Another wild week of this college football season is in the books, and it was filled with surprises on the field and turmoil and controversey off of it. For starters, I aparently am awful at selecting who is going to win games, as I missed on quite a few big ones last weekend. Pretty much every Big 12 game went the opposite of how I thought it would go, and I missed on the two Big East games as well. I was wrong on LSU-Bama, Arizona-Stanford, and a handful of ACC games. Luckily, it was only one week, and I can hopefully reverse my fortunes this week. Aside from just the picks I got wrong, some big on-field storylines from week 10 included the continued demise of Texas, who now may not even get bowl eligible, the resurgence of Iowa State, who fell one point short of taking down Nebraska in overtime, and the complete collapse of Colorado in blowing a 28 point lead in the fourth quarter to Kansas. Those are just from the Big 12. On top of that was the epic shootout between Illinois and Michigan, Demarlo Belcher dropping a pass that would have stunned Iowa, JoePa picking up win number 400 in a comeback win over Northwestern, Oregon, Auburn, TCU, and Boise continuing to roll, Clemson staying alive in the ACC Atlantic race, and North Carolina not giving in just yet in the Coastal. A lot of action over the weekend to be sure. Off the field, all of the drama centered around Cam Newton and the allegations that there were payoffs involved in his recruitment process. Reports surfaced about a few incidents of cheating that occurred at Florida, and it already paints a negative picture of Newton's character. Now these allegations that Cam and his father Cecil both admitted in separate phone conversations that Cam's decision of which school he would attend would come down to money. Newton is the clear Heisman frontrunner on the field, and these NCAA investigations never move quickly. I doubt Newton will be suspended this season, but if he wins the Heisman, and Auburn wins the title, and then the allegations are found to be true later, the NCAA could have a real mess on its hands. Heck, to date, Reggie Bush is the only player to forfeit a heisman trophy over eligibility concerns, and that just happened this season. To have another so soon would really tarnish the credibility of the award and college football as a whole. Hopefully, the investigation turns up nothing, and this season stands as played on the field. In other off the field news, Colorado gave head coach Dan Hawkins the axe this week. Hawkins was supposed to be a homerun hire after turning Boise State into a strong program that can compete on a national level, but the success didn't make the trip to Boulder with him. Hawkins was just 19-39 in almost five seasons at Colorado, without a single winning campaign. The firing was certainly no surprise following the 28-point collapse to the Jayhawks on Saturday, and Hawkins joins former Minnesota coach Tim Brewster on the midseason unemployment list. Some other coaches who should be on the lookout for pink slips this season include:
Mike Locksley, New Mexico - His squad's win over Wyoming was their first of the season, and brought his coaching record to 2-19 in two seasons. Oh, and he also punched out an assistant coach.
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA - Neuheisel is just 14-19 in three years at UCLA, and has just a 7-16 mark in Pac-10 play. The fact that his team went in the tank after Kevin Prince's injury this year doesn't help.
Paul Wulff, Washington State - He's probably about done after a 4-31 start to his coaching career in Pullman. Unless he wins a couple down the stretch he will likely be gone.
Mark Richt, Georgia - The Bulldogs have rebounded from a slow start, but if they fail to get bowl eligible, it might not matter. Richt's track record of success might give him one reprieve if they do end up 5-7 this year.
Rich Rodriguez, Michigan - Rodriguez has had a very interesting 3 years in Ann Arbor, starting 3-9 his first year, then opening year two at 4-0 before dropping 7 of 8 to close that season. So far in year three, the Wolverines are 6-3 and have gotten bowl eligible, but a 7-5 finish would hardly keep Rodriguez totally safe. The biggest safety net Rodriguez has is that all of the offensive personnel were recruited for his system.
Bill Lynch, Indiana - Went to a bowl game in his first season at Indiana, and has only won 2 conference games in the three years since.
