So I recently watched a Jason Statham film called "Chaos," and it got me thinking about college football. I know it sounds weird but hear me out. In the movie, the Chaos Theory is explained by saying that even when a group of set variables seem to create results that are completely random, unexplainable and "chaotic," eventually a pattern emerges that makes sense. While the movie gives a very crude description of a very complex theory, that description seems to tie into this college football season a great deal. Who would have expected Texas to get blown out by UCLA, take down a powerhouse Nebraska team in Lincoln two weeks later, then lose to Iowa State the following week? Probably no one. Or how about Kansas losing to a mediocre FCS team by a 6-3 score and then toppling a ranked Georgia Tech team the following week? Totally random. Or better yet, how are Michigan State and Missouri still unbeaten at this stage of the season? Totally unexpected. According to the theory, the season will solve its own mystery. Things will sort themselves out and the pattern will become clear. Until then I guess we just revel in the chaos. So now let's take a look around the country and see what patterns are emerging.
ACC -
Now that conference play has gotten going, the traditional ACC powers are rising back to the top. Virginia Tech opened the season with tough back-to-back losses to Boise Sate and James Madison, but have since rebounded to win 6 straight, including 4 in the ACC. They've taken control of the coastal division to date, and most of the others aren't exactly nipping at their heels. Geogia Tech's loss to Clemson is a huge blow that drops them to two games back of the Hokies. Miami is the only team within striking distance after dealing a big loss to North Carolina on Saturday. It was Jacory Harris's best game of the year, and it leaves the Hurricanes just a game behind VT. If they can avoid a big upset and take care of Georgia Tech, the 'Canes will get Va Tech at home with the division on the line. The loss for North Carolina was a huge setback for a team that was gaining steam, as they are now two games back along with GT. Meanwhile, in the atlantic, Florida State struggled out of the gate with a blowout loss to Oklahoma in the non-conference, but they responded by starting league play 4-0. Any doubts about if the 'Noles were for real were answered when they blew out Miami. As for their competition, Clemson's losses to Miami and North Carolina from the coastal division has them fighting an uphill battle two games back. Maryland is just a game back after padding the non-conference with cupcakes and and having very backloaded league schedule, but losses to NC State, Florida State and Miami should expose the Terps as the season wears on. The only team with a real shot to unseat the 'Noles is NC State. The Wolfpack have only fallen to Va Tech in conference, and draw FSU at home this Thursday. Both teams have had a week and a half to get ready for this game, and Russell Wilson and the Pack are likely still steaming after a poor performance in a close loss to East Carolina. They will get a big time opponent to take those frustrations out on this week in a game with big division title implications.
ACC week 9 picks - NC State over Florida State, Clemson over Boston College, Miami over Virginia, Maryland over Wake Forest, Navy over Duke, North Carolina over William & Mary
Week 9 outlook - Duke hardly needs a reason to lose these days, and Navy is absolutely rolling after dismantling the Fighting Irish. They should continue to roll over the Dukies' light resistance. Miami should manhandle Virginia. Maryland will eventually start losing, but not before they get bowl eligible against Wake Forest and that putrid defense. Even the Dukies dropped 48 on the Deacs this year. Boston College continues to struggle to find an offensive identity as the defense keeps them in game after game. Mark Herzlich has been great, and this team has nearly broken through into the conferene win column each of the last two weeks against Florida State and Maryland. Unfortunately, they won't break through this week against Clemson. The Tigers are getting it together and even good defenses have a hard time slowing down Andre Ellington. North Carolina draws a 6-1 FCS school this weekend in William & Mary, but don't be fooled by the record. They have played mostly colse games and their one loss was to UMass. Expect UNC to roll. I actually like NC State to pull the upset against the 'Noles this Thursday. FSU quarterback Christian Ponder is ailing with a bruised triceps in his throwing shoulder, a ruptured bursa sac in his elbow, and a bad contusion on his leg. He says he's fine, but anyone who watched him against BC can tell you it bothered him. He turned the ball over four times in that contest. He can't afford those mistakes against a team that can move the ball coming off those turnovers. The Wolfpack has had an electric passing game for much of the season led by Russell Wilson. He has struggled in the teams two losses, but he hasn't played consecutive bad games all year. FSU must attempt to fluster Wilson with the blitz, and Wilson needs to do a better job using his legs to beat it and bring it down and run. He is far too athletic to be putting up less than 30 yards rushing per game. If Christian Ponder is even slightly off his game due to injuries, and NC State is ready for the blitz and handles it well, I really expect the Pack to come out on top.
