College bowl season is starting to heat up as we approach the BCS games and all of the traditional New Year's Day games that take place each year. As usual, bowl season has been extremely unpredictable so far. It's impossible to know how some teams will respond to having a month off. There is so much that can happen in that time frame. Teams can add new formations and wrinkles to their offense and defense, it can give players a chance to get healthy for their games, and it can give players a chance to stew over a poor finish or get complacent after a strong one. It all adds up to a lot of head-scratching final results during bowl season. Washington held Nebraska to 7 points in their Holiday Bowl win after allowing the 'Huskers to roll up 56 in the regular season meeting between the schools in Seattle. West Virginia clearly was rusty after the month off in their bowl game as they turned the ball over 5 times in the second half alone. Iowa came out more prepared to play after a month off than Missouri, despite ending the regular season on a 3-game skid and having their top running back and wideout out for the game. Anything is possible in these games, and here is my futile effort to predict what will happen in the games on New Year's Day:
TicketCity Bowl (1/1 12 p.m.)
Northwestern 27, Texas Tech 20 - The Wildcats have really struggled as a team since losing quarterback Dan Persa to a season ending injury in an upset over Iowa. People expected the offense to struggle since Persa was such a big part of it, but few realized that the defense would also fall apart after the injury. The next game after the injury against Illinois, the Wildcats allowed over 500 rushing yards to the Illini. After a month off, I think the Wildcats will get it straightened out. Evan Watkins has had a month of practice as the first-string quarterback, and the defense has had a lot of time to get ready for the Texas Tech offense they will see in this game. NU's defense struggles against the run, but Texas Tech is a pass-first offense with Taylor Potts at quarterback. The Red Raiders have been far from impressive at times this year, and I think Pat Fitzgerald is too good a coach to let this team continue to not show up just because Persa is out. I think Northwestern plays a very good game and is able to take down Texas Tech in a minor upset.
Confidence Points - 16 points
Outback Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Florida 31, Penn State 20 - The coaching matchup will be the story in this game. Urban Meyer is in his final game as head coach of the Gators, but he has had a very successful run in his time in Gainesville. His opponent in the matchup is Joe Paterno, who had more wins in the FBS that any other coach in history, and unlike Meyer, will be back for another year next season. As interesting a matchup that is, it tells nothing about what will happen on the field. The Gators have really struggled offensively at times this season, having issues with turnovers, injuries to the running backs, and a lack of continuity at the quarterback position. While it's tough to know if the Gators will be any better with the quarterback situation or the turnovers, the injuries are finally getting better. The Gators have a ton of speed in that backfield with Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps, and the Nittany Lions won't be ready for it. Penn State has some offensive talent in running back Evan Royster, and a quarterback who really makes smart decisions in Matt McGloin, but they lack the athleticism of the Gators. I expect Florida to win this game more easily than people expect.
Confidence Points - 20 points
Capital One Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Alabama 27, Michigan State 23 - This game has all of the makings of one of those bowl games that ends up in an upset because one team wants to be there more than the other. The question is, which team wants to be there more? Both have different reasons to be dissappointed by their postseason destination. Alabama went into the season as the clear favorite to win the national title, but had some disappointing losses to South Carolina and LSU, and a collapse against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. They didn't plan on ending up in the Capital One Bowl, and they might not have a ton of motivation to win it. Everyone remembers the drubbing they took in the Sugar Bowl at the hands of Utah a couple years ago when they lost a shot at the national title game in the SEC championship against Florida. Michigan State is disappointed for a completely different reason with their bowl destination. The Spartans went 11-1 and defeated the team that is representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl during the regular season. The Spartans were the low man in a three-way tie atop the conference, and missed out on a BCS bowl game because of it. The Spartans can prove they belonged in a BCS game with a win, while Alabama can make up for a disappointing season with a big win over a highly ranked MSU team. With all of that said, I think Alabama has more talent than Michigan State. The Spartans will not get blown out in this game, but the running back duo of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson along with the fantastic wide receiver Julio Jones. Michigan State has plenty of weapons of their own, but the difference could be at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has had some issues at times this year, particularly in the Iowa game that MSU lost, while McElroy has been extremely efficient. I think this game is decided by a mistake by Cousins, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Spartans pull off the win.
