Welcome to rivalry week. Everything from the past eleven weeks of football has been leading to this Thanksgiving weekend. There are so many big games this weekend, it will hard to keep up with them all. The national title contenders will all be tested except TCU, several division and conference titles will be decided, such as the Big Ten, The ACC Atlantic, and both divisions of the Big 12, not to mention all of the fun rivalry trophries that will be won. Rivalries are what college football is all about. The pageantry and tradition of games like Michigan-Ohio State, Texas-Texas A&M, and Florida-Florida State keep the fan bases pumped. There are all kinds of cool rivalry names like the "Iron Bowl," the "Bedlam" game, The "Border War," and the "Backyard Brawl," as well as some not so cool names like the"Egg Bowl." The best rivalry game title of all might be "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate," the game between Georgia and Georgia Tech. But nothing tops the goofy trophies that these schools decide to play for in these rivalry games. Here's a list of some trophies that will be up for grabs this weekend:
The Land Grant Trophy - Michigan State vs. Penn State
The Old Oaken Bucket - Purdue vs. Indiana
The Golden Boot - Arkansas vs. LSU
The Beehive Boot - Utah vs. BYU
The Victory Bell - Duke vs. North Carolina
The Governor's Cup - Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Paul Bunyan's Axe - Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Hardee's Trophy - Clemson vs. South Carolina
The Bedlam Bell - Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
The Commonwealth Cup - Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
The Indian War Drum - Kansas vs. Missouri
The Jeweled Shillelagh - Notre Dame vs. USC
The Lone Star Showdown Trophy - Texas vs. Texas A&M
The Floyd of Rosedale - Iowa vs. Minnesota
Clearly some creativity has gone into coming up with these trophies, but my personal favorite is the Floyd of Rosedale. The Gophers and Hawkeyes play for a bronze pig that was named after Minnesota governor Floyd Olson in 1935, because he bet a prize hog against the governor of Iowa on a Hawkeye-Gopher football game and won. The hog was named Floyd for the governor, and the farm in Iowa that he came from was Rosedale. While this isn't the only strange trophy for football teams to play for, it certainly is a memorable one. Beyond all of the gimmicks of rivalry week, these games simply mean more to the players. Everyone gets a little more amped up when the hated rival comes to town. No underdog feels like they can't pull the upset. Jim Tressel said it best at his introductory press conference as head coach at Ohio State, when he boldly announced that it would be 310 days until the Buckeyes beat Michigan, and OSU hasn't lost that game since. Everyone knows how much the rivalry games mean. It can make a season to pull off that one big game against the rival. While not every game will be for a conference crown or a spot in the national title game, every single rivalry game will have a championship sort of feel to it, where nobody wants to lose.
A look around the country this week:
ACC -
It's official. Virginia Tech has won the coastal division and will play in the conference title game in Charlotte. Not too many expected that after a rough start in which the Hokies lost to Boise State and James Madison in a 6 day stretch. Most people believed the loss to JMU was a hangover from the Boise lost, as many experts have jokingly stated that the Hokies lost to Boise State twice. But that isn't what's important. The Hokies have rallied since the 0-2 start with 9 straight wins and likely a tenth over Virginia this week. Tyrod Taylor has really developed into the dual-threat quarterback that he was expected to be, and Ryan Williams has been good on the ground. As always, the Hokie defense has been the toughest unit in the conference and makes this team really tough to beat. North Carolina and Miami were the other contenders in the coastal division, but both had flaws that were too much to overcome and win the division. For North Carolina, it was the lack of depth and too few elite players caused by their roster being decimated by injuries and eligibility concerns. For Miami, it was a quarterback who struggled with turnovers, and then a shaky transition to backup Stephen Morris when Harris was hurt. As far as who Va Tech will play in Charlotte, that is still undecided. Maryland was the last team knocked out of the race with a loss to the Seminoles on Saturday. Now it's down to two and the Terps get a chance to play spoiler against NC State. If the Wolfpack beats Maryland, they will take the division crown and get to Charlotte, but if they lose, it will be the Seminoles making that trip. It's been a fun race for much of the season, and I expect Maryland and NC State to play a very entertaining game that keeps this race fun in its final week.
ACC week 13 picks - Virginia Tech over Virginia, North Carolina over Duke, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, North Carolina State over Maryland, Boston College over Syracuse, Florida State over Florida, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson, Miami over South Florida
Week 13 outlook - There are very few sure thing picks this week in the ACC. Virginia Tech and North Carolina should be close to being locks against Virginia and Duke, but with rivalry games anything is possible. Georgia's offense has been explosive, and Georgia Tech's has not. The Yellow Jackets have struggled at times to get after the quarterback, and if Aaron Murray has time to let his receivers get open, he should have a great game in a victory over a GT team that doesn't do well if they have to keep up in a shootout. Clemson has played some great games this season with impressive wins over NC State and Maryland, and a close loss to Auburn. They will need to play that well again if they want to beat the Gamecocks. South Carolina is playing better than they ever have under Steve Spurrier, and the biggest reason is offensive balance. Before this season, no South Carolina running back had gone over 1,000 rushing yards with Steve Spurrier as his coach, and only Cory Boyd broke 700 yards. Marcus Lattimore has given the team that dimension as he already has the school record for TDs in a season. Alshon Jeffery has been pretty explosive as a receiver, and as long as South Carolina continues to mix things up on offense, they should be able to take down Clemson in the "Battle for the Palmetto State." Boston College and Syracuse will do battle in a not so fan-friendly low scoring, smashmouth affair. The Eagles may not be winning pretty, but that defense has been fantastic. Syracuse has started to show some cracks the last few weeks, and Boston College will do just enough to win again. Vanderbilt and Wake Forest play in a game with little fanfare this week. Both have been miserable so far, but The Commodores have been miserable against better competition. Wake Forest's defense really doesn't make it hard on anyone to score points, and I expect that to include Vanderbilt in a sloppy win for the SEC's worst team. Florida State and Florida is always a close game, and Florida has been very good at times this season, but they really lack consistency. Every time they seem to have found a new wrinkle or x-factor for their offense, they get blown out the next week. Trey Burton went for 5 touchdowns against Kentucky early in the season as a wildcat qb, then 'Bama blew them out the following week. It was Jordan Reed lighting up the Vandy secondary two weeks ago, only to not really get used against South Carolina in a devastating loss. The Seminoles haven't been inconsistent. They had one bad game against a very good Oklahoma team, but other than that, they have showed up every week. They lost to NC State and UNC, but both were close games that the 'Noles could have won. I think that consistency is what carries FSU to another hard fought win while they wait to see the winner of the Md-NC State game. Miami and South Florida square off in an in-state matchup Saturday, and Jacory Harris might be back for the 'Canes. Stephen Morris does have a big arm and has played fairly well the past few games, but I would expect Harris to start if he can go. USF has been playing very well in the Big East over the past few weeks, but no one in the Big East is as good as Miami. B.J. Daniels will struggle against a very good Miami defense, and Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry will be tough to slow down. If not for Justin Blackmon, Hankerson would likely be the frontrunner for the Biletnikoff award for the nation's best receiver. That talent will be on full display as the 'Canes win by two touchdowns. In the big ACC game of the week, I think Maryland's woes against the top of the league continue in a loss to North Carolina State. The Terps are 7-4 overall, but they haven't exactly beat top competition. Their best wins all year are over Navy and Boston College, while they have lost to WVU, Florida State, Clemson and Miami. A lot of people are giving them a good chance to win this game, but I don't think it happens. I've believed for much of the year that the Wolfpack and Russell Wilson would be playing in Charlotte, and I still think that happens. I expect NC State to win by a touchdown.
Big East -
The Big East race is still a jumbled mess at this point, but it finally seems as though we can start to rule some teams out. Pittsburgh has managed to get to 4-1 in conference play, virtually eliminating all of the 3-loss teams in the league barring some collapse by everyone else. That pretty much leaves Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn as the only teams with a good chance of securing the league title and the automatic BCS bowl berth that comes with it. While most would agree that Pitt and WVU are the two most talented teams in the conference, it doesn't change the fact that UConn beat both of them head-to-head. Pitt is in the driver's seat with the one loss, but if they lose the Backyard Brawl to the Mountaineers this weekend, it will be UConn who has the most control in the Big East race. The Huskies face a Cincinnati team this week that has struggled to stop anyone, and then get the real test against South Florida next weekend. Wins in both of those games could leave the Huskies in the BCS, despite having 4 overall losses. While it's harrd to argue that any team from the Big East belongs in a BCS game, the rules aren't going to change between now and the end of the season.
Big East week 13 picks - Connecticut over Cincinnati, Miami over South Florida, Louisville over Rutgers, Boston College over Syracuse, West Virginia over Pittsburgh
Week 13 outlook - Miami should finish the season strong as their key offensive players get healthy and they should beat the Bulls. BC is on an absolute roll of late, and it's the defense that has been the driving force. Even without running back Montel Harris, that defense isn't going to let up this week, and the Eagles win a slugfest. UConn should be able to take care of Cincinnati. Randy Edsall has his Huskies playing very well the past few weeks with wins over the top 3 teams in the conference standings not named Connecticut. Cincy is not one of the top teams, and the Bearcat defense has allowed 30 or more points in every conference game but one, and a Louisville missed field goal is the only reason it wasn't all of them. I expect UConn to get to 30 as well, and handle the Bearcats by 10 points. Louisville needs a win over Rutgers to get bowl eligible, and the NCAA needs some of those 5-win teams to get number 6 this week. There are currently 64 bowl eligible teams in the FBS, and there are 70 bowl spots to be filled. Rutgers has really struggled so far this season, and although the Cardinals haven't exactly been special at 5-6, they have been competitive in every single game. Only Pitt beat Louisville by more than 8 points, and only Cincy and Oregon State have topped 30 points in a game against them. Rutgers, meanwhile, gave up 41 to Pitt and a whopping 69 to Cincinnati just a week ago. The Scarlet Knights have to feel a little demoralized after that game, and the powerful Louisville running game of Bilal Powell should be enough for the Cardinals to take down Rutgers this Friday and earn a bowl bid. The Backyard Brawl has a lot riding on it this week. Should the Panthers win, they are just a win over Cincy away from as BCS bowl game, but if West Virginia wins, The league becomes a three-way tie at the top as long as UConn doesn't fall to the Bearcats. Pitt would quickly become the long shot with their two losses being to the teams they are tied with. For the Panthers, this game is their season. They have really come along with a great running game led by Dion Lewis and Ray Graham, but West Virginia's defense has been like a brick wall at times this season. The Mountaineers are 4th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 13 points per game. Only Marshall has gone over 20 with 21 in an overtime loss to WVU. The Panthers haven't been quite as stingy, allowing almost 20 per game. You know the Mountaineers will keep Pitt from putting up a lot of points, but this game will come down to how many they can score themselves. Bill Stewart has to get a little more creative with the playcalling this week to get a couple of early scores. If WVU gets an early lead, it could be lights out for the Panthers, not just Friday, but for their season. I think West Virginia pulls out the win in a game where neither team is likely to get to 20 points, and it will live up the Backyard Brawl moniker.
Big 12 -
The final week in the Big 12 schedule is here, and neither division has been officially decided. Nebraska should feel pretty confident in the north, but after last week's game, and the injuries that Taylor Martinez has been playing through, beating Colorado this week is hardly a certainty. Bo Pelini seems convinced the refs are out to get him, and with the penalty yardage Big Red piled up last week, it's kind of tough to argue against him. The team set a school record for penalty yardage in a game, and some of the calls were questionable, and a couple were downright bad. If a few of those calls go their way, they might not have suffered the 9-6 loss to the Aggies. Missouri is their only competition for the north crown, and the Tigers are very unlikely to trip up against Kansas, so the pressure is on the 'Huskers to beat Colorado. The south title comes down to the bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys win the game, they would win the south outright, but with a loss and a Texas A&M win over Texas, it would become a 3-way tie to be decided by BCS rankings. If that were to happen, the Sooners seem like the favorites sitting 4 spots ahead of the Aggies, but if A&M is impressive against Texas, and OU wins sloppy, they just might get enough credit to move up. If the voters realize that the BCS rankings will determine the winner of a division, they might move their votes around to reward a team they feel is more deserving. A&M would have won 6 games in a row with a win over Texas, including a 14-point win over Oklahoma earlier this month, and if the division comes down to a vote between the Sooners and Aggies, that head-to-head win will no doubt carry weight with the voters. Regardless of how the weekend plays out, it has been a crazy year in the Big 12 with the team that was predicted last in the south (Oklahoma State) leading the division with just one game to play while the favorite to start the year (Texas) needs to beat A&M just to finish at .500 overall.
Big 12 week 13 picks - Texas A&M over Texas, Nebraska over Colorado, Missouri over Kansas, Kansas State over North Texas, Texas Tech over Houston, Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
Week 13 outlook - Missouri should roll over Kansas to keep the pressure on Nebraska this week. The Tigers can score in bunches, but few people realize how good the defense has been for Mizzou. Missouri is 7th in the country in scoring defense with just 16 points allowed per game, and Kansas isn't exactly explosive. The Tigers roll in this one easily. Kansas State closes out the year on a high note as they take on the terrible North Texas Mean Green. Daniel Thomas will not be very easy to stop in this one, and the Wildcats should win by 3 or 4 touchdowns without much trouble. Texas Tech needs to beat Houston to finish the season with a winning record, and since Houston has dropped three straight and is still playing without Case Keenum, I don't think the Red Raiders will struggle much on senior day in Lubbock. The Cougars will unfortunately avoid getting bowl eligible with the loss. Texas comes into the game with Texas A&M as losers of 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8, but they did take it to FAU a week ago. The Lone Star State Shootout will not be as easy a game for the Longhorns. Texas has really lacked much offensive firepower all season, and after shutting down Nebraska's high powered attack last weekend, Texas A&M should be looking forward to the sad Longhorn offense coming up next. Tannehill and the offense will do just enough to keep Texas at arm's length all day, especially since Cyrus Gray has really emerged during this winning streak. Gray has run for over 100 yards in every game of the 5-game streak, and if Texas sells out to stop him, Tannehill will make them pay. I like Texas A&M by 7 or 10 points. That brings us to the bedlam game. Both of these teams have really been explosive on offense and both have been led by a trio of skill players. For OU, its qb Landry Jones, hb DeMarco Murray, and wr Ryan Broyles. For the Pokes, the leaders have been Brandon Weeden, Kendall Hunter, and of course the unstoppable Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma likely has a slightly better defense than the Cowboys, but no matter what defenses OSU has faced, Blackmon, Weeden and Hunter just keep throwing up gaudy numbers. This is only the fourth time in 104 meetings in this rivalry that the Cowboys enter as the higher ranked team, and deservedly so. I expect Mike Gundy to play that up this week as he tries to ready his team for this game. Oklahoma State's extremely balanced offense should be enough to take down the Sooners, especially in Stillwater. The fan base will be as loud as they have ever been for the Cowboys, and it will undoubtedly be a little bit much for OU to deal with. This game will be a shootout, and I think the Sooners go down by a touchdown.
Big Ten -
Well we've said for weeks that each of the three teams at the top need one of the others to slip up to give them as sure conference title and BCS berth, but those stumbling blocks left in the way are just about gone. If this thing winds up in a tie with all three teams, it comes down the the BCS standings, which are awfully close at this point in the season. All of the ribbing that Bret Bielema has taken over running up the score certainly won't bother him if his Badgers are sitting highest in the rankings on selection Sunday. Wisconsin currently sits one spot ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS standings, and for anyone who doesn't think that his point padding ways are helping his team at all, consider that Wisconsin was three spots behind Ohio State in the initial BCS rankings just one day after handing the Bucks their first loss of the season. They have made up that ground with style points. With the teams sitting at 7th, 8th, and 10th in the rankings entering the weekend, each one of the teams must make a statement to get some votes for themselves, and then let the lobbying and begging for votes begin. If any of the top three are upset, this becomes a moot point, but things will feel a little unsettled if all three teams are 11-1. There isn't a whole lot more excitement this week as all the teams have their bowl situations settled with Illinois picking up win number 6 over Northwestern at Wrigley last week. The Big Ten this week is all about rivalry games, and the goofy trophies that go with them.
Big Ten week 13 picks - Ohio State over Michigan, Michigan State over Penn State, Wisconsin over Northwestern, Iowa over Minnesota, Purdue over Indiana
Week 13 outlook - Iowa should be able to win the Floyd of Rosedale trophy this season with an easy win over the Gophers. Minnesota needs to play with a fire in them to stay competitive, but the ground game with Adam Robinson and the aerial assaut with Stanzi, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt is just too much firepower for Minnesota to stop. Hawkeyes win easy. Purdue showed some fight last week against the Spartans, especially since they got quarterback Rob Henry back from injury. The team has been much better when Henry is in there with an upset over Northwestern, an easy win over Minnesota and a near win against Michigan State. Indiana is not a very good team, and I think the Old Oaken Bucket spends another year in West Lafayette. Wisconsin gets a Northwestern team that is just not the same without Dan Persa at the helm. The Wildcats also struggle to defend the run, as evidenced by Mikel LeShoure's 330 yard day against them at Wrigley. The Badgers will be chomping at the bit to run at that Wildcat front, even if John Clay doesn't go. Wisconsin only ran one pass play the entire second half last week against Michigan and still managed to score 24 points after the break en route to rolling up over 350 total rushing yards. Northwestern had better be ready for a lot of James White and Montee Ball this week. Evan Watkins, Persa's backup, should get accustomed to seeing J.J. Watt in the backfield all day when Northwestern has the ball, and I expect a little more criticism of Bret Beilema's point gouging ways. Ohio State and Michigan play in what many feel is the best rivalry in college football. The rivalry hasn't been quite as fun of late for Michigan fans, losers of 6 strainght in the series. A win this year would spoil the Buckeyes season and certainly ensure Rich Rod's job for another season. Michigan would love nothing more, despite the fact that the players are saying that it's just the next game. There's always some bad blood in this one, and this year will be no different. Ohio State will very likely come out on top in this one with Michigan's defense ranking near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every category. Ohio State has been a pretty decent offensive team, and that defense really only needs to make a few stops to feel like they will win the game. The emotion of the rivalry might help the Wolverines hang around a little bit longer, but the talent of the Buckeyes likely carries them to a two score victory. Michigan State gets PSU with more than just the Land Grant Trophy at stake this time. The Nittany Lions had been very good the past few weeks, except for the second half against the OSU Buckeyes last week. Michigan State hasn't been quite as sharp, struggling against several opponents the last few weeks including a bad loss to Iowa. MSU is due for a strong game. I expect the Spartans to really keep Evan Royster bottled up and do some things to fluster Matt McGloin in the passing game. The Spartan offense will get off to a quicker start by leaning on the running game with Baker, Bell, and Caper, and letting Kirk Cousins use the play-action game to pick apart Penn State. I think the Spartans win by 2 touchdowns and really keep this Big Ten race as tough to decide as ever.
