Well, the BCS Rankings have been officially released and the number one team in the nation is: Oklahoma?! OK, who's playing a joke on the rest of the nation here? Granted, Oklahoma is one of the 10 remaining undefeated teams, but they've had more close calls than Les Miles and LSU so far. They struggled to hold off Utah State (2-4) by a touchdown. They only topped Air Force by a field goal, and they beat Cincinnati (3-3) on a muffed punt by just two points. On top of that, they tried to fumble away the Red River game against a Texas, a team that was throttled the week before by UCLA, before being bailed out by yet another muffed punt. Without their 30 point win over Florida State, and if they weren't "Oklahoma," they would barely be in the top 10, let alone #1. Oregon, who has looked like the clear best team in the country came in at number 2, but they were not number 1 on any of the computer rankings. Only LSU and Oklahoma were given the top spot in any of those rankings. Yes, the same LSU who needed 13 Vols on the field for the final play to bail them out of bad clock management, and a fortuitous bounce to convert a fake field goal and beat Florida. Something smells fishy about these rankings, and as usual it's the lack of respect for non-automatic qualifiers Boise State and TCU. They always have an uphill battle once the rankings come out, since their schedules don't get any tougher as the season goes on. It really doesn't help when they start on the outside looking in from the initial BCS rankings. It's not ridiculous to think that a one-loss Alabama or Iowa team could play for the national title over undefeated Boise and TCU. Hopefully that doesn't happen, but only time will tell. As we enter week 8, a few more unbeatens will fall. LSU and Auburn square off as do Missouri and Oklahoma with their unbeaten starts on the line. Michigan State and Oklahoma State take on tough one-loss teams this week as well.
ACC -
It was an interesting week in the ACC as most of the expected winners came out on top, but one major casualty was the NC State Wolfpack. NC State went down at the hands of Ruffin McNeil's East Carolina Pirates who have been playing pretty good football so far. It isn't a conference loss, but if the Wolfpack wants to be a real threat to Florida State in the atlantic division they have to play better than this. North Carolina continues to lock in as they get used to the lineup without many of their big stars. The players that are eligible took down Virginia by 34 points on Saturday. Florida State reverted to earlier season form by struggling mightily to get by a mediocre Boston College team with Christian Ponder turning the ball over 4 times. There will be teams that will beat the Noles if they continue to play sloppy football. The conference has a lot of contenders, and things will continue to get more intense as the schedule starts to eliminate the pretenders soon.
ACC Week 8 picks - Virginia Tech over Duke, Maryland over Boston College, Clemson over Georgia Tech, Virginia over Eastern Michigan, North Carolina over Miami
Week 8 outlook - Virginia should pad their win total against a miserable EMU team, and Virginia Tech should run their win streak to 6 with an easy one with Duke. Boston College has a solid defense, but they just don't score many points. Maryland just needs to take care of the ball on offense and they will find a way to win this game. Clemson is really starting to hit their stride and I expect them to take care of an inconsistent Georgia Tech team. They've seen this triple option before, and I think they will slow it down enough to get a lead, and the Yellow Jackets are not good at playing from behind. In the biggest game of the week in the ACC, I think North Carolina continues to gain steam and beats a Miami team that has had a real issue turning the ball over. Even in their wins, they cough the ball up. As long as UNC limits Miami's big plays, and plays efficiently on offense again, they should be able to beat the Hurricanes.
Big East -
The Big East race is starting to look like it was supposed to at the beginning of the year. West Virginia has been a constant at the front of the race, but Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, who both started the year slowly, have rebounded to become a factor in the conference once again. Pitt's offensive line is starting to play with some consistency, and Cincy's offense is back to being explosive as it was last year. Syracuse reminded us that they are still Syracuse, and issues at quarterback for UConn and consistency for Rutgers have weighed those teams down. Lousville is finally starting to play well again as well.
Big East week 8 picks - Cincinnati over South Florida, Pittsburgh over Rutgers, West Virginia over Syracuse, Louisville over Connecticut
Week 8 outlook - Cincinnati is back in the groove offensively, and Isaiah Pead and Zach Collaros will put on a show against a South Florida team that has really lacked direction since Jim Leavitt was fired. Rutgers will play inspired football to rally after the severe injury to Eric LeGrand, but it won't be enough to stop a Pittsburgh team that has a dual threat backfield with Ray Graham and Dion Lewis. Their success on the ground continues to keep the pressure off Tino Sunseri, who is making things happen as a result. I expect Pitt to win a hard fought one. West Virginia should take care of Syracuse by at least 3 touchdowns. Louisville is coming together as a team, while UConn is coming unglued. The Huskies will be on their third starting qb of the season after Zac Frazier was benched and Cody Endres was kicked off the team for likely failing a drug test for the third time. The new quarterback will be overmatched in a hostile environment in Papa John's Stadium with a crowd that has been waiting a couple years for a team to cheer for. It really doesn't help that UConn is 0-3 on the road. Look for 0-4 after Saturday.
