College bowl season is starting to heat up as we approach the BCS games and all of the traditional New Year's Day games that take place each year. As usual, bowl season has been extremely unpredictable so far. It's impossible to know how some teams will respond to having a month off. There is so much that can happen in that time frame. Teams can add new formations and wrinkles to their offense and defense, it can give players a chance to get healthy for their games, and it can give players a chance to stew over a poor finish or get complacent after a strong one. It all adds up to a lot of head-scratching final results during bowl season. Washington held Nebraska to 7 points in their Holiday Bowl win after allowing the 'Huskers to roll up 56 in the regular season meeting between the schools in Seattle. West Virginia clearly was rusty after the month off in their bowl game as they turned the ball over 5 times in the second half alone. Iowa came out more prepared to play after a month off than Missouri, despite ending the regular season on a 3-game skid and having their top running back and wideout out for the game. Anything is possible in these games, and here is my futile effort to predict what will happen in the games on New Year's Day:
TicketCity Bowl (1/1 12 p.m.)
Northwestern 27, Texas Tech 20 - The Wildcats have really struggled as a team since losing quarterback Dan Persa to a season ending injury in an upset over Iowa. People expected the offense to struggle since Persa was such a big part of it, but few realized that the defense would also fall apart after the injury. The next game after the injury against Illinois, the Wildcats allowed over 500 rushing yards to the Illini. After a month off, I think the Wildcats will get it straightened out. Evan Watkins has had a month of practice as the first-string quarterback, and the defense has had a lot of time to get ready for the Texas Tech offense they will see in this game. NU's defense struggles against the run, but Texas Tech is a pass-first offense with Taylor Potts at quarterback. The Red Raiders have been far from impressive at times this year, and I think Pat Fitzgerald is too good a coach to let this team continue to not show up just because Persa is out. I think Northwestern plays a very good game and is able to take down Texas Tech in a minor upset.
Confidence Points - 16 points
Outback Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Florida 31, Penn State 20 - The coaching matchup will be the story in this game. Urban Meyer is in his final game as head coach of the Gators, but he has had a very successful run in his time in Gainesville. His opponent in the matchup is Joe Paterno, who had more wins in the FBS that any other coach in history, and unlike Meyer, will be back for another year next season. As interesting a matchup that is, it tells nothing about what will happen on the field. The Gators have really struggled offensively at times this season, having issues with turnovers, injuries to the running backs, and a lack of continuity at the quarterback position. While it's tough to know if the Gators will be any better with the quarterback situation or the turnovers, the injuries are finally getting better. The Gators have a ton of speed in that backfield with Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps, and the Nittany Lions won't be ready for it. Penn State has some offensive talent in running back Evan Royster, and a quarterback who really makes smart decisions in Matt McGloin, but they lack the athleticism of the Gators. I expect Florida to win this game more easily than people expect.
Confidence Points - 20 points
Capital One Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Alabama 27, Michigan State 23 - This game has all of the makings of one of those bowl games that ends up in an upset because one team wants to be there more than the other. The question is, which team wants to be there more? Both have different reasons to be dissappointed by their postseason destination. Alabama went into the season as the clear favorite to win the national title, but had some disappointing losses to South Carolina and LSU, and a collapse against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. They didn't plan on ending up in the Capital One Bowl, and they might not have a ton of motivation to win it. Everyone remembers the drubbing they took in the Sugar Bowl at the hands of Utah a couple years ago when they lost a shot at the national title game in the SEC championship against Florida. Michigan State is disappointed for a completely different reason with their bowl destination. The Spartans went 11-1 and defeated the team that is representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl during the regular season. The Spartans were the low man in a three-way tie atop the conference, and missed out on a BCS bowl game because of it. The Spartans can prove they belonged in a BCS game with a win, while Alabama can make up for a disappointing season with a big win over a highly ranked MSU team. With all of that said, I think Alabama has more talent than Michigan State. The Spartans will not get blown out in this game, but the running back duo of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson along with the fantastic wide receiver Julio Jones. Michigan State has plenty of weapons of their own, but the difference could be at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has had some issues at times this year, particularly in the Iowa game that MSU lost, while McElroy has been extremely efficient. I think this game is decided by a mistake by Cousins, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Spartans pull off the win.
Confidence Points - 9 points
Progressive Gator Bowl (1/1 1:30 p.m.)
Mississippi State 35, Michigan 28 - The final score in this game will be very difficult to predict. Michigan has a very potent offense that can put up 40 points on almost any defense, but Mississippi State has had a lot of time to prepare for it. The Wolverines also give up a ton of points, but MSU won't have to score much if they are able to slow down U of M. This should be a fun game to watch, but I think the biggest factor in this game will be Michigan's lack of a kicking game. Denard Robinson has been fantastic in most games this year, and he has a ton of weapons to get the football to, but if they get held to 4th down, Rich Rod is always going to be hesitant to try a field goal. Kicker Seth Brookhuisen has been very inconsistent, and it normally feels like a higher percentage play to trust Denard Robinson and the offense to go for it on 4th than to kick. I think the Bulldogs will stop a couple of those 4th down attempts, and those lost 3 point opportunities will contribute to the loss. Chris Relf and Vick Ballard can both run for Mississippi State, and the Wolverines had the 2nd worst run defense in the Big Ten. Michigan's offense will keep them competitive, but the lack of a defense will likely get them another loss, and cost head coach Rich Rodriguez his job.
Confidence Points - 15 points
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (1/1 4:30 p.m.)
TCU 30, Wisconsin 27 - This game is gonna be a brawl. Both teams go into this with something to prove. Wisconsin needs to show that they really were the best team in the Big Ten this year. TCU needs to show that they should have gotten more consideration for the title game. The non-AQ schools always have something to prove in a BCS game, and TCU will certainly fight to win this one. Wisconsin has been running over people with their bruising ground attack, and they have the size up front to continue to do that against an undersized TCU defensive front. John Clay returns for this game, and that might actually not be a good thing for the Badgers. Clay is normally treated as the unquestioned number one back when healthy, but James White and Montee Ball might be better runners. If Wisconsin leans on Clay, TCU might be able to keep that running game well contained. They will still have to contend with tight end Lance Kendricks in the passing game however. If Wisconsin mixes up the tailbacks and uses all 3 guys, it will be very difficult for the Horned Frogs to shut them all down. If they can't slow the Badgers' offense, they will have to put up points when they have the ball. Andy Dalton is a great triggerman for the TCU offense, and the guys around him are good as well. Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce, and Bart Johnson are very good receivers for the spread offense they run, and Ed Wesley and Matt Tucker are very strong on the ground. The key for the Horned Frogs will be to keep defensive end J.J. Watt away from Dalton, and TCU should be able to put up just enough points to hold off a very good Badger team and finish the season undefeated.
Confidence Points - 3 points
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (1/1 8:30 p.m.)
Oklahoma 34, UConn 16 - This game is a bit of a mismatch for being a BCS game. The Huskies really don't belong in a top-notch bowl game, but as the Big East champs, they get the Fiesta Bowl berth. They don't have much of a dynamic offense, but Jordan Todman has been a very effective rusher during the late season run of victories for UConn. Zach Frazer has been ok at quarterback for the Huskies, but he is far from elite at the position. The Huskies have had a season to be proud of so far, but there will be no shame in losing in a bowl game they don't belong in in the first place. Oklahoma is loaded on offense with Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles all among the best in the Big 12 at their positions. Oklahoma has a pretty impressive defense as well, and the Sooners should completely outmatch the Huskies. This game could get ugly, but my score prediction gives the Huskies a chance to keep the game competitive. I expect UConn to play with a lot of emotion to try and prove to people they belong in a BCS game, but the talent of the Sooners will just be too much.
Confidence Points - 32 points
That's all of the New Year's Day matchups, and I'll break down the rest of the games in the next couple of days. Everyone have a safe and happy New Year, and enjoy some good football action.
Friday, December 31, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
College Bowl Picks - Week 2
Well, it was an interesting first week of bowl action in college football. I feel like I did pretty well in my picks for a lot of the games, but there were a couple I was way off on. It was embarrasing to watch a Frank Solich team be so miserable on defense as the Ohio Bobcats were destroyed by Troy. The Bobcats didn't cover anyone in the passing game, and really struggled to make open field tackles. Speaking of poor defensive performances, I think Tulsa just scored on Hawaii again. The Golden Hurricane rolled up 62 points on Hawaii in a game that went about the opposite of what I had expected. It was Tulsa that jumped out to a big early lead and Hawaii struggling to play catch-up in a blowout loss in their home state. At least BYU, FIU, and Boise State made me look like I know a little bit about what I say in this blog, not to mention Northern Illinois' strong bowl showing. Hopefully I can improve upon my 5-4 record from the first 9 games this week. Same as last week, I will include a final score guess and confidence point total with each prediction with the confidence points ranging from 1 to 35. And the games for this week:
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 p.m.)
West Virginia 26, North Carolina State 20 - This one should be a very competitive game. West Virginia has been a fantastic defensive team while NC State has been very solid on offense with Russell Wilson putting up prolific passing numbers. Wilson is a senior and will want to end his career with a win, but that Mountaineer defense will likely force him into some mistakes. Despite putting up 8 300-yard games this season, Wilson also threw 14 picks on the year, and West Virginia will put pressure on him to add to that number. The Mountaineers were 3rd in the FBS in sacks with 40, and they will do everything they can to get into that NC State backfield and disrupt that passing attack. Geno Smith isn't quite the passer that Wilson is, but he has limited the turnovers for WVU with just 6 INTs on the season. The offense for West Virginia has been far from explosive, but if they execute the way they're supposed to and the defense forces a couple errors by the Wolfpack offense, WVU should be able to score enough points to come out with a win.
