Week 4 of a very exciting college football season is in the books, and there is a lot to talk about. There were several big games on the slate, and almost all of them delivered big time drama and great football. This week, I actually learned the most from the things I was wrong about. For starters, I thought Mack Brown was too smart a coach to let the Longhorns get beaten by UCLA. All he had to do was bottle up UCLA's run game and get Texas's ground game going. Judging by the 264 rush yards UCLA put up compared with the 85 that Texas put up, Mack Brown did not heed my advice, and has a 34-12 loss to show for it. Auburn showed some more resiliency, coming back from down 20-7 to win yet again, this time over South Carolina. They showed more than just an ability to come back on the scoreboard. They have been in a handful of knockdown, drag out physical brawls, and they keep coming back the next week for another one, and they keep winning them. Marcus Lattimore was physical as always, but he lacks the quickness to be a top notch running back in the SEC. The defenses are beating him to the hole, and no amount of physicality will beat an SEC gang tackle. It didn't help that South Carolina got away from the running game in the second half. Lattimore had 3 carries in the second half, compared with 14 in the first half, and the Gamecocks were ahead for a good portion of the second half. Stanford is one team that I was way off on. They did more than enough to bottle up Notre Dame's balanced offense, and although Notre Dame didn't allow Andrew Luck to light them up (he was 19-32 for 238 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks), Stanford ran the ball down their throats for the majority of the second half. They are one of the few teams left in the country that will line up with a fullback and tight end and just run right at you. Coach Jim Harbaugh has instilled a mean streak in this team, and they flat out intimidate people. No player demonstrates those qualities better than fullback/linebacker Owen Marecic. Marecic scored on pretty much consecutive plays from scrimmage with a short touchdown run as a fullback, and then an interception return for a TD as a linebacker. That power football that Stanford played resulted in a 13 minute advantage in time of possession and a dominant 37-14 final score. The other big game of the week was between Alabama and Arkansas. I was way off on the numbers that Ryan Mallett would put up, but the Alabama secondary came through when it needed to with 2 late interceptions to help lead to a 24-20 comeback victory. Mark Ingram was back to being the same player who won the Heisman last season, and Alabama may not have won by 10 points like I said, but they really took the game over in the second half. Now lets take a look at the conference races and how they shape up.
ACC -
Things are starting to sort themselves out in the ACC. The biggest surprise of week 4 came in North Carolina St. thumping Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Saturday. Georgia Tech's offense really isn't built to play catch-up, and Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack got off to a fast start and never looked back. Josh Nesbitt isn't an accurate passer in general, and every time the Yellow Jackets got within striking distance, Wilson and the offense would go down the field and put the lead back to a safe margin. Russell Wilson is in his fourth year as the starting qb at NC St., and that experience has shown on the field. The Wolfpack are now my frontrunner in the Atlantic division of the ACC. Florida St. thumped Wake Forest as expected, even if they didn't put up the 50 points I predicted. I believe 31-0 is convincing enough. FSU and Clemson look like the only legitimate competition for the Wolfpack in the division, but NC St. is my pick for now. Virginia Tech has continued to restore the order to the Coastal division with a 19-0 win over Boston College. Miami continued to look very stong with an easy win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Coastal division looks like a two team race between the Hokies and the Hurricanes, and I feel like their meeting on Nov. 20th will likely decide the division. Georgia Tech at 1-1 in ACC play isn't out of the discussion yet, and North Carolina could still make some noise as well after finally picking up a win over Rutgers this past weekend. They do, however, have to play each of the top 3 Atlantic teams this season.
Week 5 ACC picks - North Carolina over East Carolina, Georgia Tech over Wake Forest, Notre Dame over Boston College, Florida State over Virginia, Maryland over Duke, Miami over Clemson, Virginia Tech over North Carolina St.
Week 5 outlook - Most of these picks seem kind of obvious to me. Wake Forest and Duke have been very bad and are easy to pick against. UNC is getting their legs under them finally, and will be prepared for ECU and should get to 2-2. Florida St. should have little trouble with the Cavaliers, and Notre Dame finally gets a weak opponent and should be able to take down BC by at least 2 scores. The other two games are doosies. Miami and Clemson have gone to overtime in each of the previous 3 meetings since Miami joined the ACC. Clemson has a very solid run offense, and Miami struggled a little bit to stop Dion Lewis's backup in the second half last week against Pitt. Throw in the fact that Clemson has had two weeks to prepare for this team and Jacory Harris's penchant for throwing picks, and all the ingredients are there for Clemson to pull the upset. I still don't think they will. I think Miami goes into Death Valley and continues to play stellar team defense and keeps Clemson guessing just enough on when they're on defense to win by a touchdown, and I don't think it will take overtime this week. After heaping praise on Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack a moment ago, I have to pick against them with the big bad Hokies coming to town. Virginia Tech is the most talented team in this matchup, and they are quickly gaining steam. NC St. seems to be approaching their 4-0 start with a humble attitude, and I don't think they will be intimidated by VT, but I think the Hokies win this one close.
Big East -
Outside of Cincinnati putting up a fight and nearly beating the Oklahoma Sooners, no one in the Big Least showed any signs of life this past weekend. Rutgers and West Virginia were the last remaining unbeatens in the league, and both were defeated this past weekend. Rutgers played a decent game against 0-2 North Carolina but came up short. West Virginia failed to defeat LSU despite the Tigers lack of a passing game. LSU won on defense and special teams, and they held Noel Devine to 37 yards rushing. Pittsburgh also looked terrible this week in losing by 4 touchdowns to Miami. They demonstrated yet again that their offensive line is terrible, and they are getting no consistency out of qb Tino Sunseri. The d-line struggled to generate much pressure when a four man rush was employed, so they had to blitz to get after Jacory Harris. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Harris is a better passer against the blitz. Cincy really showed that their season is far from over in pushing a solid Oklahoma team to the limit. If not for a muffed punt, the Bearcats really might have won the game. Through 4 weeks, every team in the Big East is 0-0 in conference play, so nothing is decided yet. West Virginia has to still be considered the favorite, with only Cincinnati, Rutgers and possibly South Florida as other contenders.
Week 5 Big East picks - Vanderbilt over UConn, Rutgers over Tulane, Pittsburgh over Florida International, South Florida over Florida Atlantic, Louisville over Arkansas State
Week 5 outlook - Finally a week where the Big East should win most of their games. UConn is the one Big East team I expect to see lose this week. A quarterback switch from Zac Frazier to Cody Endres will not make the Huskies better. I expect their offense to struggle, especially if Jordan Todman can't go again, and Vanderbilt to take them down. Rutgers, Louisville, and South Florida don't require much explantion this week. Pitt, however, gets an FIU team that has lost tough games against Maryland and Texas A&M the last two weeks. Pittsburgh has struggled this season, but their defense is better than that of Maryland, and Dion Lewis should finally get rolling against a defense that gave up over 40 points to an average Maryland team last week. I expect the Panthers from Pitt to win by a couple of scores.
Big 12 - If last week taught us anything about the Big 12, it's that the conference is mired in a very bad down year, especially for the traditional powerhouses. The Big 12 is at best the 4th best conference in the country, which signals a big fall for a conference that has put a team in 7 of the 12 BCS National Championship games, including the last 2. Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are the 3 teams that have represented the league in that game, and all 3 had a rough week 4. This is the worst Texas team since Colt McCoy's freshman season, and the way they got dismantled by UCLA despite giving up fewer than 30 passing yards shows it. Rick Neuheisel is known as a quarterback guru, and UCLA ran the ball all over Texas last week. That just should not happen. Oklahoma narrowly escaped an upset at the hands of the Cincinnati Bearcats after recovering a muffed punt to set up the game-winning score. Oklahoma has made a bad habit so far this season of letting big underdogs hang around, beating Air Force, Utah State, and now Cincinnati all by 7 points or less. It really makes the FSU game look like an aberration. The other powerhouse in the Big 12 failed to throttle South Dakota State. A week after putting up over 50 points on Washington in Seattle, they came back home to only win 17-3 against a team that they should have run out of the building. The Huskers get the win, but not an impressive showing. Oklahoma and Nebraska clearly still look like the favorites to win their divisions, but there are a handful of unbeatens who would love to challenge. Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in the South along with Missouri and Kansas State in the North are all still unbeaten overall, and Baylor is unbeaten in league play and could be a factor as well. Conference play heats up this week.
Week 5 Big 12 picks - Oklahoma St. over Texas A&M, Baylor over Kansas, Oklahoma over Texas, Texas Tech over Iowa St., Georgia over Colorado
Week 5 outlook - Texas Tech seems an easy pick against ISU, who may be the worst team in the Big 12. Baylor is better than the Jayhawks, but this Jekyll and Hyde Kansas team might just surprise them. I expect Robert Griffin III and the Bears to be able to hold them off. Georgia gets AJ Green back this week and it could not come at a better time. The Buffs are playing solid football, and Georgia is no lock to beat them. Aaron Murray must play better this week for the Bulldogs to be victorious, but with all the talk about Mark Richt's job status, I think Georgia pulls this one out. Oklahoma State and Texas A&M should be a heck of a game on Thursday night. Kendall Hunter's speed and elusiveness will be the biggest factor when the Cowboys have the ball, and Jerrod Johnson has yet to live up to the hype of being one of the best qb's in the Big 12. I think the Cowboys win close. The biggest game of the Big 12 schedule every season is the Red River Shootout between Oklahoma and Texas and this year is no exception, especially in the South division. It looks like the Sooners are the stronger team this season. If they learn from what the Bruins did last weekend, the gameplan on offense will revolve around DeMarco Murray. The Sooners should be able to run the ball very effectively, and they need to be ballhawks on defense when Garrett Gilbert throws the ball. UCLA forced 5 turnovers against the Longhorns, and Oklahoma should try to do the same. I think Texas will play much better than they did against the Bruins, but Garrett Gilbert still just doesn't seem to get it, and Oklahoma has played its best football in the biggest games. Look for the Sooners to win by around 10 points.
