WOW, what a wild week 6 in the world of college football. The kings have fallen. Alabama, who hadn't lost a game since losing the Sugar Bowl to Utah after the 2008 season, a string of 19 consecutive victories, got manhandled by South Carolina Saturday evening. The Tide failed to run the ball, and they failed to do much of anything to slow down the Gamecock offense. The resulting 35-21 loss has left a lot of upheaval at the top of the rankings. There are now 13 unbeaten teams vying for just two spots in the national title game. For Alabama to get back to the championship, they will need a lot of help. Some of that help would have to come from Les Miles and LSU, who pulled another rabbit out of their hat to stay unbeaten this past weekend. I don't know what kind of mystical clock mismanagement powers this guy has, but his Tigers always seem to win when they try to give a game away. Last week, they were bailed out by an unprepared Tennessee team that lined up 13 players for what should have been the final play. This week, Les Miles actually ran down the clock to sell that the Tigers were going to kick a field goal, then called a timeout that could have essentially iced his own kicker. You would almost expect some Les Miles trickery, but the Florida Gators were not ready, and the ensuing fake that magically bounced straight up off the ground into the arms of the waiting LSU kicker to run for the first down was nothing short of miraculous. Les Miles will eventually run out of miracles. The question is when. As things stand now, Ohio State and Oregon would be the top two, and would be slated to play for the title if the season ended today. However, there are 11 other unbeatens in Boise State, TCU, LSU, Michigan State, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nevada, Utah and Auburn who would all like to stake their claim to those spots. There is a lot of season left, and a lot can still change.
ACC -
Every time the ACC seems to be taking a step forward, one of their big teams takes an embarrassing loss. It happened when the Seminoles were routed by Oklahoma, when Kansas topped Georgia Tech, when James Madison bested Virginia Tech, and now league favorite Miami gets pasted by the same Seminoles that couldn't finish closer than 30 behind the Sooners. The vaunted Canes defense was absolutely rocked by FSU running backs Jermaine Thomas and Chris Thompson, who combined for 236 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and Thomas added another score receiving. The 'Noles kept Jacory Harris in check by not allowing the big throws downfield that Miami has used to pick apart other opponents. Around the rest of the ACC, Virginia lost to Georgia Tech, Wake Forest fell to Navy, Virginia Tech rattled off their fourth straight win, this time over Central Michigan, and NC St. bounced back from a tough loss to Va. Tech by beating up on Boston College, 44-17, showing off a more vintage Russell Wilson performance. In another big ACC game this week, North Carolina further buried Clemson in the conference race with a tough 21-16 win over the Tigers. They put the game away by milking 5 minutes off the clock with their 5-point lead, and gave the ball back to Clemson with only 13 seconds remaining. As their suspensions become more defined, the Tar Heels seem to be gaining confidence and focus on the field with their young team. While Virginia Tech and Miami seem more stocked with talent, UNC could be a pesky team in the Coastal divission that just won't go away. In the Atlantic, Clemson's 0-2 ACC start makes it seem more and more likely that the winner of the FSU-NC St. game will win the division.
ACC week 7 picks - Florida State over Boston College, North Carolina St. over East Carolina, Clemson over Maryland, Miami over Dukc, Georgia Tech over Middle Tennessee St., Virginia Tech over Wake Forest, North Carolina over Virginia
Week 7 outlook - There really aren't a whole lot of tough calls on the ACC slate this week, as none of the top teams play each other. FSU should continue to roll and Miami should bounce back in grand fashion over the Dukies. Georgia Tech is hard to rely on, but c'mon, they have to be better than MTSU. Clemson needs to avoid coming out flat after losing tough games to Auburn, Miami, and North Carolina in their last 3 contests, but they should be able to take Maryland down. If there was one game I could be wrong on, it is UNC-Virginia. Just as I start to trust in North Carolina as a strong team, I have to keep in mind that they are a very young team, one that may overlook the less than imposing Caaliers on the schedule. I doubt Butch Davis will let that happen, but that could be an interesting game if the Tar Heels don't put in full effort from the opening kick.
