Well, we've hit the middle of the college basketball season, and although a lot can happen between now and the tournament selection show in March, things have started to shake out in the national landscape. There are a few obvious storylines to follow, such as the dominance of the top 25 by the Big East conference and the ridiculous scoring exploits of BYU guard Jimmer Fredette. Today, however, I would like to point out some things that aren't so obvious. Let's take a look at some of the most underrated and overrated players suiting up for NCAA division I teams:
Five of the most underrated players in college basketball:
1. Jeremy Lamb, UConn: This kid has been a huge spark for the Huskies while Kemba Walker hogs all the national attention. The 6'5" wingman has really started to hit his stride over the past few games and gives UConn another scoring threat alongside Walker to keep defenses honest. On top of his scoring ability, Lamb really uses his length well to bother opponents on the defensive end of the court and also gets active on the glass accounting for nearly 5 boards a game on the year. As his low post moves continue to come along, UConn will become more dynamic on the offensive end, as evidenced by the nearly 17 points a game Lamb has scored over the last 4 games. In that stretch, the Huskies have beaten Villanova, Marquette and Tennesee.
2. Reeves Nelson, UCLA: The UCLA Bruins have not exactly completed their return to the levels they were at a few years ago when they made 3 consecutive final four trips, but they do seem to be on the right track. After opening the season 3-4 with losses to Kansas and Villanova that are hard to blame them for and losses to Montana and VCU that they can be blamed for, the Bruins have won 10 of their last 12 with Nelson leading the way. Nelson leads UCLA in points and rebounds and is an absolute firecracker on offense. He can lead the fastbreak, hit outside jumpers, and yet still be a physical force in the low blocks. His presence has gone a long way toward returning UCLA to the tournament, and he deserves more credit for it.
3. Draymond Green, Michigan State: The Spartans' season hasn't gone quite as well as they would have hoped to this point with seven tallies in the loss column, but it could be quite a few more if not for this big fellow. Spartan fans will tell you that this guy is the general out there for MSU, not Kalin Lucas, and he constantly makes plays with the game on the line. He has a solid mid-range jumper, he's a great passer for a big man, and he's a very unselfish player. He almost single-handedly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat twice against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Green does a little bit of everything for MSU with averages of 13 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. Throw in that he's hitting 43% of his threes, and it's hard to find a hole in Green's game. He does shoot just 64% from the foul line, but he hits them when they count as evidenced by 17/19 free throw shooting in those games against the Badgers and Wildcats with most of those shots in late-game pressure situations.
4. Gilbert Brown, Pittsburgh: Most of what Gilbert Brown does for the no. 2 Pitt Panthers gets lost in the shuffle of the great play of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker in the backcourt and the low post show that Gary McGhee often puts on, but Brown is just as important to Pitt's success as any of those guys. Brown came into Pitt as a highly touted recruit, but his career has been derailed by injuries, but when watching him play this season, it is clear to see what kind of athlete Brown is. Brown doesn't lead the Panthers in any statistical category, but he makes an impact in just about all of them. It seems as though Brown is finally fully healthy, and his boost in numbers of one point, one assist and a rebound and a half per game, as well as increased free throw and three point percentages and a drastically improved assist-to-turnover ratio clearly demonstrate this. If Pitt finally breaks through to the final four, you can be sure a major contribution will be made by Gilbert Brown.
5. Keaton Nankivil, Wisconsin: No one on the Badgers really gets too much notice, save perhaps Mike Bruesewitz for his giant mop of red hair that flops around on his head while playing, but this team is full of solid players not getting enough attention. Keaton Nankivil is certainly one of them. While his overall numbers on the season of 9 1/2 points and 5 boards a game don't jump off the page at you, he has been much better than that in conference play. Nankovil has averaged 13 points per game against Big Ten foes while shooting over 50% from beyond the arc in those contests. Nankovil is a sound fundamental player who, despite standing 6-8, has a great long distance shot to draw defenders to him and open things up for the Badgers' top scorers, Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor.
Others receiving consideration: Nathan Walkup (Texas A&M), Alec Burks (Colorado), Jordan Williams (Maryland)
5 of the most overrated college basketball players:
1. Perry Jones, Baylor: Jones will be the start of a theme amongst the overrated players; most of them are freshmen. Jones is talented to be sure, but many people are talking about this young man as if he is almost certainly the top pick in next year's NBA draft. I have seen a couple Baylor games this year, and I don't see what the scouts are talking about. Jones certainly has size and a decent touch around the basket as well as some solid rebounding numbers, but he is extremely unpolished in the low post, as most young bigs are. Is it really going to benefit Jones to get drafted into the league and sit on the bench while developing his game? NBA history is littered with high draft picks that were selected mainly for size and potential that just never developed into the players they were supposed to, and I see nothing in Jones to make me believe that can't happen to him.
2. Durrell Summers, Michigan State: While Draymond Green has been making strides forward despite MSU's struggles, Summers has been regressing. Despite the team losing starters Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen this past offseason who combined for about 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists a game, Summers has failed to fill any of the void created by their departures. Durrell's points have gone up about 2.5 per game, but he has had fewer assists and rebounds per game than last season, even though his role should have increased due to attrition. Making his season look even worse is the fact that his efficiency numbers have almost all gotten worse. He is hitting a better clip of his triples, but his overall field goal percentage is down as is his free throw percentage, and he is sporting his worst assist-to-turnover ratio and lowest average points per shot attempt of his career. If these numbers don't rebound and improve soon, MSU may be in real danger of not making the big dance for the first time in 14 years.
3. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina: Everyone assumed with the addition of this top-rated freshman that the Tar Heels would reclaim their spot among the nation's elite, but that certainly hasn't happened. The Tar Heels do seem to be headed to the big dance fairly easily, but that has much more been a result of the improvement of older Tar Heels like Tyler Zeller and John Henson. There have been several freshmen that have been more productive than Barnes to this point, but Barnes will eventually be a fine player. The biggest problem with Barnes to note is his poor shooting performance at just 37% from the field to date. A player with Barnes's size needs to be able to get to the inside and get some higher percentage shots, and until he does that more consistently, Barnes will continue to be overrated.
4. Brandon Knight, Kentucky: Knight, much like Barnes is a highly touted freshman playing on a very good team that should be a decent seed in the big dance. Knight is getting far too much of the credit for the Wildcats' success. He is scoring a lot of points, but as a point guard, it is just as important for him to protect the ball and create scoring opportunities for his talented young teammates like Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones. His 1.1 assist-to-tunover ratio leaves a lot to be desired from the youngster. By comparison, veteran teammate DeAndre Liggins has a 2-to-1 ratio, and he is more a shooting guard than true point. While Knight, like the other freshmen I rank as overrated has a lot of talent and great potential, he will have to develop into more of a true point guard as the season progresses if he wants the Wildcats to have great success in the tournament. In leading UK to the elite 8 last season, John Wall posted 3 more assists per game than Knight as well as a 1.6 A/T ratio while still leading the team in scoring. Knight needs to have that kind of balance to duplicate that March success.
