitely the game between the Hurricanes and Seminoles. Jacory Harris continued to throw interceptions last week, but he also continues to hit big throws downfield to Leonard Hankerson. If the Seminoles try to bottle the big play up, Harris is a good enough qb to pick apart the underneath coverage. The 'Noles have been playing better each week, but Miami is easily the best opponent they have faced since Oklahoma, and possibly all year. I like the Canes by 2 scores.
Big East -
Another tough week in the Big East saw Rutgers fall to Tulane at home, and Louisville struggle a little with Arkansas State. On the plus side for the conference, UConn finally started playing good football and Cody Endres was surprisingly good as a balanced Husky offense dropped 40 on Vanderbilt. It was good to see UConn lean on Jordan Todman, who had a big game in the win. Pittsburgh also finally got the ground game going. Dion Lewis was sidelined again with an injury, but the running game still got going in a big way as backup Ray Graham ran for 277 yards and 3 scores against FIU. While the Panthers are winless, they have been competitive against decent competition. Pitt has to feel a little better about where they stand now in the Big East, but they need to continue to have success on offense to have a shot at the league title.
Big East Week 6 picks - UConn over Rutgers, South Forida over Syracuse, Louisville over Memphis, Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over UNLV, Cincinnati over Miami OH
Week 6 Outlook - Louisville hasn't been very impressive thus far, and may struggle with Memphis, but I expect a win. West Virginia should make quick work of UNLV. Cincy should do the same with Miami of Ohio. Notre Dame struggled to shut down Stanford's running game a couple weeks ago, but Pitt's running game isn't nearly as good as that one. I know Pitt was good last weekend, but I need to see it again before I really believe in the Panthers. Notre Dame should get back to .500. B.J. Daniels and South Florida shouldn't need the homefield advantage to beat the 'Cuse, but they have it anyway. It's easy to be 3-1 when your wins are over Akron, Colgate, and Maine, as Syracuse's wins are. The best matchup of the week is between UConn and Rutgers. Clearly Rutgers is struggling at this point, and UConn appears to be hitting their stride. The switch to Cody Endres at qb seems to be a spark for this offense, contrary to what I predicted a week ago, and I think they continue to roll this week with a win over Rutgers.
Big 12 -
The Red River rivalry game has given Oklahoma a clear leg up in the Big 12 South, but there are a couple threats still lurking on the schedule. Both Oklahoma State and Baylor remained unbeaten in league play this past weekend, with the Cowboys taking down fellow unbeaten Texas A&M, and Baylor absolutely destroying the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor can be scary when they get going, and Oklahoma really hasn't overwhelmed many of its opponents. In the North, 4 teams are still unblemished in league play, with 3 still perfect overall, but Nebraska and Kansas State seem a cut above the others. They meet this week to establish the clear number one in the division. Colorado is still 0-0 in Big 12 play, but has been solid in the nonconference with wins over Hawaii, Georgia, and rival Colorado St. They likely won't have the same success in league play, but Dan Hawkins is starting to get himself off the hot seat. Missouri is also undefeated, but with their first 5 games all at home, what do we really know about Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers? We'll see when they play some road games.
Big 12 Week 6 Picks - Nebraska over Kansas St., Oklahoma St. over UL Lafayette, Baylor over Texas Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Utah over Iowa State, Missouri over Colorado
Week 6 outlook - Nebraska should win big on Thursday night. Kansas State has been strong on the defensive side of the ball, but the Husker blackshirt defense has been back under Bo Pelini, and the Wildcats will have to be creative offensively to get Daniel Thomas going against the strong front. The crowd in Manhattan will be fired up, but Taylor Martinez handled a hostile environment pretty well in Seattle, and I think the Nebraska offense does enough on the road to win by 10 points. Oklahoma State should win in a walk on Friday. If Texas A&M struggled to stop Brandon Weeden and Oklahoma State's passing attack, Ryan Mallett will look like Peyton Manning to the Aggies. If Jerrod Johnson can cut down on the turnovers that plagued him against the Cowboys, the Aggies can stay in the game, but in the end, the Razorbacks' passing attack will be too much to stop. Baylor should dispatch of Texas Tech by multiple scores. Robert Griffin and the Bears offense has been very dynamic, while the Texas Tech offense has looked anemic in recent weeks. The Red Raiders are going down at home in Lubbock. Mizzou and Colorado should be an interesting game this week. The Tigers are at home yet again, but the Buffs are building some early season momentum. I like the Tigers to win this game, but nothing would surprise me here.
