Over the past couple of weeks in the 2010 college football season, the most important lesson being taught is just how important it is to have a good backup quarterback. One team after another has seen their main signal-caller go down with injury, and some have continued to roll along offensively, while others have fallen apart. The first prime example of this is in the brutal injury suffered by Jacory Harris against Virginia last Saturday. The hit looked devastating at full speed, and the 'Canes are without Harris now for at least two weeks. Although the Hurricanes didn't score while Harris was in the game, and Jacory threw two picks including one on the play he was hurt on, backup Stephen Morris was worse. The offense really struggled for a while with Morris out there, and the team was in a 24-0 hole before he finally got his feet under him. The hole was too deep to dig out of. California suffered a similar fate this past week without qb Kevin Riley. Riley went down with a knee injury in the first quarter, and the Bears sputtered to just over 200 yards of offense for the game. Now, Cal isn't exactly a good team on the road anyway, but the 35-7 loss to Oregon State was hardly expected if Riley was out there. Cincinnati struggled to move the ball against Syracuse without Zach Collaros. Arkansas lost Ryan Mallett for parts of 2 games, and while backup Tyler Wilson may have done well filling in, his picks late against Auburn may have cost the Hogs a shot at the SEC title. Notre Dame lost Dane Crist for the season, and likely any bowl hopes they had left as they failed to beat Tulsa after Tommy Rees threw a pick in the end zone when they could have kicked an easy field goal for the win. UCLA went from up-and-comer after some big early wins to Pac-10 joke with Kevin Prince sidelined. The Houston Cougars also were derailed by injury when Case Keenum went down for the year against UCLA in their third game. There have, however, been some instances of backup quarterbacks making their mark. In Arizona, backup Matt Scott has been fantastic with Nick Foles sidelined. The Wildcats took care of Washington and UCLA with the backup at the helm. Penn State sat Rob Bolden due to a concussion, and backup Matt McGloin came in to finish off Minnesota, and then help PSU to 41 points against Michigan last weekend. At Rutgers, backup Chas Dodd has done an admirable job filling in for Tom Savage, even if the record doesn't show it. Many teams have been lucky enough to keep their starting quarterback healthy all year, but as for those who haven't, you had better have a capable backup waiting in the wings. Jake Locker is the most recent big name to go down, and things could be very interesting going forward if Cam Newton, Darron Thomas, Kellen Moore, Terelle Pryor, or Andy Dalton were to go down with an injury. You never hope to see players get hurt, but those injuries always throw a wrench into the expected. And now for the tour around the country:
ACC -
Another big week of games in the ACC this past weekend. The Atlantic division race has certainly started to get a little separation. The Wolpack took down the vaunted Seminoles last Thursday, taking a slight edge in the race. They now control their own destinly and can win out to go to the ACC championship. Maryland and Clemson remain on the schedule, so nothing is certain yet. Clemson is the team that let a big opportunity slip through their fingers this week. A win over Boston College would have put them just a game back in the division with games against FSU and NC St. ahead. With the loss to BC, the Tigers need a lot of help. Maryland still feels like a fraud at 4-1, but until they start losing, they are what their record says they are. In the Coastal division, the Va. Tech Hokies are firmly in control thanks to Virginia's upset win over Miami. The Hokies have a two game edge on the entire division, and as long as they don't drop two more games with Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia on the remaining schedule, they cannot be caught. Jacory Harris's injury is likely the edge the Hokies need to put this thing away. Unless North Carolina makes an improbable run, and gets some help, this division is pretty much decided.