Big East -
As another week passes, it becomes clear that no one wants to stand up and take control of the Big Least. UConn looks great one week with new quarterback Cody Endres, then can't beat a Rutgers team that was starting freshman quarterback Chas Dodd thanks to an injury to starter Tom Savage. Dodd looked great in the game, but UConn struggled with their own passing game and clutch defense late in the game, surrendering 10 points in the final 4 minutes to lose this one. Wst Virginia and Cincinnati crushed their opponents last Saturday, but UNLV and Miami OH hardly qualify as quality wins. The margins were still impressive though. Pittsburgh came up short again, this time against Notre Dame after falling behind 17-3 by the half. Syracuse stunned South Florida in Tampa, matching their conference win total of each of the past four seasons at one. The big difference is that they are 1-0 this year, not 1-6. It is a surprise, but in the Big East, anything can happen. Louisville also made a statement last saturday by blanking a not-so-good Memphis team, 56-0. West Virginia and Cincy still appear to be the class of the league, with Cincy bouncing back from a slow start and WVU only having one defeat in their fairly weak schedule, and their head-to-head matchup should determine who gets a BCS bid.
Big East week 7 picks - West Virginia over South Florida, Cincinnati over Louisville, Pittsburgh over Syracuse, Rutgers over Army
Week 7 outlook - West Virginia has been the best team in the league so far, and South Florida has underperformed. It's hard to see the Bulls going into Morgantown and upending the Mountaineers, even if B.J. Daniels plays out of his mind. Cincy is finding their stride under new coach Butch Jones at just the right time as they get a Louisville team that is coming off easily its best game of the season. I think Collaros and the Bearcats go into Louisville and pick up the road win, but this could be a close one if the Cardinals continue to play the way they did against Memphis. Syracuse is off to a 4-1 overall start, their best since 1999, but the competition really hasn't been anything to mention, while Pitt has been out losing to Utah, Miami, and Notre Dame. I think Pitt finally breaks through and finds a win. their run game has been getting better as their offensive line gels, and Tino Sunseri looks like a real quarterback with the pressure eased off him by the ground game. I like Ray Graham and Dion Lewis to both find the end zone and Pitt to win by 3 touchdowns or more. Rutgers might get tested by Army, but if Chas Dodd is still under center, this offense will be tough for the Cadets to stop and I think the Scarlet Knights pick up the home victory.
Big 12 -
For the last few weeks I have touted this as a down year for the Big 12, but through 6 weeks of the season, there are still four undefeated Big 12 squads while no other league boasts more than two. Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State just keep on winning. While only one team can finish unbeaten in the league at the end of the season, a Big 12 title game between undefeated Nebraska and undefeated Oklahoma seems very plausible. Missouri has yet to play a road game, which diminishes their 5-0 start, and Oklahoma State just doesn't seem as good as Nebraska and Oklahoma. This thing will likely sort itself out over the next 3 weeks, as Nebraska plays Texas, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in succession, Oklahoma gets Missouri next week, and Oklahoma State follows up Nebraska with a game at 4-1 Kansas State. It should be a fun couple of weeks, but there won't be quite so many unbeaten Big 12 schools.
