College Bowl Picks: New Year's Day Games

College bowl season is starting to heat up as we approach the BCS games and all of the traditional New Year's Day games that take place each year. As usual, bowl season has been extremely unpredictable so far. It's impossible to know how some teams will respond to having a month off. There is so much that can happen in that time frame. Teams can add new formations and wrinkles to their offense and defense, it can give players a chance to get healthy for their games, and it can give players a chance to stew over a poor finish or get complacent after a strong one. It all adds up to a lot of head-scratching final results during bowl season. Washington held Nebraska to 7 points in their Holiday Bowl win after allowing the 'Huskers to roll up 56 in the regular season meeting between the schools in Seattle. West Virginia clearly was rusty after the month off in their bowl game as they turned the ball over 5 times in the second half alone. Iowa came out more prepared to play after a month off than Missouri, despite ending the regular season on a 3-game skid and having their top running back and wideout out for the game. Anything is possible in these games, and here is my futile effort to predict what will happen in the games on New Year's Day:

TicketCity Bowl (1/1 12 p.m.)
Northwestern 27, Texas Tech 20 - The Wildcats have really struggled as a team since losing quarterback Dan Persa to a season ending injury in an upset over Iowa. People expected the offense to struggle since Persa was such a big part of it, but few realized that the defense would also fall apart after the injury. The next game after the injury against Illinois, the Wildcats allowed over 500 rushing yards to the Illini. After a month off, I think the Wildcats will get it straightened out. Evan Watkins has had a month of practice as the first-string quarterback, and the defense has had a lot of time to get ready for the Texas Tech offense they will see in this game. NU's defense struggles against the run, but Texas Tech is a pass-first offense with Taylor Potts at quarterback. The Red Raiders have been far from impressive at times this year, and I think Pat Fitzgerald is too good a coach to let this team continue to not show up just because Persa is out. I think Northwestern plays a very good game and is able to take down Texas Tech in a minor upset.
Confidence Points - 16 points

Outback Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Florida 31, Penn State 20 - The coaching matchup will be the story in this game. Urban Meyer is in his final game as head coach of the Gators, but he has had a very successful run in his time in Gainesville. His opponent in the matchup is Joe Paterno, who had more wins in the FBS that any other coach in history, and unlike Meyer, will be back for another year next season. As interesting a matchup that is, it tells nothing about what will happen on the field. The Gators have really struggled offensively at times this season, having issues with turnovers, injuries to the running backs, and a lack of continuity at the quarterback position. While it's tough to know if the Gators will be any better with the quarterback situation or the turnovers, the injuries are finally getting better. The Gators have a ton of speed in that backfield with Chris Rainey and Jeffrey Demps, and the Nittany Lions won't be ready for it. Penn State has some offensive talent in running back Evan Royster, and a quarterback who really makes smart decisions in Matt McGloin, but they lack the athleticism of the Gators. I expect Florida to win this game more easily than people expect.
Confidence Points - 20 points

Capital One Bowl (1/1 1 p.m.)
Alabama 27, Michigan State 23 - This game has all of the makings of one of those bowl games that ends up in an upset because one team wants to be there more than the other. The question is, which team wants to be there more? Both have different reasons to be dissappointed by their postseason destination. Alabama went into the season as the clear favorite to win the national title, but had some disappointing losses to South Carolina and LSU, and a collapse against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. They didn't plan on ending up in the Capital One Bowl, and they might not have a ton of motivation to win it. Everyone remembers the drubbing they took in the Sugar Bowl at the hands of Utah a couple years ago when they lost a shot at the national title game in the SEC championship against Florida. Michigan State is disappointed for a completely different reason with their bowl destination. The Spartans went 11-1 and defeated the team that is representing the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl during the regular season. The Spartans were the low man in a three-way tie atop the conference, and missed out on a BCS bowl game because of it. The Spartans can prove they belonged in a BCS game with a win, while Alabama can make up for a disappointing season with a big win over a highly ranked MSU team. With all of that said, I think Alabama has more talent than Michigan State. The Spartans will not get blown out in this game, but the running back duo of Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson along with the fantastic wide receiver Julio Jones. Michigan State has plenty of weapons of their own, but the difference could be at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has had some issues at times this year, particularly in the Iowa game that MSU lost, while McElroy has been extremely efficient. I think this game is decided by a mistake by Cousins, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Spartans pull off the win.
Confidence Points - 9 points

Progressive Gator Bowl (1/1 1:30 p.m.)
Mississippi State 35, Michigan 28 - The final score in this game will be very difficult to predict. Michigan has a very potent offense that can put up 40 points on almost any defense, but Mississippi State has had a lot of time to prepare for it. The Wolverines also give up a ton of points, but MSU won't have to score much if they are able to slow down U of M. This should be a fun game to watch, but I think the biggest factor in this game will be Michigan's lack of a kicking game. Denard Robinson has been fantastic in most games this year, and he has a ton of weapons to get the football to, but if they get held to 4th down, Rich Rod is always going to be hesitant to try a field goal. Kicker Seth Brookhuisen has been very inconsistent, and it normally feels like a higher percentage play to trust Denard Robinson and the offense to go for it on 4th than to kick. I think the Bulldogs will stop a couple of those 4th down attempts, and those lost 3 point opportunities will contribute to the loss. Chris Relf and Vick Ballard can both run for Mississippi State, and the Wolverines had the 2nd worst run defense in the Big Ten. Michigan's offense will keep them competitive, but the lack of a defense will likely get them another loss, and cost head coach Rich Rodriguez his job.
Confidence Points - 15 points

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (1/1 4:30 p.m.)
TCU 30, Wisconsin 27 - This game is gonna be a brawl. Both teams go into this with something to prove. Wisconsin needs to show that they really were the best team in the Big Ten this year. TCU needs to show that they should have gotten more consideration for the title game. The non-AQ schools always have something to prove in a BCS game, and TCU will certainly fight to win this one. Wisconsin has been running over people with their bruising ground attack, and they have the size up front to continue to do that against an undersized TCU defensive front. John Clay returns for this game, and that might actually not be a good thing for the Badgers. Clay is normally treated as the unquestioned number one back when healthy, but James White and Montee Ball might be better runners. If Wisconsin leans on Clay, TCU might be able to keep that running game well contained. They will still have to contend with tight end Lance Kendricks in the passing game however. If Wisconsin mixes up the tailbacks and uses all 3 guys, it will be very difficult for the Horned Frogs to shut them all down. If they can't slow the Badgers' offense, they will have to put up points when they have the ball. Andy Dalton is a great triggerman for the TCU offense, and the guys around him are good as well. Jeremy Kerley, Josh Boyce, and Bart Johnson are very good receivers for the spread offense they run, and Ed Wesley and Matt Tucker are very strong on the ground. The key for the Horned Frogs will be to keep defensive end J.J. Watt away from Dalton, and TCU should be able to put up just enough points to hold off a very good Badger team and finish the season undefeated.
Confidence Points - 3 points

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (1/1 8:30 p.m.)
Oklahoma 34, UConn 16 - This game is a bit of a mismatch for being a BCS game. The Huskies really don't belong in a top-notch bowl game, but as the Big East champs, they get the Fiesta Bowl berth. They don't have much of a dynamic offense, but Jordan Todman has been a very effective rusher during the late season run of victories for UConn. Zach Frazer has been ok at quarterback for the Huskies, but he is far from elite at the position. The Huskies have had a season to be proud of so far, but there will be no shame in losing in a bowl game they don't belong in in the first place. Oklahoma is loaded on offense with Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles all among the best in the Big 12 at their positions. Oklahoma has a pretty impressive defense as well, and the Sooners should completely outmatch the Huskies. This game could get ugly, but my score prediction gives the Huskies a chance to keep the game competitive. I expect UConn to play with a lot of emotion to try and prove to people they belong in a BCS game, but the talent of the Sooners will just be too much.
Confidence Points - 32 points

That's all of the New Year's Day matchups, and I'll break down the rest of the games in the next couple of days. Everyone have a safe and happy New Year, and enjoy some good football action.

College Bowl Picks - Week 2

Well, it was an interesting first week of bowl action in college football. I feel like I did pretty well in my picks for a lot of the games, but there were a couple I was way off on. It was embarrasing to watch a Frank Solich team be so miserable on defense as the Ohio Bobcats were destroyed by Troy. The Bobcats didn't cover anyone in the passing game, and really struggled to make open field tackles. Speaking of poor defensive performances, I think Tulsa just scored on Hawaii again. The Golden Hurricane rolled up 62 points on Hawaii in a game that went about the opposite of what I had expected. It was Tulsa that jumped out to a big early lead and Hawaii struggling to play catch-up in a blowout loss in their home state. At least BYU, FIU, and Boise State made me look like I know a little bit about what I say in this blog, not to mention Northern Illinois' strong bowl showing. Hopefully I can improve upon my 5-4 record from the first 9 games this week. Same as last week, I will include a final score guess and confidence point total with each prediction with the confidence points ranging from 1 to 35. And the games for this week:

Champs Sports Bowl (12/28 6:30 p.m.)
West Virginia 26, North Carolina State 20 - This one should be a very competitive game. West Virginia has been a fantastic defensive team while NC State has been very solid on offense with Russell Wilson putting up prolific passing numbers. Wilson is a senior and will want to end his career with a win, but that Mountaineer defense will likely force him into some mistakes. Despite putting up 8 300-yard games this season, Wilson also threw 14 picks on the year, and West Virginia will put pressure on him to add to that number. The Mountaineers were 3rd in the FBS in sacks with 40, and they will do everything they can to get into that NC State backfield and disrupt that passing attack. Geno Smith isn't quite the passer that Wilson is, but he has limited the turnovers for WVU with just 6 INTs on the season. The offense for West Virginia has been far from explosive, but if they execute the way they're supposed to and the defense forces a couple errors by the Wolfpack offense, WVU should be able to score enough points to come out with a win.
Confidence Points - 21 points

