Another crazy week in college basketball is in the books, and an unlikely trend continued to come up: The teams in the top 10 of the polls simply cannot avoid finding ways to lose down the stretch of the season. A couple of weeks ago, 7 of the top 10 lost at least one game, with only Duke, SDSU and BYU coming out unscathed. This week Duke and SDSU took hits as well. Throw in that Pitt lost another game, Texas blew a 22-point lead against Colorado, number 10 Arizona lost twice, and number 11 Georgetown did the same, and it was a bad week to be a good team. If not for narrow escapes, Notre Dame and Wisconsin would be among the defeated this week as well. All of this leads you to ask, 'Where are the dominant teams?' Two weeks ago, ESPN experts were talking about Texas as the best team in the country as they rolled through Big 12 play, and now they've been taken down by a couple average conference foes in Nebraska and Colorado. If these two weeks are any indication of what lies ahead, the tournament could be a real mess by the sweet 16, and in the more immediate future, Kansas and Ohio State had better be careful this week with tough games left. No one wants to go into their conference tournament on a losing streak, even if it's just one game. Here's a quick look at the week that was, and the week ahead:
My top 10 after last week: 1.Ohio State 2.Kansas 3.Duke 4.BYU 5.Pittsburgh 6.Purdue 7.Texas 8.San Diego State 9.Notre Dame 10.Wisconsin
WHO'S HAVING A GOOD WEEK:
St. John's: The Red Storm had more than a good week, thy've had a good month with 6 straight wins, many of them over some of the best teams the Big East could throw at them. They beat Pitt a week ago Saturday on a play where star guard Dwight Hardy likely stepped out of bounds, but no matter, the win stands. They followed that by hammering DePaul and taking care of Villanova in Philly this week, and in the process went from number 34 in votes in the coaches poll 2 weeks ago (behind the likes of Coastal Carolina, St. Mary's, Wichita State, and UTEP) to number 15 entering this week. That's quite a climb in such a short period.
Dwight Hardy: He bears mentioning separate from the team for the ridiculous numbers he's put up during the winning streak. Over the last 9 games (in which SJU is 8-1) Hardy has scored 24 points a game on over 50% shooting and 50% on the dot from beyond the arc. He is the biggest part of the St. John's turnaround this year under Steve Lavin.
Reeves Nelson, UCLA: The Bruins athletic forward had a huge week in two big wins for UCLA, putting up 12 points and 12 boards in a comfortable win over Arizona State, and then piling up 27 and 16 in a blowout win over Arizona that knotted the Bruins with the Wildcats atop the Pac-10 standings. It was nice to see UCLA get some wins by big margins after seeing them play so many close games against lesser competition this season.
Virginia Tech: What a difference a week makes. The Hokies were in a terrible position a week ago after letting the Virginia Cavaliers complete a season sweep of them. Beating Duke on Saturday makes up for that loss and puts Va. Tech right back on track to be playing in the big dance. Nothing is certain yet for the Hokies, but they have to like their chances much better today than they did before Saturday's win.
BYU: The Cougars finished off the season sweep of the San Diego State Aztecs last Saturday in the biggest game of the weekend, and thanks to the struggles of the teams ahead of them are now in the driver's seat for a number one seed in the tournament. It's likely they will have to get to the finals of the MWC tournament and face SDSU one more time to lock up a one seed, but even a loss in that third matchup shouldn't bump them from the one line. Jimmer and the Cougars are certainly far ahead of where anyone expected them to be at the season's outset.
WHO"S NOT HAVING A GOOD WEEK:
Texas: The Longhorns have no excuse that can explain away the collapse against Alec Burks and the Buffs, and the choke job likely cost them a number one seed. That could be a good thing since Rick Barnes's teams struggle with high expectations in the tourney, but the confidence of that vaunted defense could be shot after the 91 points they allowed Colorado to drop on them. It will be crucial for Texas to regroup and refocus as they still have to take on Kansas State and Baylor before the Big 12 tournament.
Georgetown: The Hoyas dropped two big games this week to Cincinnati and to hated rival Syracuse, and even worse, lost starting point guard Chris Wright to a broken hand for the next couple of weeks. Even though role players like Nate Lubick and Julian Vaughn stepped up with Wright out, it still wasn't enough to pull out a win this week. The Hoyas will be in serious trouble if Wright takes longer than expected to get back out there.