Confidence Points - 21 points
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 p.m.)
Iowa 30, Missouri 27 - This one is a total gut call. There are a lot of factors working against the Hawkeyes in this game. Their top running back (Adam Robinson) and top wide receiver (Darell Johnson-Koulianos) are both out for this game with suspensions. Missouri won their final three games to slip back into the top 15 in the polls while Iowa finished on a 3 game skid that included an awful loss to Minnesota to knock them way out of the top 25, so momentum clearly favors the Tigers. Despite those factors, I think Iowa pulls off the upset. Ricky Stanzi has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this year with just 4 interceptions against 25 touchdowns. It also helps that Missouri won't have a ton of film on backup running back Marcus Coker who replaces Robinson. Neither of these teams average giving up even 20 points a game on defense, but I expect both to score a little more than that in this one. Missouri has an explosive offense led by Blaine Gabbert, and they always find a way to score points. Iowa isn't quite as explosive as Missouri, but they will have the element of surprise. This offense will be totally different that the one that Iowa has used for much of the season, and the replacements for the suspended players could really catch the Tigers off guard. Ricky Stanzi is the perfect leader to orchestrate a revamped offense for this game. Iowa has a bad taste in their mouths from how their season ended, and I think they come out fired up and surprise Mizzou.
Confidence Points - 5 points
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (12/29 2:30 p.m.)
Maryland 44, East Carolina 34 - This could be a heck of a shootout. East Carolina had the one of the worst defenses in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game, 118th out of 120 in fact. It was ugly in some of their losses as they averaged allowing 43 points per game. You don't see that very often out of a bowl team. The last team Maryland faced that was even close to that bad in points allowed, they dropped 62 points on the scoreboard in a drubbing of Wake Forest. With almost a month to prepare for this game, the Pirates' defense should be a little better than they normally are, but Maryland will still put up a decent point total. The one thing that can keep ECU in this game is their explosive offensive attack led by Boston College transfer Dominique Davis. Davis has put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard himself this season as the Pirates wouldn't be bowling without beiing able to match all the points they were giving up on the other side of the ball. Davis should be enough to help the Pirates hang around in this one, but that defense likely will be their undoing in a loss to the Terps.
Confidence Points - 27 points
Texas Bowl (12/29 6 p.m.)
Baylor 38, Illinois 33 - This one really could go either way, but I believe the motivation is going to be stronger for Baylor to win this game. The Bears are in their first bowl game in 16 years, and would like to win it to erase memories of their final three regular season games, all losses to ranked divisional foes. Illinois had a very up and down season, playing very well in tough losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Missouri, and in blowout wins over Purdue and Northwestern, but they played poorly in bad losses to Minnesota and Michigan. The Michigan loss was only bad because they failed to play any defense in the game. The Illini have shown an explosive running game behind all-american Mikel Leshoure and quarterback Nate Scheelhaase, but Scheelhaase will have to have a solid passing game agaisnt Baylor to keep the defense honest. Baylor hasn't played as well down the stretch as they would have liked, but they don't have any losses to bad teams like Minnesota. Only Texas Tech can say they beat Baylor and are not in the top 25. Robert Griffin III will be looking to show off his running and passing ability, and while neither team is overpowering on defense, it will be Baylor's offensive balance that will win them this game. Griffin and tailback Jay Finley can run very effectively, and Griffin has a number of targets he can go to in the passing game with 4 different receivers with 40 or more catches on the season. This game will be close, but I think Baylor is the team that comes out with the win in a game that is much closer to home for them than it is for Illinois.
Confidence Points - 14 points
Valero Alamo Bowl (12/29 9:15 p.m.)
Oklahoma State 40, Arizona 31 - Arizona slumps into this game as losers of 4 in a row after a great start to the season. Oklahoma State has only been defeated twice all seson, and it was by the two teams that squared off for the Big 12 title. These teams really don't seem evenly matched when you simply look at the wins and losses, but Arizona was as good as anyone over the season's first 8 or 9 weeks. Nick Foles got hurt, and the team struggled a little bit as they switched back and forth between Foles and backup Matt Scott, but it wasn't the offense that struggled. The Wildcats' defense that ranked in the top 10 in the nation in yards and points allowed through those first 8 games really struggled down the stretch with the potent offenses of Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State is on that level offensively. Their three star players (QB Brandon Weeden, HB Kendall Hunter, and WR Justin Blackmon) were all first-team all-Big 12 players. That trio is hard for any defense to stop, and Arizona is going to learn that the hard way in the Alamo Bowl. It shouldn't hurt that Arizona's head coach is the brother of Bob Stoops, who coaches OSU's biggest rival Oklahoma. It was the loss to the Sooners that knocked the Cowboys out of the conference title game, and squaring off against his brother's team could serve as a way to exact a little revenge.
Confidence Points - 10 points
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 12 p.m.)
Southern Methodist 30, Army 14 - SMU has got a very strong balanced offense behind Zach Line's running and Kyle Padron's passing, and it will be difficult to slow that attack down for Army. Even though this game is called the Armed Forces Bowl, no one at Army came into this season thinking about a bowl game. The biggest game the Black Knights play each season is the one against Navy, which they lost badly a few weeks ago. It will be difficult to come out focused and ready for this game. Army runs a triple-option offense, but it is nowhere near as dynamic as versions run at Air Force, Navy, or Georgia Tech, and I expect SMU to be able to slow it down some. I don't expect Army to do the same to a very dynamic June Jones offense for the Mustangs. SMU won the first bowl they had played in 25 years last season, and a win here to get to 8-6 would be another step forward for a program that has risen from the ashes. Throw in the fact that this game will be played in SMU's home stadium and it just becomes difficult to see Army winning this game.
Confidence Points - 13
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20 p.m.)
Kansas State 24, Syracuse 16 - This is a game between two very similar teams. Both are stingy against the pass and weak against the run on defense, and both are solid rushing teams and mediocre passing teams on offense. The game isn't far from home for Syracuse as it is the first bowl game at the new Yankee Stadium in New York. Syracuse and head coach Doug Marrone would love to christen the stadium with a big bowl win for the in-state team, but Daniel Thomas will likely have something to say about that. While these teams are very similar across the board, no one on Syracuse's team is as good as Daniel Thomas. He should be the difference in a very hard fought, smashmouth football game. I might be giving the Wildcats a little more credit than they deserve with how much confidence I have in this pick, but I still don't buy into the Syracuse Orange as a legitimate solid bowl team.
Confidence Points - 29 points
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40 p.m.)
North Carolina 31, Tennessee 26 - Both of these teams feel lucky to be here at this point after the way their seasons started. Tennessee started off 2-6 before rattling off 4 straight wins to close the season with bowl eligibility in coach Derek Dooley's first season. They really started to find their rhythm when they switched quarterbacks from Matt Simms to Tyler Bray. North Carolina's struggles were more off the field as several Tar Heels were suspended for an academic scandal involving tutors writing papers for players and some of the players having improper contact with agents. At least 14 players missed at least one game for UNC, while 4 were ruled ineligible permanently. Many of their best defensive players were involved, including big-time NFL prospect defensive lineman Marvin Austin. Most people wrote off UNC as the scandal broke in the media. A team that was a major ACC title contender was suddenly being expected to fall apart, and after an 0-2 start against LSU and Georgia Tech, they could have packed it in and made that collapse a reality. These kids didn't do that. They battled back from the poor start and went 7-3 the rest of the way with a couple big wins along the way over Florida State and Clemson. They have been extremely scrappy so far, and it feels like no matter who is sidelined for this team, the players who take the field are going to scratch and claw for the win if they can. Tennessee hasn't had that same fight in them this season, and after battling back to get to 6-6 I think the Vols feel like they have turned this season into a success already. North Carolina isn't as content, and I think the Tar Heels will pull off another victory in this one, even in Tennessee at LP Field.
Confidence Points - 24 points
Bridgepoint Education Hoilday Bowl (12/30 10 p.m.)
Nebraska 38, Washington 21 - This game likely won't be a whole lot different than the first meetings between the two schools. It might be a little closer since Washington has seen what Nebraska can do firsthand, and also has had a few weeks to gameplan for the 'Huskers, but the talent gap is still too wide. Nebraska absolutely shut down Jake Locker in the first meeting while Taylor Martinez ran wild for them. The Huskies should certainly have some motivation to not get destroyed by Big Red again, but it might be tough to avoid. I think Martinez will be close to 100 percent for the first time in several games, and it will be a huge boost for the Nebraska offense, which should win easily again.
Confidence Points - 35 points
Meineke Car Care Bowl (12/31 12 p.m.)
South Florida 27, Clemson 23 - This one could be a sloppy game, and I'm really not sure who is going to win. Both teams have a penchant for playing close, lower scoring games, and both have questions at quarterback. For Clemson, qb Kyle Parker likely is already thinking about baseball season after a 6-6 campaign for the football team. Parker was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in June, but passed on an extra $800,000 to come back for one more season at Clemson before starting that baseball career in Denver. South Florida, meanwhile, has questions due to injury. It seems unlikely that B.J. Daniels will play in the bowl game, which would make the inexperienced Bobby Eveld the starter. Both defenses in this game have been strong all year, which will make the team that avoids giving the ball away more likely to pull this one out. Clemson will likely load up against the running game of Moise Plancher to force USF to throw with Eveld. It will be critical for the Bulls to block Da'Quan Bowers in the passing game so that Eveld has time to be effecive. Bowers led the nation with 15.5 sacks this season, and South Florida will do everything they can to block him. If Clemson uses some creative blitzes, they could really wreak havoc on the young qb, but I don't expect them to do so. The Tigers have been effective so far with the 4 man rush thanks to Bowers incredible talent, and a change in scheme now seems unlikely. Coaching adjustments will likely be the key in a very tough game to pick, and for reasons I really don't understand I like South Florida.
