2011 AL Central preview

I've already explained how I feel the AL East will play out this season, and next up is the American League Central division. The Twins, Tigers and White Sox have all had success over the past few seasons, but here's how I see them stacking up this year:

1. Minnesota Twins

2. Chicago White Sox (wildcard)

3. Detroit Tigers

4. Kansas City Royals

5. Cleveland Indians

1. Minnesota Twins: The Twinkies had an interesting 2010 season. They lost closer Joe Nathan for the season in the spring and former AL MVP Justin Morneau for most of the second half but still managed to win the central division. Despite some changes in the offseason, I expect them to win the division again in 2011. The lineup lost a couple of the "pirahnas" that frustrated Ozzie Guillen and opposing managers over the past few seasons. Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert are no longer with the club, and while none of them are names that scare an opposing pitcher, they execute very well in clutch situations like putting a ball in play on the hit-and-run and not striking out in big at-bats. Despite those losses, the Twins have a pretty impressive lineup. Yongsters Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, as well as overseas import Tsuyoshi Nishioka should fill the scrapper roles well. Denard Span is still around to set the table, and the biggest plus for this team is that Justin Morneau should be healthy. Joe Mauer, Mike Cuddyer and Jim Thome are no slouches with the stick either, and this is still the type of team that can grind down anyone. The rotation is far from dominant, but Liriano can be, and Pavano, Duensing, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn are going to make you earn every run. They don't walk many hitters, so you will have to go up swinging. The bullpen is a spot of concern, as the team has lost Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch, who were all fantastic last year. But Pat Neshek has been back from surgery for a full season now and should find his old form, and Joe Nathan seems to be healthy and ready to return to his dominant form as well. Throw in Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, and the bullpen is still one to be reckoned with. The Twins have a very solid, balanced team, and Ron Gardenhire always gets more wins out of his teams than the talent says he should, so I think they hold off Chicago and Detroit for the title.

2. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox season will be determined by their starting rotation. The lineup can hit. Gordon Beckham will bounce back this season, and Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers barring injury. Carlos Quentin can hit 30+, but he's injury prone. Alex Rios is back to the potential 30-30 terror he can be, and Paul Konerko just seems ageless. On top of all those guys, they have the speed of Juan Pierre atop the lineup, who stole the most bases he has in a season last year despite being 32 years old. So clearly, this team will score some runs and scare some pitchers, especially in their hitters' park on the southside. The starting pitching is a major uncertainty. Mark Buehrle is as steady as they come, even if he is not spectacular. John Danks has really improved as the seasons have passed, and he may be the best pitcher on the team. The questions start with Gavin Floyd. Floyd was fantastic a couple years ago, but he has regressed the last 2 years. He needs to bounce back to be a top-3 starter in this rotation. Edwin Jackson has been an enigma the last two years. He was downright dominant for the Tigers in the first half of 2009. He faded down the stretch and has been traded twiced since the end of the '09 season. He did fit in a no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, but he has not found the rhythm that made him good for a 3 month stretch. If he can figure out how to get back to the form that made him so strong for the Tigers the first half of '09. Jake Peavy would give the team a big lift if he can give them anything at all. Phil Humber will open the year in the 5th spot, but it will likely be a revolving door until Peavy returns, if he does at all. I expect Floyd and Jackson to be better this season than last, but not return to the great levels they have pitched at in the past. The lineup is very good, and the bullpen should be as well, and the improvements from Floyd and Jackson should be enough to make this team the wild card winner. The Yankees are a better team, but they don't get the benefit of playing Kansas City and Cleveland a whole lot this season. Matt Thornton should be a much better closer than Bobby Jenks was, and Jesse Crain and Chris Sale should be great as well.