Boston College: The Eagles lost a game they really couldn't afford to lose at home against Miami. Now they likely have to win their remaining games at Virginia Tech and home against Wake Forest and also have a good showing in the ACC tournament to like their at-large chances. Not a good position to be in for such an inconsistent team.
Villanova: The Wildcats have got to get out of this late season swoon. They've dropped four of their last six, and the two wins were close against Big East bottom-feeders. Things don't get any easier this week with games against the top two teams in the conference on the road, Pitt and Notre Dame. The Wildcats definitely need to win one of those games to have any confidence going into the Big East tourney at MSG.
Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers (I love that mascot) have been pretty dominant in the Big South conference this season, at least until the last 2 weeks. After opening league play 14-0, CCU has dropped 2 of their last 4, including one to the league's worst team, Gardner-Webb. This is a Chanticleer squad that won the regular season title last year in the Big South only to lose in the conference tournament, and the recent struggles make them appear beatable once again. They draw Gardner-Webb once again to open the conference tournament, and avenging the loss will hopefully get this squad back on track to the NCAAs.
GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK:
Monday 2/28:
Villanova @Notre Dame (7pm et): The Wildcats are absolutely falling apart while Notre Dame survived a couple tough games last week without a loss. Both teams are locks for the tournament, but Villanova's seed is in a free fall right now. If they can't win one of their final 2 regular season games, they could fall all the way to a 7 or 8 seed. These teams are both perimeter oriented, but the key for 'Nova will be to speed up the game. Notre Dame plays smart, but they are not as athletic as the Wildcats. If the Wildcats use that advantage, they could certainly pull off the win in South Bend.
Kansas State @ Texas (9pm et): Texas needs to stop the bleeding after some recent struggles, and K-State is finally playing like the team they were supposed to be at the start of the year. The frontcourt is finally coming together as well with improved play by Rodney McGruder and a few others. Texas will need Dogus Balbay to clamp down on Jacob Pullen for Texas to win this one. It should be one of the best games of the week, and a meaningful one to both squads. Expect a lot of emotion and intensity on both sides.
Tuesday 3/1:
Illinois @ Purdue (7pm et): The Fighting Illini haven't had a lot of fight lately. Their tournament status may be in jeopardy if they continue to struggle down the stretch. Now, Illinois isn't expected to win at Purdue, but winning this game will put an end to all the questions about whether or not the Illini are on the bubble or in the field. They will most certainly be in if they can beat the Boilers. That won't be very easy for a team that gets lazy on offense squaring off against one of the most intense defensive schemes in all of college basketball. Look for the Boilers to win by double digits and keep Illinois in flux as far as the tourney goes.
Alabama @ Florida (7pm et): This has become a must win game for Anthony Grant's team after slipping up against Ole Miss over the weekend. The Crimson Tide had a nice run in SEC play, but that run may be over. The Gators are very tough to beat in Gainsville, and they will be playing angry after getting soundly beaten at Rupp Arena on Saturday. Florida's balance in the starting five makes them very tough to beat, and Alabama isn't likely to be the type of team that can take them down. This one probably ends 'Bama's at-large hopes.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State (7pm et): This is now a "just don't lose" game for the Bears. Beating Texas A&M gave Baylor some hope once again for the big dance, and they get a shot at Texas at home to close the regular season, but they cannot afford a slip-up against the Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater. It's never an easy task to win at Oklahoma State, and Baylor big man Perry Jones will have his hands full with Marshall Moses inside, but the Bears have some weapons on the perimeter in LaceDarius Dunn and Quincy Acy who should give them enough for another win. A loss here would be devastating.
Missouri @ Nebraska (8pm et): Mizzou gets one more shot to beat a team on the road in the Big 12 that is not Iowa State. The Tigers are just 1-6 in league road games after playing only 1 true road game in the nonconference (a win over Oregon). On the flip side of that coin, Nebraska is very strong at home. The 'Huskers are 5-2 at home in the Big 12 and 16-2 at home overall. Nebraska plays a very physical, grinding defense under Doc Sadler, and Missouri likes to get out and run. The contrasting styles should be fun in this one. Whichever side does a better job on the defensive end of not allowing buckets, which allow their opponent to set up on defense better, will have the edge in this one and likely win. Turnovers and field goal percentage will be the key stats in this one. Mizzou needs to get over this road thing before the tourney starts, because they will not be playing postseason games in Columbia.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (9pm et): This game is just a good matchup. There is very little at stake for each team aside from momentum at the end of the season and minor seeding implications. Both teams will certainly be in the tournament. The Wildcats have a ridiculous win streak going at Rupp Arena, but Vandy is a veteran team that can pull off the upset. John Jenkins has been shooting the lights out for the Commodores, and Vandy can defend Liggins, Knight and Miller on the outside. The key will be if Vanderbilt can contain Terrence Jones's scoring and Josh Harrelson's rebounding inside. Vandy's Lance Goulbourne and Festus Ezeli will have their hands full in this one.