Butch Davis, North Carolina - Davis has done a commendable job keeping this squad together despite a serious cheating scandal that got many of his best players suspended, but the fact that the scandal occurred under his watch might get him ousted anyway.
Jim Grobe, Wake Forest - Grobe has always been good at getting the most out of his players, especially when they went to the Orange Bowl in 2006, but it has been a downward spiral since. This year's Deacs have bottomed out, currently sitting at 2-7, and they are 112th out of 120 FBS teams in points allowed per game at 38.8.
Now let's look at the conference races and this week's upcoming matchups:
ACC -
Last week, the ACC was full of surprises. The atlantic division became a wide open race between NC State, Clemson, Florida State, and Maryland thanks to Clemson taking down the Wolfpack and the other two losing to coastal division teams. Clemson must be kicking themselves at this point for their loss to Boston College. If they would have won that game, this would already be a 4-way tie, and Clemson has beaten two of the other three and has Florida State this week. It's crazy to think that the Tigers can go 3-0 against the other three teams in the race and still need help to win the division and get a shot at the ACC title. As it stands, Clemson needs to win out, and the winner of the NC State-Maryland game must lose one more game, most likely NC State to North Carolina or Maryland to FSU. There are a lot of scenarios right now that can determine this thing, but it seems like the Tigers are the most talented team of the bunch, and have the most work to do to get the division crown. NC State has the easiest route to the title, needing to win out against the weakest remaining schedule of anyone in the race. Things are much clearer in the Coastal division, where Virginia Tech is in total control and can all but sew up the division with a win over North Carolina. The Tar Heels won't go down easy, especially after the performance they put on against Florida State last week. It seemed UNC was out of gas after falling to Miami badly, and squeaking by William & Mary, but they showed they still have plenty left in the tank. Miami isn't quite eliminated from the race, but they really need Jacory Harris back. It took a last minute touchdown to get past Maryland this past week, and fill-in quarterback Stephen Morris really struggled until that point. For Virginia Tech to lose the division title, they have to lose two of their remaining games with UNC, Miami, and Virginia.
ACC week 11 picks - Boston College over Duke, North Carolina State over Wake Forest, Maryland over Virginia, Virginia Tech over North Carolina, Clemson over Florida State, Georgia Tech over Miami
Week 11 outlook - Duke is finally starting to play some solid football, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They've put up back-to-back nice wins over Navy and Virginia and dropped 89 combined points in the two games. Boston College has one of the stingiest defenses in the conference though, especially over the last month. Look for the Eagles to slow down Duke's passing attack enough to pull off the victory. The NC State Wolfpack is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Clemson last week, but they get the worst defense in the league this weekend to help fix that heartbreak. Russell Wilson and the 'Pack will likely reach 40+ points without breaking a sweat in this easy win. Maryland is entering a must-win game against the Virginia Cavaliers this weekend. A victory keeps them tied atop the atlantic division. Virginia came up with a big win over Miami a couple weeks ago, but followed that up with a bad loss to Duke. Maryland isn't a great team despite a strong overall record, but they are better than the Cavs and should win, even in Charlottesville. Miami got things back on track against Maryland late, but Georgia Tech is a tougher all-around team. Jacory Harris is still out, and Georgia Tech can pressure the quarterback a little bit. Without Damian Berry to spark the running game, it will put the burden on Graig Cooper to have success running the ball to keep Stephen Morris upright. Miami has a sensational defense that should at least slow down GT's triple option running game, but the 'Canes have to score some points to win. I think Tech comes out on top over the beat up Miami offense in a low scorer, somewhere around 19-17. Virginia Tech had a bit of a scare last week against Georgia Tech, and now gets a tough North Carolina team trying to derail their 7-game winning streak. Tyrod Taylor has done a great job leading the offense after a tough first two games, and running back Darren Evans has been solid as well. UNC has an unsettled running back situation, and Virginia Tech will likely put a lot of pressure on that Carolina offense in this one. They have made some very good quarterbacks look bad, and Tyler Yates will likely be the next opposing signal-caller to struggle against the Hokies. The key for UNC to stay in the game will be limiting turnovers and hitting big plays against a D that has given up a few of them. I like the Hokies by a touchdown in this one though. In the final ACC contest of the week, Clemson and Florida State square off in Tallahassee in a pivotal atlantic division clash. Both of these teams have had strong balanced offenses, but with Andre Ellington ailing for Clemson, and Christian Ponder banged up for the 'Noles, whichever team can maintain that balance despite the injuries will likely win this one. Both of these teams need to win to remain in the hunt for the ACC title, but I think Ponder's injuries continue to slow FSU down. Clemson will unleash explosive end Da'Quan Bowers on Ponder this Saturday, and the result should be a Tiger win. It won't be a rout, but i think Clemson stays alive in the race for now.