ACC week 10 picks - Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech, Virginia over Duke, North Carolina State over Clemson, Florida State over North Carolina, Boston College over Wake Forest, Miami over Maryland
Week 10 outlook - The Hokies have been rolling while the Yellow Jackets have struggled of late. I don't see GT being the team to trip up Virginia Tech. The game won't be a rout, but the Hokies will win. Duke showed some signs of life in a win over Navy last week, but in that win they jumped out to a huge lead, and barely beat a team that struggles when playing from behind. Navy's offense is not built to throw the ball. Virginia also found their stride a little bit last week, and I believe in Virginia's ability to sustain their success another week. I think the Cavaliers win by 2 scores. Boston College finally won a conference game last week, and I expect another over Wake Forest. Maryland dropped over 60 points on Wake last week, and while I doubt the Eagles will do that, 30-40 isn't out of the question. That should be plenty for BC's stout defense to keep Wake Forest short of the W. Florida State likely will come back and play well after their heartbreaking loss to NC St. last week. Carolina should put up a fight, but if last week's close win over William & Mary showed us anything about the Tar Heels, it's that they might be running out of steam with the depleted roster they've been running with all year. Miami will take on Maryland without Jacory Harris under center, and that might be enough of a break for the Terps to stay once-beaten in ACC games. However, Stephen Morris showed real signs of life late in the Virginia game in almost leading the 'Canes back, and with a full week of practice under his belt, he should look sharper. He has better skill players than the Terps in Damian Berry and Leonard Hankerson, and that Miami D is much tougher than Wake Forest. The best game in the ACC this week is the one between Clemson and North Carolina State. It would have had more meaning if Clemson had won last week, but it's still a must-win for the Wolfpack. Russell Wilson has been fantastic all year, and Clemson was really kept in check by Boston College last week. Clemson has a lot of fight in them, but there is something about this NC State team that makes me believe they will play for the league title.
Big East -
Well, Syracuse continues to prove me wrong week in and week out. I didn't believe they were a legitimate Big East contender until now, but they still need some teams to beat the Pitt Panthers for them. This race is still a big mess at this point in the season, with only 'Cuse and Pitt over .500 in league games, but the Panthers have to be the clear frontrunners for now. If they win out and sweep all of their conference games, their automatic BCS bid won't be quite as big as a joke as it could be. But, if they dump a game or two, things could look really bad in the Big East at season's end. Cincy, Rutgers, South Florida, and West Virginia have all struggled so far this year, and things aren't exactly looking up for any of them.
Big East week 10 picks - Syracuse over Louisville, Rutgers over South Florida
Week 10 outlook - The South Florida Bulls haven't shown much offensive prowess against respectable defenses, and Rutgers has one of those. If Chas Dodd and Mohammed Sanu can find some points against those Bulls, they should pull out a tough one. I'm finally giving in and picking Syracuse to win a game in conference. It isn't because I don't like Louisville. Bilal Powell has been phenomenal running the ball, but Syracuse keeps finding a way to win games. With each week, they seem to be growing more confident, and another win seems likely here.
Big 12 -
What a difference two weeks make in the Big 12. Two weeks ago, Oklahoma was number one in the BCS, Missouri and Oklahoma State were still unbeaten, Nebraska had just gotten exposed by a Texas team that snuck it's way back into the top 25, and Baylor was merely an afterthought in the south. Two weeks later, and it's Nebraska and Baylor sitting atop the respective divisions and in control of their own destinies. The Bears still have games left with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, but for now they are in charge down south. Nebraska has all but sealed up the north with a win over Missouri, and now they just have to avoid an upset at the hands of ISU, Kansas, Colorado, or Texas A&M. Missouri has to sit by and hope for a slip-up. Oklahoma and OK St. still have a say in the south, but they will have to beat a very good Baylor team, and then play each other. Any of those 3 teams are capable of representing the south in the Big 12 title game at this point, but this weekend's Baylor-OK St. game should start to paint a picture.
Big 12 week 10 picks - Colorado over Kansas, Nebraska over Iowa State, Oklahoma over Texas A&M, Oklahoma State over Baylor, Missouri over Texas Tech, Texas over Kansas State
Week 10 outlook - Turner Gill's tough first year will continue with a bad loss to Colorado this week. Nebraska will take care of Iowa State with or without Taylor Martinez. Missouri will bounce back against a lackluster Texas Tech squad. Oklahoma should take care of Texas A&M, but the Aggies have been better on offense the last couple of weeks, and if they avoid turnovers they can stay in this game. Kansas State has come back to earth after a good start to the year, and Texas badly needs this win. The Longhorns are stout defensively, especially against the run, and will shut down Daniel Thomas. Without that running game, the Wildcats won't top the Longhorns. Oklahoma State and Baylor play in the game of the week in the Big 12. Brandon Weeden gets Justin Blackmon back from his DUI suspension, and that Cowboy offense is tough to stop when Kendall Hunter and Justin Blackmon are both in the lineup. Robert Griffin and Baylor have an explosive offense of their own, but I don't think Baylor is capable of putting up 41 on Nebraska the way Oklahoma State did. I think this one is a big-time shootout, with the Cowboys putting up just a few more points than the Bears.