5. Kemba Walker, Connecticut: I know, this seems ridiculous to list the great Kemba Walker as overrated. The guy has improved leaps and bounds from last year. He has hit several clutch game winners, and his 25 points a game have taken a huge chunk out of the void created by the losses of Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson, and Gavin Edwards. Despite all of that, this list is for guys who are overrated in terms of helping their teams to win as many games as possible. Kemba is extremely gifted and is having an absolutely amazing season, but he has a bad habit of being too selfish and not trusting his teammates enough to help out. While he needs to be agressive to remain as effective as he's been, he needs to do a better job of finding teammates once he draws the defense to himself. His shooting percentage cannot continue to be as bad as it's been in conference play. Since the start of Big East play, Kemba has shot under 40% in 6 out of the 9 games he's played, and only 50% or better once, against hapless DePaul. Add in the fact that Walker has attempted at least 16 shots in all of those games, and it's clear to see it leads to a lot of empty Husky possesions. If Walker can cut back on the agressive shooting just a little and get Oriakhi and Lamb just a little more involved, UConn has all the makings of a team that can make a deep run.
Others receiving consideration: Durand Scott (Miami FL), Josh Selby (Kansas), the entire Kansas State frontcourt
Those are some of the players that have caught my attention as the season has worn on, but we all know that basketball is a team game not won by individuals. The group cutting down the nets at the end of the tournament is always a complete unit that functions as one, and here are the most cohesive units so far this season.
The 5 best national title contenders:
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes put on a show on Tuesday night in an absolute rout over the Purdue Boilermakers that makes them the clear number one team in the land right now. The Buckeyes entire lineup is capable of dropping 20 points on you any given night, and that balance is what carries them. This team was incredible last year in earning a number 2 seed and advancing to the sweet 16 behind star Evan Turner. Turner is gone this season, but the rest of the starting lineup is back and they have added in three fantastic freshmen. Jared Sullinger is the best freshman in the country this year, and gives the Buckeyes a low-post scorer they didn't have last season with Dallas Lauderdale playing the 5 spot last year. Aaron Craft isn't nearly as heralded as Sullinger, but also fills a void from last year as a true point guard to run this team. Evan Turner handled point guard type duties last year from his small forward position. The rest of the starting lineup is made up of swingmen who can all handle the ball, shoot from distance and the mid-range, and can defend extremely well. Throw in another solid freshman in Deshaun Thomas and impressive low post defender, shot blocker, and rebounder Dallas Lauderdale coming in off the bench, and this team is absolutely loaded. If you double Sullinger in the low post, he'll kick it out to the many outstanding shooters, and if you don't, he'll drop 30 points on you. If the Buckeyes execute and hit shots, there isn't a team out there that can beat them. The biggest knock on them is a lack of depth, but this year's team actually gets 15 more minutes a game out of their bench than last year's, not to mention they foul less than just about any other team in the country, making foul trouble unlikely to be an achilles heel.
2. Kansas: The Jayhawks have an exceptional team that is loaded with veterans in the low post, namely the Morris twins, and a couple of upperclassmen that control the perimeter as well. Marcus and Markeiff Morris are both very impressive low post players on offense and very good rebounders. Marcus is the better scorer, but few teams boast as talented a frontcourt pair. Tyshawn Taylor is an exceptional defensive guard, but his offensive game is not up to the level of the graduated Sherron Collins. Tyrel Reed can certainly shoot the ball and makes plenty of smart plays and hustle plays, but lacks great size or strength. The real x-factor for the Jayhawks is freshman point guard Josh Selby. Outside of veteran Brady Morningstar, the Jayhawk bench is really undistinguished, and this team really needs Selby to be at his best to really make the push in the tournament that they're capable of. Selby can be a solid passer and an exceptional shooter, but he has been a nightmare in terms of focus and not making freshman mistakes both on and off the court. This team could be exiting in the second round again just as easily as they could be cutting down the nets as champs.
3. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are dangerous because they can kill you in a lot of ways. Gary McGhee is a tremendous body to throw around the block on both ends of the court, and he has some solid low post scoring ability. Forwards Nasir Robinson and Gilbert Brown are both good at slashing to the hoop to get easy buckets in close, with Brown's leaping ability getting him lay-ins over much taller defenders. Brown also has the ability to hit shots from the outside, making him a very tough matchup. The starting lineup is rounded out by two very impressive guards, Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker, both of whom can really handle the ball well and light up a defense from the outside. That group really creates an offense that can hurt you in a lot of ways, and they really execute very well, as anyone who watched them play Syracuse can attest to. They picked apart that 2-3 zone like they were at Cuse's practice watching it. The Panthers also play pretty solid defense, but their biggest advantage comes on the boards, where they rank 2nd in the nation. You have to shoot extremely well against this team, because you won't get many second chances on your possessions, and they are extremely efficient with theirs. Add in that the Panthers get a strong contribution from their bench with 4 other guys averaging at least 10 minutes and Travon Woodall over 20 and this team is short on weaknesses. Their biggest is free throw shooting outside of Gibbs, Wanamaker and Brown. The best strategy to attack this team is to slow down the game as Notre Dame did, and don't be shy about fouling anyone else on their roster than the 3 guys listed. But even to win like that, you have to shoot well yourself.
4. Texas: The Longhorns have got the best team they've had in years. Jordan Hamilton has become a scoring machine and Tristan Thompson is an absolute load in the low blocks. Dogus Balbay is a lockdown defender to put on the opposing point guard, and Gary Johnson is a solid low post player alongside Thompson. Throw in sweet shooting freshman Cory Joseph, and the contributions of sixth man J'Covan Brown, and Texas is a formidable team that can run with anybody. Their biggest asset is their athleticism, which they have used to run teams like Kansas and Texas A&M out of the gym in the last couple games. This team is just hitting its stride and can be very dangerous in March. The biggest weakness for this team is depth in the frontcourt. Should Thompson and Johnson be in foul trouble, Texas would be forced into a smaller lineup that could favor a team with good bigs.
5. Duke: The Blue Devils came into the season as the national frontrunner, and despite an upset loss at Florida State, they still must be considered a contender. Kyrie Irving's injury has been a major setback in Duke's season, but he will be back before the tournament which makes this team much more dangerous come March. Without Irving at the point, the team still has the explosive tandem of Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith in the backcourt, along with Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins trying to fill Irving's void. The place this team really has suffered is in the low post after the departure of Brian Zoubek. The Plumlee brothers are very talented, but really haven't displayed that talent often enough on the court. They are certainly vulnerable until Irving returns to teams with impressive low post players such as Maryland with Jordan Williams and North Carolina with Henson and Zeller.