Confidence Points - 2 points
Hyundai Sun Bowl (12/31 2 p.m.)
Notre Dame 28, Miami FL 26 - This is a game that brings back together old rivals from the late 80's when both of these programs were among the nation's elite. They haven't played one another in 20 years now, and a Sun Bowl matchup with both sitting at 7-5 is hardly a way to resurrect a rivalry. Notre Dame looked headed for home without a bowl game as they entered the Utah game coming off a very disappointing loss to Tulsa that cost them starting quarterback Dayne Crist for the season. They were 4-5 with games remaining against a 1-loss Utah team and a very tough USC team that they seemed unlikely to win. This team really came together, however, starting with a blowout win in that Utah game in which they held the Utes to almost no offensive production for much of the day. Brian Kelly really got this team playing with confidence and a little bit of the old Notre Dame swagger despite losing several key offensive players to injury. Miami, on the other hand, spent most of the season ranked and was 7-3 headed into their final 2 games but lost both of them to Virginia Tech and South Florida. Head coach Randy Shannon was axed after the disappointing campaign, and I don't expect the Hurricanes to respond well to that in this bowl game. Quarterback Jacory Harris looked to Shannon as a father figure, and his up and down play really has been the story for this team. When he plays well, the team plays well, and when he doesn't, the team doesn't (13 TD-5 INT in 5 wins as starter, 1 TD-7 INT in 4 losses). I don't expect him to play well in this bowl game. Notre Dame will force a couple of interceptions, and all the Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry in the world will likely not be enough to overcome those errors. I think Brian Kelly gets another win out of this Irish team and a solid 8-5 showing in his debut season.
Confidence Points - 22 points
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 p.m.)
Georgia 37, Central Florida 20 - I am pretty confident that the Bulldogs will pull of this win to end with a winning record for the season. Ever since A.J. Green came back from his 4 game suspension the Bulldogs have been a different team. They lost his first game back to Colorado while they tried to incorporate him into the offense and get the rust off him, but they went 5-2 after that only losing to Florida in overtime and Auburn in a game where they led by 2 touchdowns in the first half. The Bulldogs can flat out score points, and UCF is hardly a dominant defensive football team. They do have a fair amount of offensive firepower with quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who can run and throw well, and running backs Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray up against a Georgia defense that really struggled agaisnt the run the last two regular season games against GT and Auburn. The matchup does pit the two highest rated freshman qbs in the country in passing efficiency, but the big game experience around Murray for Georgia in A.J. Green and Washaun Ealey could be a huge boost for the Bulldogs. I expect Georgia to win this game, and look very good doing so.
Confidence Points - 34 points
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30 p.m.)
South Carolina 23, Florida State 19 - Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses in their respective conference title games. Both boast strong defenses, and both have pretty balanced offenses. Florida State favors Christian Ponder's passing attack just slightly, while South Carolina slightly favors the running game of Marcus Lattimore, but make no mistake, both of these teams can run and pass. The biggest question of this game will be whether or not Christian Ponder can play for the Seminoles. He's been banged up for much of this season and has had fluid drained from his elbow on his throwing arm several times over the past couple months. If Ponder plays, the 'Noles become much more dangerous. If he doesn't, the Gamecocks have a major advantage. I love this matchup as Steve Spurrier has a great history with Florida State from his days coaching the Gators, and Jimbo Fisher has really put his stamp on this Seminole team and had a strong first year to get into this game. I think the hard-nosed running of Marcus Lattimore will be the biggest difference in this game. Lattimore is the best back Spurrier has had in years, and he is really unlike anyone Florida State has already played against this season. You can watch film to get a good idea of how to stop someone, but you can't have Marcus Lattimore on your practice field every day. His punishing running style will wear down this FSU defense, and as long as Stephen Garcia doesn't make any critical mistakes in this game, I like the Gamecocks to come out on top.
Confidence Points - 6 points
That's all the picks for this week. Enjoy the next week of bowl games, there are some good ones. Everyone have a safe and happy new year, and make one of your resolutions to watch more football.
Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 p.m.)
West Virginia 26, North Carolina State 20 - This one should be a very competitive game. West Virginia has been a fantastic defensive team while NC State has been very solid on offense with Russell Wilson putting up prolific passing numbers. Wilson is a senior and will want to end his career with a win, but that Mountaineer defense will likely force him into some mistakes. Despite putting up 8 300-yard games this season, Wilson also threw 14 picks on the year, and West Virginia will put pressure on him to add to that number. The Mountaineers were 3rd in the FBS in sacks with 40, and they will do everything they can to get into that NC State backfield and disrupt that passing attack. Geno Smith isn't quite the passer that Wilson is, but he has limited the turnovers for WVU with just 6 INTs on the season. The offense for West Virginia has been far from explosive, but if they execute the way they're supposed to and the defense forces a couple errors by the Wolfpack offense, WVU should be able to score enough points to come out with a win.
Confidence Points - 21 points
Insight Bowl (12/28 10 p.m.)
Iowa 30, Missouri 27 - This one is a total gut call. There are a lot of factors working against the Hawkeyes in this game. Their top running back (Adam Robinson) and top wide receiver (Darell Johnson-Koulianos) are both out for this game with suspensions. Missouri won their final three games to slip back into the top 15 in the polls while Iowa finished on a 3 game skid that included an awful loss to Minnesota to knock them way out of the top 25, so momentum clearly favors the Tigers. Despite those factors, I think Iowa pulls off the upset. Ricky Stanzi has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this year with just 4 interceptions against 25 touchdowns. It also helps that Missouri won't have a ton of film on backup running back Marcus Coker who replaces Robinson. Neither of these teams average giving up even 20 points a game on defense, but I expect both to score a little more than that in this one. Missouri has an explosive offense led by Blaine Gabbert, and they always find a way to score points. Iowa isn't quite as explosive as Missouri, but they will have the element of surprise. This offense will be totally different that the one that Iowa has used for much of the season, and the replacements for the suspended players could really catch the Tigers off guard. Ricky Stanzi is the perfect leader to orchestrate a revamped offense for this game. Iowa has a bad taste in their mouths from how their season ended, and I think they come out fired up and surprise Mizzou.
Confidence Points - 5 points
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (12/29 2:30 p.m.)
Maryland 44, East Carolina 34 - This could be a heck of a shootout. East Carolina had the one of the worst defenses in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game, 118th out of 120 in fact. It was ugly in some of their losses as they averaged allowing 43 points per game. You don't see that very often out of a bowl team. The last team Maryland faced that was even close to that bad in points allowed, they dropped 62 points on the scoreboard in a drubbing of Wake Forest. With almost a month to prepare for this game, the Pirates' defense should be a little better than they normally are, but Maryland will still put up a decent point total. The one thing that can keep ECU in this game is their explosive offensive attack led by Boston College transfer Dominique Davis. Davis has put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard himself this season as the Pirates wouldn't be bowling without beiing able to match all the points they were giving up on the other side of the ball. Davis should be enough to help the Pirates hang around in this one, but that defense likely will be their undoing in a loss to the Terps.
Confidence Points - 27 points
Texas Bowl (12/29 6 p.m.)
Baylor 38, Illinois 33 - This one really could go either way, but I believe the motivation is going to be stronger for Baylor to win this game. The Bears are in their first bowl game in 16 years, and would like to win it to erase memories of their final three regular season games, all losses to ranked divisional foes. Illinois had a very up and down season, playing very well in tough losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Missouri, and in blowout wins over Purdue and Northwestern, but they played poorly in bad losses to Minnesota and Michigan. The Michigan loss was only bad because they failed to play any defense in the game. The Illini have shown an explosive running game behind all-american Mikel Leshoure and quarterback Nate Scheelhaase, but Scheelhaase will have to have a solid passing game agaisnt Baylor to keep the defense honest. Baylor hasn't played as well down the stretch as they would have liked, but they don't have any losses to bad teams like Minnesota. Only Texas Tech can say they beat Baylor and are not in the top 25. Robert Griffin III will be looking to show off his running and passing ability, and while neither team is overpowering on defense, it will be Baylor's offensive balance that will win them this game. Griffin and tailback Jay Finley can run very effectively, and Griffin has a number of targets he can go to in the passing game with 4 different receivers with 40 or more catches on the season. This game will be close, but I think Baylor is the team that comes out with the win in a game that is much closer to home for them than it is for Illinois.
Confidence Points - 14 points
Valero Alamo Bowl (12/29 9:15 p.m.)
Oklahoma State 40, Arizona 31 - Arizona slumps into this game as losers of 4 in a row after a great start to the season. Oklahoma State has only been defeated twice all seson, and it was by the two teams that squared off for the Big 12 title. These teams really don't seem evenly matched when you simply look at the wins and losses, but Arizona was as good as anyone over the season's first 8 or 9 weeks. Nick Foles got hurt, and the team struggled a little bit as they switched back and forth between Foles and backup Matt Scott, but it wasn't the offense that struggled. The Wildcats' defense that ranked in the top 10 in the nation in yards and points allowed through those first 8 games really struggled down the stretch with the potent offenses of Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State is on that level offensively. Their three star players (QB Brandon Weeden, HB Kendall Hunter, and WR Justin Blackmon) were all first-team all-Big 12 players. That trio is hard for any defense to stop, and Arizona is going to learn that the hard way in the Alamo Bowl. It shouldn't hurt that Arizona's head coach is the brother of Bob Stoops, who coaches OSU's biggest rival Oklahoma. It was the loss to the Sooners that knocked the Cowboys out of the conference title game, and squaring off against his brother's team could serve as a way to exact a little revenge.