Pac-10 -
There is very little to report in the Pac-10 this week. Oregon had a bye week while Stanford rolled over Cal. Both teams just keep on winning at the top of the conference, but the rest of the league has really started to look bad. With USC ineligible for postseason play, it is actually possible that only three Pac-10 teams get bowl eligible despite 6 bowl slots to fill. Making it even more complicated, if Stanford were to get a BCS bowl berth along with Oregon, that would make it only one more team eligible for a bowl game with 5 spots left to fill. That team would be Arizona. There are a couple hopefuls who could break that up for the conference by getting to 6 wins, but there are no locks. California gets Washington this week, and with Brock Mansion still at quarterback, it's no guarantee that Cal gets the job done against Locker and the Huskies. Oregon State is also just one win away, but still has Stanford and Oregon left on the schedule. Neither of those games are likely wins for a Beaver team that lost to UCLA and Washington State. The Huskies and Bruins also remain alive in the bowl hunt at 4-6, but both need to win out to get there. U-Dub still has Cal and Wazzu on the slate, while UCLA has to beat Arizona State and USC. All in all, this conference is ugly after the top 3. Traditional power conferences just don't have the same power they once had, and the Pac-10 helps to show that, just like the Big East.
Pac-10 week 13 picks - Arizona State over UCLA, Oregon over Arizona, California over Washington, USC over Notre Dame, Stanford over Oregon State
Week 13 outlook - Cal is at home this week, and coming off a great performance against Oregon, and playing to earn a bowl bid. I think the Golden Bears find a way, but I don't expect a rout as long as Kevin Riley is not playing. Jake Locker will keep the Huskies around for much of the game, but I think they come up short against Cal. UCLA hasn't been very good without Kevin Prince as it is, and now backup Richard Brehaut is banged up. That won't make the offense better. ASU needs this win for a little bit of pride, and I expect the Sun Devils to get it in a 10 point win. USC got throttled by Oregon State last week, but that was just the game they always struggle with. I feel like they will get back to playing solid, balanced football this week as Tommy Rees finally has a rough outing for Notre Dame. The Irish have been better the past two weeks, but I think USC gets up for the rivalry game and extends their winning streak to an all-time high 8 in a row over the Irish. If Matt Barkley doesn't play, the Irish probably pull off the win, but I think he will take the field and help keep the Jeweled Shillelagh in California. Stanford takes on a dangerous Oregon State team in Palo Alto this weekend. The Beavers may only be 5-5, but they have played well in some big games including a rout of USC last Saturday. Jaquizz Rodgers is a big-time playmaker for the Beavers and will have to be a big part of the gameplan if the Beavers want to pull the upset. Stanford is going to be much too strong for the Beavers though. As long as Stanford wins this game, they are very likely to get a spot in a BCS game as an at-large team, and there is no way Jim Harbaugh would let his team overlook this opponent with that much at stake. The Cardinal are very physical up front on both sides of the ball, and they will push the Beavers around and win by multiple touchdowns. Oregon must win again this week to stay in the hunt for the national title, and Arizona is the toughest opponent left on the schedule. The Ducks were held to just 15 points two weeks ago in Berkeley, and a lot of football pundits have talked about the Bears having created the blueprint for stopping the Ducks' blur offense. They loaded the box against the run and played a lot of man-to-man defense and didn't really switch things up when the Ducks ran the no-huddle. It worked fairly well, but the Ducks will make adjustments this week. Darron Thomas needs to be more crisp with his passes when his receivers beat man-to-man coverage, and he needs to be more willing to run the ball if the defense focuses on LaMichael James. If Thomas has success early, the Wildcats will likely adjust the defense, which will open up the things that Oregon normally likes to do in the running game. With this game at home in Autzen Stadium instead of on the road at Cal, I expect the Duck offense to bounce back and roll up the points again in beating Arizona by a couple of scores.
SEC -
This week in the SEC is all about the Iron Bowl. Sure, LSU has a big game to stay in contention for a BCS game against Arkansas, and Tennessee has a big rivalry game against Kentucky with a shot to become the 9th SEC team eligible for a bowl game, and Georgia could also get there as a possible 10th, but it's still all about the Iron Bowl. Both division titles have been decided, so this week is all about the national title picture. Auburn needs to beat Alabama to feel safe for now. There has been a lot of talk that the Tigers could lose to Auburn and still get back to the title game with a win over South Carolina in the SEC championship, but I wouldn't want to leave it up to the voters if I had a loss and there were 3 unbeaten teams left. Alabama enters the game as the favorite despite the worse overall record, but it's Auburn with the most on the line.
SEC week 13 picks - Georgia over Georgia Tech, Kentucky over Tennessee, Mississippi State over Ole Miss, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, LSU over Arkansas, Alabama over Auburn
Week 13 outlook - I've already gone over a few of these games in the other conferences, so I won't spend much time on those. The Georgia offense will be enough to beat GT, Florida State's consistency carries them past an up and down Gator team, and Vanderbilt is slightly less miserable than Wake Forest and should beat the Deacs. South Carolina's balance on offense is the key difference in this year's team that allows them to sustain success and beat a very solid Clemson team. That leaves us with just the conference games to talk about. Tennessee never loses to Kentucky. Never. In fact, the Vols have beaten the Wildcats 25 consecutive times, the longest active streak in the nation between two teams. Add in the fact that Tennessee has won 3 straight games in very impressive fashion after a 2-6 start to keep bowl hopes alive, and everything points to the Volunteers beating Kentucky again to get to that 6th win and bowl eligibility. With all of that said, I like Kentucky to win this game. Derek Dooley has not been trying to get his players to treat this game like it's bigger than any other they've played, and the problem is that it is indeed bigger. I guarantee Joker Phillips is trying to fire up his players to finally end this streak of losing to the Vols, and to do so in Knoxville would be even better. Tennessee has certainly been susceptible to giving up some points against good offenses, and Kentucky has shown an ability to score with almost 35 points per game. This game will also be a big one for Randall Cobb, who grew up near Knoxville but wasn't offered a scholarship by UT until he had already decided to go to Kentucky. I expect Cobb to show the Vols what they could have had with a monster game, and I expect Rocky Top to run blue in a shattering defeat for Tennessee. The Egg Bowl has a different feel to it this year, as it is the Bullogs of Mississippi State who come in as the favorites and the coaches seem to be taking shots at each other through the media. Ole Miss would like to believe they can win this game, but I really think the Bulldogs need a big win here to cement this season as a huge breakthrough year for the program. Ole Miss has already had a poor season at just 4-7 overall, and while a rivalry win here would be a nice high note to go out on, MSU just needs it more. The Rebel defense is not very good, and I expect Vick Ballard and Chris Relf to establish the run early, and Mississippi State to come out on top in Oxford to finish the year at .500 in SEC play for just the second time since 2000. It would also be the first consecutive Egg Bowl wins for MSU since 1998-99. LSU and Arkansas play in the only SEC game that holds a candle to the Iron Bowl this week. The battle for the Golden Boot should be heated , as both teams feel as though a BCS bowl is not out of reach with a win. The Tigers have had so many near losses and narrow escapes, it's hard to keep track at this point. From Tennessee to Florida to Alabama to Ole Miss, they just keep finding ways to pull out the close games with a smothering defense and gutsy play calling. Arkansas has been a different story. The Razorbacks have an explosive balanced offense as Ryan Mallett has thrown for twice as many yards as the two LSU quarterbacks combined, and top Arkansas running back Knile Davis has more yards on the ground than LSU's leading rusher Stevan Ridley. That's a lot of firepower for any defense to slow down, but LSU should be up to the task. While the numbers show balance for the Hogs O, it really is driven by Mallett and the passing game, and the LSU D ranks fourth in the FBS in fewest passing yards allowed per game. That stat becomes even more intimidating when you realize that Greg Childs is out for the rest of the season and won't be there to catch passes from Mallett. LSU's Patrick Peterson is the best cover corner in the country, and he will likely take Joe Adams out of the game all by himself. That makes it much easier for the rest of the Tiger defense to focus on Knile Davis, D.J. Williams, and Jarius Wright. Mallett doesn't have the athletic ability to make plays with his legs, so it seems unlikely that Arkansas will be able to roll up the offensive numbers they are accustomed to. On the other side of the ball, the Hogs have shown a penchant for giving up some big plays, most notably against Auburn. Arkansas' defense has allowed 20 or more points in all but 4 games this year, and the LSU defense has only allowed 20 or more 4 times. Something has to give in this one, and I always go with a great defense over a great offense. I like LSU in another tight finish. That brings us to the Iron Bowl. This is quite possibly the biggest game left on the schedule until the national title game. Auburn needs this game, but Alabama is downright unbeatable in Tuscaloosa. They don't even struggle at home. Cameron Newton will be every bit the force he's been all year in this game, but Alabama still may be too much. Greg McElroy is a great field general, Julio Jones is a phenom at wideout, and both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson seem fully healthy headed into this game. We've all seen the Auburn defense get torched this year against Arkansas and Georgia, and to a degree against Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They just always seem to have enough offense to overcome those defensive woes. Alabama is not the team to let them get away with that. The pressure will be on Newton to make plays in the passing game against this young Tide secondary because 'Bama will do everything they can to slow down Newton and McCalebb running the ball. Nick Fairley and the Auburn defensive front also must do a decent job of slowing down 'Bama's run game and force McElroy into third and longs, or it will be a long day for them also. The Crimson Tide simply want to keep the Tiger defense on the field as long as possible, and keep Cam Newton watching from the sidelines. If they can pull that off, they will pull off this win at home. I like the Tide by a touchdown in a game for the ages.
Best of the Rest -
Well, I'm running out of reasons to talk about Boise State and TCU since all they can do is continue to dominate and wait for the teams above them to trip up. Boise put a 55-0 thumping on Fresno State last Friday but still sits behind TCU in the BCS standings. This week may change that. The gap has been shrinking over the last few weeks, and the Horned Frogs get a terrible New Mexico team on Saturday while Boise draws no. 19 Nevada who has only lost once all year. Even if both teams win convincingly, Boise may jump TCU due to the bump in strength of schedule. Then it's on someone ahead to fall. Both teams have legitimate arguments for why they belong in the title game, but one that might get the Broncos a leg up is the point that they beat a TCU team with mostly the same players a year ago in the Fiesta Bowl. Don't be surprised to hear Chris Petersen or other people at Boise make mention of that over the next couple weeks if a national title spot is at stake. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, Ohio needs only to beat Kent State this weekend to set up a MAC title game showdown with very impressive Northern Illinois. If the Bobcats lose, it will be the Redhawks of Miami OH who get the east crown. Conference USA has a wild weekend ahead with neither division settled and 5 teams still vying for the league title. The race in the west is simple. SMU will win the division with either a win over East Carolina or a Tulsa loss to Southern Miss. Tulsa must win and see the Mustangs lose to steal the division title away. Over in the east, Central Florida can make things easy by beating a Memphis team that has already lost 10 times. If the Tigers pull the shocker, things could get messy. Both Southern Miss and ECU are still alive here, with both needing help from the other. ECU would actually need Southern Miss to beat Tulsa and beat SMU themselves to create a 3-way tie for the division. With a 4-1 record in the division, the Pirates would own the tiebreaker. Southern Miss needs almost the same scenario, just with an ECU loss to the Mustangs. The Eagles beat UCF and would have the edge in a two team tie with them. I told you it was complicated. Luckily, Central Florida is very unlikely to lose and that would make the other scenarios useless. The only other league left is the Sun Belt, where FIU would seal up the conference title and a bowl bid with a win over Arkansas State this week. The Troy Trojans hold out hope that FIU could lose to both Arkansas State and and MTSU to open the door for them to take the conference, but it seems pretty far-fetched. The Panthers have been very solid in Sun Belt play. A few other things to watch are teams fighting for bowl eligibility. Here are a list of the biggest non-AQ teams that could get there this week: Western Michigan, Houston, Troy, FIU, and Idaho.
Other week 13 picks - Boise State over Nevada, TCU over New Mexico, Ohio over Kent State, Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Central Florida over Memphis, SMU over East Carolina, Southern Miss over Tulsa, Florida International over Arkansas State, Troy over Western Kentucky, Western Michigan over Bowling Green, Fresno State over Idaho, Utah over BYU, San Diego State over UNLV, UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette, Buffalo over Akron, Toledo over Central Michigan, Marshall over Tulane, Hawaii over New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State over Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech over San Jose State, UAB over Rice
Week 13 outlook - Boise-Nevada is the most important game here. The Broncos haven't been tested yet, and I see no reason to believe Nevada will be the team to knock them off. Colin Kaepernick has been tremendous for the Wolf Pack, but Boise State's defense has been lights out against everyone. Kellen Moore and the offense haven't really had to play a fourth quarter in a while, and the Nevada defense is unlikely to change that. This game should be a little closer than the past couple over Hawaii and Fresno, but I still expect the Broncos to win by at least 24 points. TCU will have to win by 50 to keep pace with Boise since their opponent is much weaker than Nevada. But against the lowly New Mexico Lobos, that might be more than just possible, it might be likely. Ohio will not trip this week against a pretty poor Golden Flash team, and they should earn another trip to the MAC title game. In that title game, they will meet Northern Illinois, who will likely be fresh off a blowout win over Eastern Michigan, probably about a 30 point margin of victory. Central Florida will throttle Memphis to take the mystery out of the C-USA East race. ECU and SMU should play in a crazy shootout, as East Carolina has given up 40 or more more points in 3 of their wins as well as all 5 of their losses. SMU's balance on offense will be the difference as the Mustangs will win the west with the victory and set up a conference title game against UCF. Since the SMU game is 4 and a half hours before Tulsa and Southern Miss square off, it will be known by kickoff that the Mustangs clinched the division title. That will take all of the life out of the Golden Hurricane, and USM is still inspired to play well in honor of their teammates wounded in a shooting. I expect USM to win by 2 touchdowns if SMU wins early, and by a field goal or so if the Mustangs lose. FIU should wrap up the Sun Belt against Arkansas State as they have really owned the other teams in conference play. Troy will beat Western Kentucky with ease, but it won't matter for the conference title since FIU will win, but it will get Troy bowl eligible. Western Michigan will get bowl eligible with a win over Bowling Green, but Idaho will fall short of 6 wins against Fresno State, and Houston will do the same against Texas Tech. UL-Monroe will also get win number 6 in a rivalry win over UL-Lafayette, but they need some other teams to lose to make sure they can't be left out of a bowl game. San Diego State should recover nicely from a heartbreaking loss to Utah a week ago with UNLV up next, and Utah is back on track and should beat BYU to get to 10 wins on the year. In the only other game that means something this week, I expect Buffalo to top Akron and keep the Zips as the only winless team in the FBS.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - Half of the conference is ranked and 5 teams still feel like they have a shot at a BCS bowl game. The talent at the top and the depth is incredible. Throw in that both Auburn and LSU feel like they could still win the national title and the SEC is still firmly at the head of the class.
2. Big Ten - The power conference of the midwest is still the next in line with great talent at the top. The depth is thinning a little with Northwestern losing Dan Persa, but there are 8 bowl eligible Big Ten squads.
3. Big 12 - While the Big 12 has lost all hope of a national title contender, Oklahoma State is still a fantastic one-loss team and there are several very good teams including Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
4. ACC - The Pac-10 is certainly better at the top with Oregon and Stanford, but Va Tech provides a legit BCS team while FSU, NC State and Miami provide better depth than the Pac-10 has right now.
5. Pac-10 - When the 4th best possible bowl team in you league is 5-6 Cal, depth is a problem. Things would be better if USC weren't banned from playing in the postseason this year.
6. Mountain West - There are still more quality teams in the Mountain West than the WAC. Fresno and Hawaii don't measure up to SDSU and Air Force.
7. WAC - The WAC is still better than the Big East despite not matching up with the MWC.
8. Big East - West Virginia, UConn, and Pitt are all coming off of wins and all seem better than the top of C-USA right now.
9. Conference-USA - UCF's loss to Southern Miss makes it hard to put this league ahead of a Big East that has had more consistency of late.
10. MAC - Things are settled at the top for the most part, but things are ugly at the bottom.
11. Sun Belt - This really has the feel of an FCS conference. No one is bowl eligible yet, and mathematically, no one has to end up that way.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 11-0 (prev. 1)
2. Oregon - 10-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 10-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 11-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 10-1 (5)
6. Ohio State - 10-1 (6)
7. Stanford - 10-1 (8)
8. LSU - 10-1 (9)
9. Michigan State - 10-1 (10)
10. Oklahoma State - 10-1 (12)
11. Alabama - 9-2 (11)
12. Arkansas - 9-2 (13)
13. Virginia Tech - 9-2 (14)
14. Nebraska - 9-2 (7)
15. Oklahoma - 9-2 (15)
16. South Carolina - 8-3 (19)
17. Texas A&M - 8-3 (21)
18. Misouri - 9-2 (17)
19. Nevada - 10-1 (18)
20. Florida State - 8-3 (24)
21. Northern Illinois - 9-2 (20)
22. Iowa - 7-4 (16)
23. North Carolina State - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Arizona - 7-3 (25)
25. Mississippi State - 7-4 (22)
Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (23)
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
What We've Learned About College Football: Week 11
This wacky college football season is drawing to a close, and although the spectre of a major Cam Newton fallout looms over any results on the field in the national title and Heisman races, that won't stop the kids from going out there and playing the games. Much of the national attention this week will be on the national title chase, and seeing if any of the teams in the hunt slip up. Well, that would be where that attention is focused, if those teams were playing this week. Only Boise State actually takes the field this weekend out of the four remaining undefeateds, and they get to play Friday night with the eyes of the nation on them. I don't expect them to stumble as they have been as consistent as anyone in the country. So, without the drama of undefeated teams on the ropes, as Auburn and Oregon were last weekend, and TCU early in their game as well, the focus will shift to the conference races. There will be plenty of drama in teams jockeying for better bowl position, and in many cases just trying to get bowl eligible. There are colossal games in the races in the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12. For many around the country, it would be a good time to focus on what is taking place on the field, and not think about things happening off of it. That goes for Auburn, who seems to hear more and more details about Cam Newton's father soliciting money from Mississippi State, although there have been no allegations of Auburn actually paying for Newton. It also goes for Southern Miss, who had three of their players shot and seriously injured in an altercation outside of a nightclub in Hattiesburg. Linebacker Martez Smith is paralyzed, Tim Green can't speak after being shot in the neck, , and defensive end Dedrick Jones was shot in the chest. Southern Miss would certainly like for things to get back to normal, but that won't be easy with three of their players absent from the squad. Mississippi State and Rutgers have both dealt with similar difficulties, as Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand was paralyzed in a game this season, and Mississppi State lost Eric Bell to cancer at just 20-years old this season. These tragic and difficult storylines have been everywhere this season, and hopefully there will be some more good on the field to help people move on. One lighter story for this weekend is the return of football to two popular baseball stadiums. The new Yankee Stadium never hosted football before, but will feature the Army-Notre Dame game on Saturday.However Wrigley Field, which hosts Northwestern and Illinois this weekend, was the longtime home of the Chicago Bears. These two games should be fun to watch if only or the novelty of seeing football played in these well-known baseball venues. It'll be fun to see a football get lost in the ivy (just kidding). Let's take a look at the big storylines and matchups around the country:
ACC -
Well the ACC has eliminated two more teams from the running for the conference title game. Clemson's defeat at the hands of Florida State knocks them out in the atlantic, while UNC's loss to Virginia Tech eliminates them from the coastal race. This week's ACC slate will be huge in determining those division winners, and could even see one division clinched. If the Hokies can defeat the Hurricanes, who are still without Jacory Harris, it would seal up their spot in the title game. In the atlantic, Florida State takes on Maryland in an elimination game. If Florida State were to lose this game, they would absolutely be eliminated, even if NC State loses to the Tar Heels this weekend, as they would have lost to both NC State and Maryland. If the Seminoles were to win, it would put the pressure on North Carolina State to win out in order to take the division crown. There are a couple of other games that bear watching this week, as Georgia Tech and Boston College have opportunities to get bowl eligible against Duke and Virginia respectively.
