Week 4 of a very exciting college football season is in the books, and there is a lot to talk about. There were several big games on the slate, and almost all of them delivered big time drama and great football. This week, I actually learned the most from the things I was wrong about. For starters, I thought Mack Brown was too smart a coach to let the Longhorns get beaten by UCLA. All he had to do was bottle up UCLA's run game and get Texas's ground game going. Judging by the 264 rush yards UCLA put up compared with the 85 that Texas put up, Mack Brown did not heed my advice, and has a 34-12 loss to show for it. Auburn showed some more resiliency, coming back from down 20-7 to win yet again, this time over South Carolina. They showed more than just an ability to come back on the scoreboard. They have been in a handful of knockdown, drag out physical brawls, and they keep coming back the next week for another one, and they keep winning them. Marcus Lattimore was physical as always, but he lacks the quickness to be a top notch running back in the SEC. The defenses are beating him to the hole, and no amount of physicality will beat an SEC gang tackle. It didn't help that South Carolina got away from the running game in the second half. Lattimore had 3 carries in the second half, compared with 14 in the first half, and the Gamecocks were ahead for a good portion of the second half. Stanford is one team that I was way off on. They did more than enough to bottle up Notre Dame's balanced offense, and although Notre Dame didn't allow Andrew Luck to light them up (he was 19-32 for 238 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks), Stanford ran the ball down their throats for the majority of the second half. They are one of the few teams left in the country that will line up with a fullback and tight end and just run right at you. Coach Jim Harbaugh has instilled a mean streak in this team, and they flat out intimidate people. No player demonstrates those qualities better than fullback/linebacker Owen Marecic. Marecic scored on pretty much consecutive plays from scrimmage with a short touchdown run as a fullback, and then an interception return for a TD as a linebacker. That power football that Stanford played resulted in a 13 minute advantage in time of possession and a dominant 37-14 final score. The other big game of the week was between Alabama and Arkansas. I was way off on the numbers that Ryan Mallett would put up, but the Alabama secondary came through when it needed to with 2 late interceptions to help lead to a 24-20 comeback victory. Mark Ingram was back to being the same player who won the Heisman last season, and Alabama may not have won by 10 points like I said, but they really took the game over in the second half. Now lets take a look at the conference races and how they shape up.
ACC -
Things are starting to sort themselves out in the ACC. The biggest surprise of week 4 came in North Carolina St. thumping Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Saturday. Georgia Tech's offense really isn't built to play catch-up, and Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack got off to a fast start and never looked back. Josh Nesbitt isn't an accurate passer in general, and every time the Yellow Jackets got within striking distance, Wilson and the offense would go down the field and put the lead back to a safe margin. Russell Wilson is in his fourth year as the starting qb at NC St., and that experience has shown on the field. The Wolfpack are now my frontrunner in the Atlantic division of the ACC. Florida St. thumped Wake Forest as expected, even if they didn't put up the 50 points I predicted. I believe 31-0 is convincing enough. FSU and Clemson look like the only legitimate competition for the Wolfpack in the division, but NC St. is my pick for now. Virginia Tech has continued to restore the order to the Coastal division with a 19-0 win over Boston College. Miami continued to look very stong with an easy win over Pittsburgh on Thursday night. The Coastal division looks like a two team race between the Hokies and the Hurricanes, and I feel like their meeting on Nov. 20th will likely decide the division. Georgia Tech at 1-1 in ACC play isn't out of the discussion yet, and North Carolina could still make some noise as well after finally picking up a win over Rutgers this past weekend. They do, however, have to play each of the top 3 Atlantic teams this season.
Week 5 ACC picks - North Carolina over East Carolina, Georgia Tech over Wake Forest, Notre Dame over Boston College, Florida State over Virginia, Maryland over Duke, Miami over Clemson, Virginia Tech over North Carolina St.