Big Ten -
Week 4 didn't teach us a whole lot about the Big Ten as it's hard to learn anything from a bunch of blowouts over bad teams. Ohio St., Michigan St., Wisconsin and Iowa won easy games. Purdue was terrible in losing to Toledo. Michigan made sure to not take Bowling Green lightly and dropped 65 points on the Falcons with Denard Robinson sidelined for much of the game. Penn State leaned on Evan Royster the way they needed to, but struggled to finish off drives and only scored one TD in the win over Temple. They had to settle for 5 field goals, continuing to show that Penn State is not the powerhouse that they were expected to be entering the season. If Bernard Pierce hadn't gotten hurt, Temple might have been able to win the game. Northwestern stayed unbeaten after a tight game with Central Michigan, and may have a clear path to 6-0 with Purdue and Minnesota in their next 2 games. Conference play starts this week, and we might finally get some real answers about who the best teams in the Big Ten are.
Big Ten Week 5 picks - Northwestern over Minnesota, Ohio St. over Illinois, Michigan over Indiana, Michigan St. over Wisconsin, Iowa over Penn State
Week 5 outlook - Ohio State should win easily, but none of the other games are guarantees. Minnesota just hasn't looked sharp so far this season, and Northwestern keeps finding ways to win, and I see those trends continuing this week with the Wildcats winning in Minnesota. Michigan looks very difficult to stop on offense, with or without Denard Robinson on the field, but it looks like he will start this week. Ben Chappell has been solid for the Hoosiers so far, but Michigan will manage to outscore Indiana in this one. I expect both teams to put up decent point totals, but the Wolverines to win by 2 scores. Iowa will take it to Penn St. If the Nttany Lions thought Bernard Pierce was tough to stop, wait til they get a load of Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton. The Hawkeyes will stack the box against Royster and the running game and will make freshman qb Rob Bolden beat them with his arm. He won't be able to do it. I expect Iowa to win in a walk. It won't be a close game. The best Big Ten game of the week will be between the Badgers and Spartans in East Lansing. The Spartans are underdogs at home, but that suits them just fine. They've been very impressive in their 4-0 start, and having the home crowd and Mark Dantonio back in the coach's box will be huge lifts for this team. They will load up against Clay and the running game make Scott Tolzien beat them with his arm. Tolzien is a decent quarterback, but Wisconsin hasn't been quite as sharp in their overall execution as the Spartans this year, and this is the toughest road environment they have seen yet. I expect the Spartans to come out on top.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 had a banner Saturday this past weekend. UCLA went into Austin and throttled the Texas Longhorns who were ranked in the top 10. Stanford was the big winner in the other marquee non-conference game for the league as they stomped Notre Dame into the ground in South Bend. Oregon State came up short against Boise, but no one really expected them to win, and many people expected them to get destroyed. They did hold their own, and will likely be ok against the Pac-10. Through 4 weeks, Oregon, Stanford, USC, and Arizona are all still undefeated, and UCLA has shown signs of life beating back-to-back ranked opponents. Oregon struggled against Arizona St., but took advantage of 7 Sun Devil turnovers to win by 11, despite being outgained by almost 200 yards. The schedule heats up this week, with the biggest conference game of the year set for Saturday night.
Pac-10 week 5 picks - UCLA over Washington St., USC over Washington, Oregon St. over Arizona St., Stanford over Oregon
Week 5 outlook - UCLA gets the worst team in the Pac-10 this week and should destroy Wazzu in LA. It should be a good opportunity for Kevin Prince to work on his passing skills in an actual game, because those skills have not been good thus far. UCLA wins by a lot. USC should be able to beat Washington pretty easily, but Locker and the Huskies took the Trojans down last year, and USC cannot sleep on this UW team. Arizona St. and Oregon St. should play a fantastic game Saturday evening. Arizona St. has actually been pretty good in their two losses. They gained nearly 600 yards against Oregon, but turned the ball over 7 times. They only lost to Wisconsin by one point, but had an extra point blocked and ended the first half with a kickoff return stopped at the one-yard line. ASU could be 4-0 without the miscues and bad luck, but Oregon St. is battle tested as well. The Rodgers brothers are just waiting to get loose, and I think this is the week they do it if James is able to play. The game is in Corvallis, and the Beavers are desperate for the win, and I think they get it done against ASU. The Pac-10 game of the year is Saturday night between Stanford and Oregon. Oregon has had the best offense in the country so far, scoring seemingly at will against their first four opponents. Stanford is not their first four opponents. The Cardinal will do everything in their power to keep that Duck offense off the field, and will control time of possession with a power running game. Oregon will have to score just about every time they have the football, because they won't have it much. this is a great matchup to watch because of the contrast in style. Stanford is a hard-hitting, physically intimidating team who plays with a mean streak. Oregon is a team that is driven by speed and misdirection, but the kids from Stanford are smart and well-coached. They swarm to the ball, and put your face in the dirt on the tackle. If Oregon as a team is soft at all, Stanford will beat them. I believe that this game comes down to the end, but I think the power of Stanford beats the speed of Oregon. If Oregon wins this game, however, I think the path to the National Championship Game is clear.
SEC -
No conference had more to talk about after week 4 than the SEC. There were a few big games within the league, and a few more this week. For starters, let me just say welcome back to the national title conversation Florida Gators. They have found their running quarterback in Trey Burton. The team's offense is reminiscent of Tim Tebow's freshman year in which Chris Leak was the regular qb, but Tebow was the guy they would call on at the goal line to score touchdowns. Trey Burton scored 6 touchdowns against Kentucky on Saturday. This team had the defense to be champs, but now their offense is catching up. Florida is now the clear frontrunner in the SEC East. Tennessee is not the quite ready for the top half of the division after blowing a 16-point lead against UAB before winning in double overtime. Kentucky was looking good until playing Florida. South Carolina may be the best Gamecock team Spurrier has had, but they still don't measure up to Florida. They played well against Auburn for the first 3 quarters, but the decision to pull Stephen Garcia in that game may be the biggest coaching mistake Spurrier has made in years. Auburn and LSU scored huge wins for their seasons, but both continued to show cracks. Auburn cannot continue to fall behind and comeback. That sort of play will not work against LSU or Bama. LSU has to find a passing game. Jordan Jefferson might not be the best qb on the roster if he cant throw for 100 yards in a game. 419 passing yards through 4 games isn't gonna cut it against Bama who can stack the line of scrimmage and shut down the run. It may be time for a switch to Jarrett Lee. Alabama survived a real scare from Arkansas last Saturday afternoon, as they trailed 20-7 before scoring the game's final 17 points. Ryan Mallett was fantastic early, but two late interceptions were the undoing of the Hogs in the biggest game on their schedule. Bama's schedule doesn't get any easier this week with Florida calling on Saturday.
SEC Week 5 picks - Auburn over UL Monroe, Vanderbilt over UConn, Kentucky over Ole Miss, Mississippi St. over Alcorn St., LSU over Tennessee, Georgia over Colorado, Florida over Alabama
Week 5 outlook - Auburn and Miss. St. should win easily this week. Auburn needs a break from the brutal schedule they've played so far and gets it. Tennessee shouldn't be too much trouble for LSU, but if they can stop the run, they could have a chance. Vanderbilt will make Cody Endres's first start one to forget, and the Commodores will pull the minor upset. The return of AJ Green will be the biggest factor in a Georgia win over Colorado. Then, in the game of the week, Florida will pull off the shocker in Tuscaloosa. Florida is certainly a better team than Arkansas, even if they don't have Ryan Mallett. They have an elite defense, and they were destroying people when their offense wasn't clicking. Mike Pouncey has fixed his snapping issues, and the addition of Trey Burton in the running game is just the x-factor the Gators need to keep Alabama guessing. Greg McElroy finally loses a game as a starter, and Florida jumps into the top 3 in the polls with a win.
Best of the Rest - With their win over Oregon State, the path to an undefeated showdown with Nevada is clearly in place, and the Broncos need to beat a ranked Wolf Pack team. Fresno State and Utah State have taken steps backward with losses this past weekend, and Boise needs a big win somewhere on their schedule to stay ahead of TCU in the polls. The Mountain West is stronger than the WAC, with SDSU, Air Force, and Utah all playing impressive football so far. As long as Bernard Pierce is ok, the Temple Owls are still the MAC favorite despite a loss to Penn St. CMU looks like the best other MAC team with Toledo also playing well. Notre Dame appears to be on the Hawaii Bowl plan again in Brian Kelly's first season as coach after a 1-3 start. 7-5 appears to be a best-case scenario at this point for the Irish.