ACC week 12 picks - Boston College over Virginia, North Carolina State over North Carolina, Georgia Tech over Duke, Clemson over Wake Forest, Virginia Tech over Miami, Florida State over Maryland
Week 12 outlook - Boston College has really started to get things together in the second half of the ACC schedule. After losing their first 4 conference games, they have now won three straight over Clemson, Wake Forest, and Duke. Virginia should be the fourth in a row and will get the Eagles bowl eligible. They still aren't likely to roll up the points, but with that defense, they don't have to. Duke travels to Atlanta to take on that Georgia Tech triple option, and defense has been a problem for the Blue Devils so far. That said, the Yellow Jackets have lost three straight games and their quarterback is banged up. Duke will not be a pushover, but this is the last home game for the Tech seniors, and they don't want to go out with a loss. I expect the Yellow Jackets to get to the magic win number of 6 to get a bowl game. The Clemson Tigers also have a shot to get bowl eligible this weekend, and a game with Wake Forest should present little trouble for Dabo Swinney's boys. Wake continues to give up big point totals, and Clemson's defense can be smothering. North Carolina State gets a very tough UNC team this week, and the Wolfpack are in a must-win situation. They need to win this week, and next week against Maryland to lock up a rematch with Virginia Tech for the conference title and the automatic bowl berth. North Carolina has been shorthanded all season by suspensions, and injuries are starting to diminish the roster further. The running back situation is a motley crew at this point, and it will be on T.J. Yates to make things happen. I think Russell Wilson will feel the pressure of this game and will make some mistakes, but I think the Wolfpack overcome them in a close win on the road. Virginia Tech gets a chance to clinch the coastal division against Miami, and I think they will get the job done. Stephen Morris has been great the last two weeks for the 'Canes, finding Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin often last week. Unfortunately for Morris, Virginia Tech's pass rush is much better than GT's, and Morris will really struggle to make the kind of throws he's been making when he's getting hit by the Hokies every chance they get. Tyrod Taylor has been the best player in the ACC all year, and I expect him to help the Hokies to a 9th win in a row. In the FSU-Maryland game, Christian Ponder's health will be a huge factor in the ball game. If he shows any ill effects of the elbow issues he's been dealing with the past couple weeks, the 'Noles shouldn't hesitate to give him the hook. They need to lean on the running game against a somewhat suspect Terp defense. The Seminoles also really need to buckle down defensively, as they really struggle in high-scoring affairs. FSU has only allowed 20 or more points 3 times this year, and they lost every one of those games. They have to make sure the Terrapins don't find an offensive rhythm early in this game, or they could be fighting to keep up all day. I think Florida State will win and put all of the pressure on North Carolina State to win out, but this one might not be easy if Ponder or the defense struggle early.
Big East -
Well, I finally got a Syracuse game right, even though they barely won, but Pittsburgh's loss just continues to display how mediocre this league is. It's hard to even be surprised when there is an upset in this conference. Pitt still has a leg up on the conference crown with the head-to-head W over Syracuse, and another win this week over South Florida would really put them back in charge. The league did finally get three teams bowl eligible last week in USF, 'Cuse, and WVU, but even if Pitt, UConn and Louisville get to 6 wins as well, it doesn't make this league any better. 6 bowl eligible teams mean nothing when the best team of the six is nowhere near the top 25 in the country. You may as well be playing in the MAC at this point.
Big East week 12 picks - South Florida over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over Louisville, Connecticut over Syracuse, Cincinnati over Rutgers
Week 12 outlook - It's time to just start picking against the favored teams here. South Florida is really starting to click over the past few weeks, and B.J. Daniels has been the catalyst. The defense is flying around much more the past few weeks making plays, and Pittsburgh is coming off of their worst loss of the year. The Panthers will try to make sure the Bulls don't beat them with Moise Plancher after Jordan Todman went off for over 200 yards last week, and I think the overemphasis on stopping the run will open up the play-action game early for Daniels. Pitt has struggled with offensive consistency, and I think they struggle enough this week to lose by a touchdown. West Virginia has been the best overall defensive team in the Big East, and it will have to live up to that billing to slow down Bilal Powell and the louisville ground game. I think they shut the Cardinals down, but the Mountaineers do need to score some points to win. Noel Devine needs to be utilized better in the red zone for WVU to come out on top, and I think Bill Stewart figures that out his week in a Mountaineer low-scoring win. Syracuse could benefit a great deal from a Pitt loss, but they will have to beat UConn to do so. The Huskies are really starting to show why many viewed them as a preseason contender for the Big East title with wins over West Virginia and Pittsburgh in their last two games. Zach Frazer was really the best qb option for this Husky team from day one, and things are clicking now that he's back in there. They are dedicated to Jordan Todman and the running game, and the defense has been good as well. I think they use fundamentals, just like Syracuse has been doing, to beat the Orange and get bowl eligible this weekend. 'Cuse won't go down easy, but someone has to lose this game. Rutgers and Cincy square off in a game to stay out of the Big East basement. Cincinnati's defense has been terrible, but Rutgers's offense has really had little continuity to it. They have gone back and forth between Chas Dodd and Tom Savage at quarterback, and an injury to Mohammed Sanu left them with a backup quarterback in the Wild Knight formation. Without consistent personnel on offense, I think the Bearcat D actually has an advantage for once, and Isaiah Pead, Zach Collaros, and Armon Binns will put up enough points to take down the Scarlet Knights.
Big 12 -
The power in the Big 12 South continues to swing from week to week. Only a few weeks ago, it was Baylor sitting alone at the top, but consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have changed all of that. Oklahoma has rebounded from a miserable loss to Texas A&M, but the Aggies strong run of late has put them back in the hunt for the south title. Oklahoma State sits atop the division, and should take care of Kansas this week, but a showdown with Oklahoma in the bedlam game could be for all the marbles. The Aggies could still be a dark horse if they can take down Nebraska at home this Saturday night. Nebraska has already won the north, but they have plenty left to play for as a top 5 finish is likely if they win out.
Big 12 week 12 picks - Oklahoma State over Kansas, Kansas State over Colorado, Texas Tech over Weber State, Texas over Florida Atlantic, Missouri over Iowa State, Baylor over Oklahoma, Nebraska over Texas A&M
Week 12 outlook - Texas Tech starts their easy two game finish with a rout over Weber State. It's a little late in the season to be playing an FCS foe, but Alabama's doing it this week too. Texas takes on Florida Atlantic in a game that they should win easily, but very little has been easy for Texas after losing their past 4 games and 6 of 7. Howard Schnellenberger used to coach at Texas, but he will have the honor of losing to them this week. The talent gap is just too wide, and the Longhorns will avoid clinching a losing season for at least one more week. The Oklahoma State Cowboys get an easy matchup with Kansas this week, and Weeden, Blackmon, and Kendall Hunter should all have a great day as I expect the 'Pokes to roll up over 40 points in a snoozer. Colorado looked good in their first game without Dan Hawkins at the helm in a win over Iowa State, but Kansas State is a tougher challenge. The Wildcats have been great at running the ball, and I expect nothing short of 150 yards from Daniel Thomas in this one. It will be senior day at Folsom Field, but Cody Hawkins's father will be there as a proud parent, not a coach. The emotion of the day could lead to a big day for Hawkins, or a rough one. I think he struggles early, but settles in eventually, but by then KSU will have enough control for the win. Iowa State has been much better than expected this season, but losing to Colorado last week really could have deflated this team. They now must pull off a season closing win over a loaded Missouri team to get a shot to play in a bowl game. Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers will be just too much. Mizzou has had issues on the road, but I think they win by two scores over Austin Arnaud and the Cyclones. Oklahoma is about to fall into a huge trap against the Baylor Bears this Saturday. The Sooners have struggled in their three road games this season, with a narrow escape against a not so great Cincinnati team, and losses to Missouri and Texas A&M. There will no doubt be a few Sooners looking ahead to the bedlam game with Oklahoma State next weekend, and the Bears will really sneak up on OU in Waco. Robert Griffin III and the Bears offense has been very good so far this season, averaging over 33 points a game. Things in the Big 12 South have had a way of evening out among the competitive teams, and a Baylor win would play into that. I think Baylor pulls off the upset in a close shootout that the Sooners didn't prepare for, and if they lose, Oklahoma would clinch the south for the Cowboys. Nebraska gets one final major test before the conference title game, squaring off against Texas A&M at Kyle Field this Saturday night. The Aggie fan base is rabid, and they will really get going if A&M jumps out front early. Ryan Tannehill has been a much needed change at qb, and the team hasn't lost since the change. Nebraska is a different animal on defense than the Aggies have been facing, however. Several teams have put up large point totals against Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and even Oklahoma to a degree. Nebraska on the other hand, has only given up more than 21 points to Oklahoma State and Iowa State, and the Cyclones only scored 24 in regulation. That blackshirt defense will make life hell on Tannehill, and the Aggies will really have to try to get the ground game working. Nebraska will need Taylor Martinez to be close to full strength to keep the Aggies guessing on defense, and I think the freshman quarterback will play very well and come out with a 10-point win.
Big Ten -
Things are still very unsettled in the Big Ten despite some big surprises in week 11. Iowa was knocked out of the race for the Big Ten title by Northwestern just a week after Indiana failed to take them down at the last second. Michigan state must be really frustrated by the fact that they lost so badly to the Hawkeyes as Iowa has done nothing but struggle since that game. Illinois missed a golden opportunity to get bowl eligible by losing to hapless Minnesota at home in Champaign. They'll need to beat Northwestern at Wrigley this weekend to get to 6 wins. Penn State looked to be on their way to a stunner against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes stormed back from down 14-3 at the half with 35 unanswered points after the break. While it was no surprise that Wisconsin took down Indiana, the 83 points they scored to do so were a complete shock, especially for such a conservative, run-heavy offense. It's actually the second time this season the Badgers have scored 70 or more. Bret Bielema is catching a lot of heat for running up the score, but he does seem to realize that he will need style points to have any shot to catch OSU in the BCS rankings if all three of the top Big Ten teams win out. As of now, all three teams need exactly one of the other two to lose to win the conference title. The Buckeyes need Wisconsin to lose, The Badgers need Michigan State to lose, and the Spartans need Ohio State to lose. If none of them lose, it goes to the BCS rankings, which for now, favor Ohio State.
Big Ten week 12 picks - Penn State over Indiana, Michigan State over Purdue, Wisconsin over Michigan, Illinois over Northwestern, Ohio State over Iowa
Week 12 outlook - Penn State should bounce back from a tough loss to the Buckeyes by dismantling a really shellshocked Indiana team. The Hoosiers will not quit, but it's likely too late for Bill Lynch to save his job, and the Nittany Lions are the more talented team. Sparty takes on a Purdue team that could only put up 16 points against the awful Wolverine defense. I expect them to score less against Michigan State, and I feel like the Spartans will get to 10-1 with a win by 3 scores. Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell will do most of the work for MSU. Illinois gets the good fortune of being the first team to play Northwestern after Dan Persa's injury. Persa was Northwestern's offense. I expect Illinois to mix up their defensive looks early to rattle the replacement quarterback, and I think the Fighting Illini give the fans at Wrigley reason to get out of the cold and hit the bars early with a blowout win. Mikel LeShoure and Nate Scheelhaase will have great field position all day if the defense does what it should, and they will capitalize on it early and often. They will not play as poorly as they have the last two weeks. Michigan is a real threat to Wisconsin this week. The Wolverines have been doing just enough on defense to keep themselves in games with that explosive offense. I expect the Badgers to have some success slowing U of M down, but if the Badgers try to win with a one-dimensional offense, Michigan will hang around, and the Wolverines are always tough at the Big House with that crowd behind them. The Badgers haven't won in Ann Arbor since 1994, but I think they break through in this game with a 7-14 point margin of victory. Ohio State gets a big time challenge this week in an angry Iowa Hawkeye team at Kinninck Stadium. The Hawkeyes are likely anxious to show that they are the team that throttled Michigan State, and not the team that squeaked by Indiana and lost to Northwestern. Unfortunately, Ohio State is more talented than Iowa. I don't expect Terelle Pryor to have a field day, but I expect him to do enough to win the game. Stanzi and Adam Robinson will play well, but the Buckeye defense has been pretty dominant so far this season. It will be that OSU defense that will be the difference in a close road win for the Bucks.
Pac-10 -
Well, the Pac-10 race continues to be Oregon and Stanford gaining separation from everybody else. Oregon did get a scare from the jekyll and hyde Cal Golden Bears. Cal lost for the first time at home last Saturday ofter winning for the first time on the road the week before. That doesn't mean things went as planned. Cal on the road struggled to beat the worst team in the Pac-10 WSU, a team they should have beaten easily. To follow that up, they came home and lost to Oregon by just 2 points, despite being heavy underdogs. While the end results were different, the strong play at home and poor play on the road continued for Cal. For Oregon, they didn't exactly gain any style points, but all they have to do is keep winning. It was also interesting to see the Ducks show a different side of their football team by grinding out the last 9+ minutes of the game in one drive to close out the Golden Bears. It's nice to know the Ducks have a tough, physical offense they can go to when they need it. Around the rest of the Pac-10, Washington State finally got a win in an upset of Oregon State. Stanford followed up a blowout win over Arizona with a close win over ASU. Arizona, however, continued to slide with a loss to USC that really has but their season in a tailspin. They now need a win over Oregon more than likely to end the regular season ranked.
Pac-10 week 12 picks - Washington over UCLA, Stanford over Cal, Oregon State, over USC
Week 12 outlook - Jake Locker should be back and rested after the bye week for the Huskies, and with all of UCLA's recent struggles, I think that's enough for Washington to take down the Bruins. Kevin Prince wasn't the most effective quarterback when he was healthy, but the Bruin offense has really gone in the tank without him. Richard Brehaut has been a more effective passer in completion percentage, but he has thrown just 2 touchdowns and 3 picks in the last 5 games. He also lacks the running ability of Prince, and I think the Huskies come out on top in Seattle. Cal is at home again, where they are always tough, but I think last week took a lot out of the Golden Bears. Harbaugh will send his offense out there to run it down Cal's throat, and the Cardinal should win comfortably. Realistically, everything from the last few weeks points at USC winning in Corvallis this weekend, but the Beavers are always trouble for the Trojans. OSU has won the last two meetings in Corvallis despite USC being highly ranked both times, including number one in 2008. USC has been coming together more and more each week, including their nice win over Arizona a week ago. Marc Tyler has provided a running game the past couple of weeks to balance the offense with Matt Barkley's fantastic passing. Oregon State's offense has really hinged on Jaquizz Rodgers, who was a critical part of the team that upset the Trojans in '08. I like Rodgers to have another big game on what is a pure gut call of Oregon State in a close one over USC.
SEC -
Both divisions in the SEC were wrapped up last Saturday, with neither clinching game being all that close. Auburn fell behind early against Georgia, trailing 21-7 in the first half. Then Cam Newton took over as always. He got a little help from Ontario McCalebb, who scored 3 TDs, but it was Newton shaking off the distractions off the field who put up almost exactly the 150 rushing yards I predicted for him while tallying 4 total touchdowns in a huge win. Now, just Alabama and South Carolina in the SEC title game stand between Auburn and the national title game. Cam Newton just has to stay eligible until then. In the east division, South Carolina finally won a division championship under the 'ol ball coach Steve Spurrier, and he had to beat his former team to do it. The Gators took the opening kickoff to the house, and then were outscored 36-7 the rest of the way. Florida didn't mix in their backup qbs enough to keep South Carolina off balance, as John Brantley threw 31 passes compared to 8 for Jordan Reed and Trey Burton combined. It didn't help that the Gators didn't stick with the run with just 20 rushes all game. Urban Meyer is normally an offensive genius, but he seems to lack that magic without Tim Tebow at quarterback. The Gamecocks just wanted this game more, and it showed. In other SEC action, Alabama crushed Mississippi State, Tennessee played as well as they have all year in a 38-point win over Ole Miss, and Kentucky got bowl eligible with a win over Vandy. There aren't many meaningful games this week, but the Iron Bowl next week will have everything riding on it.
SEC week 12 picks - Alabama over Georgia State, South Carolina over Troy, Florida over Appalachian State, LSU over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Mississippi State, Tennessee over Vanderbilt
Week 12 outlook - The Crimson Tide get a light workout against Georgia State to make sure they are rested and ready for Auburn. South Carolina gets a Troy team that is solid by Sun Belt standards, but any good SEC team should beat them with ease. Florida better not sleep on App St., who is 9-1 and among the best FCS teams in the country. The Gators should win easily, but Michigan can tell them how it feels to be unprepared for the Mountaineers. Tennessee came to life in a big way last week, and Vanderbilt is not as good as the Rebels. A win here by the Vols keeps them alive for a bowl berth with a win over Kentucky in the season finale. Mississippi State has had a great year, but it's time for the dream season to come apart a little bit. They should be able to get to 8-4 for the year, but Arkansas is just too good a team. I don't expect the Razorbacks to just roll over the Bulldogs, as Miss. St. can play some defense and Greg Childs is still out. Knile Davis will have to play well, and the Hogs' defense must play well against the run to make sure Arkansas doesn't let a winnable game slip away. I think the Bulldogs keep the game close in Starkville, but not close enough as the Razorbacks still win. In the other SEC game this week, LSU squares off against a stuggling Ole Miss team. The Tigers have been absolutely amazing on defense, and Ole Miss only put up 14 against Tennessee last week. I think LSU will win this game easily. They won't score 52 points like the Vols, but they certainly won't need to.
