We have finally arrived at the last weekend of the college hoops regular season, and things are still a jumbled mess. Earlier in the week I talked about how many of the teams at the top have been scuffling and how there were no dominant teams this season. BYU recently joined the list of the struggling top 10 teams with an emphatic loss to New Mexico in their first game after kicking leading rebounder Brandon Davies off the team for breaking the school's honor code. Even with all of the chaos and strife amongst the top teams in the country, the top 4 seeds finally seem to be coming clear. Thanks to Texas losing a few ballgames and the BYU loss, it seems that Kansas, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Ohio State are pretty much locked in to the top seed line. If any of them suffer an unexpected early conference tourney upset, a team like Purdue or Texas could sneak back in there, but that seems unlikely. The real mess in this tournament is at the bottom of it, with the bubble teams.
Nobody on the bubble seems to want to be in the tournament, pretty much following up each good win with a loss to teams they should handle without a problem. Colorado and Nebraska each lost to Iowa State after wins over Texas. Baylor followed its win over Texas A&M with a double-digit loss to Oklahoma State. Virginia Tech toppled Duke, and then promptly lost to Boston College. The Eagles were no strangers to bad defeats themselves, losing to Miami in the last couple of weeks. Every time a team gets to a point where we feel like they are pretty safe, they go and lose a game they have no business losing. It really is making it very hard to separate who's in from who's out. If you do the math, you know that there are 68 teams getting into this tournament, 31 automatically by winning the conference tournament or the Ivy League regular season title, and 37 by an at-large bid. As of right now, there are 57 spots pretty much filled, whether its an automatic qualifer from a one-bid league or a team that should feel pretty safe for an at-large bid. That leaves just 11 spaces between about 21 teams that have a realistic chance. Marquette, Michigan State and Georgia aren't sure things, but they certainly look like tournament teams at this point. that drops it down to 8 spots for 18. Those 18 teams are:
Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson, Michigan, Illinois, Baylor, Nebraska, Colorado, Washington State, Alabama, Utah State, Richmond, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Butler, UAB, Missouri State, and Colorado State.
Life on the bubble could get a lot easier if a few of those teams win their conference tournaments. Missouri State, Utah State, UAB, and Butler should all be favored to win their tourneys while St. Mary's or Gonzaga will likely win the one in the WCC. If they all come out on top, that cuts it to 13 teams fighting over 8 spots. If Illinois beats Indiana, they will likely be in as will Michigan if they can top MSU. Clemson would likely be out with a loss to Va Tech and Baylor also with a loss to Texas. Colorado and Nebraska square off in what will essentially be an elimination game. If these things all play out, we're talking about 6 teams vying for 8 spots. In that scenario, you would feel pretty good about Richmond and if the Gaels and Zags meet in the final of the WCC tourney, the loser would likely get in as well. That would leave Virginia Tech, Boston College, Colorado State, Alabama, Washington State, and the winner of Colorado/Nebraska looking at 4 remaining spots. If this does play out, it's gonna be hard to complain if you are on the outside looking in. More likely, all of this talk will mean nothing once the conference tournament chaos ensues. If things continue the way they're going, we should be waiting on selection Sunday to see what teams that limped into the finish will be rewarded with a tourney berth. At least this year, those last 4 into the field have to prove they belong there by playing a first round game just to get to the field of 64. So that's where the tournament picture stands, now lets look at the games for the weekend to close out the season, and see who can make one final statement before the tourneys get rolling next week.
Saturday 3/5:
Kansas @ Missouri (12pm et): This game should be a lot of fun. Kansas certainly has a lack of depth with Thomas Robinson still sidelined, and the uptempo Tigers will keep the Jayhawks gasping for air. Mizzou still doen's know how to win on the road, but this game will be in Columbia, where they are at their best. Look for Marcus Denmon to be the key for Mizzou, and the Morris twins need to try and conserve energy to be able to play as many minutes as possible.