Other Week 5 picks - BYU over Utah St., Temple over Army, TCU over Colorado St., Ohio over Eastern Michigan, Miami OH over Kent St., Air Force over Navy, Western Michigan over Idaho, Bowling Green over Buffalo, Central Michigan over Ball St., UTEP over New Mexico, Northern Illinois over Akron, Tulsa over Memphis, SMU over Rice, Toledo over Wyoming, Boise St. over New Mexico St., Southern Miss over Marshall, Nevada over UNLV, Hawaii over Louisiana Tech
Conference Power Rankings
1. SEC - Still cream of the crop
2. Pac-10 - Big wins by Stanford and UCLA keep them at no. 2
3. Big Ten - Hard to lose ground when you don't play anyone
4. Big 12 - Top 3 all struggled, keeping them below Big Ten
5. ACC - NC St. gives league hope beyond early favorites
6. Mountain West - Top 4 in MWC can compete with a couple of power conferences
7. WAC - Boise and Nevada carry the flag, and both are better than all Big East teams
8. Big East - Still the laughingstock of the AQ conferences
9. C-USA - Southern Miss and UTEP keep winning, and SMU put up solid fight vs. TCU
10. MAC - Not a lot of positives outside of Temple
11. Sun Belt - Still no explanation
National Top 25
1. Alabama (prev. 1)
2. Ohio St. (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. TCU (4)
5. Boise St. (6)
6. Florida (8)
7. Stanford (9)
8. Nebraska (5)
9. Oklahoma (7)
10. Arizona (11)
11. Auburn (12)
12. LSU (14)
13. Iowa (16)
14. Utah (17)
15. Wisconsin (15)
16. Michigan (19)
17. Michigan St. (21)
18. Miami FL (22)
19. South Carolina (13)
20. Arkansas (18)
21. Texas (10)
22. Nevada (23)
23. North Carolina St. (UNR)
24. USC (UNR)
25. Texas A&M (24)
Dropped from Rankings - West Virginia (20) and Northwestern (25)
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
What weve Learned about College Football: Week 3
Another week is in the books in what is shaping up to be a fantastic college football season. The Michigan State Spartans announced to the world that they were willing to take risks, and it paid off with a controversial overtime victory over a disappointed 1-2 Notre Dame team. Unfortunately, the drama was too much for head coach Mark Dantonio, who was hospitalized with a heart attack shortly after the deciding play. Michigan and early-season Heisman media-darling Denard Robinson survived yet another FCS threat, by defeating UMass 42-37. The FCS refuses to lay down for the big time FBS programs, and it is throwing off the balance of power amongst the top teams. Oregon put on another offensive show, with LaMichael James racking up over 200 yards on the ground. Clemson and Auburn squared off in a slugfest that went to the SEC tigers in OT, and Arizona got off to fast start against the no. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes, and held off a late rally to get the win. The national landscape is starting to take shape, and here are the things that we learned from week 3:
ACC -
The ACC is still up for grabs at this point in the season. The preseason favorites all faltered early, but many have rebounded. North Carolina has opened the season 0-2, but finally have some answers about when at least a couple of their suspended players can return. Hopefully as the punishments become final, the Tar Heels will be able to focus and play good football. Butch Davis's team has a lot of talent, but has already lost a conference game, and has to do some damage to stay relevant. Virginia Tech is back to winning football games with a sloppy, but decisive victory over East Carolina in week 3. Another win over Boston College this week would put them back in control of their season. Georgia Tech defeated a depleted UNC team to get a jump start at 1-0 within the coastal division. The coastal division race will be intense, with 3 teams looking like legitimate contenders to win the division in Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, while North Carolina fights to keep hope alive. The Atlantic division is equally wide open. Clemson took a hit in losing to Auburn, but it's not a conference game. Wake Forest made it clear that they will not be a contender by losing to Stanford 68-24. It demonstrated that their shootout with Duke was more a product of bad defense than good offense. The Atlantic will be a four team race, and could even be 5 if Maryland can rebound from their loss to West Virginia. Florida St. is still considered the frontrunner, but Clemson, NC State, and Boston College have all played well in the non-conference schedule. Boston College could make a huge statement with a win over Virginia Tech in week 4.
ACC Week 4 picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech over NC State, Virginia Tech over Boston College, Maryland over Florida International, Virginia over VMI, Florida St. over Wake Forest, Duke over Army, North Carolina over Rutgers
Week 4 outlook - Pittsburgh is no Ohio St., and Miami will be playing angry ofter losing their marquee game of the season to the Buckeyes, and then having two weeks to prepare for the Panthers. Tino Sunseri is not going to run like Terelle Pryor, and Dion Lewis is only as effective as the line in front of him, which has not been very good. He averages less than 3 yards a carry and 55 yards a game through the first two games. Jacory Harris and the Canes win by 2 scores. NC State has been solid, but that triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets is hard to slow down. The Jackets protect their homefield and beat the Wolfpack. Va. Tech is in a must win situation against a Boston College team that hasn't really played anyone yet. The Hokies will play well, and Tyrod Taylor will have a great game and carry the Hokies to another victory. Maryland should beat FIU, but the Panthers gave Texas A&M fits a week ago before allowing the Aggies to overcome a 14-point fourth quarter deficit. Maryland is not as good as the Aggies. Look for a closer game than expected. Virginia had better beat VMI, and I would be surprised if the porous Wake Forest defense gave up less than 50 to the Seminoles. Duke should have their hands full with Army, but they have to win the winnable games on their schedule. I believe the 0-2 Tar Heels pull of a minor upset over Rutgers. Schiano is a great coach who will no doubt have his Scarlet Knights ready to play, but Carolina has lost close to two very good teams despite all of the ineligible players. I think they get over the hump this week and take down Rutgers behind another strong passing day from T.J. Yates.
Big East -
The Big East proved yet again that they don't belong in the BCS games, as upstart UConn got beat by the Temple Owls. Defending conference champion Cincinnati looked terrible in their loss to NC State, and Louisville failed to knock off Oregon State at home in a great upset opportunity. Syracuse defeated Maine, but who cares, and West Virginia continued to be the only Big East school worth talking about for now, picking up a 2 touchdown win over the Terps of Maryland. Rutgers is still unbeaten, but also untested.
Big East week picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, UConn over Buffalo, Syracuse over Colgate, North Carolina over Rutgers, Oklahoma over Cincinnati, South Florida over Western Kentucky, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The Big East has several chances this week to regain some credibility with marquee games for several teams. The problem is that they have to win those games to make a statement. Miami should easily beat Pitt, Rutgers will have a hard time holding off a proud 0-2 North Carolina team that can't afford to be 0-3, Cincy will be overmatched in every way against Oklahoma, and West Virginia will need to be creative with Noel Devine to fool a very good LSU defense. I smell an 0 for 4 week in the big games. Syracuse follows up Maine on the schedule with Colgate, clearly an effort to pad early season win totals. UConn and South Florida also must win to keep from embarrassing the league.
Big 12 -
Last week started to separate the boys from the men in the Big 12. Oklahoma survived another scare from a lower conference foe, but Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray have been very good so far, and the Big 12 is really devoid of spread option running attacks like Air Force threw at them. Texas continued to rely on a strong defense to compensate for the up and down play of Garret Gilbert. The win over Texas Tech gives them a leg up in the division however. Tech and Baylor recieved rude wake up calls. Baylor was destroyed by national title hopeful TCU, and Texas Tech was held to just 14 points after putting up 35 and 52 in their first 2 games. Texas A&M was nearly embarrassed at the hands of Florida International, but rallied for 21 fourth quarter points in a 7 point win. Oklahoma State finally blew someone away as Kendall Hunter was superb again in a thrashing of Tulsa. Texas and Oklahoma have clearly separated themselves as the best overall teams in the south, and the red river shootout will likely again decide the division winner. In the North division, Nebraska has clearly established itself as the best team. Missouri and Kansas State are the best challengers to Nebraska, but both have flaws. Kansas State has won on guts and great running by Daniel Thomas. Defense and passing have not been strengths. Missouri has had to scrape to get by Illinois and San Diego State, both teams that would likely get rolled by Big Red. Taylor Martinez was fantastic last Saturday on the road at Washington, showing that the freshman quarterback has the tools to win in big games right now.
Big 12 Week 4 picks - Kansas State over Central Florida, Missouri over Miami OH, Texas over UCLA, Nebraska over South Dakota St., Oklahoma over Cincinnati, Iowa St. over Northern Iowa, Kansas over New Mexico St., Baylor over Rice
Week 4 outlook - Only a couple games really are worth mentioning this week with a few snoozers on the slate. Daniel Thomas should be plenty to get the Wildcats past the UCF Knights. Mizzou, Nebraska, and Iowa St. should win easily. Kansas is never a sure thing, but New Mexico St. will have a very hard time going into Lawrence and beating the Jayhawks. Oklahoma should easily dispatch of Cincy. Baylor at Rice should be an interesting game this week. The Bears were embarrassed against TCU last week, and quarterback Robert Griffin has made it clear that Baylor isn't laying down after that loss. Rice, however, has a very good running back in Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, who can hurt you running the ball or catching it out of the backfield. Baylor will have to bottle up McGuffie to beat the 1-2 Owls. The most interesting game of the week is between Texas and UCLA. The Longhorns are the clear favorites, but don't be so quick to predict a rout for the boys from Austin. The Longhorns will have to run the ball often and focus on stopping UCLA's running game led by dynamic back Jonathan Franklin. Kevin Prince and the UCLA passing attack has been terrible, but most efforts to throw against UCLA have been futile. If Texas insists on letting Garret Gilbert throw to move the ball in this game, the Bruins will hang around. This could be dangerously close to a huge upset, but I think Mack Brown is too smart to let that happen. Texas will win in a closer game than expected.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten continues to gain steam in many ways. Six Big Ten teams remain undefeated. The league has suffered only 6 losses as a whole, and only one of those was to a non-BCS school. The other five teams to win over the Big Ten are Notre Dame, Arizona, Alabama, USC, and Missouri. Those are hardly pushover opponents. The league has scored victories over Notre Dame twice, Miami FL, UConn, Iowa St., Vanderbilt, Arizona St., Rice, Western Michigan, and UNLV. Ohio State is a true national title contender, while Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are all unbeaten with hopes of strong bowl berths. Iowa and Penn State also belong in the discussion at 0-0 in conference play. The league looks as strong as it's been in years, but things won't really separate until they start playing each other.
Big Ten Week 4 picks - Northwestern over Central Michigan, Michigan State over Northern Colorado, Michigan over Bowling Green, Wisconsin over Austin Peay, Purdue over Toledo, Iowa over Ball State, Ohio St. over Eastern Michigan, Indiana over Akron, Northern Illinois over Minnesota, Penn St. over Temple
Week 4 outlook - Most of the top teams in the league have easy games this week. Northwestern may have issues with the Chippewas, but should prevail. Michigan will likely be better prepared this week after a near disaster against UMass. MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa will all win easily, and Indiana should have little trouble with Akron if Ben Chappell continues his strong play at qb. Purdue should beat Toledo, but nothing is certain yet with the Boilers. Northern Illinois is always solid with head coach Jerry Kill in charge, and Minnesota's poor early play leads me to believe the Huskies will find their way to the upset. Minnesota can run the ball, and Adam Weber has enough experience to be a strong leader, but rarely have those things shown on the field thus far. Penn State may be in for a brawl with in-state rival Temple. Temple doesn't often put up much of a fight, but this isn't your garden variety Owls team. Bernard Pierce is running with authority, and the defense is playing with a fire in the 3-0 start Temple is off to. The Nittany Lions would be wise to lean on Evan Royster in this game rather than trust freshman Robert Bolden to take care of business against the scrappy Owls. If they do that, a 2-3 touchdown win is possible. If not, Temple might put a scare into some PSU fans.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 went into week three with a real chance to steal some upsets and make some major headlines, and they did just that. Arizona upended the Iowa Hawkeyes. UCLA got their first victory of the year by stomping the ranked Houston Cougars and knocking out thier first and second-string qbs in the process. Oregon State also picked up an impressive victory over Louisville. Unfortunately, the Pac-10 took some losses as well. WSU managed to lose to SMU. Washington got steamrolled in an upset bid at home against Nebraska and Taylor Martinez. Arizona St. lost a heartbreaker against Wisconsin when they had an extra point blocked in the second half of the one-point defeat. Making the loss tougher to swallow, on the final play of the first half, the Sun Devils broke a long kick return that was stopped one yard shy of a touchdown. Cal also hurt the credibility of the Pac-10 with a bad loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack. Stanford and Oregon continued to be the lead horses in the league with statement victories in easy games, and USC beat a sorry Minnesota team in Minneapolis. This season in the Pac-10 should get fun as conference games begin.