Best of the Rest -
The most important non-AQ teams are still Boise State and TCU, and both had big wins this past weekend. Boise handled theirs a little more smoothly than the Horned Frogs. Boise really didn't struggle against the lacksuster Idaho Vandals offense, holding them to just 14 points while putting up 52 of their own, and they quit scoring after the third quarter. TCU, meanwhile, fell behind 14-0 quickly to San Diego State in the first quarter before coming to life to take a 37-14 lead in the third quarter, but that wasn't the only threat. SDSU came back late to cut the gap to just 5 points with around 5 minutes left to play before TCU buckled down. The game made the Horned Frogs look vulnerable despite showing flashes of dominance for much of the game. Despite scoring 35 points, the Aztecs had only 7 first downs and gained 135 yards less than their season average. TCU has now clinched the MWC title, and has just a snoozer left against New Mexico. Boise is far from done with Fresno State this Friday, a trip to Reno to take on Nevada next Friday, and then a finale with Utah State. Many people feel Boise is getting treated unfairly to be behind TCU at this point, especially since the Broncos beat the Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl last season, but the Mountain West is simply stronger than the WAC so far this season. The MWC will likely have one more bowl team than the WAC, and currently have 4 teams receiving votes in the coaches poll, while the WAC has no more than 2 in any poll. While Nevada is a very dangerous team, Utah, San Diego State, and Air Force are tougher as a whole than the best challengers in the WAC. Conference-USA was opened up a bit as Central Florida was defeated by Southern Miss before the tragic shooting in Hattiesburg. The Knights still control their own destiny, but one slip up opens the door for Southern Miss or East Carolina. The west has SMU in control, but they must win out against Marshall and East Carolina to win the division. Houston and Tulsa are waiting in the wings in case of a stumble by the Mustangs. The MAC races are now much more decided with Temple losing a tough one to Ohio on Tuesday night. A couple of costly turnovers by the Owls have cost them a shot at the MAC title. Ohio needs only to beat Kent State next week, or have Temple take down Miami OH to ensure their spot in the MAC title game against Northern Illinois. Toledo would like to believe they are still alive in the west, but trust me, they're not. The only other conference race is the Sun Belt that no one cares about. Florida International is now in first after a win over Troy last Saturday, marking a great turnaround for head coach Mario Cristobal from when he first arrived on campus. The Panthers still must win two of their final three conference games to clinch the conference and get bowl eligible, which is doable, but far from a lock.
Other week 12 picks - Notre Dame over Army, Boise State over Fresno State, Utah over San Diego State, Air Force over UNLV, Northern Illinois over Ball State, East Carolina over Rice, Tulsa over UTEP, SMU over Marshall, Navy over Arkansas State, Central Florida over Tulane, Southern Miss over Houston, Nevada over New Mexico State, BYU over New Mexico, Hawaii over San Jose State, Florida International over UL-Lafayette, North Texas over UL-Monroe, UAB over Memphis, Middle Tennessee State over Western Kentucky, Utah State over Idaho, Western Michigan over Kent State, Buffalo over Eastern Michigan, Temple over Miami OH (Tue. 11/23)
Week 12 outlook - Tommy Rees wasn't exactly a revelation last Saturday, but the Irish defense was. They absolutely halted the Ute offense, and Army is a little too one-dimensional to have much more luck at Yankee Stadium. Boise State gets another tough team by WAC standards, and another blowout is still likely. The Broncos are just too explosive, and they should win by at least 20 points. San Diego State may have just announced their presence the last couple weeks, but Utah is out to prove they aren't a fraud after being dismantled by Notre Dame and TCU. I think they win a hard fought game over a very solid SDSU team that doesn't ever go quietly. NIU's win over Ball State will officially clinch the MAC West. Southern Miss will play inspired football after the difficult situation on campus this week, and the win over Houston will keep them alive for a division crown if UCF should lose a game. I doubt the Knights lose another one, however, as they get a weak Tulane team this week followed by a one-win Memphis team to close the season. ECU and Tulsa should win easily in C-USA to keep their own hopes at a conference title alive. SMU won't have it quite so easy with Marshall, but June Jones's boys should squeak one out. The BYU Cougars should get bowl eligible with a win over New Mexico. Florida International will get one win closer to locking up a conference title and a bowl berth by beating UL-Lafayette. And in a game next Tuesday, Temple will get a little bit of redemption after a tough home loss to Ohio by beating Miami OH to take second place in the division behind the Bobcats.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - South Carolina finally stepped up in the East, but the West still has five ranked teams, including an Auburn team slated to play in the national title game as of now.
2. Big Ten - Losses by Iowa and Illinois hurt the depth a little, but Wisconsin and OSU and MSU at the top are still all 9-1, and wins by Northwestern and Michigan make 6 teams at 7-3 overall or better in the Big Ten and the Nittany Lions at 6-4.
3. Big 12 - The depth has returned in the Big 12 with the emergence of Texas A&M, not to mention the continued exellence of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska at the top.
4. Pac-10 - Oregon and Stanford are both still among the top 10 teams in the country, but there is little depth now as Arizona and Oregon State slide as USC gets a little something going despite not being eligible for postseason play.
5. ACC - The league is slipping into mediocrity as the top of the divisions have had trouble winning consistently (except Va. Tech), but still not slipping enough to drop below a non-AQ conference.
6. Mountain West - TCU keeps truckin, but SDSU joins Air Force and Utah as another big time team. BYU likely to be the fifth bowl eligible team.
7. WAC - Boise State is making the depth look worse by dismantling everyone else in the conference, but the Big East just has nothing going for it to move up.
8. Big East - Where is the frontrunner? No one jumps off the page at you with UConn, WVU, Pitt, USF, and Syracuse all still very much in the hunt for a league title.
9. Conference-USA - UCF's loss to Southern Miss takes away the league's only ranked team, and keeps C-USA behind the Big East for now.
10. MAC - Northern Illinois and Ohio U are headed towards a showdown for MAC supremacy, and either would be a respectable champ.
11. Sun Belt - Let's be honest, the first place team in the conference is just 4-5 overall, and no one here is bowl eligible yet. It has to be the worst conference in the country.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 11-0 (prev. 1)
2. Oregon - 10-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 9-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 11-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 9-1 (5)
6. Ohio State - 9-1 (6)
7. Nebraska - 9-1 (7)
8. Stanford - 9-1 (8)
9. LSU - 9-1 (9)
10. Michigan State - 9-1 (11)
11. Alabama - 8-2 (12)
12. Oklahoma State - 9-1 (14)
13. Arkansas - 8-2 (13)
14. Virginia Tech - 8-2 (16)
15. Oklahoma - 8-2 (18)
16. Iowa - 7-3 (10)
17. Missouri - 8-2 (21)
18. Nevada - 9-1 (20)
19. South Carolina - 7-3 (24)
20. Northern Illinois - 8-2 (25)
21. Texas A&M - 7-3 (UNR)
22. Mississippi State - 7-3 (19)
23. Miami FL - 7-3 (UNR)
24. Florida State - (7-3 (UNR)
25. Arizona - 7-3 (17)
Dropped from the rankings - Utah (15), Penn State (22), Kansas State (23)
ACC -
Well the ACC has eliminated two more teams from the running for the conference title game. Clemson's defeat at the hands of Florida State knocks them out in the atlantic, while UNC's loss to Virginia Tech eliminates them from the coastal race. This week's ACC slate will be huge in determining those division winners, and could even see one division clinched. If the Hokies can defeat the Hurricanes, who are still without Jacory Harris, it would seal up their spot in the title game. In the atlantic, Florida State takes on Maryland in an elimination game. If Florida State were to lose this game, they would absolutely be eliminated, even if NC State loses to the Tar Heels this weekend, as they would have lost to both NC State and Maryland. If the Seminoles were to win, it would put the pressure on North Carolina State to win out in order to take the division crown. There are a couple of other games that bear watching this week, as Georgia Tech and Boston College have opportunities to get bowl eligible against Duke and Virginia respectively.
ACC week 12 picks - Boston College over Virginia, North Carolina State over North Carolina, Georgia Tech over Duke, Clemson over Wake Forest, Virginia Tech over Miami, Florida State over Maryland
Week 12 outlook - Boston College has really started to get things together in the second half of the ACC schedule. After losing their first 4 conference games, they have now won three straight over Clemson, Wake Forest, and Duke. Virginia should be the fourth in a row and will get the Eagles bowl eligible. They still aren't likely to roll up the points, but with that defense, they don't have to. Duke travels to Atlanta to take on that Georgia Tech triple option, and defense has been a problem for the Blue Devils so far. That said, the Yellow Jackets have lost three straight games and their quarterback is banged up. Duke will not be a pushover, but this is the last home game for the Tech seniors, and they don't want to go out with a loss. I expect the Yellow Jackets to get to the magic win number of 6 to get a bowl game. The Clemson Tigers also have a shot to get bowl eligible this weekend, and a game with Wake Forest should present little trouble for Dabo Swinney's boys. Wake continues to give up big point totals, and Clemson's defense can be smothering. North Carolina State gets a very tough UNC team this week, and the Wolfpack are in a must-win situation. They need to win this week, and next week against Maryland to lock up a rematch with Virginia Tech for the conference title and the automatic bowl berth. North Carolina has been shorthanded all season by suspensions, and injuries are starting to diminish the roster further. The running back situation is a motley crew at this point, and it will be on T.J. Yates to make things happen. I think Russell Wilson will feel the pressure of this game and will make some mistakes, but I think the Wolfpack overcome them in a close win on the road. Virginia Tech gets a chance to clinch the coastal division against Miami, and I think they will get the job done. Stephen Morris has been great the last two weeks for the 'Canes, finding Leonard Hankerson and Travis Benjamin often last week. Unfortunately for Morris, Virginia Tech's pass rush is much better than GT's, and Morris will really struggle to make the kind of throws he's been making when he's getting hit by the Hokies every chance they get. Tyrod Taylor has been the best player in the ACC all year, and I expect him to help the Hokies to a 9th win in a row. In the FSU-Maryland game, Christian Ponder's health will be a huge factor in the ball game. If he shows any ill effects of the elbow issues he's been dealing with the past couple weeks, the 'Noles shouldn't hesitate to give him the hook. They need to lean on the running game against a somewhat suspect Terp defense. The Seminoles also really need to buckle down defensively, as they really struggle in high-scoring affairs. FSU has only allowed 20 or more points 3 times this year, and they lost every one of those games. They have to make sure the Terrapins don't find an offensive rhythm early in this game, or they could be fighting to keep up all day. I think Florida State will win and put all of the pressure on North Carolina State to win out, but this one might not be easy if Ponder or the defense struggle early.
Big East -
Well, I finally got a Syracuse game right, even though they barely won, but Pittsburgh's loss just continues to display how mediocre this league is. It's hard to even be surprised when there is an upset in this conference. Pitt still has a leg up on the conference crown with the head-to-head W over Syracuse, and another win this week over South Florida would really put them back in charge. The league did finally get three teams bowl eligible last week in USF, 'Cuse, and WVU, but even if Pitt, UConn and Louisville get to 6 wins as well, it doesn't make this league any better. 6 bowl eligible teams mean nothing when the best team of the six is nowhere near the top 25 in the country. You may as well be playing in the MAC at this point.
Big East week 12 picks - South Florida over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over Louisville, Connecticut over Syracuse, Cincinnati over Rutgers
Week 12 outlook - It's time to just start picking against the favored teams here. South Florida is really starting to click over the past few weeks, and B.J. Daniels has been the catalyst. The defense is flying around much more the past few weeks making plays, and Pittsburgh is coming off of their worst loss of the year. The Panthers will try to make sure the Bulls don't beat them with Moise Plancher after Jordan Todman went off for over 200 yards last week, and I think the overemphasis on stopping the run will open up the play-action game early for Daniels. Pitt has struggled with offensive consistency, and I think they struggle enough this week to lose by a touchdown. West Virginia has been the best overall defensive team in the Big East, and it will have to live up to that billing to slow down Bilal Powell and the louisville ground game. I think they shut the Cardinals down, but the Mountaineers do need to score some points to win. Noel Devine needs to be utilized better in the red zone for WVU to come out on top, and I think Bill Stewart figures that out his week in a Mountaineer low-scoring win. Syracuse could benefit a great deal from a Pitt loss, but they will have to beat UConn to do so. The Huskies are really starting to show why many viewed them as a preseason contender for the Big East title with wins over West Virginia and Pittsburgh in their last two games. Zach Frazer was really the best qb option for this Husky team from day one, and things are clicking now that he's back in there. They are dedicated to Jordan Todman and the running game, and the defense has been good as well. I think they use fundamentals, just like Syracuse has been doing, to beat the Orange and get bowl eligible this weekend. 'Cuse won't go down easy, but someone has to lose this game. Rutgers and Cincy square off in a game to stay out of the Big East basement. Cincinnati's defense has been terrible, but Rutgers's offense has really had little continuity to it. They have gone back and forth between Chas Dodd and Tom Savage at quarterback, and an injury to Mohammed Sanu left them with a backup quarterback in the Wild Knight formation. Without consistent personnel on offense, I think the Bearcat D actually has an advantage for once, and Isaiah Pead, Zach Collaros, and Armon Binns will put up enough points to take down the Scarlet Knights.
Big 12 -
The power in the Big 12 South continues to swing from week to week. Only a few weeks ago, it was Baylor sitting alone at the top, but consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M have changed all of that. Oklahoma has rebounded from a miserable loss to Texas A&M, but the Aggies strong run of late has put them back in the hunt for the south title. Oklahoma State sits atop the division, and should take care of Kansas this week, but a showdown with Oklahoma in the bedlam game could be for all the marbles. The Aggies could still be a dark horse if they can take down Nebraska at home this Saturday night. Nebraska has already won the north, but they have plenty left to play for as a top 5 finish is likely if they win out.
Big 12 week 12 picks - Oklahoma State over Kansas, Kansas State over Colorado, Texas Tech over Weber State, Texas over Florida Atlantic, Missouri over Iowa State, Baylor over Oklahoma, Nebraska over Texas A&M
Week 12 outlook - Texas Tech starts their easy two game finish with a rout over Weber State. It's a little late in the season to be playing an FCS foe, but Alabama's doing it this week too. Texas takes on Florida Atlantic in a game that they should win easily, but very little has been easy for Texas after losing their past 4 games and 6 of 7. Howard Schnellenberger used to coach at Texas, but he will have the honor of losing to them this week. The talent gap is just too wide, and the Longhorns will avoid clinching a losing season for at least one more week. The Oklahoma State Cowboys get an easy matchup with Kansas this week, and Weeden, Blackmon, and Kendall Hunter should all have a great day as I expect the 'Pokes to roll up over 40 points in a snoozer. Colorado looked good in their first game without Dan Hawkins at the helm in a win over Iowa State, but Kansas State is a tougher challenge. The Wildcats have been great at running the ball, and I expect nothing short of 150 yards from Daniel Thomas in this one. It will be senior day at Folsom Field, but Cody Hawkins's father will be there as a proud parent, not a coach. The emotion of the day could lead to a big day for Hawkins, or a rough one. I think he struggles early, but settles in eventually, but by then KSU will have enough control for the win. Iowa State has been much better than expected this season, but losing to Colorado last week really could have deflated this team. They now must pull off a season closing win over a loaded Missouri team to get a shot to play in a bowl game. Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers will be just too much. Mizzou has had issues on the road, but I think they win by two scores over Austin Arnaud and the Cyclones. Oklahoma is about to fall into a huge trap against the Baylor Bears this Saturday. The Sooners have struggled in their three road games this season, with a narrow escape against a not so great Cincinnati team, and losses to Missouri and Texas A&M. There will no doubt be a few Sooners looking ahead to the bedlam game with Oklahoma State next weekend, and the Bears will really sneak up on OU in Waco. Robert Griffin III and the Bears offense has been very good so far this season, averaging over 33 points a game. Things in the Big 12 South have had a way of evening out among the competitive teams, and a Baylor win would play into that. I think Baylor pulls off the upset in a close shootout that the Sooners didn't prepare for, and if they lose, Oklahoma would clinch the south for the Cowboys. Nebraska gets one final major test before the conference title game, squaring off against Texas A&M at Kyle Field this Saturday night. The Aggie fan base is rabid, and they will really get going if A&M jumps out front early. Ryan Tannehill has been a much needed change at qb, and the team hasn't lost since the change. Nebraska is a different animal on defense than the Aggies have been facing, however. Several teams have put up large point totals against Baylor, Kansas, Texas Tech, and even Oklahoma to a degree. Nebraska on the other hand, has only given up more than 21 points to Oklahoma State and Iowa State, and the Cyclones only scored 24 in regulation. That blackshirt defense will make life hell on Tannehill, and the Aggies will really have to try to get the ground game working. Nebraska will need Taylor Martinez to be close to full strength to keep the Aggies guessing on defense, and I think the freshman quarterback will play very well and come out with a 10-point win.
Big Ten -
Things are still very unsettled in the Big Ten despite some big surprises in week 11. Iowa was knocked out of the race for the Big Ten title by Northwestern just a week after Indiana failed to take them down at the last second. Michigan state must be really frustrated by the fact that they lost so badly to the Hawkeyes as Iowa has done nothing but struggle since that game. Illinois missed a golden opportunity to get bowl eligible by losing to hapless Minnesota at home in Champaign. They'll need to beat Northwestern at Wrigley this weekend to get to 6 wins. Penn State looked to be on their way to a stunner against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes stormed back from down 14-3 at the half with 35 unanswered points after the break. While it was no surprise that Wisconsin took down Indiana, the 83 points they scored to do so were a complete shock, especially for such a conservative, run-heavy offense. It's actually the second time this season the Badgers have scored 70 or more. Bret Bielema is catching a lot of heat for running up the score, but he does seem to realize that he will need style points to have any shot to catch OSU in the BCS rankings if all three of the top Big Ten teams win out. As of now, all three teams need exactly one of the other two to lose to win the conference title. The Buckeyes need Wisconsin to lose, The Badgers need Michigan State to lose, and the Spartans need Ohio State to lose. If none of them lose, it goes to the BCS rankings, which for now, favor Ohio State.