Insight Bowl (12/28 10 p.m.)
Iowa 30, Missouri 27 - This one is a total gut call. There are a lot of factors working against the Hawkeyes in this game. Their top running back (Adam Robinson) and top wide receiver (Darell Johnson-Koulianos) are both out for this game with suspensions. Missouri won their final three games to slip back into the top 15 in the polls while Iowa finished on a 3 game skid that included an awful loss to Minnesota to knock them way out of the top 25, so momentum clearly favors the Tigers. Despite those factors, I think Iowa pulls off the upset. Ricky Stanzi has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country this year with just 4 interceptions against 25 touchdowns. It also helps that Missouri won't have a ton of film on backup running back Marcus Coker who replaces Robinson. Neither of these teams average giving up even 20 points a game on defense, but I expect both to score a little more than that in this one. Missouri has an explosive offense led by Blaine Gabbert, and they always find a way to score points. Iowa isn't quite as explosive as Missouri, but they will have the element of surprise. This offense will be totally different that the one that Iowa has used for much of the season, and the replacements for the suspended players could really catch the Tigers off guard. Ricky Stanzi is the perfect leader to orchestrate a revamped offense for this game. Iowa has a bad taste in their mouths from how their season ended, and I think they come out fired up and surprise Mizzou.
Confidence Points - 5 points

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman (12/29 2:30 p.m.)
Maryland 44, East Carolina 34 - This could be a heck of a shootout. East Carolina had the one of the worst defenses in the FBS in terms of points allowed per game, 118th out of 120 in fact. It was ugly in some of their losses as they averaged allowing 43 points per game. You don't see that very often out of a bowl team. The last team Maryland faced that was even close to that bad in points allowed, they dropped 62 points on the scoreboard in a drubbing of Wake Forest. With almost a month to prepare for this game, the Pirates' defense should be a little better than they normally are, but Maryland will still put up a decent point total. The one thing that can keep ECU in this game is their explosive offensive attack led by Boston College transfer Dominique Davis. Davis has put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard himself this season as the Pirates wouldn't be bowling without beiing able to match all the points they were giving up on the other side of the ball. Davis should be enough to help the Pirates hang around in this one, but that defense likely will be their undoing in a loss to the Terps.
Confidence Points - 27 points

Texas Bowl (12/29 6 p.m.)
Baylor 38, Illinois 33 - This one really could go either way, but I believe the motivation is going to be stronger for Baylor to win this game. The Bears are in their first bowl game in 16 years, and would like to win it to erase memories of their final three regular season games, all losses to ranked divisional foes. Illinois had a very up and down season, playing very well in tough losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Missouri, and in blowout wins over Purdue and Northwestern, but they played poorly in bad losses to Minnesota and Michigan. The Michigan loss was only bad because they failed to play any defense in the game. The Illini have shown an explosive running game behind all-american Mikel Leshoure and quarterback Nate Scheelhaase, but Scheelhaase will have to have a solid passing game agaisnt Baylor to keep the defense honest. Baylor hasn't played as well down the stretch as they would have liked, but they don't have any losses to bad teams like Minnesota. Only Texas Tech can say they beat Baylor and are not in the top 25. Robert Griffin III will be looking to show off his running and passing ability, and while neither team is overpowering on defense, it will be Baylor's offensive balance that will win them this game. Griffin and tailback Jay Finley can run very effectively, and Griffin has a number of targets he can go to in the passing game with 4 different receivers with 40 or more catches on the season. This game will be close, but I think Baylor is the team that comes out with the win in a game that is much closer to home for them than it is for Illinois.
Confidence Points - 14 points

Valero Alamo Bowl (12/29 9:15 p.m.)
Oklahoma State 40, Arizona 31 - Arizona slumps into this game as losers of 4 in a row after a great start to the season. Oklahoma State has only been defeated twice all seson, and it was by the two teams that squared off for the Big 12 title. These teams really don't seem evenly matched when you simply look at the wins and losses, but Arizona was as good as anyone over the season's first 8 or 9 weeks. Nick Foles got hurt, and the team struggled a little bit as they switched back and forth between Foles and backup Matt Scott, but it wasn't the offense that struggled. The Wildcats' defense that ranked in the top 10 in the nation in yards and points allowed through those first 8 games really struggled down the stretch with the potent offenses of Oregon and Stanford. Oklahoma State is on that level offensively. Their three star players (QB Brandon Weeden, HB Kendall Hunter, and WR Justin Blackmon) were all first-team all-Big 12 players. That trio is hard for any defense to stop, and Arizona is going to learn that the hard way in the Alamo Bowl. It shouldn't hurt that Arizona's head coach is the brother of Bob Stoops, who coaches OSU's biggest rival Oklahoma. It was the loss to the Sooners that knocked the Cowboys out of the conference title game, and squaring off against his brother's team could serve as a way to exact a little revenge.
Confidence Points - 10 points

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (12/30 12 p.m.)
Southern Methodist 30, Army 14 - SMU has got a very strong balanced offense behind Zach Line's running and Kyle Padron's passing, and it will be difficult to slow that attack down for Army. Even though this game is called the Armed Forces Bowl, no one at Army came into this season thinking about a bowl game. The biggest game the Black Knights play each season is the one against Navy, which they lost badly a few weeks ago. It will be difficult to come out focused and ready for this game. Army runs a triple-option offense, but it is nowhere near as dynamic as versions run at Air Force, Navy, or Georgia Tech, and I expect SMU to be able to slow it down some. I don't expect Army to do the same to a very dynamic June Jones offense for the Mustangs. SMU won the first bowl they had played in 25 years last season, and a win here to get to 8-6 would be another step forward for a program that has risen from the ashes. Throw in the fact that this game will be played in SMU's home stadium and it just becomes difficult to see Army winning this game.
Confidence Points - 13

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (12/30 3:20 p.m.)
Kansas State 24, Syracuse 16 - This is a game between two very similar teams. Both are stingy against the pass and weak against the run on defense, and both are solid rushing teams and mediocre passing teams on offense. The game isn't far from home for Syracuse as it is the first bowl game at the new Yankee Stadium in New York. Syracuse and head coach Doug Marrone would love to christen the stadium with a big bowl win for the in-state team, but Daniel Thomas will likely have something to say about that. While these teams are very similar across the board, no one on Syracuse's team is as good as Daniel Thomas. He should be the difference in a very hard fought, smashmouth football game. I might be giving the Wildcats a little more credit than they deserve with how much confidence I have in this pick, but I still don't buy into the Syracuse Orange as a legitimate solid bowl team.
Confidence Points - 29 points

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (12/30 6:40 p.m.)
North Carolina 31, Tennessee 26 - Both of these teams feel lucky to be here at this point after the way their seasons started. Tennessee started off 2-6 before rattling off 4 straight wins to close the season with bowl eligibility in coach Derek Dooley's first season. They really started to find their rhythm when they switched quarterbacks from Matt Simms to Tyler Bray. North Carolina's struggles were more off the field as several Tar Heels were suspended for an academic scandal involving tutors writing papers for players and some of the players having improper contact with agents. At least 14 players missed at least one game for UNC, while 4 were ruled ineligible permanently. Many of their best defensive players were involved, including big-time NFL prospect defensive lineman Marvin Austin. Most people wrote off UNC as the scandal broke in the media. A team that was a major ACC title contender was suddenly being expected to fall apart, and after an 0-2 start against LSU and Georgia Tech, they could have packed it in and made that collapse a reality. These kids didn't do that. They battled back from the poor start and went 7-3 the rest of the way with a couple big wins along the way over Florida State and Clemson. They have been extremely scrappy so far, and it feels like no matter who is sidelined for this team, the players who take the field are going to scratch and claw for the win if they can. Tennessee hasn't had that same fight in them this season, and after battling back to get to 6-6 I think the Vols feel like they have turned this season into a success already. North Carolina isn't as content, and I think the Tar Heels will pull off another victory in this one, even in Tennessee at LP Field.
Confidence Points - 24 points

Bridgepoint Education Hoilday Bowl (12/30 10 p.m.)
Nebraska 38, Washington 21 - This game likely won't be a whole lot different than the first meetings between the two schools. It might be a little closer since Washington has seen what Nebraska can do firsthand, and also has had a few weeks to gameplan for the 'Huskers, but the talent gap is still too wide. Nebraska absolutely shut down Jake Locker in the first meeting while Taylor Martinez ran wild for them. The Huskies should certainly have some motivation to not get destroyed by Big Red again, but it might be tough to avoid. I think Martinez will be close to 100 percent for the first time in several games, and it will be a huge boost for the Nebraska offense, which should win easily again.
Confidence Points - 35 points

Meineke Car Care Bowl (12/31 12 p.m.)
South Florida 27, Clemson 23 - This one could be a sloppy game, and I'm really not sure who is going to win. Both teams have a penchant for playing close, lower scoring games, and both have questions at quarterback. For Clemson, qb Kyle Parker likely is already thinking about baseball season after a 6-6 campaign for the football team. Parker was drafted by the Colorado Rockies in June, but passed on an extra $800,000 to come back for one more season at Clemson before starting that baseball career in Denver. South Florida, meanwhile, has questions due to injury. It seems unlikely that B.J. Daniels will play in the bowl game, which would make the inexperienced Bobby Eveld the starter. Both defenses in this game have been strong all year, which will make the team that avoids giving the ball away more likely to pull this one out. Clemson will likely load up against the running game of Moise Plancher to force USF to throw with Eveld. It will be critical for the Bulls to block Da'Quan Bowers in the passing game so that Eveld has time to be effecive. Bowers led the nation with 15.5 sacks this season, and South Florida will do everything they can to block him. If Clemson uses some creative blitzes, they could really wreak havoc on the young qb, but I don't expect them to do so. The Tigers have been effective so far with the 4 man rush thanks to Bowers incredible talent, and a change in scheme now seems unlikely. Coaching adjustments will likely be the key in a very tough game to pick, and for reasons I really don't understand I like South Florida.
Confidence Points - 2 points