Pac-10 Week 4 picks - USC over Washington State, Boise State over Oregon State, Oregon over Arizona State, Arizona over California, Texas over UCLA, Notre Dame over Stanford
Week 4 outlook - This could be a rough week in the Pac-10 with some difficult games on tap outside of league play. USC should win easily to go to 4-0. Oregon is just too fast for Arizona St. to keep up with, and the contrast in style from Wisconsin to Oregon in back-to-back games will be too much for the Sun Devils to handle. Oregon State will be in a great tussle with Boise State. Ryan Katz has shown that he has a big arm, and the Rodgers brothers are a dynamic that no other offense can boast, but it will be up to the Beaver defense to keep Kellen Moore from doing the things he does. He is smart with the ball and knows how to win. I feel like the Broncos will be more than ready for this game, as it appears to be the biggest hurdle between them and a BCS bowl game. Texas will recieve a stiff challenge from UCLA, but will survive. Arizona will not win easily against the Cal Golden Bears. They should be victorious, but they lack the running qb that gave Cal fits last week against Nevada. Nick Foles is no Colin Kaepernick, but Foles hadn't thrown consecutive incompletions this season until almost halfway through the third game of the year. Foles accurate arm will guide Arizona to another tough victory. Stanford and Notre Dame will be a much better game than most expect. The crowd in South Bend will be itching for an Irish win, and I think the team will give it to them. Andrew Luck and The Cardinal have been sensational thus far, but Notre Dame is a more balanced offensive football team than Stanford has seen so far. The combination of Dayne Crist's passing and Armando Allen's rushing will be tough to stop, and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a matchup nightmare. Notre Dame will do a good job in coverage and contain Andrew Luck's aerial numbers, and will pull off a narrow upset at home.
SEC -
The SEC continues to be simply the strongest league in the country. Only a couple Southeastern Conference teams have little to no shot at being ranked at some point this season. Alabama continues to look like a champion again. Auburn continues to win close games. LSU continues to play stellar defense to keep pressure off of Jordan Jefferson to win games. Florida continues to win easily despite lackluster execution on offense. Ryan Mallett continues to keep opposing secondaries guessing, and the Razorbacks managed to win a road game. The South Carolina victory tour rolled through Furman with a 19-point win and Marcus Lattimore continued to punish opposing tacklers with his physical running. Even Kentucky has continued to impress under new coach Joker Phillips, and they're off to a 3-0 start. Lowly Vanderbilt also scored a victory over the struggling Ole Miss Rebels. All told, the SEC has only lost 3 non-league games, and two of those were to undefeated Northwestern and undefeated Oregon. Only Ole Miss's loss to Jacksonville State to open the season stands out as an unexpected or bad loss by an SEC team. The meat of the SEC schedule is approaching fast, and things are about to get fun in this conference.
SEC Week 4 picks - Tennessee over UAB, Alabama over Arkansas, Florida over Kentucky, Georgia over Mississippi St., Fresno St. over Ole Miss, South Carolina over Auburn, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The SEC is where all of the action is this weekend. Almost every game this week is a big one and should be fun to watch. Tennessee should get back on track against UAB. Derek Dooley is a good coach and will have the Vols fired up for the must-win game, and the Blazers are not Florida or Oregon. Masoli and Ole Miss will continue to look lost against a pretty good Fresno St. team from the WAC, and will suffer another loss. LSU should be able to knock off the WVU Mountaineers as long as they focus on shutting down Noel Devine and make someone else beat them. Jordan Jefferson needs to avoid turnovers, but LSU should be able to win this game. Florida needs to clean up their offensive play, because it will eventually catch up with them if they don't. Kentucky will be itching for a big win over the Gators. They haven't defeated Florida or Tennessee in years, and after their 3-0 start the Wildcats will be playing with confidence going forward. If Florida isn't crisp on offense, this one could be a squeaker. Watch out for Kentucky this season. South Carolina has played exceptional football thus far, and will have to do a good job containing the run-pass dual threat of Cameron Newton to continue that great play. I like the Gamecocks this week, but Auburn has been scrappy. I sense a slugfest here, and Auburn just might not be up to the task after the physical game with Clemson last week. I like Lattimore to be just a little more physical than the Tiger defense, and the Gamecocks to win by a touchdown. No. 1 Alabama takes on no. 10 Arkansas in the game of the week this Saturday. Mallett would love to come in and throw for 300 yards and keep the inexperienced Tide secondary guessing, but it just won't happen. Alabama is extremely skilled, and extremely well coached, and that inexperienced defense will be ready for what Arkansas will try to do to them. I expect the Tide to hold Mallett to under 200 yards passing and barely over 50% of his passes completed. The running game of Alabama will be too much to stand up to for the Hogs defense, and McElroy simply does not turn the ball over. Alabama isn't out talking about being "Goliath" like Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino is. They're simply quietly getting ready to systematically take the Razorbacks apart. I would be surprised if Alabama does not win by at least 10 points. The real game to watch this week in the SEC is between Georgia and Mississippi State. I realize that both teams are 1-2 overall and 0-2 in the SEC, but the result of that is desperation. Georgia had a real chance to upset Arkansas a week ago, and the Bulldogs had a chance to take out Auburn 2 weeks ago. Both of these teams need this win, and both will play like it. Expect a lot of hard hits, smashmouth football, and a lot of emotion on both sides. Georgia needs to win this game to feel like they have an outside shot at the SEC crown with star wide receiver AJ Green returning next week. Mississippi St. needs this win to avoid an 0-3 conference start in head coach Dan Mullen's first year in charge of the program. The desperation will be palpable, and this game will come down to the final plays, and I see the Bulldogs of UGa coming out on top in an instant classic.
Best of the Rest -
Boise and TCU continue to do what you expect them to and beat up on lesser competition. Boise destroyed Wyoming on the road in Laramie, and still hasn't played at home on the smurf turf yet. TCU dismantled what is supposed to be a dangerous Big 12 team in Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin. A five touchdown win in that game should demonstrate just how good TCU can be. The most exciting thing to take from last week's games for these two teams is the play of their past and future opponents, not their own victories. For Boise, Virginia Tech topped a 2-0 ECU team, Oregon State beat Louisville, and in the biggest game, Nevada wiped the floor with California. The strong play of Nevada and Fresno State have given Boise two more credible opponents on the schedule. That could be enough to help them in the computers and cause them to need a little less help to get to the title game. TCU also has seen some strong play from its Mountain West bretheren. Utah continues to be a very good football team, and despite losing, Air Force was very impressive in pushing Oklahoma to the limit in Norman. San Diego State also impressed in a close loss to Missouri. Apart from the Mountain West and WAC, the biggest story in smaller conferences was the devastation by injury of the Houston Cougars' season. Both Case Keenum (torn ACL), and his back-up (broken collarbone) were knocked out for the season in a bad loss to UCLA last Saturday night. As a result, Conference USA is wide open for the taking if anyone can step up and take it. Southern Miss and East Carolina are always respectable teams, and seem to be the next in line to contend for the crown. The big story in the MAC however is the impressive start for Al Golden's Temple Owls. Coach Golden has put together a remarkable turnaround in Philadelphia, as the Owls are now 12-1 in their last 13 regular season games, when just a few short years ago they were being blown out by mediocre MAC schools. They've done it the right way, with a bruising defense and power running game. Bernard Pierce may be the best runner in the MAC. Penn St. will be a brutal test for the Owls, but don't expect them to play scared.
Other week 4 picks - Boise St. over Oregon St., TCU over SMU, Air Force over Wyoming, Penn St. over Temple, Troy over Arkansas St., Nevada over BYU, Marshall over Ohio, Florida Atlantic over North Texas, Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech, San Diego St. over Utah St., Utah over San Jose St., UTEP over Memphis, UNLV over New Mexico, Hawaii over Colorado State
Week 4 outlook - Kellen Moore will carry Boise State to victory over a tough Oregon State team. Pessuring Ryan Katz without the run defense against Jaquizz Rodgers suffereing for it will be key for a Bronco victory, and I think the defense is up for the challenge. If Boise wins here, very little stands between the Broncos and yet another BCS berth, possibly even in the title game with a little help. TCU has a fairly easy game this week and should roll SMU by at least 3 touchdowns, despite June Jones' pass-heavy offense. Nevada should beat a surprisingly weak BYU team that will have as much trouble stopping Kaepernick as it did stopping Air Force's option-read offense. Utah and Hawaii should win easily as well. San Diego State and Utah State should be an entertaining game, but I see the Aztecs coming out on top.