Big 12 -
The Nebraska victory tour came to a screeching halt last week against the Longhorns, mainly because the Huskers dropped 8 passes. That opens things up a little bit at the top of the conference. It will still be between Missouri and Nebraska for the North title, but if Kansas State continues to play the way they did against Kansas, don't count them out just yet. Oklahoma looks like the clear favorite in the South, but they still have the Bedlam game with Ok. St., not to mention a trip to Columbia to play Missouri this Saturday before a potential showdown with Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. A lot can still happen. Oklahoma State is still undefeated, and could still be the team playing in Reliant stadium in the title game. Texas needs to hope for a repeat of two years ago when a 3-way tie in the division was decided by the BCS rankings. They would need Oklahoma State to lose only to them, and for the Cowboys to beat Oklahoma to have a shot.
Big 12 week 8 picks - Texas over Iowa State, Colorado over Texas Tech, Nebraska over Oklahoma State, Kansas State over Baylor, Texas A&M over Kansas, Oklahoma over Missouri
Week 8 outlook - Texas should be a winner easily over the conference punching bag Cyclones. Texas A&M should get rolling finally against the Jayhawks. Colorado should have a tough one with Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders haven't been as explosive as in years past, and I think the Buffaloes will pull off the win at home. Kansas State needs to keep up the explosive offense that crushed in-state rival Kansas last week, because Baylor can score some points. Robert Griffin has been very good so far, and Baylor's 5-2 start is no fluke. I like K-State to pull this one out, but it will be a close one more than likely. In the first of the two big games this weekend for the Big 12, I look for Big Red to get back on track with a win over Oklahoma State. Brandon Weeden can't run like Garrett Gilbert did last week, and the blackshirt D should shut down Kendall Hunter. It will be important for Nebraska's talented corners to find wideout Justin Blackmon on third downs, because the Cowboys will likely move him around to get better matchups to put the ball in his hands. On the offensive side of the ball, expect a more polished Nebraska attack. They need to quit fumbling the ball the way they have, but this is an OK St. defense that has given up big point totals to Tulsa and Texas A&M, and Nebraska is a little better than those teams. I expect Taylor Martinez to go back over the century mark rushing and for Nebraska to win by 2 scores. In the other big game, Oklahoma needs to make a statement against Missouri. Oregon certainly made one against UCLA on Thursday, and the Sooners need to keep pace to stay high in the human polls. Missouri has been very solid to this point of the season, but it's easy to win home games against lesser competition. The Tigers are better on defense this year than they were a season ago, and Blaine Gabbert may be the best passer in the Big 12 outside of Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden, but they haven't played the type of athletes that Oklahoma will throw at them on Saturday night. The Sooners played their best football in the biggest game of the year against Florida State, and I expect more of the same against Mizzou. Bob Stoops will not let this team lose focus this week, and I expect the Sooners to double up the Tigers in Columbia.
Big Ten -
Last week was a wild one in the Bg Ten. As I predicted, the number one Ohio State Buckeyes went down against the Badgers.Wisconsin controlled the line of scrimmage and took it to OSU. John Clay was the first back to top 100 yards rushing against them this season. As a result, only 3 teams remain unbeaten in league play: Michigan State, Iowa, and Purdue. Purdue won't be on the list for long, but MSU and Iowa must survive big games this week to play next week for control of the league. OSU and Wisconsin really have to be pulling for Iowa next week to stay in the hunt for the automatic BCS berth, as both are yet to play the Hawkeyes, while the Badgers lost to the Spartans and the Buckeyes don't play them. Outside of those 4 teams, Michigan has a bye week to hopefully stop the slide they appear to be on again. Minnesota fired head coach Tim Brewster after a disappointing 1-6 start, and Indiana barely survived a scare from Arkansas State last week. The next two weeks will tell a lot about how this league title race will shake out.