Big East -
Week 10 in the Big East was yet another chance for the teams to run away from the top 25 rather than towards it. West Virginia fell from the rankings a few weeks ago, but Syracuse was creeping towards it. Of course, the Orange lost the second people started to believe they were decent. I haven't successfully picked the winner of a Syracuse game in about a month, and I have no clue if I will do so this week. With 'Cuse's loss, the Pitt Panthers are no longer just in front of the Big East, they are running away with it. At 3-0, the Panthers have a two game lead on the entire conference, and no one behind them is good enough to offer real competition. The Panthers will likely win out, but West Virginia and South Florida will offer some resistance. If that happens, the Panthers will without a doubt be ranked at year's end and will not look quite as foolish in a BCS game. South Florida and Louisville have been getting themselves together of late, and their matchup against each other could put the winner in position for a run at second place.
Big East week 11 picks - Pittsburgh over UConn, West Virginia over Cincinnati, Louisville over South Florida, Syracuse over Rutgers
Week 11 outlook - Zach Frazer has been an upgrade at quarterback for the Huskies over Cody Endres and Michael Box, and the team pulled off a win over West Virginia with Frazer in there. Unfortunately for UConn, Pitt is absolutely rolling right now, and the Pitt backfield duo of Dion Lewis and Ray Graham will be too much for the Huskies to stop. Pitt should roll by two scores. In Morgantown, it will be a question of which unit will be more inept, the Cincinnati defense or the West Virginia offense. The Mountaineers have a heck of a playmaker in Noel Devine, but he doesn't seem to make enough plays in the red zone with only 4 rushing scores in 8 games. I've been burned by believing in Cincinnati earlier in the year, and I think the sieve like Cincy defense gives up just enough to lose to West Virginia in this one. In the South Florida-Louisville game, two teams are squaring off while playing their best football of the year. Bilal Powell is over a thousand yards for the Cardinals and they are coming off a huge win over Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. South Florida, meanwhile, has won two straight over Cincy and Rutgers, and put up two of their 3 highest point totals against an FBS foe this season in those games. Moise Plancher and B.J. Daniels have led the charge for the Bulls, but this next game should be a good one. I think the raucous crowd at Papa John's Stadium will be enough of a boost to the Louisville defense to slow down the Bulls in this one. Look for two touchdowns out of Bilal Powell in another strong game, and a close win over South Florida. In the other Big East game this week, Rutgers and Syracuse look to get back on track after tough losses last week. I'm gonna give Syracuse another chance this week. I think the Orange will do a great job af bouncing back from the loss to Louisville. Rutgers is a tough squad, but freshman qb Chas Dodd still has some things to figure out, and Syracuse's defense will not let Mohammed Sanu and the "Wild Knight" formation beat them. I like 'Cuse in another close Big East showdown.