Others deserving consideration: Villanova, San Diego State, Syracuse
Those teams look like the best bets to win the whole thing, but there are several teams that have been quietly going about their business, just waiting for the tournament to try and prove experts wrong. Here are a few teams that not everyone is talking about but they are certainly capable of playing with anyone in the country.
5 sure tournament teams that are flying under the radar:
1. Texas A&M: The Aggies don't do anything flashy, they aren't loaded with star players, and they don't care that most college hoops fans can't name anyone on the roster other than Khris Middleton. They do however, care about executing crisply. They do care about working hard at both ends of the floor. They do care about doing the little things that make the difference between winning and losing close games. A&M has only lost twice all year, and as long as they don't get caught up in the hoopla of being ranked highly in the polls, this team has a great shot of advancing to the elite 8 or even further. If that happens, more people will certainly know the names of Nathan Walkup, David Loubeau and Dash Harris, and the rest of the Aggies.
2. Wisconsin: Much like Texas A&M, Wisconsin goes about their business with little fanfare. They are extremely disciplined on offense, which is a staple of Bo Ryan teams. They are strong shooters and rebounders, and if you let this team get a lead late, say goodnight. The are tops in the nation from the free throw line at 82% as a team. Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor are the big time scorers, but Keaton Nankivil and a couple other Badgers are waiting for the D to focus on those two to make them pay. This team will likely run into a more talented team by around the sweet 16, but their bruising style of play always gives them a chance to beat those more talented teams.
3. Florida: It's difficult to say the Gators are flying under the radar after opening the season at number 11 in the coaches' poll, but they slumped early in the season and at one point fell out of the top 25. They suffered embarrassing losses to Central Florida and Jacksonville, but they have posted a couple impressive wins as well. They have really started to come together in SEC play, and they have a balanced team that can be dangerous. Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are a dangerous backcourt duo, and Chandler Parsons may be the best overall player on the team. Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin form an intimidating frontcourt, and that makes a starting lineup that can compete with just about anyone. They are unlikely to defeat any of the top Big East squads or OSU or Kansas, but they can certainly give them a dogfight. The Gators are very unlikely to give up in a game, which they demonstrated Tuesday night after nearly giving away a game to Georgia on the road before taking firm control in double overtime.
4. Missouri: This is all about the Tigers' style of play. There are very few teams that know how to get ready for the Mizzou "40 minutes of hell" gameplan. The Tigers use full court pressure on just about every possession, and if they force a turnover they push the ball in transition to try and score an easy bucket. The key to this year's Mizzou squad is that they are very disciplined in their half-court offense. Many people have the idea that this team plays at breakneck, reckless pace at all times, but that is simply their defensive philosophy. Things are different on offense. The Tigers are led by star guard Marcus Denmon, but this is a very deep team that throws a lot of capable bodies at you. The teams that really must beware of Missouri are those that really don't have a lot of depth like Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.
5. Notre Dame: It's hard to fly under the radar as a top 15 team that resides in the Big East, but 'Nova, 'Cuse, Pitt, and UConn steal most of the headlines from this very sound team. The Irish are driven by their ability to shoot the three, as four of their five starters are pretty good shooters. Tim Abromaitis, Carleton Scott, Ben Hansbrough (Tyler's brother), and Scott Martin are all capable of shooting from downtown. More than that, this team is loaded with smart players. Hansbrough showed that by dominating a Pitt team that kept switching on ball screens often leaving slow-footed Gary McGhee guarding the speedy Hansbrough who made him pay. This team isn't loaded with elite athletes, although Scott has pretty impressive athleticism, but they seem to have no ego. The team has great chemistry and play very unselfishly, and that trait can carry a solid team like this a long way in March.
Others deserving consideration: Washington, Brigham Young, Minnesota
As I noted earlier, there is still a lot of season left to be played and the tournament field is far from decided, but there are a lot of teams that need to be worried about where they stand in terms of their resume. With that in mind, I present you with some teams that would likely not make the tournament if the season ended today, but if they earn their way in could be very tough first and second round matchups for others.
5 dangerous teams on the outside looking in:
1. Colorado: The Buffs just can't seem to play consistently enough to pad their resume. They have had some nice wins over Oregon State, Indiana, Kansas State, and Missouri, as well as a near miss in an upset bid against Kansas, but they have several head scratching losses, as well. Alec Burks is a game-changing scorer that Colorado hasn't had since the Chauncey Billups days, and this team has shown an ability to hang with some very good teams. If they can find a way to get some consistency down the stretch and beat the teams they are supposed to and find another couple of upsets, Colorado could make life difficult on someone in the first round of the tournament.
2. Marquette: The Golden Eagles have had so many near misses in upset bids in conference play, it has to be frustrating. Marquette has lost 8 games this season, all to teams that were either ranked at the time, or are currently ranked. The average margin of defeat is about 4 points per game. While it's impressive that they've been so competitive against the likes of Duke, Notre Dame, UConn, Pittsburgh, and Wisconsin, they only have 2 victories over teams anywhere near the top 25. They have to add some signature wins to get into the dance. They have had some horrible chokes late in games, most notably blowing an 18-point lead in just over 5 minutes against Louisville. They do have some big games left on the schedule, but with a couple more near misses, it will be hard to see this team in the tourney. If they are able to make it to the tournament, the backcourt duo of Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom will make it a tough game for any foe they draw in round one. They haven't lost by more than 8 points all year.
3. Butler: The Bulldogs need to start doing some serious work soon, or else they will need to win the conference tournament to make sure they are going to the big dance. Sad for a team that came just a few inches on a half-court shot away from winning the national title last season, and returned most of that squad. I don't know if it's complacency or everyone in the league gunning for them, or a brutal nonconference schedule wearing them out, but the Bulldogs just don't look like the same team. Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored and Matt Howard are too good to continue to limp along at 6-3 in Horizon play. It's a little presumptuous to assume the Bulldogs will win the Horizon tournament, but if the do and go dancing, they won't be an easy out. They still play the same style that has wreaked havoc on higher seeds over the past decade when the Bulldogs have made the dance. They slow the game down, shoot the 3 well, and defend well. If you can execute that gameplan, it gives you a chance in most games.
