What we've Learned in College Football: Week 5

Another exciting week is in the books in an intense college football season, and this week, it was about survival. Several unbeaten teams had to survive near collapses to stay unbeaten and keep their big-time bowl hopes alive. For starters, the LSU Tigers were given a gift from the gods in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Jordan Jefferson cotinued his poor play at quarterback and was eventually benched for Jarrett Lee, who promptly threw the longest pass of the season for the Tigers. But, in the closing seconds, trailing by 4 points, head coach Les Miles reinserted Jefferson into the game with 30 seconds remaining to run a predictable option play. Miles has a history of bad clock management, and this game added to that history. After Tennessee stopped that obvious option run a yard shy of the end zone, the Tigers suddenly didn't know what to do next. The clock was ticking, they were out of timeouts, and they didn't seem to know what the next play was. By the time they were lined up, only 5 seconds were left and the center snapped the ball to Jefferson, who was looking the other way, with 3 ticks left. The ball flew by Jefferson and the seconds ticked away. A jubilant Tennessee team rushed onto the field in celebration, until a booth review of the final play was called for, and it was determined that there were somehow 13 Vols on the field on the final snap. Tennessee scored on a toss play after the penalty with no time left on the clock, and survived the biggest scare of the weekend. They weren't the only survival experts though. Ohio State survived an injury to Terrelle Pryor and a more game Illinois team than they expected. Their survival moment was when the Illini elected to kick a field goal down by seven with only 4 minutes left in the game. The Buckeyes marched down the field on their ensuing drive to score again and put the game away at 24-13. The fighting Denard Robinsons survived a very stiff challenge from the Indiana Hoosiers, in a game that could have been a bit easier if they hadn't fumbled the ball at the Indiana 1-yard line already up a touchdown. Instead, the fumble turned the game into two teams trading touchdowns until the final moments, as the Hoosiers knotted the game up at 28 with only a minute to go. Denard Robinson again took these Wolverines on his shoulders and hit a long pass to Junior Hemingway, and then ran in for the winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The Wolverines played very poorly on the defensive side of the ball, but they survived. The Oklahoma Sooners seemed to have a nice easy victory coming in the Red River Shooout with Texas, but they struggled to finish this one off. After the Sooners held a two score lead for much of the game, the Longhorns finally closed to 28-20 with about a minute and a half to play. They still had all three timeouts left, so the Sooners needed at least one first down to seal it. A short run on first down got the first timeout used, but on second down, Landry Jones was hit in the backfield and fumbled inside his own 15-yard line. Luckily, Jones was able to swat the ball out of bounds before something catastrophic happened. A run up the gut by DeMarco Murray got the second UT timeout used, but the Longhorns would have about a minute to score a TD and two-point conversion to tie it up. Luckily for the Sooners once again, Texas punt returner Aaron Williams failed to call a fair catch in traffic and muffed the punt to give the ball back to OU. The Sooners made some mistakes, but they survived. They have been making a habit of this survival thing with only 1 victory by more than 8 points, and two that were secured by muffed punts. Oregon survived their first true test of the year after falling into a 21-3 hole after the opening quarter by simply dominating the rest of the way. They outscored the Cardinal 48-10 the rest of the way. One team lacking that survival instinct on Saturday was the North Carolina State Wolfpack. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, the Pack struggled with turnovers and let Virginia Tech back into the game. Russell Wilson threw his 2nd, 3rd, and 4th interceptions of the year, including one late in the 4th quarter in a 4-point hole that really ended their survival efforts. With so many teams scraping by this week, it was hard to miss the dominance of Alabama in their game against Florida. The 31-6 drubbing leaves little doubt as to who the best team in the SEC is. Let's take a look at who the rest of the country fared in week 5.