Conference Power rankings
1. SEC - easily the best
2. Pac-10 - Very good top half of the league beats out a down Big 12 and decent Big Ten
3. Big Ten - Not behind the Pac-10 by that much
4. Big 12 - Little to talk about beyond Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma
5. ACC - Not one team that could wind up in the national championship game play here
6. MWC - TCU and Utah stand out as BCS contenders, and Air Force looks strong as well
7. WAC - Boise is the class of the league, but Nevada and Fresno are solid as well
8. Big East - Only West Virginia looks like they would definitely crack the top 3 in WAC or MWC
9. Conference USA - Houston's qb situation drops C-USA down a couple notches
10. MAC - Even in a down year it's not the Sun Belt
11. Sun Belt - No explanation needed
MY TOP 25 -
1. Alabama ( prev. no.1)
2. Ohio St. (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. TCU (4)
5. Nebraska (7)
6. Boise State (8)
7. Oklahoma (5)
8. Florida (10)
9. Stanford (11)
10. Texas (9)
11. Arizona (13)
12. Auburn (12)
13. South Carolina (15)
14. LSU (19)
15. Wisconsin (14)
16. Iowa (6)
17. Utah (18)
18. Arkansas (22)
19. Michigan (17)
20. West Virginia (23)
21. Michigan State (24)
22. Miami (20)
23. Nevada (UNR)
24. Texas A&M (21)
25. Northwestern (UNR)
Dropped from rankings - California (16), Texas Tech (25)
ACC -
The ACC is still up for grabs at this point in the season. The preseason favorites all faltered early, but many have rebounded. North Carolina has opened the season 0-2, but finally have some answers about when at least a couple of their suspended players can return. Hopefully as the punishments become final, the Tar Heels will be able to focus and play good football. Butch Davis's team has a lot of talent, but has already lost a conference game, and has to do some damage to stay relevant. Virginia Tech is back to winning football games with a sloppy, but decisive victory over East Carolina in week 3. Another win over Boston College this week would put them back in control of their season. Georgia Tech defeated a depleted UNC team to get a jump start at 1-0 within the coastal division. The coastal division race will be intense, with 3 teams looking like legitimate contenders to win the division in Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, while North Carolina fights to keep hope alive. The Atlantic division is equally wide open. Clemson took a hit in losing to Auburn, but it's not a conference game. Wake Forest made it clear that they will not be a contender by losing to Stanford 68-24. It demonstrated that their shootout with Duke was more a product of bad defense than good offense. The Atlantic will be a four team race, and could even be 5 if Maryland can rebound from their loss to West Virginia. Florida St. is still considered the frontrunner, but Clemson, NC State, and Boston College have all played well in the non-conference schedule. Boston College could make a huge statement with a win over Virginia Tech in week 4.
ACC Week 4 picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech over NC State, Virginia Tech over Boston College, Maryland over Florida International, Virginia over VMI, Florida St. over Wake Forest, Duke over Army, North Carolina over Rutgers
Week 4 outlook - Pittsburgh is no Ohio St., and Miami will be playing angry ofter losing their marquee game of the season to the Buckeyes, and then having two weeks to prepare for the Panthers. Tino Sunseri is not going to run like Terelle Pryor, and Dion Lewis is only as effective as the line in front of him, which has not been very good. He averages less than 3 yards a carry and 55 yards a game through the first two games. Jacory Harris and the Canes win by 2 scores. NC State has been solid, but that triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets is hard to slow down. The Jackets protect their homefield and beat the Wolfpack. Va. Tech is in a must win situation against a Boston College team that hasn't really played anyone yet. The Hokies will play well, and Tyrod Taylor will have a great game and carry the Hokies to another victory. Maryland should beat FIU, but the Panthers gave Texas A&M fits a week ago before allowing the Aggies to overcome a 14-point fourth quarter deficit. Maryland is not as good as the Aggies. Look for a closer game than expected. Virginia had better beat VMI, and I would be surprised if the porous Wake Forest defense gave up less than 50 to the Seminoles. Duke should have their hands full with Army, but they have to win the winnable games on their schedule. I believe the 0-2 Tar Heels pull of a minor upset over Rutgers. Schiano is a great coach who will no doubt have his Scarlet Knights ready to play, but Carolina has lost close to two very good teams despite all of the ineligible players. I think they get over the hump this week and take down Rutgers behind another strong passing day from T.J. Yates.
Big East -
The Big East proved yet again that they don't belong in the BCS games, as upstart UConn got beat by the Temple Owls. Defending conference champion Cincinnati looked terrible in their loss to NC State, and Louisville failed to knock off Oregon State at home in a great upset opportunity. Syracuse defeated Maine, but who cares, and West Virginia continued to be the only Big East school worth talking about for now, picking up a 2 touchdown win over the Terps of Maryland. Rutgers is still unbeaten, but also untested.
Big East week picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, UConn over Buffalo, Syracuse over Colgate, North Carolina over Rutgers, Oklahoma over Cincinnati, South Florida over Western Kentucky, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The Big East has several chances this week to regain some credibility with marquee games for several teams. The problem is that they have to win those games to make a statement. Miami should easily beat Pitt, Rutgers will have a hard time holding off a proud 0-2 North Carolina team that can't afford to be 0-3, Cincy will be overmatched in every way against Oklahoma, and West Virginia will need to be creative with Noel Devine to fool a very good LSU defense. I smell an 0 for 4 week in the big games. Syracuse follows up Maine on the schedule with Colgate, clearly an effort to pad early season win totals. UConn and South Florida also must win to keep from embarrassing the league.
Big 12 -
Last week started to separate the boys from the men in the Big 12. Oklahoma survived another scare from a lower conference foe, but Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray have been very good so far, and the Big 12 is really devoid of spread option running attacks like Air Force threw at them. Texas continued to rely on a strong defense to compensate for the up and down play of Garret Gilbert. The win over Texas Tech gives them a leg up in the division however. Tech and Baylor recieved rude wake up calls. Baylor was destroyed by national title hopeful TCU, and Texas Tech was held to just 14 points after putting up 35 and 52 in their first 2 games. Texas A&M was nearly embarrassed at the hands of Florida International, but rallied for 21 fourth quarter points in a 7 point win. Oklahoma State finally blew someone away as Kendall Hunter was superb again in a thrashing of Tulsa. Texas and Oklahoma have clearly separated themselves as the best overall teams in the south, and the red river shootout will likely again decide the division winner. In the North division, Nebraska has clearly established itself as the best team. Missouri and Kansas State are the best challengers to Nebraska, but both have flaws. Kansas State has won on guts and great running by Daniel Thomas. Defense and passing have not been strengths. Missouri has had to scrape to get by Illinois and San Diego State, both teams that would likely get rolled by Big Red. Taylor Martinez was fantastic last Saturday on the road at Washington, showing that the freshman quarterback has the tools to win in big games right now.
Big 12 Week 4 picks - Kansas State over Central Florida, Missouri over Miami OH, Texas over UCLA, Nebraska over South Dakota St., Oklahoma over Cincinnati, Iowa St. over Northern Iowa, Kansas over New Mexico St., Baylor over Rice
Week 4 outlook - Only a couple games really are worth mentioning this week with a few snoozers on the slate. Daniel Thomas should be plenty to get the Wildcats past the UCF Knights. Mizzou, Nebraska, and Iowa St. should win easily. Kansas is never a sure thing, but New Mexico St. will have a very hard time going into Lawrence and beating the Jayhawks. Oklahoma should easily dispatch of Cincy. Baylor at Rice should be an interesting game this week. The Bears were embarrassed against TCU last week, and quarterback Robert Griffin has made it clear that Baylor isn't laying down after that loss. Rice, however, has a very good running back in Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, who can hurt you running the ball or catching it out of the backfield. Baylor will have to bottle up McGuffie to beat the 1-2 Owls. The most interesting game of the week is between Texas and UCLA. The Longhorns are the clear favorites, but don't be so quick to predict a rout for the boys from Austin. The Longhorns will have to run the ball often and focus on stopping UCLA's running game led by dynamic back Jonathan Franklin. Kevin Prince and the UCLA passing attack has been terrible, but most efforts to throw against UCLA have been futile. If Texas insists on letting Garret Gilbert throw to move the ball in this game, the Bruins will hang around. This could be dangerously close to a huge upset, but I think Mack Brown is too smart to let that happen. Texas will win in a closer game than expected.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten continues to gain steam in many ways. Six Big Ten teams remain undefeated. The league has suffered only 6 losses as a whole, and only one of those was to a non-BCS school. The other five teams to win over the Big Ten are Notre Dame, Arizona, Alabama, USC, and Missouri. Those are hardly pushover opponents. The league has scored victories over Notre Dame twice, Miami FL, UConn, Iowa St., Vanderbilt, Arizona St., Rice, Western Michigan, and UNLV. Ohio State is a true national title contender, while Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are all unbeaten with hopes of strong bowl berths. Iowa and Penn State also belong in the discussion at 0-0 in conference play. The league looks as strong as it's been in years, but things won't really separate until they start playing each other.
Big Ten Week 4 picks - Northwestern over Central Michigan, Michigan State over Northern Colorado, Michigan over Bowling Green, Wisconsin over Austin Peay, Purdue over Toledo, Iowa over Ball State, Ohio St. over Eastern Michigan, Indiana over Akron, Northern Illinois over Minnesota, Penn St. over Temple
Week 4 outlook - Most of the top teams in the league have easy games this week. Northwestern may have issues with the Chippewas, but should prevail. Michigan will likely be better prepared this week after a near disaster against UMass. MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa will all win easily, and Indiana should have little trouble with Akron if Ben Chappell continues his strong play at qb. Purdue should beat Toledo, but nothing is certain yet with the Boilers. Northern Illinois is always solid with head coach Jerry Kill in charge, and Minnesota's poor early play leads me to believe the Huskies will find their way to the upset. Minnesota can run the ball, and Adam Weber has enough experience to be a strong leader, but rarely have those things shown on the field thus far. Penn State may be in for a brawl with in-state rival Temple. Temple doesn't often put up much of a fight, but this isn't your garden variety Owls team. Bernard Pierce is running with authority, and the defense is playing with a fire in the 3-0 start Temple is off to. The Nittany Lions would be wise to lean on Evan Royster in this game rather than trust freshman Robert Bolden to take care of business against the scrappy Owls. If they do that, a 2-3 touchdown win is possible. If not, Temple might put a scare into some PSU fans.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 went into week three with a real chance to steal some upsets and make some major headlines, and they did just that. Arizona upended the Iowa Hawkeyes. UCLA got their first victory of the year by stomping the ranked Houston Cougars and knocking out thier first and second-string qbs in the process. Oregon State also picked up an impressive victory over Louisville. Unfortunately, the Pac-10 took some losses as well. WSU managed to lose to SMU. Washington got steamrolled in an upset bid at home against Nebraska and Taylor Martinez. Arizona St. lost a heartbreaker against Wisconsin when they had an extra point blocked in the second half of the one-point defeat. Making the loss tougher to swallow, on the final play of the first half, the Sun Devils broke a long kick return that was stopped one yard shy of a touchdown. Cal also hurt the credibility of the Pac-10 with a bad loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack. Stanford and Oregon continued to be the lead horses in the league with statement victories in easy games, and USC beat a sorry Minnesota team in Minneapolis. This season in the Pac-10 should get fun as conference games begin.