Week 5 outlook - Most of these picks seem kind of obvious to me. Wake Forest and Duke have been very bad and are easy to pick against. UNC is getting their legs under them finally, and will be prepared for ECU and should get to 2-2. Florida St. should have little trouble with the Cavaliers, and Notre Dame finally gets a weak opponent and should be able to take down BC by at least 2 scores. The other two games are doosies. Miami and Clemson have gone to overtime in each of the previous 3 meetings since Miami joined the ACC. Clemson has a very solid run offense, and Miami struggled a little bit to stop Dion Lewis's backup in the second half last week against Pitt. Throw in the fact that Clemson has had two weeks to prepare for this team and Jacory Harris's penchant for throwing picks, and all the ingredients are there for Clemson to pull the upset. I still don't think they will. I think Miami goes into Death Valley and continues to play stellar team defense and keeps Clemson guessing just enough on when they're on defense to win by a touchdown, and I don't think it will take overtime this week. After heaping praise on Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack a moment ago, I have to pick against them with the big bad Hokies coming to town. Virginia Tech is the most talented team in this matchup, and they are quickly gaining steam. NC St. seems to be approaching their 4-0 start with a humble attitude, and I don't think they will be intimidated by VT, but I think the Hokies win this one close.
Big East -
Outside of Cincinnati putting up a fight and nearly beating the Oklahoma Sooners, no one in the Big Least showed any signs of life this past weekend. Rutgers and West Virginia were the last remaining unbeatens in the league, and both were defeated this past weekend. Rutgers played a decent game against 0-2 North Carolina but came up short. West Virginia failed to defeat LSU despite the Tigers lack of a passing game. LSU won on defense and special teams, and they held Noel Devine to 37 yards rushing. Pittsburgh also looked terrible this week in losing by 4 touchdowns to Miami. They demonstrated yet again that their offensive line is terrible, and they are getting no consistency out of qb Tino Sunseri. The d-line struggled to generate much pressure when a four man rush was employed, so they had to blitz to get after Jacory Harris. Unfortunately for the Panthers, Harris is a better passer against the blitz. Cincy really showed that their season is far from over in pushing a solid Oklahoma team to the limit. If not for a muffed punt, the Bearcats really might have won the game. Through 4 weeks, every team in the Big East is 0-0 in conference play, so nothing is decided yet. West Virginia has to still be considered the favorite, with only Cincinnati, Rutgers and possibly South Florida as other contenders.
Week 5 Big East picks - Vanderbilt over UConn, Rutgers over Tulane, Pittsburgh over Florida International, South Florida over Florida Atlantic, Louisville over Arkansas State
Week 5 outlook - Finally a week where the Big East should win most of their games. UConn is the one Big East team I expect to see lose this week. A quarterback switch from Zac Frazier to Cody Endres will not make the Huskies better. I expect their offense to struggle, especially if Jordan Todman can't go again, and Vanderbilt to take them down. Rutgers, Louisville, and South Florida don't require much explantion this week. Pitt, however, gets an FIU team that has lost tough games against Maryland and Texas A&M the last two weeks. Pittsburgh has struggled this season, but their defense is better than that of Maryland, and Dion Lewis should finally get rolling against a defense that gave up over 40 points to an average Maryland team last week. I expect the Panthers from Pitt to win by a couple of scores.
Big 12 - If last week taught us anything about the Big 12, it's that the conference is mired in a very bad down year, especially for the traditional powerhouses. The Big 12 is at best the 4th best conference in the country, which signals a big fall for a conference that has put a team in 7 of the 12 BCS National Championship games, including the last 2. Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are the 3 teams that have represented the league in that game, and all 3 had a rough week 4. This is the worst Texas team since Colt McCoy's freshman season, and the way they got dismantled by UCLA despite giving up fewer than 30 passing yards shows it. Rick Neuheisel is known as a quarterback guru, and UCLA ran the ball all over Texas last week. That just should not happen. Oklahoma narrowly escaped an upset at the hands of the Cincinnati Bearcats after recovering a muffed punt to set up the game-winning score. Oklahoma has made a bad habit so far this season of letting big underdogs hang around, beating Air Force, Utah State, and now Cincinnati all by 7 points or less. It really makes the FSU game look like an aberration. The other powerhouse in the Big 12 failed to throttle South Dakota State. A week after putting up over 50 points on Washington in Seattle, they came back home to only win 17-3 against a team that they should have run out of the building. The Huskers get the win, but not an impressive showing. Oklahoma and Nebraska clearly still look like the favorites to win their divisions, but there are a handful of unbeatens who would love to challenge. Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in the South along with Missouri and Kansas State in the North are all still unbeaten overall, and Baylor is unbeaten in league play and could be a factor as well. Conference play heats up this week.