My pick: Kansas
Louisville @ West Virginia (12pm et): The Cardinals have overacheived all season long, and there isn't a lot of reason to believe that will stop this weekend, but the Mountaineers have been tough lately, and the game is in Morgantown. The loss of Rakeem Buckles hasn't slowed L'ville down yet, but West Virginia has plenty of big bodies to throw at them in Kevin Jones, John Flowers, and Deniz Kilicli. WVU also should be more motivated since Louisville has already clinched a double-bye in the Big East tournament while the Mountaineers need to win this game to clinch a first round bye.
My pick: WVU
Virginia Tech @ Clemson (12pm et): This one has huge bubble implications. Tech doesn't seem to know how to get off the bubble, and with their recent history they'll likely lose this one so that they really don't know whether they are in or not til the selection show. Clemson is in even worse shape than the Hokies as of today, but that could change if the Tigers take care of VT. The point guard matchup should be a real treat with Malcolm Delaney up against Demontez Stitt, one of the best offensive point guards in the ACC against one of the best defensive ones. Delaney's offensive production should be a key to the game's outcome.
My pick: Virginia Tech
Duquesne @ Richmond (12pm et): This game is only mentioned because the Spiders can't afford to overlook the Dukes. Duquesne got off to an 8-0 start in A-10 play this year before coming back to earth, so they can be dangerous. Kevin Anderson needs to have his teammates ready, because a loss here could be devastating to Richmond's at-large hopes.
My pick: Richmond
Indiana @ Illinois (12pm et): The Illini had better be prepared to play in this one. They have been sporadic of late, and Indiana has the kind of athletes that can make you pay if you come into a game sleepwalking. Illinois has only lost at home to Purdue and Ohio State in Big Ten play, so they seem to play better with the support of the home crowd, but they have to stay focused in this game. They need to move well without the ball to get good looks in the post for Davis and Tisdale, because they can't continue to rely on outside shooting to bail out lazy play.
My pick: Illinois
Georgia @ Alabama (1:30pm et): Mark Fox's squad has been pretty strong all year, not losing a game to a team with an RPI outside of the top 50. Alabama was miserable in the nonconference before steamrolling through the early part of the SEC schedule. Anthony Grant's young team would finish the season 12-4 in conference with a win over the Bulldogs, which would have to make the committee take notice of them, but Georgia is tough. Look for the Bulldogs to take care of business against the Tide behind some strong play from power forward Trey Thompkins, and put to rest any doubt as to whether or not they are in.
My pick: Georgia
Notre Dame @ UConn (2pm et): The Irish are coming off an absolutely unconscious shooting night against Villanova on Monday, and they have to be due to backslide in this one. This is a fun matchup between one of the most veteran squads in the Big East and one of the youngest. Oriakhi should be tough to handle down low, and Kemba Walker should do a good job involving his young teammates if he wants to close out the regular season on a high note. It will be critical to not give Notre Dame open outside shots or they will kill you from out there, as 'Nova learned earlier this week.
My pick: UConn
Georgetown @ Cincinnati (2pm et): The Hoyas have been struggling since the injury to Chris Wright. They've had more than a week off since losing to Syracuse, and hopefully the extra practice time has them ready to exact a little revenge from the Bearcats. Cincy really solidified their tourney resume by beating the Hoyas in DC in the game in which Wright got hurt, but there is plenty at stake in this one. The loser might not get a first round bye in the Big East tournament.
My pick: Georgetown
Michigan State @ Michigan (2pm et): This rivalry showdown could be the best game of the day Saturday. Both teams are on the bubble, and while MSU's strength of schedule should be enough to separate them from the rest of the bubble heap, there are no sure things when you have double-digit losses. U of M is on a bit of a roll lately, and would just about seal up a berth with a home win over the Spartans. Freshman Tim Hardaway Jr. has really been coming into his own, and the Wolverines will certainly be a handful. It's just tough to bet against Tom Izzo in a big lates season game.
My pick: Michigan State
Villanova @ Pittsburgh (4pm et): Villanova is in an absolute free fall right now. They struggled down the stretch last year, and wound up out of the tournament before the sweet 16 as a 2-seed. The way they got dismantled by Notre Dame Monday was embarassing, and now they get to go to Pittsburgh, where it's almost impossible to win a game. The Panthers' bruising style won't be fun for Villanova's guard oriented team, and Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and Travon Woodall will make 'Nova pay again if they don't guard the outside shot. The Wildcats could really use a confidence boosting win right now, but Pitt will be tough since an outright Big East title is at stake for the Panthers.