Big Ten week 8 picks - Michigan State over Northwestern, Penn State over Minnesota, Ohio State over Purdue, Illinois over Indiana, Iowa over Wisconsin
Week 8 outlook - Not a lot of gimme picks this week. Ohio State should have a huge bounceback win over Purdue, but not if Terelle Pryor doesn't play better. Purdue has won two straight and shouldn't be taken too lightly. Illinois has been very strong on the defensive side of the ball, and Indiana has an awful run defense those two things should add up to an Illini win. Ben Chappell will likely be held under 300 yards for just the third time this season. Penn State has been just awful so far this year, and hopefully a matchup with Minnesota will cure what ails them. Evan Royster should have a great game in a win, but with their head coach getting axed, the Gophers have nothing to lose. That could make them very dangerous for the Nittany Lions. Michigan State heads into Ryan Field in Evanston, IL to take on Northwestern in their first game all year outside the state of Michigan. This looks like a classic trap game for the Spartans with a trip to Iowa up next for Sparty. Some would argue that it isn't a trap game when the opponent is 5-1, same as Iowa, but Northwestern is no Iowa. I would buy that argument for not calling Wisconsin and Iowa a trap game for the Hawkeyes or a letdown game for the Badgers coming off the big upset of OSU. That game is neither of those things since both teams are so good. Northwestern on the other hand, has padded the win total with games against Vanderbilt, Illinois State, Rice, Central Michigan and Minnesota, and suffered a loss to lowly Purdue. Northwestern is well coached however, and should not be taken lightly by MSU. The Spartans need to get the ground game going early and grind away NU's will to play this game. I don't expect a blowout, but I expect Michigan State to stay focused and not fall into the trap. Iowa and Wisconsin in Iowa City is the biggest game of the week. Iowa has the toughest defense in the Big Ten, but Wisconsin is no slouch on that side of the ball either. This game will likely be decided by which quarterback makes the most third down plays, and which one avoids the big turnovers. These two teams have been among the most consistent in the country to date, and this game will come down to the final couple of drives. I think Ricky Stanzi makes just enough plays to top Scott Tolzien and the Badgers, in yet another physical game for Wisconsin.
Pac-10 -
Oregon sat last week on a bye as they got to watch Oklahoma pummel hapless Iowa State to move into the top spot in the BCS. Unfair as it may seem, they took out their frustrations last night on the UCLA Bruins. They dropped 60 on Rick Neuheisel's squad to which he could only reply, "That was impressive." Coaches don't even know what to say after facing this offense. The only game all year that they were in danger of losing was against Arizona State, a game in which they turned the ball over 7 times and won by ONLY 11 points. Really? Eleven points when you give the ball away 7 times? Now that's impressive. What's more impressive is that the Ducks actually have the best turnover margin in the country despite those seven giveaways in one game. Their opportunistic defense makes the offense look even better by giving them short fields to work with. This team is going to be very hard to beat anytime soon. With only three games on the slate last weekend in the Pac-10 not much was decided. Jake Locker and the Huskies continued to be up and down with a thrilling win over Oregon State by a single point in Seattle. It was the Beavers first loss in the league, and their first loss to a team that is not currently undefeated. Speaking of up and down teams, California followed up a trouncing of UCLA by getting whalloped by USC 48-14. USC is getting their act together in time to host Oregon in a week, while Cal continues to play well at home and poorly on the road. In their 3 home games, they average winning by about 40 points, with the closest game being a 28-pointer over UCLA. On the road, however, they are 0-3 and average losing by about 20 points per game. Only a 1-point loss at Arizona really strays from the norm for this team. Through seven weeks, Oregon and Stanford are still in charge, with the pack nipping at their heels thinning every week, and Arizona without Nick Foles may be the next to fall.
Pac-10 week 8 picks - Oregon over UCLA (already happened), California over Arizona State, Stanford over Washington State, Wahington over Arizona
Week 8 outlook - I would have picked Oregon to win anyway, but likely not by 47 points, which is the margin they dispatched of the Bruins by. California gets Arizona State at home, and I just discussed what they do to teams in their stadium. The Bears tend to blow people out at home, and I wouldn't be shocked if that trend continues. Arizona State is a decent team, but Cal is tough when they are clicking. Washington State is improving, but c'mon, Stanford will likely manhandle them, especially in Palo Alto. The toughest game to predict this week is between Washington and Arizona. If Nick Foles were healthy, I would pick Arizona hands down. It would play into Washington's season-long trend of alternating wins and losses. They are due for a loss. But, Nick Foles sprained knee will keep him out of action on Saturday, and that is good news for the Huskies. They have been very good in conference games against ranked opponents, and I think the qb issue for the Wildcats is enough to continue that trend. This will be a close game, but I believe Locker and the Huskies pull out another one.