Ohio State @ Penn State (9pm et): This is the Buckeyes' last road test of the season, and Penn State is dangerous at home when they get hot. PSU likely will have no answer for Sullinger inside or any of the OSU shooters. The Nittany Lions can get lost on defense when the offense runs effective ball screens, and they have few offensive weapons beyond Taylor Battle. This would be a huge upset for PSU if they can get it, but a double-digit loss is much more likely.
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (9pm et): This game is a big one for both of these teams. The Hokies should be brimming with confidence after taking down Duke at home last Saturday, and Malcolm Delaney, Jeff Allen and Victor Davila are really starting to play well together for VT. Boston College is in slightly worse position than Tech with no wins over Duke or UNC, so a win here feels like a must. The Eagles beat the Hokies by just 2 points in Chestnut Hill a few weeks ago, so these teams are pretty evenly matched. I think the Hokies are coming together at the right time, and edge the Eagles at home to stay on the right side of the bubble for now.
Wednesday 3/2:
North Carolina @ Florida State (7pm et): The 'Noles have struggled since losing Chris Singleton. They're winning the games they are expected to, but they did get thumped by the Terps in Maryland last week. Their tournament status still seems safe, but who knows how much weight the committee will give to this stretch without their star player, since it seems unlikely he will return for the tourney. A win over UNC would certainly make things a little more comfortable in Tallahassee. That win will be tough though, as North Carolina is really playing great ball lately, winning 10 of 11 with the only loss being to Duke.
Connecticut @ West Virginia (7pm et): The Huskies and Mountaineers have both been up and down in Big East play, and both would like to go into the Big East tournament on an upswing. More importantly, both would like to go into the Big East tournament with a bye into the second round. Both currently sit at 9-7 in league play, in a 5-way tie for 7th place. Two of those 5 teams will get a bye in the tournament. A win in this game will be a big step forward towards that bye for WVU or UConn. The key matchup will likely be Jeremy Lamb guarding Casey Mitchell. WVU can struggle to score at times, and Mitchell is a huge catalyst when he is on. Lamb has great length to defend that outside shot, and how WVU counters the UConn defense will be a huge factor in the game's outcome.
UAB @ Southern Miss (7pm et): The Blazers are the one real hope left for C-USA to get a team into the dance as an at-large, but for that to happen, they cannot lose another game before the C -USA tournament final. Southern Miss has been one of the better Conference USA squads this season, so this one will be tough for UAB. Mike Davis has been a great coach down in Birmingham over the past few years, and I like him to get his team to this big road win.
Cincinnati @ Marquette (8pm et): While both Cincy and Marquette look like they will be in the tournament at season's end, that would mean 11 teams from the Big East are in. There is little question that these two teams are numbers 10 and 11 in the league in terms of tourney resume strength, and the loser of this game will likely be viewed as number 11. If the committee has any qualms about putting 11 squads from one league in the tournament, the loser of this game could get the short end of the stick. This game also has implications for a first round bye in the Big East tournament as these teams are also in the 5-way tie. Dion Dixon and Yancy Gates are a tough inside-outside combo for Cincy, but Darius Johnson-Odom, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and the rest of Marquette are always tough to beat.
Clemson @ Duke (9pm et): Clemson is hanging on to the bubble by a thread. A win over the Dukies might put them on a little better footing on that bubble. It certainly won't be easy though, as Duke is just about unbeatable at Cameron Indoor Arena. Look for Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith to light up Clemson and roll to victory.
Texas A&M @ Kansas (9pm et): The Jayhawks are back up to number 2 in the nation after playing pretty well last week while A&M slipped up against Baylor over the weekend. The Jayhawks are still missing Thomas Robinson, and this A&M squad is pretty solid, but they will struggle to match up with the Morris twins inside. If they can contain Marcus and Markeiff, they will have a chance at the big road upset, and to throw a wrench into the Jayhawks plans for a one seed.
New Mexico @ BYU (10pm et): BYU has their sights set on a one seed, and losing to New Mexico is not an option if they want to do that. The Lobos have played their way out of at-large consideration over the past few weeks, but Steve Alford's squad is still dangerous. BYU should be careful, but Jimmer is as tough to stop as ever and the Cougars should come out on top.