3. Detroit Tigers: This squad has been very good over the past couple of seasons, but they never seem to finish strong and it always seems to be their undoing. The lineup has been shuffled around a lot over the past two years, and what's left just doesn't match up with what the Sox and Twins can run out there every day. Miguel Cabrera is a legitimate MVP candidate, but the rest of the lineup is a bit of a patchwork. Alex Avila, Will Rhymes and Ryan Raburn have never been everyday players, but each is slated to start for the Tigers this year. Jhonny Peralta was very solid after coming over to Detroit last season, but over his career he has never been a good hitter for average. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch only have one season of big league experience each, and Magglio Ordonez is over the hill. Throw in that Brandon Inge is a career .237 hitter, and it would take monstrous seasons from Cabby and Victor Martinez just to keep this offense scoring runs. I would love to see the Tigers win the division, but the offense just isn't good enough to keep pace without a dominant rotation. They have a dominant top 2 with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (who was amazing after being sent down last season), but the rest is just ok. Rick Porcello has to take a huge step forward, Brad Penny needs to be very solid, and Phil Coke has to pull a C.J. Wilson in his move to starting for this team to be as good as the Twins. I think Penny will be solid in Comerica, and Porcello at least takes a small step forward, but I really question moving Coke out of the bullpen. He was tremendous out of the pen against lefties last season, and moving him to the rotation leaves a hole in his spot in the pen while also giving you an unproven big league starter. Jose Valverde is lights out in the ninth, but the rest of the pen is not as solid. Joel Zumaya always gets hurt, Ryan Perry is yet to put his great stuff together with good control, and despite his great season for the Rays last year, Joaquin Benoit's career numbers do nothing to suggest that he will repeat last season's performance. It all adds up to far too many questions to be a playoff team. I think Leyland gets them off to a good start, but a fade down the stretch leaves them behind the Twinks and White Sox and hoping to get better for 2012.

4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals lineup is chock full of young, talented boppers, and has a few more just waiting to get called up from the minors, but the pitching rotation, which traded away Zach Grienke, has more question marks than the Riddler's leotard. When your ace is Jeff Francis, who went 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA last year, there are few ways to put a positive spin on it. Francis, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Vin Mazzaro make up the rotation that despite having quite a few young guys, has very little upside. If each guy has a career year, the Royals still have only the 4th best rotation in the division. The bullpen isn't a whole lot better, but Joakim Soria is just plain filthy. He's probably been the most consistent closer in baseball not named Mariano Rivera, but the team just doesn't win enough for him to put up big save numbers. Robinson Tejada was strong last year and Jeremy Jeffries has a powerful young arm that can really give this pen a boost. Billy Butler is certainly the team's best hitter, but there are other bats around. Kila Ka'aihue has a powerful bat and will start at first base. Alex Gordon has a ton of talent, but hasn't put it all together yet. Alcides Escobar was a big part of the Grienke trade, and has the ability to steal 20+ bases and hit over .300 with above average defense. The rest of the lineup is filled with role players like Jason Kendall, Mike Aviles and Melky Cabrera, but they have two great young hitters waiting to get a big league shot in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, as well as speedster Lorenzo Cain waiting for a shot at center field. The Royals will be abysmal to start the season, but as they send the young hitters up to the bigs, and some very talented pitchers currently in the minors as well, the team will improve and manage to finish ahead of the Indians at season's end.

5. Cleveland Indians: The Royals rotation is probably the worst in the division, but the Indians aren't far behind. Fausto Carmona is the ace, and he is coming off of a resurgent season, but the rest of the group is unproven. They do have a little more upside than the Royals staff, but they have less talent in the minors on the mound. The little more upside they have is almost all in Carlos Carrasco. Scouts feel like he has the stuff to be a very effective starter, but he has struggled to put it all together. The rest of the rotation is made up of Mitch Talbot, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, none of whom will frighten an AL lineup. The bullpen was decent last year, with Chris Perez being a very talented pitcher to handle ninth inning duties. Tony Sipp could be very good if he can keep the ball in the yard, and Rafael Perez is coming off a strong season and youngster Vinny Pestano had ridiculous K:BB ratios in the minors last year and could be very solid this season as well. If the bullpen can perform above expectations, this team will have a shot to finish above the AL Central basement, but if they struggle, they could land the Indians with the worst record in the league. The lineup needs some veterans who have been injured and ineffective to come back in a big way. Travis Hafner has fallen apart since hitting all those grand slams a few seasons ago, and Grady Sizemore can't keep himself on the field. I see no reason to expect sudden bounce backs from those two, so it will be on the reliable Shin-Soo Choo and a bunch of unreliable youngsters to carry the offense. Carlos Santana should be great this year, but he is coming off a major injury that ended his 2010 season. Asdrubal Cabrera and Orlando Cabrera give the team a veteran middle infield that is less than impressive, and Jack Hannahan has no business starting on a big league club. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley need to have a really good year to keep the Indians from being one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. I don't see them taking the step forward they need to, and the Indians will be bad all season long. They may be able to keep pace with KC for fourth in the early part of the year, but once the Royals get their talented kids up to the bigs, they will pull away and make Cleveland the worst team in the division.

