1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays
1. Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox spent the entire offseason loading up on offense to try and keep up with the Yankees all-star lineup. Both teams are stacked from top to bottom on offense, but the Red Sox rotation is a little bit deeper and more talented than that of the Yankees. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to replace Victor Martinez and Mike Cameron really gives this team one of the top 2 or 3 offensive clubs in the league. Even if Jacoby Ellsbury isn't healthy, this team can still put Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro at the top of the order and still have great tablesetters for boppers Crawford, Youkilis, David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez. Basically, the Red Sox are gonna score a lot of runs, and you're gonna have to score a lot to beat them. Jon Lester is a true ace at the top of the rotation, and Clay Buchholz is developing into a very good starter as well. A lot of the team's pitching success will hinge on bounceback seasons by John Lackey and Josh Beckett, and I think both guys will be much better this season. It would be nice to see Dice-K bounce back as well, and he has had a good spring, but rubber-armed ageless wonder Tim Wakefield is still around with his knuckleball as an insurance policy. I think the team would be better served to start Jason Varitek behind the plate because he can handle a pitching staff better, but it looks as though Jarrod Saltalamacchia will open the season as the starter. The bullpen is chock-full of flame throwers after adding Bobby Jenks to Daniel Bard and Papelbon for the late innings. A lot of people expect Papelbon to fall off after his worst season as a closer last year, but I think the skills are still there. I believe he gets back to being an elite closer this year with Bard an elite set up guy. These guys should absolutely win the AL East, and likely will have the best record in the American League at season's end. They are loaded in the lineup, in the bullpen, and the rotation has the talent to be the best in the division if Beckett and Lackey return to form.
2. New York Yankees: I have tried many times over the years to make the bold prediction that the New York Yankees will miss the playoffs, and I once again make that fool's gamble this year. The Yankees offense has just as much talent as Boston's. Robinson Cano was a legitimate MVP candidate a season ago. A-Rod is still A-Rod, even if his numbers weren't superhuman last year, and Mark Texiera won't hit below .270 again this season. The Yanks still boast Brett Gardner and the aging Derek Jeter to set the table for the middle of the lineup, and Jorge Posada finally gets a rest for his knees with a move to DH. All signs point to this team scoring just as many runs as the BoSox this year, but the pitching rotation is the key difference. CC Sabathia is as sure a thing as there is in this league, but there are question marks throughout the rest of the staff. Can Phil Hughes duplicate his numbers from a season ago? Can A.J. Burnett get over the awful 2010 campaign he posted? Can Freddy Garcia still be a productive major league starter? And can Ivan Nova do enough in the fifth spot with his limited experience to stay there? I think most of the answers to those questions are negative. Burnett hasn't been any good in about 5 years, Freddy Garcia is washed up, and I expect at least some regression from Phil Hughes. Nova could be solid, but the rest of the group is really going to struggle, which will make what should be a solid bullpen a little overworked. Joba, David Robertson and Damaso Marte will need to pitch outstanding for this team to have a shot at the east division title. Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera are lights out in the 8th and 9th, but the key will be getting the lead to them. I love the lineup, and I like the bullpen a lot, but I really don't like the rotation outside of CC. I think the Yanks come up just short in the wild card race after finishing behind Boston in the East.
3. Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are not the same team that they have been over the past couple of seasons. They lost superstar Carl Crawford to division rival Boston and workhorse starter Matt Garza and slugging first baseman Carlos Pena to the Chicago Cubs. This team is still young and athletic, but the lineup isn't as strong as it was a season ago. Evan Longoria is one of the best young players in the league, and Manny Ramirez looks set to become a menace to opposing pitchers once again after signing with the Rays. They may have lost a lot of speed with Crawford's departure, but B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist and prospect Desmond Jennings can all run. One of the big keys to the lineup will be how well Dan Johnson swings the bat in place of Pena. He hit a ton of homers in the minors a season ago, but that power has to translate to the big league level. Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist need to provide a little pop as well, and Manny and Johnny Damon need to revert to their past form to help get this lineup to keep up with Boston and New York. One thing with this team that doesn't seem to be a question mark is the pitching rotation. David Price, Jeff Neimann and Wade Davis make for a very dangerous young core, and Jeremy Hellickson is the next possible breakout starter. Andy Sonnastine provides a little insurance as well. If James Shields gets back to the way he pitched before last season, the rotation is the one place this team can be as good or better than the BoSox and Yanks. The bullpen isn't going to match up, however. Tampa lost a lot of peices in the pen in the offseason, including closer Rafael Soriano and middle men Dan Wheeler, Joaquin Benoit, and Grant Balfour. Kyle Farnsworth is far from an ideal closer, and other options Jake McGee and Joel Peralta are unproven. J.P. Howell has closing experience, but is out for the first couple months of the season. It all adds up to a patchwork bullpen that could be a serious achilles heel for the Rays. This team has been very good over the past 3 or 4 years, but they may have a hard time keeping pace this season after some major roster changes. Look for them to keep Baltimore and Toronto behind them, but the playoffs are unlikely.
4. Baltimore Orioles: The O's got a huge lift down the stretch last season after Buck Showalter was hired as manager, and he has made waves this spring by ripping the Red Sox and Yankees in the media. All of that makes Baltimore an intriguing team this year, but even with an infusion of veteran position players, this team is still too young on the mound to be a force in the AL East. The lineup should be as good as it's been in years, with Derrek Lee's veteran leadership, Vlad Guerrero's potent bat, and Mark Reynold's swing-for-the-fences approach, this offense should be fun to watch. Adam Jones and Matt Wieters should continue to improve at the dish while still being good young defensive players. Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts are always steady, and this team believes in itself after the way they finished a season ago. The pitching staff has a lot of potential, but it is very raw. Brian Matusz is the ace of the staff as far as stuff goes, but Jeremy Guthrie is more consistent. Justin Duchscherer is a veteran presence trying to come back from some injury troubles, and young guys Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergesen and Chris Tillman are all trying to take the next step. The bullpen has its issues as well, and all of the pitching uncertainty adds up to a 4th place finish in the east. Kevin Gregg is far from a great closer, and the guys behind him don't inspire much confidence. If the young rotation matures this year and the veteran lineup gels, the O's could push for third, but it seems unlikely.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays were an unexpected .500 team for much of the year last year. They had a ton of homeruns and a ton of strikeouts at the plate, and that likely won't change much this season. Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista are all boom or bust hitters who swing for the fences with little regard for batting average. They have changed things up a little with speedster Rajai Davis being inserted at the top of the order, but there is little discipline at the plate in the rest of the lineup. They will hit a lot of homeruns again, but the lineup will stall at times. The pitching takes a big step back with Shaun Marcum dealt to Milwaukee, and outside of Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, there is no 1 or 2 starter potential in this staff. the rest of the rotation is made up of guys who should be number 5 starters on an average team. The bullpen is better than the rotation, but not by a ton. Frank Francisco should end up as the closer, and he has been successful in that role with Texas, and Jason Frasor is always good, but no one else stands out. The Jays will need someone else in the rotation to step up and the lineup to show more plate discipline than expected to avoid finishing as the worst team in the division. I don't see that happening.
That's all for the AL East. My predictions for the AL Central are soon to follow.
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