Big 12 week 7 picks - Kansas State over Kansas, Missouri over Texas A&M, Nebraska over Texas, Oklahoma State over Texas Tech, Baylor over Colorado, Oklahoma over Iowa State
Week 7 outlook - The Wildcats and Daniel Thomas should run all over Kansas on Thursday night. I expect K-State to win by at least 14 points. Missouri finally gets a road game, but they can't afford to be looking past A&M to Oklahoma and Nebraska. I think Blaine Gabbert does enough to keep the Aggies at bay. It is tough to pick Texas A&M when Jerrod Johnson insists on turning the ball over so much. Oklahoma should end their streak of playing close games with a thumping of the Cyclones in Norman. Baylor needs to shore up the defense to be able to go into the thin air of Colorado and beat the Buffs. Dan Hawkins is coaching for his job, and this appears to be one of the better teams he's had, but Robert Griffin will put the Bears on his back and carry them past Colorado. Oklahoma State is a tough team to pick, because this will likely be a close game with the Red Raiders. Tech finally started putting up some points against Baylor last week, and this one could be a shootout. OSU has shown the ability to win those games against Troy and Texas A&M, and they haven't been held short of 38 points yet. I think Brandon Weeden and Kendall Hunter keep the Cowpokes unblemished headed into their big clash with Nebraska next week. The Big 12 game of the week is between Nebraska and Texas in Lincoln. This would be a huge step for the Huskers in their search for a national title berth. Texas hasn't shown a good running game against anyone so far, and Nebraska isn't the team to turn that around against. If Texas can find a way to bottle up Taylor Martinez's option game and can make him throw the ball, they can hang around in this game. I expect this game to be won by the Nebraska blackshirt defense, and I don't expect a lot of points. Nebraska will not do to Texas what UCLA did, but they don't have to. They just have to win.
Big Ten -
Things are starting to get interesting at the top of the Big Ten. Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State remained unbeaten in conference play this past weekend, with Michigan State being very impressive in doing so. The Spartans went into Ann Arbor, into "The Big House," and dismantled Denard Robinson and the Wolverines. The 3-headed backfield monster that the Spartans employ struck in a big way as Le'Veon Bell, Edwin Baker, and Larry Caper all found paydirt, with both Bell and Baker doing so from long distance. The Michigan defense wasn't supposed to be good, but MSU found a way to stifle the offense at the right times too, twice intercepting Robinson deep in the red zone, once in the end zone, and held the explosive Wolverine attack to 17 points. Michigan didn't help themselves by throwing more than they ran, and by converting only 2-11 third downs. This week, 4 of the top 5 teams in the Big Ten standings square off against each other with Ohio State going to Madison to battle Wisconsin, and Iowa going to Ann Arbor to try to be the second consecutive team to go into The Big House and take down the Wolverines. The Spartans are definitely thinking Big Ten title at this point in the season, since they are undefeated and don't have to play Ohio State, but they could use a little help from the Badgers this weekend to give them a leg up on the Buckeyes. Penn State and Northwestern all but eliminated themselves from contention last week with embarrassing losses.
Big Ten week 7 picks - Indiana over Arkansas State, Michigan State over Illinois, Purdue over Minnesota, Iowa over Michigan, Wisconsin over Ohio State
Week 7 outlook - The Hoosiers should win easily. Michigan State should be able to handle Illinois, but the Illini have played pretty well the last two weeks. However, if they can bottle up Denard and the Wolverines, I don't expect Nate Scheelhaase, Mikel Leshoure and the Illini offense to do to the Spartans what they did to Penn State. Minnesota has gotten pretty good at finding ways to lose games, and I expect more of the same in West Lafayette as Tim Brewster's seat gets a little hotter. Iowa should have a similar gameplan against the Wolverines as Michigan State, but they really need to do a good job early in the game defensively. They have a potent running game led by Adam Robinson, but they do not have an offense that is good at playing from behind. Michigan moved the ball aginst MSU, but they did a great job of giving away scoring chances. If they can cash in on their scoring chances, they can pull the upset against the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to win, but this one could be close. In the Big Ten game of the week, The top-ranked Buckeyes will have their hands full in Madison. It will be hard for Terrelle Pryor to run effectively the way J.J. Watt gets after the quarterback, and the Buckeyes will have to lean on Daniel Herron and Brandon Saine on offense. When the Badgers have the ball, it will be thunder and lightning with John Clay and James White, not to mention tight end Lance Hendricks, who is a load. The atmosphere in Camp Randall Stadium will be rabid, and while Jim Tressel will have the Buckeyes ready for this, I still think the Badgers win a slugfest that is more their style than OSU's.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 got a little topsy-turvy in week 6. UCLA was routed by California after looking very good the previous few weeks. Washington followed up a huge upset win over USC with a crushing loss to Arizona State. USC followed up their upset loss by nearly stunning Stanford Saturday night. Unbeaten Arizona, meanwhile, went out and got dismantled by Ryan Katz and the Oregon State Beavers' passing attack in their first loss. Katz threw for 398 yards and 2 touchdowns in the game. The only Pac-10 team to do what they were supposed to was Oregon, who beat Wazzu by 20, but that was still less than people expected them to win by. Injuries to quarterback Darron Thomas and halfback Kenjon Barner slowed down the offense a little. Oregon and Stanford are still sitting pretty in this league, but this conference has been anything but predictable so far.