Just Don't Lose Games: Several teams on the fringe of the bubble have games on Wednesday night that they can't afford to lose if they want to stay on the bubble. Those games are:
Iowa @ Michigan State (7pm et): Spartans lost by 20 in Iowa City.
Memphis @ East Carolina (7pm et): Tigers don't have a lot of hope, but still a little
Maryland @ Miami (7pm et): Terps still alive, but they won't be if they lose to the 'Canes.
Richmond @ St. Joe's (7pm et): The Spiders are in decent shape, but St. Joe's is not good.
Colorado @ Iowa State (7:30pm et): Buffs back from the dead after beating Texas.
LSU @ Georgia (8pm et): The Bulldogs need to beat the teams they're supposed to
Minnesota @ Northwestern (8:30pm et): The Gophers are desperate for a win
Utah @ Colorado State (9pm et): The Rams have no margin for error after losing to BYU, SDSU
Utah State @ New Mexico State (11pm et): No margin for error for Utah State either
Thursday 3/3:
Tennessee @ South Carolina (7pm et): The Vols have been up and down this year, both on and off the court, but Joe Lunardi still has this team solidly in the tournament as an 8 seed right now. I'm not so sure they are a certainty. Going to South Carolina to play the Gamecocks could be dangerous for Tennessee. Darrin Horn's team is always going to give a strong effort, and Tennessee is very capable of putting up an off night, especially with all the dristractions from the recruiting violations the school is accused of.
Oregon State @ Arizona (9pm et): The Wildcats need to get back on track after losing two games last week, one by a big margin. Oregon State normally plays tough, but the Wildcats will play angry and should take care of business against the Beavers.
UCLA @ Washington (9pm et): This is the biggest game on Thursday, and it should be a fun one. The Bruins need the win to have a shot at the Pac-10 regular season title, but the Huskies may be getting to the point that they need this win to make sure they get into the tournament. U-Dub has a lot of talent, but they don't seem to play the same from one game to the next. UCLA has started to find their consistency behind Reeves Nelson, and this matchup could be an uphill battle for the Huskies.
USC @ Washington State (10pm et): The Trojans have been an enigma this season. They have some huge wins over Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and Washington State as well as a near miss at Kansas. They also have inexplicable losses. They managed to lose to Rider, Bradley, and TCU in the nonconference as well as Oregon State, Cal, and twice to Oregon in league play. It adds up to an NIT team, but it would still be a nice win for Washington State if they can get it. The Cougars really need to keep winning down the stretch to keep any slim at-large hopes they have alive. Klay Thompson is a star, but he needs his teammates to step up and help him get a big home win over USC. A win here and then over UCLA, and people will have to take notice of Wazzu.
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS:
While most of the big boys have another week of conference games before the postseason tourneys begin, the small conferences get ready to lace 'em up for conference tourney games this week. Most of these tournaments don't make national headlines until a winner is crowned, but those automatic bids can certainly make life miserable for some big name teams in the first round. Here is a look at the conference tourneys that get going this week.
Horizon League: March 1st, 4th-5th, 8th - campus sites
Favorite: Butler. Despite struggles this season that had the Bulldogs in the middle of the Horizon pack for part of the year, they rebounded late to get the number 2 seed in the conference tournament to get a double-bye to the semifinals. Ronald Nored, Shelvin Mack, and Matt Howard are a great veteran core that makes this squad the most talented team in the Horizon, and one that should be expected to win the league tournament.
Sleeper: Cleveland State. The Vikings have shown flashes of being a great team for the Horizon league and Norris Cole has put up some ridiculous numbers at times this season. While UW-Milwaukee has the double-bye to the semi's it's Cleveland State who poses the biggest threat to Butler. They should be in a rhythm by the semifinals while Butler will have been sitting for a week getting rusty. That should be a great matchup for Cole and the Vikes.
Player to Watch: Norris Cole, Cleveland State. There's more than just a flat-top haircut on this kid that merits a second look. Cole is capable of putting up 30+ points on any given night, and he can rebound and pass as well. If the Vikings are going to go dancing, they will do so on Cole's back.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. If Butler wins, they have plenty of experience in the tourney as last year's runner-up to Duke. Their slow-down style will keep them in any game if they are hitting their 3's, and they just know how to win tournament games. They have a proven track record as a program of knocking off the big boys in March. The Sweet 16 is a real possibility. If it's Cleveland State, Norris Cole always gives you a puncher's chance. With a favorable matchup, the Vikings can certainly pull of a first round upset as well.