Confidence Points - 10 points
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 12 p.m.)
Southern Methodist 30, Army 14 - SMU has got a very strong balanced offense behind Zach Line's running and Kyle Padron's passing, and it will be difficult to slow that attack down for Army. Even though this game is called the Armed Forces Bowl, no one at Army came into this season thinking about a bowl game. The biggest game the Black Knights play each season is the one against Navy, which they lost badly a few weeks ago. It will be difficult to come out focused and ready for this game. Army runs a triple-option offense, but it is nowhere near as dynamic as versions run at Air Force, Navy, or Georgia Tech, and I expect SMU to be able to slow it down some. I don't expect Army to do the same to a very dynamic June Jones offense for the Mustangs. SMU won the first bowl they had played in 25 years last season, and a win here to get to 8-6 would be another step forward for a program that has risen from the ashes. Throw in the fact that this game will be played in SMU's home stadium and it just becomes difficult to see Army winning this game.
Confidence Points - 13
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20 p.m.)
Kansas State 24, Syracuse 16 - This is a game between two very similar teams. Both are stingy against the pass and weak against the run on defense, and both are solid rushing teams and mediocre passing teams on offense. The game isn't far from home for Syracuse as it is the first bowl game at the new Yankee Stadium in New York. Syracuse and head coach Doug Marrone would love to christen the stadium with a big bowl win for the in-state team, but Daniel Thomas will likely have something to say about that. While these teams are very similar across the board, no one on Syracuse's team is as good as Daniel Thomas. He should be the difference in a very hard fought, smashmouth football game. I might be giving the Wildcats a little more credit than they deserve with how much confidence I have in this pick, but I still don't buy into the Syracuse Orange as a legitimate solid bowl team.
Confidence Points - 29 points
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40 p.m.)
North Carolina 31, Tennessee 26 - Both of these teams feel lucky to be here at this point after the way their seasons started. Tennessee started off 2-6 before rattling off 4 straight wins to close the season with bowl eligibility in coach Derek Dooley's first season. They really started to find their rhythm when they switched quarterbacks from Matt Simms to Tyler Bray. North Carolina's struggles were more off the field as several Tar Heels were suspended for an academic scandal involving tutors writing papers for players and some of the players having improper contact with agents. At least 14 players missed at least one game for UNC, while 4 were ruled ineligible permanently. Many of their best defensive players were involved, including big-time NFL prospect defensive lineman Marvin Austin. Most people wrote off UNC as the scandal broke in the media. A team that was a major ACC title contender was suddenly being expected to fall apart, and after an 0-2 start against LSU and Georgia Tech, they could have packed it in and made that collapse a reality. These kids didn't do that. They battled back from the poor start and went 7-3 the rest of the way with a couple big wins along the way over Florida State and Clemson. They have been extremely scrappy so far, and it feels like no matter who is sidelined for this team, the players who take the field are going to scratch and claw for the win if they can. Tennessee hasn't had that same fight in them this season, and after battling back to get to 6-6 I think the Vols feel like they have turned this season into a success already. North Carolina isn't as content, and I think the Tar Heels will pull off another victory in this one, even in Tennessee at LP Field.
Confidence Points - 24 points
Bridgepoint Education Hoilday Bowl (12/30 10 p.m.)
Nebraska 38, Washington 21 - This game likely won't be a whole lot different than the first meetings between the two schools. It might be a little closer since Washington has seen what Nebraska can do firsthand, and also has had a few weeks to gameplan for the 'Huskers, but the talent gap is still too wide. Nebraska absolutely shut down Jake Locker in the first meeting while Taylor Martinez ran wild for them. The Huskies should certainly have some motivation to not get destroyed by Big Red again, but it might be tough to avoid. I think Martinez will be close to 100 percent for the first time in several games, and it will be a huge boost for the Nebraska offense, which should win easily again.
Confidence Points - 35 points
Meineke Car Care Bowl (12/31 12 p.m.)
South Florida 27, Clemson 23 - This one could be a sloppy game, and I'm really not sure who is going to win. Both teams have a penchant for playing close, lower scoring games, and both have questions at quarterback. For Clemson, qb Kyle Parker likely is already thinking about baseball season after a 6-6 campaign for the football team. Parker was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in June, but passed on an extra $800,000 to come back for one more season at Clemson before starting that baseball career in Denver. South Florida, meanwhile, has questions due to injury. It seems unlikely that B.J. Daniels will play in the bowl game, which would make the inexperienced Bobby Eveld the starter. Both defenses in this game have been strong all year, which will make the team that avoids giving the ball away more likely to pull this one out. Clemson will likely load up against the running game of Moise Plancher to force USF to throw with Eveld. It will be critical for the Bulls to block Da'Quan Bowers in the passing game so that Eveld has time to be effecive. Bowers led the nation with 15.5 sacks this season, and South Florida will do everything they can to block him. If Clemson uses some creative blitzes, they could really wreak havoc on the young qb, but I don't expect them to do so. The Tigers have been effective so far with the 4 man rush thanks to Bowers incredible talent, and a change in scheme now seems unlikely. Coaching adjustments will likely be the key in a very tough game to pick, and for reasons I really don't understand I like South Florida.
Confidence Points - 2 points
Hyundai Sun Bowl (12/31 2 p.m.)
Notre Dame 28, Miami FL 26 - This is a game that brings back together old rivals from the late 80's when both of these programs were among the nation's elite. They haven't played one another in 20 years now, and a Sun Bowl matchup with both sitting at 7-5 is hardly a way to resurrect a rivalry. Notre Dame looked headed for home without a bowl game as they entered the Utah game coming off a very disappointing loss to Tulsa that cost them starting quarterback Dayne Crist for the season. They were 4-5 with games remaining against a 1-loss Utah team and a very tough USC team that they seemed unlikely to win. This team really came together, however, starting with a blowout win in that Utah game in which they held the Utes to almost no offensive production for much of the day. Brian Kelly really got this team playing with confidence and a little bit of the old Notre Dame swagger despite losing several key offensive players to injury. Miami, on the other hand, spent most of the season ranked and was 7-3 headed into their final 2 games but lost both of them to Virginia Tech and South Florida. Head coach Randy Shannon was axed after the disappointing campaign, and I don't expect the Hurricanes to respond well to that in this bowl game. Quarterback Jacory Harris looked to Shannon as a father figure, and his up and down play really has been the story for this team. When he plays well, the team plays well, and when he doesn't, the team doesn't (13 TD-5 INT in 5 wins as starter, 1 TD-7 INT in 4 losses). I don't expect him to play well in this bowl game. Notre Dame will force a couple of interceptions, and all the Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry in the world will likely not be enough to overcome those errors. I think Brian Kelly gets another win out of this Irish team and a solid 8-5 showing in his debut season.
Confidence Points - 22 points
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 p.m.)
Georgia 37, Central Florida 20 - I am pretty confident that the Bulldogs will pull of this win to end with a winning record for the season. Ever since A.J. Green came back from his 4 game suspension the Bulldogs have been a different team. They lost his first game back to Colorado while they tried to incorporate him into the offense and get the rust off him, but they went 5-2 after that only losing to Florida in overtime and Auburn in a game where they led by 2 touchdowns in the first half. The Bulldogs can flat out score points, and UCF is hardly a dominant defensive football team. They do have a fair amount of offensive firepower with quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who can run and throw well, and running backs Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray up against a Georgia defense that really struggled agaisnt the run the last two regular season games against GT and Auburn. The matchup does pit the two highest rated freshman qbs in the country in passing efficiency, but the big game experience around Murray for Georgia in A.J. Green and Washaun Ealey could be a huge boost for the Bulldogs. I expect Georgia to win this game, and look very good doing so.
Confidence Points - 34 points
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30 p.m.)
South Carolina 23, Florida State 19 - Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses in their respective conference title games. Both boast strong defenses, and both have pretty balanced offenses. Florida State favors Christian Ponder's passing attack just slightly, while South Carolina slightly favors the running game of Marcus Lattimore, but make no mistake, both of these teams can run and pass. The biggest question of this game will be whether or not Christian Ponder can play for the Seminoles. He's been banged up for much of this season and has had fluid drained from his elbow on his throwing arm several times over the past couple months. If Ponder plays, the 'Noles become much more dangerous. If he doesn't, the Gamecocks have a major advantage. I love this matchup as Steve Spurrier has a great history with Florida State from his days coaching the Gators, and Jimbo Fisher has really put his stamp on this Seminole team and had a strong first year to get into this game. I think the hard-nosed running of Marcus Lattimore will be the biggest difference in this game. Lattimore is the best back Spurrier has had in years, and he is really unlike anyone Florida State has already played against this season. You can watch film to get a good idea of how to stop someone, but you can't have Marcus Lattimore on your practice field every day. His punishing running style will wear down this FSU defense, and as long as Stephen Garcia doesn't make any critical mistakes in this game, I like the Gamecocks to come out on top.
Confidence Points - 6 points
That's all the picks for this week. Enjoy the next week of bowl games, there are some good ones. Everyone have a safe and happy new year, and make one of your resolutions to watch more football.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Bowl Predictions: Bowl Week 1
It's bowl season once again and every team that has earned a bid gets one final chance to augment their season with one extra win or diminish it with an extra loss. It's hard to say the bowl system isn't flawed when 70 out of the FBS's 120 teams get to play in a bowl game, but it still makes for some fun and interesting matchups. Things get underway this Saturday with three bowl games to kick off the festivities. For anyone unfamiliar with ESPN's college bowl mania game, with each bowl pick I give, I will include a confidence point number to express how confident I am in the pick. With 35 bowl games slated to be played, 35 points will go to the game I am most certain of and 1 point on the game that I am least certain of. Without further ado, here are my first few bowl picks with an explanation of why for each game.