2011 AL East preview

The snow is melting, the weather is warming up, and the calendar is about to turn to April. That means one thing: It's baseball season. It's been an interesting offseason and spring to be sure, but you never know how the year is going to play out until it gets going. That doesn't mean I'm not going to try. With that said, I'm going to take a division by division look at the upcoming season, complete with my predicitions for the final standings in each division and how the playoffs will play out. It'll never be accurate, because there are countless twists and turns that the season will take that are yet to be seen, but here is my AL East preview for the 2011 season:

1. Boston Red Sox

2. New York Yankees

3. Tampa Bay Rays

4. Baltimore Orioles

5. Toronto Blue Jays

1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox spent the entire offseason loading up on offense to try and keep up with the Yankees all-star lineup. Both teams are stacked from top to bottom on offense, but the Red Sox rotation is a little bit deeper and more talented than that of the Yankees. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to replace Victor Martinez and Mike Cameron really gives this team one of the top 2 or 3 offensive clubs in the league. Even if Jacoby Ellsbury isn't healthy, this team can still put Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro at the top of the order and still have great tablesetters for boppers Crawford, Youkilis, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez. Basically, the Red Sox are gonna score a lot of runs, and you're gonna have to score a lot to beat them. Jon Lester is a true ace at the top of the rotation, and Clay Buchholz is developing into a very good starter as well. A lot of the team's pitching success will hinge on bounceback seasons by John Lackey and Josh Beckett, and I think both guys will be much better this season. It would be nice to see Dice-K bounce back as well, and he has had a good spring, but rubber-armed ageless wonder Tim Wakefield is still around with his knuckleball as an insurance policy. I think the team would be better served to start Jason Varitek behind the plate because he can handle a pitching staff better, but it looks as though Jarrod Saltalamacchia will open the season as the starter. The bullpen is chock-full of flame throwers after adding Bobby Jenks to Daniel Bard and Papelbon for the late innings. A lot of people expect Papelbon to fall off after his worst season as a closer last year, but I think the skills are still there. I believe he gets back to being an elite closer this year with Bard an elite set up guy. These guys should absolutely win the AL East, and likely will have the best record in the American League at season's end. They are loaded in the lineup, in the bullpen, and the rotation has the talent to be the best in the division if Beckett and Lackey return to form.