Big South: March 1st, 3rd, 5th - campus sites
Favorite: Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are 16-2 in league play and are the clear favorite to represent the league in the tournament. It bears mentioning that they did drop 2 games in the last 2 weeks and lost in this tournament as the favorites last year, but they likely have learned their lesson and are poised to take care of business this time around.
Sleeper: UNC-Asheville. You would expect 2-seed Liberty here, but they have dropped 4 straight to close the regular season, and so UNCA is the default sleeper. No one is likely to take down CCU, but UNCA is as good a pick as any to be the team that might take the Chanticleers down.
Player to Watch: Desmond Holloway, CCU. The junior guard has been Coastal Carolina's best player and will certainly be a big factor if CCU is to get to the NCAAs. He's averaging 18.5 points and 7 boards a game for the Chanticleers, and will likely play big in the Big South tourney.
NCAA Tourney win chances:OK. It depends on the seed and matchup for CCU, as a 15 or 16 seed is likely a death sentence, but a 13 or 14 gives them a shot. The Chanticleers are experienced, and could really make a game of it if they hang around with their first round opponent into the second half.
Atlantic Sun: March 2nd-5th - Macon, GA
Favorite: Belmont. The Bruins are the clear favorites for the conference tourney title after a 19-1 regular season conference mark, and there isn't even a close second. This team is very balanced and should be tough for any A-Sun team to take out.
Sleeper: East Tennessee State. The Pirates were second in the A-Sun at 16-4, and seem like the only team other than Belmont with a realistic shot of winning in Macon. The chances are not great after being beaten by the Bruins by 10 each time they met during the season, but no one else really has any chance.
Player to Watch: Mike Smith, ETSU. Smith is the Pirates leading scorer at nearly 17 points a game to go along with 7 boards and 2 assists. at 6-6, the senior guard has the size to be a weapon against Belmont in the finals. He will have to play very well in that game for ETSU to have a chance.
NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Belmont has had some run-ins with high seeds in the tourney in the past, and they normally put a scare into them. This squad is balanced and well coached, and 3 of their 4 losses were by single digits to Tennessee (twice, once by just a point) and and Vanderbilt. The Bruins are certainly capable of pulling off a first round upset and should be a team to keep an eye on when the field is announced.
Ohio Valley Conference: March 2nd-5th - Nashville, TN
Favorite(s): Murray State, Morehead State: The Racers won this tourney last year and Morehead won it the year before. The Racers are the number one seed after winning the regular season title by just a game, beating the Eagles last Thursday. Expect these two to meet in the finals without question. Anyone else getting there would be at least a mild surprise.
Sleeper: Austin Peay. The Governors are tied in the standings with Morehead State and are the 3 seed in this tournament. They have some experience of their own in the big dance over the past decade or so, but this isn't their tourney to win. They have to take it from first Morehead in the semis, then Murray St. in the finals.
Player to Watch: Kenneth Faried, Morehead State. Faried broke Tim Duncan's NCAA record for career rebounds this season and he really is the Morehead State team. Few squads this season have had an answer for him this year, and few in the conference tourney will. Faried is averaging 17.6 points, a ridiculous 14.2 rebounds, 2 steals and 2.1 blocks per game for the season. Few players can match that kind of stat line for one night, let alone for a season.
NCAA Tourney Win Chances: Low. Unfortunately for the OVC, Murray St. and Morehead St. failed to really impress in the nonconference, and the balance at the top with the Racers, Eagles, Governors and even Tennessee Tech have kept any of these teams from an impressive resume. As a result, these teams are looking at a 15 or 16 seed should they win. Most 1 or 2 seeds will be able to find an answer for Kenneth Faried. Murray State could pose a tougher test for a 2 seed as they are very experienced, returning most of a squad that upset Vandy in the first round a year ago, and they have great balance. A win is unlikely for the Racers, but they have a better shot at an upset than the Eagles.
Patriot League: March 2nd, 6th, 11th - campus sites
Favorite: Bucknell. The Bison are heavy favorites after going 13-1 in the Patriot league, and they definitely would like to get back to the big dance this year. Few teams pose a serious threat, but anything can happen in this one-and-done scenario.