Big 12 -
The Big 12 certainly had the most topsy-turvy week 10 in the college football world. The race for the south division title appears to be wide open all of a sudden with losses by Baylor and Oklahoma, and a recent winning streak by Texas A&M. About the only teams that appear out of the race are Texas and Texas Tech. That's a pretty steep drop for a Texas team that was ranked number 4 in the preseason. Oklahoma State has the most control of the division, but they travel to Austin this week and host the Sooners to close the season. The north division was almost equally wild if only Iowa State had converted the two-pointer to beat Nebraska. If the Huskers had gone down, Iowa State would actually lead the north at 4-2 while Nebraska and Missouri would each be 3-2. With the narrow win, the Cornhukers have just about wrapped up the division, and a win over lowly Kansas this weekend will secure their place in the Big 12 title game. Little has been certain in this conference the past few weeks, and more upsets are likely before the season is done.
Big 12 week 11 picks - Missouri over Kansas State, Iowa State over Colorado, Nebraska over Kansas, Oklahoma State over Texas
Week 11 outlook - Colorado is in too much turmoil as a team this week after collapsing and allowing a 28-point comeback to Kansas and losing head coach Dan Hawkins. I don't expect a focused team on Saturday, and the improved Iowa State Cyclones will take care of Colorado, even in Boulder. Kansas should be flying high after their historic comeback over the Buffs last week. Unfortunately for Kansas, that magic won't continue this week, especially with T-Magic Taylor Martinez back for Nebraska. The Jayhawks didn't follow up their upset win over Georgia Tech with any other strong performances, and they won't follow up this win very well either. Nebraska is just too good to be stopped in this one. Big Red wins by at least 3 touchdowns. Missouri finally learned how difficult life on the road can be as they have dropped two straight games away from Columbia. The most recent loss was to a Texas Tech team that really shouldn't have been able to beat the Tigers. Mizzou now draws a Kansas State team that was up on Texas a week ago 37-0 before taking their foot off the gas pedal. Lucky for Missouri, they get to go back home for this one. They have been impressive at home with wins over Oklahoma and San Diego State. Kansas State beat Texas with a very one dimensional attack, and Missouri's defense will not allow that to happen to them. I think Blaine Gabbert gets the offense rolling again, and the Tiger defense slows down Daniel Thomas and K-State just enough to pull off the win. Oklahoma State plays in the most important Big 12 game of the week against Texas. The Longhorns are collapsing fast. There are no guarantees that Texas will even get to a bowl game, as they have to beat either Oklahoma State or Texas A&M to get there. They allowed Kansas State to roll up a 37-point lead last week, and the Cowboys have a much better offense than the Wildcats. There is no one in the Texas secondary that can contain Justin Blackmon, and if they double-team him, Weeden will find all of the other weapons in his arsenal. Kendall Hunter is too good a runner for the Longhorns to not leave seven in the box, and as a result Texas will have to pick their poison between the ground game and passing game, and no matter which they choose, it won't end well. I like the Cowboys to win by multiple scores in Austin.
Big Ten -
While there weren't a whole lot of season-changing games on the slate last weekend in the Big Ten, it didn't mean the league was devoid of any excitement. If Indiana had finished off their improbable upset of Iowa, that might have been season-altering in the Big Ten, but it was not to be. Demarlo Belcher simply couldn't hang on to Ben Chappell's pass as he fell to the ground in the end zone, allowing Iowa to hold on to a share of first in the conference. If that game wasn't exciting enough, the showdown in Ann Arbor was an instant classic. Neither team could play a lick of defense, which made for some explosive offense in a game that was tied at 31 by halftime, and 45 at the end of regulation. The teams continued to trade touchdowns in overtime until a two point conversion by the Wolverines proved to be the deciding factor. That score came after a tipped and bobbled pass on fourth down in the second overtime found Junior Hemingway for a touchdown. The game really was exhilirating to watch, unless you were an Illinois fan. Around the rest of the conference, Michigan State and Wisconsin both won easily to keep the title picture a little foggy, and Joe Paterno got his 400th career win after the Nittany Lions overcame a 21-0 defecit against Northwestern. It was the 2nd time Northwestern has lost a game after leading by at least 17 points, and they only have 3 losses all year. As far as the conference title race is concerned, there are still 4 teams with their BCS bowl hopes very much alive, but almost all of them need some other teams among the four to trip up at some point. They all have possible stumbling blocks ahead as OSU takes on PSU, Iowa and Michigan, Iowa still has Northwestern and OSU, MSU still faces Penn State, and Wisconsin still has to survive Michigan in the Big House and Northwestern in Wisconsin. Anything is still possible in this race.