Pac-10 week 7 picks - Oregon State over Washington, Arizona over Washington State, USC over California
Week 7 outlook - Washington seems to do its worst work in Seattle, and Oregon State's only losses are to Boise and TCU. Katz is starting to show better decision-making and accuracy to go along with his cannon arm. Locker cannot win games by himself for the Huskies, so it's not too difficult to pick the Beavers to win this one. The Arizona pick requires little explanation. Eleven blind guys with one hand tied behind their backs might be able to beat Washington State, and Arizona has no blind or one-armed men. It should be an easy win. USC and Cal should be a toss-up. Not so long ago, this was the marquee Pac-10 game of the year. Aaron Rodgers and Cal taking on Matt Leinart and the Trojans. The Golden Bears very nearly pulled the upset a couple times. Now, it is merely an undercard. Both teams still want this one bad, and Cal seems to have found some offensive success last week, and USC looked pretty good in losing to Stanford. With all of that said, we've seen good USC more often than we've seen good Cal, and with the game in Pasadena, that's enough of an edge to pick the Trojans to win.
SEC -
The mighty kings of the SEC have fallen. I'm not just talking about Alabama, but Florida as well. The Gators lost back-to-back SEC games for the first time since September 29th and October 6th, 2007. It was the first time Florida and Alabama lost in the same weekend since September 29th, 2007, and it was the first game Alabama has lost other than a bowl game or SEC title game since November 27th, 2007. It has clearly been a while since these two programs were not dominating the SEC. Through six weeks, only LSU and Auburn remain undefeated and both have had their fair share of close calls. To make things more interesting, Auburn has 4-1 Arkansas coming to town this week. Florida's loss opens the door for South Carolina in the SEC East. The head-to-head meeting between the Gamecocks and Gators in Gainesville should determine the division winner if the Gators can avoid upsets against Mississippi State and Georgia. Alabama's loss makes the SEC West wide open. LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn can all now dream of an SEC title, but one of them has to take down the Tide to make it a reality. Arkansas is the only one who has already lost to Alabama, and they have to prove they can consistently win on the road to stay in contention. A trip to Auburn is a great place to start.
SEC week 7 picks - Georgia over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Arkansas, South Carolina over Kentucky, Florida over Mississippi State, LSU over McNeese State, Alabama over Ole Miss
Week 7 outlook - LSU likely won't need a miracle to defeat McNeese State. Alabama has an opponent that they should be able to take out some frustration over their loss on. Masoli and the Rebels are starting to piece things together, but Bama is just too good for them. Florida also will come out angry, but they need to be careful. Steve Sarkisian has had a lot of success against his old team USC since moving north to UW. It's safe to say that like Sarkisian, former Florida offensive coordinator and current Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen migh have a good grasp of what his old team will try to do. If Florida isn't prepared here, they could have a close one on their hands. Georgia seems to be straightened out with AJ Green back on the field, and another win over Vanderbilt should happen. South Carolina needs to not let up against Kentucky, who has played very well against some good teams, or they could hand control of the division back to Florida. The big game this week is between Auburn and Arkansas. The Razorbacks have one of the best passing attacks in the country, but I still don't totally trust Ryan Mallett on the road with the game on the line. Cam Newton, on the other hand, has done everything he can do to will Auburn to their undefeated start. His toughness, and a better Auburn defense than Arkansas defense will be keys to a Tiger win at home.
