There is just one more week until Oregon and Auburn square off for all the marbles in college football this season (despite any arguments TCU may have), and there is another week of appetizers before we get to that main course. This past weekend helped to remind us why we considered the SEC as the best conference in the country as Florida, Alabama and Mississippi State all rolled over their overmatched Big Ten foes. I was certainly wrong when I said Michigan State would not get blown out by Alabama. Bowl season has not been good to the Big Ten, which is now 2-5 overall after an 0-5 New Year's Day. Ohio State still has a shot to redeem the Big Ten against the SEC in their Sugar Bowl matchup with Arkansas. That's enough talk about what has already happened, let's look at what's going to happen in this final week of action:
Discover Orange Bowl (1/3 8:30 p.m.)
Virginia Tech 26, Stanford 24 - The matchup is going to be an interesting one. These two teams are both on fantastic winning streaks coming into this game, and both would like to win it to close their seasons. You have to question where Stanford's focus will be after reports surfaced that Jim Harbaugh will likely not return as coach next season as he will have plenty of options in the NFL and possibly at his alma mater at Michigan if Rich Rodriguez is not retained. Harbaugh will be coaching in this game and should be able to keep his squad focused on the task at hand. The big story on the field will be the play of the two dynamic quarterbacks who lead these teams. Tyrod Taylor and Andrew Luck are very different players, but both are very good players and very good leaders. Taylor is a dual-threat quarterback who has really progressed as a passer each season and has only thrown 4 interceptions all season long, and he has a fantastic running game to go along with his improved passing attack. Ryan Williams is healthy, and Darren Evans proved to be a more than capable fill-in back rushing for a team best 817 yards and averaging almost 6 yards a carry. Andrew Luck on the other side is a phenomenal passer who is considered to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country and many believe would be the first pick in the draft if he were to go pro. Luck can make all of the throws, whether short or long, and he is very accurate completing about 70 percent of his passes. Luck can run a little bit too, and keeping Stanford's offense contained could present real challenges for Va Tech. This game will come down to which defense is able to make the adjustments to slow down the dynamic quarterback they face. I think that team will be the Hokies. They haven't lost a game since September, and they will likely find a way to win this game. Stanford will struggle to stay totally focused with the issues surrounding the coach, and Virginia Tech will take advantage and pull out a very narrow victory.
Confidence Points - 7 points
Allstate Sugar Bowl (1/4 8:30 p.m.)
Ohio State 31, Arkansas 28 - This will be the Big Ten's last shot at redemption this bowl season. For Ohio State, that idea of redemption runs a little deeper than conference ties. The Buckeyes have never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game. Ever. They are 0-9 all-time vs. the boys from the southeast, including 0-3 under head coach Jim Tressel. Tressel has taken OSU to two national title games, which they lost to SEC powerhouses LSU and Florida. Ohio State should have all the motivation in the world to beat this Arkansas team. Arkansas shold have their own motivation with this being their first ever BCS bowl game. Ryan Mallett has a little extra itch to beat the Buckeyes as a former Michigan Wolverine, a program that has never had a reason to like OSU. All of that says little of the matchup on the field. Ohio State has simply had the better defense of these two teams all season long. Ryan Mallett has made some good defenses look silly, and the emergence of Knile Davis running the ball over the second half of the season has opened things up even more in the passing game, but the Hogs are still missing top wideout Greg Childs, and Ohio State has made some pretty explosive offenses look pretty tame. I think they are able to slow down Arkansas enough to win this one against an Arkansas defense that has been sloppy in the team's losses to Auburn and Alabama. I think Terelle Pryor, Boom Herron, and Brandon Saine will rule the day and guide Ohio State to a close victory.
Confidence Points - 8 points
GoDaddy.com Bowl (1/6 8 p.m.)
Miami OH 27, Middle Tennessee State 17 - This game is about the least interesting matchup left on the bowl slate, as a MAC vs. Sun Belt game does little to interest people not attending the schools involved. Miami of Ohio has been pretty good down the stretch winning their final 5 games of the season including one of the best wins by any MAC school all year over NIU in the MAC title game. Zach Dysert has shown flashes at times this year, and Middle Tennessee has underachieved all year. Dwight Dasher was thought to be the best and most dynamic quarterback in the Sun Belt entering this season, not to mention he has one of the best names, and he has fallen far short of those expectations. Dasher threw just 6 touchdowns and 14 picks while MTSU went just 6-6 in one of the weakest leagues in the country. The Blue Raiders were very impressive in last year's New Orleans Bowl and they did take down the Sun Belt champs FIU in the regular season finale to earn a bowl bid this year. This is not the same Blue Raider team as last year however, and I think Miami Ohio will do enough to win this game by 2 scores. There is talk that Zach Dysert might not play due to injury, but his backup Austin Boucher has been impressive in his limited duty, and it shouldn't matter who starts for the Redhawks in this one.