Big Ten week 11 picks - Iowa over Northwestern, Wisconsin over Indiana, Illinois over Minnesota, Michigan over Purdue, Ohio State over Penn State
Week 11 outlook - Only a couple of tough games to predict this week here, as Wisconsin won't allow Indiana to hang around against them this week as the Hoosiers did against Iowa. Even without John Clay, the Badgers ground game with James White and Montee Ball should still dominate. Indiana's offense is far too one-dimensional to be a real threat to the Badgers this week, and Wisconsin will win by 2-3 scores. The Fighting Illini need to regroup on the defensive side of the ball and get over the psychological hangover from the loss in Ann Arbor, but they are a much better team than the Gophers. Look for Nate Scheelhaase and Mikel Leshoure to run all over Minnesota, and who knows, maybe Nate will find Leshoure on that same wheel route that has resulted in three wide open touchdowns the last two weeks. Illinois should look a little rough early on in this one, but should wind up way ahead at the final gun. Michigan gets an easier matchup this week as they travel to Purdue. Michigan's offense has been pretty much unstoppable against even some solid defenses, and Purdue will certainly be the next D they carve up. The question is how many stops the Wolverines will be able to make. Luckily for Michigan, Purdue is down to their third-string quarterback Sean Robinson, and the offense has really struggled the last couple of games with him in. Normally, the Michigan defense cures whatever ails a struggling offense, but I expect Michigan to make enough stops to make this their easiest win since the Bowling Green game in week 4. Iowa travels to Evanston this week to take on Northwestern, which is a team that has actually had great success against the Hawkeyes. The Wildcats have won four of the last five meetings, including stunning the then 4th ranked Hawkeyes last season. Iowa will be looking for a little revenge, and with Adam Robinson likely back, they will have the tools to get that vengeance. Robinson will help Iowa to control time of possession, and keep the ball away from Dan Persa, Jeremy Ebert and the rest of a very efficient Wildcat offense. Northwestern needs to play a full 60 minutes to hang with the Hawkeyes, and even if they hang around, I still think Iowa will win. I would be surprised if the final margin is greater than 10 points though. This week's big-time Big Ten showdown is between Ohio State and Penn State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. The odds are stacked against the Nittany Lions, as only two of JoePa's 400 career wins have come at the Horseshoe, and only one in the last 30 years. The Buckeyes are the more talented team right now, as Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Saine, and Daniel Herron will be able to frustrate PSU's run defense all day. Matt McGloin has been a huge upgrade over Rob Bolden for Penn State, as he makes good decisions and he makes them quickly, which Bolden did not. That upgrade won't matter against a great defense like Ohio State's. The Buckeyes will slow down the Nittany Lions just enough to win another one over Paterno in Columbus.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 continues to be the easiest league in the country to predict. The bad teams play bad, the good teams play good (okay they play well), and the conference race is pretty clear cut. Oregon pretty much has the conference title and automatic BCS berth in their pocket right now, needing to win two of their final three games to sew up the title. Cal looks like an easy win, and Arizona and Oregon State are both flawed enough to fall to the Ducks as well. Stanford looks to have a very strong shot to go to a BCS bowl as long as they don't lose another game, and Oregon State is the only team currently in the top half of the Pac-10 the Cardinal has yet to play. Everyone else appears to be playing for consolation bowl games. If Arizona can upset Oregon, things will get a little more interesting, but a lot more would have to happen to allow someone other than the Cardinal or Ducks into the BCS. Oregon still remains alive for the National Championship, and Stanford certainly boosted their at-large BCS profile by dismantling Arizona.