Sleeper: Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks don't jump out as a sleeper in this field with a losing conference record and the number 4 seed in the tournament, but they did get into the tournament a year ago and certainly could catch Bucknell looking ahead to 2 seed American University in the semis. It would be a shocker Lehigh went dancing again, but this team is a sleeper for one main reason: C.J. McCollum.
Player to Watch: C.J. McCollum, Lehigh. McCollum is an explosive scoring guard who averages almost 22 points and just under 8 rebounds a game, and can be a real thorn in the side of Bucknell in the semifinals, and American if they get to the finals. If the Mountain Hawks are to live up to the sleeper status, it will be because of McCollum.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Bucknell has some past tournament success advancing to the second round two straight years a little while back, but this Bison team is not one of those two. Bucknell will likely be a 15 or 16 seed, and will have little to no shot at an upset. The chances are lower if anyone else wins, as anyone not named Bucknell will likely be put in a play-in game just to get a crack at a 1 seed.
America East: March 3rd, 5th-6th, 12th - Burlington, VT
Favorite: Vermont. The Catamounts are the class of the league this season, and should be the team expected to win the automatic bid. The Terriers of Boston should be considered as well as the 2 seed, but this tourney is Vermont's to lose.
Sleeper: Maine. This is a difficult to peg Black Bear team. They lost 5 of their first 6 games, then won 12 of 14 games including wins over Penn State and each of the other top 4 America East teams. They then proceeded to drop 6 out of their last 7 to fall to the number 3 seed in the tourney. If they can recapture the magic they found in the middle of the season, Maine can make a run in this thing.
Player to Watch: John Holland, Boston U. He's the best scorer on any of the top America East teams at over 19 points per game, and the forward also chips in 5.7 rebounds. He will have to play well to give the Terriers a good shot at winning the automatic bid.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. Vermont is the only squad here that could pull of a first round win, and that would take everything in that game going perfectly for them. Don't expect it and don't pick an AEC team to get to the second round.
Northeast Conference: March 3rd, 6th, 9th - campus sites
Favorite: Long Island. The Blackbirds run this league for now with a 16-2 conference mark, which gave them a 3 game edge over number 2 Quinnipiac. There are a handful of teams that could be dangerous to LIU in this one, but they are unlikely to unseat this one seed.
Sleeper: Robert Morris. The Colonials are the one of the 2 teams that handed LIU a loss during the season, and they would certainly like another chance to get the Blackbirds in the finals, they would have to get past Quinnipiac in the semis, which is not an impossible task. The Bobcats and Colonials are separated by just a game in the NEC standings.
Player to Watch: Ken Horton, Central Conn. St. This bruising forward averages 20 points, 9 boards, 2 dimes and 1.6 blocks for the Blue Devils and could be a very tough matchup for the Blackbirds in the semifinals. If LIU doesn't come in focused, CCSU could be sending them home early in this tournament.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Blackbirds would be the only NEC team that would dodge a 16 seed, and that's not even for sure. They still could get a 16 as well, but a 15 seems more likely. A first round matchup with any of the 2 seeds would likely still result in a first round loss for LIU. Don't expect much from the NEC champ.
Missouri Valley Conference, March 3rd-6th - St. Louis, MO
Favorite(s): Missouri State, Wichita State. The Bears won the regular season title and took down number 2 seed Wichita State twice in the process. Neither team has secured an at-large bid at this point, so if they meet in the finals, look for a very spirited matchup that could go either way. Beating a team three times in a row is a very difficult task when the talent level is evenly matched.
Sleeper: Evansville. Creighton and Northern Iowa are certainly more likely to come out of this with an automatic bid than the Purple Aces, but the Aces are more of a wild card. Their overall record and conference record are a picture of mediocrity at .500 in both, but they have some surprising wins under their belt. They have beaten Butler, Northern Iowa, Missouri State and Indiana State this season, all teams with better records, and all but Butler higher seeds in the MVC tourney. If the Aces get hot, they can certainly do some damage in St. Louis. They draw Indiana State first, and a win there gets them a shot at Wichita State, one of the few MVC teams they haven't beat yet.
Players to Watch: Kyle Weems, Missouri St., Kwadzo Ahelegbe, No. Iowa. Weems has been the key for the regular season champion Bears scoring 16.3 points and grabbing 7 rebounds a game and being the key frontcourt presence for Missouri State. He will have to continue his consistent play for the Bears to win the tournament and get the at-large bid. Ahlegebe is one of the Panthers remaining from last year's sweet 16 team, and he has been strong in MVC play, scoring over 15 points a game and being the catalyst of UNI's offense. For the Panthers to have any chance of getting back to the dance, Ahelegbe will have to be on his game.
NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Both Missouri State and Wichita State are capable of pulling off an upset. No one below the top 3 lines is a sure bet to get to the second round, and whichever team gets out of this league will likely be a 12 or 13 seed and have a real shot at an upset. Northern Iowa would also be a tough tourney draw in the first round.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference: March 4th-7th - Bridgeport, CT
Favorite: Fairfield. The Stags are the 1 seed and are the best bet to come out of the Metro Atlantic. Siena has fallen way down the standings after dominating this league the past couple of seasons, and a new crop of teams has climbed to the top. Fairfield, at 15-3 in MAAC play is the best of that crop.
Sleeper: Iona. The Gaels are the 3 seed in this tournament, but they are on a tear, winning 7 straight coming into this. 2 seed Rider has won 5 straight of their own, but Iona is brimming with confidence after closing the regular season with a win over Fairfield. Both are capable of topping the Stags again, but look for the Gaels to be the squad that gets to the final.
Player to Watch: Ryan Rossiter, Siena. The Saints are not going to be expected to win more than their opening game, but they won't be an easy out for their second round opponent. Rossiter has been there for the past 2 tournament berths for Siena, and he is a dangerous inside presence for them. He's averaged 19 points and 13.3 rebounds on the season, and he could certainly carry the Saints to a win or 2 in the conference tournament.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Low. The MAAC has a history of pulling off upsets in the dance and at least scaring teams early, but this year's Metro Atlantic squads don't seem quite as good as those from years past. Siena had some great talent when they knocked off Ohio State, and Manhattan had a very strong team led by guard Luis Flores in 2003 when they nearly stunned Syracuse in the opening round before the Orange went on to the national title. Fairfield doesn't have that type of talent, and likely will be exiting in the first round.
Southern Conference: March 4th-7th - Chattanooga, TN
Favorite: College of Charleston. The Cougars are the class of the SoCon led by coach Bobby Cremins, and that should show up in the tournament, but there are a lot of other teams that would like a say in this one. Charleston has put a scare into a few big conference teams this year, and should be well tested for this end of the season tourney.
Sleeper: Davidson. Coach Bob McKillop has been very successful in this tourney in recent years, and his Wildcats may be flying under the radar this season. There are other dangerous teams in Wofford and Furman, but it's the Wildcats I would be keeping an eye on.
Player to Watch: Andrew Goudelock, C of C. Goudelock is likely the best player you have never heard of. If you haven't seen him play, you should make time to watch him as he is fantastic. The Cougar guard is a scoring machine dropping 23 points a game and chipping in 4.7 assists and 3.7 boards. He is the reason the Cougars are the favorites and should carry them into the NCAAs.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Somewhat high. Bobby Cremins's squad hasn't pulled off any top level upsets but they have pushed Maryland, North Carolina, and Clemson to the brink. Goudelock isn't the kind of transcendent talent that Steph Curry was who can carry a team to the Elite 8, but he can certainly carry them to one win if he gets going. As usual, it depends on who they match up with, but if they can avoid an elite defensive guard in the first round for Goudelock to match up with, the Cougs can make some noise.
West Coast Conference: March 4th-7th - Las Vegas, NV
Favorite(s): Gonzaga, St. Mary's. There is no question what this tournament is about. the Gaels and Bulldogs split the season series and tied atop the conference at season's end. Both teams feel like they belong in the big dance, and a third matchup between the two to make sure of a berth for one feels inevitable. Both teams will receive double byes and need only one win to square off against the other in the finals next Monday. If last Thursday's showdown in Moraga was any indication, a rematch would be explosive.
Sleeper: San Franciso. The Dons were the third place team in the WCC, and they have a win over Gonzaga under their belt. They haven't been able to beat St. Mary's this year, but it would take until the finals before they would play the Gaels. A bye into the 2nd round of the tournament also is a positive for San Fran.
Players to Watch: Robert Sacre, Gonzaga, Matthew Dellavedola, St. Mary's. These two were both so good in the last meeting between the Zags and Gaels that it wouldn't do them justice to not mention them here. No one on SMC can match up inside with Sacre, who had his way in the low blocks in Moraga. Dellavedola meanwhile, thrives on defenses paying too much attention to star guard Mickey McConnell. He challenges Ohio State's Jon Diebler for the quickest release on a jump shot in the country. If Dellavedola gets just a little bit of space on the perimeter, the ball is going in most of the time.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very high. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are capable of doing serious damage in March. The Gaels went to the sweet 16 a year ago, and while they lost Omar Samhan, they are still capable of winning a game or 2 yet again. Gonzaga can do the same now that they have found a point guard in John Stockton's son to go along with Elias Harris, Steven Gray, and big man Sacre inside.