2. New York Yankees: I have tried many times over the years to make the bold prediction that the New York Yankees will miss the playoffs, and I once again make that fool's gamble this year. The Yankees offense has just as much talent as Boston's. Robinson Cano was a legitimate MVP candidate a season ago. A-Rod is still A-Rod, even if his numbers weren't superhuman last year, and Mark Texiera won't hit below .270 again this season. The Yanks still boast Brett Gardner and the aging Derek Jeter to set the table for the middle of the lineup, and Jorge Posada finally gets a rest for his knees with a move to DH. All signs point to this team scoring just as many runs as the BoSox this year, but the pitching rotation is the key difference. CC Sabathia is as sure a thing as there is in this league, but there are question marks throughout the rest of the staff. Can Phil Hughes duplicate his numbers from a season ago? Can A.J. Burnett get over the awful 2010 campaign he posted? Can Freddy Garcia still be a productive major league starter? And can Ivan Nova do enough in the fifth spot with his limited experience to stay there? I think most of the answers to those questions are negative. Burnett hasn't been any good in about 5 years, Freddy Garcia is washed up, and I expect at least some regression from Phil Hughes. Nova could be solid, but the rest of the group is really going to struggle, which will make what should be a solid bullpen a little overworked. Joba, David Robertson and Damaso Marte will need to pitch outstanding for this team to have a shot at the east division title. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are lights out in the 8th and 9th, but the key will be getting the lead to them. I love the lineup, and I like the bullpen a lot, but I really don't like the rotation outside of CC. I think the Yanks come up just short in the wild card race after finishing behind Boston in the East.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are not the same team that they have been over the past couple of seasons. They lost superstar Carl Crawford to division rival Boston and workhorse starter Matt Garza and slugging first baseman Carlos Pena to the Chicago Cubs. This team is still young and athletic, but the lineup isn't as strong as it was a season ago. Evan Longoria is one of the best young players in the league, and Manny Ramirez looks set to become a menace to opposing pitchers once again after signing with the Rays. They may have lost a lot of speed with Crawford's departure, but B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist and prospect Desmond Jennings can all run. One of the big keys to the lineup will be how well Dan Johnson swings the bat in place of Pena. He hit a ton of homers in the minors a season ago, but that power has to translate to the big league level. Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist need to provide a little pop as well, and Manny and Johnny Damon need to revert to their past form to help get this lineup to keep up with Boston and New York. One thing with this team that doesn't seem to be a question mark is the pitching rotation. David Price, Jeff Neimann and Wade Davis make for a very dangerous young core, and Jeremy Hellickson is the next possible breakout starter. Andy Sonnastine provides a little insurance as well. If James Shields gets back to the way he pitched before last season, the rotation is the one place this team can be as good or better than the BoSox and Yanks. The bullpen isn't going to match up, however. Tampa lost a lot of peices in the pen in the offseason, including closer Rafael Soriano and middle men Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour. Kyle Farnsworth is far from an ideal closer, and other options Jake McGee and Joel Peralta are unproven. J.P. Howell has closing experience, but is out for the first couple months of the season. It all adds up to a patchwork bullpen that could be a serious achilles heel for the Rays. This team has been very good over the past 3 or 4 years, but they may have a hard time keeping pace this season after some major roster changes. Look for them to keep Baltimore and Toronto behind them, but the playoffs are unlikely.

4. Baltimore Orioles: The O's got a huge lift down the stretch last season after Buck Showalter was hired as manager, and he has made waves this spring by ripping the Red Sox and Yankees in the media. All of that makes Baltimore an intriguing team this year, but even with an infusion of veteran position players, this team is still too young on the mound to be a force in the AL East. The lineup should be as good as it's been in years, with Derrek Lee's veteran leadership, Vlad Guerrero's potent bat, and Mark Reynold's swing-for-the-fences approach, this offense should be fun to watch. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters should continue to improve at the dish while still being good young defensive players. Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts are always steady, and this team believes in itself after the way they finished a season ago. The pitching staff has a lot of potential, but it is very raw. Brian Matusz is the ace of the staff as far as stuff goes, but Jeremy Guthrie is more consistent. Justin Duchscherer is a veteran presence trying to come back from some injury troubles, and young guys Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman are all trying to take the next step. The bullpen has its issues as well, and all of the pitching uncertainty adds up to a 4th place finish in the east. Kevin Gregg is far from a great closer, and the guys behind him don't inspire much confidence. If the young rotation matures this year and the veteran lineup gels, the O's could push for third, but it seems unlikely.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays were an unexpected .500 team for much of the year last year. They had a ton of homeruns and a ton of strikeouts at the plate, and that likely won't change much this season. Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista are all boom or bust hitters who swing for the fences with little regard for batting average. They have changed things up a little with speedster Rajai Davis being inserted at the top of the order, but there is little discipline at the plate in the rest of the lineup. They will hit a lot of homeruns again, but the lineup will stall at times. The pitching takes a big step back with Shaun Marcum dealt to Milwaukee, and outside of Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, there is no 1 or 2 starter potential in this staff. the rest of the rotation is made up of guys who should be number 5 starters on an average team. The bullpen is better than the rotation, but not by a ton. Frank Francisco should end up as the closer, and he has been successful in that role with Texas, and Jason Frasor is always good, but no one else stands out. The Jays will need someone else in the rotation to step up and the lineup to show more plate discipline than expected to avoid finishing as the worst team in the division. I don't see that happening.