Hyundai Sun Bowl (12/31 2 p.m.)
Notre Dame 28, Miami FL 26 - This is a game that brings back together old rivals from the late 80's when both of these programs were among the nation's elite. They haven't played one another in 20 years now, and a Sun Bowl matchup with both sitting at 7-5 is hardly a way to resurrect a rivalry. Notre Dame looked headed for home without a bowl game as they entered the Utah game coming off a very disappointing loss to Tulsa that cost them starting quarterback Dayne Crist for the season. They were 4-5 with games remaining against a 1-loss Utah team and a very tough USC team that they seemed unlikely to win. This team really came together, however, starting with a blowout win in that Utah game in which they held the Utes to almost no offensive production for much of the day. Brian Kelly really got this team playing with confidence and a little bit of the old Notre Dame swagger despite losing several key offensive players to injury. Miami, on the other hand, spent most of the season ranked and was 7-3 headed into their final 2 games but lost both of them to Virginia Tech and South Florida. Head coach Randy Shannon was axed after the disappointing campaign, and I don't expect the Hurricanes to respond well to that in this bowl game. Quarterback Jacory Harris looked to Shannon as a father figure, and his up and down play really has been the story for this team. When he plays well, the team plays well, and when he doesn't, the team doesn't (13 TD-5 INT in 5 wins as starter, 1 TD-7 INT in 4 losses). I don't expect him to play well in this bowl game. Notre Dame will force a couple of interceptions, and all the Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry in the world will likely not be enough to overcome those errors. I think Brian Kelly gets another win out of this Irish team and a solid 8-5 showing in his debut season.
Confidence Points - 22 points

AutoZone Liberty Bowl (12/31 3:30 p.m.)
Georgia 37, Central Florida 20 - I am pretty confident that the Bulldogs will pull of this win to end with a winning record for the season. Ever since A.J. Green came back from his 4 game suspension the Bulldogs have been a different team. They lost his first game back to Colorado while they tried to incorporate him into the offense and get the rust off him, but they went 5-2 after that only losing to Florida in overtime and Auburn in a game where they led by 2 touchdowns in the first half. The Bulldogs can flat out score points, and UCF is hardly a dominant defensive football team. They do have a fair amount of offensive firepower with quarterback Jeff Godfrey, who can run and throw well, and running backs Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray up against a Georgia defense that really struggled agaisnt the run the last two regular season games against GT and Auburn. The matchup does pit the two highest rated freshman qbs in the country in passing efficiency, but the big game experience around Murray for Georgia in A.J. Green and Washaun Ealey could be a huge boost for the Bulldogs. I expect Georgia to win this game, and look very good doing so.
Confidence Points - 34 points

Chick-Fil-A Bowl (12/31 7:30 p.m.)
South Carolina 23, Florida State 19 - Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses in their respective conference title games. Both boast strong defenses, and both have pretty balanced offenses. Florida State favors Christian Ponder's passing attack just slightly, while South Carolina slightly favors the running game of Marcus Lattimore, but make no mistake, both of these teams can run and pass. The biggest question of this game will be whether or not Christian Ponder can play for the Seminoles. He's been banged up for much of this season and has had fluid drained from his elbow on his throwing arm several times over the past couple months. If Ponder plays, the 'Noles become much more dangerous. If he doesn't, the Gamecocks have a major advantage. I love this matchup as Steve Spurrier has a great history with Florida State from his days coaching the Gators, and Jimbo Fisher has really put his stamp on this Seminole team and had a strong first year to get into this game. I think the hard-nosed running of Marcus Lattimore will be the biggest difference in this game. Lattimore is the best back Spurrier has had in years, and he is really unlike anyone Florida State has already played against this season. You can watch film to get a good idea of how to stop someone, but you can't have Marcus Lattimore on your practice field every day. His punishing running style will wear down this FSU defense, and as long as Stephen Garcia doesn't make any critical mistakes in this game, I like the Gamecocks to come out on top.
Confidence Points - 6 points

That's all the picks for this week. Enjoy the next week of bowl games, there are some good ones. Everyone have a safe and happy new year, and make one of your resolutions to watch more football.

Bowl Predictions: Bowl Week 1

It's bowl season once again and every team that has earned a bid gets one final chance to augment their season with one extra win or diminish it with an extra loss. It's hard to say the bowl system isn't flawed when 70 out of the FBS's 120 teams get to play in a bowl game, but it still makes for some fun and interesting matchups. Things get underway this Saturday with three bowl games to kick off the festivities. For anyone unfamiliar with ESPN's college bowl mania game, with each bowl pick I give, I will include a confidence point number to express how confident I am in the pick. With 35 bowl games slated to be played, 35 points will go to the game I am most certain of and 1 point on the game that I am least certain of. Without further ado, here are my first few bowl picks with an explanation of why for each game.

New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. BYU (12/18 2 p.m.)
BYU 33, UTEP 17 - This is a game between two teams headed in the opposite direction. The Cougars opened the season 1-4 before getting things straightened out behind freshman quarterback Jake Heaps. The team finished on a 5-2 run with Heaps really coming into his own in the final 4 games, and the defense came together as well. Heaps averaged almost 250 yards a game over the final 4 contests and posted a 9-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio in the process. The Cougar defense allowed only 10 points per game over that stretch after allowing 27 a game for the first 8 outings. As BYU has come together, UTEP has fallen apart. The Miners opened 5-1, then finished 1-5. Conference-USA is hardly daunting, and the weak conference record leads me to believe they will be overmatched in Albequerque by the Cougars. I expect BYU to win easily.
Confidence Points - 30

uDrove Humanitarian Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State (12/18 5:30 p.m.)
NIU 30, Fresno State 23 - Northern Illinois has been fantastic for much of the season, but they were absolutely shocked by Miami (OH) in the MAC title game. The Huskies will be looking to prove that their 10-win season was no fluke, and Fresno will have a hard time stopping them. The Bulldogs have a great pass rush, but NIU quarterback Chandler Harnish will not be a stationary target. Harnish ran for 764 yards this season while star tailback Chad Spann went for over 1,250 yards while scoring 20 rushing touchdowns. It will be on Fresno's defense to slow that running game down. The Redhawks of Miami were able to do so in the MAC Championship, but few others have been able to do the same. In most of these lower bowl games, the deciding factor will be motivation, and it would appear that NIU should have more of that than Fresno. The Bulldogs relish opportunities to take on BCS conference schools in bowl games, and NIU is not even close to being one of those. The Huskies, meanwhile, would secure a school record 11th win if they can take down the Bulldogs. While it might be difficult to focus on the task at hand after the disappointing conference title loss, and then the loss of head coach Jerry Kill to the Minnesota Golden Gophers, I still think this NIU team will rally around the idea that this is the biggest game of their season. I think the Huskies win by a touchdown with that fantastic running game.
Confidence Points - 26

R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy (12/18 9 p.m.)
Ohio 27, Troy 17 - Neither team in this game has been overly impressive this season, but both have at least been consistent offensively. Ohio quarterback Boo Jackson set the school record for career touchdown passes this season, and the team had won 7 straight games before a huge letdown against Kent State knocked the Bobcats out of the MAC title game. Ohio will be looking for revenge in their bowl game, and head coach Frank Solich has plenty of bowl experience from his time at Nebraska. Troy is no slouch offensively either. Trojan qb Corey Robinson led the Sun Belt in passing yards and TD tosses, but his penchant for picks will likely be Troy's undoing against an Ohio team that simply will want to win this game more.
Confidence Points - 18

Beef O'Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl: Louisville vs. Southern Miss (12/21 8 p.m.)
Louisville 26, Southern Miss 17 - This game will be all about Louisville's Bilal Powell. He will run through, over, and around the Southern Miss defenders en route to a very good game and a big Louisville win. Southern Miss has shown some deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball all year long, and Louisville will certainly be willing to take advantage of those problems. Powell has been one of the best backs in all of college football, and Louisville has played solid defense this season under new head coach Charlie Strong. The Cardinals haven't been to a bowl game since 2006 when they were viewed as a powerhouse program and a perennial Big East title contender, and a bowl win to cap this season would be a nice step towards getting back to that level.
Confidence Points - 19

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl : Boise State vs. Utah (12/22 8 p.m.)
Boise State 45, Utah 21 - The Broncos will need some motivating from head coach Chris Petersen to get up for this game after being hopeful of a BCS bid for much of the season. I expect Petersen to have his team ready, though. Utah has not been the same team over the last 3 or 4 games of the season, and on top of that, their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn will not be playing in the bowl game against Boise due to injury. The Broncos will come out prepared and angry, and also ready to prove that their loss to Nevada was an anomaly and not the way they normally play. Kellen Moore, Titus Young, Austin Pettis, Jeremy Avery, and Doug Martin are just too many weapons for a good defense to contain, let alone a defense that has struggled of late. I think Boise will roll in this game, causing several mistakes by Utah's backup quarterback and putting up plenty of points as usual.
Confidence Points - 28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: San Diego State vs. Navy (12/23 8 p.m.)
Navy 28, San Diego State 24 - This one should be a great game. The Aztecs are enjoying a huge breakthrough season under Brady Hoke after going 10-26 over the past 3 seasons. Quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman have given SDSU a very strong balanced offense. Navy has also been exceptional on the offensive side of the ball, but balance has not been a strength. The Midshipmen run a triple-option offense run by experienced qb Ricky Dobbs who has helped the Middies to some big point totals and big wins this season. The Aztec D has been strong against the run this season but has really let them down in some big games against TCU and Utah. I expect Navy to have some success running the ball, but I also expect them to catch SDSU loading the box against the run and hit on a couple of unexpected downfield passes. the big plays will be the key to the game and I expect Navy to win a close one on the Aztecs' home field.
Confidence Points - 11

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa (12/24 8 p.m.)
Hawaii 48, Tulsa 34 - This game should be very entertaining as both offenses can put up quite a few points, but Hawaii is simply the better team. Bryant Moniz has lit up some defenses that are a bit better than that of Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane will likely get torched as well. With dangerous receivers like Keloha Pilares and Greg Salas, this game will be tough for Tulsa to hang around in. I expect the Rainbow Warriors to jump out to a lead early, and only a couple of Tulsa garbage time touchdowns will make this final score as close as I predict.
Confidence Points - 31

Little Caesar's Bowl - Florida International vs. Toledo (12/26 8:30 p.m.)
FIU 34, Toledo 28 - FIU certainly had its struggles early this season with an 0-4 start, but they were very competitive in losses to teams from higher leagues. Quarterback Wesley Carroll had a really strong year for the Panthers, and their offense seems to have really hit its stride of late. Facing off against a Toledo team that tied for the national lead in takeaways could present a challenge for that offense though. I expect this one to come down to who wants the game more, and I expect that to be FIU. Toledo has been to a decent number of bowl games over the past decade, and the Little Caesar's Bowl is hardly a desirable postseason location for them. For FIU, however, it's the first bowl game the school has ever been invited to, and a win would cap off a phenomenal year for the program. I expect the Panthers to get it done.
Confidence Points - 17

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Air Force vs. Georgia Tech (12/27 5 p.m.)
Georgia Tech 20, Air Force 17 - This game is really interesting because both teams play the same offense. One triple-option team is matched against another and these two squads rank first and second in the country in rush yards per game. Many people have written off the Yellow Jackets after a 6-6 season that certainly didn't live up to expectations, but Air Force also is disappointed by their final regular season record. After a strong start to the season, the Falcons lost badly to conference rivals TCU and Utah to really diminish their early season accomplishments. They did finish the year on a 3 game win streak, but that won't matter after a month layoff before the game. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson simply knows how to beat the Falcons. As head coach at Navy, he beat Air Force 5 straight times, and I expect him to continue that streak at Tech. It should be a very interesting game to watch, but I think the Yellow Jackets pull it out.
Confidence Points - 12

That's all of the games for this week, next week I'll have more picks for the upcoming bowl games. Everyone have a safe and happy holiday this week, and enjoy some exciting football action.