My pick: Pittsburgh
UCLA @ Washington State (5:30pm et): The Cougars are in pretty much a must-win position going into this game, and they go into it without their best player. Klay Thompson is suspended for the game after being cited for marijuana possession, and that will make the Bruins very tough to beat. If UCLA wins, it solidifies their seeding in the tournament and gives them hope for a shared conference crown if Arizona stumbles agaisnt Oregon State. Look for Reeves Nelson and the Bruins to be fired up for this one.
My pick: UCLA
Cleveland State @ Butler (6pm et): This one is in the semifinals of the Horizon League tournament, and both teams need it bad. Without a conference tournament win, the Vikings are headed to the NIT, and Butler can expect the same if it fails to at least get to the tourney final agaisnt either Valpo or UW-Milwaukee. Norris Cole will likely do some amazing things for Cleveland State, but Butler has a ton of postseason experience and a better overall team. This game should have a lot of intensity.
My pick: Butler
Marquette @ Seton Hall (6pm et): Marquette can't really afford to let a winnable game get away from them. The big thing the Golden Eagles resume rests on is that they have no bad losses. Losing to Seton Hall, even on the road would qualify as one of those. The Pirates are playing well, having beaten red hot St. John's this week, so Marquette had better be ready for a fight. Jeremy Hazell has been a dynamic scorer his whole career for Seton Hall, and he will be a big key for the Pirates in this game.
My pick: Marquette
Florida @ Vanderbilt (6pm et): This game is mainly about seeding implications. Vandy has a little more at stake with a possible first round SEC tourney bye on the line. They are currently tied with Kentucky and Georgia for the spot, but only one can get it so a win here is crucial. Florida has played the most consistent ball in the SEC this year, and would likely get a 3 seed with a win here and a decent SEC tournament showing. The Gators will have to keep after John Jenkins, who has been scoring at will lately. This should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.
My pick: Florida
Duke @ North Carolina (8pm et): This is the marquee game of the weekend, and there are several big games. Duke would absolutely wrap up a one seed with a victory over the red hot Tar Heels. The winner of this game is the number one seed in the ACC tournament and regular season champ. It doesn't get much better for this rivalry. Duke has been fantastic, led by Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, while UNC's recent run has been the result of the improvements of young guys Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes. Barnes has been brimming with confidence lately after knocking down the game-winner against FSU on Wednesday. Duke will try and keep him quiet with Singler on him defensively. That strategy worked in Durham, but will it be effective on the road in Chapel Hill?
My pick: Duke
Texas @ Baylor (9pm et): The Bears, quite simply, need to win this game. They should be terribly overmatched if the Longhorns play up to their capabilities, but Texas has really not done that much on the road lately. They've dropped games to Kansas State, Colorado and Nebraska lately, so a loss to Baylor isn't inconceivable. Texas could really use this win to right the ship into the Big 12 tourney, and Baylor just flat out needs to win.
My pick: Texas
Nebraska @ Colorado (9pm et): This is a bubble elimination game. Neither team has a great resume, but both got a lift from beating the Longhorns at home. Neither team has proved that they can win on the road, but both have been very good in their home gyms. With this game in Colorado, you'd have to favor the Buffs. Alec Burks is a great scorer, and although Nebraska has a good defense, so did Texas and Burks went off on them in Boulder.
My pick: Colorado
USC @ Washington (10pm et): The Trojans certainly don't look like they are going to be a tournament team, but a win over Washington would give them a season sweep over the Huskies and might make some committee members look closer at these two Pac-10 schools. The Trojans do have big nonconference wins over Texas and Tennessee, and two wins over a sure tournament team who is pretty close to them in the standings could give them some reason to complain. The Huskies won't be easy to beat, though.