That's all for the AL East. My predictions for the AL Central are soon to follow.

Last chance for bubble teams to step up and make a statement.

We have finally arrived at the last weekend of the college hoops regular season, and things are still a jumbled mess. Earlier in the week I talked about how many of the teams at the top have been scuffling and how there were no dominant teams this season. BYU recently joined the list of the struggling top 10 teams with an emphatic loss to New Mexico in their first game after kicking leading rebounder Brandon Davies off the team for breaking the school's honor code. Even with all of the chaos and strife amongst the top teams in the country, the top 4 seeds finally seem to be coming clear. Thanks to Texas losing a few ballgames and the BYU loss, it seems that Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Ohio State are pretty much locked in to the top seed line. If any of them suffer an unexpected early conference tourney upset, a team like Purdue or Texas could sneak back in there, but that seems unlikely. The real mess in this tournament is at the bottom of it, with the bubble teams.

Nobody on the bubble seems to want to be in the tournament, pretty much following up each good win with a loss to teams they should handle without a problem. Colorado and Nebraska each lost to Iowa State after wins over Texas. Baylor followed its win over Texas A&M with a double-digit loss to Oklahoma State. Virginia Tech toppled Duke, and then promptly lost to Boston College. The Eagles were no strangers to bad defeats themselves, losing to Miami in the last couple of weeks. Every time a team gets to a point where we feel like they are pretty safe, they go and lose a game they have no business losing. It really is making it very hard to separate who's in from who's out. If you do the math, you know that there are 68 teams getting into this tournament, 31 automatically by winning the conference tournament or the Ivy League regular season title, and 37 by an at-large bid. As of right now, there are 57 spots pretty much filled, whether its an automatic qualifer from a one-bid league or a team that should feel pretty safe for an at-large bid. That leaves just 11 spaces between about 21 teams that have a realistic chance. Marquette, Michigan State and Georgia aren't sure things, but they certainly look like tournament teams at this point. that drops it down to 8 spots for 18. Those 18 teams are:

Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois, Baylor, Nebraska, Colorado, Washington State, Alabama, Utah State, Richmond, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Butler, UAB, Missouri State, and Colorado State.

Life on the bubble could get a lot easier if a few of those teams win their conference tournaments. Missouri State, Utah State, UAB, and Butler should all be favored to win their tourneys while St. Mary's or Gonzaga will likely win the one in the WCC. If they all come out on top, that cuts it to 13 teams fighting over 8 spots. If Illinois beats Indiana, they will likely be in as will Michigan if they can top MSU. Clemson would likely be out with a loss to Va Tech and Baylor also with a loss to Texas. Colorado and Nebraska square off in what will essentially be an elimination game. If these things all play out, we're talking about 6 teams vying for 8 spots. In that scenario, you would feel pretty good about Richmond and if the Gaels and Zags meet in the final of the WCC tourney, the loser would likely get in as well. That would leave Virginia Tech, Boston College, Colorado State, Alabama, Washington State, and the winner of Colorado/Nebraska looking at 4 remaining spots. If this does play out, it's gonna be hard to complain if you are on the outside looking in. More likely, all of this talk will mean nothing once the conference tournament chaos ensues. If things continue the way they're going, we should be waiting on selection Sunday to see what teams that limped into the finish will be rewarded with a tourney berth. At least this year, those last 4 into the field have to prove they belong there by playing a first round game just to get to the field of 64. So that's where the tournament picture stands, now lets look at the games for the weekend to close out the season, and see who can make one final statement before the tourneys get rolling next week.