4. UCLA: The Bruins still have to win the games they're supposed to find a way into the tournament, but they have really started to hit their stride led by Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson. In their terrible down year a season ago, UCLA really didn't have a true point guard and the offense really sputtered at times without someone in control of it. Lazeric Jones has stepped in and filled that void this season. Josh Smith is a very promising young big man with soft hands and nice touch at the hoop, but he needs to learn how to stay out of foul trouble. This can be a very dangerous team in the opening weekend of the tourney if they can get there and get the right matchup. This Bruin team is the only squad to beat BYU to date.
5. Georgia: Mark Fox really has done a nice job getting Georgia to be a strong basketball team for the first time since Jim Harrick was coaching them. The problem is that they are currently in the very tough SEC eastern division, and they are the only team in it with 3 conference losses. With the SEC being down this year, The Bulldogs can't afford to end up 5th or 6th in the east and still go dancing. They let what would have been a huge win slip away against Florida as they failed to foul Erving Walker at the end of the first overtime and instead let him heave up a 35-foot 3-pointer to tie the game again. They haven't had any really bad losses, but they need a couple more big wins to really make their case to the selection committee. They have a tremendous trio of scorers in Trey Thompkins in the low post, Gerald Robinson on the perimeter, and freakish athlete Trevor Lindsey from wherever he wants to score. They do a great job of rebounding but they do struggle at times to maintain focus on defense. If they can iron out a few kinks and pull out a couple big wins down the stretch, this could be a very intimidating first or second round foe.
Others deserving consideration: St. John's, Penn State, Old Dominion
Well I've looked at some of the elite teams in college hoops this season, as well as some very good teams not getting the national attention they deserve. I've also taken a look at a few teams that could be very scary draws in the NCAA tournament. . . . if they get there, but one group of teams I haven't looked at are those that have been incredibly disappointing so far this season. These teams came into the season eyeing deep tournament runs, but have really not made good on those high expectations. Here's a look at a few of those teams that should really consider paying back their season ticket holders.
5 biggest disappointments in college basketball this season:
1. Michigan State: I really question how Tom Izzo is sleeping at night these days. I can't imagine he's sleeping well. Then again, he could be coaching the Cleveland Cavaliers right now, and that has to give him a little relief. Normally I give Izzo's Spartan's the benefit of the doubt. They always play a brutal nonconference schedule and lose at least a few of those games before settling into conference play and being for the most part impressive. They normally have the occasional hiccup loss to a Penn State or an Iowa, but they normally wind up a decent seed that is battle tested for March. This season started same as any with the nonconference gauntlet, resulting in losses to powerhouse teams UConn, Texas, Duke, and Syracuse. Once conference play started, this team didn't look quite the same. They have scored wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin, but losses to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue have many questioning these Spartans. Throw in that lightning quick guard Korey Lucious was kicked off the team for the rest of the season and it seems as if the wheels are falling off. MSU still looks like a tournament team, but nowhere near the #2 overall ranking the coaches gave them in the preseason. They just seem to lack the toughness and chemistry of last season's team, and they don't have a place to go when they need instant offense. This team may surprise me in March, but I expect Sparty out before the end of the opening weekend.
2. Kansas State: If Tom Izzo is having a hard time sleeping, Frank Martin is screaming at players in his sleep. Kansas State has had one problem after another this season. Jacob Pullen is desperately missing backcourt-mate Denis Clemente, and the frontcourt has been a complete mess on the offensive end. This team was the favorite in the Big 12 entering the year, and now would be lucky to be considered the 5th best team in that league. Curtis Kelly missed 6 games due to receiving illegal benefits while Pullen missed 3 games for the same thing. This team has tinkered with lineups all season long and has had only one player (Rodney McGruder) start every game this season. The lack of continuity has been a real problem for the Wilcats and they better find a lineup that works before long, because if they don't learn how to play together soon, Jacob Pullen may have to decide whether he really will sit out the NIT.
3. Virginia Tech: The Hokies felt that this was finally the team that would keep them from sweating out selection Sunday from the bubble. The high expectations must make this all that much more painful. The Hokies are 13-6 with very few high profile wins, and seem to be following that same recipe to put them and coach Seth Greenberg in front of the TV hoping to hear their name called and not be headed to the NIT yet again. It's hard not to feel bad for Malcolm Delaney, who is a great player who hasn't been to the tournament in his career.
4. Baylor: The Bears opened the season at number 14 in the coaches poll, and gave themselves a cupcake nonconference schedule that would allow them to pad wins while getting freshman big man Perry Jones some quality experience. The strategy backfired when the Bears lost their three toughest nonconference games to teams that really aren't that good. They failed to beat Gonzaga, Florida State, and Washington State, all of whom might be playing in the tourney, but none of whom will do so as a top 6 seed. Baylor followed that up by opening 3-3 in conference with no marquee wins, but a bad loss to Iowa State. They really miss the leadership of point guard Tweety Carter and the polished low post game of Ekpe Udoh. Perry Jones makes mistakes down low, and there is no one there to level out LaceDarius Dunn when he gets off to a cold shooting start. Those downgrades from last year have left this team far from a lock to go dancing.
5. Gonzaga: Mark Few's team lined up a gauntlet to open the season that would scare many power conference teams, but his team failed to secure enough wins in that gauntlet to get a big boost in tourney chances. They lost 5 of their first 9 games but did beat Marquette and Baylor in that stretch. They did follow that with 9 straight wins including a 3-0 start in conference play, then they got stunned. They lost back-to-back road games, first against 12-9 Santa Clara by a shocking 14 points, then in overtime to San Francisco. In a conference as weak as the WCC, these kinds of losses can't happen if you want to leave the door open for an at-large bid should St. Mary's win the WCC tournament. The 'Zags still feel confident I'm sure that they can make the tournament, and the talented trio of Robert Sacre, Steven Gray and Elias Harris have the experience to try and make certain that happens. At any rate, the 13-7 start with two bad road losses is not the start that a team opening the season ranked #12 expects.
A lot of these teams may turn their fortunes around in the remainder of the season, but all of this is just talk until the tournament games go down. College basketball allows things to get settled on the court. Until those tournament games roll around, the Ohio State's and Kansas's of the world will continue to work out their little kinks to make a run at a title, while everyone else goes to work on making sure that they still have meaningful games to play once the regular season is over. Either way, it should be a fun final month and a half of lead-up to the big dance with several big games left along the way. Enjoy the games, and I'll be back with more college hoops analysis soon.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
BCS Chamionship Reaction
I have never in my life seen a running back who didn't think his knee hit the ground stop running.....until tonight. Replay confirmed that Auburn running back Michael Dyer never was down after rolling over an Oregon defender, and the 37-yard run he broke off afterward was instrumental in setting up the game-winning field goal that gave Auburn the national championship over the Oregon Ducks. Dyer rolled over that defender, then got up and just stopped running, causing everyone in a road uniform to stop running as well. Maybe he was playing possum, but regardless, as the old cliche goes you have to play til the whistle. Oregon didn't on just one play, and it cost them a national championship.