Colonial Athletic Association: March 4th-7th - Richmond, VA
Favorite: George Mason. The Patriots are winners of a remarkable 15 games in a row, and they have gotten better and gained confidence as the season has gone on. They lack any big wins out of conference, but they have dominated in Colonial play. This team is very solid on the defensive end, and they rebound well. The offense can stall at times, but they have been finding their rhythm down the stretch. Old Dominion would like to have something to say about Mason's favorite status, but to do so they are gonna have to beat them.
Sleeper: James Madison. The Dukes have won several big games in the Colonial including a huge late season win over VCU, and they have played George Mason and Old Dominion tough. This team is capable of surprising some people in this tournament, and if they get by Hofstra or VCU in their second game, they could certainly put a scare into Old Dominion in the semis.
Player to Watch: Andre Cornelius, GMU. This little guard doesn't have great numbers on the season, but he is a spark plug who is giving the offense a lift down the stretch with his outside shooting. I guarantee he hits a few big late-game threes in this tournament, perhaps even one or two in the final, a final I expect the Patriots to win.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very, very good. Old Dominion is very capable of winning a first round game, and with a favorable draw, maybe 2. George Mason might be thinking even bigger. Jim Larranaga's team went to the Final Four just 5 years ago, and they would love to make a similar run this year. The way the Patriots are playing right now, they are a nightmare draw for just about anyone. They are efficient and very capable of beating better teams than they have played so far. Look for Mason to get out of the first round and have a good chance at the Sweet 16.
Sun Belt Conference: March 5th-8th - Hot Springs, AR
Favorite: Florida Atlantic. Former St. John's coach Mike Jarvis looks like he's headed back to the NCAA tournament just as his old team gets itself back to glory. The Owls were the Sun Belt regular season champs at 13-3, and are the prohibitive favorites to win the tournament, but this thing could be wide open.
Sleeper: North Texas. The Mean Green are an odd choice at 7-8 in Sun Belt play, but they have a strong overall record and can really make some noise if they get on a roll. Middle Tennessee State and Arkansas State are also dangerous, but the Mean Green are the defending tourney champs.
Player to Watch: Tristan Thompson, North Texas. Not the Tristan Thompson from the Longhorns of Texas, this one is a guard and the offensive catalyst for North Texas. He's having a great season, scoring 17 points a game and shooting over 40% from 3. The Mean Green need him to play very well, and they can challenge anyone in this wide open conference tournament field.
NCAA Tourney win chances: Very low. The Sun Belt doesn't exactly have a rich history of winning if Western Kentucky isn't the representative in the NCAAs. It seems unlikely WKU will get there, and whoever does will be a huge underdog in their first game. Just about no chance that underdog gets a win.
Summit League: March 5th-8th - Sioux Falls, SD
Favorite: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies played an absolute gauntlet in the nonconference to be better prepared for the Summit schedule and for the NCAA tourney. They came close but just short against Michigan State and Valpo, and beat Tennessee. They also took on Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and West Virginia outside of Summit league action. All those tough games led to an easy 17-1 run through conference play, and make Oakland a heavy favorite to cruise to an automatic bid.
Sleeper: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are always a tough team in the Summit tournament. IUPUI is the one team that bested Oakland in league play, but Oral Roberts played them close twice. If anyone can stop the Golden Grizzlies from running roughshod over the competition in the tournament, it is ORU.
Player to Watch: Keith Benson, Oakland. Benson is easily the best player in the Summit League and the best low post player in any smaller conference in the midwest. In Summit play, the Grizzlies' center averages 18.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and an alarmingly impressive 4.4 blocks per game. Throw in that he shoots 57% from the field, and it's time to just hand the guy conference player of the year. Anyone who wants to beat Oakland had better find ways around Benson, or to get him sidelined with foul trouble.
NCAA Tourney win chances: High. Oakland is the only Summit team that has a chance of a first round upset, but it's not a bad chance. They are certainly not going to get a 16 seed, so they will have a fighting chance. If they are lucky enough to draw a high seed without a good inside presence like Georgetown or BYU, they can put a scare into that opponent. At any rate, their experience against the nation's elite should make them a tough out and make their game fun to watch.
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