Big East -
If there is any single conference that best demonstrates chaos at work in college football so far, it's the Big Least. Every time you think you have a bead on which direction a team is headed, they either surprise you with a big, unexpected win, or they completely lay an egg. The Syracuse Orange turned around after getting pasted by Pitt two weeks ago to take down the only ranked team in the league, the West Virginia Moutaineers. The win sent shockwaves through the league, and the Orange pulled within two wins of bowl eligibility just one week after I badly bashed them in this blog. That's the repayment I get. Syracuse doesn't do anything spectacular, and they don't boast a ton of talent, but they execute well on both sides of the ball, they dont turn the ball over, and they limit the opponents' big plays on defense. That's a formula for successs at any level. On the flip side of the coin, just when it appeared that all was well in Cincy and that they had recovered from the hangover from coach Brian Kelly's departure, They get thrashed by what had been a very inept South Florida team last Friday. The Bearcat offense seemed to be clicking before this game, but it was the defense that really disappointed. South Florida had only topped 30 points twice all year, once against Stony Brook, and once against Florida Atlantic, so the 38 they dropped on Cincy had to be alarming. It's just another wild, unexpected result in the Big East. There is no Big East result that would be surprising anymore. Last place UConn could take down first place Pittsburgh, and no one would blink. It's just that sort of league this year. Unfortunately, that sort of league has no team in the top 25, but hey, at least they are still guaranteed a BCS bowl berth for the champion. (Ridiculous)
Big East week 9 picks - West Virginia over UConn, Pittsburgh over Louisville, Cincinnati over Syracuse
Week 9 outlook - West Virginia should rebound nicely after their stunning week 8 loss. UConn will focus on stopping Noel Devine, but WVU should find enough points to top a UConn team that couldn't score against Louisville. It appears the Huskies will do the smart thing and go back to original starting quarterback Zach Frazer and not third-stringer Michael Box who struggled mightily against the Cardinals. It likely won't be enough against a strong WVU defense. Louisville is really starting to find it's stride and really could wind up in a decent bowl game this year, but Pittsburgh has been just too good of late to expect the L'ville win. The ground game has been fantastic and I really believe the Panthers have worked out the o-line kinks that plagued them in September. I like Pitt by 10+ points. The two teams in the third matchup were the big surprises of last week. I think Cincy rebounds as they have been better offensively than West Virginia. I expect them to stack the box aginst 'Cuse and really slow down the Orange. As long as they can put up 20 or more points, I like Cincy. If Zach Collaros doesn't play, however, this one could be very interesting.
Big 12 -
Even though the Big 12 is not the jumbled mess that the Big East is at this point, this past weekend was still a lot of fun. Th teams with the four best overall records in the league all faced off head-to-head on Saturday, and the last unbeaten Big 12 team is Missouri. The Tigers gave Oklahoma a very rude welcome into Columbia by taking the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and never looked back. The Sooners constantly beat themselves with turnovers at crucial times in the game. They also didn't do a great job of slowing down the Tigers' offense. In the other big game, Nebraska won a high scoring shootout with Oklahoma State, 51-41. The Pokes stayed in the game for most of the way, but Taylor Martinez's five touchdown passes were just too much. Around the rest of the league, Iowa State stunned a Texas team that expected to win just by showing up, Texas A&M officially annointed Kansas as the new conference punching bag, and Baylor got bowl eligible for the first time in 16 years with a shootout win over Kansas State in which the Bears rolled up almost 700 yards of total offense. The Bears are now in first place in the south at 3-1 in conference play while Oklahoma and OK State are both 2-1. The north still looks like it will come down to this weekend's clash between Nebraska and Missouri, while the south has now opened up a bit.