Big Ten week 12 picks - Penn State over Indiana, Michigan State over Purdue, Wisconsin over Michigan, Illinois over Northwestern, Ohio State over Iowa
Week 12 outlook - Penn State should bounce back from a tough loss to the Buckeyes by dismantling a really shellshocked Indiana team. The Hoosiers will not quit, but it's likely too late for Bill Lynch to save his job, and the Nittany Lions are the more talented team. Sparty takes on a Purdue team that could only put up 16 points against the awful Wolverine defense. I expect them to score less against Michigan State, and I feel like the Spartans will get to 10-1 with a win by 3 scores. Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell will do most of the work for MSU. Illinois gets the good fortune of being the first team to play Northwestern after Dan Persa's injury. Persa was Northwestern's offense. I expect Illinois to mix up their defensive looks early to rattle the replacement quarterback, and I think the Fighting Illini give the fans at Wrigley reason to get out of the cold and hit the bars early with a blowout win. Mikel LeShoure and Nate Scheelhaase will have great field position all day if the defense does what it should, and they will capitalize on it early and often. They will not play as poorly as they have the last two weeks. Michigan is a real threat to Wisconsin this week. The Wolverines have been doing just enough on defense to keep themselves in games with that explosive offense. I expect the Badgers to have some success slowing U of M down, but if the Badgers try to win with a one-dimensional offense, Michigan will hang around, and the Wolverines are always tough at the Big House with that crowd behind them. The Badgers haven't won in Ann Arbor since 1994, but I think they break through in this game with a 7-14 point margin of victory. Ohio State gets a big time challenge this week in an angry Iowa Hawkeye team at Kinninck Stadium. The Hawkeyes are likely anxious to show that they are the team that throttled Michigan State, and not the team that squeaked by Indiana and lost to Northwestern. Unfortunately, Ohio State is more talented than Iowa. I don't expect Terelle Pryor to have a field day, but I expect him to do enough to win the game. Stanzi and Adam Robinson will play well, but the Buckeye defense has been pretty dominant so far this season. It will be that OSU defense that will be the difference in a close road win for the Bucks.
Pac-10 -
Well, the Pac-10 race continues to be Oregon and Stanford gaining separation from everybody else. Oregon did get a scare from the jekyll and hyde Cal Golden Bears. Cal lost for the first time at home last Saturday ofter winning for the first time on the road the week before. That doesn't mean things went as planned. Cal on the road struggled to beat the worst team in the Pac-10 WSU, a team they should have beaten easily. To follow that up, they came home and lost to Oregon by just 2 points, despite being heavy underdogs. While the end results were different, the strong play at home and poor play on the road continued for Cal. For Oregon, they didn't exactly gain any style points, but all they have to do is keep winning. It was also interesting to see the Ducks show a different side of their football team by grinding out the last 9+ minutes of the game in one drive to close out the Golden Bears. It's nice to know the Ducks have a tough, physical offense they can go to when they need it. Around the rest of the Pac-10, Washington State finally got a win in an upset of Oregon State. Stanford followed up a blowout win over Arizona with a close win over ASU. Arizona, however, continued to slide with a loss to USC that really has but their season in a tailspin. They now need a win over Oregon more than likely to end the regular season ranked.
Pac-10 week 12 picks - Washington over UCLA, Stanford over Cal, Oregon State, over USC
Week 12 outlook - Jake Locker should be back and rested after the bye week for the Huskies, and with all of UCLA's recent struggles, I think that's enough for Washington to take down the Bruins. Kevin Prince wasn't the most effective quarterback when he was healthy, but the Bruin offense has really gone in the tank without him. Richard Brehaut has been a more effective passer in completion percentage, but he has thrown just 2 touchdowns and 3 picks in the last 5 games. He also lacks the running ability of Prince, and I think the Huskies come out on top in Seattle. Cal is at home again, where they are always tough, but I think last week took a lot out of the Golden Bears. Harbaugh will send his offense out there to run it down Cal's throat, and the Cardinal should win comfortably. Realistically, everything from the last few weeks points at USC winning in Corvallis this weekend, but the Beavers are always trouble for the Trojans. OSU has won the last two meetings in Corvallis despite USC being highly ranked both times, including number one in 2008. USC has been coming together more and more each week, including their nice win over Arizona a week ago. Marc Tyler has provided a running game the past couple of weeks to balance the offense with Matt Barkley's fantastic passing. Oregon State's offense has really hinged on Jaquizz Rodgers, who was a critical part of the team that upset the Trojans in '08. I like Rodgers to have another big game on what is a pure gut call of Oregon State in a close one over USC.
SEC -
Both divisions in the SEC were wrapped up last Saturday, with neither clinching game being all that close. Auburn fell behind early against Georgia, trailing 21-7 in the first half. Then Cam Newton took over as always. He got a little help from Ontario McCalebb, who scored 3 TDs, but it was Newton shaking off the distractions off the field who put up almost exactly the 150 rushing yards I predicted for him while tallying 4 total touchdowns in a huge win. Now, just Alabama and South Carolina in the SEC title game stand between Auburn and the national title game. Cam Newton just has to stay eligible until then. In the east division, South Carolina finally won a division championship under the 'ol ball coach Steve Spurrier, and he had to beat his former team to do it. The Gators took the opening kickoff to the house, and then were outscored 36-7 the rest of the way. Florida didn't mix in their backup qbs enough to keep South Carolina off balance, as John Brantley threw 31 passes compared to 8 for Jordan Reed and Trey Burton combined. It didn't help that the Gators didn't stick with the run with just 20 rushes all game. Urban Meyer is normally an offensive genius, but he seems to lack that magic without Tim Tebow at quarterback. The Gamecocks just wanted this game more, and it showed. In other SEC action, Alabama crushed Mississippi State, Tennessee played as well as they have all year in a 38-point win over Ole Miss, and Kentucky got bowl eligible with a win over Vandy. There aren't many meaningful games this week, but the Iron Bowl next week will have everything riding on it.
SEC week 12 picks - Alabama over Georgia State, South Carolina over Troy, Florida over Appalachian State, LSU over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Mississippi State, Tennessee over Vanderbilt
Week 12 outlook - The Crimson Tide get a light workout against Georgia State to make sure they are rested and ready for Auburn. South Carolina gets a Troy team that is solid by Sun Belt standards, but any good SEC team should beat them with ease. Florida better not sleep on App St., who is 9-1 and among the best FCS teams in the country. The Gators should win easily, but Michigan can tell them how it feels to be unprepared for the Mountaineers. Tennessee came to life in a big way last week, and Vanderbilt is not as good as the Rebels. A win here by the Vols keeps them alive for a bowl berth with a win over Kentucky in the season finale. Mississippi State has had a great year, but it's time for the dream season to come apart a little bit. They should be able to get to 8-4 for the year, but Arkansas is just too good a team. I don't expect the Razorbacks to just roll over the Bulldogs, as Miss. St. can play some defense and Greg Childs is still out. Knile Davis will have to play well, and the Hogs' defense must play well against the run to make sure Arkansas doesn't let a winnable game slip away. I think the Bulldogs keep the game close in Starkville, but not close enough as the Razorbacks still win. In the other SEC game this week, LSU squares off against a stuggling Ole Miss team. The Tigers have been absolutely amazing on defense, and Ole Miss only put up 14 against Tennessee last week. I think LSU will win this game easily. They won't score 52 points like the Vols, but they certainly won't need to.
Best of the Rest -
The most important non-AQ teams are still Boise State and TCU, and both had big wins this past weekend. Boise handled theirs a little more smoothly than the Horned Frogs. Boise really didn't struggle against the lacksuster Idaho Vandals offense, holding them to just 14 points while putting up 52 of their own, and they quit scoring after the third quarter. TCU, meanwhile, fell behind 14-0 quickly to San Diego State in the first quarter before coming to life to take a 37-14 lead in the third quarter, but that wasn't the only threat. SDSU came back late to cut the gap to just 5 points with around 5 minutes left to play before TCU buckled down. The game made the Horned Frogs look vulnerable despite showing flashes of dominance for much of the game. Despite scoring 35 points, the Aztecs had only 7 first downs and gained 135 yards less than their season average. TCU has now clinched the MWC title, and has just a snoozer left against New Mexico. Boise is far from done with Fresno State this Friday, a trip to Reno to take on Nevada next Friday, and then a finale with Utah State. Many people feel Boise is getting treated unfairly to be behind TCU at this point, especially since the Broncos beat the Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl last season, but the Mountain West is simply stronger than the WAC so far this season. The MWC will likely have one more bowl team than the WAC, and currently have 4 teams receiving votes in the coaches poll, while the WAC has no more than 2 in any poll. While Nevada is a very dangerous team, Utah, San Diego State, and Air Force are tougher as a whole than the best challengers in the WAC. Conference-USA was opened up a bit as Central Florida was defeated by Southern Miss before the tragic shooting in Hattiesburg. The Knights still control their own destiny, but one slip up opens the door for Southern Miss or East Carolina. The west has SMU in control, but they must win out against Marshall and East Carolina to win the division. Houston and Tulsa are waiting in the wings in case of a stumble by the Mustangs. The MAC races are now much more decided with Temple losing a tough one to Ohio on Tuesday night. A couple of costly turnovers by the Owls have cost them a shot at the MAC title. Ohio needs only to beat Kent State next week, or have Temple take down Miami OH to ensure their spot in the MAC title game against Northern Illinois. Toledo would like to believe they are still alive in the west, but trust me, they're not. The only other conference race is the Sun Belt that no one cares about. Florida International is now in first after a win over Troy last Saturday, marking a great turnaround for head coach Mario Cristobal from when he first arrived on campus. The Panthers still must win two of their final three conference games to clinch the conference and get bowl eligible, which is doable, but far from a lock.
Other week 12 picks - Notre Dame over Army, Boise State over Fresno State, Utah over San Diego State, Air Force over UNLV, Northern Illinois over Ball State, East Carolina over Rice, Tulsa over UTEP, SMU over Marshall, Navy over Arkansas State, Central Florida over Tulane, Southern Miss over Houston, Nevada over New Mexico State, BYU over New Mexico, Hawaii over San Jose State, Florida International over UL-Lafayette, North Texas over UL-Monroe, UAB over Memphis, Middle Tennessee State over Western Kentucky, Utah State over Idaho, Western Michigan over Kent State, Buffalo over Eastern Michigan, Temple over Miami OH (Tue. 11/23)
Week 12 outlook - Tommy Rees wasn't exactly a revelation last Saturday, but the Irish defense was. They absolutely halted the Ute offense, and Army is a little too one-dimensional to have much more luck at Yankee Stadium. Boise State gets another tough team by WAC standards, and another blowout is still likely. The Broncos are just too explosive, and they should win by at least 20 points. San Diego State may have just announced their presence the last couple weeks, but Utah is out to prove they aren't a fraud after being dismantled by Notre Dame and TCU. I think they win a hard fought game over a very solid SDSU team that doesn't ever go quietly. NIU's win over Ball State will officially clinch the MAC West. Southern Miss will play inspired football after the difficult situation on campus this week, and the win over Houston will keep them alive for a division crown if UCF should lose a game. I doubt the Knights lose another one, however, as they get a weak Tulane team this week followed by a one-win Memphis team to close the season. ECU and Tulsa should win easily in C-USA to keep their own hopes at a conference title alive. SMU won't have it quite so easy with Marshall, but June Jones's boys should squeak one out. The BYU Cougars should get bowl eligible with a win over New Mexico. Florida International will get one win closer to locking up a conference title and a bowl berth by beating UL-Lafayette. And in a game next Tuesday, Temple will get a little bit of redemption after a tough home loss to Ohio by beating Miami OH to take second place in the division behind the Bobcats.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - South Carolina finally stepped up in the East, but the West still has five ranked teams, including an Auburn team slated to play in the national title game as of now.
2. Big Ten - Losses by Iowa and Illinois hurt the depth a little, but Wisconsin and OSU and MSU at the top are still all 9-1, and wins by Northwestern and Michigan make 6 teams at 7-3 overall or better in the Big Ten and the Nittany Lions at 6-4.
3. Big 12 - The depth has returned in the Big 12 with the emergence of Texas A&M, not to mention the continued exellence of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Nebraska at the top.
4. Pac-10 - Oregon and Stanford are both still among the top 10 teams in the country, but there is little depth now as Arizona and Oregon State slide as USC gets a little something going despite not being eligible for postseason play.
5. ACC - The league is slipping into mediocrity as the top of the divisions have had trouble winning consistently (except Va. Tech), but still not slipping enough to drop below a non-AQ conference.
6. Mountain West - TCU keeps truckin, but SDSU joins Air Force and Utah as another big time team. BYU likely to be the fifth bowl eligible team.
7. WAC - Boise State is making the depth look worse by dismantling everyone else in the conference, but the Big East just has nothing going for it to move up.
8. Big East - Where is the frontrunner? No one jumps off the page at you with UConn, WVU, Pitt, USF, and Syracuse all still very much in the hunt for a league title.
9. Conference-USA - UCF's loss to Southern Miss takes away the league's only ranked team, and keeps C-USA behind the Big East for now.
10. MAC - Northern Illinois and Ohio U are headed towards a showdown for MAC supremacy, and either would be a respectable champ.
11. Sun Belt - Let's be honest, the first place team in the conference is just 4-5 overall, and no one here is bowl eligible yet. It has to be the worst conference in the country.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 11-0 (prev. 1)
2. Oregon - 10-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 9-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 11-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 9-1 (5)
6. Ohio State - 9-1 (6)
7. Nebraska - 9-1 (7)
8. Stanford - 9-1 (8)
9. LSU - 9-1 (9)
10. Michigan State - 9-1 (11)
11. Alabama - 8-2 (12)
12. Oklahoma State - 9-1 (14)
13. Arkansas - 8-2 (13)
14. Virginia Tech - 8-2 (16)
15. Oklahoma - 8-2 (18)
16. Iowa - 7-3 (10)
17. Missouri - 8-2 (21)
18. Nevada - 9-1 (20)
19. South Carolina - 7-3 (24)
20. Northern Illinois - 8-2 (25)
21. Texas A&M - 7-3 (UNR)
22. Mississippi State - 7-3 (19)
23. Miami FL - 7-3 (UNR)
24. Florida State - (7-3 (UNR)
25. Arizona - 7-3 (17)
Dropped from the rankings - Utah (15), Penn State (22), Kansas State (23)
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
What we've Learned about College Football: Week 10
Another wild week of this college football season is in the books, and it was filled with surprises on the field and turmoil and controversey off of it. For starters, I aparently am awful at selecting who is going to win games, as I missed on quite a few big ones last weekend. Pretty much every Big 12 game went the opposite of how I thought it would go, and I missed on the two Big East games as well. I was wrong on LSU-Bama, Arizona-Stanford, and a handful of ACC games. Luckily, it was only one week, and I can hopefully reverse my fortunes this week. Aside from just the picks I got wrong, some big on-field storylines from week 10 included the continued demise of Texas, who now may not even get bowl eligible, the resurgence of Iowa State, who fell one point short of taking down Nebraska in overtime, and the complete collapse of Colorado in blowing a 28 point lead in the fourth quarter to Kansas. Those are just from the Big 12. On top of that was the epic shootout between Illinois and Michigan, Demarlo Belcher dropping a pass that would have stunned Iowa, JoePa picking up win number 400 in a comeback win over Northwestern, Oregon, Auburn, TCU, and Boise continuing to roll, Clemson staying alive in the ACC Atlantic race, and North Carolina not giving in just yet in the Coastal. A lot of action over the weekend to be sure. Off the field, all of the drama centered around Cam Newton and the allegations that there were payoffs involved in his recruitment process. Reports surfaced about a few incidents of cheating that occurred at Florida, and it already paints a negative picture of Newton's character. Now these allegations that Cam and his father Cecil both admitted in separate phone conversations that Cam's decision of which school he would attend would come down to money. Newton is the clear Heisman frontrunner on the field, and these NCAA investigations never move quickly. I doubt Newton will be suspended this season, but if he wins the Heisman, and Auburn wins the title, and then the allegations are found to be true later, the NCAA could have a real mess on its hands. Heck, to date, Reggie Bush is the only player to forfeit a heisman trophy over eligibility concerns, and that just happened this season. To have another so soon would really tarnish the credibility of the award and college football as a whole. Hopefully, the investigation turns up nothing, and this season stands as played on the field. In other off the field news, Colorado gave head coach Dan Hawkins the axe this week. Hawkins was supposed to be a homerun hire after turning Boise State into a strong program that can compete on a national level, but the success didn't make the trip to Boulder with him. Hawkins was just 19-39 in almost five seasons at Colorado, without a single winning campaign. The firing was certainly no surprise following the 28-point collapse to the Jayhawks on Saturday, and Hawkins joins former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster on the midseason unemployment list. Some other coaches who should be on the lookout for pink slips this season include:
Mike Locksley, New Mexico - His squad's win over Wyoming was their first of the season, and brought his coaching record to 2-19 in two seasons. Oh, and he also punched out an assistant coach.
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA - Neuheisel is just 14-19 in three years at UCLA, and has just a 7-16 mark in Pac-10 play. The fact that his team went in the tank after Kevin Prince's injury this year doesn't help.
Paul Wulff, Washington State - He's probably about done after a 4-31 start to his coaching career in Pullman. Unless he wins a couple down the stretch he will likely be gone.
Mark Richt, Georgia - The Bulldogs have rebounded from a slow start, but if they fail to get bowl eligible, it might not matter. Richt's track record of success might give him one reprieve if they do end up 5-7 this year.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan - Rodriguez has had a very interesting 3 years in Ann Arbor, starting 3-9 his first year, then opening year two at 4-0 before dropping 7 of 8 to close that season. So far in year three, the Wolverines are 6-3 and have gotten bowl eligible, but a 7-5 finish would hardly keep Rodriguez totally safe. The biggest safety net Rodriguez has is that all of the offensive personnel were recruited for his system.
Bill Lynch, Indiana - Went to a bowl game in his first season at Indiana, and has only won 2 conference games in the three years since.
Butch Davis, North Carolina - Davis has done a commendable job keeping this squad together despite a serious cheating scandal that got many of his best players suspended, but the fact that the scandal occurred under his watch might get him ousted anyway.
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest - Grobe has always been good at getting the most out of his players, especially when they went to the Orange Bowl in 2006, but it has been a downward spiral since. This year's Deacs have bottomed out, currently sitting at 2-7, and they are 112th out of 120 FBS teams in points allowed per game at 38.8.