Big Ten -
Last week was a big one in the midwest. The Big Ten pack is starting to separate a little bit, and the cream that is rising to the top so far is Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State. Iowa is unbeaten in conference play, and the others are unbeaten overall. While Michigan and Ohio State were surviving last weekend, Michigan State was handling Wisconsin in an impressive upset win, and Iowa was dismantling the Penn State Nittany Lions 24-3. The next couple weeks should tell a lot more about where these teams stand as Michigan and Michigan State will play this weekend, and Iowa and Michigan next weekend. Wisconsin and Northwestern are still flies in the ointment for the top 4, but Northwestern has struggled against some fairly weak opposition, and some losses are coming in Big Ten play. Wisconsin has been solid, but they really haven't dominated up front on offense the way you expect a Wisconsin team to. Penn State is quickly fading to the background in the Big Ten race, and things should really heat up throughout October.
Big Ten Week 6 picks - Ohio State over Indiana, Wisconsin over Minnesota, Illinois over Penn State, Northwestern over Purdue, Michigan State over Michigan
Week 6 Outlook - The Buckeyes should have Terrelle Pryor back at full strength this week, and he should dismantle Indiana's very porous defense in an easy OSU win. Minnesota isn't a very good passing team, and it's tough to run on the Badgers' defensive front with J.J. Watt wreaking havoc all over the field. I like Wisconsin by 2 touchdowns. Hopefully Illinois has learned from their mistakes of playing conservative late in an upset bid. I really question Rob Bolden and this Penn State offense, and Illinois showed that they can play with a very good team last week. I really believe that Illinois can go into Happy Valley and shock the Nittany Lions. PSU was not impressive at home against Temple, and if they are equally unimpressive against Illinois, they will go down. Northwestern will make it interesting as always against Purdue, but I think they come up with another victory and head into their showdown with Michigan St. in two weeks undefeated. Should be a great home crowd in Evanston for the undefeated Wildcats. The Big Ten game of the week is between the Spartans and the Wolverines. It doesn't take an expert in college football to tell you that Denard Robinson is good. It also doesn't take an expert to tell you that the Michigan defense is not. Anyone who watched the Indiana game saw Ben Chappell finding WIDE open receivers all day. Every time there was a third down, Chappell would calmly hit his target with no one around him. This cannot happen in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Robinson and the Wolverine offense will be electric as always, but the key to this game will be Michigan's defense. They need to put tighter coverage on the receivers, especially on third down, and be sure in their tackles or Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker will carve them up on the ground as well. It will be a trying day for the Wolverines if they try to blitz Kirk Cousins. They struggle to cover the pass in a base defense, and Cousins handles the blitz well. Things could get ugly if Cousins is throwing into less coverage due to the blitz. I think MSU's balanced offense is enough to pull off the victory in a good game. Also, keep an eye on MSU linebacker Greg Jones, who will likely spy Denard Robinson for much of the game. If he has success containing Denard early in the game, look for the Spartans to win big.
Pac-10 -
The biggest game on the Pac-10 schedule is now in the past, and Oregon is now the clear-cut favorite to win the conference. While tests from Arizona, USC, and UCLA still lie ahead, the Ducks will likely be double-digit favorites in each of those games after the pasting they gave to Stanford in Eugene. Stanford should be happy that this game was so early on the schedule, because if they win out as well, an at-large BCS berth is theirs for the taking. UCLA won again to stay relevant in the conference, and Oregon State remained unscathed in Pac-10 play. The biggest surprise of week 5 came in Washington and Jake Locker upsetting the USC Trojans in Pasadena. People had been giving the Trojans some credit in the polls despite a weak early schedule and a lack of dominance in those games, but they were brought back to earth with a crushing loss at the hands of a Washington team that had been mediocre so far. This is a big blow for Lane Kiffin's squad, who already are not allowed to play in a bowl game this season.
Pac-10 Week 6 Picks - UCLA over California, Oregon over Washington State, Arizona over Oregon State, Stanford over USC, Washington over Arizona State
Week 6 outlook - Oregon might be able to drop 80 on the Cougars. Stanford will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the frustrating loss to Oregon, and USC will feel that wrath. Stanford will win by at least 2 touchdowns. Washington is gaining momentum and will play with a lot of confidence after beating USC on the road. Arizona State will be hoping for a letdown game out of the Huskies, but likely will not receive one. Arizona State will try to pressure Locker, but he is just too athletic to be trapped in the pocket. I think UW rides the wave to another victory and a 2-0 Pac-10 start. Arizona takes on a strong Oregon State team this week, but I think Nick Foles and the Wildcat offense will be better this week than they were against Cal. The Rodgers brothers will be a handful as always, but I think Ryan Katz is due for a pick or two, probably at inopportune times. I like the Wildcats by about a touchdown. UCLA and Cal should be an exciting game, but I think the win streak continues for the Bruins. Jonathan Franklin has been fantastic runnning the ball, and while this isn't the same offense Nevada runs, it is still the option game a little bit, and Cal gave up over 50 points to Nevada's option offense.