Big 12 week 9 picks - Oklahoma State over Kansas State, Iowa State over Kansas, Texas A&M over Texas Tech, Texas over Baylor, Oklahoma over Colorado, Nebraska over Missouri
Week 9 outlook - Justin Blackmon likely will not play after a DUI arrest this week, and the Cowboys may struggle to stop Daniel Thomas and K-State's running game, but somehow I still like the Cowboys to win this game. Kendall Hunter went for 200 yards against the blackshirts a week ago, and another big game should be coming this week. Brandon Weeden may struggle just a little to throw without Blackmon out there, but he he will find a way to put up points. This offense is explosive and Baylor showed that this D can be torched a week ago. Iowa State will get within a win of a possible bowl berth by beating Kansas this week unless the Jayhawk team that beat Georgia Tech shows up. Texas A&M has all the pieces for an explosive offense if they can just stop shooting themselves in the foot. I think they do that in a win over the Red Raiders. Texas probably got a huge wake-up call with a home loss to Iowa State this past Saturday, but who knows. They didn't exactly turn around after losing to UCLA. Baylor is a very strong offensive team, but when Texas is focused, they can shut down any offense. I think the Longhorns are focused in this one, and bounce back from a bad loss with a big win. Dan Hawkins will inch closer to the unemployment line by getting throttled by Oklahoma. The Sooners have a sour taste in their mouths after a bad loss to Mizzou in which they just didn't execute. They will clean that taste out with a blowout of the Buffaloes. In the big showdown in Lincoln, I feel another unbeaten is going down. T-Magic got his groove back against OK State, and Missouri has a habit of losing when everything seems to be going great. The Tigers were undefeated in 2007 before losing to Oklahoma in a huge game, and then climbed to number one in the nation before falling again to the Sooners in the Big 12 Championship. Now, they finally get over the OU hump, and they run into Nebraska the following week. OU came to them in Columbia. They go into Lincoln and the "Sea of Red" this week, and the 'Huskers wll be ready for them. Nebraska's blackshirts showed some holes last week, but I think they will close them up iin time for this showdown, and Missouri will finally come out on the losing end. I think the Cornhuskers win by at least a touchdown.
Big Ten -
The biggest shake-up in the Big Ten this past week came when Wisconsin held off Iowa for a one point win to take over second place in the league behind Michigan State. The Spartans remained unbeaten after falling behind by 17 against Northwestern early, but playing the same gutsy football they have all year to come back. MSU gets their final big test this weekend against Iowa, and after that should be a big favorite in their remaining games. Iowa still has only one league loss, and can jump back into the discussion with a win over the Spartans, but they do still face Ohio State later this season. The Badgers and Buckeyes are knotted with them at 1 Big Ten loss. The rest of the season should sort this out, but the lack of a round robin schedule could make picking an automatic BCS team dicey if they all have a loss.