What We've Learned About College Football: Week 13

After a riveting rivalry week, the regular season is just about over, and most of what remains are final hurdles to secure BCS bowls and for two very important teams, a spot in the national title game. Yes, Oregon and Auburn each have one final test to determine their fate. With TCU already in the clubhouse at 12-0, all they can do is watch and root for Oregon State and South Carolina. College football has a way of throwing some late season curveballs at you, such as USC falling to UCLA to throw away a national title shot in 2006, and West Virginia losing a shot by falling to a mediocre Pitt team a few years ago in their season finale. As as matter of fact, 9 times in the BCS era, which is only 13 years long, a number 1 or 2 team in the BCS rankings has lost their final game of the regular season. The Ducks and Tigers better be prepared to play this Saturday, or that list could get longer. The Big East is also up for grabs with a domino effect scenario for the top three teams. It starts with UConn. If they can top South Florida, they win the league. If they lose, it falls on WVU to beat Rutgers. If West Virginia loses, Pitt can take the league with a win over Cincinnati. If all three lose, we have a 5-way tie that would still put UConn in the BCS bowl. A lot of BCS bowl teams will be decided this week with several conference title games going on. Even though last week was the biggest of the year, there is still plenty to watch this Saturday.


ACC -


The ACC is set for a title game between Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Hokies have come back from an 0-2 start to win 10 straight and be the first team to run the table in ACC games since 2001. Florida State has been very solid in the first year of the post-Bobby Bowden era. They've gotten where they are with defense, and a little help from inconsistent Maryland, NC State and Clemson teams. The ACC has 9 bowl eligible teams, and despite a down year, things are looking up at a few of their schools.


ACC title game pick - Virginia Tech over Florida State


Week 14 outlook - This game is all about Tyrod Taylor. The Hokies have been on an absolute roll, and Ryan Williams is finally healthy again running the ball. Florida State has really been strong defensively, but no ACC team aside from Georgia Tech, who FSU didn't play, has a quarterback that can run like Tyrod Taylor. That element of his game, combined with the fact that he doesn't turn the ball over with just 4 interceptions on the year puts the Hokies over the top. Christian Ponder is still not at full strength for the Seminoles, and Va. Tech is just playing too well right now. I like the Hokies by 10.


Big East -


You can argue that it is parity all you want, but what the potential five-way tie in the Big East says most about the league is that it isn't good. No team in the Big East would scare their potential opponent in a BCS bowl. West Virginia's defense is smothering, but their offense is offensive. Pitt has some great running backs and a solid defense, but they have this tendency to not show up for games. UConn has been beaten badly by Michigan and Temple, and they're in line to win a spot in a BCS game. There is some reason for optimism here, as South Florida has really come on strong of late, and Skip Holtz seems to have that program headed in the right direction, and Syracuse and Louisville have made strides as well. Until those strides turn into leaps and bounds, the Big East will continue to be ridiculed for how weak it is, even if TCU is still a powerhouse when they join.


Big East week 14 picks - UConn over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, West Virginia over Rutgers


Week 14 outlook - Both Pitt and West Virginia know what's at stake for them if they can win and get some help, and I don't expect either team to trip up. Cincy's seive like defense should make it easy for Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to rip them to shreds. Cincy can score, but that defense is just miserable. Rutgers has been fairly consistent this year, but they have been consistently bad. Greg Schiano seems to have no idea which quarterback gives his team the best chance to win. I think it's time to just give the ball to the freshman Chas Dodd and let him get some more experience. The kid has a big arm and he needs to be turned lose. Rutgers won't be a complete pushover, but West Virginia has been pretty good with their formula of getting a lead and sitting on it. I expect a low scoring game with WVU winning by a touchdown or 2. UConn is certainly the team with the best chance of losing out of the top 3 in the Big East. South Florida has been playing great football the past few weeks, including taking apart Miami a week ago. The Bulls are a really strong team, but Jordan Todman is a machine. If UConn continues to feed him the ball and Zach Frazer continues to make smart throws, this UConn team likely will get to their first ever BCS bowl game, which would be a great story even in this miserable year for the Big East. After starting 3-4, the Huskies have rolled up 4 straight wins, and I like them to notch a fifth this weekend. It should be a great game though, with the Bulls and B.J. Daniels coming up just short.


Big 12 -


What a shootout in the Bedlam game last Saturday night. Oklahoma survived a hard push from the Cowboys to get back in the game, and now the Sooners are slated to take on Nebraska for the Big 12 title. Despite not having an elite team, it was still a solid season for the Big 12 with Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma State all playing well above expectations. With that said, it comes down to one game for that BCS spot, and Nebraska-Oklahoma is the matchup everyone wanted in this game.


Big 12 title game pick - Oklahoma over Nebraska


Week 14 outlook - The Sooners just have too dynamic an offense for Nebraska to keep up. Even if the 'Huskers are able to slow down DeMarco Murray, and contain Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles in the passing game, it's still unclear if Taylor Martinez will play for Nebraska. Cody Green did a tremendous job against Colorado, but that wasn't the same caliber football team that the 'Huskers will see Saturday. I expect a close game, but I expect Oklahomka to win.


Big Ten -


The Big Ten is all wrapped up. Unless something unexplainable happens in the polls to move Ohio State or Michigan State past Wisconsin in the BCS rankings, the Badgers will be in the Rose Bowl, likely against TCU. Ohio State seems headed for a solid BCS bid as well, with MSU having to settle for the Capital One Bowl. It was a fun race, but a three-way tie seems unresolved to me. At least Bret Bielema can gloat about how running up the score helped his team get the Big Ten crown.


Big Ten week 14 pick - Illinois over Fresno State


Week 14 outlook - This pick is already wrong as Fresno won on Friday night. The Fighting Illini will still likely go bowling at 6-6, but it's a disappointing way to end the regular season for a team that showed real flashes of brilliance this season.


Pac-10 -


The Pac-10 race is already decided, but there is still a lot on the line this weekend. The Pac-10 decided that they should do their rivalry week a week after everyone else. Stanford and Cal are already done for the year, with Stanford a good bet for a BCS bowl, but everyone else still has their most hated rival yet. Oregon's Civil War against Oregon State is now the most important game on their schedule, because a win in that game would put them in the national title game. USC renews their rivalry with UCLA, and Washington heads into the Apple Cup game with Washington State with bowl eligibility at stake. The other game between Arizona and Arizona State was already played on Thursday, with the Sun Devils winning with a blocked extra point in double overtime. That's the kind of game that makes rivalries so fun, especially when the Sun Devils were heavy underdogs. It's a positive finish for a team that won't go bowling despite a 6-6 record, since they picked up two wins against the lowly FCS.


Pac-10 week 14 picks - USC over UCLA, Arizona over Arizona State, Washington over Washington State, Oregon over Oregon State


Week 14 outlook - I won't lie, I would have picked Arizona to beat Arizona State, which they did not do. USC should be able to beat UCLA, and possibly get Rick Neuheisel ousted as coach, but it looks like it will be Mitch Mustain under center again for the Trojans. Mustain struggled in the loss to Notre Dame a week ago, but UCLA has been in an absolute tailspin the past 6 weeks with just one win. Without much left to play for, it will be interesting to see if the Bruins get up for this game. Washington and Jake Locker head to Pullman to take on the WSU Cougars this week, and they are desperate for a win. They kept Cal from getting bowl eligible last week, and now can get themselves there with a win over the miserable Cougars. Jake Locker would love to get another game to showcase his skills to the pro scouts, and I think Washington wins this game easily. The Civil War should be intense this year. Oregon knows what's at stake, and head coach Chip Kelly seems to keep his guys focused every week. His constant defensive subs to keep his guys fresh seems like coaching genius, and the blur offense is simply not stoppable. The Ducks will shut down Jaquizz Rodgers, and it will be on Ryan Katz to move the ball with his arm, and I don't think he can move it enough to keep up with the Ducks. That Duck mascot better be ready to do a lot of pushups Saturday in Corvallis, because I don't think the Ducks are going to leave any doubt who the best team in the Pac-10 is.


SEC -


The Cameron Newton show that got put on in Tuscaloosa was jaw-dropping this past Saturday. Anyone watching that game felt like Alabama was just going to roll over the Tigers. These Tigers don't get rolled over. They have been behind in just about every game they have played, and not always small deficits. This game was different. The other big comebacks against Clemson, South Carolina, and Georgia were all at home. This game was in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide doesn't lose. They lost to Auburn. Cameron Newton continued to add to his legend with yet another impressive comeback, and he did it with his arm. Alabama shut down Newton's running game, but he responded with one of his best passing games of the season. The biggest reason for the demise of the Tide in this one was a failure to convert on scoring opportunities. Mark Ingram fumbled on what looked like a touchdown run, and Trent Richardson dropped a sure touchdown pass as the Tide scored only 6 points after the first quarter. Now it will take just one more win for Auburn to sew up a spot in the national title game.