My pick: Washington
Colorado State @ San Diego State (10pm et): This is the last shot for Colorado State to pad the resume before the conference tournament. The Rams are a long shot right now to get in, and they played SDSU close in Fort Collins. Winning this game is a must. If they don't, it would likely take two good wins to get into the tournament, and the only chances they would have would be in the semifinals and the finals of the MWC tournament. Since winning both of those games would mean winning that tourney, they have to win this game to be an at-large team. Otherwise, it's tourney title or NIT.
My pick: San Diego State
Sunday 3/6:
Kentucky @ Tennessee (12pm et): The Wildcats haven't won a road game against a quality team in a while, and they could really use the confidence boost of taking down the Vols in Knoxville. These freshmen have to learn to win away from Rupp before the tourney, because there won't be any home games there. The Volunteers may be hard pressed to keep all of the UK perimeter shooters in check, since top UT defender Melvin Goins can only cover one guy at a time.
My pick: Kentucky
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (4pm et): This game is about revenge for the Buckeyes. They've only dropped two games all season, and one was to these Badgers. Ohio State doesn't lose in Columbus, and winning against Wisconsin should put OSU in great shape to pick up the number one overall seed in the tournament. This matchup should be just as good as the first one, and it will be all about Wisconsin being able to defend Sullinger without losing the defense on the perimeter shooters. It should be a great game to watch to close out the regular season.
My pick: Ohio State
Ticket Punching Games:
This weekend there will be a couple of games to punch the first few automatic bid tickets to this year's NCAA tournament. The Ivy League title will likely be decided, and the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Ohio Valley, and Missouri Valley tournament titles will be sorted out this weekend. Here's a look at those games:
Saturday 3/5:
Big South Final:UNC Asheville @ Coastal Carolina (4pm et): The Chanticleers dominated the regular season in the Big South, but have a huge cloud of controversy lingering over them as they play without their leading scorer Desmond Holloway due to suspension. The roster is down to 8 active players, and UNC-Asheville will test that limited depth. This one should be tough for CCU, but can they really get this close to the NCAAs two straight years and fall short both times?
My pick: UNC-Asheville
Atlantic Sun Final:Belmont vs. North Florida (6pm et): The Ospreys of North Florida have been impressive in the A-Sun tournament, knocking off the 3rd and 2nd seeds on their way to the finals to play top-seeded Belmont. Belmont is not going to go down so easily. Look for the Bruins to continue the dominating play that got them that top seed and punch their ticket to the big dance.
My pick: Belmont
Ivy League: Princeton @ Harvard (7pm et): This game would punch Princeton's ticket with a win by the Tigers, but a loss would give Harvard a half game lead and likely force an eventual one game playoff between the two for the league crown. Tommy Amaker's Crimson squad would love nothing more than to win this game and have a chance to play their way into the big dance for the first time in a long time, but Princeton won the first meeting and is close to unbeatable in Ivy League play.
My pick: Princeton
Ohio Valley Final: Tennessee Tech vs. Morehead State (8pm et): Morehead State didn't expect to get this matchup in the finals. The two toughest teams in the OVC other them themselves are out before the finals. The Eagles dominated a good Austin Peay team while their stiffest competition, the Murray State Racers, got stunned by Tennessee Tech. Now, the Eagles and star big man Kenneth Faried, fresh off his 21 rebound performance agaisnt the Governors, just have to stay focused and take care of business against Tennessee Tech to earn their second tourney bid in the last 3 seasons.
My pick: Morehead State
Sunday 3/6:
Missouri Valley Final: (2pm et): The matchup is still undecided since the semifinals are on Saturday, but it should be a great game no matter who plays here. Top seed Missouri State plays Creighton in one semifinal, while 2 seed Wichita State gets Indiana State in the other. The Bears survived a big time scare from Southern Illinois in the quarterfinals and is unlikely to play that poorly agaisnt Creighton. Wichita State should be able to overmatch the Sycamores in their semifinal match, which would set up the final everyone wants to see: Shockers vs, Bears. The Bears won the two regular season matchups, but they were both close and it's very hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. Look for a very close, hotly contested final if these two both get there.
My pick: Wichita State
Well, that's it for this weekend. Enjoy the big games, and hopefully your team goes dancing. I'll be back to break down the big conference tourneys next week.
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