Pac-10 Week 4 picks - USC over Washington State, Boise State over Oregon State, Oregon over Arizona State, Arizona over California, Texas over UCLA, Notre Dame over Stanford
Week 4 outlook - This could be a rough week in the Pac-10 with some difficult games on tap outside of league play. USC should win easily to go to 4-0. Oregon is just too fast for Arizona St. to keep up with, and the contrast in style from Wisconsin to Oregon in back-to-back games will be too much for the Sun Devils to handle. Oregon State will be in a great tussle with Boise State. Ryan Katz has shown that he has a big arm, and the Rodgers brothers are a dynamic that no other offense can boast, but it will be up to the Beaver defense to keep Kellen Moore from doing the things he does. He is smart with the ball and knows how to win. I feel like the Broncos will be more than ready for this game, as it appears to be the biggest hurdle between them and a BCS bowl game. Texas will recieve a stiff challenge from UCLA, but will survive. Arizona will not win easily against the Cal Golden Bears. They should be victorious, but they lack the running qb that gave Cal fits last week against Nevada. Nick Foles is no Colin Kaepernick, but Foles hadn't thrown consecutive incompletions this season until almost halfway through the third game of the year. Foles accurate arm will guide Arizona to another tough victory. Stanford and Notre Dame will be a much better game than most expect. The crowd in South Bend will be itching for an Irish win, and I think the team will give it to them. Andrew Luck and The Cardinal have been sensational thus far, but Notre Dame is a more balanced offensive football team than Stanford has seen so far. The combination of Dayne Crist's passing and Armando Allen's rushing will be tough to stop, and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a matchup nightmare. Notre Dame will do a good job in coverage and contain Andrew Luck's aerial numbers, and will pull off a narrow upset at home.
SEC -
The SEC continues to be simply the strongest league in the country. Only a couple Southeastern Conference teams have little to no shot at being ranked at some point this season. Alabama continues to look like a champion again. Auburn continues to win close games. LSU continues to play stellar defense to keep pressure off of Jordan Jefferson to win games. Florida continues to win easily despite lackluster execution on offense. Ryan Mallett continues to keep opposing secondaries guessing, and the Razorbacks managed to win a road game. The South Carolina victory tour rolled through Furman with a 19-point win and Marcus Lattimore continued to punish opposing tacklers with his physical running. Even Kentucky has continued to impress under new coach Joker Phillips, and they're off to a 3-0 start. Lowly Vanderbilt also scored a victory over the struggling Ole Miss Rebels. All told, the SEC has only lost 3 non-league games, and two of those were to undefeated Northwestern and undefeated Oregon. Only Ole Miss's loss to Jacksonville State to open the season stands out as an unexpected or bad loss by an SEC team. The meat of the SEC schedule is approaching fast, and things are about to get fun in this conference.
SEC Week 4 picks - Tennessee over UAB, Alabama over Arkansas, Florida over Kentucky, Georgia over Mississippi St., Fresno St. over Ole Miss, South Carolina over Auburn, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The SEC is where all of the action is this weekend. Almost every game this week is a big one and should be fun to watch. Tennessee should get back on track against UAB. Derek Dooley is a good coach and will have the Vols fired up for the must-win game, and the Blazers are not Florida or Oregon. Masoli and Ole Miss will continue to look lost against a pretty good Fresno St. team from the WAC, and will suffer another loss. LSU should be able to knock off the WVU Mountaineers as long as they focus on shutting down Noel Devine and make someone else beat them. Jordan Jefferson needs to avoid turnovers, but LSU should be able to win this game. Florida needs to clean up their offensive play, because it will eventually catch up with them if they don't. Kentucky will be itching for a big win over the Gators. They haven't defeated Florida or Tennessee in years, and after their 3-0 start the Wildcats will be playing with confidence going forward. If Florida isn't crisp on offense, this one could be a squeaker. Watch out for Kentucky this season. South Carolina has played exceptional football thus far, and will have to do a good job containing the run-pass dual threat of Cameron Newton to continue that great play. I like the Gamecocks this week, but Auburn has been scrappy. I sense a slugfest here, and Auburn just might not be up to the task after the physical game with Clemson last week. I like Lattimore to be just a little more physical than the Tiger defense, and the Gamecocks to win by a touchdown. No. 1 Alabama takes on no. 10 Arkansas in the game of the week this Saturday. Mallett would love to come in and throw for 300 yards and keep the inexperienced Tide secondary guessing, but it just won't happen. Alabama is extremely skilled, and extremely well coached, and that inexperienced defense will be ready for what Arkansas will try to do to them. I expect the Tide to hold Mallett to under 200 yards passing and barely over 50% of his passes completed. The running game of Alabama will be too much to stand up to for the Hogs defense, and McElroy simply does not turn the ball over. Alabama isn't out talking about being "Goliath" like Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino is. They're simply quietly getting ready to systematically take the Razorbacks apart. I would be surprised if Alabama does not win by at least 10 points. The real game to watch this week in the SEC is between Georgia and Mississippi State. I realize that both teams are 1-2 overall and 0-2 in the SEC, but the result of that is desperation. Georgia had a real chance to upset Arkansas a week ago, and the Bulldogs had a chance to take out Auburn 2 weeks ago. Both of these teams need this win, and both will play like it. Expect a lot of hard hits, smashmouth football, and a lot of emotion on both sides. Georgia needs to win this game to feel like they have an outside shot at the SEC crown with star wide receiver AJ Green returning next week. Mississippi St. needs this win to avoid an 0-3 conference start in head coach Dan Mullen's first year in charge of the program. The desperation will be palpable, and this game will come down to the final plays, and I see the Bulldogs of UGa coming out on top in an instant classic.
Best of the Rest -
Boise and TCU continue to do what you expect them to and beat up on lesser competition. Boise destroyed Wyoming on the road in Laramie, and still hasn't played at home on the smurf turf yet. TCU dismantled what is supposed to be a dangerous Big 12 team in Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin. A five touchdown win in that game should demonstrate just how good TCU can be. The most exciting thing to take from last week's games for these two teams is the play of their past and future opponents, not their own victories. For Boise, Virginia Tech topped a 2-0 ECU team, Oregon State beat Louisville, and in the biggest game, Nevada wiped the floor with California. The strong play of Nevada and Fresno State have given Boise two more credible opponents on the schedule. That could be enough to help them in the computers and cause them to need a little less help to get to the title game. TCU also has seen some strong play from its Mountain West bretheren. Utah continues to be a very good football team, and despite losing, Air Force was very impressive in pushing Oklahoma to the limit in Norman. San Diego State also impressed in a close loss to Missouri. Apart from the Mountain West and WAC, the biggest story in smaller conferences was the devastation by injury of the Houston Cougars' season. Both Case Keenum (torn ACL), and his back-up (broken collarbone) were knocked out for the season in a bad loss to UCLA last Saturday night. As a result, Conference USA is wide open for the taking if anyone can step up and take it. Southern Miss and East Carolina are always respectable teams, and seem to be the next in line to contend for the crown. The big story in the MAC however is the impressive start for Al Golden's Temple Owls. Coach Golden has put together a remarkable turnaround in Philadelphia, as the Owls are now 12-1 in their last 13 regular season games, when just a few short years ago they were being blown out by mediocre MAC schools. They've done it the right way, with a bruising defense and power running game. Bernard Pierce may be the best runner in the MAC. Penn St. will be a brutal test for the Owls, but don't expect them to play scared.
Other week 4 picks - Boise St. over Oregon St., TCU over SMU, Air Force over Wyoming, Penn St. over Temple, Troy over Arkansas St., Nevada over BYU, Marshall over Ohio, Florida Atlantic over North Texas, Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech, San Diego St. over Utah St., Utah over San Jose St., UTEP over Memphis, UNLV over New Mexico, Hawaii over Colorado State
Week 4 outlook - Kellen Moore will carry Boise State to victory over a tough Oregon State team. Pessuring Ryan Katz without the run defense against Jaquizz Rodgers suffereing for it will be key for a Bronco victory, and I think the defense is up for the challenge. If Boise wins here, very little stands between the Broncos and yet another BCS berth, possibly even in the title game with a little help. TCU has a fairly easy game this week and should roll SMU by at least 3 touchdowns, despite June Jones' pass-heavy offense. Nevada should beat a surprisingly weak BYU team that will have as much trouble stopping Kaepernick as it did stopping Air Force's option-read offense. Utah and Hawaii should win easily as well. San Diego State and Utah State should be an entertaining game, but I see the Aztecs coming out on top.
Conference Power rankings
1. SEC - easily the best
2. Pac-10 - Very good top half of the league beats out a down Big 12 and decent Big Ten
3. Big Ten - Not behind the Pac-10 by that much
4. Big 12 - Little to talk about beyond Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma
5. ACC - Not one team that could wind up in the national championship game play here
6. MWC - TCU and Utah stand out as BCS contenders, and Air Force looks strong as well
7. WAC - Boise is the class of the league, but Nevada and Fresno are solid as well
8. Big East - Only West Virginia looks like they would definitely crack the top 3 in WAC or MWC
9. Conference USA - Houston's qb situation drops C-USA down a couple notches
10. MAC - Even in a down year it's not the Sun Belt
11. Sun Belt - No explanation needed
MY TOP 25 -
1. Alabama ( prev. no.1)
2. Ohio St. (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. TCU (4)
5. Nebraska (7)
6. Boise State (8)
7. Oklahoma (5)
8. Florida (10)
9. Stanford (11)
10. Texas (9)
11. Arizona (13)
12. Auburn (12)
13. South Carolina (15)
14. LSU (19)
15. Wisconsin (14)
16. Iowa (6)
17. Utah (18)
18. Arkansas (22)
19. Michigan (17)
20. West Virginia (23)
21. Michigan State (24)
22. Miami (20)
23. Nevada (UNR)
24. Texas A&M (21)
25. Northwestern (UNR)
Dropped from rankings - California (16), Texas Tech (25)
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
What We've learned about College Football So Far: Weeks 1+2
The college football season has gotten off to a riveting start through two weeks, and for anyone who hasn't been paying attention there is a lot to catch up on. Boise St. announced their presence as national title contenders with authority, only to watch James Madison denounce that presence 6 days later in a game that Boise didn't even participate in. The ACC picked up where it left off a year ago, with all 5 of it's preseason top 25 teams going down at least once in the season's first two weeks. Defending national champion Alabama picked up right where they left off, even with last season's Heisman winner Mark Ingram sidelined. Michigan starting quarterback Denard Robinson took the college football world by storm rushing for 455 yards and throwing for another 430 in Michigan's first two games of the season, wins over Big East up-and-comer UConn, and a supposedley rejuvenated Notre Dame. And to top all that off, the lowly Championship Subdivision has scored six victories over the Bowl Subdivision already, including four victories over teams from automatic qualifier conferences. So, what do we really know after two weeks? How do we sort out who stands out and who should be taken with a grain of salt? Who knows, but each week I'll take a stab at it.