SEC title game pick - Auburn over South Carolina

Week 14 outlook - This should be a very good game. Auburn will likely fall behind early as they usually do, but they will make offensive adjustments to right the ship. South Carolina is solid against the run, and they will make it tough for Newton and Onterio McCalebb to run early, much like Alabama did. The Gamecocks tend to struggle against the pass, and once Auburn sees that it will be tough sledding in the ground game, they will start to pick apart the South Carolina secondary. It will be critical for South Carolina to commit to the running game on offense, as Marcus Lattimore has been the biggest key to the team's success. The Gamecocks have been very focused the last couple of weeks with comfortable victories over Florida and Clemson, and they will need that focus against Auburn. I think Cam Newton has one more comeback left in him, and I think Auburn wins another one close, late.

Best of the Rest -

Boise State's run to a BCS game, and possible natinonal title shot came to a screeching halt last week as Nevada derailed Boise's season in overtime. Kyle Brotzman, Boise's kicker, missed two chip shot field goals, one for the win at the end of regulation and the other for a lead in overtime. It will be a memorable game for years, with great plays made on both sides, including a hail mary to Titus Young to set up the first missed field goal. Nevada overcame a 24-7 deficit with a dominant second half, and Boise's dream season came crumbling down. TCU wrapped up their 12-0 regular season and secured at least a spot in the Rose Bowl. The MAC title game was decided in shocking fashion as Northern Illinois was defeated in the final minute by Miami OH. The Huskies dominated MAC play and I would have picked them to win by 20 points, but the defense of the Redhawks shut down that vaunted Husky rushing attack. Conference USA will be decided in a title game between Central Florida and SMU after each team won last week. The only other league was decided last week by FIU defeating Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt.

Other week 14 picks - Central Florida over SMU, Troy over Florida Atlantic, Boise State over Utah State, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, Idaho over San Jose State, Hawaii over UNLV, Florida International over Middle Tennessee State

Week 14 outlook - I feel sorry for Utah State for drawing Boise the week after that letdown against Nevada. The Broncos will take their frustrations out on the Aggies and win by at least 30. Nevada should follow up their biggest win ever with an easy W over Louisiana Tech. Hawaii should be able to take down UNLV to create a three-way tie for the WAC title. SMU showed some struggles on defense last week against ECU, and Central Florida is a better team than the Pirates. I expect the Knights to win by two scores.

Conference Power Rankings -

1. SEC - They remain the unquestioned strongest conference.
2. Big Ten - Three Big Ten teams deserve to play in BCS bowls.
3. Pac-10 - Not as much depth as the Big 12, but 2 teams that are better than any in the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - A lot of solid teams, but no one jumps out as a powerhouse.
5. ACC - It took a while for the good teams to show up, but FSU and Virginia Tech should be a fun conference title game.
6. WAC - Boise's loss actually makes the league look better since Nevada only has one loss and Hawaii remains solid as well.
7. Mountain West - No one really wows you after TCU
8. Big East - As mediocre as the league is, it has started to make a strong comeback with runs by USF and UConn.
9. C-USA - Slightly above the MAC with the Huskies' slip up.
10. MAC - Miami OH as a league champ impresses no one.
11. Sun Belt - All you need to know: FIU must win their finale for the league champion to be above .500 overall.

My Top 25 -

1. TCU - 12-0 (prev. 1)
2. Auburn - 12-0 (4)
3. Oregon - 11-0 (2)
4. Wisconsin - 11-1 (5)
5. Ohio State - 11-1 (6)
6. Stanford - 11-1 (7)
7. Michigan State - 11-1 (9)
8. Arkansas - 10-2 (12)
9. Boise State - 10-1 (3)
10. Oklahoma - 10-2 (15)
11. Virginia Tech - 10-2 (13)
12. LSU - 10-2 (8)
13. Nebraska - 10-2 (14)
14. South Carolina - 9-3 (16)
15. Alabama - 9-3 (11)
16. Oklahoma State - 10-2 (10)
17. Nevada - 11-1 (19)
18. Texas A&M - 9-3 (17)
19. Missouri - 10-2 (18)
20. Florida State - 9-3 (20)
21. Northern Illinois - 10-2 (21) *before title game loss
22. Mississippi State - 8-4 (25)
23. West Virginia - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Maryland - 8-4 (UNR)
25. Utah - 10-2 (UNR)

Dropped from rankings: Iowa (22), North Carolina State (23), Arizona (24)

What We've Learned About College Football: Week 12

Welcome to rivalry week. Everything from the past eleven weeks of football has been leading to this Thanksgiving weekend. There are so many big games this weekend, it will hard to keep up with them all. The national title contenders will all be tested except TCU, several division and conference titles will be decided, such as the Big Ten, The ACC Atlantic, and both divisions of the Big 12, not to mention all of the fun rivalry trophries that will be won. Rivalries are what college football is all about. The pageantry and tradition of games like Michigan-Ohio State, Texas-Texas A&M, and Florida-Florida State keep the fan bases pumped. There are all kinds of cool rivalry names like the "Iron Bowl," the "Bedlam" game, The "Border War," and the "Backyard Brawl," as well as some not so cool names like the"Egg Bowl." The best rivalry game title of all might be "Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate," the game between Georgia and Georgia Tech. But nothing tops the goofy trophies that these schools decide to play for in these rivalry games. Here's a list of some trophies that will be up for grabs this weekend:

The Land Grant Trophy - Michigan State vs. Penn State
The Old Oaken Bucket - Purdue vs. Indiana
The Golden Boot - Arkansas vs. LSU
The Beehive Boot - Utah vs. BYU
The Victory Bell - Duke vs. North Carolina
The Governor's Cup - Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Paul Bunyan's Axe - Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
Hardee's Trophy - Clemson vs. South Carolina
The Bedlam Bell - Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
The Commonwealth Cup - Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
The Indian War Drum - Kansas vs. Missouri
The Jeweled Shillelagh - Notre Dame vs. USC
The Lone Star Showdown Trophy - Texas vs. Texas A&M
The Floyd of Rosedale - Iowa vs. Minnesota

Clearly some creativity has gone into coming up with these trophies, but my personal favorite is the Floyd of Rosedale. The Gophers and Hawkeyes play for a bronze pig that was named after Minnesota governor Floyd Olson in 1935, because he bet a prize hog against the governor of Iowa on a Hawkeye-Gopher football game and won. The hog was named Floyd for the governor, and the farm in Iowa that he came from was Rosedale. While this isn't the only strange trophy for football teams to play for, it certainly is a memorable one. Beyond all of the gimmicks of rivalry week, these games simply mean more to the players. Everyone gets a little more amped up when the hated rival comes to town. No underdog feels like they can't pull the upset. Jim Tressel said it best at his introductory press conference as head coach at Ohio State, when he boldly announced that it would be 310 days until the Buckeyes beat Michigan, and OSU hasn't lost that game since. Everyone knows how much the rivalry games mean. It can make a season to pull off that one big game against the rival. While not every game will be for a conference crown or a spot in the national title game, every single rivalry game will have a championship sort of feel to it, where nobody wants to lose.

A look around the country this week:

ACC -

It's official. Virginia Tech has won the coastal division and will play in the conference title game in Charlotte. Not too many expected that after a rough start in which the Hokies lost to Boise State and James Madison in a 6 day stretch. Most people believed the loss to JMU was a hangover from the Boise lost, as many experts have jokingly stated that the Hokies lost to Boise State twice. But that isn't what's important. The Hokies have rallied since the 0-2 start with 9 straight wins and likely a tenth over Virginia this week. Tyrod Taylor has really developed into the dual-threat quarterback that he was expected to be, and Ryan Williams has been good on the ground. As always, the Hokie defense has been the toughest unit in the conference and makes this team really tough to beat. North Carolina and Miami were the other contenders in the coastal division, but both had flaws that were too much to overcome and win the division. For North Carolina, it was the lack of depth and too few elite players caused by their roster being decimated by injuries and eligibility concerns. For Miami, it was a quarterback who struggled with turnovers, and then a shaky transition to backup Stephen Morris when Harris was hurt. As far as who Va Tech will play in Charlotte, that is still undecided. Maryland was the last team knocked out of the race with a loss to the Seminoles on Saturday. Now it's down to two and the Terps get a chance to play spoiler against NC State. If the Wolfpack beats Maryland, they will take the division crown and get to Charlotte, but if they lose, it will be the Seminoles making that trip. It's been a fun race for much of the season, and I expect Maryland and NC State to play a very entertaining game that keeps this race fun in its final week.

ACC week 13 picks - Virginia Tech over Virginia, North Carolina over Duke, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, North Carolina State over Maryland, Boston College over Syracuse, Florida State over Florida, Georgia over Georgia Tech, South Carolina over Clemson, Miami over South Florida

Week 13 outlook - There are very few sure thing picks this week in the ACC. Virginia Tech and North Carolina should be close to being locks against Virginia and Duke, but with rivalry games anything is possible. Georgia's offense has been explosive, and Georgia Tech's has not. The Yellow Jackets have struggled at times to get after the quarterback, and if Aaron Murray has time to let his receivers get open, he should have a great game in a victory over a GT team that doesn't do well if they have to keep up in a shootout. Clemson has played some great games this season with impressive wins over NC State and Maryland, and a close loss to Auburn. They will need to play that well again if they want to beat the Gamecocks. South Carolina is playing better than they ever have under Steve Spurrier, and the biggest reason is offensive balance. Before this season, no South Carolina running back had gone over 1,000 rushing yards with Steve Spurrier as his coach, and only Cory Boyd broke 700 yards. Marcus Lattimore has given the team that dimension as he already has the school record for TDs in a season. Alshon Jeffery has been pretty explosive as a receiver, and as long as South Carolina continues to mix things up on offense, they should be able to take down Clemson in the "Battle for the Palmetto State." Boston College and Syracuse will do battle in a not so fan-friendly low scoring, smashmouth affair. The Eagles may not be winning pretty, but that defense has been fantastic. Syracuse has started to show some cracks the last few weeks, and Boston College will do just enough to win again. Vanderbilt and Wake Forest play in a game with little fanfare this week. Both have been miserable so far, but The Commodores have been miserable against better competition. Wake Forest's defense really doesn't make it hard on anyone to score points, and I expect that to include Vanderbilt in a sloppy win for the SEC's worst team. Florida State and Florida is always a close game, and Florida has been very good at times this season, but they really lack consistency. Every time they seem to have found a new wrinkle or x-factor for their offense, they get blown out the next week. Trey Burton went for 5 touchdowns against Kentucky early in the season as a wildcat qb, then 'Bama blew them out the following week. It was Jordan Reed lighting up the Vandy secondary two weeks ago, only to not really get used against South Carolina in a devastating loss. The Seminoles haven't been inconsistent. They had one bad game against a very good Oklahoma team, but other than that, they have showed up every week. They lost to NC State and UNC, but both were close games that the 'Noles could have won. I think that consistency is what carries FSU to another hard fought win while they wait to see the winner of the Md-NC State game. Miami and South Florida square off in an in-state matchup Saturday, and Jacory Harris might be back for the 'Canes. Stephen Morris does have a big arm and has played fairly well the past few games, but I would expect Harris to start if he can go. USF has been playing very well in the Big East over the past few weeks, but no one in the Big East is as good as Miami. B.J. Daniels will struggle against a very good Miami defense, and Leonard Hankerson and Damian Berry will be tough to slow down. If not for Justin Blackmon, Hankerson would likely be the frontrunner for the Biletnikoff award for the nation's best receiver. That talent will be on full display as the 'Canes win by two touchdowns. In the big ACC game of the week, I think Maryland's woes against the top of the league continue in a loss to North Carolina State. The Terps are 7-4 overall, but they haven't exactly beat top competition. Their best wins all year are over Navy and Boston College, while they have lost to WVU, Florida State, Clemson and Miami. A lot of people are giving them a good chance to win this game, but I don't think it happens. I've believed for much of the year that the Wolfpack and Russell Wilson would be playing in Charlotte, and I still think that happens. I expect NC State to win by a touchdown.