Big Ten week 9 picks - Northwestern over Indiana, Illinois over Purdue, Ohio State over Minnesota, Michigan over Penn State, Iowa over Michigan State
Week 9 outlook - The Wildcats are a little disappointed after the tough loss a week ago, but they can't let it affect their play against an Indiana team that can really throw the ball with qb Ben Chappell and wideout Tandon Doss. Indiana struggles to defend the run, and Dan Persa must be willing to run all over these guys to make sure the Wildcats don't let a winnable game get away. Purdue should go down badly again this week. Illinois has been a real surprise in the Big Ten, and they should easily handle the Boilers. Ohio State should win by at least 30 over the Golden Gophers. Michigan versus Penn State will be a very interesting matchup on Saturday. Penn State has had trouble with all kinds of different offenses this season, but the one they've had the most trouble with has been their own. Michigan has to keep Evan Royster bottled up and force Rob Bolden into third and long situations, and then harrass him when they do. This is a real chance for the Michigan defense to play a good game. Denard and the offense will move the ball as always, and they need to cash in on scoring chances as always. But on defense, they have to be a little less agressive and block off the cutback lanes for Evan Royster to run through. If they do that, they will put Bolden in plenty of tough spots, and they'll win this game. Michigan State and Iowa should be an epic game of wills. These teams play smashmouth football at it's finest, and it really will come down to who wants it more. The Spartans have to believe that they can be a national championship team if they want to have the swagger to knock Iowa around. This is a program that is not used to a national spotlight, and if they win this game and a couple other unbeatens fall, they will have that spotlight glaring at them. Iowa will come at MSU with Adam Robinson and a respectable passing attack led by veteran qb Ricky Stanzi and standout receiver Darrell Johnson-Koulianos. The Hawkeyes are coming off a home loss, and they rarely drop two in a row at home. The Spartans have just as good a ground game, but with three backs carrying the load instead of one, they may have fresher legs late in the game. Kirk Cousins has been very efficient thus far as well, and both teams have very solid defenses. This game will come down to the final plays just like it did last year, and I think Iowa barely pulls it out again. It wouldn't shock me if the Spartans win, but it's just tough to pick Iowa to lose in Kinnick Stadium for a second straight week.
Pac-10 -
Thank goodness for the Pac-10, where things are going as expected. No drama or chaos here, just the teams that are supposed to win coming out on top. Oregon stayed out in front by routing UCLA. Stanford didn't win as convincingly as you would expect with WSU in town, but they remain close behind the Ducks. Arizona may have lost Nick Foles for a week, but backup Matt Scott made short work Of U-Dub and kept alive the Huskies streak of alternating wins and losses. In the other Pac-10 matchup, California continued to show how good they can be at home with a 33-point win over Arizona State, but they don't seem to be able to take that magic with them on the road. Lucky for them, they get Oregon to come to Berkley this year.
Pac-10 week 9 picks - Arizona over UCLA, Oregon State over California, Arizona State over Washington State, Stanford over Washington, Oregon over USC
Week 9 outlook - Nick Foles still might not play this week, but if Matt Scott can play the way he did last week, the Bruins should be no trouble. The injury to Kevin Prince seems to have crushed this team. Cal is on the road against a solid Oregon State team, and Cal doesn't win on the road. I like the Beavers by two touchdowns. Washington State seems to get closer and closer to winning a game, but I think Arizona State sends them the other direction this week with a blowout win. Stanford looked sloppy a week ago, and Washington is due for a win thanks to their alternating win streak, but Andrew Luck and the Cardinal will be too much for Jake Locker on Saturday. Locker is banged up right now, and coach Sarkisian's play calling has been more conservative as a result. If he doesn't unleash Locker's running ability and get him out of the pocket more against Stanford, this could be a blowout. In the big one this week, the Oregon Ducks take on the USC Trojans. Matt Barkley is finally fulfilling all the potential he had when he was the number 1 quarterback recruit in the nation a couple years ago, but the number of points he will have to put up to beat the Ducks is dizzying. Oregon averages close to 60 a game, and they've put those numbers up against bad and good defenses alike. Oregon will score a bunch. The key for USC will be to keep pace and not let things get out of hand early. If Barkley limits the turnovers and keeps USC within striking distance, the Trojans may be able to pull off the shocker. I doubt it happens, however. That Oregon offense won't be stopping for directions any time soon.