This game had all the makings of being a great one: 2 fantastic undefeated teams with powerful offenses, 2 defenses that came up huge throughout the game to keep this one low scoring, several huge momentum swings and gutsy plays to keep it entertaining despite the low score, and a storybook series of events started by a Cam Newton fumble that resulted in Oregon going in for a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game in the final minutes. Unfortunately, this game had a finish that was all too predictable. I think it is safe to say that most of the country that is neither an Oregon or Auburn fan was pulling for the Ducks in this one, and most of them ended up disappointed. Auburn has done a great job all year of gaining the ire of college football fans and gaining people who wanted to see them fall. For many of them, it started with seeing Nick Fairley make dirty plays like the one he was flagged for in the title game when he shoved LaMichael James's face into the ground after a play. For others, it is a result of the off the field troubles of Cameron Newton, whose history has now been well documented from cheating at Florida to his father asking for money from Mississippi State for Cam to go there. While no one ever could prove that Auburn paid for Cam to come to school or that Cam himself asked for money, Newton was allowed to continue playing, and the aura of impropriety around him has certainly irked some fans. For the rest of the country, it is simply about being tired of watching the SEC win the title year in and year out. This is the fifth straight national championship for the unquestioned strongest league in college football. With all of those people rooting against Newton and the Tigers, they just did what they've done all year. Auburn has been in so many close games this season, and so many they've had to come back from a deep deficit, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion once they got the ball back with the game tied how it would end. Newton would lead them down the field for a winning score and add to his legacy. It's old hat for him at this point. It took all the suspense out of the final drive at least for me, and I believe that the Tigers would have won with or without the incredibly lucky break for Dyer. There was so much hype around this game, and it almost lived up to it, but the final drive kept it from being one of the great championships like USC-Texas in 2006 and Ohio State-Miami in 2003. With that said, this game certainly had some things to talk about.
The biggest key to the game throughout was the inability of Oregon's offensive line to control the defensive line of the Tigers. They had almost no success running the ball up the middle against Nick Fairley, Michael Goggins, and Mike Blanc, and Darron Thomas was constantly pressured in the passing game as well. They failed to get good enough drives going to wear the big men in the middle out and get them off the field at any time. Things wouldn't have been so bad if the Ducks hadn't insisted on running right at the teeth of that defensive front whenever the team got in the red zone. It's easy to second guess the decision making after the game, especially the decision to go for a fourth and goal from the one when a field goal could have made a huge difference in this one. It's normally a little tougher to make the right call before you see the wrong one fail, but it didn't take a rocket scientist to see that the Ducks were struggling to run up the gut against Auburn. The safety by Mike Blanc should have been enough to show that. Oregon finally got creative and got the ball to the perimiter on the tying touchdown, but it turned out to be too little, too late. The play calling on the safety and the failed red zone opportunity are easy to point to as reasons the Ducks didn't pull this one out. They did make some good calls in this game as well, particularly on an 81-yard pass to Jeff Maehl that set up the Ducks first touchdown and a tremendous fake punt in which the punter threw a pass for the first down, but those plays were not enough.
When Auburn had the ball, the Ducks seemed to constantly be on their heels. They did manage to hold the Tigers to just 22 points, but they struggled all night to get them off the field. Cam Newton and the Tigers managed to convert on 9 third downs, most of which were 3rd and short situations where Cam Newton just lowered his shoulder and plowed ahead for the first. Even when the Tigers were stopped, they often stopped themselves with dropped passes or inaccurate throws by Newton like on the failed 4th and goal pass that he threw into the ground. While the defensive struggles still might not have cost them the game if not for the Dyer play, it certainly didn't help the offense any to not have as many opportunities with the ball as Auburn had. All in all, the Oregon defense actually played a pretty good game considering they held the Tigers well below their season average for points, but they needed to do a little more to win the national title.
At the end of the day, the Auburn Tigers have won the title, and they were really in control for most of the game despite the close final score. Most people are disappointed that the Ducks couldn't pull this game out, but few are surprised. Gene Chizik is now 8-0 in bowl games as a head coach or assistant, and the 2010-11 college football season is officially in the books. These two teams won't look anywhere near the same next year, especially with Newton and Fairley likely to be first round NFL draft picks, but they have this game to look back on with fond memories of victory or the anguish of defeat depending on which jersey they were wearing. There are plenty of what-ifs and second guessing for the Ducks, but they'll have to wait til next year to do anything about it. Congrats to the Tigers, who really were the best team in the country this season.
This game had all the makings of being a great one: 2 fantastic undefeated teams with powerful offenses, 2 defenses that came up huge throughout the game to keep this one low scoring, several huge momentum swings and gutsy plays to keep it entertaining despite the low score, and a storybook series of events started by a Cam Newton fumble that resulted in Oregon going in for a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game in the final minutes. Unfortunately, this game had a finish that was all too predictable. I think it is safe to say that most of the country that is neither an Oregon or Auburn fan was pulling for the Ducks in this one, and most of them ended up disappointed. Auburn has done a great job all year of gaining the ire of college football fans and gaining people who wanted to see them fall. For many of them, it started with seeing Nick Fairley make dirty plays like the one he was flagged for in the title game when he shoved LaMichael James's face into the ground after a play. For others, it is a result of the off the field troubles of Cameron Newton, whose history has now been well documented from cheating at Florida to his father asking for money from Mississippi State for Cam to go there. While no one ever could prove that Auburn paid for Cam to come to school or that Cam himself asked for money, Newton was allowed to continue playing, and the aura of impropriety around him has certainly irked some fans. For the rest of the country, it is simply about being tired of watching the SEC win the title year in and year out. This is the fifth straight national championship for the unquestioned strongest league in college football. With all of those people rooting against Newton and the Tigers, they just did what they've done all year. Auburn has been in so many close games this season, and so many they've had to come back from a deep deficit, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion once they got the ball back with the game tied how it would end. Newton would lead them down the field for a winning score and add to his legacy. It's old hat for him at this point. It took all the suspense out of the final drive at least for me, and I believe that the Tigers would have won with or without the incredibly lucky break for Dyer. There was so much hype around this game, and it almost lived up to it, but the final drive kept it from being one of the great championships like USC-Texas in 2006 and Ohio State-Miami in 2003. With that said, this game certainly had some things to talk about.
