1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox (wildcard)
3. Detroit Tigers
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
1. Minnesota Twins: The Twinkies had an interesting 2010 season. They lost closer Joe Nathan for the season in the spring and former AL MVP Justin Morneau for most of the second half but still managed to win the central division. Despite some changes in the offseason, I expect them to win the division again in 2011. The lineup lost a couple of the "pirahnas" that frustrated Ozzie Guillen and opposing managers over the past few seasons. Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, and Matt Tolbert are no longer with the club, and while none of them are names that scare an opposing pitcher, they execute very well in clutch situations like putting a ball in play on the hit-and-run and not striking out in big at-bats. Despite those losses, the Twins have a pretty impressive lineup. Yongsters Alexi Casilla and Danny Valencia, as well as overseas import Tsuyoshi Nishioka should fill the scrapper roles well. Denard Span is still around to set the table, and the biggest plus for this team is that Justin Morneau should be healthy. Joe Mauer, Mike Cuddyer and Jim Thome are no slouches with the stick either, and this is still the type of team that can grind down anyone. The rotation is far from dominant, but Liriano can be, and Pavano, Duensing, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn are going to make you earn every run. They don't walk many hitters, so you will have to go up swinging. The bullpen is a spot of concern, as the team has lost Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch, who were all fantastic last year. But Pat Neshek has been back from surgery for a full season now and should find his old form, and Joe Nathan seems to be healthy and ready to return to his dominant form as well. Throw in Matt Capps and Jose Mijares, and the bullpen is still one to be reckoned with. The Twins have a very solid, balanced team, and Ron Gardenhire always gets more wins out of his teams than the talent says he should, so I think they hold off Chicago and Detroit for the title.
2. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox season will be determined by their starting rotation. The lineup can hit. Gordon Beckham will bounce back this season, and Adam Dunn will hit 40 homers barring injury. Carlos Quentin can hit 30+, but he's injury prone. Alex Rios is back to the potential 30-30 terror he can be, and Paul Konerko just seems ageless. On top of all those guys, they have the speed of Juan Pierre atop the lineup, who stole the most bases he has in a season last year despite being 32 years old. So clearly, this team will score some runs and scare some pitchers, especially in their hitters' park on the southside. The starting pitching is a major uncertainty. Mark Buehrle is as steady as they come, even if he is not spectacular. John Danks has really improved as the seasons have passed, and he may be the best pitcher on the team. The questions start with Gavin Floyd. Floyd was fantastic a couple years ago, but he has regressed the last 2 years. He needs to bounce back to be a top-3 starter in this rotation. Edwin Jackson has been an enigma the last two years. He was downright dominant for the Tigers in the first half of 2009. He faded down the stretch and has been traded twiced since the end of the '09 season. He did fit in a no-hitter for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season, but he has not found the rhythm that made him good for a 3 month stretch. If he can figure out how to get back to the form that made him so strong for the Tigers the first half of '09. Jake Peavy would give the team a big lift if he can give them anything at all. Phil Humber will open the year in the 5th spot, but it will likely be a revolving door until Peavy returns, if he does at all. I expect Floyd and Jackson to be better this season than last, but not return to the great levels they have pitched at in the past. The lineup is very good, and the bullpen should be as well, and the improvements from Floyd and Jackson should be enough to make this team the wild card winner. The Yankees are a better team, but they don't get the benefit of playing Kansas City and Cleveland a whole lot this season. Matt Thornton should be a much better closer than Bobby Jenks was, and Jesse Crain and Chris Sale should be great as well.