ACC -

This week was bittersweet for the ACC. Virginia Tech continued to establish themselves as back in the picture for an ACC title, but in doing so, knocked off the last remaining unbeaten in the ACC. North Carolina continued to rebound from their slow start with another nice non-conference victory. Georgia Tech needed a big 4th quarter rally to beat the lowly Demon Deacons of Wake Forest. Tech needs to find some consistency. Miami and Florida State remained unbeaten in league play to keep their matchup with each other next week a big one. Clemson still has some life left, but their division title hopes are a little slimmer after a loss to Miami.

ACC week 6 picks - Virginia Tech over Central Michigan, NC State over Boston College, Georgia Tech over Virginia, Navy over Wake Forest, Clemson over North Carolina, Miami over Florida State

Week 6 Outlook - The Techs and Navy should win easily, but Georgia Tech must avoid an early hole against Virginia. Boston College has a solid enough defense to compete in this league, but Shinskie and the offense just have been bad. Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack will find a way to put up enough points to beat the Eagles this week. North Carolina has been impressive in getting their legs back under them the last two games, but Clemson is itching for a big win, and this would qualify. Andre Ellington got loose running the ball against Miami last weekend, and with many defensive studs still sitting out for the Tar Heels, I expect he will do it again and help Clemson to a hard fought win. The ACC matchup of the week is definitely the game between the Hurricanes and Seminoles. Jacory Harris continued to throw interceptions last week, but he also continues to hit big throws downfield to Leonard Hankerson. If the Seminoles try to bottle the big play up, Harris is a good enough qb to pick apart the underneath coverage. The 'Noles have been playing better each week, but Miami is easily the best opponent they have faced since Oklahoma, and possibly all year. I like the Canes by 2 scores.

Big East -

Another tough week in the Big East saw Rutgers fall to Tulane at home, and Louisville struggle a little with Arkansas State. On the plus side for the conference, UConn finally started playing good football and Cody Endres was surprisingly good as a balanced Husky offense dropped 40 on Vanderbilt. It was good to see UConn lean on Jordan Todman, who had a big game in the win. Pittsburgh also finally got the ground game going. Dion Lewis was sidelined again with an injury, but the running game still got going in a big way as backup Ray Graham ran for 277 yards and 3 scores against FIU. While the Panthers are winless, they have been competitive against decent competition. Pitt has to feel a little better about where they stand now in the Big East, but they need to continue to have success on offense to have a shot at the league title.

Big East Week 6 picks - UConn over Rutgers, South Forida over Syracuse, Louisville over Memphis, Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, West Virginia over UNLV, Cincinnati over Miami OH

Week 6 Outlook - Louisville hasn't been very impressive thus far, and may struggle with Memphis, but I expect a win. West Virginia should make quick work of UNLV. Cincy should do the same with Miami of Ohio. Notre Dame struggled to shut down Stanford's running game a couple weeks ago, but Pitt's running game isn't nearly as good as that one. I know Pitt was good last weekend, but I need to see it again before I really believe in the Panthers. Notre Dame should get back to .500. B.J. Daniels and South Florida shouldn't need the homefield advantage to beat the 'Cuse, but they have it anyway. It's easy to be 3-1 when your wins are over Akron, Colgate, and Maine, as Syracuse's wins are. The best matchup of the week is between UConn and Rutgers. Clearly Rutgers is struggling at this point, and UConn appears to be hitting their stride. The switch to Cody Endres at qb seems to be a spark for this offense, contrary to what I predicted a week ago, and I think they continue to roll this week with a win over Rutgers.

Big 12 -

The Red River rivalry game has given Oklahoma a clear leg up in the Big 12 South, but there are a couple threats still lurking on the schedule. Both Oklahoma State and Baylor remained unbeaten in league play this past weekend, with the Cowboys taking down fellow unbeaten Texas A&M, and Baylor absolutely destroying the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor can be scary when they get going, and Oklahoma really hasn't overwhelmed many of its opponents. In the North, 4 teams are still unblemished in league play, with 3 still perfect overall, but Nebraska and Kansas State seem a cut above the others. They meet this week to establish the clear number one in the division. Colorado is still 0-0 in Big 12 play, but has been solid in the nonconference with wins over Hawaii, Georgia, and rival Colorado St. They likely won't have the same success in league play, but Dan Hawkins is starting to get himself off the hot seat. Missouri is also undefeated, but with their first 5 games all at home, what do we really know about Blaine Gabbert and the Tigers? We'll see when they play some road games.