The biggest key to the game throughout was the inability of Oregon's offensive line to control the defensive line of the Tigers. They had almost no success running the ball up the middle against Nick Fairley, Michael Goggins, and Mike Blanc, and Darron Thomas was constantly pressured in the passing game as well. They failed to get good enough drives going to wear the big men in the middle out and get them off the field at any time. Things wouldn't have been so bad if the Ducks hadn't insisted on running right at the teeth of that defensive front whenever the team got in the red zone. It's easy to second guess the decision making after the game, especially the decision to go for a fourth and goal from the one when a field goal could have made a huge difference in this one. It's normally a little tougher to make the right call before you see the wrong one fail, but it didn't take a rocket scientist to see that the Ducks were struggling to run up the gut against Auburn. The safety by Mike Blanc should have been enough to show that. Oregon finally got creative and got the ball to the perimiter on the tying touchdown, but it turned out to be too little, too late. The play calling on the safety and the failed red zone opportunity are easy to point to as reasons the Ducks didn't pull this one out. They did make some good calls in this game as well, particularly on an 81-yard pass to Jeff Maehl that set up the Ducks first touchdown and a tremendous fake punt in which the punter threw a pass for the first down, but those plays were not enough.
When Auburn had the ball, the Ducks seemed to constantly be on their heels. They did manage to hold the Tigers to just 22 points, but they struggled all night to get them off the field. Cam Newton and the Tigers managed to convert on 9 third downs, most of which were 3rd and short situations where Cam Newton just lowered his shoulder and plowed ahead for the first. Even when the Tigers were stopped, they often stopped themselves with dropped passes or inaccurate throws by Newton like on the failed 4th and goal pass that he threw into the ground. While the defensive struggles still might not have cost them the game if not for the Dyer play, it certainly didn't help the offense any to not have as many opportunities with the ball as Auburn had. All in all, the Oregon defense actually played a pretty good game considering they held the Tigers well below their season average for points, but they needed to do a little more to win the national title.
At the end of the day, the Auburn Tigers have won the title, and they were really in control for most of the game despite the close final score. Most people are disappointed that the Ducks couldn't pull this game out, but few are surprised. Gene Chizik is now 8-0 in bowl games as a head coach or assistant, and the 2010-11 college football season is officially in the books. These two teams won't look anywhere near the same next year, especially with Newton and Fairley likely to be first round NFL draft picks, but they have this game to look back on with fond memories of victory or the anguish of defeat depending on which jersey they were wearing. There are plenty of what-ifs and second guessing for the Ducks, but they'll have to wait til next year to do anything about it. Congrats to the Tigers, who really were the best team in the country this season.
Monday, January 3, 2011
College Bowl Picks: Bowl Week 3
There is just one more week until Oregon and Auburn square off for all the marbles in college football this season (despite any arguments TCU may have), and there is another week of appetizers before we get to that main course. This past weekend helped to remind us why we considered the SEC as the best conference in the country as Florida, Alabama and Mississippi State all rolled over their overmatched Big Ten foes. I was certainly wrong when I said Michigan State would not get blown out by Alabama. Bowl season has not been good to the Big Ten, which is now 2-5 overall after an 0-5 New Year's Day. Ohio State still has a shot to redeem the Big Ten against the SEC in their Sugar Bowl matchup with Arkansas. That's enough talk about what has already happened, let's look at what's going to happen in this final week of action:
Discover Orange Bowl (1/3 8:30 p.m.)
Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 24 - The matchup is going to be an interesting one. These two teams are both on fantastic winning streaks coming into this game, and both would like to win it to close their seasons. You have to question where Stanford's focus will be after reports surfaced that Jim Harbaugh will likely not return as coach next season as he will have plenty of options in the NFL and possibly at his alma mater at Michigan if Rich Rodriguez is not retained. Harbaugh will be coaching in this game and should be able to keep his squad focused on the task at hand. The big story on the field will be the play of the two dynamic quarterbacks who lead these teams. Tyrod Taylor and Andrew Luck are very different players, but both are very good players and very good leaders. Taylor is a dual-threat quarterback who has really progressed as a passer each season and has only thrown 4 interceptions all season long, and he has a fantastic running game to go along with his improved passing attack. Ryan Williams is healthy, and Darren Evans proved to be a more than capable fill-in back rushing for a team best 817 yards and averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Andrew Luck on the other side is a phenomenal passer who is considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country and many believe would be the first pick in the draft if he were to go pro. Luck can make all of the throws, whether short or long, and he is very accurate completing about 70 percent of his passes. Luck can run a little bit too, and keeping Stanford's offense contained could present real challenges for Va Tech. This game will come down to which defense is able to make the adjustments to slow down the dynamic quarterback they face. I think that team will be the Hokies. They haven't lost a game since September, and they will likely find a way to win this game. Stanford will struggle to stay totally focused with the issues surrounding the coach, and Virginia Tech will take advantage and pull out a very narrow victory.
Confidence Points - 7 points
Allstate Sugar Bowl (1/4 8:30 p.m.)
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 28 - This will be the Big Ten's last shot at redemption this bowl season. For Ohio State, that idea of redemption runs a little deeper than conference ties. The Buckeyes have never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game. Ever. They are 0-9 all-time vs. the boys from the southeast, including 0-3 under head coach Jim Tressel. Tressel has taken OSU to two national title games, which they lost to SEC powerhouses LSU and Florida. Ohio State should have all the motivation in the world to beat this Arkansas team. Arkansas shold have their own motivation with this being their first ever BCS bowl game. Ryan Mallett has a little extra itch to beat the Buckeyes as a former Michigan Wolverine, a program that has never had a reason to like OSU. All of that says little of the matchup on the field. Ohio State has simply had the better defense of these two teams all season long. Ryan Mallett has made some good defenses look silly, and the emergence of Knile Davis running the ball over the second half of the season has opened things up even more in the passing game, but the Hogs are still missing top wideout Greg Childs, and Ohio State has made some pretty explosive offenses look pretty tame. I think they are able to slow down Arkansas enough to win this one against an Arkansas defense that has been sloppy in the team's losses to Auburn and Alabama. I think Terelle Pryor, Boom Herron, and Brandon Saine will rule the day and guide Ohio State to a close victory.
Confidence Points - 8 points
GoDaddy.com Bowl (1/6 8 p.m.)
Miami OH 27, Middle Tennessee State 17 - This game is about the least interesting matchup left on the bowl slate, as a MAC vs. Sun Belt game does little to interest people not attending the schools involved. Miami of Ohio has been pretty good down the stretch winning their final 5 games of the season including one of the best wins by any MAC school all year over NIU in the MAC title game. Zach Dysert has shown flashes at times this year, and Middle Tennessee has underachieved all year. Dwight Dasher was thought to be the best and most dynamic quarterback in the Sun Belt entering this season, not to mention he has one of the best names, and he has fallen far short of those expectations. Dasher threw just 6 touchdowns and 14 picks while MTSU went just 6-6 in one of the weakest leagues in the country. The Blue Raiders were very impressive in last year's New Orleans Bowl and they did take down the Sun Belt champs FIU in the regular season finale to earn a bowl bid this year. This is not the same Blue Raider team as last year however, and I think Miami Ohio will do enough to win this game by 2 scores. There is talk that Zach Dysert might not play due to injury, but his backup Austin Boucher has been impressive in his limited duty, and it shouldn't matter who starts for the Redhawks in this one.