SEC -
Well, it seems clear to me now that all of the power in the Southeastern Conference resides in the West division. Every team in the East has 3 conference losses except for South Carolina and Vandy, who each have two. Meanwhile, no one in the West has more than 2 league losses, and LSU and Auburn remain unbeaten overall and Alabama has just one loss. To drive the point home a little more, the West is 10-2 head-to-head against the East, with the only losses coming by Ole Miss to Vanderbilt and the infamous South Carolina upset of Alabama. There are only a few games left that the East will even have a fighting chance in against the West. With all of that said, the race for West supremacy could be a race for a national title berth, and the biggest game in that race is this weekend between LSU and Auburn. This game won't decide anything, as both teams still have to play Alabama, but it would be a nice leg up on the division for someone. The East is really anyone's guess at this point, with Florida and South Carolina looking like the the frontrunners, but even Georgia, Vandy and Kentucky can't be counted out yet.
SEC week 8 picks - Arkansas over Ole Miss, Auburn over LSU, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State over UAB, Alabama over Tennessee, Georgia over Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - In the one East vs. West matchup of the week, the West should again win easily as 'Bama is much better than the Vols. Mississippi State will get bowl eligible this week with a win over an outgunned UAB team. They just need to not come out flat after an emotional win over Florida. If Vanderbilt can upset South Caroina this week, they woud be alone in first place in the East. That's a crazy thing to say about a team that just lost 43-0 last week, but it's true. Marcus Lattimore being out for the Gamecocks makes this a game worth watching, but Stephen Garcia will consistently look to Alshon Jeffries, and the hard-hitting Gamecock defense will rule the day with a big win to take first for themselves. Boy, what a difference AJ Green makes for the Bulldogs of Georgia. Aaron Murray has played much better since his top target returned from suspension and the team has rolled to two straight big divisional wins, outscoring Tennessee and Vanderbilt by a combined 70 points. If that Bulldog offense continues to roll this week, they should outlast a pretty solid Kentucky team that can score a lot of points themselves. A win by the Bulldogs keeps them hoping that the SEC title game isn't out of the question. Arkansas gets an Ole Miss team that can score some points, and they must be better on defense this week. Allowing 65 to Auburn is not a way to win a big game. Ryan Mallett will be back, which should help. Backup Tyler Wilson was tremendous in relief last week until late in the game, when a couple of untimely picks put Arkansas away. The Razorbacks should score plenty of points in this one as long as Mallett doesn't show any lingering effects from his concussion, and the Hogs should win by about 17. In the game of the week in all of college football, The Tigers of LSU battle the Tigers of Auburn. This one won't be pulled out by some Les Miles magic act. This game will be won with good, hard-nosed football. The biggest factor in the game is that Auburn's biggest defensive deficiency is in the passing game, and LSU cannot throw the ball. Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson will have to be tremendous in the passing game, which they haven't been all year. It wouldn't hurt the Bayou Bengals if they can finally get Russell Shepard going the way many experts predicted they would from day one. When Auburn has the ball, look for Cam Newton to continue to be the focal point. LSU will come out with a gameplan to stop him, but Auburn isn't the type of team to get cute and try do go outside of what they normally do to catch LSU off guard. No matter how many tacklers you throw at him, it's never easy to stop a guy who's 6-6, 250 lbs. and can run like Newton does. It doesn't hurt that he has become a better passer as the year has gone on. If that LSU offense doesn't find some rhythm early in this game, they could be playing catch-up all day. I expect the Auburn Tigers to win a close one and take control of the SEC West.
Best of the Rest -
On top of being disrespected by the computers, Boise and TCU both saw their title chances hurt in another way last Saturday as Air Force fell to San Diego State on a missed 2-point conversion, and Nevada fell to Hawaii by 6 after throwing a pick on their final drive that started with an onside kick recovery. This news certainly hurts Boise a little more than TCU, as the Horned Frogs still have Utah ahead, but any knocks to the strength of schedule are devastating to these two teams right now. One way that these teams could really improve their chances of being selected for the national title game is to stage a game between the Mountain West champ and the WAC champ the same weekend as the other conference title games. It's a little late for this idea now that the other leagues are pilfering teams from these leagues, but it's still worth mentioning. If Boise and TCU were to both run the table, a game between the two would give one of them a big quality win and boost the strength of schedule. Granted, it would be tough on the team that loses, but if the conferences wanted to be taken seriously as title contenders, they would try this. The biggest argument against it is that the losing team could be knocked out of a BCS bowl game, costing them and their conference a huge payday. My solution is to split the profits of the Boise-TCU game 60-40 with the bigger share going to the loser. I know it seems like a wild idea, but aren't wild ideas what make Boise so much fun to watch anyway? Isn't that why America fell in love with this team when they beat Oklahoma? They do nothing but win, and get nothing but overlooked. That goes for TCU as well. Wouldn't we have to take notice of two unbeaten teams playing each other in early December? I'd think so. Around the rest of the non-AQ conferences, the most important developments are coming out of Conference-USA, where East Carolina defeated North Carolina State to pull off a huge upset. The Pirates are now 4-2 overall and 3-0 in conference play, and really are starting to make some noise. SMU and UCF are also undefeated in league play in what is shaping up to be a good year for the conference.