Big 12 Week 6 Picks - Nebraska over Kansas St., Oklahoma St. over UL Lafayette, Baylor over Texas Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Utah over Iowa State, Missouri over Colorado

Week 6 outlook - Nebraska should win big on Thursday night. Kansas State has been strong on the defensive side of the ball, but the Husker blackshirt defense has been back under Bo Pelini, and the Wildcats will have to be creative offensively to get Daniel Thomas going against the strong front. The crowd in Manhattan will be fired up, but Taylor Martinez handled a hostile environment pretty well in Seattle, and I think the Nebraska offense does enough on the road to win by 10 points. Oklahoma State should win in a walk on Friday. If Texas A&M struggled to stop Brandon Weeden and Oklahoma State's passing attack, Ryan Mallett will look like Peyton Manning to the Aggies. If Jerrod Johnson can cut down on the turnovers that plagued him against the Cowboys, the Aggies can stay in the game, but in the end, the Razorbacks' passing attack will be too much to stop. Baylor should dispatch of Texas Tech by multiple scores. Robert Griffin and the Bears offense has been very dynamic, while the Texas Tech offense has looked anemic in recent weeks. The Red Raiders are going down at home in Lubbock. Mizzou and Colorado should be an interesting game this week. The Tigers are at home yet again, but the Buffs are building some early season momentum. I like the Tigers to win this game, but nothing would surprise me here.

Big Ten -

Last week was a big one in the midwest. The Big Ten pack is starting to separate a little bit, and the cream that is rising to the top so far is Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan State. Iowa is unbeaten in conference play, and the others are unbeaten overall. While Michigan and Ohio State were surviving last weekend, Michigan State was handling Wisconsin in an impressive upset win, and Iowa was dismantling the Penn State Nittany Lions 24-3. The next couple weeks should tell a lot more about where these teams stand as Michigan and Michigan State will play this weekend, and Iowa and Michigan next weekend. Wisconsin and Northwestern are still flies in the ointment for the top 4, but Northwestern has struggled against some fairly weak opposition, and some losses are coming in Big Ten play. Wisconsin has been solid, but they really haven't dominated up front on offense the way you expect a Wisconsin team to. Penn State is quickly fading to the background in the Big Ten race, and things should really heat up throughout October.

Big Ten Week 6 picks - Ohio State over Indiana, Wisconsin over Minnesota, Illinois over Penn State, Northwestern over Purdue, Michigan State over Michigan

Week 6 Outlook - The Buckeyes should have Terrelle Pryor back at full strength this week, and he should dismantle Indiana's very porous defense in an easy OSU win. Minnesota isn't a very good passing team, and it's tough to run on the Badgers' defensive front with J.J. Watt wreaking havoc all over the field. I like Wisconsin by 2 touchdowns. Hopefully Illinois has learned from their mistakes of playing conservative late in an upset bid. I really question Rob Bolden and this Penn State offense, and Illinois showed that they can play with a very good team last week. I really believe that Illinois can go into Happy Valley and shock the Nittany Lions. PSU was not impressive at home against Temple, and if they are equally unimpressive against Illinois, they will go down. Northwestern will make it interesting as always against Purdue, but I think they come up with another victory and head into their showdown with Michigan St. in two weeks undefeated. Should be a great home crowd in Evanston for the undefeated Wildcats. The Big Ten game of the week is between the Spartans and the Wolverines. It doesn't take an expert in college football to tell you that Denard Robinson is good. It also doesn't take an expert to tell you that the Michigan defense is not. Anyone who watched the Indiana game saw Ben Chappell finding WIDE open receivers all day. Every time there was a third down, Chappell would calmly hit his target with no one around him. This cannot happen in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Robinson and the Wolverine offense will be electric as always, but the key to this game will be Michigan's defense. They need to put tighter coverage on the receivers, especially on third down, and be sure in their tackles or Le'Veon Bell and Edwin Baker will carve them up on the ground as well. It will be a trying day for the Wolverines if they try to blitz Kirk Cousins. They struggle to cover the pass in a base defense, and Cousins handles the blitz well. Things could get ugly if Cousins is throwing into less coverage due to the blitz. I think MSU's balanced offense is enough to pull off the victory in a good game. Also, keep an eye on MSU linebacker Greg Jones, who will likely spy Denard Robinson for much of the game. If he has success containing Denard early in the game, look for the Spartans to win big.