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. BYU (12/18 2 p.m.)
BYU 33, UTEP 17 - This is a game between two teams headed in the opposite direction. The Cougars opened the season 1-4 before getting things straightened out behind freshman quarterback Jake Heaps. The team finished on a 5-2 run with Heaps really coming into his own in the final 4 games, and the defense came together as well. Heaps averaged almost 250 yards a game over the final 4 contests and posted a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in the process. The Cougar defense allowed only 10 points per game over that stretch after allowing 27 a game for the first 8 outings. As BYU has come together, UTEP has fallen apart. The Miners opened 5-1, then finished 1-5. Conference-USA is hardly daunting, and the weak conference record leads me to believe they will be overmatched in Albequerque by the Cougars. I expect BYU to win easily.
Confidence Points - 30
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (12/18 5:30 p.m.)
NIU 30, Fresno State 23 - Northern Illinois has been fantastic for much of the season, but they were absolutely shocked by Miami (OH) in the MAC title game. The Huskies will be looking to prove that their 10-win season was no fluke, and Fresno will have a hard time stopping them. The Bulldogs have a great pass rush, but NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish will not be a stationary target. Harnish ran for 764 yards this season while star tailback Chad Spann went for over 1,250 yards while scoring 20 rushing touchdowns. It will be on Fresno's defense to slow that running game down. The Redhawks of Miami were able to do so in the MAC Championship, but few others have been able to do the same. In most of these lower bowl games, the deciding factor will be motivation, and it would appear that NIU should have more of that than Fresno. The Bulldogs relish opportunities to take on BCS conference schools in bowl games, and NIU is not even close to being one of those. The Huskies, meanwhile, would secure a school record 11th win if they can take down the Bulldogs. While it might be difficult to focus on the task at hand after the disappointing conference title loss, and then the loss of head coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, I still think this NIU team will rally around the idea that this is the biggest game of their season. I think the Huskies win by a touchdown with that fantastic running game.
Confidence Points - 26
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy (12/18 9 p.m.)
Ohio 27, Troy 17 - Neither team in this game has been overly impressive this season, but both have at least been consistent offensively. Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson set the school record for career touchdown passes this season, and the team had won 7 straight games before a huge letdown against Kent State knocked the Bobcats out of the MAC title game. Ohio will be looking for revenge in their bowl game, and head coach Frank Solich has plenty of bowl experience from his time at Nebraska. Troy is no slouch offensively either. Trojan qb Corey Robinson led the Sun Belt in passing yards and TD tosses, but his penchant for picks will likely be Troy's undoing against an Ohio team that simply will want to win this game more.
Confidence Points - 18
Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville vs. Southern Miss (12/21 8 p.m.)
Louisville 26, Southern Miss 17 - This game will be all about Louisville's Bilal Powell. He will run through, over, and around the Southern Miss defenders en route to a very good game and a big Louisville win. Southern Miss has shown some deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball all year long, and Louisville will certainly be willing to take advantage of those problems. Powell has been one of the best backs in all of college football, and Louisville has played solid defense this season under new head coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals haven't been to a bowl game since 2006 when they were viewed as a powerhouse program and a perennial Big East title contender, and a bowl win to cap this season would be a nice step towards getting back to that level.
Confidence Points - 19
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl : Boise State vs. Utah (12/22 8 p.m.)
Boise State 45, Utah 21 - The Broncos will need some motivating from head coach Chris Petersen to get up for this game after being hopeful of a BCS bid for much of the season. I expect Petersen to have his team ready, though. Utah has not been the same team over the last 3 or 4 games of the season, and on top of that, their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn will not be playing in the bowl game against Boise due to injury. The Broncos will come out prepared and angry, and also ready to prove that their loss to Nevada was an anomaly and not the way they normally play. Kellen Moore, Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Jeremy Avery, and Doug Martin are just too many weapons for a good defense to contain, let alone a defense that has struggled of late. I think Boise will roll in this game, causing several mistakes by Utah's backup quarterback and putting up plenty of points as usual.
Confidence Points - 28
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Navy (12/23 8 p.m.)
Navy 28, San Diego State 24 - This one should be a great game. The Aztecs are enjoying a huge breakthrough season under Brady Hoke after going 10-26 over the past 3 seasons. Quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman have given SDSU a very strong balanced offense. Navy has also been exceptional on the offensive side of the ball, but balance has not been a strength. The Midshipmen run a triple-option offense run by experienced qb Ricky Dobbs who has helped the Middies to some big point totals and big wins this season. The Aztec D has been strong against the run this season but has really let them down in some big games against TCU and Utah. I expect Navy to have some success running the ball, but I also expect them to catch SDSU loading the box against the run and hit on a couple of unexpected downfield passes. the big plays will be the key to the game and I expect Navy to win a close one on the Aztecs' home field.
Confidence Points - 11
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa (12/24 8 p.m.)
Hawaii 48, Tulsa 34 - This game should be very entertaining as both offenses can put up quite a few points, but Hawaii is simply the better team. Bryant Moniz has lit up some defenses that are a bit better than that of Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane will likely get torched as well. With dangerous receivers like Keloha Pilares and Greg Salas, this game will be tough for Tulsa to hang around in. I expect the Rainbow Warriors to jump out to a lead early, and only a couple of Tulsa garbage time touchdowns will make this final score as close as I predict.
Confidence Points - 31
Little Caesar's Bowl - Florida International vs. Toledo (12/26 8:30 p.m.)
FIU 34, Toledo 28 - FIU certainly had its struggles early this season with an 0-4 start, but they were very competitive in losses to teams from higher leagues. Quarterback Wesley Carroll had a really strong year for the Panthers, and their offense seems to have really hit its stride of late. Facing off against a Toledo team that tied for the national lead in takeaways could present a challenge for that offense though. I expect this one to come down to who wants the game more, and I expect that to be FIU. Toledo has been to a decent number of bowl games over the past decade, and the Little Caesar's Bowl is hardly a desirable postseason location for them. For FIU, however, it's the first bowl game the school has ever been invited to, and a win would cap off a phenomenal year for the program. I expect the Panthers to get it done.
Confidence Points - 17
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Georgia Tech (12/27 5 p.m.)
Georgia Tech 20, Air Force 17 - This game is really interesting because both teams play the same offense. One triple-option team is matched against another and these two squads rank first and second in the country in rush yards per game. Many people have written off the Yellow Jackets after a 6-6 season that certainly didn't live up to expectations, but Air Force also is disappointed by their final regular season record. After a strong start to the season, the Falcons lost badly to conference rivals TCU and Utah to really diminish their early season accomplishments. They did finish the year on a 3 game win streak, but that won't matter after a month layoff before the game. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson simply knows how to beat the Falcons. As head coach at Navy, he beat Air Force 5 straight times, and I expect him to continue that streak at Tech. It should be a very interesting game to watch, but I think the Yellow Jackets pull it out.
Confidence Points - 12
That's all of the games for this week, next week I'll have more picks for the upcoming bowl games. Everyone have a safe and happy holiday this week, and enjoy some exciting football action.
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. BYU (12/18 2 p.m.)
BYU 33, UTEP 17 - This is a game between two teams headed in the opposite direction. The Cougars opened the season 1-4 before getting things straightened out behind freshman quarterback Jake Heaps. The team finished on a 5-2 run with Heaps really coming into his own in the final 4 games, and the defense came together as well. Heaps averaged almost 250 yards a game over the final 4 contests and posted a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in the process. The Cougar defense allowed only 10 points per game over that stretch after allowing 27 a game for the first 8 outings. As BYU has come together, UTEP has fallen apart. The Miners opened 5-1, then finished 1-5. Conference-USA is hardly daunting, and the weak conference record leads me to believe they will be overmatched in Albequerque by the Cougars. I expect BYU to win easily.
Confidence Points - 30
uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (12/18 5:30 p.m.)
NIU 30, Fresno State 23 - Northern Illinois has been fantastic for much of the season, but they were absolutely shocked by Miami (OH) in the MAC title game. The Huskies will be looking to prove that their 10-win season was no fluke, and Fresno will have a hard time stopping them. The Bulldogs have a great pass rush, but NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish will not be a stationary target. Harnish ran for 764 yards this season while star tailback Chad Spann went for over 1,250 yards while scoring 20 rushing touchdowns. It will be on Fresno's defense to slow that running game down. The Redhawks of Miami were able to do so in the MAC Championship, but few others have been able to do the same. In most of these lower bowl games, the deciding factor will be motivation, and it would appear that NIU should have more of that than Fresno. The Bulldogs relish opportunities to take on BCS conference schools in bowl games, and NIU is not even close to being one of those. The Huskies, meanwhile, would secure a school record 11th win if they can take down the Bulldogs. While it might be difficult to focus on the task at hand after the disappointing conference title loss, and then the loss of head coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, I still think this NIU team will rally around the idea that this is the biggest game of their season. I think the Huskies win by a touchdown with that fantastic running game.
Confidence Points - 26
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy (12/18 9 p.m.)
Ohio 27, Troy 17 - Neither team in this game has been overly impressive this season, but both have at least been consistent offensively. Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson set the school record for career touchdown passes this season, and the team had won 7 straight games before a huge letdown against Kent State knocked the Bobcats out of the MAC title game. Ohio will be looking for revenge in their bowl game, and head coach Frank Solich has plenty of bowl experience from his time at Nebraska. Troy is no slouch offensively either. Trojan qb Corey Robinson led the Sun Belt in passing yards and TD tosses, but his penchant for picks will likely be Troy's undoing against an Ohio team that simply will want to win this game more.
Confidence Points - 18
Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville vs. Southern Miss (12/21 8 p.m.)