Saturday 3/5:

Kansas @ Missouri (12pm et): This game should be a lot of fun. Kansas certainly has a lack of depth with Thomas Robinson still sidelined, and the uptempo Tigers will keep the Jayhawks gasping for air. Mizzou still doen's know how to win on the road, but this game will be in Columbia, where they are at their best. Look for Marcus Denmon to be the key for Mizzou, and the Morris twins need to try and conserve energy to be able to play as many minutes as possible.
My pick: Kansas

Louisville @ West Virginia (12pm et): The Cardinals have overacheived all season long, and there isn't a lot of reason to believe that will stop this weekend, but the Mountaineers have been tough lately, and the game is in Morgantown. The loss of Rakeem Buckles hasn't slowed L'ville down yet, but West Virginia has plenty of big bodies to throw at them in Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Deniz Kilicli. WVU also should be more motivated since Louisville has already clinched a double-bye in the Big East tournament while the Mountaineers need to win this game to clinch a first round bye.
My pick: WVU

Virginia Tech @ Clemson (12pm et): This one has huge bubble implications. Tech doesn't seem to know how to get off the bubble, and with their recent history they'll likely lose this one so that they really don't know whether they are in or not til the selection show. Clemson is in even worse shape than the Hokies as of today, but that could change if the Tigers take care of VT. The point guard matchup should be a real treat with Malcolm Delaney up against Demontez Stitt, one of the best offensive point guards in the ACC against one of the best defensive ones. Delaney's offensive production should be a key to the game's outcome.
My pick: Virginia Tech

Duquesne @ Richmond (12pm et): This game is only mentioned because the Spiders can't afford to overlook the Dukes. Duquesne got off to an 8-0 start in A-10 play this year before coming back to earth, so they can be dangerous. Kevin Anderson needs to have his teammates ready, because a loss here could be devastating to Richmond's at-large hopes.
My pick: Richmond

Indiana @ Illinois (12pm et): The Illini had better be prepared to play in this one. They have been sporadic of late, and Indiana has the kind of athletes that can make you pay if you come into a game sleepwalking. Illinois has only lost at home to Purdue and Ohio State in Big Ten play, so they seem to play better with the support of the home crowd, but they have to stay focused in this game. They need to move well without the ball to get good looks in the post for Davis and Tisdale, because they can't continue to rely on outside shooting to bail out lazy play.
My pick: Illinois

Georgia @ Alabama (1:30pm et): Mark Fox's squad has been pretty strong all year, not losing a game to a team with an RPI outside of the top 50. Alabama was miserable in the nonconference before steamrolling through the early part of the SEC schedule. Anthony Grant's young team would finish the season 12-4 in conference with a win over the Bulldogs, which would have to make the committee take notice of them, but Georgia is tough. Look for the Bulldogs to take care of business against the Tide behind some strong play from power forward Trey Thompkins, and put to rest any doubt as to whether or not they are in.
My pick: Georgia

Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm et): The Irish are coming off an absolutely unconscious shooting night against Villanova on Monday, and they have to be due to backslide in this one. This is a fun matchup between one of the most veteran squads in the Big East and one of the youngest. Oriakhi should be tough to handle down low, and Kemba Walker should do a good job involving his young teammates if he wants to close out the regular season on a high note. It will be critical to not give Notre Dame open outside shots or they will kill you from out there, as 'Nova learned earlier this week.
My pick: UConn

Georgetown @ Cincinnati (2pm et): The Hoyas have been struggling since the injury to Chris Wright. They've had more than a week off since losing to Syracuse, and hopefully the extra practice time has them ready to exact a little revenge from the Bearcats. Cincy really solidified their tourney resume by beating the Hoyas in DC in the game in which Wright got hurt, but there is plenty at stake in this one. The loser might not get a first round bye in the Big East tournament.
My pick: Georgetown

Michigan State @ Michigan (2pm et): This rivalry showdown could be the best game of the day Saturday. Both teams are on the bubble, and while MSU's strength of schedule should be enough to separate them from the rest of the bubble heap, there are no sure things when you have double-digit losses. U of M is on a bit of a roll lately, and would just about seal up a berth with a home win over the Spartans. Freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. has really been coming into his own, and the Wolverines will certainly be a handful. It's just tough to bet against Tom Izzo in a big lates season game.
My pick: Michigan State

Villanova @ Pittsburgh (4pm et): Villanova is in an absolute free fall right now. They struggled down the stretch last year, and wound up out of the tournament before the sweet 16 as a 2-seed. The way they got dismantled by Notre Dame Monday was embarassing, and now they get to go to Pittsburgh, where it's almost impossible to win a game. The Panthers' bruising style won't be fun for Villanova's guard oriented team, and Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall will make 'Nova pay again if they don't guard the outside shot. The Wildcats could really use a confidence boosting win right now, but Pitt will be tough since an outright Big East title is at stake for the Panthers.
My pick: Pittsburgh