Big East -

The Big East race is still a jumbled mess at this point, but it finally seems as though we can start to rule some teams out. Pittsburgh has managed to get to 4-1 in conference play, virtually eliminating all of the 3-loss teams in the league barring some collapse by everyone else. That pretty much leaves Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn as the only teams with a good chance of securing the league title and the automatic BCS bowl berth that comes with it. While most would agree that Pitt and WVU are the two most talented teams in the conference, it doesn't change the fact that UConn beat both of them head-to-head. Pitt is in the driver's seat with the one loss, but if they lose the Backyard Brawl to the Mountaineers this weekend, it will be UConn who has the most control in the Big East race. The Huskies face a Cincinnati team this week that has struggled to stop anyone, and then get the real test against South Florida next weekend. Wins in both of those games could leave the Huskies in the BCS, despite having 4 overall losses. While it's harrd to argue that any team from the Big East belongs in a BCS game, the rules aren't going to change between now and the end of the season.

Big East week 13 picks - Connecticut over Cincinnati, Miami over South Florida, Louisville over Rutgers, Boston College over Syracuse, West Virginia over Pittsburgh

Week 13 outlook - Miami should finish the season strong as their key offensive players get healthy and they should beat the Bulls. BC is on an absolute roll of late, and it's the defense that has been the driving force. Even without running back Montel Harris, that defense isn't going to let up this week, and the Eagles win a slugfest. UConn should be able to take care of Cincinnati. Randy Edsall has his Huskies playing very well the past few weeks with wins over the top 3 teams in the conference standings not named Connecticut. Cincy is not one of the top teams, and the Bearcat defense has allowed 30 or more points in every conference game but one, and a Louisville missed field goal is the only reason it wasn't all of them. I expect UConn to get to 30 as well, and handle the Bearcats by 10 points. Louisville needs a win over Rutgers to get bowl eligible, and the NCAA needs some of those 5-win teams to get number 6 this week. There are currently 64 bowl eligible teams in the FBS, and there are 70 bowl spots to be filled. Rutgers has really struggled so far this season, and although the Cardinals haven't exactly been special at 5-6, they have been competitive in every single game. Only Pitt beat Louisville by more than 8 points, and only Cincy and Oregon State have topped 30 points in a game against them. Rutgers, meanwhile, gave up 41 to Pitt and a whopping 69 to Cincinnati just a week ago. The Scarlet Knights have to feel a little demoralized after that game, and the powerful Louisville running game of Bilal Powell should be enough for the Cardinals to take down Rutgers this Friday and earn a bowl bid. The Backyard Brawl has a lot riding on it this week. Should the Panthers win, they are just a win over Cincy away from as BCS bowl game, but if West Virginia wins, The league becomes a three-way tie at the top as long as UConn doesn't fall to the Bearcats. Pitt would quickly become the long shot with their two losses being to the teams they are tied with. For the Panthers, this game is their season. They have really come along with a great running game led by Dion Lewis and Ray Graham, but West Virginia's defense has been like a brick wall at times this season. The Mountaineers are 4th in the country in scoring defense allowing just 13 points per game. Only Marshall has gone over 20 with 21 in an overtime loss to WVU. The Panthers haven't been quite as stingy, allowing almost 20 per game. You know the Mountaineers will keep Pitt from putting up a lot of points, but this game will come down to how many they can score themselves. Bill Stewart has to get a little more creative with the playcalling this week to get a couple of early scores. If WVU gets an early lead, it could be lights out for the Panthers, not just Friday, but for their season. I think West Virginia pulls out the win in a game where neither team is likely to get to 20 points, and it will live up the Backyard Brawl moniker.

Big 12 -

The final week in the Big 12 schedule is here, and neither division has been officially decided. Nebraska should feel pretty confident in the north, but after last week's game, and the injuries that Taylor Martinez has been playing through, beating Colorado this week is hardly a certainty. Bo Pelini seems convinced the refs are out to get him, and with the penalty yardage Big Red piled up last week, it's kind of tough to argue against him. The team set a school record for penalty yardage in a game, and some of the calls were questionable, and a couple were downright bad. If a few of those calls go their way, they might not have suffered the 9-6 loss to the Aggies. Missouri is their only competition for the north crown, and the Tigers are very unlikely to trip up against Kansas, so the pressure is on the 'Huskers to beat Colorado. The south title comes down to the bedlam game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys win the game, they would win the south outright, but with a loss and a Texas A&M win over Texas, it would become a 3-way tie to be decided by BCS rankings. If that were to happen, the Sooners seem like the favorites sitting 4 spots ahead of the Aggies, but if A&M is impressive against Texas, and OU wins sloppy, they just might get enough credit to move up. If the voters realize that the BCS rankings will determine the winner of a division, they might move their votes around to reward a team they feel is more deserving. A&M would have won 6 games in a row with a win over Texas, including a 14-point win over Oklahoma earlier this month, and if the division comes down to a vote between the Sooners and Aggies, that head-to-head win will no doubt carry weight with the voters. Regardless of how the weekend plays out, it has been a crazy year in the Big 12 with the team that was predicted last in the south (Oklahoma State) leading the division with just one game to play while the favorite to start the year (Texas) needs to beat A&M just to finish at .500 overall.


Big 12 week 13 picks - Texas A&M over Texas, Nebraska over Colorado, Missouri over Kansas, Kansas State over North Texas, Texas Tech over Houston, Oklahoma State over Oklahoma


Week 13 outlook - Missouri should roll over Kansas to keep the pressure on Nebraska this week. The Tigers can score in bunches, but few people realize how good the defense has been for Mizzou. Missouri is 7th in the country in scoring defense with just 16 points allowed per game, and Kansas isn't exactly explosive. The Tigers roll in this one easily. Kansas State closes out the year on a high note as they take on the terrible North Texas Mean Green. Daniel Thomas will not be very easy to stop in this one, and the Wildcats should win by 3 or 4 touchdowns without much trouble. Texas Tech needs to beat Houston to finish the season with a winning record, and since Houston has dropped three straight and is still playing without Case Keenum, I don't think the Red Raiders will struggle much on senior day in Lubbock. The Cougars will unfortunately avoid getting bowl eligible with the loss. Texas comes into the game with Texas A&M as losers of 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8, but they did take it to FAU a week ago. The Lone Star State Shootout will not be as easy a game for the Longhorns. Texas has really lacked much offensive firepower all season, and after shutting down Nebraska's high powered attack last weekend, Texas A&M should be looking forward to the sad Longhorn offense coming up next. Tannehill and the offense will do just enough to keep Texas at arm's length all day, especially since Cyrus Gray has really emerged during this winning streak. Gray has run for over 100 yards in every game of the 5-game streak, and if Texas sells out to stop him, Tannehill will make them pay. I like Texas A&M by 7 or 10 points. That brings us to the bedlam game. Both of these teams have really been explosive on offense and both have been led by a trio of skill players. For OU, its qb Landry Jones, hb DeMarco Murray, and wr Ryan Broyles. For the Pokes, the leaders have been Brandon Weeden, Kendall Hunter, and of course the unstoppable Justin Blackmon. Oklahoma likely has a slightly better defense than the Cowboys, but no matter what defenses OSU has faced, Blackmon, Weeden and Hunter just keep throwing up gaudy numbers. This is only the fourth time in 104 meetings in this rivalry that the Cowboys enter as the higher ranked team, and deservedly so. I expect Mike Gundy to play that up this week as he tries to ready his team for this game. Oklahoma State's extremely balanced offense should be enough to take down the Sooners, especially in Stillwater. The fan base will be as loud as they have ever been for the Cowboys, and it will undoubtedly be a little bit much for OU to deal with. This game will be a shootout, and I think the Sooners go down by a touchdown.


Big Ten -


Well we've said for weeks that each of the three teams at the top need one of the others to slip up to give them as sure conference title and BCS berth, but those stumbling blocks left in the way are just about gone. If this thing winds up in a tie with all three teams, it comes down the the BCS standings, which are awfully close at this point in the season. All of the ribbing that Bret Bielema has taken over running up the score certainly won't bother him if his Badgers are sitting highest in the rankings on selection Sunday. Wisconsin currently sits one spot ahead of the Buckeyes in the BCS standings, and for anyone who doesn't think that his point padding ways are helping his team at all, consider that Wisconsin was three spots behind Ohio State in the initial BCS rankings just one day after handing the Bucks their first loss of the season. They have made up that ground with style points. With the teams sitting at 7th, 8th, and 10th in the rankings entering the weekend, each one of the teams must make a statement to get some votes for themselves, and then let the lobbying and begging for votes begin. If any of the top three are upset, this becomes a moot point, but things will feel a little unsettled if all three teams are 11-1. There isn't a whole lot more excitement this week as all the teams have their bowl situations settled with Illinois picking up win number 6 over Northwestern at Wrigley last week. The Big Ten this week is all about rivalry games, and the goofy trophies that go with them.