Louisville 26, Southern Miss 17 - This game will be all about Louisville's Bilal Powell. He will run through, over, and around the Southern Miss defenders en route to a very good game and a big Louisville win. Southern Miss has shown some deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball all year long, and Louisville will certainly be willing to take advantage of those problems. Powell has been one of the best backs in all of college football, and Louisville has played solid defense this season under new head coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals haven't been to a bowl game since 2006 when they were viewed as a powerhouse program and a perennial Big East title contender, and a bowl win to cap this season would be a nice step towards getting back to that level.
Confidence Points - 19
MAACO Las Vegas Bowl : Boise State vs. Utah (12/22 8 p.m.)
Boise State 45, Utah 21 - The Broncos will need some motivating from head coach Chris Petersen to get up for this game after being hopeful of a BCS bid for much of the season. I expect Petersen to have his team ready, though. Utah has not been the same team over the last 3 or 4 games of the season, and on top of that, their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn will not be playing in the bowl game against Boise due to injury. The Broncos will come out prepared and angry, and also ready to prove that their loss to Nevada was an anomaly and not the way they normally play. Kellen Moore, Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Jeremy Avery, and Doug Martin are just too many weapons for a good defense to contain, let alone a defense that has struggled of late. I think Boise will roll in this game, causing several mistakes by Utah's backup quarterback and putting up plenty of points as usual.
Confidence Points - 28
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Navy (12/23 8 p.m.)
Navy 28, San Diego State 24 - This one should be a great game. The Aztecs are enjoying a huge breakthrough season under Brady Hoke after going 10-26 over the past 3 seasons. Quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman have given SDSU a very strong balanced offense. Navy has also been exceptional on the offensive side of the ball, but balance has not been a strength. The Midshipmen run a triple-option offense run by experienced qb Ricky Dobbs who has helped the Middies to some big point totals and big wins this season. The Aztec D has been strong against the run this season but has really let them down in some big games against TCU and Utah. I expect Navy to have some success running the ball, but I also expect them to catch SDSU loading the box against the run and hit on a couple of unexpected downfield passes. the big plays will be the key to the game and I expect Navy to win a close one on the Aztecs' home field.
Confidence Points - 11
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa (12/24 8 p.m.)
Hawaii 48, Tulsa 34 - This game should be very entertaining as both offenses can put up quite a few points, but Hawaii is simply the better team. Bryant Moniz has lit up some defenses that are a bit better than that of Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane will likely get torched as well. With dangerous receivers like Keloha Pilares and Greg Salas, this game will be tough for Tulsa to hang around in. I expect the Rainbow Warriors to jump out to a lead early, and only a couple of Tulsa garbage time touchdowns will make this final score as close as I predict.
Confidence Points - 31
Little Caesar's Bowl - Florida International vs. Toledo (12/26 8:30 p.m.)
FIU 34, Toledo 28 - FIU certainly had its struggles early this season with an 0-4 start, but they were very competitive in losses to teams from higher leagues. Quarterback Wesley Carroll had a really strong year for the Panthers, and their offense seems to have really hit its stride of late. Facing off against a Toledo team that tied for the national lead in takeaways could present a challenge for that offense though. I expect this one to come down to who wants the game more, and I expect that to be FIU. Toledo has been to a decent number of bowl games over the past decade, and the Little Caesar's Bowl is hardly a desirable postseason location for them. For FIU, however, it's the first bowl game the school has ever been invited to, and a win would cap off a phenomenal year for the program. I expect the Panthers to get it done.
Confidence Points - 17
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Georgia Tech (12/27 5 p.m.)
Georgia Tech 20, Air Force 17 - This game is really interesting because both teams play the same offense. One triple-option team is matched against another and these two squads rank first and second in the country in rush yards per game. Many people have written off the Yellow Jackets after a 6-6 season that certainly didn't live up to expectations, but Air Force also is disappointed by their final regular season record. After a strong start to the season, the Falcons lost badly to conference rivals TCU and Utah to really diminish their early season accomplishments. They did finish the year on a 3 game win streak, but that won't matter after a month layoff before the game. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson simply knows how to beat the Falcons. As head coach at Navy, he beat Air Force 5 straight times, and I expect him to continue that streak at Tech. It should be a very interesting game to watch, but I think the Yellow Jackets pull it out.
Confidence Points - 12
That's all of the games for this week, next week I'll have more picks for the upcoming bowl games. Everyone have a safe and happy holiday this week, and enjoy some exciting football action.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
What We've Learned About College Football: Week 13
After a riveting rivalry week, the regular season is just about over, and most of what remains are final hurdles to secure BCS bowls and for two very important teams, a spot in the national title game. Yes, Oregon and Auburn each have one final test to determine their fate. With TCU already in the clubhouse at 12-0, all they can do is watch and root for Oregon State and South Carolina. College football has a way of throwing some late season curveballs at you, such as USC falling to UCLA to throw away a national title shot in 2006, and West Virginia losing a shot by falling to a mediocre Pitt team a few years ago in their season finale. As as matter of fact, 9 times in the BCS era, which is only 13 years long, a number 1 or 2 team in the BCS rankings has lost their final game of the regular season. The Ducks and Tigers better be prepared to play this Saturday, or that list could get longer. The Big East is also up for grabs with a domino effect scenario for the top three teams. It starts with UConn. If they can top South Florida, they win the league. If they lose, it falls on WVU to beat Rutgers. If West Virginia loses, Pitt can take the league with a win over Cincinnati. If all three lose, we have a 5-way tie that would still put UConn in the BCS bowl. A lot of BCS bowl teams will be decided this week with several conference title games going on. Even though last week was the biggest of the year, there is still plenty to watch this Saturday.
ACC -
The ACC is set for a title game between Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Hokies have come back from an 0-2 start to win 10 straight and be the first team to run the table in ACC games since 2001. Florida State has been very solid in the first year of the post-Bobby Bowden era. They've gotten where they are with defense, and a little help from inconsistent Maryland, NC State and Clemson teams. The ACC has 9 bowl eligible teams, and despite a down year, things are looking up at a few of their schools.
ACC title game pick - Virginia Tech over Florida State
Week 14 outlook - This game is all about Tyrod Taylor. The Hokies have been on an absolute roll, and Ryan Williams is finally healthy again running the ball. Florida State has really been strong defensively, but no ACC team aside from Georgia Tech, who FSU didn't play, has a quarterback that can run like Tyrod Taylor. That element of his game, combined with the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over with just 4 interceptions on the year puts the Hokies over the top. Christian Ponder is still not at full strength for the Seminoles, and Va. Tech is just playing too well right now. I like the Hokies by 10.
Big East -
You can argue that it is parity all you want, but what the potential five-way tie in the Big East says most about the league is that it isn't good. No team in the Big East would scare their potential opponent in a BCS bowl. West Virginia's defense is smothering, but their offense is offensive. Pitt has some great running backs and a solid defense, but they have this tendency to not show up for games. UConn has been beaten badly by Michigan and Temple, and they're in line to win a spot in a BCS game. There is some reason for optimism here, as South Florida has really come on strong of late, and Skip Holtz seems to have that program headed in the right direction, and Syracuse and Louisville have made strides as well. Until those strides turn into leaps and bounds, the Big East will continue to be ridiculed for how weak it is, even if TCU is still a powerhouse when they join.
Big East week 14 picks - UConn over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Rutgers
Week 14 outlook - Both Pitt and West Virginia know what's at stake for them if they can win and get some help, and I don't expect either team to trip up. Cincy's seive like defense should make it easy for Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to rip them to shreds. Cincy can score, but that defense is just miserable. Rutgers has been fairly consistent this year, but they have been consistently bad. Greg Schiano seems to have no idea which quarterback gives his team the best chance to win. I think it's time to just give the ball to the freshman Chas Dodd and let him get some more experience. The kid has a big arm and he needs to be turned lose. Rutgers won't be a complete pushover, but West Virginia has been pretty good with their formula of getting a lead and sitting on it. I expect a low scoring game with WVU winning by a touchdown or 2. UConn is certainly the team with the best chance of losing out of the top 3 in the Big East. South Florida has been playing great football the past few weeks, including taking apart Miami a week ago. The Bulls are a really strong team, but Jordan Todman is a machine. If UConn continues to feed him the ball and Zach Frazer continues to make smart throws, this UConn team likely will get to their first ever BCS bowl game, which would be a great story even in this miserable year for the Big East. After starting 3-4, the Huskies have rolled up 4 straight wins, and I like them to notch a fifth this weekend. It should be a great game though, with the Bulls and B.J. Daniels coming up just short.
Big 12 -
What a shootout in the Bedlam game last Saturday night. Oklahoma survived a hard push from the Cowboys to get back in the game, and now the Sooners are slated to take on Nebraska for the Big 12 title. Despite not having an elite team, it was still a solid season for the Big 12 with Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all playing well above expectations. With that said, it comes down to one game for that BCS spot, and Nebraska-Oklahoma is the matchup everyone wanted in this game.
Big 12 title game pick - Oklahoma over Nebraska
Week 14 outlook - The Sooners just have too dynamic an offense for Nebraska to keep up. Even if the 'Huskers are able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and contain Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles in the passing game, it's still unclear if Taylor Martinez will play for Nebraska. Cody Green did a tremendous job against Colorado, but that wasn't the same caliber football team that the 'Huskers will see Saturday. I expect a close game, but I expect Oklahomka to win.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten is all wrapped up. Unless something unexplainable happens in the polls to move Ohio State or Michigan State past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings, the Badgers will be in the Rose Bowl, likely against TCU. Ohio State seems headed for a solid BCS bid as well, with MSU having to settle for the Capital One Bowl. It was a fun race, but a three-way tie seems unresolved to me. At least Bret Bielema can gloat about how running up the score helped his team get the Big Ten crown.