Pac-10 week 11 picks - Oregon State over Washington State, Stanford over Arizona State, Oregon over California, Arizona over USC
Week 11 outlook - Oregon State is an easy pick, as they will get Jaquizz Rodgers and the offense back on track and keep Wazzu winless against FBS foes. Cal has a slight glimmer of hope against Oregon in that they haven't lost a game at home, and even average winning there by a robust 39 points per game. A couple of issues with reading too much into that: Oregon is easily the best team the Golden Bears have welcomed to Berkeley this year, and Kevin Riley was under center for all four Cal wins. This Saturday, it will be Brock Mansion taking the snaps, and Oregon feasts on inexperienced qbs with that opportunistic defense. Cal should be a mess again this week and should fall by a wide margin. Something in the ballpark of 56-10 wouldn't surprise me. Stanford showed me last weekend that they are able to take care of any opponent left on their schedule after a very impressive win over the Wildcats. Arizona State is not nearly as tough a challenge, and although ASU's athletic linebackers should make it hard for Stanford to get the ground game going, Andrew Luck is still one of the best passers in the country. The Cardinal aren't one to run up the score, so I expect them to win by about two scores. USC at Arizona is the best Pac-10 matchup this week, and the story will be the quarterbacks. Foles has had a week to shake off the rust, and he should be ready for a USC secondary that has struggled at times this year. The offense for the Wildcats has to be better this week, and use Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby in the running game to keep the Trojans guessing. Matt Barkley has made real strides this season, and USC can score, but the one-dimensional nature of that Trojan offense should be enough of an edge for Arizona to get the home win in a good game.
SEC -
There wasn't a lot to learn in the SEC this week on the field, as most of the conference's teams played tune up games against lesser foes. There was plenty of drama off the field with the mounting Cam Newton scandal, and the fact that Les Miles was caught on camera eating grass at Tiger Stadium Saturday. Maybe that's where he gets his magic touch for pulling off one miracle win after another. This week wasn't quite as miraculous as the Tennessee or Florida games, but the gambler of Baton Rouge did make another amazingly gutsy call late in this one. On a fourth-and-1 play from inside the Bama 30-yard line, Miles called a reverse to the wide receiver that went for 23 yards to set up the winning touchdown. The game knocked Alabama out of the national title conversation and thrust LSU into it as the top ranked one-loss team. There is some sentiment out there that if Oregon and Auburn both lose, a once beaten SEC squad should still get a title bid over Boise and TCU. I disagree with that idea, but some people definitely believe it. In the other marquee SEC mtchup, Arkansas throttled South Carolina who has lost two of three since beating Alabama. The Gamecocks now fall into a tie with Florida for the east division lead, and the two meet on Saturday to decide who goes to the conference title game. The west still has a couple weeks before all is settled.