Big Ten week 13 picks - Ohio State over Michigan, Michigan State over Penn State, Wisconsin over Northwestern, Iowa over Minnesota, Purdue over Indiana


Week 13 outlook - Iowa should be able to win the Floyd of Rosedale trophy this season with an easy win over the Gophers. Minnesota needs to play with a fire in them to stay competitive, but the ground game with Adam Robinson and the aerial assaut with Stanzi, Darrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt is just too much firepower for Minnesota to stop. Hawkeyes win easy. Purdue showed some fight last week against the Spartans, especially since they got quarterback Rob Henry back from injury. The team has been much better when Henry is in there with an upset over Northwestern, an easy win over Minnesota and a near win against Michigan State. Indiana is not a very good team, and I think the Old Oaken Bucket spends another year in West Lafayette. Wisconsin gets a Northwestern team that is just not the same without Dan Persa at the helm. The Wildcats also struggle to defend the run, as evidenced by Mikel LeShoure's 330 yard day against them at Wrigley. The Badgers will be chomping at the bit to run at that Wildcat front, even if John Clay doesn't go. Wisconsin only ran one pass play the entire second half last week against Michigan and still managed to score 24 points after the break en route to rolling up over 350 total rushing yards. Northwestern had better be ready for a lot of James White and Montee Ball this week. Evan Watkins, Persa's backup, should get accustomed to seeing J.J. Watt in the backfield all day when Northwestern has the ball, and I expect a little more criticism of Bret Beilema's point gouging ways. Ohio State and Michigan play in what many feel is the best rivalry in college football. The rivalry hasn't been quite as fun of late for Michigan fans, losers of 6 strainght in the series. A win this year would spoil the Buckeyes season and certainly ensure Rich Rod's job for another season. Michigan would love nothing more, despite the fact that the players are saying that it's just the next game. There's always some bad blood in this one, and this year will be no different. Ohio State will very likely come out on top in this one with Michigan's defense ranking near the bottom of the FBS in nearly every category. Ohio State has been a pretty decent offensive team, and that defense really only needs to make a few stops to feel like they will win the game. The emotion of the rivalry might help the Wolverines hang around a little bit longer, but the talent of the Buckeyes likely carries them to a two score victory. Michigan State gets PSU with more than just the Land Grant Trophy at stake this time. The Nittany Lions had been very good the past few weeks, except for the second half against the OSU Buckeyes last week. Michigan State hasn't been quite as sharp, struggling against several opponents the last few weeks including a bad loss to Iowa. MSU is due for a strong game. I expect the Spartans to really keep Evan Royster bottled up and do some things to fluster Matt McGloin in the passing game. The Spartan offense will get off to a quicker start by leaning on the running game with Baker, Bell, and Caper, and letting Kirk Cousins use the play-action game to pick apart Penn State. I think the Spartans win by 2 touchdowns and really keep this Big Ten race as tough to decide as ever.


Pac-10 -


There is very little to report in the Pac-10 this week. Oregon had a bye week while Stanford rolled over Cal. Both teams just keep on winning at the top of the conference, but the rest of the league has really started to look bad. With USC ineligible for postseason play, it is actually possible that only three Pac-10 teams get bowl eligible despite 6 bowl slots to fill. Making it even more complicated, if Stanford were to get a BCS bowl berth along with Oregon, that would make it only one more team eligible for a bowl game with 5 spots left to fill. That team would be Arizona. There are a couple hopefuls who could break that up for the conference by getting to 6 wins, but there are no locks. California gets Washington this week, and with Brock Mansion still at quarterback, it's no guarantee that Cal gets the job done against Locker and the Huskies. Oregon State is also just one win away, but still has Stanford and Oregon left on the schedule. Neither of those games are likely wins for a Beaver team that lost to UCLA and Washington State. The Huskies and Bruins also remain alive in the bowl hunt at 4-6, but both need to win out to get there. U-Dub still has Cal and Wazzu on the slate, while UCLA has to beat Arizona State and USC. All in all, this conference is ugly after the top 3. Traditional power conferences just don't have the same power they once had, and the Pac-10 helps to show that, just like the Big East.


Pac-10 week 13 picks - Arizona State over UCLA, Oregon over Arizona, California over Washington, USC over Notre Dame, Stanford over Oregon State


Week 13 outlook - Cal is at home this week, and coming off a great performance against Oregon, and playing to earn a bowl bid. I think the Golden Bears find a way, but I don't expect a rout as long as Kevin Riley is not playing. Jake Locker will keep the Huskies around for much of the game, but I think they come up short against Cal. UCLA hasn't been very good without Kevin Prince as it is, and now backup Richard Brehaut is banged up. That won't make the offense better. ASU needs this win for a little bit of pride, and I expect the Sun Devils to get it in a 10 point win. USC got throttled by Oregon State last week, but that was just the game they always struggle with. I feel like they will get back to playing solid, balanced football this week as Tommy Rees finally has a rough outing for Notre Dame. The Irish have been better the past two weeks, but I think USC gets up for the rivalry game and extends their winning streak to an all-time high 8 in a row over the Irish. If Matt Barkley doesn't play, the Irish probably pull off the win, but I think he will take the field and help keep the Jeweled Shillelagh in California. Stanford takes on a dangerous Oregon State team in Palo Alto this weekend. The Beavers may only be 5-5, but they have played well in some big games including a rout of USC last Saturday. Jaquizz Rodgers is a big-time playmaker for the Beavers and will have to be a big part of the gameplan if the Beavers want to pull the upset. Stanford is going to be much too strong for the Beavers though. As long as Stanford wins this game, they are very likely to get a spot in a BCS game as an at-large team, and there is no way Jim Harbaugh would let his team overlook this opponent with that much at stake. The Cardinal are very physical up front on both sides of the ball, and they will push the Beavers around and win by multiple touchdowns. Oregon must win again this week to stay in the hunt for the national title, and Arizona is the toughest opponent left on the schedule. The Ducks were held to just 15 points two weeks ago in Berkeley, and a lot of football pundits have talked about the Bears having created the blueprint for stopping the Ducks' blur offense. They loaded the box against the run and played a lot of man-to-man defense and didn't really switch things up when the Ducks ran the no-huddle. It worked fairly well, but the Ducks will make adjustments this week. Darron Thomas needs to be more crisp with his passes when his receivers beat man-to-man coverage, and he needs to be more willing to run the ball if the defense focuses on LaMichael James. If Thomas has success early, the Wildcats will likely adjust the defense, which will open up the things that Oregon normally likes to do in the running game. With this game at home in Autzen Stadium instead of on the road at Cal, I expect the Duck offense to bounce back and roll up the points again in beating Arizona by a couple of scores.


SEC -


This week in the SEC is all about the Iron Bowl. Sure, LSU has a big game to stay in contention for a BCS game against Arkansas, and Tennessee has a big rivalry game against Kentucky with a shot to become the 9th SEC team eligible for a bowl game, and Georgia could also get there as a possible 10th, but it's still all about the Iron Bowl. Both division titles have been decided, so this week is all about the national title picture. Auburn needs to beat Alabama to feel safe for now. There has been a lot of talk that the Tigers could lose to Auburn and still get back to the title game with a win over South Carolina in the SEC championship, but I wouldn't want to leave it up to the voters if I had a loss and there were 3 unbeaten teams left. Alabama enters the game as the favorite despite the worse overall record, but it's Auburn with the most on the line.


SEC week 13 picks - Georgia over Georgia Tech, Kentucky over Tennessee, Mississippi State over Ole Miss, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, Vanderbilt over Wake Forest, LSU over Arkansas, Alabama over Auburn


Week 13 outlook - I've already gone over a few of these games in the other conferences, so I won't spend much time on those. The Georgia offense will be enough to beat GT, Florida State's consistency carries them past an up and down Gator team, and Vanderbilt is slightly less miserable than Wake Forest and should beat the Deacs. South Carolina's balance on offense is the key difference in this year's team that allows them to sustain success and beat a very solid Clemson team. That leaves us with just the conference games to talk about. Tennessee never loses to Kentucky. Never. In fact, the Vols have beaten the Wildcats 25 consecutive times, the longest active streak in the nation between two teams. Add in the fact that Tennessee has won 3 straight games in very impressive fashion after a 2-6 start to keep bowl hopes alive, and everything points to the Volunteers beating Kentucky again to get to that 6th win and bowl eligibility. With all of that said, I like Kentucky to win this game. Derek Dooley has not been trying to get his players to treat this game like it's bigger than any other they've played, and the problem is that it is indeed bigger. I guarantee Joker Phillips is trying to fire up his players to finally end this streak of losing to the Vols, and to do so in Knoxville would be even better. Tennessee has certainly been susceptible to giving up some points against good offenses, and Kentucky has shown an ability to score with almost 35 points per game. This game will also be a big one for Randall Cobb, who grew up near Knoxville but wasn't offered a scholarship by UT until he had already decided to go to Kentucky. I expect Cobb to show the Vols what they could have had with a monster game, and I expect Rocky Top to run blue in a shattering defeat for Tennessee. The Egg Bowl has a different feel to it this year, as it is the Bullogs of Mississippi State who come in as the favorites and the coaches seem to be taking shots at each other through the media. Ole Miss would like to believe they can win this game, but I really think the Bulldogs need a big win here to cement this season as a huge breakthrough year for the program. Ole Miss has already had a poor season at just 4-7 overall, and while a rivalry win here would be a nice high note to go out on, MSU just needs it more. The Rebel defense is not very good, and I expect Vick Ballard and Chris Relf to establish the run early, and Mississippi State to come out on top in Oxford to finish the year at .500 in SEC play for just the second time since 2000. It would also be the first consecutive Egg Bowl wins for MSU since 1998-99. LSU and Arkansas play in the only SEC game that holds a candle to the Iron Bowl this week. The battle for the Golden Boot should be heated , as both teams feel as though a BCS bowl is not out of reach with a win. The Tigers have had so many near losses and narrow escapes, it's hard to keep track at this point. From Tennessee to Florida to Alabama to Ole Miss, they just keep finding ways to pull out the close games with a smothering defense and gutsy play calling. Arkansas has been a different story. The Razorbacks have an explosive balanced offense as Ryan Mallett has thrown for twice as many yards as the two LSU quarterbacks combined, and top Arkansas running back Knile Davis has more yards on the ground than LSU's leading rusher Stevan Ridley. That's a lot of firepower for any defense to slow down, but LSU should be up to the task. While the numbers show balance for the Hogs O, it really is driven by Mallett and the passing game, and the LSU D ranks fourth in the FBS in fewest passing yards allowed per game. That stat becomes even more intimidating when you realize that Greg Childs is out for the rest of the season and won't be there to catch passes from Mallett. LSU's Patrick Peterson is the best cover corner in the country, and he will likely take Joe Adams out of the game all by himself. That makes it much easier for the rest of the Tiger defense to focus on Knile Davis, D.J. Williams, and Jarius Wright. Mallett doesn't have the athletic ability to make plays with his legs, so it seems unlikely that Arkansas will be able to roll up the offensive numbers they are accustomed to. On the other side of the ball, the Hogs have shown a penchant for giving up some big plays, most notably against Auburn. Arkansas' defense has allowed 20 or more points in all but 4 games this year, and the LSU defense has only allowed 20 or more 4 times. Something has to give in this one, and I always go with a great defense over a great offense. I like LSU in another tight finish. That brings us to the Iron Bowl. This is quite possibly the biggest game left on the schedule until the national title game. Auburn needs this game, but Alabama is downright unbeatable in Tuscaloosa. They don't even struggle at home. Cameron Newton will be every bit the force he's been all year in this game, but Alabama still may be too much. Greg McElroy is a great field general, Julio Jones is a phenom at wideout, and both Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson seem fully healthy headed into this game. We've all seen the Auburn defense get torched this year against Arkansas and Georgia, and to a degree against Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They just always seem to have enough offense to overcome those defensive woes. Alabama is not the team to let them get away with that. The pressure will be on Newton to make plays in the passing game against this young Tide secondary because 'Bama will do everything they can to slow down Newton and McCalebb running the ball. Nick Fairley and the Auburn defensive front also must do a decent job of slowing down 'Bama's run game and force McElroy into third and longs, or it will be a long day for them also. The Crimson Tide simply want to keep the Tiger defense on the field as long as possible, and keep Cam Newton watching from the sidelines. If they can pull that off, they will pull off this win at home. I like the Tide by a touchdown in a game for the ages.