Big Ten week 14 pick - Illinois over Fresno State
Week 14 outlook - This pick is already wrong as Fresno won on Friday night. The Fighting Illini will still likely go bowling at 6-6, but it's a disappointing way to end the regular season for a team that showed real flashes of brilliance this season.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 race is already decided, but there is still a lot on the line this weekend. The Pac-10 decided that they should do their rivalry week a week after everyone else. Stanford and Cal are already done for the year, with Stanford a good bet for a BCS bowl, but everyone else still has their most hated rival yet. Oregon's Civil War against Oregon State is now the most important game on their schedule, because a win in that game would put them in the national title game. USC renews their rivalry with UCLA, and Washington heads into the Apple Cup game with Washington State with bowl eligibility at stake. The other game between Arizona and Arizona State was already played on Thursday, with the Sun Devils winning with a blocked extra point in double overtime. That's the kind of game that makes rivalries so fun, especially when the Sun Devils were heavy underdogs. It's a positive finish for a team that won't go bowling despite a 6-6 record, since they picked up two wins against the lowly FCS.
Pac-10 week 14 picks - USC over UCLA, Arizona over Arizona State, Washington over Washington State, Oregon over Oregon State
Week 14 outlook - I won't lie, I would have picked Arizona to beat Arizona State, which they did not do. USC should be able to beat UCLA, and possibly get Rick Neuheisel ousted as coach, but it looks like it will be Mitch Mustain under center again for the Trojans. Mustain struggled in the loss to Notre Dame a week ago, but UCLA has been in an absolute tailspin the past 6 weeks with just one win. Without much left to play for, it will be interesting to see if the Bruins get up for this game. Washington and Jake Locker head to Pullman to take on the WSU Cougars this week, and they are desperate for a win. They kept Cal from getting bowl eligible last week, and now can get themselves there with a win over the miserable Cougars. Jake Locker would love to get another game to showcase his skills to the pro scouts, and I think Washington wins this game easily. The Civil War should be intense this year. Oregon knows what's at stake, and head coach Chip Kelly seems to keep his guys focused every week. His constant defensive subs to keep his guys fresh seems like coaching genius, and the blur offense is simply not stoppable. The Ducks will shut down Jaquizz Rodgers, and it will be on Ryan Katz to move the ball with his arm, and I don't think he can move it enough to keep up with the Ducks. That Duck mascot better be ready to do a lot of pushups Saturday in Corvallis, because I don't think the Ducks are going to leave any doubt who the best team in the Pac-10 is.
SEC -
The Cameron Newton show that got put on in Tuscaloosa was jaw-dropping this past Saturday. Anyone watching that game felt like Alabama was just going to roll over the Tigers. These Tigers don't get rolled over. They have been behind in just about every game they have played, and not always small deficits. This game was different. The other big comebacks against Clemson, South Carolina, and Georgia were all at home. This game was in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide doesn't lose. They lost to Auburn. Cameron Newton continued to add to his legend with yet another impressive comeback, and he did it with his arm. Alabama shut down Newton's running game, but he responded with one of his best passing games of the season. The biggest reason for the demise of the Tide in this one was a failure to convert on scoring opportunities. Mark Ingram fumbled on what looked like a touchdown run, and Trent Richardson dropped a sure touchdown pass as the Tide scored only 6 points after the first quarter. Now it will take just one more win for Auburn to sew up a spot in the national title game.
SEC title game pick - Auburn over South Carolina
Week 14 outlook - This should be a very good game. Auburn will likely fall behind early as they usually do, but they will make offensive adjustments to right the ship. South Carolina is solid against the run, and they will make it tough for Newton and Onterio McCalebb to run early, much like Alabama did. The Gamecocks tend to struggle against the pass, and once Auburn sees that it will be tough sledding in the ground game, they will start to pick apart the South Carolina secondary. It will be critical for South Carolina to commit to the running game on offense, as Marcus Lattimore has been the biggest key to the team's success. The Gamecocks have been very focused the last couple of weeks with comfortable victories over Florida and Clemson, and they will need that focus against Auburn. I think Cam Newton has one more comeback left in him, and I think Auburn wins another one close, late.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State's run to a BCS game, and possible natinonal title shot came to a screeching halt last week as Nevada derailed Boise's season in overtime. Kyle Brotzman, Boise's kicker, missed two chip shot field goals, one for the win at the end of regulation and the other for a lead in overtime. It will be a memorable game for years, with great plays made on both sides, including a hail mary to Titus Young to set up the first missed field goal. Nevada overcame a 24-7 deficit with a dominant second half, and Boise's dream season came crumbling down. TCU wrapped up their 12-0 regular season and secured at least a spot in the Rose Bowl. The MAC title game was decided in shocking fashion as Northern Illinois was defeated in the final minute by Miami OH. The Huskies dominated MAC play and I would have picked them to win by 20 points, but the defense of the Redhawks shut down that vaunted Husky rushing attack. Conference USA will be decided in a title game between Central Florida and SMU after each team won last week. The only other league was decided last week by FIU defeating Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt.
Other week 14 picks - Central Florida over SMU, Troy over Florida Atlantic, Boise State over Utah State, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, Idaho over San Jose State, Hawaii over UNLV, Florida International over Middle Tennessee State
Week 14 outlook - I feel sorry for Utah State for drawing Boise the week after that letdown against Nevada. The Broncos will take their frustrations out on the Aggies and win by at least 30. Nevada should follow up their biggest win ever with an easy W over Louisiana Tech. Hawaii should be able to take down UNLV to create a three-way tie for the WAC title. SMU showed some struggles on defense last week against ECU, and Central Florida is a better team than the Pirates. I expect the Knights to win by two scores.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - They remain the unquestioned strongest conference.
2. Big Ten - Three Big Ten teams deserve to play in BCS bowls.
3. Pac-10 - Not as much depth as the Big 12, but 2 teams that are better than any in the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - A lot of solid teams, but no one jumps out as a powerhouse.
5. ACC - It took a while for the good teams to show up, but FSU and Virginia Tech should be a fun conference title game.
6. WAC - Boise's loss actually makes the league look better since Nevada only has one loss and Hawaii remains solid as well.
7. Mountain West - No one really wows you after TCU
8. Big East - As mediocre as the league is, it has started to make a strong comeback with runs by USF and UConn.
9. C-USA - Slightly above the MAC with the Huskies' slip up.
10. MAC - Miami OH as a league champ impresses no one.
11. Sun Belt - All you need to know: FIU must win their finale for the league champion to be above .500 overall.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 12-0 (prev. 1)
2. Auburn - 12-0 (4)
3. Oregon - 11-0 (2)
4. Wisconsin - 11-1 (5)
5. Ohio State - 11-1 (6)
6. Stanford - 11-1 (7)
7. Michigan State - 11-1 (9)
8. Arkansas - 10-2 (12)
9. Boise State - 10-1 (3)
10. Oklahoma - 10-2 (15)
11. Virginia Tech - 10-2 (13)
12. LSU - 10-2 (8)
13. Nebraska - 10-2 (14)
14. South Carolina - 9-3 (16)
15. Alabama - 9-3 (11)
16. Oklahoma State - 10-2 (10)
17. Nevada - 11-1 (19)
18. Texas A&M - 9-3 (17)
19. Missouri - 10-2 (18)
20. Florida State - 9-3 (20)
21. Northern Illinois - 10-2 (21) *before title game loss
22. Mississippi State - 8-4 (25)
23. West Virginia - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Maryland - 8-4 (UNR)
25. Utah - 10-2 (UNR)
Dropped from rankings: Iowa (22), North Carolina State (23), Arizona (24)
ACC -
The ACC is set for a title game between Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Hokies have come back from an 0-2 start to win 10 straight and be the first team to run the table in ACC games since 2001. Florida State has been very solid in the first year of the post-Bobby Bowden era. They've gotten where they are with defense, and a little help from inconsistent Maryland, NC State and Clemson teams. The ACC has 9 bowl eligible teams, and despite a down year, things are looking up at a few of their schools.
ACC title game pick - Virginia Tech over Florida State
Week 14 outlook - This game is all about Tyrod Taylor. The Hokies have been on an absolute roll, and Ryan Williams is finally healthy again running the ball. Florida State has really been strong defensively, but no ACC team aside from Georgia Tech, who FSU didn't play, has a quarterback that can run like Tyrod Taylor. That element of his game, combined with the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over with just 4 interceptions on the year puts the Hokies over the top. Christian Ponder is still not at full strength for the Seminoles, and Va. Tech is just playing too well right now. I like the Hokies by 10.
Big East -
You can argue that it is parity all you want, but what the potential five-way tie in the Big East says most about the league is that it isn't good. No team in the Big East would scare their potential opponent in a BCS bowl. West Virginia's defense is smothering, but their offense is offensive. Pitt has some great running backs and a solid defense, but they have this tendency to not show up for games. UConn has been beaten badly by Michigan and Temple, and they're in line to win a spot in a BCS game. There is some reason for optimism here, as South Florida has really come on strong of late, and Skip Holtz seems to have that program headed in the right direction, and Syracuse and Louisville have made strides as well. Until those strides turn into leaps and bounds, the Big East will continue to be ridiculed for how weak it is, even if TCU is still a powerhouse when they join.