Pac-10 -

The biggest game on the Pac-10 schedule is now in the past, and Oregon is now the clear-cut favorite to win the conference. While tests from Arizona, USC, and UCLA still lie ahead, the Ducks will likely be double-digit favorites in each of those games after the pasting they gave to Stanford in Eugene. Stanford should be happy that this game was so early on the schedule, because if they win out as well, an at-large BCS berth is theirs for the taking. UCLA won again to stay relevant in the conference, and Oregon State remained unscathed in Pac-10 play. The biggest surprise of week 5 came in Washington and Jake Locker upsetting the USC Trojans in Pasadena. People had been giving the Trojans some credit in the polls despite a weak early schedule and a lack of dominance in those games, but they were brought back to earth with a crushing loss at the hands of a Washington team that had been mediocre so far. This is a big blow for Lane Kiffin's squad, who already are not allowed to play in a bowl game this season.

Pac-10 Week 6 Picks - UCLA over California, Oregon over Washington State, Arizona over Oregon State, Stanford over USC, Washington over Arizona State

Week 6 outlook - Oregon might be able to drop 80 on the Cougars. Stanford will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after the frustrating loss to Oregon, and USC will feel that wrath. Stanford will win by at least 2 touchdowns. Washington is gaining momentum and will play with a lot of confidence after beating USC on the road. Arizona State will be hoping for a letdown game out of the Huskies, but likely will not receive one. Arizona State will try to pressure Locker, but he is just too athletic to be trapped in the pocket. I think UW rides the wave to another victory and a 2-0 Pac-10 start. Arizona takes on a strong Oregon State team this week, but I think Nick Foles and the Wildcat offense will be better this week than they were against Cal. The Rodgers brothers will be a handful as always, but I think Ryan Katz is due for a pick or two, probably at inopportune times. I like the Wildcats by about a touchdown. UCLA and Cal should be an exciting game, but I think the win streak continues for the Bruins. Jonathan Franklin has been fantastic runnning the ball, and while this isn't the same offense Nevada runs, it is still the option game a little bit, and Cal gave up over 50 points to Nevada's option offense.

SEC -

The SEC looks a little more decided now than it was a week ago. I still believe Florida is the best team in the SEC East, and really just has to make sure to beat South Carolina to seal up the division title. Kentucky has shown that they aren't on that level yet, and Georgia and Tennessee are in too deep of holes already to climb out of. Vanderbilt is also bad, which leaves South Carolina as the only real threat. The West is much tighter, but who can beat the Crimson Tide? Bama is obviously the lead horse in the race, with LSU and Auburn nipping at their heels. I don't see LSU as a real threat unless a switch to Jarrett Lee is permanent and he plays fantastically. Auburn has been fun to watch, but Alabama and Arkansas won't let them win if they fall behind early as they like to do. The Razorbacks are likely playing for second, but have been very solid so far. Mississippi St. has been improved, but not enough to compete in the west, and Ole Miss is a wild card. Jeremiah Masoli is finally looking comfortable in this offense and the results are starting to show on the field. They won't be a real factor in the title race, but they could be great at playing spoiler along the way.