Best of the Rest -
TCU and Boise State continue to keep on rolling with blowout wins. TCU hasn't given up a point in their last two games. Utah steamrolled Iowa State, and Nevada and Air Force were easy winners as well to keep the big matchups in tact for the BCS busters. Southern Miss was upended by East Carolina by one point in a shootout to open up the C-USA race once again. ECU, UCF, Houston, and SMU are all undefeated in league play, and it's tough to guess which will come out on top. Nothern Illinois placed themselves in the driver's seat in the MAC with a win over Temple, but a rematch in the conference title game is a possibility.
Other week 7 picks - TCU over BYU, Boise State over San Jose State, Notre Dame over Western Michigan, Nevada over Hawaii, Air Force over San Diego State, Central Michigan over Miami OH, Ball State over Eastern Michigan, Temple over Bowling Green, Ohio over Akron, UNLV over Colorado State, Houston over Rice, Northern Illinois over Buffalo, Navy over SMU, UTEP over UAB, Louisiana Tech over Idaho, Utah over Wyoming, Western Kentucky over UL Monroe, Tulane over Tulsa, Toledo over Kent St., Troy over UL Lafayette, FIU over North Texas, Fresno State over New Mexico State
Week 7 outlook - BYU will likely score a few points against TCU, but the Horned Frogs should win easily, as should Boise State and Utah. Temple and NIU should win easily to stay atop the MAC heap. Air Force will have a challenge with SDSU, who can score in bunches. Nevada will have to do a good job against the pass, as they go into Honolulu to take on Hawaii. A win is crucial, but Hawaii could be tough.
Conference power rankings -
1. SEC - Things are not as good as they were a week ago, but the cream of the Pac-10 struggled this week as well.
2. Big Ten - The toughness of the top Big Ten teams shows in their consistency. Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State are all as tough as they come.
3. Pac-10 - Too much inconsistency at the top as Arizona goes down and Stanford gets a scare, but Oregon still the scariest team around.
4. Big 12 - Moves back ahead of the ACC as their 4 unbeatens trump the upper crust of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
5. ACC - Miami loss hurts, but Florida State and North Carolina take big steps forward this week
6. Mountain West - Big 3 of TCU, Utah, and Air Force seem to get better each week.
7. WAC - Boise and Nevada are still the key here, but Fresno and Hawaii continue to be solid as well
8. Conference USA - There has simply been more consistency here than in the Big East, despite less talent.
9. Big East - If WVU and Cincy continue to win, and Pitt starts to find its legs, they can start to climb the list
10. MAC - The strong play of Northern Illinois gives the league some credibility
11. Sun Belt - Only Troy seems worthy of a possible bowl game
My Top 25 -
1. Oregon (prev. 2)
2. Ohio State (3)
3. TCU (4)
4. Boise State (5)
5. Nebraska (6)
6. Oklahoma (7)
7. Auburn (9)
8. Alabama (1)
9. Iowa (10)
10. Utah (11)
11. LSU (12)
12. Michigan State (15)
13. Arkansas (18)
14. South Carolina (20)
15. Stanford (13)
16. Wisconsin (21)
17. Arizona (8)
18. Nevada (19)
19. Oklahoma State (22)
20. Florida State (UNR)
21. Florida (14)
22. Air Force (25)
23. Missouri (UNR)
24. North Carolina State (UNR)
25. Michigan (17)
Dropped from rankings - Miami FL (16), Kansas State (23), and Northwestern (24)
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