SEC -
The SEC has a new frontrunner, and it is the Auburn Tigers. Cameron Newton absolutely steamrolled the LSU Tiger defense last Saturday to the tune of 217 yards on the ground and two rushing touchdowns. He has stepped up as a major heisman candidate alongside Kellen Moore and Lamichael James. Auburn is the only unbeaten left in the SEC West, but Alabama will still have a lot of say in who comes out on top. They still take on both LSU and Auburn, not to mention Mississippi State, whose recent win streak has them in the top 25. Auburn could run the table, but big tests still loom with Bama, Georgia, and the SEC title game. The east looks as though it will be decided by the South Carolina-Florida game, but if Georgia beats the Gators in Jacksonville on Saturday, the division is likely South Carolina's for the taking. However, they must avoid losses to Tennessee and Arkansas to make that a reality. Georgia still feels like they have a shot, but with games against Florida and Auburn still left, they will likely need some help to get it done.
SEC week 9 picks - South Carolina over Tennessee, Georgia over Florida, Auburn Over Ole Miss, Arkansas over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State over Kentucky
Week 9 outlook - Tennessee seems unlikely to break through for a big SEC win this week despite coach Dooley's riveting D-Day speech from last week's postgame news conference. South Carolina knows how important this game is if they want to stay in control of the SEC East, and they will win. Arkansas should handle Vandy whether Ryan Mallett can play or not. The Commodores have had more fight in them than expected, but the Hogs are just too good. Ole Miss can put up some points, and Auburn has been a little shaky on defense at times, but Cam Newton and the Tiger offense should take charge early and not let up. Mississippi State hopefully has gotten their poor performance out of their heads from the UAB game, because Kentucky is dangerous. Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb have been explosive at times, and the Bulldogs need to shut down that connection to stay ranked. I think the top 25 jitters are done now, and the Bulldogs will settle in nicely and win by a touchdown against the Wildcats. In the "World's Largest Cocktail Party," Georgia and Florida will square off in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs offense has been absolutely steamrolling people now that AJ Green is playing every week. It makes life easier on Washaun Ealey, Aaron Murray, and everyone else on that Bulldoog offense. While Florida likely won't allow another 40-point outburst from Georgia, the Gator offense has sputtered for much of the last month. Even with Chris Rainey back, I think the Bulldogs make it four straight losses for Urban Meyer and his Gators.
Best of the Rest -
All of the undefeated teams around the country falling continue to give Boise and TCU a glimmer of hope in the national title race. Even Utah should have those aspirations at this point in the season. They all keep on winning, but the real question will come if there is one spot for either Boise or TCU at the end of the year. How do you decide between the two? I really have no idea, someone gets slighted either way. The Conference USA divisional races are starting to take shape, as Houston took down SMU last week to take first place for now in the west, and ECU and UCF square off this Saturday for control of the east. While Temple and Northern Illinois have been the most impressive MAC teams thus far, both have some real competition within their divisional races. In the east, Temple is 3-1 with a loss to NIU, but Ohio is sitting at 4-1 and Miami OH is 3-1 with Temple. The Owls do still control their own fate as they close the season with Ohio and Miami back-to-back. Winning those two games will pretty much sew up a spot in the conference title game. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, can take care of the west over the next couple of weeks. They take on a dangerous Western Michigan team this Saturday at Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo. The Broncos are just one back in the loss column and have started to play decent football. After that, the Huskies come back home to take on Toledo, who is 4-0 in MAC play like the Huskies. If NIU comes out with those two wins, they are pretty much the west champs this year.