Best of the Rest -

Well, I'm running out of reasons to talk about Boise State and TCU since all they can do is continue to dominate and wait for the teams above them to trip up. Boise put a 55-0 thumping on Fresno State last Friday but still sits behind TCU in the BCS standings. This week may change that. The gap has been shrinking over the last few weeks, and the Horned Frogs get a terrible New Mexico team on Saturday while Boise draws no. 19 Nevada who has only lost once all year. Even if both teams win convincingly, Boise may jump TCU due to the bump in strength of schedule. Then it's on someone ahead to fall. Both teams have legitimate arguments for why they belong in the title game, but one that might get the Broncos a leg up is the point that they beat a TCU team with mostly the same players a year ago in the Fiesta Bowl. Don't be surprised to hear Chris Petersen or other people at Boise make mention of that over the next couple weeks if a national title spot is at stake. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, Ohio needs only to beat Kent State this weekend to set up a MAC title game showdown with very impressive Northern Illinois. If the Bobcats lose, it will be the Redhawks of Miami OH who get the east crown. Conference USA has a wild weekend ahead with neither division settled and 5 teams still vying for the league title. The race in the west is simple. SMU will win the division with either a win over East Carolina or a Tulsa loss to Southern Miss. Tulsa must win and see the Mustangs lose to steal the division title away. Over in the east, Central Florida can make things easy by beating a Memphis team that has already lost 10 times. If the Tigers pull the shocker, things could get messy. Both Southern Miss and ECU are still alive here, with both needing help from the other. ECU would actually need Southern Miss to beat Tulsa and beat SMU themselves to create a 3-way tie for the division. With a 4-1 record in the division, the Pirates would own the tiebreaker. Southern Miss needs almost the same scenario, just with an ECU loss to the Mustangs. The Eagles beat UCF and would have the edge in a two team tie with them. I told you it was complicated. Luckily, Central Florida is very unlikely to lose and that would make the other scenarios useless. The only other league left is the Sun Belt, where FIU would seal up the conference title and a bowl bid with a win over Arkansas State this week. The Troy Trojans hold out hope that FIU could lose to both Arkansas State and and MTSU to open the door for them to take the conference, but it seems pretty far-fetched. The Panthers have been very solid in Sun Belt play. A few other things to watch are teams fighting for bowl eligibility. Here are a list of the biggest non-AQ teams that could get there this week: Western Michigan, Houston, Troy, FIU, and Idaho.

Other week 13 picks - Boise State over Nevada, TCU over New Mexico, Ohio over Kent State, Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Central Florida over Memphis, SMU over East Carolina, Southern Miss over Tulsa, Florida International over Arkansas State, Troy over Western Kentucky, Western Michigan over Bowling Green, Fresno State over Idaho, Utah over BYU, San Diego State over UNLV, UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette, Buffalo over Akron, Toledo over Central Michigan, Marshall over Tulane, Hawaii over New Mexico State, Middle Tennessee State over Florida Atlantic, Louisiana Tech over San Jose State, UAB over Rice

Week 13 outlook - Boise-Nevada is the most important game here. The Broncos haven't been tested yet, and I see no reason to believe Nevada will be the team to knock them off. Colin Kaepernick has been tremendous for the Wolf Pack, but Boise State's defense has been lights out against everyone. Kellen Moore and the offense haven't really had to play a fourth quarter in a while, and the Nevada defense is unlikely to change that. This game should be a little closer than the past couple over Hawaii and Fresno, but I still expect the Broncos to win by at least 24 points. TCU will have to win by 50 to keep pace with Boise since their opponent is much weaker than Nevada. But against the lowly New Mexico Lobos, that might be more than just possible, it might be likely. Ohio will not trip this week against a pretty poor Golden Flash team, and they should earn another trip to the MAC title game. In that title game, they will meet Northern Illinois, who will likely be fresh off a blowout win over Eastern Michigan, probably about a 30 point margin of victory. Central Florida will throttle Memphis to take the mystery out of the C-USA East race. ECU and SMU should play in a crazy shootout, as East Carolina has given up 40 or more more points in 3 of their wins as well as all 5 of their losses. SMU's balance on offense will be the difference as the Mustangs will win the west with the victory and set up a conference title game against UCF. Since the SMU game is 4 and a half hours before Tulsa and Southern Miss square off, it will be known by kickoff that the Mustangs clinched the division title. That will take all of the life out of the Golden Hurricane, and USM is still inspired to play well in honor of their teammates wounded in a shooting. I expect USM to win by 2 touchdowns if SMU wins early, and by a field goal or so if the Mustangs lose. FIU should wrap up the Sun Belt against Arkansas State as they have really owned the other teams in conference play. Troy will beat Western Kentucky with ease, but it won't matter for the conference title since FIU will win, but it will get Troy bowl eligible. Western Michigan will get bowl eligible with a win over Bowling Green, but Idaho will fall short of 6 wins against Fresno State, and Houston will do the same against Texas Tech. UL-Monroe will also get win number 6 in a rivalry win over UL-Lafayette, but they need some other teams to lose to make sure they can't be left out of a bowl game. San Diego State should recover nicely from a heartbreaking loss to Utah a week ago with UNLV up next, and Utah is back on track and should beat BYU to get to 10 wins on the year. In the only other game that means something this week, I expect Buffalo to top Akron and keep the Zips as the only winless team in the FBS.

Conference Power Rankings -

1. SEC - Half of the conference is ranked and 5 teams still feel like they have a shot at a BCS bowl game. The talent at the top and the depth is incredible. Throw in that both Auburn and LSU feel like they could still win the national title and the SEC is still firmly at the head of the class.
2. Big Ten - The power conference of the midwest is still the next in line with great talent at the top. The depth is thinning a little with Northwestern losing Dan Persa, but there are 8 bowl eligible Big Ten squads.
3. Big 12 - While the Big 12 has lost all hope of a national title contender, Oklahoma State is still a fantastic one-loss team and there are several very good teams including Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
4. ACC - The Pac-10 is certainly better at the top with Oregon and Stanford, but Va Tech provides a legit BCS team while FSU, NC State and Miami provide better depth than the Pac-10 has right now.
5. Pac-10 - When the 4th best possible bowl team in you league is 5-6 Cal, depth is a problem. Things would be better if USC weren't banned from playing in the postseason this year.
6. Mountain West - There are still more quality teams in the Mountain West than the WAC. Fresno and Hawaii don't measure up to SDSU and Air Force.
7. WAC - The WAC is still better than the Big East despite not matching up with the MWC.
8. Big East - West Virginia, UConn, and Pitt are all coming off of wins and all seem better than the top of C-USA right now.
9. Conference-USA - UCF's loss to Southern Miss makes it hard to put this league ahead of a Big East that has had more consistency of late.
10. MAC - Things are settled at the top for the most part, but things are ugly at the bottom.
11. Sun Belt - This really has the feel of an FCS conference. No one is bowl eligible yet, and mathematically, no one has to end up that way.

My Top 25 -

1. TCU - 11-0 (prev. 1)
2. Oregon - 10-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 10-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 11-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 10-1 (5)
6. Ohio State - 10-1 (6)
7. Stanford - 10-1 (8)
8. LSU - 10-1 (9)
9. Michigan State - 10-1 (10)
10. Oklahoma State - 10-1 (12)
11. Alabama - 9-2 (11)
12. Arkansas - 9-2 (13)
13. Virginia Tech - 9-2 (14)
14. Nebraska - 9-2 (7)
15. Oklahoma - 9-2 (15)
16. South Carolina - 8-3 (19)
17. Texas A&M - 8-3 (21)
18. Misouri - 9-2 (17)
19. Nevada - 10-1 (18)
20. Florida State - 8-3 (24)
21. Northern Illinois - 9-2 (20)
22. Iowa - 7-4 (16)
23. North Carolina State - 8-3 (UNR)
24. Arizona - 7-3 (25)
25. Mississippi State - 7-4 (22)

Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (23)