Big Ten -
Michigan State can officially step back out of the national spotlight. The pressure proved to be too much for this Spartan team, especially for quarterback Kirk Cousins, whose erratic passing in the first half cost this team the game early. Iowa never let the Spartans think they had a chance to get back in this one. Around the rest of the Big Ten, Penn State found some offense, and Michigan proved to be the fraud they were a year ago. They can move the ball and score on anyone, but it doesn't matter if you can't play defense. The Wolverines can't stop anyone, and this team will be a real mess next year if Rich Rod isn't brought back. U of M is in a very delicate situation, as their entire roster on offense is built for Rodriguez's system. A new system next year could make the offense as inept as the defense. Illinois has really found themselves over the last month, and are a real threat to wni the Big Ten next season. As for the conference title race, a three-way tie seems likely between Michigan State, Wisconsin, and the winner of the OSU-Iowa game next week. Upsets are possible, but it's shaping up to be a split title.
Big Ten week 10 picks - Illinois over Michigan, Iowa over Indiana, Michigan State over Minnesota, Wisconsin over Purdue, Northwestern over Penn State
Week 10 outlook - Three games on the schedule this week are pretty easy to call. Iowa will dismantle Indiana, Michigan State will throttle Minnesota to get a little of that Sparty on mojo back, And Wisconsin will have fun destroying Purdue. Northwestern will play a tight game with Penn State, because all of their games are close, and I think Persa and wideout Jeremy Bates do enough to pull out another one late. The quarterback dilemma for the Nittany Lions is enough of a distraction to give the Wildcats the edge. Illinois' offense is exactly the type that will give Michigan fits, and by that I mean they line up eleven guys. The Wolverines will certainly score, but it's impossible to pick them to win if they can't stop the Illini. They need to start making stops, or at the very least start creating turnovers. Another loss here would be Michigan's fourth in a row, and would be another season that got away from them.
Pac-10
The Pac-10 race reamined the same as it was a week ago. Oregon is in charge, but Stanford and Arizona sit patiently behind them waiting for a Duck loss to make things interesting. The Ducks aren't likely to lose, but Arizona still gets a crack at them soon. Oregon State is also in the mix with just one Pac-10 loss to date. The rest of the teams have a myriad of issues from bowl ineligibility (USC), to an injured quarterback and inconsistent play in general (UCLA and Washington), to a terrible lack of ability to bring their talent on the road (Cal), to just being a horrible team (Washington State). They create a fun mix for the top 4 to take on, but they really don't help the overall strength of schedule.
Pac-10 week 10 picks - Oregon over Washington, California over Washington State, Oregon State over UCLA, USC over Arizona State, Arizona over Stanford
Week 10 outlook - The only shot the Huskies have for an upset of the Ducks is a healthy Jake Locker, and they don't have that. Look for the Ducks to roll up at least 50 more points in the win. As long as Richard Brehaut is the quarterbacck, I can't pick UCLA to win against a very good Oregon State team. Jaquizz Rodgers will be the key to the Beaver offense in this one. USC will take care of Arizona State in a good game for Matt Barkley. I finally feel like Cal will break their streak of losing on the road this week with hapless Washington State on the schedule. However, with Kevin Riley sidelined, nothing is certain. The Cougars are hungry for a win and Cal might not be expecting a stiff challenge. Arizona and Stanford is a big one this week. Harbaugh's Cardinal play with a mean streak, but Arizona has shown the balance on offense that can keep Stanford's defense guessing. No matter wich qb starts, I think Arizona does just enough to win close. Both of these teams tend to get up for the big games, but the way Stanford's offense disappeared in the Oregon game gives me pause before I can pick them. I'll take the Cats by a field goal or 2.