Other week 9 picks - Southern Miss over UAB, Northern Illinois over Western Michigan, Ohio over La.-Lafayette, San Diego St. over Wyoming, Boise St. over La. Tech (already happened), Notre Dame over Tulsa, UTEP over Marshall, Western Kentucky over North Texas, Miami OH over Buffalo, East Carolina over UCF, Central Michigan over Bowling Green, Kent State over Ball State, Troy over UL-Monroe, San Jose St. over New Mexico St., SMU over Tulane, Toledo over Eastern Michigan, FIU over FAU, Colorado State over New Mexico, Houston over Memphis, Utah over Air Force, Nevada over Utah State, TCU over UNLV, Hawaii over Idaho
Week 9 outlook - Most of the big boys should roll. Nevada will win easily, and Boise already did in the WAC. Hawaii also has an easy victory coming. TCU will throttle UNLV, and Notre Dame needs to rebound well against Tulsa. Utah and Air Force should play a fantastic game, but Utah has been blowing most opponents away. The game is in Colorado Springs, and the Facons run a very tough offense to stop, so this one should be closer than most for Utah. I still think the Utes remain unbeaten. In the MAC, NIU draws a Western Michigan team that has started to play pretty well in conference. NIU is focused though, and they are very tough to stop in the ground game. The best way to stop Alex Carder and the Bronco passing game is to keep the ball away from them, which the NIU offense is built to do. In a big C-USA showdown, I like East Carolina to beat a very solid Central Florida team. The Pirates offense is absolutely booming the last few weeks, and I doubt UCF is the defense to slow them down. It should be a fantastic game and it should establish the frontrunner in their division. If ECU wins, they will have a two game edge on the entire division, while a UCF win would set up a big showdown with Southern Miss in a couple weeks.
Conference power rankings -
1. SEC - Auburn jumped to the top of the BCS heap for now, and Bama continues to rebound after their disappointing South Carolina loss. The emergence of Georgia of late gives the east some hope of a respectable season.
2. Big Ten - Michigan State remains unbeaten, and Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin remain ranked behind them. Even Northwestern, Michigan, and Illinois provide strong depth for the league.
3. Big 12 - Texas may be a shell of the team they were supposed to be, but Oklahoma State and Missouri were impressive again this week, even though the Cowboys lost. Baylor, Oklahoma, and Nebraska are also all ranked here.
4. Pac-10 - The Ducks still seem to be on track for the national title game. Stanford hasn't been pretty, but they keep winning behind Oregon, and the rest of the league has been too unpredictable to put the Pac-10 any higher.
5. ACC - The only reason the ACC is lower than the Pac-10 is a lack of a top-ranked team. The best the ACC offers is Florida State at number 16 in the BCS, behind Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. The ACC has more depth with UNC, Va Tech, Miami, NC St., Clemson, and GT, but no ACC team is in the title race.
6. Mountain West - TCU and Utah are still on their collision course, while San Diego State has really stepped up along with Air Force as other competition.
7. WAC - Still mostly Boise, but Hawaii is actually in first here at 4-0 in WAC play. Fresno State is a respectable 3-1, and Nevada is still a top 25 team.
8. C-USA - East Carolina continues to impress in their first year under Ruffin McNeil. UCF has been strong as well, and Houston isn't throwing in the towel without Case Keenum after a big win over SMU.
9. Big East - No one in the top 25 for the first time this year, and for good reason. If Pitt keeps winning, it will be hard to keep them out of that list, though.
10. MAC - Plenty of teams expect to get bowl eligible from the MAC this year, and the division races actually look interesting at this point.
11. Sun Belt - Troy still in control, FIU and Middle Tennessee are the only teams that may challenge them in the worst league in the FBS.
My Top 25:
1. Oregon - 7-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 8-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 7-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 8-0 (5)
5. Alabama - 7-1 (6)
6. Utah - 7-0 (9)
7. Michigan State - 8-0 (10)
8. Wisconsin - 7-1 (14)
9. Ohio State - 7-1 (11)
10. Nebraska - 6-1 (12)
11. Missouri - 7-0 (19)
12. Florida State - 7-1 (15)
13. Stanford - 6-1 (13)
14. LSU - 7-1 (8)
15. Oklahoma - 6-1 (4)
16. Arizona - 6-1 (17)
17. Iowa - 5-2 (7)
18. Arkansas - 5-2 (18)
19. Virginia Tech - 6-2 (22)
20. South Carolina - 5-2 (21)
21. Oklahoma State - 6-1 (16)
22. Miami FL - 5-2 (UNR)
23. Mississippi State - 6-2 (25)
24. Baylor - 6-2 (UNR)
25. East Carolina - 5-2 (UNR)
Dropped from the rankings: West Virginia (20), Texas (23), Kansas State (24)
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