Week 5 Big 12 picks - Oklahoma St. over Texas A&M, Baylor over Kansas, Oklahoma over Texas, Texas Tech over Iowa St., Georgia over Colorado
Week 5 outlook - Texas Tech seems an easy pick against ISU, who may be the worst team in the Big 12. Baylor is better than the Jayhawks, but this Jekyll and Hyde Kansas team might just surprise them. I expect Robert Griffin III and the Bears to be able to hold them off. Georgia gets AJ Green back this week and it could not come at a better time. The Buffs are playing solid football, and Georgia is no lock to beat them. Aaron Murray must play better this week for the Bulldogs to be victorious, but with all the talk about Mark Richt's job status, I think Georgia pulls this one out. Oklahoma State and Texas A&M should be a heck of a game on Thursday night. Kendall Hunter's speed and elusiveness will be the biggest factor when the Cowboys have the ball, and Jerrod Johnson has yet to live up to the hype of being one of the best qb's in the Big 12. I think the Cowboys win close. The biggest game of the Big 12 schedule every season is the Red River Shootout between Oklahoma and Texas and this year is no exception, especially in the South division. It looks like the Sooners are the stronger team this season. If they learn from what the Bruins did last weekend, the gameplan on offense will revolve around DeMarco Murray. The Sooners should be able to run the ball very effectively, and they need to be ballhawks on defense when Garrett Gilbert throws the ball. UCLA forced 5 turnovers against the Longhorns, and Oklahoma should try to do the same. I think Texas will play much better than they did against the Bruins, but Garrett Gilbert still just doesn't seem to get it, and Oklahoma has played its best football in the biggest games. Look for the Sooners to win by around 10 points.
Big Ten -
Week 4 didn't teach us a whole lot about the Big Ten as it's hard to learn anything from a bunch of blowouts over bad teams. Ohio St., Michigan St., Wisconsin and Iowa won easy games. Purdue was terrible in losing to Toledo. Michigan made sure to not take Bowling Green lightly and dropped 65 points on the Falcons with Denard Robinson sidelined for much of the game. Penn State leaned on Evan Royster the way they needed to, but struggled to finish off drives and only scored one TD in the win over Temple. They had to settle for 5 field goals, continuing to show that Penn State is not the powerhouse that they were expected to be entering the season. If Bernard Pierce hadn't gotten hurt, Temple might have been able to win the game. Northwestern stayed unbeaten after a tight game with Central Michigan, and may have a clear path to 6-0 with Purdue and Minnesota in their next 2 games. Conference play starts this week, and we might finally get some real answers about who the best teams in the Big Ten are.
Big Ten Week 5 picks - Northwestern over Minnesota, Ohio St. over Illinois, Michigan over Indiana, Michigan St. over Wisconsin, Iowa over Penn State
Week 5 outlook - Ohio State should win easily, but none of the other games are guarantees. Minnesota just hasn't looked sharp so far this season, and Northwestern keeps finding ways to win, and I see those trends continuing this week with the Wildcats winning in Minnesota. Michigan looks very difficult to stop on offense, with or without Denard Robinson on the field, but it looks like he will start this week. Ben Chappell has been solid for the Hoosiers so far, but Michigan will manage to outscore Indiana in this one. I expect both teams to put up decent point totals, but the Wolverines to win by 2 scores. Iowa will take it to Penn St. If the Nttany Lions thought Bernard Pierce was tough to stop, wait til they get a load of Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton. The Hawkeyes will stack the box against Royster and the running game and will make freshman qb Rob Bolden beat them with his arm. He won't be able to do it. I expect Iowa to win in a walk. It won't be a close game. The best Big Ten game of the week will be between the Badgers and Spartans in East Lansing. The Spartans are underdogs at home, but that suits them just fine. They've been very impressive in their 4-0 start, and having the home crowd and Mark Dantonio back in the coach's box will be huge lifts for this team. They will load up against Clay and the running game make Scott Tolzien beat them with his arm. Tolzien is a decent quarterback, but Wisconsin hasn't been quite as sharp in their overall execution as the Spartans this year, and this is the toughest road environment they have seen yet. I expect the Spartans to come out on top.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 had a banner Saturday this past weekend. UCLA went into Austin and throttled the Texas Longhorns who were ranked in the top 10. Stanford was the big winner in the other marquee non-conference game for the league as they stomped Notre Dame into the ground in South Bend. Oregon State came up short against Boise, but no one really expected them to win, and many people expected them to get destroyed. They did hold their own, and will likely be ok against the Pac-10. Through 4 weeks, Oregon, Stanford, USC, and Arizona are all still undefeated, and UCLA has shown signs of life beating back-to-back ranked opponents. Oregon struggled against Arizona St., but took advantage of 7 Sun Devil turnovers to win by 11, despite being outgained by almost 200 yards. The schedule heats up this week, with the biggest conference game of the year set for Saturday night.