ACC -
Weeks one and two in the Atlantic Coast Conference have been forgettable at best. The conference entered the season with 5 ranked teams: Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. After two weeks, only the Hurricanes remain ranked, and even they have suffered a loss. This really is the status quo from this league over the past few seasons. The last time the ACC had a legitimate title contender was when Miami lost to Ohio State in the title game in January of '03. The returns of power programs at Miami and Florida State were greatly exaggerated. Georgia Tech couldnt defeat a Kansas team that was held to 3 points by a mediocre FCS team. To top that off, all of the promise surrounding this year's Tar Heels in Chapel Hill was wiped away by academic scandal involving all of UNC's best defensive players. Virginia Tech meanwhile, couldn't hold on for their comeback win against Boise on Labor Day, being beaten in the final minute by the Broncos, and then went out and lost to a James Madison team that, while good enough to be in the FCS playoffs at year's end, should never beat the Hokies. Va. Tech suffered from a hangover from the big loss to Boise, and the result shows it. The rest of the ACC has actually played pretty well so far this season, but it is far too early to take any of the 2-0 records seriously at this point. The conference race should be a wide open, wild ride. Miami is certainly the current favorite in the Coastal division, but don't count out the Hokies just yet. Even Michgan won 8 in a row after losing to Appalachian State and Oregon to open the 2007 season. The Atlantic division really is anyone's guess at this point, but there is a lot of football to help sort that out.
ACC week 3 picks - Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, West Virginia over Maryland, Cincinnati over North Carolina St., Florida St. Over BYU, Alabama over Duke, Auburn over Clemson, and Stanford over Wake Forest.
Week 3 outlook - The ACC will have a hard time picking up more than 3 wins this week, and one of those is a conference game. NC State has a realistic chance of beating Cincy, but any other ACC win would be a huge upset.
Big East -
In all seriousness, why does the Big East still get an automatic bid to the BCS over the Mountain West? The Big East is clearly the worst power conference this year. Only West Virginia and Rutgers escaped the first two weeks undefeated, and WVU escaped by the skin of their teeth against Marshall. The league is absolutely struggling to stay relevant. Schiano has done a nice job keeping Rutgers solid, but Louisville is a shell of it's former self. West Virginia is not nearly as dominant as it was under RichRod. Cincinnati is slipping without Brian Kelly, Tony Pike, and Mardy Gilyard, as evidenced by a loss to Fresno St. UConn is supposed to be improved, but losing 30-10 to Michigan didn't show it, especially considering the clinic the Huskies put on on how not to catch the ball. Pittsburgh has serious offensive line woes that were evident against Utah, and now star defensive end Greg Romeus will miss several weeks with an injury. South Florida has yet to recover from the loss of Matt Grothe two years ago, and Syracuse is still the Duke of the Big East. This is hardly the profile of a power conference, but, as with the ACC, should make the race for the league title more fun. I would say that flawed West Virginia is the best bet to pull it out due to star running back Noel Devine, but there is a host of other teams who could put a stop to that.
Big East week 3 picks - WVU over Maryland, Cincy over NC State, UConn over Temple, Syracuse over Maine, and Oregon State over Louisville.
Week 3 outlook - A clean sweep this week is unlikely, but possible. Cincy will have a challenge with NC State, and Louisville will need a big effort to stop the Rodgers brothers and Upset the Beavers, but the rest of the Big East must win to keep some credibility as a power league.
Big 12 -
Through two weeks, the Big 12 continues to be one of the two or three best leagues in the country. Oklahoma has come out with a vengeance after struggling to put away Utah St, and rolled over Florida St. by 30 points. Landry Jones is looking like the next in a line of quality Oklahoma qbs, and the Sooners are currently the favorites in the South. Texas has a fantastic roster, but until Garrett Gilbert starts playing with a little more consistency, it will be difficult for the Longhorns to match OU. The rest of the division has been solid as well, but only Oklahoma has played a major opponent to date. It's hard to take much from blowout wins over FCS schools and low FBS schools. The only team that has really struggled is Oklahoma St., who survived a shootout against Troy. In the North, however, there is clearly a split between the teams that are good, and the teams that are bad. Nebraska may be the best team in the entire Big 12. Freshman Taylor Martinez at quarterback has the Husker offense looking like the offense of old under Eric Crouch and Tommy Frazier. Bo Pelini has the blackshirt defense back and with the new offense, Nebraska will be hard to beat. Missouri and Kansas State seem like solid programs, but both are certainly a step behind Nebraska. The rest of the division is not very good. Colorado was throttled by Cal, Kansas lost to an average FCS team by a score of 6-3, and Iowa St. was nearly blanked by their in-state rival Hawkeyes. All three have also played a good game, but each has also played a miserable game.
Big 12 week 3 picks - Kansas over Southern Miss, Kansas St. over Iowa St, Hawaii over Colorado, Oklahoma over Air Force, Nebraska over Washington, Texas over Texas Tech, TCU over Baylor, Oklahoma St. over Tulsa, Missouri over San Diego State, and Texas A&M over Florida International.
Week 3 outlook - A lot of games in week 3 could be toss-ups. Only Nebraska and Texas A&M strike me as sure winners this week. Oklahoma is pretty safe, but they have to be prepared for the option attack that has been very successful for Air Force the first two weeks. Texas will need a solid outing out of Gilbert to win in Lubbock against what is still a high scoring Red Raider offense. Baylor is a pretty big underdog, but could pull the upset over TCU if they play a great game. Kansas, Mizzou, Colorado, and Oklahoma St. are all capable of winning this week, but the games are played on the field, not in potential.
Big Ten -
No league has had more to beat it's chest about in the first two weeks of the season than the Big Ten. Ohio State rolled over a Marshall team that almost knocked off a ranked WVU team, then handled a ranked Miami team in week two. Wisconsin has played well enough in starting 2-0. Iowa dismantled the Cyclones from Ames. Michigan stormed out of the gates with Denard Robinson leading the way. Michigan State played under the radar despite dominating their games against Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Northwestern is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Illinois put up a fight against Missouri, and handled their second opponent. Penn St. will have struggles with their freshman quarterback, as evidenced by their loss to Alabama, but they will likely be bowling at season's end. The other 3 teams in the Big Ten are not very good, but this is still a deep and talented league that will play a role in deciding the national champion.
Big Ten week 3 picks - Michigan over UMass, Ohio St. over Ohio, Penn St. over Kent St., Illinois over Northern Illinois, Purdue over Ball St., USC over Minnesota, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Michigan St. over Notre Dame, Indiana over Western Kentucky, Northwestern over Rice, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - A lot of easy games for the Big Ten this week, and just a few that are tougher to pick. Minnesota would need an amazing effort to upend USC. Illinois and Northwestern should win, but neither can afford to take their next opponent lightly. Wisconsin needs to play strong defense against Arizona St., but should win that game. Michigan St. will not be overlooked for much longer if they can take down the Irish in East Lansing. Kirk Cousins is an effective quarterback, and the Spartans are just a solid, fundamentally sound squad. The game of the week in the Big Ten pits No. 9 Iowa against Pac-10 upstart Arizona. Mike Stoops has had Arizona improving every season, and a win over Iowa would be a huge statement. The Hawkeyes are definitely on upset alert this week.
Pac-10 -
The end of the USC dynasty has brought prosperity to the rest of the conference. The Oregon Ducks have easily the most explosive offense in the county over the season's first two weeks, and so far they look like national title contenders. Stanford, Arizona, and California are all serious threats from within the conference. USC is not on the same level as those teams after losing several key players to the NFL over the past two seasons. Oregon State and Washington should also be a factor in the race, but it should be a fun one to watch.
Pac-10 week 3 picks - California over Nevada, USC over Minnesota, Nebraska over Washington, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Oregon St. over Louisville, Oregon over Portland St., Houston over UCLA, SMU over Washington St., Stanford over Wake Forest, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - The Pac-10 has numerous chances to score upsets in week 3, with Arizona in the best position to succeed. Washington, UCLA, and Arizona St. could post great victories for the league if a few breaks go their way. Washington will likely need more than a few, but anything's possible when your opponent starts a freshman qb on the road. Washington St. is awful as usual, but a win over SMU isn't unthinkable.
SEC -
ACC -
Weeks one and two in the Atlantic Coast Conference have been forgettable at best. The conference entered the season with 5 ranked teams: Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. After two weeks, only the Hurricanes remain ranked, and even they have suffered a loss. This really is the status quo from this league over the past few seasons. The last time the ACC had a legitimate title contender was when Miami lost to Ohio State in the title game in January of '03. The returns of power programs at Miami and Florida State were greatly exaggerated. Georgia Tech couldnt defeat a Kansas team that was held to 3 points by a mediocre FCS team. To top that off, all of the promise surrounding this year's Tar Heels in Chapel Hill was wiped away by academic scandal involving all of UNC's best defensive players. Virginia Tech meanwhile, couldn't hold on for their comeback win against Boise on Labor Day, being beaten in the final minute by the Broncos, and then went out and lost to a James Madison team that, while good enough to be in the FCS playoffs at year's end, should never beat the Hokies. Va. Tech suffered from a hangover from the big loss to Boise, and the result shows it. The rest of the ACC has actually played pretty well so far this season, but it is far too early to take any of the 2-0 records seriously at this point. The conference race should be a wide open, wild ride. Miami is certainly the current favorite in the Coastal division, but don't count out the Hokies just yet. Even Michgan won 8 in a row after losing to Appalachian State and Oregon to open the 2007 season. The Atlantic division really is anyone's guess at this point, but there is a lot of football to help sort that out.