Now let's look at the conference races and this week's upcoming matchups:
ACC -
Last week, the ACC was full of surprises. The atlantic division became a wide open race between NC State, Clemson, Florida State, and Maryland thanks to Clemson taking down the Wolfpack and the other two losing to coastal division teams. Clemson must be kicking themselves at this point for their loss to Boston College. If they would have won that game, this would already be a 4-way tie, and Clemson has beaten two of the other three and has Florida State this week. It's crazy to think that the Tigers can go 3-0 against the other three teams in the race and still need help to win the division and get a shot at the ACC title. As it stands, Clemson needs to win out, and the winner of the NC State-Maryland game must lose one more game, most likely NC State to North Carolina or Maryland to FSU. There are a lot of scenarios right now that can determine this thing, but it seems like the Tigers are the most talented team of the bunch, and have the most work to do to get the division crown. NC State has the easiest route to the title, needing to win out against the weakest remaining schedule of anyone in the race. Things are much clearer in the Coastal division, where Virginia Tech is in total control and can all but sew up the division with a win over North Carolina. The Tar Heels won't go down easy, especially after the performance they put on against Florida State last week. It seemed UNC was out of gas after falling to Miami badly, and squeaking by William & Mary, but they showed they still have plenty left in the tank. Miami isn't quite eliminated from the race, but they really need Jacory Harris back. It took a last minute touchdown to get past Maryland this past week, and fill-in quarterback Stephen Morris really struggled until that point. For Virginia Tech to lose the division title, they have to lose two of their remaining games with UNC, Miami, and Virginia.
ACC week 11 picks - Boston College over Duke, North Carolina State over Wake Forest, Maryland over Virginia, Virginia Tech over North Carolina, Clemson over Florida State, Georgia Tech over Miami
Week 11 outlook - Duke is finally starting to play some solid football, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They've put up back-to-back nice wins over Navy and Virginia and dropped 89 combined points in the two games. Boston College has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference though, especially over the last month. Look for the Eagles to slow down Duke's passing attack enough to pull off the victory. The NC State Wolfpack is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Clemson last week, but they get the worst defense in the league this weekend to help fix that heartbreak. Russell Wilson and the 'Pack will likely reach 40+ points without breaking a sweat in this easy win. Maryland is entering a must-win game against the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend. A victory keeps them tied atop the atlantic division. Virginia came up with a big win over Miami a couple weeks ago, but followed that up with a bad loss to Duke. Maryland isn't a great team despite a strong overall record, but they are better than the Cavs and should win, even in Charlottesville. Miami got things back on track against Maryland late, but Georgia Tech is a tougher all-around team. Jacory Harris is still out, and Georgia Tech can pressure the quarterback a little bit. Without Damian Berry to spark the running game, it will put the burden on Graig Cooper to have success running the ball to keep Stephen Morris upright. Miami has a sensational defense that should at least slow down GT's triple option running game, but the 'Canes have to score some points to win. I think Tech comes out on top over the beat up Miami offense in a low scorer, somewhere around 19-17. Virginia Tech had a bit of a scare last week against Georgia Tech, and now gets a tough North Carolina team trying to derail their 7-game winning streak. Tyrod Taylor has done a great job leading the offense after a tough first two games, and running back Darren Evans has been solid as well. UNC has an unsettled running back situation, and Virginia Tech will likely put a lot of pressure on that Carolina offense in this one. They have made some very good quarterbacks look bad, and Tyler Yates will likely be the next opposing signal-caller to struggle against the Hokies. The key for UNC to stay in the game will be limiting turnovers and hitting big plays against a D that has given up a few of them. I like the Hokies by a touchdown in this one though. In the final ACC contest of the week, Clemson and Florida State square off in Tallahassee in a pivotal atlantic division clash. Both of these teams have had strong balanced offenses, but with Andre Ellington ailing for Clemson, and Christian Ponder banged up for the 'Noles, whichever team can maintain that balance despite the injuries will likely win this one. Both of these teams need to win to remain in the hunt for the ACC title, but I think Ponder's injuries continue to slow FSU down. Clemson will unleash explosive end Da'Quan Bowers on Ponder this Saturday, and the result should be a Tiger win. It won't be a rout, but i think Clemson stays alive in the race for now.
Big East -
Week 10 in the Big East was yet another chance for the teams to run away from the top 25 rather than towards it. West Virginia fell from the rankings a few weeks ago, but Syracuse was creeping towards it. Of course, the Orange lost the second people started to believe they were decent. I haven't successfully picked the winner of a Syracuse game in about a month, and I have no clue if I will do so this week. With 'Cuse's loss, the Pitt Panthers are no longer just in front of the Big East, they are running away with it. At 3-0, the Panthers have a two game lead on the entire conference, and no one behind them is good enough to offer real competition. The Panthers will likely win out, but West Virginia and South Florida will offer some resistance. If that happens, the Panthers will without a doubt be ranked at year's end and will not look quite as foolish in a BCS game. South Florida and Louisville have been getting themselves together of late, and their matchup against each other could put the winner in position for a run at second place.
Big East week 11 picks - Pittsburgh over UConn, West Virginia over Cincinnati, Louisville over South Florida, Syracuse over Rutgers
Week 11 outlook - Zach Frazer has been an upgrade at quarterback for the Huskies over Cody Endres and Michael Box, and the team pulled off a win over West Virginia with Frazer in there. Unfortunately for UConn, Pitt is absolutely rolling right now, and the Pitt backfield duo of Dion Lewis and Ray Graham will be too much for the Huskies to stop. Pitt should roll by two scores. In Morgantown, it will be a question of which unit will be more inept, the Cincinnati defense or the West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers have a heck of a playmaker in Noel Devine, but he doesn't seem to make enough plays in the red zone with only 4 rushing scores in 8 games. I've been burned by believing in Cincinnati earlier in the year, and I think the sieve like Cincy defense gives up just enough to lose to West Virginia in this one. In the South Florida-Louisville game, two teams are squaring off while playing their best football of the year. Bilal Powell is over a thousand yards for the Cardinals and they are coming off a huge win over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. South Florida, meanwhile, has won two straight over Cincy and Rutgers, and put up two of their 3 highest point totals against an FBS foe this season in those games. Moise Plancher and B.J. Daniels have led the charge for the Bulls, but this next game should be a good one. I think the raucous crowd at Papa John's Stadium will be enough of a boost to the Louisville defense to slow down the Bulls in this one. Look for two touchdowns out of Bilal Powell in another strong game, and a close win over South Florida. In the other Big East game this week, Rutgers and Syracuse look to get back on track after tough losses last week. I'm gonna give Syracuse another chance this week. I think the Orange will do a great job af bouncing back from the loss to Louisville. Rutgers is a tough squad, but freshman qb Chas Dodd still has some things to figure out, and Syracuse's defense will not let Mohammed Sanu and the "Wild Knight" formation beat them. I like 'Cuse in another close Big East showdown.
Big 12 -
The Big 12 certainly had the most topsy-turvy week 10 in the college football world. The race for the south division title appears to be wide open all of a sudden with losses by Baylor and Oklahoma, and a recent winning streak by Texas A&M. About the only teams that appear out of the race are Texas and Texas Tech. That's a pretty steep drop for a Texas team that was ranked number 4 in the preseason. Oklahoma State has the most control of the division, but they travel to Austin this week and host the Sooners to close the season. The north division was almost equally wild if only Iowa State had converted the two-pointer to beat Nebraska. If the Huskers had gone down, Iowa State would actually lead the north at 4-2 while Nebraska and Missouri would each be 3-2. With the narrow win, the Cornhukers have just about wrapped up the division, and a win over lowly Kansas this weekend will secure their place in the Big 12 title game. Little has been certain in this conference the past few weeks, and more upsets are likely before the season is done.
Big 12 week 11 picks - Missouri over Kansas State, Iowa State over Colorado, Nebraska over Kansas, Oklahoma State over Texas
Week 11 outlook - Colorado is in too much turmoil as a team this week after collapsing and allowing a 28-point comeback to Kansas and losing head coach Dan Hawkins. I don't expect a focused team on Saturday, and the improved Iowa State Cyclones will take care of Colorado, even in Boulder. Kansas should be flying high after their historic comeback over the Buffs last week. Unfortunately for Kansas, that magic won't continue this week, especially with T-Magic Taylor Martinez back for Nebraska. The Jayhawks didn't follow up their upset win over Georgia Tech with any other strong performances, and they won't follow up this win very well either. Nebraska is just too good to be stopped in this one. Big Red wins by at least 3 touchdowns. Missouri finally learned how difficult life on the road can be as they have dropped two straight games away from Columbia. The most recent loss was to a Texas Tech team that really shouldn't have been able to beat the Tigers. Mizzou now draws a Kansas State team that was up on Texas a week ago 37-0 before taking their foot off the gas pedal. Lucky for Missouri, they get to go back home for this one. They have been impressive at home with wins over Oklahoma and San Diego State. Kansas State beat Texas with a very one dimensional attack, and Missouri's defense will not allow that to happen to them. I think Blaine Gabbert gets the offense rolling again, and the Tiger defense slows down Daniel Thomas and K-State just enough to pull off the win. Oklahoma State plays in the most important Big 12 game of the week against Texas. The Longhorns are collapsing fast. There are no guarantees that Texas will even get to a bowl game, as they have to beat either Oklahoma State or Texas A&M to get there. They allowed Kansas State to roll up a 37-point lead last week, and the Cowboys have a much better offense than the Wildcats. There is no one in the Texas secondary that can contain Justin Blackmon, and if they double-team him, Weeden will find all of the other weapons in his arsenal. Kendall Hunter is too good a runner for the Longhorns to not leave seven in the box, and as a result Texas will have to pick their poison between the ground game and passing game, and no matter which they choose, it won't end well. I like the Cowboys to win by multiple scores in Austin.
Big Ten -
While there weren't a whole lot of season-changing games on the slate last weekend in the Big Ten, it didn't mean the league was devoid of any excitement. If Indiana had finished off their improbable upset of Iowa, that might have been season-altering in the Big Ten, but it was not to be. Demarlo Belcher simply couldn't hang on to Ben Chappell's pass as he fell to the ground in the end zone, allowing Iowa to hold on to a share of first in the conference. If that game wasn't exciting enough, the showdown in Ann Arbor was an instant classic. Neither team could play a lick of defense, which made for some explosive offense in a game that was tied at 31 by halftime, and 45 at the end of regulation. The teams continued to trade touchdowns in overtime until a two point conversion by the Wolverines proved to be the deciding factor. That score came after a tipped and bobbled pass on fourth down in the second overtime found Junior Hemingway for a touchdown. The game really was exhilirating to watch, unless you were an Illinois fan. Around the rest of the conference, Michigan State and Wisconsin both won easily to keep the title picture a little foggy, and Joe Paterno got his 400th career win after the Nittany Lions overcame a 21-0 defecit against Northwestern. It was the 2nd time Northwestern has lost a game after leading by at least 17 points, and they only have 3 losses all year. As far as the conference title race is concerned, there are still 4 teams with their BCS bowl hopes very much alive, but almost all of them need some other teams among the four to trip up at some point. They all have possible stumbling blocks ahead as OSU takes on PSU, Iowa and Michigan, Iowa still has Northwestern and OSU, MSU still faces Penn State, and Wisconsin still has to survive Michigan in the Big House and Northwestern in Wisconsin. Anything is still possible in this race.
Big Ten week 11 picks - Iowa over Northwestern, Wisconsin over Indiana, Illinois over Minnesota, Michigan over Purdue, Ohio State over Penn State
Week 11 outlook - Only a couple of tough games to predict this week here, as Wisconsin won't allow Indiana to hang around against them this week as the Hoosiers did against Iowa. Even without John Clay, the Badgers ground game with James White and Montee Ball should still dominate. Indiana's offense is far too one-dimensional to be a real threat to the Badgers this week, and Wisconsin will win by 2-3 scores. The Fighting Illini need to regroup on the defensive side of the ball and get over the psychological hangover from the loss in Ann Arbor, but they are a much better team than the Gophers. Look for Nate Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure to run all over Minnesota, and who knows, maybe Nate will find Leshoure on that same wheel route that has resulted in three wide open touchdowns the last two weeks. Illinois should look a little rough early on in this one, but should wind up way ahead at the final gun. Michigan gets an easier matchup this week as they travel to Purdue. Michigan's offense has been pretty much unstoppable against even some solid defenses, and Purdue will certainly be the next D they carve up. The question is how many stops the Wolverines will be able to make. Luckily for Michigan, Purdue is down to their third-string quarterback Sean Robinson, and the offense has really struggled the last couple of games with him in. Normally, the Michigan defense cures whatever ails a struggling offense, but I expect Michigan to make enough stops to make this their easiest win since the Bowling Green game in week 4. Iowa travels to Evanston this week to take on Northwestern, which is a team that has actually had great success against the Hawkeyes. The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings, including stunning the then 4th ranked Hawkeyes last season. Iowa will be looking for a little revenge, and with Adam Robinson likely back, they will have the tools to get that vengeance. Robinson will help Iowa to control time of possession, and keep the ball away from Dan Persa, Jeremy Ebert and the rest of a very efficient Wildcat offense. Northwestern needs to play a full 60 minutes to hang with the Hawkeyes, and even if they hang around, I still think Iowa will win. I would be surprised if the final margin is greater than 10 points though. This week's big-time Big Ten showdown is between Ohio State and Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. The odds are stacked against the Nittany Lions, as only two of JoePa's 400 career wins have come at the Horseshoe, and only one in the last 30 years. The Buckeyes are the more talented team right now, as Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Saine, and Daniel Herron will be able to frustrate PSU's run defense all day. Matt McGloin has been a huge upgrade over Rob Bolden for Penn State, as he makes good decisions and he makes them quickly, which Bolden did not. That upgrade won't matter against a great defense like Ohio State's. The Buckeyes will slow down the Nittany Lions just enough to win another one over Paterno in Columbus.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 continues to be the easiest league in the country to predict. The bad teams play bad, the good teams play good (okay they play well), and the conference race is pretty clear cut. Oregon pretty much has the conference title and automatic BCS berth in their pocket right now, needing to win two of their final three games to sew up the title. Cal looks like an easy win, and Arizona and Oregon State are both flawed enough to fall to the Ducks as well. Stanford looks to have a very strong shot to go to a BCS bowl as long as they don't lose another game, and Oregon State is the only team currently in the top half of the Pac-10 the Cardinal has yet to play. Everyone else appears to be playing for consolation bowl games. If Arizona can upset Oregon, things will get a little more interesting, but a lot more would have to happen to allow someone other than the Cardinal or Ducks into the BCS. Oregon still remains alive for the National Championship, and Stanford certainly boosted their at-large BCS profile by dismantling Arizona.
Pac-10 week 11 picks - Oregon State over Washington State, Stanford over Arizona State, Oregon over California, Arizona over USC
Week 11 outlook - Oregon State is an easy pick, as they will get Jaquizz Rodgers and the offense back on track and keep Wazzu winless against FBS foes. Cal has a slight glimmer of hope against Oregon in that they haven't lost a game at home, and even average winning there by a robust 39 points per game. A couple of issues with reading too much into that: Oregon is easily the best team the Golden Bears have welcomed to Berkeley this year, and Kevin Riley was under center for all four Cal wins. This Saturday, it will be Brock Mansion taking the snaps, and Oregon feasts on inexperienced qbs with that opportunistic defense. Cal should be a mess again this week and should fall by a wide margin. Something in the ballpark of 56-10 wouldn't surprise me. Stanford showed me last weekend that they are able to take care of any opponent left on their schedule after a very impressive win over the Wildcats. Arizona State is not nearly as tough a challenge, and although ASU's athletic linebackers should make it hard for Stanford to get the ground game going, Andrew Luck is still one of the best passers in the country. The Cardinal aren't one to run up the score, so I expect them to win by about two scores. USC at Arizona is the best Pac-10 matchup this week, and the story will be the quarterbacks. Foles has had a week to shake off the rust, and he should be ready for a USC secondary that has struggled at times this year. The offense for the Wildcats has to be better this week, and use Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby in the running game to keep the Trojans guessing. Matt Barkley has made real strides this season, and USC can score, but the one-dimensional nature of that Trojan offense should be enough of an edge for Arizona to get the home win in a good game.
SEC -
There wasn't a lot to learn in the SEC this week on the field, as most of the conference's teams played tune up games against lesser foes. There was plenty of drama off the field with the mounting Cam Newton scandal, and the fact that Les Miles was caught on camera eating grass at Tiger Stadium Saturday. Maybe that's where he gets his magic touch for pulling off one miracle win after another. This week wasn't quite as miraculous as the Tennessee or Florida games, but the gambler of Baton Rouge did make another amazingly gutsy call late in this one. On a fourth-and-1 play from inside the Bama 30-yard line, Miles called a reverse to the wide receiver that went for 23 yards to set up the winning touchdown. The game knocked Alabama out of the national title conversation and thrust LSU into it as the top ranked one-loss team. There is some sentiment out there that if Oregon and Auburn both lose, a once beaten SEC squad should still get a title bid over Boise and TCU. I disagree with that idea, but some people definitely believe it. In the other marquee SEC mtchup, Arkansas throttled South Carolina who has lost two of three since beating Alabama. The Gamecocks now fall into a tie with Florida for the east division lead, and the two meet on Saturday to decide who goes to the conference title game. The west still has a couple weeks before all is settled.