SEC -
The SEC looks a little more decided now than it was a week ago. I still believe Florida is the best team in the SEC East, and really just has to make sure to beat South Carolina to seal up the division title. Kentucky has shown that they aren't on that level yet, and Georgia and Tennessee are in too deep of holes already to climb out of. Vanderbilt is also bad, which leaves South Carolina as the only real threat. The West is much tighter, but who can beat the Crimson Tide? Bama is obviously the lead horse in the race, with LSU and Auburn nipping at their heels. I don't see LSU as a real threat unless a switch to Jarrett Lee is permanent and he plays fantastically. Auburn has been fun to watch, but Alabama and Arkansas won't let them win if they fall behind early as they like to do. The Razorbacks are likely playing for second, but have been very solid so far. Mississippi St. has been improved, but not enough to compete in the west, and Ole Miss is a wild card. Jeremiah Masoli is finally looking comfortable in this offense and the results are starting to show on the field. They won't be a real factor in the title race, but they could be great at playing spoiler along the way.
SEC week 6 picks - Georgia over Tennessee, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt over Eastern Michigan, Alabama over South Carolina, Florida over LSU, Auburn over Kentucky, Mississippi State over Houston
Week 6 Outlook - Georgia and Tennessee are desperate for a win, and I think Tennessee will have a hard time recovering psychologically from the loss to LSU, and Georgia was much better offensively with AJ Green back. The game is between the hedges at Sanford Stadium, and that's enough of an edge for the Bulldogs. Arkansas should win if Mallett plays well. Vanderbilt should easily beat EMU, and Mississippi St. will be too much for Houston with no Case Keenum. Auburn should come into this game ready for Kentucky after an easy one last week, and if they can avoid falling behind early, I see a 2 touchdown win for Cam Newton and the Tigers. Much like Stanford, Florida will be playing angry against LSU, and LSU can't possibly keep being as lucky as they were last week. They plan to use both Jefferson and Lee at qb, and it will make the offese even more inconsistent. Florida is a very opportunistic defensive team, and LSU may have a solid defense, but I think Florida will clean up the turnovers that cost them against the Tide, and the Gators win by 10 at home. Alabama needs to not let up after two huge wins over Arkansas and Florida, and going to Columbia, they have to be ready for a tough game. They can beat South Carolina by a big margin if they play well, but it will depend on what the defense does to Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina will not be very good against this Bama running game, and if they can bottle up Lattimore like Auburn did, the Tide will roll again. The National Title really looks to be their final destination this season.
Best of the Rest -
Boise rolled again, this time over New Mexico 59-0. TCU joined the shutout party with a 27-0 win over Colorado State. Temple beat Army by a touchdown to go to 4-1, and they did it without Bernard Pierce. The NIU Huskies jumped into the MAC race with a 50-14 drubbing of Akron. Nevada and Utah stayed unbeaten to give Boise and TCU better competition, and Fresno St. won also to go to 4-1. Conference USA has been heating up with Southern Miss, UTEP, and SMU all looking good early in the season.
Other Week 6 picks - Boise State over Toledo, TCU over Wyoming, Utah over Iowa State, SMU over Tulsa, Nevada over San Jose State, Utep over Rice, Fresno State over Hawaii, Southern Miss over East Carolina, New Mexico over New Mexico State, San Diego State over BYU, Utah State over Louisiana Tech, Tulane over Army, Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, Air Force over Colorado State, Temple over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan over Ball State
Conference Power Rankings
1. SEC - losing its stranglehold on the top spot, but still there at no. 1
2. Pac-10 - Still holding steady at 2, but the Big Ten is close behind.
3. Big Ten - MSU, U of M, and Northwestern all unbeaten still helps league strength
4. ACC - The ACC has topped the Big 12 for now, as the Big 12 is having a down year and the ACC has bounced back from a slow start.
5. Big 12 - Only Nebraska and Oklahoma stick out so far.
6. Mountain West - TCU, Air Force, and Utah are all top 25 teams
7. WAC - Boise carries the flag well, but there are other solid teams
8. Big East - UConn finally righted the ship, but Rutgers fall to Tulane negates progress
9. Conference USA - If Big Esst continues to struggle, we may see a switch of 8 and 9
10. Mid American - Temple and NIU seem like the only respectable teams
11. Sun Belt - Less respectability here.
My Top 25
1. Alabama (prev. 1)
2. Oregon (3)
3. Ohio State (2)
4. TCU (4)
5. Boise State (5)
6. Nebraska (8)
7. Oklahoma (9)
8. Arizona (10)
9. Auburn (11)
10. Iowa (13)
11. Utah (14)
12. LSU (12)
13. Stanford (7)
14. Florida (6)
15. Michigan State (17)
16. Miami FL (18)
17. Michigan (16)
18. Arkansas (20)
19. Nevada (22)
20. South Carolina (19)
21. Wisconsin (15)
22. Oklahoma State (UNR)
23. Kansas State (UNR)
24. Northwestern (25)
25. Air Force (UNR)
Dropped from rankings - Texas (21), USC (23), and Texas A&M (24)
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