Confidence Points - 9 points
Progressive Gator Bowl (1/1 1:30 p.m.)
Mississippi State 35, Michigan 28 - The final score in this game will be very difficult to predict. Michigan has a very potent offense that can put up 40 points on almost any defense, but Mississippi State has had a lot of time to prepare for it. The Wolverines also give up a ton of points, but MSU won't have to score much if they are able to slow down U of M. This should be a fun game to watch, but I think the biggest factor in this game will be Michigan's lack of a kicking game. Denard Robinson has been fantastic in most games this year, and he has a ton of weapons to get the football to, but if they get held to 4th down, Rich Rod is always going to be hesitant to try a field goal. Kicker Seth Brookhuisen has been very inconsistent, and it normally feels like a higher percentage play to trust Denard Robinson and the offense to go for it on 4th than to kick. I think the Bulldogs will stop a couple of those 4th down attempts, and those lost 3 point opportunities will contribute to the loss. Chris Relf and Vick Ballard can both run for Mississippi State, and the Wolverines had the 2nd worst run defense in the Big Ten. Michigan's offense will keep them competitive, but the lack of a defense will likely get them another loss, and cost head coach Rich Rodriguez his job.
Confidence Points - 15 points
Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (1/1 4:30 p.m.)
TCU 30, Wisconsin 27 - This game is gonna be a brawl. Both teams go into this with something to prove. Wisconsin needs to show that they really were the best team in the Big Ten this year. TCU needs to show that they should have gotten more consideration for the title game. The non-AQ schools always have something to prove in a BCS game, and TCU will certainly fight to win this one. Wisconsin has been running over people with their bruising ground attack, and they have the size up front to continue to do that against an undersized TCU defensive front. John Clay returns for this game, and that might actually not be a good thing for the Badgers. Clay is normally treated as the unquestioned number one back when healthy, but James White and Montee Ball might be better runners. If Wisconsin leans on Clay, TCU might be able to keep that running game well contained. They will still have to contend with tight end Lance Kendricks in the passing game however. If Wisconsin mixes up the tailbacks and uses all 3 guys, it will be very difficult for the Horned Frogs to shut them all down. If they can't slow the Badgers' offense, they will have to put up points when they have the ball. Andy Dalton is a great triggerman for the TCU offense, and the guys around him are good as well. Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce, and Bart Johnson are very good receivers for the spread offense they run, and Ed Wesley and Matt Tucker are very strong on the ground. The key for the Horned Frogs will be to keep defensive end J.J. Watt away from Dalton, and TCU should be able to put up just enough points to hold off a very good Badger team and finish the season undefeated.
Confidence Points - 3 points
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (1/1 8:30 p.m.)
Oklahoma 34, UConn 16 - This game is a bit of a mismatch for being a BCS game. The Huskies really don't belong in a top-notch bowl game, but as the Big East champs, they get the Fiesta Bowl berth. They don't have much of a dynamic offense, but Jordan Todman has been a very effective rusher during the late season run of victories for UConn. Zach Frazer has been ok at quarterback for the Huskies, but he is far from elite at the position. The Huskies have had a season to be proud of so far, but there will be no shame in losing in a bowl game they don't belong in in the first place. Oklahoma is loaded on offense with Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles all among the best in the Big 12 at their positions. Oklahoma has a pretty impressive defense as well, and the Sooners should completely outmatch the Huskies. This game could get ugly, but my score prediction gives the Huskies a chance to keep the game competitive. I expect UConn to play with a lot of emotion to try and prove to people they belong in a BCS game, but the talent of the Sooners will just be too much.
Confidence Points - 32 points
That's all of the New Year's Day matchups, and I'll break down the rest of the games in the next couple of days. Everyone have a safe and happy New Year, and enjoy some good football action.
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