SEC week 11 picks - Kentucky over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Georgia, Arkansas over UTEP, LSU over UL-Monroe, Alabama over Mississippi St., Ole Miss over Tennessee, Florida over South Carolina
Week 11 outlook - Les Miles and LSU won't need any magic this week against UL-Monroe. Their quarterback duo played well against 'Bama, and could use some more valuable game experience to get ready for Arkansas. Arkansas, meanwhile, also gets a tune-up this week to get ready for that showdown with the Tigers. Ryan Mallett should have a field day against UTEP even without Greg Childs, and even Knile Davis should have another strong game. Ole Miss should be able to top the Vols, but this will be a tight game if Jeremiah Masoli doesn't play. Ole Miss has more weapons on offense, but they don't always put them to good use. I still like the Rebels in a squeaker. The wheels are starting to come off for Vanderbilt down the stretch, as Florida took them apart last week. Kentucky isn't Florida, but Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb can do some damage of their own. Expect Kentucky to win by about 20 points. Auburn gets a trap game against Georgia this week. Georgia has been a different team since getting AJ Green back from his suspension, and a win over Florida a couple of weeks ago could have put the Bulldogs back in the conference title race. Despite that loss, the Georgia offense has been outstanding over the past 5 games, and Auburn certainly has been prone to giving up some points. This game will come down to Cam Newton though. No SEC team has had an answer for Newton's running ability, and I don't expect Georgia to have that answer. I think Cam gallops for a buck fifty in this one, and the Tigers win a shootout. If the allegations are getting to Newton, I don't think it will show on the field. Alabama needs a big bounce-back win this week against Mississippi State. Dan Mullen's turnaround in Starkville has been quick and drastic. The Bulldogs have won 6 in a row, and have some quality wins in that bunch. They play stong defense, and really do a nice job running the ball with qb Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard. Alabama has their own powerhouse running game with Ingram and Richardson, but the difference for Alabama is the decision-making of Greg McElroy and the playmaking ability of Julio Jones. With the game in Tuscaloosa, I think the Bulldogs keep it close, but it will be almost impossible to steal a win from the Crimson Tide. The final SEC game of the week has a lot at stake. Florida and South Carolina play for a chance to compete in the SEC title game. The matchup is in Gainesville, and the Gamecocks have never won in the Swamp in 12 tries. They are hoping to buck that trend on the running of Marcus Lattimore and the recieving of Alshon Jeffery. Florida certainly has some weapons of their own to counter South Carolina, as they utilize a 3 quarterback system with John Brantley as the drop back passer, Trey Burton as the wildcat running quarterback, and now Jordan Reed as a run-pass dual threat. Reed actually started the year as a tight end, but played extremely well in the quarterback position against Vanderbilt. The entire Gator offense has come together of late, especially as Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps get healthy. Florida is peaking at the right time, and South Carolina is swooning late as always, and I think the Gators win this game by at least two scores, and keep the Gamecocks seeking that first win in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State and TCU both got games this past week that were supposed to be tests for them, and neither team really broke a sweat. Boise dismantled Hawaii 42-7 in Boise, leaving Nevada and Fresno State as the only challenges left on their schedule. TCU, meanwhile, really impressed in throttling Utah, who had been undefeated and ranked fifth in the BCS standings. The big win for the Horned Frogs put them in great position for the title game, should Auburn or Oregon slip up. TCU still has not allowed multiple scores in a game in since September. Another win for the Frogs this weekend over SDSU would seal up the Mountain West title. Central Florida cemented their status as the top team in C-USA with a narrow win over a Houston team that made some poor decisions late in the game. The Knights would have to lose two of their final three games to open the door for ECU to take the division, and their final two games are against Tulane and Memphis, who have combined for one league win. The Sun Belt still has no bowl eligible teams, but the top two teams in the standings take each other on this week as FIU squares off against Troy. The MAC races are far from decided at this point, but the West is much closer to wrapped up after Northern Illinois rolled up 65 points on the Toledo Rockets. Toledo could still win the division, but NIU would have to drop its final two games. The East race is much more exciting with three teams knotted at 5-1 in conference play. Temple plays Ohio next Tuesday in an elimination game of sorts, and a win by the Bobcats could seal the division. If Temple wins, their season finale against Miami OH would be a shot at an outright division championship for the Owls or Redhawks. Miami simply needs to avoid a slip up against hapless Akron on Wednesday to stay in the race. Also worth noting in non-AQ play, Navy dropped a healthy 76 points on East Carolina last weekend, showing they have fully recovered from choking against Duke.
Other week 11 picks - NIU over Toledo (already happened Tue.), Miami OH over Bowling Green (already happened Wed.), East Carolina over UAB, TCU over San Diego State, Central Florida over Southern Miss, Utah over Notre Dame, Boise State over Idaho, Houston over Tulsa, Florida International over Troy, Nevada over Fresno State, BYU over Colorado State, Army over Kent State, Navy over Central Michigan, Air Force over New Mexico, Buffalo over Ball State, Western Michigan over Eastern Michigan, Marshall over Memphis, Arkansas State over Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State over North Texas, Rice over Tulane, Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, Florida Atlantic over UL-Lafayette, Utah State over San Jose State, Wyoming over UNLV, Temple over Ohio (Tues. 11/16), Miami OH over Akron (Wed. 11/17)
Week 11 outlook - Boise State should win easily, as Idaho gives up a ton of yards and the Broncos gain a ton. TCU has a tough matchup with SDSU this week, as the Aztecs feature a great young running back in Ronnie Hillman, but the Horned Frog defense is just too good. They are loaded on both sides of the ball, and at this point I would say that TCU is the best team in the country. I would have picked NIU and Miami OH both to win this week, but with the games already played it's tough to prove that. ECU should bounce back from getting shellacked by Navy with a conference win over UAB. Speaking of Navy, the Midshipmen should continue their offensive roll against mediocre Central Michigan. Army has a shot to get bowl eligible this week against Kent State, and I think they get the job done. At the other service academy, Air Force should have no issues with New Mexico State. A blowout should be the end result there. Notre Dame desperately needs to beat Utah if they want to get bowl eligible, but freshman Tommy Rees makes his first start for the Irish, and the pressure will get to him. Utah needs to avoid turnovers and falling into an early hole, because the Irish fans will keep the team going if they hang around in this one. Ultimately, I think Utah is too good with Matt Asiata and Jordan Wynn to get beat by the lowly Irish this week. Houston and Tulsa square off in a pivotal matchup in their division of Conference-USA, and I think Houston recovers from their failed upset bid against UCF and handles the Golden Hurricane. In the other C-USA division, the UCF Knights will pretty much lock up the division with a close win over the Southern Miss Eagles. I think FIU will take care of Troy to keep the Sun Belt without a bowl eligible team, and it would put the Panthers in first place. Nevada and Colin Kaepernick will use their pistol offense to perfection against Fresno State this week, and will win by about 2 scores. A couple of big MAC games take place in the middle of next week, and I've picked those as well. Miami of Ohio will win on Wednesday over a miserable Akron team with a big game from Zack Dysert at quarterback. On Tuesday night, I think Temple reminds everyone just how good they are right now with a win over the Ohio Bobcats to set up a division title game with Miami the following week.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - Still the strongest league. Florida and Georgia have been improving, while the west is still 5 deep in strong bowl teams, including 2 national title contenders.
2. Big Ten - The top 4 remain at one league loss, even though Iowa narrowly dodged an upset. There is just so much depth here with a likely 8 bowl eligible programs.
3. Pac-10 - There isn't a ton of depth here, but two elite programs in Oregon and Stanford put this league just a hair above the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - All of the upsets last weekend make the league look more mediocre. As bad as the ACC and Big East have been this year, being the fourth best power conference is a little embarrassing.
5. ACC - No one seems to want the lead in the atlantic division, and only Virginia Tech has been consistent in the coastal. Getting dangerously close to falling below the MWC.
6. Mountain West - Even with the Utes loss, TCU, Utah, and SDSU provide a very strong top 3 teams, and Air Force still has some credibility left.
7. WAC - It's still the Boise and Nevada show. Hawaii and Fresno had a rough weekend last week, but still provide better depth than C-USA.
8. Conference-USA - Central Florida has been fantastic so far, and while the league really isn't a lot better than the Big Least, UCF is closer to the top 25 than anyone in that so-called power conference.
9. Big East - If Pitt doesn't win out, an unranked team will be playing in a BCS bowl game for the first time in the system's history. I don't know what to expect from week to week in this league, so a Panther loss could happen.
10. MAC - There is some talent at the top, but after the 5 teams fighting for the division titles, there is nothing left here.
11. Sun Belt - People still don't care, but a win by Troy could get the Sun Belt a bowl eligible team before the Big East gets one.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 10-0 (prev. 2)
2. Oregon - 9-0 (1)
3. Boise State - 8-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 10-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 8-1 (8)
6. Ohio State - 8-1 (9)
7. Nebraska - 8-1 (7)
8. Stanford - 8-1 (10)
9. LSU - 8-1 (13)
10. Iowa - 7-2 (13)
11. Michigan St. - 9-1 (15)
12. Alabama - 7-2 (6)
13. Arkansas - 7-2 (17)
14. Oklahoma State - 8-1 (18)
15. Utah - 8-1 (5)
16. Virginia Tech - 7-2 (19)
17. Arizona - 7-2 (12)
18. Oklahoma - 7-2 (11)
19. Mississippi State - 7-2 (22)
20. Nevada - 8-1 (25)
21. Missouri - 7-2 (16)
22. Penn State - 6-3 (UNR)
23. Kansas State - 6-3 (UNR)
24. Florida - 6-3 (UNR)
25. South Carolina - 6-3 (20)
Dropped from the Rankings - Baylor (21), North Carolina State (23), Florida State (24)
Mike Locksley, New Mexico - His squad's win over Wyoming was their first of the season, and brought his coaching record to 2-19 in two seasons. Oh, and he also punched out an assistant coach.
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA - Neuheisel is just 14-19 in three years at UCLA, and has just a 7-16 mark in Pac-10 play. The fact that his team went in the tank after Kevin Prince's injury this year doesn't help.
Paul Wulff, Washington State - He's probably about done after a 4-31 start to his coaching career in Pullman. Unless he wins a couple down the stretch he will likely be gone.
Mark Richt, Georgia - The Bulldogs have rebounded from a slow start, but if they fail to get bowl eligible, it might not matter. Richt's track record of success might give him one reprieve if they do end up 5-7 this year.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan - Rodriguez has had a very interesting 3 years in Ann Arbor, starting 3-9 his first year, then opening year two at 4-0 before dropping 7 of 8 to close that season. So far in year three, the Wolverines are 6-3 and have gotten bowl eligible, but a 7-5 finish would hardly keep Rodriguez totally safe. The biggest safety net Rodriguez has is that all of the offensive personnel were recruited for his system.
Bill Lynch, Indiana - Went to a bowl game in his first season at Indiana, and has only won 2 conference games in the three years since.
Butch Davis, North Carolina - Davis has done a commendable job keeping this squad together despite a serious cheating scandal that got many of his best players suspended, but the fact that the scandal occurred under his watch might get him ousted anyway.
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest - Grobe has always been good at getting the most out of his players, especially when they went to the Orange Bowl in 2006, but it has been a downward spiral since. This year's Deacs have bottomed out, currently sitting at 2-7, and they are 112th out of 120 FBS teams in points allowed per game at 38.8.
Now let's look at the conference races and this week's upcoming matchups:
ACC -
Last week, the ACC was full of surprises. The atlantic division became a wide open race between NC State, Clemson, Florida State, and Maryland thanks to Clemson taking down the Wolfpack and the other two losing to coastal division teams. Clemson must be kicking themselves at this point for their loss to Boston College. If they would have won that game, this would already be a 4-way tie, and Clemson has beaten two of the other three and has Florida State this week. It's crazy to think that the Tigers can go 3-0 against the other three teams in the race and still need help to win the division and get a shot at the ACC title. As it stands, Clemson needs to win out, and the winner of the NC State-Maryland game must lose one more game, most likely NC State to North Carolina or Maryland to FSU. There are a lot of scenarios right now that can determine this thing, but it seems like the Tigers are the most talented team of the bunch, and have the most work to do to get the division crown. NC State has the easiest route to the title, needing to win out against the weakest remaining schedule of anyone in the race. Things are much clearer in the Coastal division, where Virginia Tech is in total control and can all but sew up the division with a win over North Carolina. The Tar Heels won't go down easy, especially after the performance they put on against Florida State last week. It seemed UNC was out of gas after falling to Miami badly, and squeaking by William & Mary, but they showed they still have plenty left in the tank. Miami isn't quite eliminated from the race, but they really need Jacory Harris back. It took a last minute touchdown to get past Maryland this past week, and fill-in quarterback Stephen Morris really struggled until that point. For Virginia Tech to lose the division title, they have to lose two of their remaining games with UNC, Miami, and Virginia.
ACC week 11 picks - Boston College over Duke, North Carolina State over Wake Forest, Maryland over Virginia, Virginia Tech over North Carolina, Clemson over Florida State, Georgia Tech over Miami
Week 11 outlook - Duke is finally starting to play some solid football, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They've put up back-to-back nice wins over Navy and Virginia and dropped 89 combined points in the two games. Boston College has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference though, especially over the last month. Look for the Eagles to slow down Duke's passing attack enough to pull off the victory. The NC State Wolfpack is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Clemson last week, but they get the worst defense in the league this weekend to help fix that heartbreak. Russell Wilson and the 'Pack will likely reach 40+ points without breaking a sweat in this easy win. Maryland is entering a must-win game against the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend. A victory keeps them tied atop the atlantic division. Virginia came up with a big win over Miami a couple weeks ago, but followed that up with a bad loss to Duke. Maryland isn't a great team despite a strong overall record, but they are better than the Cavs and should win, even in Charlottesville. Miami got things back on track against Maryland late, but Georgia Tech is a tougher all-around team. Jacory Harris is still out, and Georgia Tech can pressure the quarterback a little bit. Without Damian Berry to spark the running game, it will put the burden on Graig Cooper to have success running the ball to keep Stephen Morris upright. Miami has a sensational defense that should at least slow down GT's triple option running game, but the 'Canes have to score some points to win. I think Tech comes out on top over the beat up Miami offense in a low scorer, somewhere around 19-17. Virginia Tech had a bit of a scare last week against Georgia Tech, and now gets a tough North Carolina team trying to derail their 7-game winning streak. Tyrod Taylor has done a great job leading the offense after a tough first two games, and running back Darren Evans has been solid as well. UNC has an unsettled running back situation, and Virginia Tech will likely put a lot of pressure on that Carolina offense in this one. They have made some very good quarterbacks look bad, and Tyler Yates will likely be the next opposing signal-caller to struggle against the Hokies. The key for UNC to stay in the game will be limiting turnovers and hitting big plays against a D that has given up a few of them. I like the Hokies by a touchdown in this one though. In the final ACC contest of the week, Clemson and Florida State square off in Tallahassee in a pivotal atlantic division clash. Both of these teams have had strong balanced offenses, but with Andre Ellington ailing for Clemson, and Christian Ponder banged up for the 'Noles, whichever team can maintain that balance despite the injuries will likely win this one. Both of these teams need to win to remain in the hunt for the ACC title, but I think Ponder's injuries continue to slow FSU down. Clemson will unleash explosive end Da'Quan Bowers on Ponder this Saturday, and the result should be a Tiger win. It won't be a rout, but i think Clemson stays alive in the race for now.
Big East -
Week 10 in the Big East was yet another chance for the teams to run away from the top 25 rather than towards it. West Virginia fell from the rankings a few weeks ago, but Syracuse was creeping towards it. Of course, the Orange lost the second people started to believe they were decent. I haven't successfully picked the winner of a Syracuse game in about a month, and I have no clue if I will do so this week. With 'Cuse's loss, the Pitt Panthers are no longer just in front of the Big East, they are running away with it. At 3-0, the Panthers have a two game lead on the entire conference, and no one behind them is good enough to offer real competition. The Panthers will likely win out, but West Virginia and South Florida will offer some resistance. If that happens, the Panthers will without a doubt be ranked at year's end and will not look quite as foolish in a BCS game. South Florida and Louisville have been getting themselves together of late, and their matchup against each other could put the winner in position for a run at second place.
Big East week 11 picks - Pittsburgh over UConn, West Virginia over Cincinnati, Louisville over South Florida, Syracuse over Rutgers
Week 11 outlook - Zach Frazer has been an upgrade at quarterback for the Huskies over Cody Endres and Michael Box, and the team pulled off a win over West Virginia with Frazer in there. Unfortunately for UConn, Pitt is absolutely rolling right now, and the Pitt backfield duo of Dion Lewis and Ray Graham will be too much for the Huskies to stop. Pitt should roll by two scores. In Morgantown, it will be a question of which unit will be more inept, the Cincinnati defense or the West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers have a heck of a playmaker in Noel Devine, but he doesn't seem to make enough plays in the red zone with only 4 rushing scores in 8 games. I've been burned by believing in Cincinnati earlier in the year, and I think the sieve like Cincy defense gives up just enough to lose to West Virginia in this one. In the South Florida-Louisville game, two teams are squaring off while playing their best football of the year. Bilal Powell is over a thousand yards for the Cardinals and they are coming off a huge win over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. South Florida, meanwhile, has won two straight over Cincy and Rutgers, and put up two of their 3 highest point totals against an FBS foe this season in those games. Moise Plancher and B.J. Daniels have led the charge for the Bulls, but this next game should be a good one. I think the raucous crowd at Papa John's Stadium will be enough of a boost to the Louisville defense to slow down the Bulls in this one. Look for two touchdowns out of Bilal Powell in another strong game, and a close win over South Florida. In the other Big East game this week, Rutgers and Syracuse look to get back on track after tough losses last week. I'm gonna give Syracuse another chance this week. I think the Orange will do a great job af bouncing back from the loss to Louisville. Rutgers is a tough squad, but freshman qb Chas Dodd still has some things to figure out, and Syracuse's defense will not let Mohammed Sanu and the "Wild Knight" formation beat them. I like 'Cuse in another close Big East showdown.
Big 12 -
The Big 12 certainly had the most topsy-turvy week 10 in the college football world. The race for the south division title appears to be wide open all of a sudden with losses by Baylor and Oklahoma, and a recent winning streak by Texas A&M. About the only teams that appear out of the race are Texas and Texas Tech. That's a pretty steep drop for a Texas team that was ranked number 4 in the preseason. Oklahoma State has the most control of the division, but they travel to Austin this week and host the Sooners to close the season. The north division was almost equally wild if only Iowa State had converted the two-pointer to beat Nebraska. If the Huskers had gone down, Iowa State would actually lead the north at 4-2 while Nebraska and Missouri would each be 3-2. With the narrow win, the Cornhukers have just about wrapped up the division, and a win over lowly Kansas this weekend will secure their place in the Big 12 title game. Little has been certain in this conference the past few weeks, and more upsets are likely before the season is done.