Confidence Points - 23 points
AT&T Cotton Bowl (1/7 8 p.m.)
Texas A&M 23, LSU 14 - Texas A&M has been red hot down the stretch of the season. After opening the season 3-3, they really turned a corner when they switched from Jarrod Johnson to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and finished a a 6-game winning streak. Tannehill managed to avoid the silly turnovers that plagued Johnson, and the defense really came together and started to shut teams down. LSU has been spectacular on defense, but the offense has really struggled for much of the year due to terrible quarterback play by both Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. They have often leaned on running back Stevan Ridley to keep them moving, but Ridley is suspended for this game. It is going to take much more than another Les Miles miracle to be able to move the ball against Texas A&M. The Aggies need to be balanced on offense with Cyrus Gray running the ball, and avoid throwing at Patrick Peterson and they should be able to do enough to knock off the Bayou Bengals and finish the year on a 7-game streak.
Confidence Points - 1 point
BBVA Compass Bowl (1/8 12 p.m.)
Pittsburgh 28, Kentucky 17 - This game became much easier to predict when Kentucky suspended senior starting quarterback Mike Hartline for this bowl game. The Wildcats swooned late in the season, and this suspension should make it hard to recover from that. The Wildcats second leading passer for the season is wide receiver Randall Cobb. No one else on the team has played much quarterback, and it will be awfully tough for anyone to step in and not have a dropoff from the success that Hartline has had. Pitt should be able to keep the Wildcats in check on offense, and Ray Graham and Dion Lewis are a dynamic two headed backfield monster that should do plenty to get Pitt the win in this game.
Confidence Points - 33 points
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (1/9 9 p.m.)
Nevada 27, Boston College 20 - Boston College is proud just to be in a bowl game after opening conference play at 0-4 and finishing strong to get bowl eligible. Nevada, meanwhile, was fantastic all season, only losing once to Hawaii, and they are the only team to beat Boise State in the last 2 years. Nevada runs a very dynamic pistol offense led by Colin Kaepernick, who has slowly become a better passer over his years as starter. Kaepernick is also a very dangerous runner. Boston College has had one of the better defenses around, and should certainly have some success slowing the Wolf Pack down in this game, but as usual, scoring enough points to win it will be the question mark. BC has really played pretty well this season, but this Nevada offense is just too good to keep bottled up for an entire game. The Eagles will keep them from putting up the gaudy numbers they are capable of, but Nevada will do enough to outscore the lackluster BC offense and win the game.
Confidence Points - 25 points
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game (1/10 8:30 p.m.)
Auburn 41, Oregon 39 - The biggest game of the season pits two mile-a-minute offenses against one another as Cameron Newton and his incredible mix of running and passing talents in Auburn's hurry-up offense squares off against the Oregon Ducks and their blur offense. Both teams have run the table to get to this game behind their offensive prowess, but most people believe this game will be decided by which defense steps up. Both Oregon and Auburn have had a couple games that showed that their defenses were vulnerable, but both have had strong points as well. Oregon's defense was opportunistic, as they were one of the best in all of college football in turnover margin. Auburn's did its best work playing from behind. Every time they fell into a deep hole, the defense would stiffen up and shut down their opponent while Cam Newton put together one drive after another to take the game back. Nick Fairley seemed to make one huge play just about every game from his defensive tackle position to add fuel to the comeback fire, and this team had to come back a lot. Auburn definitely played the stronger schedule this season of the two teams, and played in the tougher conference, which has led everyone to give them the slight advantage in this game. There are a lot of reasons to pick the Ducks to win this game, though. Oregon has had far fewer close calls than the Tigers. They do a great job of forcing turnovers, and they run the fastest paced offense in the country. They don't give the big guys up front for Auburn (the stength of the Tiger defense), a chance to catch their breath and Nick Fairley may spend more time on the sideline than usual. Oregon's defense runs out constant substitutions and they have 22 players who get playing time just about every game. It will keep them fresh all day and will prevent them from being worn out for the late game drives for Cam Newton. If Oregon gets a lead early, it won't be as easy for them to come back as it usually is. Even with all of this saying that the Ducks can win this game, I just don't think Cam Newton will let Auburn lose. He has willed this team to victory each and every week, and I simply can't pick against him and the Tigers.
Confidence Points - 4 points
That's all of the bowl games for this year. Hopefully I know what I'm talking about with these picks, but you never know. Enjoy watching the rest of the games, and good luck to any of you with money riding on them.
Discover Orange Bowl (1/3 8:30 p.m.)
Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 24 - The matchup is going to be an interesting one. These two teams are both on fantastic winning streaks coming into this game, and both would like to win it to close their seasons. You have to question where Stanford's focus will be after reports surfaced that Jim Harbaugh will likely not return as coach next season as he will have plenty of options in the NFL and possibly at his alma mater at Michigan if Rich Rodriguez is not retained. Harbaugh will be coaching in this game and should be able to keep his squad focused on the task at hand. The big story on the field will be the play of the two dynamic quarterbacks who lead these teams. Tyrod Taylor and Andrew Luck are very different players, but both are very good players and very good leaders. Taylor is a dual-threat quarterback who has really progressed as a passer each season and has only thrown 4 interceptions all season long, and he has a fantastic running game to go along with his improved passing attack. Ryan Williams is healthy, and Darren Evans proved to be a more than capable fill-in back rushing for a team best 817 yards and averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Andrew Luck on the other side is a phenomenal passer who is considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country and many believe would be the first pick in the draft if he were to go pro. Luck can make all of the throws, whether short or long, and he is very accurate completing about 70 percent of his passes. Luck can run a little bit too, and keeping Stanford's offense contained could present real challenges for Va Tech. This game will come down to which defense is able to make the adjustments to slow down the dynamic quarterback they face. I think that team will be the Hokies. They haven't lost a game since September, and they will likely find a way to win this game. Stanford will struggle to stay totally focused with the issues surrounding the coach, and Virginia Tech will take advantage and pull out a very narrow victory.
Confidence Points - 7 points
Allstate Sugar Bowl (1/4 8:30 p.m.)