Confidence Points - 23 points
AT&T Cotton Bowl (1/7 8 p.m.)
Texas A&M 23, LSU 14 - Texas A&M has been red hot down the stretch of the season. After opening the season 3-3, they really turned a corner when they switched from Jarrod Johnson to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and finished a a 6-game winning streak. Tannehill managed to avoid the silly turnovers that plagued Johnson, and the defense really came together and started to shut teams down. LSU has been spectacular on defense, but the offense has really struggled for much of the year due to terrible quarterback play by both Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. They have often leaned on running back Stevan Ridley to keep them moving, but Ridley is suspended for this game. It is going to take much more than another Les Miles miracle to be able to move the ball against Texas A&M. The Aggies need to be balanced on offense with Cyrus Gray running the ball, and avoid throwing at Patrick Peterson and they should be able to do enough to knock off the Bayou Bengals and finish the year on a 7-game streak.
Confidence Points - 1 point
BBVA Compass Bowl (1/8 12 p.m.)
Pittsburgh 28, Kentucky 17 - This game became much easier to predict when Kentucky suspended senior starting quarterback Mike Hartline for this bowl game. The Wildcats swooned late in the season, and this suspension should make it hard to recover from that. The Wildcats second leading passer for the season is wide receiver Randall Cobb. No one else on the team has played much quarterback, and it will be awfully tough for anyone to step in and not have a dropoff from the success that Hartline has had. Pitt should be able to keep the Wildcats in check on offense, and Ray Graham and Dion Lewis are a dynamic two headed backfield monster that should do plenty to get Pitt the win in this game.
Confidence Points - 33 points
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (1/9 9 p.m.)
Nevada 27, Boston College 20 - Boston College is proud just to be in a bowl game after opening conference play at 0-4 and finishing strong to get bowl eligible. Nevada, meanwhile, was fantastic all season, only losing once to Hawaii, and they are the only team to beat Boise State in the last 2 years. Nevada runs a very dynamic pistol offense led by Colin Kaepernick, who has slowly become a better passer over his years as starter. Kaepernick is also a very dangerous runner. Boston College has had one of the better defenses around, and should certainly have some success slowing the Wolf Pack down in this game, but as usual, scoring enough points to win it will be the question mark. BC has really played pretty well this season, but this Nevada offense is just too good to keep bottled up for an entire game. The Eagles will keep them from putting up the gaudy numbers they are capable of, but Nevada will do enough to outscore the lackluster BC offense and win the game.
Confidence Points - 25 points
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game (1/10 8:30 p.m.)
Auburn 41, Oregon 39 - The biggest game of the season pits two mile-a-minute offenses against one another as Cameron Newton and his incredible mix of running and passing talents in Auburn's hurry-up offense squares off against the Oregon Ducks and their blur offense. Both teams have run the table to get to this game behind their offensive prowess, but most people believe this game will be decided by which defense steps up. Both Oregon and Auburn have had a couple games that showed that their defenses were vulnerable, but both have had strong points as well. Oregon's defense was opportunistic, as they were one of the best in all of college football in turnover margin. Auburn's did its best work playing from behind. Every time they fell into a deep hole, the defense would stiffen up and shut down their opponent while Cam Newton put together one drive after another to take the game back. Nick Fairley seemed to make one huge play just about every game from his defensive tackle position to add fuel to the comeback fire, and this team had to come back a lot. Auburn definitely played the stronger schedule this season of the two teams, and played in the tougher conference, which has led everyone to give them the slight advantage in this game. There are a lot of reasons to pick the Ducks to win this game, though. Oregon has had far fewer close calls than the Tigers. They do a great job of forcing turnovers, and they run the fastest paced offense in the country. They don't give the big guys up front for Auburn (the stength of the Tiger defense), a chance to catch their breath and Nick Fairley may spend more time on the sideline than usual. Oregon's defense runs out constant substitutions and they have 22 players who get playing time just about every game. It will keep them fresh all day and will prevent them from being worn out for the late game drives for Cam Newton. If Oregon gets a lead early, it won't be as easy for them to come back as it usually is. Even with all of this saying that the Ducks can win this game, I just don't think Cam Newton will let Auburn lose. He has willed this team to victory each and every week, and I simply can't pick against him and the Tigers.
Confidence Points - 4 points
That's all of the bowl games for this year. Hopefully I know what I'm talking about with these picks, but you never know. Enjoy watching the rest of the games, and good luck to any of you with money riding on them.
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