Pac-10 week 5 picks - UCLA over Washington St., USC over Washington, Oregon St. over Arizona St., Stanford over Oregon
Week 5 outlook - UCLA gets the worst team in the Pac-10 this week and should destroy Wazzu in LA. It should be a good opportunity for Kevin Prince to work on his passing skills in an actual game, because those skills have not been good thus far. UCLA wins by a lot. USC should be able to beat Washington pretty easily, but Locker and the Huskies took the Trojans down last year, and USC cannot sleep on this UW team. Arizona St. and Oregon St. should play a fantastic game Saturday evening. Arizona St. has actually been pretty good in their two losses. They gained nearly 600 yards against Oregon, but turned the ball over 7 times. They only lost to Wisconsin by one point, but had an extra point blocked and ended the first half with a kickoff return stopped at the one-yard line. ASU could be 4-0 without the miscues and bad luck, but Oregon St. is battle tested as well. The Rodgers brothers are just waiting to get loose, and I think this is the week they do it if James is able to play. The game is in Corvallis, and the Beavers are desperate for the win, and I think they get it done against ASU. The Pac-10 game of the year is Saturday night between Stanford and Oregon. Oregon has had the best offense in the country so far, scoring seemingly at will against their first four opponents. Stanford is not their first four opponents. The Cardinal will do everything in their power to keep that Duck offense off the field, and will control time of possession with a power running game. Oregon will have to score just about every time they have the football, because they won't have it much. this is a great matchup to watch because of the contrast in style. Stanford is a hard-hitting, physically intimidating team who plays with a mean streak. Oregon is a team that is driven by speed and misdirection, but the kids from Stanford are smart and well-coached. They swarm to the ball, and put your face in the dirt on the tackle. If Oregon as a team is soft at all, Stanford will beat them. I believe that this game comes down to the end, but I think the power of Stanford beats the speed of Oregon. If Oregon wins this game, however, I think the path to the National Championship Game is clear.
SEC -
No conference had more to talk about after week 4 than the SEC. There were a few big games within the league, and a few more this week. For starters, let me just say welcome back to the national title conversation Florida Gators. They have found their running quarterback in Trey Burton. The team's offense is reminiscent of Tim Tebow's freshman year in which Chris Leak was the regular qb, but Tebow was the guy they would call on at the goal line to score touchdowns. Trey Burton scored 6 touchdowns against Kentucky on Saturday. This team had the defense to be champs, but now their offense is catching up. Florida is now the clear frontrunner in the SEC East. Tennessee is not the quite ready for the top half of the division after blowing a 16-point lead against UAB before winning in double overtime. Kentucky was looking good until playing Florida. South Carolina may be the best Gamecock team Spurrier has had, but they still don't measure up to Florida. They played well against Auburn for the first 3 quarters, but the decision to pull Stephen Garcia in that game may be the biggest coaching mistake Spurrier has made in years. Auburn and LSU scored huge wins for their seasons, but both continued to show cracks. Auburn cannot continue to fall behind and comeback. That sort of play will not work against LSU or Bama. LSU has to find a passing game. Jordan Jefferson might not be the best qb on the roster if he cant throw for 100 yards in a game. 419 passing yards through 4 games isn't gonna cut it against Bama who can stack the line of scrimmage and shut down the run. It may be time for a switch to Jarrett Lee. Alabama survived a real scare from Arkansas last Saturday afternoon, as they trailed 20-7 before scoring the game's final 17 points. Ryan Mallett was fantastic early, but two late interceptions were the undoing of the Hogs in the biggest game on their schedule. Bama's schedule doesn't get any easier this week with Florida calling on Saturday.