UCLA @ Washington State (5:30pm et): The Cougars are in pretty much a must-win position going into this game, and they go into it without their best player. Klay Thompson is suspended for the game after being cited for marijuana possession, and that will make the Bruins very tough to beat. If UCLA wins, it solidifies their seeding in the tournament and gives them hope for a shared conference crown if Arizona stumbles agaisnt Oregon State. Look for Reeves Nelson and the Bruins to be fired up for this one.
My pick: UCLA

Cleveland State @ Butler (6pm et): This one is in the semifinals of the Horizon League tournament, and both teams need it bad. Without a conference tournament win, the Vikings are headed to the NIT, and Butler can expect the same if it fails to at least get to the tourney final agaisnt either Valpo or UW-Milwaukee. Norris Cole will likely do some amazing things for Cleveland State, but Butler has a ton of postseason experience and a better overall team. This game should have a lot of intensity.
My pick: Butler

Marquette @ Seton Hall (6pm et): Marquette can't really afford to let a winnable game get away from them. The big thing the Golden Eagles resume rests on is that they have no bad losses. Losing to Seton Hall, even on the road would qualify as one of those. The Pirates are playing well, having beaten red hot St. John's this week, so Marquette had better be ready for a fight. Jeremy Hazell has been a dynamic scorer his whole career for Seton Hall, and he will be a big key for the Pirates in this game.
My pick: Marquette

Florida @ Vanderbilt (6pm et): This game is mainly about seeding implications. Vandy has a little more at stake with a possible first round SEC tourney bye on the line. They are currently tied with Kentucky and Georgia for the spot, but only one can get it so a win here is crucial. Florida has played the most consistent ball in the SEC this year, and would likely get a 3 seed with a win here and a decent SEC tournament showing. The Gators will have to keep after John Jenkins, who has been scoring at will lately. This should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.
My pick: Florida

Duke @ North Carolina (8pm et): This is the marquee game of the weekend, and there are several big games. Duke would absolutely wrap up a one seed with a victory over the red hot Tar Heels. The winner of this game is the number one seed in the ACC tournament and regular season champ. It doesn't get much better for this rivalry. Duke has been fantastic, led by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, while UNC's recent run has been the result of the improvements of young guys Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes. Barnes has been brimming with confidence lately after knocking down the game-winner against FSU on Wednesday. Duke will try and keep him quiet with Singler on him defensively. That strategy worked in Durham, but will it be effective on the road in Chapel Hill?
My pick: Duke

Texas @ Baylor (9pm et): The Bears, quite simply, need to win this game. They should be terribly overmatched if the Longhorns play up to their capabilities, but Texas has really not done that much on the road lately. They've dropped games to Kansas State, Colorado and Nebraska lately, so a loss to Baylor isn't inconceivable. Texas could really use this win to right the ship into the Big 12 tourney, and Baylor just flat out needs to win.
My pick: Texas

Nebraska @ Colorado (9pm et): This is a bubble elimination game. Neither team has a great resume, but both got a lift from beating the Longhorns at home. Neither team has proved that they can win on the road, but both have been very good in their home gyms. With this game in Colorado, you'd have to favor the Buffs. Alec Burks is a great scorer, and although Nebraska has a good defense, so did Texas and Burks went off on them in Boulder.
My pick: Colorado

USC @ Washington (10pm et): The Trojans certainly don't look like they are going to be a tournament team, but a win over Washington would give them a season sweep over the Huskies and might make some committee members look closer at these two Pac-10 schools. The Trojans do have big nonconference wins over Texas and Tennessee, and two wins over a sure tournament team who is pretty close to them in the standings could give them some reason to complain. The Huskies won't be easy to beat, though.
My pick: Washington