ACC week 3 picks - Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, West Virginia over Maryland, Cincinnati over North Carolina St., Florida St. Over BYU, Alabama over Duke, Auburn over Clemson, and Stanford over Wake Forest.
Week 3 outlook - The ACC will have a hard time picking up more than 3 wins this week, and one of those is a conference game. NC State has a realistic chance of beating Cincy, but any other ACC win would be a huge upset.
Big East -
In all seriousness, why does the Big East still get an automatic bid to the BCS over the Mountain West? The Big East is clearly the worst power conference this year. Only West Virginia and Rutgers escaped the first two weeks undefeated, and WVU escaped by the skin of their teeth against Marshall. The league is absolutely struggling to stay relevant. Schiano has done a nice job keeping Rutgers solid, but Louisville is a shell of it's former self. West Virginia is not nearly as dominant as it was under RichRod. Cincinnati is slipping without Brian Kelly, Tony Pike, and Mardy Gilyard, as evidenced by a loss to Fresno St. UConn is supposed to be improved, but losing 30-10 to Michigan didn't show it, especially considering the clinic the Huskies put on on how not to catch the ball. Pittsburgh has serious offensive line woes that were evident against Utah, and now star defensive end Greg Romeus will miss several weeks with an injury. South Florida has yet to recover from the loss of Matt Grothe two years ago, and Syracuse is still the Duke of the Big East. This is hardly the profile of a power conference, but, as with the ACC, should make the race for the league title more fun. I would say that flawed West Virginia is the best bet to pull it out due to star running back Noel Devine, but there is a host of other teams who could put a stop to that.
Big East week 3 picks - WVU over Maryland, Cincy over NC State, UConn over Temple, Syracuse over Maine, and Oregon State over Louisville.
Week 3 outlook - A clean sweep this week is unlikely, but possible. Cincy will have a challenge with NC State, and Louisville will need a big effort to stop the Rodgers brothers and Upset the Beavers, but the rest of the Big East must win to keep some credibility as a power league.
Big 12 -
Through two weeks, the Big 12 continues to be one of the two or three best leagues in the country. Oklahoma has come out with a vengeance after struggling to put away Utah St, and rolled over Florida St. by 30 points. Landry Jones is looking like the next in a line of quality Oklahoma qbs, and the Sooners are currently the favorites in the South. Texas has a fantastic roster, but until Garrett Gilbert starts playing with a little more consistency, it will be difficult for the Longhorns to match OU. The rest of the division has been solid as well, but only Oklahoma has played a major opponent to date. It's hard to take much from blowout wins over FCS schools and low FBS schools. The only team that has really struggled is Oklahoma St., who survived a shootout against Troy. In the North, however, there is clearly a split between the teams that are good, and the teams that are bad. Nebraska may be the best team in the entire Big 12. Freshman Taylor Martinez at quarterback has the Husker offense looking like the offense of old under Eric Crouch and Tommy Frazier. Bo Pelini has the blackshirt defense back and with the new offense, Nebraska will be hard to beat. Missouri and Kansas State seem like solid programs, but both are certainly a step behind Nebraska. The rest of the division is not very good. Colorado was throttled by Cal, Kansas lost to an average FCS team by a score of 6-3, and Iowa St. was nearly blanked by their in-state rival Hawkeyes. All three have also played a good game, but each has also played a miserable game.
Big 12 week 3 picks - Kansas over Southern Miss, Kansas St. over Iowa St, Hawaii over Colorado, Oklahoma over Air Force, Nebraska over Washington, Texas over Texas Tech, TCU over Baylor, Oklahoma St. over Tulsa, Missouri over San Diego State, and Texas A&M over Florida International.
Week 3 outlook - A lot of games in week 3 could be toss-ups. Only Nebraska and Texas A&M strike me as sure winners this week. Oklahoma is pretty safe, but they have to be prepared for the option attack that has been very successful for Air Force the first two weeks. Texas will need a solid outing out of Gilbert to win in Lubbock against what is still a high scoring Red Raider offense. Baylor is a pretty big underdog, but could pull the upset over TCU if they play a great game. Kansas, Mizzou, Colorado, and Oklahoma St. are all capable of winning this week, but the games are played on the field, not in potential.
Big Ten -
No league has had more to beat it's chest about in the first two weeks of the season than the Big Ten. Ohio State rolled over a Marshall team that almost knocked off a ranked WVU team, then handled a ranked Miami team in week two. Wisconsin has played well enough in starting 2-0. Iowa dismantled the Cyclones from Ames. Michigan stormed out of the gates with Denard Robinson leading the way. Michigan State played under the radar despite dominating their games against Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Northwestern is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Illinois put up a fight against Missouri, and handled their second opponent. Penn St. will have struggles with their freshman quarterback, as evidenced by their loss to Alabama, but they will likely be bowling at season's end. The other 3 teams in the Big Ten are not very good, but this is still a deep and talented league that will play a role in deciding the national champion.
Big Ten week 3 picks - Michigan over UMass, Ohio St. over Ohio, Penn St. over Kent St., Illinois over Northern Illinois, Purdue over Ball St., USC over Minnesota, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Michigan St. over Notre Dame, Indiana over Western Kentucky, Northwestern over Rice, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - A lot of easy games for the Big Ten this week, and just a few that are tougher to pick. Minnesota would need an amazing effort to upend USC. Illinois and Northwestern should win, but neither can afford to take their next opponent lightly. Wisconsin needs to play strong defense against Arizona St., but should win that game. Michigan St. will not be overlooked for much longer if they can take down the Irish in East Lansing. Kirk Cousins is an effective quarterback, and the Spartans are just a solid, fundamentally sound squad. The game of the week in the Big Ten pits No. 9 Iowa against Pac-10 upstart Arizona. Mike Stoops has had Arizona improving every season, and a win over Iowa would be a huge statement. The Hawkeyes are definitely on upset alert this week.
Pac-10 -
The end of the USC dynasty has brought prosperity to the rest of the conference. The Oregon Ducks have easily the most explosive offense in the county over the season's first two weeks, and so far they look like national title contenders. Stanford, Arizona, and California are all serious threats from within the conference. USC is not on the same level as those teams after losing several key players to the NFL over the past two seasons. Oregon State and Washington should also be a factor in the race, but it should be a fun one to watch.
Pac-10 week 3 picks - California over Nevada, USC over Minnesota, Nebraska over Washington, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Oregon St. over Louisville, Oregon over Portland St., Houston over UCLA, SMU over Washington St., Stanford over Wake Forest, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - The Pac-10 has numerous chances to score upsets in week 3, with Arizona in the best position to succeed. Washington, UCLA, and Arizona St. could post great victories for the league if a few breaks go their way. Washington will likely need more than a few, but anything's possible when your opponent starts a freshman qb on the road. Washington St. is awful as usual, but a win over SMU isn't unthinkable.
SEC -
Alabama still runs the SEC. Greg McElroy hasn't lost a game as a starter since before high school. Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are a dangerous duo in the backfield, and Julio Jones is an elite wide receiver. The defense suffered major losses from last season, but still looked pretty sharp in holding Penn St. to 3 points last Saturday. The rest of the west is solid, but not on the same level as Bama. Auburn has been solid under Florida transfer Cameron Newton, while LSU and Arkansas have looked shaky in starting 2-0. Ole Miss and Miss. St. still need to get better. Florida in the East could be scary good if they can stop fumbling snaps and get more consistency out of John Brantley. South Carolina looks like the best contender to the throne, as Steve Spurrier may have his best team yet in Columbia. Marcus Lattimore has been fantastic so far running the ball for the Gamecocks. Georgia has a solid roster, but desperately need star wideout AJ Green back, as the passing game often struggled in losing 17-6 to South Carolina. Tennessee is far from back to prominence, as another bad loss to the Gators this week will demonstrate. Kentucky should start 3-0, but it will be an uphill battle to wind up in the upper half of the division. Vandy is just ba.
SEC week 3 picks - Florida over Tennessee, Alabama over Duke, Ole Miss over Vandy, Kentucky over Akron, South Carolina over Furman, Auburn over Clemson, LSU over Miss. St., and Georgia over Arkansas.
Week 3 outlook - The first five picks all seem like sure things to me. Auburn will have a good game with Clemson, but Cameron Newton and the home crowd will be enough to pick up the win. LSU can't overlook Miss. St., as Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs playing solid football. The Bayou Bengals should still win. I believe Georgia will pull the upset over Arkansas. Washaun Ealey will be playig with a chip on his shoulder after a critical fumble ended UGa's comeback effort against the Gamecocks. I believe that even without Green, the Bulldogs will find a way to win.
The Best of the Rest -
Boise State's national title hopes took a huge hit when the Hokies went down to James Madison last week. Last year's opening win over Oregon only became more valuable as the Ducks won the Pac-10, and that still didn't get the unbeaten Broncos close to the title game. This year's early loss by VaTech means the Broncos will need a lot of help to play for all the marbles. TCU has an easier path to the title game, as they get an extra high-profile game within their conference schedule. Utah will be a tough game for TCU, but a win over the Utes could be the boost they need to get to the title game. Boise, on the other hand, only has Nevada and Fresno St. as challenges within the WAC, and neither of those games will give the Broncos much of a boost in the polls. Both teams deserve consideration, but it's always an uphill battle to get to the title game from a non automatic qualifier conferece. The early season MAC favorite in a down year for the conference is Western Michigan. Houston, meanwhile, is the clear favorite in Conference USA.
Other week 3 picks - Marshall over Bowling Green, Troy over UAB, Colorado St. over Miami Oh., Boise St. over Wyoming, Utah over New Mexico, Fresno St. over Utah St., Navy over Louisiana Tech, Western Michigan over Toledo, Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan, and UCF over Buffalo.
MY National Top 25
- Alabama
- Ohio St.
- Oregon
- TCU
- Oklahoma
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Boise St.
- Texas
- Florida
- Stanford
- Auburn
- Arizona
- Wisconsin
- South Carolina
- California
- Michigan
- Utah
- LSU
- Miami (FL)
- Texas A&M
- Arkansas
- West Virginia
- Michigan State
- Texas Tech
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