SEC Week 5 picks - Auburn over UL Monroe, Vanderbilt over UConn, Kentucky over Ole Miss, Mississippi St. over Alcorn St., LSU over Tennessee, Georgia over Colorado, Florida over Alabama
Week 5 outlook - Auburn and Miss. St. should win easily this week. Auburn needs a break from the brutal schedule they've played so far and gets it. Tennessee shouldn't be too much trouble for LSU, but if they can stop the run, they could have a chance. Vanderbilt will make Cody Endres's first start one to forget, and the Commodores will pull the minor upset. The return of AJ Green will be the biggest factor in a Georgia win over Colorado. Then, in the game of the week, Florida will pull off the shocker in Tuscaloosa. Florida is certainly a better team than Arkansas, even if they don't have Ryan Mallett. They have an elite defense, and they were destroying people when their offense wasn't clicking. Mike Pouncey has fixed his snapping issues, and the addition of Trey Burton in the running game is just the x-factor the Gators need to keep Alabama guessing. Greg McElroy finally loses a game as a starter, and Florida jumps into the top 3 in the polls with a win.
Best of the Rest - With their win over Oregon State, the path to an undefeated showdown with Nevada is clearly in place, and the Broncos need to beat a ranked Wolf Pack team. Fresno State and Utah State have taken steps backward with losses this past weekend, and Boise needs a big win somewhere on their schedule to stay ahead of TCU in the polls. The Mountain West is stronger than the WAC, with SDSU, Air Force, and Utah all playing impressive football so far. As long as Bernard Pierce is ok, the Temple Owls are still the MAC favorite despite a loss to Penn St. CMU looks like the best other MAC team with Toledo also playing well. Notre Dame appears to be on the Hawaii Bowl plan again in Brian Kelly's first season as coach after a 1-3 start. 7-5 appears to be a best-case scenario at this point for the Irish.
Other Week 5 picks - BYU over Utah St., Temple over Army, TCU over Colorado St., Ohio over Eastern Michigan, Miami OH over Kent St., Air Force over Navy, Western Michigan over Idaho, Bowling Green over Buffalo, Central Michigan over Ball St., UTEP over New Mexico, Northern Illinois over Akron, Tulsa over Memphis, SMU over Rice, Toledo over Wyoming, Boise St. over New Mexico St., Southern Miss over Marshall, Nevada over UNLV, Hawaii over Louisiana Tech
Conference Power Rankings
1. SEC - Still cream of the crop
2. Pac-10 - Big wins by Stanford and UCLA keep them at no. 2
3. Big Ten - Hard to lose ground when you don't play anyone
4. Big 12 - Top 3 all struggled, keeping them below Big Ten
5. ACC - NC St. gives league hope beyond early favorites
6. Mountain West - Top 4 in MWC can compete with a couple of power conferences
7. WAC - Boise and Nevada carry the flag, and both are better than all Big East teams
8. Big East - Still the laughingstock of the AQ conferences
9. C-USA - Southern Miss and UTEP keep winning, and SMU put up solid fight vs. TCU
10. MAC - Not a lot of positives outside of Temple
11. Sun Belt - Still no explanation
National Top 25
1. Alabama (prev. 1)
2. Ohio St. (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. TCU (4)
5. Boise St. (6)
6. Florida (8)
7. Stanford (9)
8. Nebraska (5)
9. Oklahoma (7)
10. Arizona (11)
11. Auburn (12)
12. LSU (14)
13. Iowa (16)
14. Utah (17)
15. Wisconsin (15)
16. Michigan (19)
17. Michigan St. (21)
18. Miami FL (22)
19. South Carolina (13)
20. Arkansas (18)
21. Texas (10)
22. Nevada (23)
23. North Carolina St. (UNR)
24. USC (UNR)
25. Texas A&M (24)
Dropped from Rankings - West Virginia (20) and Northwestern (25)
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