Big 12 week 11 picks - Missouri over Kansas State, Iowa State over Colorado, Nebraska over Kansas, Oklahoma State over Texas
Week 11 outlook - Colorado is in too much turmoil as a team this week after collapsing and allowing a 28-point comeback to Kansas and losing head coach Dan Hawkins. I don't expect a focused team on Saturday, and the improved Iowa State Cyclones will take care of Colorado, even in Boulder. Kansas should be flying high after their historic comeback over the Buffs last week. Unfortunately for Kansas, that magic won't continue this week, especially with T-Magic Taylor Martinez back for Nebraska. The Jayhawks didn't follow up their upset win over Georgia Tech with any other strong performances, and they won't follow up this win very well either. Nebraska is just too good to be stopped in this one. Big Red wins by at least 3 touchdowns. Missouri finally learned how difficult life on the road can be as they have dropped two straight games away from Columbia. The most recent loss was to a Texas Tech team that really shouldn't have been able to beat the Tigers. Mizzou now draws a Kansas State team that was up on Texas a week ago 37-0 before taking their foot off the gas pedal. Lucky for Missouri, they get to go back home for this one. They have been impressive at home with wins over Oklahoma and San Diego State. Kansas State beat Texas with a very one dimensional attack, and Missouri's defense will not allow that to happen to them. I think Blaine Gabbert gets the offense rolling again, and the Tiger defense slows down Daniel Thomas and K-State just enough to pull off the win. Oklahoma State plays in the most important Big 12 game of the week against Texas. The Longhorns are collapsing fast. There are no guarantees that Texas will even get to a bowl game, as they have to beat either Oklahoma State or Texas A&M to get there. They allowed Kansas State to roll up a 37-point lead last week, and the Cowboys have a much better offense than the Wildcats. There is no one in the Texas secondary that can contain Justin Blackmon, and if they double-team him, Weeden will find all of the other weapons in his arsenal. Kendall Hunter is too good a runner for the Longhorns to not leave seven in the box, and as a result Texas will have to pick their poison between the ground game and passing game, and no matter which they choose, it won't end well. I like the Cowboys to win by multiple scores in Austin.
Big Ten -
While there weren't a whole lot of season-changing games on the slate last weekend in the Big Ten, it didn't mean the league was devoid of any excitement. If Indiana had finished off their improbable upset of Iowa, that might have been season-altering in the Big Ten, but it was not to be. Demarlo Belcher simply couldn't hang on to Ben Chappell's pass as he fell to the ground in the end zone, allowing Iowa to hold on to a share of first in the conference. If that game wasn't exciting enough, the showdown in Ann Arbor was an instant classic. Neither team could play a lick of defense, which made for some explosive offense in a game that was tied at 31 by halftime, and 45 at the end of regulation. The teams continued to trade touchdowns in overtime until a two point conversion by the Wolverines proved to be the deciding factor. That score came after a tipped and bobbled pass on fourth down in the second overtime found Junior Hemingway for a touchdown. The game really was exhilirating to watch, unless you were an Illinois fan. Around the rest of the conference, Michigan State and Wisconsin both won easily to keep the title picture a little foggy, and Joe Paterno got his 400th career win after the Nittany Lions overcame a 21-0 defecit against Northwestern. It was the 2nd time Northwestern has lost a game after leading by at least 17 points, and they only have 3 losses all year. As far as the conference title race is concerned, there are still 4 teams with their BCS bowl hopes very much alive, but almost all of them need some other teams among the four to trip up at some point. They all have possible stumbling blocks ahead as OSU takes on PSU, Iowa and Michigan, Iowa still has Northwestern and OSU, MSU still faces Penn State, and Wisconsin still has to survive Michigan in the Big House and Northwestern in Wisconsin. Anything is still possible in this race.
Big Ten week 11 picks - Iowa over Northwestern, Wisconsin over Indiana, Illinois over Minnesota, Michigan over Purdue, Ohio State over Penn State
Week 11 outlook - Only a couple of tough games to predict this week here, as Wisconsin won't allow Indiana to hang around against them this week as the Hoosiers did against Iowa. Even without John Clay, the Badgers ground game with James White and Montee Ball should still dominate. Indiana's offense is far too one-dimensional to be a real threat to the Badgers this week, and Wisconsin will win by 2-3 scores. The Fighting Illini need to regroup on the defensive side of the ball and get over the psychological hangover from the loss in Ann Arbor, but they are a much better team than the Gophers. Look for Nate Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure to run all over Minnesota, and who knows, maybe Nate will find Leshoure on that same wheel route that has resulted in three wide open touchdowns the last two weeks. Illinois should look a little rough early on in this one, but should wind up way ahead at the final gun. Michigan gets an easier matchup this week as they travel to Purdue. Michigan's offense has been pretty much unstoppable against even some solid defenses, and Purdue will certainly be the next D they carve up. The question is how many stops the Wolverines will be able to make. Luckily for Michigan, Purdue is down to their third-string quarterback Sean Robinson, and the offense has really struggled the last couple of games with him in. Normally, the Michigan defense cures whatever ails a struggling offense, but I expect Michigan to make enough stops to make this their easiest win since the Bowling Green game in week 4. Iowa travels to Evanston this week to take on Northwestern, which is a team that has actually had great success against the Hawkeyes. The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings, including stunning the then 4th ranked Hawkeyes last season. Iowa will be looking for a little revenge, and with Adam Robinson likely back, they will have the tools to get that vengeance. Robinson will help Iowa to control time of possession, and keep the ball away from Dan Persa, Jeremy Ebert and the rest of a very efficient Wildcat offense. Northwestern needs to play a full 60 minutes to hang with the Hawkeyes, and even if they hang around, I still think Iowa will win. I would be surprised if the final margin is greater than 10 points though. This week's big-time Big Ten showdown is between Ohio State and Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. The odds are stacked against the Nittany Lions, as only two of JoePa's 400 career wins have come at the Horseshoe, and only one in the last 30 years. The Buckeyes are the more talented team right now, as Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Saine, and Daniel Herron will be able to frustrate PSU's run defense all day. Matt McGloin has been a huge upgrade over Rob Bolden for Penn State, as he makes good decisions and he makes them quickly, which Bolden did not. That upgrade won't matter against a great defense like Ohio State's. The Buckeyes will slow down the Nittany Lions just enough to win another one over Paterno in Columbus.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 continues to be the easiest league in the country to predict. The bad teams play bad, the good teams play good (okay they play well), and the conference race is pretty clear cut. Oregon pretty much has the conference title and automatic BCS berth in their pocket right now, needing to win two of their final three games to sew up the title. Cal looks like an easy win, and Arizona and Oregon State are both flawed enough to fall to the Ducks as well. Stanford looks to have a very strong shot to go to a BCS bowl as long as they don't lose another game, and Oregon State is the only team currently in the top half of the Pac-10 the Cardinal has yet to play. Everyone else appears to be playing for consolation bowl games. If Arizona can upset Oregon, things will get a little more interesting, but a lot more would have to happen to allow someone other than the Cardinal or Ducks into the BCS. Oregon still remains alive for the National Championship, and Stanford certainly boosted their at-large BCS profile by dismantling Arizona.
Pac-10 week 11 picks - Oregon State over Washington State, Stanford over Arizona State, Oregon over California, Arizona over USC
Week 11 outlook - Oregon State is an easy pick, as they will get Jaquizz Rodgers and the offense back on track and keep Wazzu winless against FBS foes. Cal has a slight glimmer of hope against Oregon in that they haven't lost a game at home, and even average winning there by a robust 39 points per game. A couple of issues with reading too much into that: Oregon is easily the best team the Golden Bears have welcomed to Berkeley this year, and Kevin Riley was under center for all four Cal wins. This Saturday, it will be Brock Mansion taking the snaps, and Oregon feasts on inexperienced qbs with that opportunistic defense. Cal should be a mess again this week and should fall by a wide margin. Something in the ballpark of 56-10 wouldn't surprise me. Stanford showed me last weekend that they are able to take care of any opponent left on their schedule after a very impressive win over the Wildcats. Arizona State is not nearly as tough a challenge, and although ASU's athletic linebackers should make it hard for Stanford to get the ground game going, Andrew Luck is still one of the best passers in the country. The Cardinal aren't one to run up the score, so I expect them to win by about two scores. USC at Arizona is the best Pac-10 matchup this week, and the story will be the quarterbacks. Foles has had a week to shake off the rust, and he should be ready for a USC secondary that has struggled at times this year. The offense for the Wildcats has to be better this week, and use Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby in the running game to keep the Trojans guessing. Matt Barkley has made real strides this season, and USC can score, but the one-dimensional nature of that Trojan offense should be enough of an edge for Arizona to get the home win in a good game.
SEC -
There wasn't a lot to learn in the SEC this week on the field, as most of the conference's teams played tune up games against lesser foes. There was plenty of drama off the field with the mounting Cam Newton scandal, and the fact that Les Miles was caught on camera eating grass at Tiger Stadium Saturday. Maybe that's where he gets his magic touch for pulling off one miracle win after another. This week wasn't quite as miraculous as the Tennessee or Florida games, but the gambler of Baton Rouge did make another amazingly gutsy call late in this one. On a fourth-and-1 play from inside the Bama 30-yard line, Miles called a reverse to the wide receiver that went for 23 yards to set up the winning touchdown. The game knocked Alabama out of the national title conversation and thrust LSU into it as the top ranked one-loss team. There is some sentiment out there that if Oregon and Auburn both lose, a once beaten SEC squad should still get a title bid over Boise and TCU. I disagree with that idea, but some people definitely believe it. In the other marquee SEC mtchup, Arkansas throttled South Carolina who has lost two of three since beating Alabama. The Gamecocks now fall into a tie with Florida for the east division lead, and the two meet on Saturday to decide who goes to the conference title game. The west still has a couple weeks before all is settled.
SEC week 11 picks - Kentucky over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Georgia, Arkansas over UTEP, LSU over UL-Monroe, Alabama over Mississippi St., Ole Miss over Tennessee, Florida over South Carolina
Week 11 outlook - Les Miles and LSU won't need any magic this week against UL-Monroe. Their quarterback duo played well against 'Bama, and could use some more valuable game experience to get ready for Arkansas. Arkansas, meanwhile, also gets a tune-up this week to get ready for that showdown with the Tigers. Ryan Mallett should have a field day against UTEP even without Greg Childs, and even Knile Davis should have another strong game. Ole Miss should be able to top the Vols, but this will be a tight game if Jeremiah Masoli doesn't play. Ole Miss has more weapons on offense, but they don't always put them to good use. I still like the Rebels in a squeaker. The wheels are starting to come off for Vanderbilt down the stretch, as Florida took them apart last week. Kentucky isn't Florida, but Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb can do some damage of their own. Expect Kentucky to win by about 20 points. Auburn gets a trap game against Georgia this week. Georgia has been a different team since getting AJ Green back from his suspension, and a win over Florida a couple of weeks ago could have put the Bulldogs back in the conference title race. Despite that loss, the Georgia offense has been outstanding over the past 5 games, and Auburn certainly has been prone to giving up some points. This game will come down to Cam Newton though. No SEC team has had an answer for Newton's running ability, and I don't expect Georgia to have that answer. I think Cam gallops for a buck fifty in this one, and the Tigers win a shootout. If the allegations are getting to Newton, I don't think it will show on the field. Alabama needs a big bounce-back win this week against Mississippi State. Dan Mullen's turnaround in Starkville has been quick and drastic. The Bulldogs have won 6 in a row, and have some quality wins in that bunch. They play stong defense, and really do a nice job running the ball with qb Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard. Alabama has their own powerhouse running game with Ingram and Richardson, but the difference for Alabama is the decision-making of Greg McElroy and the playmaking ability of Julio Jones. With the game in Tuscaloosa, I think the Bulldogs keep it close, but it will be almost impossible to steal a win from the Crimson Tide. The final SEC game of the week has a lot at stake. Florida and South Carolina play for a chance to compete in the SEC title game. The matchup is in Gainesville, and the Gamecocks have never won in the Swamp in 12 tries. They are hoping to buck that trend on the running of Marcus Lattimore and the recieving of Alshon Jeffery. Florida certainly has some weapons of their own to counter South Carolina, as they utilize a 3 quarterback system with John Brantley as the drop back passer, Trey Burton as the wildcat running quarterback, and now Jordan Reed as a run-pass dual threat. Reed actually started the year as a tight end, but played extremely well in the quarterback position against Vanderbilt. The entire Gator offense has come together of late, especially as Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps get healthy. Florida is peaking at the right time, and South Carolina is swooning late as always, and I think the Gators win this game by at least two scores, and keep the Gamecocks seeking that first win in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State and TCU both got games this past week that were supposed to be tests for them, and neither team really broke a sweat. Boise dismantled Hawaii 42-7 in Boise, leaving Nevada and Fresno State as the only challenges left on their schedule. TCU, meanwhile, really impressed in throttling Utah, who had been undefeated and ranked fifth in the BCS standings. The big win for the Horned Frogs put them in great position for the title game, should Auburn or Oregon slip up. TCU still has not allowed multiple scores in a game in since September. Another win for the Frogs this weekend over SDSU would seal up the Mountain West title. Central Florida cemented their status as the top team in C-USA with a narrow win over a Houston team that made some poor decisions late in the game. The Knights would have to lose two of their final three games to open the door for ECU to take the division, and their final two games are against Tulane and Memphis, who have combined for one league win. The Sun Belt still has no bowl eligible teams, but the top two teams in the standings take each other on this week as FIU squares off against Troy. The MAC races are far from decided at this point, but the West is much closer to wrapped up after Northern Illinois rolled up 65 points on the Toledo Rockets. Toledo could still win the division, but NIU would have to drop its final two games. The East race is much more exciting with three teams knotted at 5-1 in conference play. Temple plays Ohio next Tuesday in an elimination game of sorts, and a win by the Bobcats could seal the division. If Temple wins, their season finale against Miami OH would be a shot at an outright division championship for the Owls or Redhawks. Miami simply needs to avoid a slip up against hapless Akron on Wednesday to stay in the race. Also worth noting in non-AQ play, Navy dropped a healthy 76 points on East Carolina last weekend, showing they have fully recovered from choking against Duke.
Other week 11 picks - NIU over Toledo (already happened Tue.), Miami OH over Bowling Green (already happened Wed.), East Carolina over UAB, TCU over San Diego State, Central Florida over Southern Miss, Utah over Notre Dame, Boise State over Idaho, Houston over Tulsa, Florida International over Troy, Nevada over Fresno State, BYU over Colorado State, Army over Kent State, Navy over Central Michigan, Air Force over New Mexico, Buffalo over Ball State, Western Michigan over Eastern Michigan, Marshall over Memphis, Arkansas State over Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State over North Texas, Rice over Tulane, Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, Florida Atlantic over UL-Lafayette, Utah State over San Jose State, Wyoming over UNLV, Temple over Ohio (Tues. 11/16), Miami OH over Akron (Wed. 11/17)
Week 11 outlook - Boise State should win easily, as Idaho gives up a ton of yards and the Broncos gain a ton. TCU has a tough matchup with SDSU this week, as the Aztecs feature a great young running back in Ronnie Hillman, but the Horned Frog defense is just too good. They are loaded on both sides of the ball, and at this point I would say that TCU is the best team in the country. I would have picked NIU and Miami OH both to win this week, but with the games already played it's tough to prove that. ECU should bounce back from getting shellacked by Navy with a conference win over UAB. Speaking of Navy, the Midshipmen should continue their offensive roll against mediocre Central Michigan. Army has a shot to get bowl eligible this week against Kent State, and I think they get the job done. At the other service academy, Air Force should have no issues with New Mexico State. A blowout should be the end result there. Notre Dame desperately needs to beat Utah if they want to get bowl eligible, but freshman Tommy Rees makes his first start for the Irish, and the pressure will get to him. Utah needs to avoid turnovers and falling into an early hole, because the Irish fans will keep the team going if they hang around in this one. Ultimately, I think Utah is too good with Matt Asiata and Jordan Wynn to get beat by the lowly Irish this week. Houston and Tulsa square off in a pivotal matchup in their division of Conference-USA, and I think Houston recovers from their failed upset bid against UCF and handles the Golden Hurricane. In the other C-USA division, the UCF Knights will pretty much lock up the division with a close win over the Southern Miss Eagles. I think FIU will take care of Troy to keep the Sun Belt without a bowl eligible team, and it would put the Panthers in first place. Nevada and Colin Kaepernick will use their pistol offense to perfection against Fresno State this week, and will win by about 2 scores. A couple of big MAC games take place in the middle of next week, and I've picked those as well. Miami of Ohio will win on Wednesday over a miserable Akron team with a big game from Zack Dysert at quarterback. On Tuesday night, I think Temple reminds everyone just how good they are right now with a win over the Ohio Bobcats to set up a division title game with Miami the following week.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - Still the strongest league. Florida and Georgia have been improving, while the west is still 5 deep in strong bowl teams, including 2 national title contenders.
2. Big Ten - The top 4 remain at one league loss, even though Iowa narrowly dodged an upset. There is just so much depth here with a likely 8 bowl eligible programs.
3. Pac-10 - There isn't a ton of depth here, but two elite programs in Oregon and Stanford put this league just a hair above the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - All of the upsets last weekend make the league look more mediocre. As bad as the ACC and Big East have been this year, being the fourth best power conference is a little embarrassing.
5. ACC - No one seems to want the lead in the atlantic division, and only Virginia Tech has been consistent in the coastal. Getting dangerously close to falling below the MWC.
6. Mountain West - Even with the Utes loss, TCU, Utah, and SDSU provide a very strong top 3 teams, and Air Force still has some credibility left.
7. WAC - It's still the Boise and Nevada show. Hawaii and Fresno had a rough weekend last week, but still provide better depth than C-USA.
8. Conference-USA - Central Florida has been fantastic so far, and while the league really isn't a lot better than the Big Least, UCF is closer to the top 25 than anyone in that so-called power conference.
9. Big East - If Pitt doesn't win out, an unranked team will be playing in a BCS bowl game for the first time in the system's history. I don't know what to expect from week to week in this league, so a Panther loss could happen.
10. MAC - There is some talent at the top, but after the 5 teams fighting for the division titles, there is nothing left here.
11. Sun Belt - People still don't care, but a win by Troy could get the Sun Belt a bowl eligible team before the Big East gets one.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 10-0 (prev. 2)
2. Oregon - 9-0 (1)
3. Boise State - 8-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 10-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 8-1 (8)
6. Ohio State - 8-1 (9)
7. Nebraska - 8-1 (7)
8. Stanford - 8-1 (10)
9. LSU - 8-1 (13)
10. Iowa - 7-2 (13)
11. Michigan St. - 9-1 (15)
12. Alabama - 7-2 (6)
13. Arkansas - 7-2 (17)
14. Oklahoma State - 8-1 (18)
15. Utah - 8-1 (5)
16. Virginia Tech - 7-2 (19)
17. Arizona - 7-2 (12)
18. Oklahoma - 7-2 (11)
19. Mississippi State - 7-2 (22)
20. Nevada - 8-1 (25)
21. Missouri - 7-2 (16)
22. Penn State - 6-3 (UNR)
23. Kansas State - 6-3 (UNR)
24. Florida - 6-3 (UNR)
25. South Carolina - 6-3 (20)
Dropped from the Rankings - Baylor (21), North Carolina State (23), Florida State (24)
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