SEC -
The SEC West remains wide open as the big boys all won last week if they played. In the East, Florida's overtime win over Georgia kept them in the hunt and sets up a huge showdown with South Carolina a week from now. If the Gators take care of Vandy, next week's Gators-Gamecocks matchup is for the division crown. Georgia's valiant resurgence fell short as their loss to Florida eliminated them from title contention in the east. In fact, at this point, only Florida or South Carolina can win the division. The West still has 4 teams that are very much in the running, But Auburn would have to drop their last two against Georgia and 'Bama to let Arkansas or Mississippi State back in the mix. More than likely, it will be Alabama or Auburn in that game, but there are a lot of possible scenarios. The Iron Bowl should be a classic this year, though.
SEC week 10 picks - Florida over Vanderbilt, Georgia over Idaho State, Kentucky over Charleston Southern, Auburn over Chattanooga, Alabama over LSU, Mississippi over UL-Lafayette, Arkansas over South Carolina, Tennessee over Memphis
Week 10 outlook - Georgia, Kentucky, and Auburn all take on FCS opponents, and all 3 should win easily. Ole Miss and Tennessee don't take on much stiffer competition in UL Lafayette and Memphis, respectively, and they should also win fairly comfortably. Tennessee is never a sure thing, but Memphis has struggled against C-USA opposition. If Florida continues to play the way they did against Georgia, Vandy will not present any problems for the Gators. Arkansas should continue to demonstrate just how much better the west is than the east by taking down east leader South Carolina. Marcus Lattimore is tough to stop, and the Gamecocks have had a solid defense for much of the season, but they give up the most passing yards per game in the SEC. With so much focus on next week's Florida game, the Gamecocks might not be able to handle Ryan Mallett's fantastic passing game with receivers Greg Childs and Joe Adams. The Gamecocks don't want to collapse after the 6-2 start like they did last year, but this matchup just doesn't suit them. I think the Razorbacks win. Alabama and LSU take each other on in an SEC West elimination game. The loser has very little hope of winning the division title. Granted, if Auburn does lose their final two games, things aren't quite over for the loser, but Auburn hasn't lost so far, so it's hard to predict a sudden two game losing streak. Alabama actually has more to gain from a win here than LSU. Realistically, the Crimson Tide control their own destiny in the national title race. If they win out, that would mean they knock off unbeaten Auburn, and either TCU or Utah will go down this weekend as well. If only Oregon is unbeaten from a power conference, 'Bama would likely hurdle TCU and Boise into the title game due to strength of schedule. Earlier in the year, they took on Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina in a brutal three week stretch, and now close the year with LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn in an even tougher stretch. I love the Tide to roll against LSU. The offense for LSU is still pretty much a mess, and Alabama will just grind you down. Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Greg McElroy are just too consistent to be shut down, no matter how good the LSU defense is.
Best of the Rest -
The Mountain West will finally be decided this Saturday as TCU and Utah square off in a huge battle of unbeatens. Boise gets a top WAC rival as well with Hawaii's high flying aerial assault coming to the smurf turf. San Diego State is technically still alive in the MWC race with just one league loss and both Utah and TCU ahead on the schedule, but they are unlikely to beat either. The MAC race remains as it was a week ago, with Temple, Ohio, and Miami OH competing in the east, and NIU and Toledo atop the west. In Conference USA, Central Florida staked their claim to the east with a win over East Carolina, effectively taking a two game lead on the entire division. Houston leads the west with a head-to-head tiebreaker over SMU, and are actually having a nice season even without Case Keenum. It's impossible to tell who will win the Sun Belt at this point, but who really cares?