Colorado State @ San Diego State (10pm et): This is the last shot for Colorado State to pad the resume before the conference tournament. The Rams are a long shot right now to get in, and they played SDSU close in Fort Collins. Winning this game is a must. If they don't, it would likely take two good wins to get into the tournament, and the only chances they would have would be in the semifinals and the finals of the MWC tournament. Since winning both of those games would mean winning that tourney, they have to win this game to be an at-large team. Otherwise, it's tourney title or NIT.
My pick: San Diego State

Sunday 3/6:

Kentucky @ Tennessee (12pm et): The Wildcats haven't won a road game against a quality team in a while, and they could really use the confidence boost of taking down the Vols in Knoxville. These freshmen have to learn to win away from Rupp before the tourney, because there won't be any home games there. The Volunteers may be hard pressed to keep all of the UK perimeter shooters in check, since top UT defender Melvin Goins can only cover one guy at a time.
My pick: Kentucky

Wisconsin @ Ohio State (4pm et): This game is about revenge for the Buckeyes. They've only dropped two games all season, and one was to these Badgers. Ohio State doesn't lose in Columbus, and winning against Wisconsin should put OSU in great shape to pick up the number one overall seed in the tournament. This matchup should be just as good as the first one, and it will be all about Wisconsin being able to defend Sullinger without losing the defense on the perimeter shooters. It should be a great game to watch to close out the regular season.
My pick: Ohio State

Ticket Punching Games:

This weekend there will be a couple of games to punch the first few automatic bid tickets to this year's NCAA tournament. The Ivy League title will likely be decided, and the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Ohio Valley, and Missouri Valley tournament titles will be sorted out this weekend. Here's a look at those games:

Saturday 3/5:

Big South Final:UNC Asheville @ Coastal Carolina (4pm et): The Chanticleers dominated the regular season in the Big South, but have a huge cloud of controversy lingering over them as they play without their leading scorer Desmond Holloway due to suspension. The roster is down to 8 active players, and UNC-Asheville will test that limited depth. This one should be tough for CCU, but can they really get this close to the NCAAs two straight years and fall short both times?
My pick: UNC-Asheville

Atlantic Sun Final:Belmont vs. North Florida (6pm et): The Ospreys of North Florida have been impressive in the A-Sun tournament, knocking off the 3rd and 2nd seeds on their way to the finals to play top-seeded Belmont. Belmont is not going to go down so easily. Look for the Bruins to continue the dominating play that got them that top seed and punch their ticket to the big dance.
My pick: Belmont

Ivy League: Princeton @ Harvard (7pm et): This game would punch Princeton's ticket with a win by the Tigers, but a loss would give Harvard a half game lead and likely force an eventual one game playoff between the two for the league crown. Tommy Amaker's Crimson squad would love nothing more than to win this game and have a chance to play their way into the big dance for the first time in a long time, but Princeton won the first meeting and is close to unbeatable in Ivy League play.
My pick: Princeton

Ohio Valley Final: Tennessee Tech vs. Morehead State (8pm et): Morehead State didn't expect to get this matchup in the finals. The two toughest teams in the OVC other them themselves are out before the finals. The Eagles dominated a good Austin Peay team while their stiffest competition, the Murray State Racers, got stunned by Tennessee Tech. Now, the Eagles and star big man Kenneth Faried, fresh off his 21 rebound performance agaisnt the Governors, just have to stay focused and take care of business against Tennessee Tech to earn their second tourney bid in the last 3 seasons.
My pick: Morehead State

Sunday 3/6:

Missouri Valley Final: (2pm et): The matchup is still undecided since the semifinals are on Saturday, but it should be a great game no matter who plays here. Top seed Missouri State plays Creighton in one semifinal, while 2 seed Wichita State gets Indiana State in the other. The Bears survived a big time scare from Southern Illinois in the quarterfinals and is unlikely to play that poorly agaisnt Creighton. Wichita State should be able to overmatch the Sycamores in their semifinal match, which would set up the final everyone wants to see: Shockers vs, Bears. The Bears won the two regular season matchups, but they were both close and it's very hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. Look for a very close, hotly contested final if these two both get there.
My pick: Wichita State

Well, that's it for this weekend. Enjoy the big games, and hopefully your team goes dancing. I'll be back to break down the big conference tourneys next week.