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 28 - This will be the Big Ten's last shot at redemption this bowl season. For Ohio State, that idea of redemption runs a little deeper than conference ties. The Buckeyes have never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game. Ever. They are 0-9 all-time vs. the boys from the southeast, including 0-3 under head coach Jim Tressel. Tressel has taken OSU to two national title games, which they lost to SEC powerhouses LSU and Florida. Ohio State should have all the motivation in the world to beat this Arkansas team. Arkansas shold have their own motivation with this being their first ever BCS bowl game. Ryan Mallett has a little extra itch to beat the Buckeyes as a former Michigan Wolverine, a program that has never had a reason to like OSU. All of that says little of the matchup on the field. Ohio State has simply had the better defense of these two teams all season long. Ryan Mallett has made some good defenses look silly, and the emergence of Knile Davis running the ball over the second half of the season has opened things up even more in the passing game, but the Hogs are still missing top wideout Greg Childs, and Ohio State has made some pretty explosive offenses look pretty tame. I think they are able to slow down Arkansas enough to win this one against an Arkansas defense that has been sloppy in the team's losses to Auburn and Alabama. I think Terelle Pryor, Boom Herron, and Brandon Saine will rule the day and guide Ohio State to a close victory.
Confidence Points - 8 points
GoDaddy.com Bowl (1/6 8 p.m.)
Miami OH 27, Middle Tennessee State 17 - This game is about the least interesting matchup left on the bowl slate, as a MAC vs. Sun Belt game does little to interest people not attending the schools involved. Miami of Ohio has been pretty good down the stretch winning their final 5 games of the season including one of the best wins by any MAC school all year over NIU in the MAC title game. Zach Dysert has shown flashes at times this year, and Middle Tennessee has underachieved all year. Dwight Dasher was thought to be the best and most dynamic quarterback in the Sun Belt entering this season, not to mention he has one of the best names, and he has fallen far short of those expectations. Dasher threw just 6 touchdowns and 14 picks while MTSU went just 6-6 in one of the weakest leagues in the country. The Blue Raiders were very impressive in last year's New Orleans Bowl and they did take down the Sun Belt champs FIU in the regular season finale to earn a bowl bid this year. This is not the same Blue Raider team as last year however, and I think Miami Ohio will do enough to win this game by 2 scores. There is talk that Zach Dysert might not play due to injury, but his backup Austin Boucher has been impressive in his limited duty, and it shouldn't matter who starts for the Redhawks in this one.
Confidence Points - 23 points
AT&T Cotton Bowl (1/7 8 p.m.)
Texas A&M 23, LSU 14 - Texas A&M has been red hot down the stretch of the season. After opening the season 3-3, they really turned a corner when they switched from Jarrod Johnson to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and finished a a 6-game winning streak. Tannehill managed to avoid the silly turnovers that plagued Johnson, and the defense really came together and started to shut teams down. LSU has been spectacular on defense, but the offense has really struggled for much of the year due to terrible quarterback play by both Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. They have often leaned on running back Stevan Ridley to keep them moving, but Ridley is suspended for this game. It is going to take much more than another Les Miles miracle to be able to move the ball against Texas A&M. The Aggies need to be balanced on offense with Cyrus Gray running the ball, and avoid throwing at Patrick Peterson and they should be able to do enough to knock off the Bayou Bengals and finish the year on a 7-game streak.
Confidence Points - 1 point
BBVA Compass Bowl (1/8 12 p.m.)
Pittsburgh 28, Kentucky 17 - This game became much easier to predict when Kentucky suspended senior starting quarterback Mike Hartline for this bowl game. The Wildcats swooned late in the season, and this suspension should make it hard to recover from that. The Wildcats second leading passer for the season is wide receiver Randall Cobb. No one else on the team has played much quarterback, and it will be awfully tough for anyone to step in and not have a dropoff from the success that Hartline has had. Pitt should be able to keep the Wildcats in check on offense, and Ray Graham and Dion Lewis are a dynamic two headed backfield monster that should do plenty to get Pitt the win in this game.
Confidence Points - 33 points
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (1/9 9 p.m.)
Nevada 27, Boston College 20 - Boston College is proud just to be in a bowl game after opening conference play at 0-4 and finishing strong to get bowl eligible. Nevada, meanwhile, was fantastic all season, only losing once to Hawaii, and they are the only team to beat Boise State in the last 2 years. Nevada runs a very dynamic pistol offense led by Colin Kaepernick, who has slowly become a better passer over his years as starter. Kaepernick is also a very dangerous runner. Boston College has had one of the better defenses around, and should certainly have some success slowing the Wolf Pack down in this game, but as usual, scoring enough points to win it will be the question mark. BC has really played pretty well this season, but this Nevada offense is just too good to keep bottled up for an entire game. The Eagles will keep them from putting up the gaudy numbers they are capable of, but Nevada will do enough to outscore the lackluster BC offense and win the game.
Confidence Points - 25 points
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game (1/10 8:30 p.m.)
Auburn 41, Oregon 39 - The biggest game of the season pits two mile-a-minute offenses against one another as Cameron Newton and his incredible mix of running and passing talents in Auburn's hurry-up offense squares off against the Oregon Ducks and their blur offense. Both teams have run the table to get to this game behind their offensive prowess, but most people believe this game will be decided by which defense steps up. Both Oregon and Auburn have had a couple games that showed that their defenses were vulnerable, but both have had strong points as well. Oregon's defense was opportunistic, as they were one of the best in all of college football in turnover margin. Auburn's did its best work playing from behind. Every time they fell into a deep hole, the defense would stiffen up and shut down their opponent while Cam Newton put together one drive after another to take the game back. Nick Fairley seemed to make one huge play just about every game from his defensive tackle position to add fuel to the comeback fire, and this team had to come back a lot. Auburn definitely played the stronger schedule this season of the two teams, and played in the tougher conference, which has led everyone to give them the slight advantage in this game. There are a lot of reasons to pick the Ducks to win this game, though. Oregon has had far fewer close calls than the Tigers. They do a great job of forcing turnovers, and they run the fastest paced offense in the country. They don't give the big guys up front for Auburn (the stength of the Tiger defense), a chance to catch their breath and Nick Fairley may spend more time on the sideline than usual. Oregon's defense runs out constant substitutions and they have 22 players who get playing time just about every game. It will keep them fresh all day and will prevent them from being worn out for the late game drives for Cam Newton. If Oregon gets a lead early, it won't be as easy for them to come back as it usually is. Even with all of this saying that the Ducks can win this game, I just don't think Cam Newton will let Auburn lose. He has willed this team to victory each and every week, and I simply can't pick against him and the Tigers.
Confidence Points - 4 points
That's all of the bowl games for this year. Hopefully I know what I'm talking about with these picks, but you never know. Enjoy watching the rest of the games, and good luck to any of you with money riding on them.
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