Other week 8 picks - Notre Dame over Navy, TCU over Air Force, Temple over Buffalo, Utah over Colorado State, Fresno State over San Jose State, Northern Illinois over Central Michigan, East Carolina over Marshall, SMU over Houston, UTEP over Tulane, San Diego State over New Mexico, Hawaii over Utah State, BYU over Wyoming, Central Florida over Rice, Idaho over New Mexico State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Ohio over Miami OH, Arkansas State over Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State over Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana-Lafayette over Western Kentucky
Week 8 outlook - Notre Dame has had recent struggles with Navy, but i think they slow down Ricky Dobbs and the Midshipmen enough to get the W. This is the kind of game Notre Dame has to win to keep hoping for a solid bowl game. Temple and NIU should keep controlling the MAC with wins this week. ECU, SMU, UCF should remain unbeaten in C-USA play fairly easily, while SMU might struggle with Houston, but should still find a way to win. Hawaii should build on the momentum of their win over Nevada with another win. Utah gets a Colorado St. team that finally found a little offense last week, but they should lose it again aginst the Utes. The biggest non-AQ game of the week pits TCU against Air Force. The Horned Frogs must be smart against the spread running attack that Air Force runs. I doubt they hold a 4th straight opponent touchdownless, but that defense is smothering and the game is at home. TCU should win by 2-3 scores.
Conference Rankings -
1. SEC - The West may hold all the strength, but there is a lot of strength there.
2. Big Ten - Loss by Ohio State just creates more depth at the top of the league as OSU, Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all have one loss or fewer.
3. Big 12 - Even with Nebraska falling, there are still 3 unbeatens here as only the SEC and MWC have even 2.
4. Pac-10 - Slip-up by Oregon State thins the lead group, and injury to Nick Foles could thin it further.
5. ACC - FSU is the class of the conference, but Clemson, VT, and North Carolina all look good as well.
6. Mountain West - Even with Air Force loss, TCU and Utah are both top 10 teams.
7. WAC - The league loses an unbeaten, but Hawaii adds overall depth.
8. C-USA - Big ECU upset keeps them above Big East for now
9. Big East - Pitt and Cincy are rebounding from slow starts while WVU stays strong, but UConn and Rutgers may be falling apart, and Syracuse is really not good.
10. MAC - A couple other potential bowl teams have come out in Toledo and Miami OH, to go along with the Owls and Huskies
11. Sun Belt - Still nothing of note here.
My Top 25 Rankings
1. Oregon - 7-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 7-0 (3)
3. Boise St. - 6-0 (4)
4. Oklahoma - 6-0 (6)
5. Auburn - 7-0 (7)
6. Alabama - 6-1 (8)
7. Iowa - 5-1 (9)
8. LSU - 7-0 (11)
9. Utah - 6-0 (10)
10. Michigan St. - 7-0 (12)
11. Ohio St. - 6-1 (2)
12. Nebraska - 5-1 (5)
13. Stanford - 5-1 (15)
14. Wisconsin - 6-1 (16)
15. Florida St. - 6-1 (20)
16. Oklahoma St. - 6-0 (19)
17. Arizona - 5-1 (17)
18. Arkansas - 4-2 (13)
19. Missouri 6-0 (23
20. West Virginia - 5-1 (UNR)
21. South Carolina - 4-2 (14)
22. Virginia Tech - 5-2 (UNR)
23. Texas - 4-2 (UNR)
24. Kansas St. - 5-1 (UNR)
25. Mississippi St. 5-2 (UNR)
Dropped from the rankings: Nevada (18), Florida (21), Air Force (22), NC State (24), and Michigan (25)
No comments:
Post a Comment