3. Detroit Tigers: This squad has been very good over the past couple of seasons, but they never seem to finish strong and it always seems to be their undoing. The lineup has been shuffled around a lot over the past two years, and what's left just doesn't match up with what the Sox and Twins can run out there every day. Miguel Cabrera is a legitimate MVP candidate, but the rest of the lineup is a bit of a patchwork. Alex Avila, Will Rhymes and Ryan Raburn have never been everyday players, but each is slated to start for the Tigers this year. Jhonny Peralta was very solid after coming over to Detroit last season, but over his career he has never been a good hitter for average. Austin Jackson and Brennan Boesch only have one season of big league experience each, and Magglio Ordonez is over the hill. Throw in that Brandon Inge is a career .237 hitter, and it would take monstrous seasons from Cabby and Victor Martinez just to keep this offense scoring runs. I would love to see the Tigers win the division, but the offense just isn't good enough to keep pace without a dominant rotation. They have a dominant top 2 with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer (who was amazing after being sent down last season), but the rest is just ok. Rick Porcello has to take a huge step forward, Brad Penny needs to be very solid, and Phil Coke has to pull a C.J. Wilson in his move to starting for this team to be as good as the Twins. I think Penny will be solid in Comerica, and Porcello at least takes a small step forward, but I really question moving Coke out of the bullpen. He was tremendous out of the pen against lefties last season, and moving him to the rotation leaves a hole in his spot in the pen while also giving you an unproven big league starter. Jose Valverde is lights out in the ninth, but the rest of the pen is not as solid. Joel Zumaya always gets hurt, Ryan Perry is yet to put his great stuff together with good control, and despite his great season for the Rays last year, Joaquin Benoit's career numbers do nothing to suggest that he will repeat last season's performance. It all adds up to far too many questions to be a playoff team. I think Leyland gets them off to a good start, but a fade down the stretch leaves them behind the Twinks and White Sox and hoping to get better for 2012.
4. Kansas City Royals: The Royals lineup is chock full of young, talented boppers, and has a few more just waiting to get called up from the minors, but the pitching rotation, which traded away Zach Grienke, has more question marks than the Riddler's leotard. When your ace is Jeff Francis, who went 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA last year, there are few ways to put a positive spin on it. Francis, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen and Vin Mazzaro make up the rotation that despite having quite a few young guys, has very little upside. If each guy has a career year, the Royals still have only the 4th best rotation in the division. The bullpen isn't a whole lot better, but Joakim Soria is just plain filthy. He's probably been the most consistent closer in baseball not named Mariano Rivera, but the team just doesn't win enough for him to put up big save numbers. Robinson Tejada was strong last year and Jeremy Jeffries has a powerful young arm that can really give this pen a boost. Billy Butler is certainly the team's best hitter, but there are other bats around. Kila Ka'aihue has a powerful bat and will start at first base. Alex Gordon has a ton of talent, but hasn't put it all together yet. Alcides Escobar was a big part of the Grienke trade, and has the ability to steal 20+ bases and hit over .300 with above average defense. The rest of the lineup is filled with role players like Jason Kendall, Mike Aviles and Melky Cabrera, but they have two great young hitters waiting to get a big league shot in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, as well as speedster Lorenzo Cain waiting for a shot at center field. The Royals will be abysmal to start the season, but as they send the young hitters up to the bigs, and some very talented pitchers currently in the minors as well, the team will improve and manage to finish ahead of the Indians at season's end.
5. Cleveland Indians: The Royals rotation is probably the worst in the division, but the Indians aren't far behind. Fausto Carmona is the ace, and he is coming off of a resurgent season, but the rest of the group is unproven. They do have a little more upside than the Royals staff, but they have less talent in the minors on the mound. The little more upside they have is almost all in Carlos Carrasco. Scouts feel like he has the stuff to be a very effective starter, but he has struggled to put it all together. The rest of the rotation is made up of Mitch Talbot, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, none of whom will frighten an AL lineup. The bullpen was decent last year, with Chris Perez being a very talented pitcher to handle ninth inning duties. Tony Sipp could be very good if he can keep the ball in the yard, and Rafael Perez is coming off a strong season and youngster Vinny Pestano had ridiculous K:BB ratios in the minors last year and could be very solid this season as well. If the bullpen can perform above expectations, this team will have a shot to finish above the AL Central basement, but if they struggle, they could land the Indians with the worst record in the league. The lineup needs some veterans who have been injured and ineffective to come back in a big way. Travis Hafner has fallen apart since hitting all those grand slams a few seasons ago, and Grady Sizemore can't keep himself on the field. I see no reason to expect sudden bounce backs from those two, so it will be on the reliable Shin-Soo Choo and a bunch of unreliable youngsters to carry the offense. Carlos Santana should be great this year, but he is coming off a major injury that ended his 2010 season. Asdrubal Cabrera and Orlando Cabrera give the team a veteran middle infield that is less than impressive, and Jack Hannahan has no business starting on a big league club. Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley need to have a really good year to keep the Indians from being one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. I don't see them taking the step forward they need to, and the Indians will be bad all season long. They may be able to keep pace with KC for fourth in the early part of the year, but once the Royals get their talented kids up to the bigs, they will pull away and make Cleveland the worst team in the division.
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