SEC week 6 picks - Georgia over Tennessee, Arkansas over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt over Eastern Michigan, Alabama over South Carolina, Florida over LSU, Auburn over Kentucky, Mississippi State over Houston

Week 6 Outlook - Georgia and Tennessee are desperate for a win, and I think Tennessee will have a hard time recovering psychologically from the loss to LSU, and Georgia was much better offensively with AJ Green back. The game is between the hedges at Sanford Stadium, and that's enough of an edge for the Bulldogs. Arkansas should win if Mallett plays well. Vanderbilt should easily beat EMU, and Mississippi St. will be too much for Houston with no Case Keenum. Auburn should come into this game ready for Kentucky after an easy one last week, and if they can avoid falling behind early, I see a 2 touchdown win for Cam Newton and the Tigers. Much like Stanford, Florida will be playing angry against LSU, and LSU can't possibly keep being as lucky as they were last week. They plan to use both Jefferson and Lee at qb, and it will make the offese even more inconsistent. Florida is a very opportunistic defensive team, and LSU may have a solid defense, but I think Florida will clean up the turnovers that cost them against the Tide, and the Gators win by 10 at home. Alabama needs to not let up after two huge wins over Arkansas and Florida, and going to Columbia, they have to be ready for a tough game. They can beat South Carolina by a big margin if they play well, but it will depend on what the defense does to Stephen Garcia and Marcus Lattimore. South Carolina will not be very good against this Bama running game, and if they can bottle up Lattimore like Auburn did, the Tide will roll again. The National Title really looks to be their final destination this season.

Best of the Rest -

Boise rolled again, this time over New Mexico 59-0. TCU joined the shutout party with a 27-0 win over Colorado State. Temple beat Army by a touchdown to go to 4-1, and they did it without Bernard Pierce. The NIU Huskies jumped into the MAC race with a 50-14 drubbing of Akron. Nevada and Utah stayed unbeaten to give Boise and TCU better competition, and Fresno St. won also to go to 4-1. Conference USA has been heating up with Southern Miss, UTEP, and SMU all looking good early in the season.

Other Week 6 picks - Boise State over Toledo, TCU over Wyoming, Utah over Iowa State, SMU over Tulsa, Nevada over San Jose State, Utep over Rice, Fresno State over Hawaii, Southern Miss over East Carolina, New Mexico over New Mexico State, San Diego State over BYU, Utah State over Louisiana Tech, Tulane over Army, Notre Dame over Pittsburgh, Air Force over Colorado State, Temple over Northern Illinois, Western Michigan over Ball State

Conference Power Rankings

1. SEC - losing its stranglehold on the top spot, but still there at no. 1

2. Pac-10 - Still holding steady at 2, but the Big Ten is close behind.

3. Big Ten - MSU, U of M, and Northwestern all unbeaten still helps league strength

4. ACC - The ACC has topped the Big 12 for now, as the Big 12 is having a down year and the ACC has bounced back from a slow start.

5. Big 12 - Only Nebraska and Oklahoma stick out so far.

6. Mountain West - TCU, Air Force, and Utah are all top 25 teams

7. WAC - Boise carries the flag well, but there are other solid teams

8. Big East - UConn finally righted the ship, but Rutgers fall to Tulane negates progress

9. Conference USA - If Big Esst continues to struggle, we may see a switch of 8 and 9

10. Mid American - Temple and NIU seem like the only respectable teams

11. Sun Belt - Less respectability here.

My Top 25

1. Alabama (prev. 1)

2. Oregon (3)

3. Ohio State (2)

4. TCU (4)

5. Boise State (5)

6. Nebraska (8)

7. Oklahoma (9)

8. Arizona (10)

9. Auburn (11)

10. Iowa (13)

11. Utah (14)

12. LSU (12)

13. Stanford (7)

14. Florida (6)

15. Michigan State (17)

16. Miami FL (18)

17. Michigan (16)

18. Arkansas (20)

19. Nevada (22)

20. South Carolina (19)

21. Wisconsin (15)

22. Oklahoma State (UNR)

23. Kansas State (UNR)

24. Northwestern (25)

25. Air Force (UNR)

Dropped from rankings - Texas (21), USC (23), and Texas A&M (24)