Big East week 14 picks - UConn over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Rutgers
Week 14 outlook - Both Pitt and West Virginia know what's at stake for them if they can win and get some help, and I don't expect either team to trip up. Cincy's seive like defense should make it easy for Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to rip them to shreds. Cincy can score, but that defense is just miserable. Rutgers has been fairly consistent this year, but they have been consistently bad. Greg Schiano seems to have no idea which quarterback gives his team the best chance to win. I think it's time to just give the ball to the freshman Chas Dodd and let him get some more experience. The kid has a big arm and he needs to be turned lose. Rutgers won't be a complete pushover, but West Virginia has been pretty good with their formula of getting a lead and sitting on it. I expect a low scoring game with WVU winning by a touchdown or 2. UConn is certainly the team with the best chance of losing out of the top 3 in the Big East. South Florida has been playing great football the past few weeks, including taking apart Miami a week ago. The Bulls are a really strong team, but Jordan Todman is a machine. If UConn continues to feed him the ball and Zach Frazer continues to make smart throws, this UConn team likely will get to their first ever BCS bowl game, which would be a great story even in this miserable year for the Big East. After starting 3-4, the Huskies have rolled up 4 straight wins, and I like them to notch a fifth this weekend. It should be a great game though, with the Bulls and B.J. Daniels coming up just short.
Big 12 -
What a shootout in the Bedlam game last Saturday night. Oklahoma survived a hard push from the Cowboys to get back in the game, and now the Sooners are slated to take on Nebraska for the Big 12 title. Despite not having an elite team, it was still a solid season for the Big 12 with Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all playing well above expectations. With that said, it comes down to one game for that BCS spot, and Nebraska-Oklahoma is the matchup everyone wanted in this game.
Big 12 title game pick - Oklahoma over Nebraska
Week 14 outlook - The Sooners just have too dynamic an offense for Nebraska to keep up. Even if the 'Huskers are able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and contain Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles in the passing game, it's still unclear if Taylor Martinez will play for Nebraska. Cody Green did a tremendous job against Colorado, but that wasn't the same caliber football team that the 'Huskers will see Saturday. I expect a close game, but I expect Oklahomka to win.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten is all wrapped up. Unless something unexplainable happens in the polls to move Ohio State or Michigan State past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings, the Badgers will be in the Rose Bowl, likely against TCU. Ohio State seems headed for a solid BCS bid as well, with MSU having to settle for the Capital One Bowl. It was a fun race, but a three-way tie seems unresolved to me. At least Bret Bielema can gloat about how running up the score helped his team get the Big Ten crown.
Big Ten week 14 pick - Illinois over Fresno State
Week 14 outlook - This pick is already wrong as Fresno won on Friday night. The Fighting Illini will still likely go bowling at 6-6, but it's a disappointing way to end the regular season for a team that showed real flashes of brilliance this season.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 race is already decided, but there is still a lot on the line this weekend. The Pac-10 decided that they should do their rivalry week a week after everyone else. Stanford and Cal are already done for the year, with Stanford a good bet for a BCS bowl, but everyone else still has their most hated rival yet. Oregon's Civil War against Oregon State is now the most important game on their schedule, because a win in that game would put them in the national title game. USC renews their rivalry with UCLA, and Washington heads into the Apple Cup game with Washington State with bowl eligibility at stake. The other game between Arizona and Arizona State was already played on Thursday, with the Sun Devils winning with a blocked extra point in double overtime. That's the kind of game that makes rivalries so fun, especially when the Sun Devils were heavy underdogs. It's a positive finish for a team that won't go bowling despite a 6-6 record, since they picked up two wins against the lowly FCS.
Pac-10 week 14 picks - USC over UCLA, Arizona over Arizona State, Washington over Washington State, Oregon over Oregon State
Week 14 outlook - I won't lie, I would have picked Arizona to beat Arizona State, which they did not do. USC should be able to beat UCLA, and possibly get Rick Neuheisel ousted as coach, but it looks like it will be Mitch Mustain under center again for the Trojans. Mustain struggled in the loss to Notre Dame a week ago, but UCLA has been in an absolute tailspin the past 6 weeks with just one win. Without much left to play for, it will be interesting to see if the Bruins get up for this game. Washington and Jake Locker head to Pullman to take on the WSU Cougars this week, and they are desperate for a win. They kept Cal from getting bowl eligible last week, and now can get themselves there with a win over the miserable Cougars. Jake Locker would love to get another game to showcase his skills to the pro scouts, and I think Washington wins this game easily. The Civil War should be intense this year. Oregon knows what's at stake, and head coach Chip Kelly seems to keep his guys focused every week. His constant defensive subs to keep his guys fresh seems like coaching genius, and the blur offense is simply not stoppable. The Ducks will shut down Jaquizz Rodgers, and it will be on Ryan Katz to move the ball with his arm, and I don't think he can move it enough to keep up with the Ducks. That Duck mascot better be ready to do a lot of pushups Saturday in Corvallis, because I don't think the Ducks are going to leave any doubt who the best team in the Pac-10 is.
SEC -
The Cameron Newton show that got put on in Tuscaloosa was jaw-dropping this past Saturday. Anyone watching that game felt like Alabama was just going to roll over the Tigers. These Tigers don't get rolled over. They have been behind in just about every game they have played, and not always small deficits. This game was different. The other big comebacks against Clemson, South Carolina, and Georgia were all at home. This game was in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide doesn't lose. They lost to Auburn. Cameron Newton continued to add to his legend with yet another impressive comeback, and he did it with his arm. Alabama shut down Newton's running game, but he responded with one of his best passing games of the season. The biggest reason for the demise of the Tide in this one was a failure to convert on scoring opportunities. Mark Ingram fumbled on what looked like a touchdown run, and Trent Richardson dropped a sure touchdown pass as the Tide scored only 6 points after the first quarter. Now it will take just one more win for Auburn to sew up a spot in the national title game.
SEC title game pick - Auburn over South Carolina
Week 14 outlook - This should be a very good game. Auburn will likely fall behind early as they usually do, but they will make offensive adjustments to right the ship. South Carolina is solid against the run, and they will make it tough for Newton and Onterio McCalebb to run early, much like Alabama did. The Gamecocks tend to struggle against the pass, and once Auburn sees that it will be tough sledding in the ground game, they will start to pick apart the South Carolina secondary. It will be critical for South Carolina to commit to the running game on offense, as Marcus Lattimore has been the biggest key to the team's success. The Gamecocks have been very focused the last couple of weeks with comfortable victories over Florida and Clemson, and they will need that focus against Auburn. I think Cam Newton has one more comeback left in him, and I think Auburn wins another one close, late.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State's run to a BCS game, and possible natinonal title shot came to a screeching halt last week as Nevada derailed Boise's season in overtime. Kyle Brotzman, Boise's kicker, missed two chip shot field goals, one for the win at the end of regulation and the other for a lead in overtime. It will be a memorable game for years, with great plays made on both sides, including a hail mary to Titus Young to set up the first missed field goal. Nevada overcame a 24-7 deficit with a dominant second half, and Boise's dream season came crumbling down. TCU wrapped up their 12-0 regular season and secured at least a spot in the Rose Bowl. The MAC title game was decided in shocking fashion as Northern Illinois was defeated in the final minute by Miami OH. The Huskies dominated MAC play and I would have picked them to win by 20 points, but the defense of the Redhawks shut down that vaunted Husky rushing attack. Conference USA will be decided in a title game between Central Florida and SMU after each team won last week. The only other league was decided last week by FIU defeating Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt.
Other week 14 picks - Central Florida over SMU, Troy over Florida Atlantic, Boise State over Utah State, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, Idaho over San Jose State, Hawaii over UNLV, Florida International over Middle Tennessee State
Week 14 outlook - I feel sorry for Utah State for drawing Boise the week after that letdown against Nevada. The Broncos will take their frustrations out on the Aggies and win by at least 30. Nevada should follow up their biggest win ever with an easy W over Louisiana Tech. Hawaii should be able to take down UNLV to create a three-way tie for the WAC title. SMU showed some struggles on defense last week against ECU, and Central Florida is a better team than the Pirates. I expect the Knights to win by two scores.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - They remain the unquestioned strongest conference.
2. Big Ten - Three Big Ten teams deserve to play in BCS bowls.
3. Pac-10 - Not as much depth as the Big 12, but 2 teams that are better than any in the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - A lot of solid teams, but no one jumps out as a powerhouse.
5. ACC - It took a while for the good teams to show up, but FSU and Virginia Tech should be a fun conference title game.
6. WAC - Boise's loss actually makes the league look better since Nevada only has one loss and Hawaii remains solid as well.
7. Mountain West - No one really wows you after TCU
8. Big East - As mediocre as the league is, it has started to make a strong comeback with runs by USF and UConn.
9. C-USA - Slightly above the MAC with the Huskies' slip up.
10. MAC - Miami OH as a league champ impresses no one.
11. Sun Belt - All you need to know: FIU must win their finale for the league champion to be above .500 overall.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 12-0 (prev. 1)
2. Auburn - 12-0 (4)
3. Oregon - 11-0 (2)
4. Wisconsin - 11-1 (5)
5. Ohio State - 11-1 (6)
6. Stanford - 11-1 (7)
7. Michigan State - 11-1 (9)
8. Arkansas - 10-2 (12)
9. Boise State - 10-1 (3)
10. Oklahoma - 10-2 (15)
11. Virginia Tech - 10-2 (13)
12. LSU - 10-2 (8)
13. Nebraska - 10-2 (14)
14. South Carolina - 9-3 (16)
15. Alabama - 9-3 (11)
16. Oklahoma State - 10-2 (10)
17. Nevada - 11-1 (19)
18. Texas A&M - 9-3 (17)
19. Missouri - 10-2 (18)
20. Florida State - 9-3 (20)
21. Northern Illinois - 10-2 (21) *before title game loss
22. Mississippi State - 8-4 (25)
23. West Virginia - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Maryland - 8-4 (UNR)
25. Utah - 10-2 (UNR)
Dropped from rankings: Iowa (22), North Carolina State (23), Arizona (24)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)