Other week 10 picks - TCU over Utah, Boise State over Hawaii, Central Florida over Houston, Ohio over Buffalo, Western Michigan over Central Michigan, Air Force over Army, Ball State over Akron, Tulsa over Rice, BYU over UNLV, Temple over Kent State, Utah State over New Mexico State, East Carolina over Navy, Southern Miss over Tulane, Fresno State over Louisiana Tech, UAB over Marshall, Wyoming over New Mexico, Troy over North Texas, Florida International over UL-Monroe, SMU over UTEP, San Diego State over Colorado State
Week 10 outlook - Utah should have their hands full with the Horned Frogs. TCU can beat you in so many ways offensively, Utah will have a hard time keeping up with all of them. TCU has been absolutely dominant on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 16 points in their past five games total, including two shutouts. As explosive as Utah is, no one puts up big points on the Horned Frogs. Utah has also had some troubles with turnovers this season, a trend that could bury them in this game. TCU has never won in Salt Lake City, until Saturday, that is. Boise should be able to top the high flying Hawaii offense, and stay unbeaten. East Carolina will try to follow Duke's blueprint and get out to a big lead on Navy to try and beat them. Tulsa should follow their big upset of Notre Dame with a win over Rice. Central Florida has a chance to really put any doubts about who the best C-USA team is to rest with a win over Houston. That win could put SMU back in first in the west, despite a loss to Houston. The Knights were very impressive against ECU, and I expect no less against Houston. SMU needs to beat UTEP to take advantage of a Houston loss, and UTEP is in a serious funk right now, and I expect the Mustangs to get it done.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - The one league where I feel that a one-loss team can certainly jump over Boise or TCU into the title game if Auburn falls.
2. Big Ten - The depth keeps the Big Ten this high. MSU, Wisconsin, OSU and Iowa are great, but it's the next wave of Illinois and Northwestern that keeps the Big Ten here.
3. Big 12 - Nebraska and Oklahoma are legit top 15 teams, but the others (Mizzou, Baylor, Oklahoma State) all have some serious flaws, most of them on the defensive side of the ball. I mean, seriously, wasn't Missouri supposed to have a good run defense? Maybe Roy Helu Jr. can tell us about that.
4. Pac-10 - Still Ducks, Stanford and Arizona that provide the strength. Oregon State and USC have been good, but not as good as 4th and 5th in any of the above leagues.
5. Mountain West - Utah and TCU keep rolling and San Diego State at 6-2 overall with a close loss to Missouri on the road is a solid number 3. Two top 5 teams can make any league look good.
6. ACC - Virginia Tech, NC State and Florida State are the top 3 here, and none of them are ranked higher than 22. What really hurt this league is the losses by Miami and Clemson, as well as recent struggles by UNC and Georgia Tech.
7. WAC - Boise, Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno are all pretty solid. It doesn't quite match the top of the ACC, but Boise would be the best team in that league if they were there.
8. Conference-USA - Central Florida is starting to deserve real consideration for the top 25, and East Carolina, Houston, and SMU have all been solid as well. Southern Miss is also a mainstay near the top of the league.
9. Big East - If Pitt and Syracuse keep winning, at least the top of the league can gain some credibility. The rest of the league is still garbage, but at least the Panthers and Orange are starting to get some top 25 votes. Somehow, 'Cuse has more votes than Pitt in both polls despite losing to the Panthers 45-14.
10. MAC - The tight division races make the league fun, but there really isn't much depth beyond the contenders. There are some really bad teams at the bottom of the MAC with 6 out of the 13 teams eliminated from bowl eligiblility with 3 games left.
11. Sun Belt - It's like they're there. They're trying. But let's not kid ourselves, no one notices.
MY TOP 25
1. Oregon - 8-0 (prev. 1)
2. TCU - 9-0 (2)
3. Boise State - 7-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 9-0 (4)
5. Utah - 8-0 (6)
6. Alabama - 7-1 (5)
7. Nebraska - 7-1 (10)
8. Wisconsin - 7-1 (8)
9. Ohio State - 8-1 (9)
10. Stanford - 7-1 (13)
11. Oklahoma - 7-1 (15)
12. Arizona - 7-1 (16)
13. LSU - 7-1 (14)
14. Iowa - 6-2 (17)
15. Michigan State - 8-1 (7)
16. Missouri - 7-1 (11)
17. Arkansas - 6-2 (18)
18. Oklahoma State - 7-1 (21)
19. Virginia Tech - 6-2 (19)
20. South Carolina - 6-2 (20)
21. Baylor - 7-2 (24)
22. Mississippi State - 7-2 (23)
23. North Carolina State - 6-2 (UNR)
24. Florida State - 6-2 (12)
25. Nevada - 7-1 (UNR)
Dropped from Rankings: Miami FL (22), East Carolina (25)
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