SEC week 11 picks - Kentucky over Vanderbilt, Auburn over Georgia, Arkansas over UTEP, LSU over UL-Monroe, Alabama over Mississippi St., Ole Miss over Tennessee, Florida over South Carolina
Week 11 outlook - Les Miles and LSU won't need any magic this week against UL-Monroe. Their quarterback duo played well against 'Bama, and could use some more valuable game experience to get ready for Arkansas. Arkansas, meanwhile, also gets a tune-up this week to get ready for that showdown with the Tigers. Ryan Mallett should have a field day against UTEP even without Greg Childs, and even Knile Davis should have another strong game. Ole Miss should be able to top the Vols, but this will be a tight game if Jeremiah Masoli doesn't play. Ole Miss has more weapons on offense, but they don't always put them to good use. I still like the Rebels in a squeaker. The wheels are starting to come off for Vanderbilt down the stretch, as Florida took them apart last week. Kentucky isn't Florida, but Mike Hartline and Randall Cobb can do some damage of their own. Expect Kentucky to win by about 20 points. Auburn gets a trap game against Georgia this week. Georgia has been a different team since getting AJ Green back from his suspension, and a win over Florida a couple of weeks ago could have put the Bulldogs back in the conference title race. Despite that loss, the Georgia offense has been outstanding over the past 5 games, and Auburn certainly has been prone to giving up some points. This game will come down to Cam Newton though. No SEC team has had an answer for Newton's running ability, and I don't expect Georgia to have that answer. I think Cam gallops for a buck fifty in this one, and the Tigers win a shootout. If the allegations are getting to Newton, I don't think it will show on the field. Alabama needs a big bounce-back win this week against Mississippi State. Dan Mullen's turnaround in Starkville has been quick and drastic. The Bulldogs have won 6 in a row, and have some quality wins in that bunch. They play stong defense, and really do a nice job running the ball with qb Chris Relf and tailback Vick Ballard. Alabama has their own powerhouse running game with Ingram and Richardson, but the difference for Alabama is the decision-making of Greg McElroy and the playmaking ability of Julio Jones. With the game in Tuscaloosa, I think the Bulldogs keep it close, but it will be almost impossible to steal a win from the Crimson Tide. The final SEC game of the week has a lot at stake. Florida and South Carolina play for a chance to compete in the SEC title game. The matchup is in Gainesville, and the Gamecocks have never won in the Swamp in 12 tries. They are hoping to buck that trend on the running of Marcus Lattimore and the recieving of Alshon Jeffery. Florida certainly has some weapons of their own to counter South Carolina, as they utilize a 3 quarterback system with John Brantley as the drop back passer, Trey Burton as the wildcat running quarterback, and now Jordan Reed as a run-pass dual threat. Reed actually started the year as a tight end, but played extremely well in the quarterback position against Vanderbilt. The entire Gator offense has come together of late, especially as Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps get healthy. Florida is peaking at the right time, and South Carolina is swooning late as always, and I think the Gators win this game by at least two scores, and keep the Gamecocks seeking that first win in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Best of the Rest -
Boise State and TCU both got games this past week that were supposed to be tests for them, and neither team really broke a sweat. Boise dismantled Hawaii 42-7 in Boise, leaving Nevada and Fresno State as the only challenges left on their schedule. TCU, meanwhile, really impressed in throttling Utah, who had been undefeated and ranked fifth in the BCS standings. The big win for the Horned Frogs put them in great position for the title game, should Auburn or Oregon slip up. TCU still has not allowed multiple scores in a game in since September. Another win for the Frogs this weekend over SDSU would seal up the Mountain West title. Central Florida cemented their status as the top team in C-USA with a narrow win over a Houston team that made some poor decisions late in the game. The Knights would have to lose two of their final three games to open the door for ECU to take the division, and their final two games are against Tulane and Memphis, who have combined for one league win. The Sun Belt still has no bowl eligible teams, but the top two teams in the standings take each other on this week as FIU squares off against Troy. The MAC races are far from decided at this point, but the West is much closer to wrapped up after Northern Illinois rolled up 65 points on the Toledo Rockets. Toledo could still win the division, but NIU would have to drop its final two games. The East race is much more exciting with three teams knotted at 5-1 in conference play. Temple plays Ohio next Tuesday in an elimination game of sorts, and a win by the Bobcats could seal the division. If Temple wins, their season finale against Miami OH would be a shot at an outright division championship for the Owls or Redhawks. Miami simply needs to avoid a slip up against hapless Akron on Wednesday to stay in the race. Also worth noting in non-AQ play, Navy dropped a healthy 76 points on East Carolina last weekend, showing they have fully recovered from choking against Duke.
Other week 11 picks - NIU over Toledo (already happened Tue.), Miami OH over Bowling Green (already happened Wed.), East Carolina over UAB, TCU over San Diego State, Central Florida over Southern Miss, Utah over Notre Dame, Boise State over Idaho, Houston over Tulsa, Florida International over Troy, Nevada over Fresno State, BYU over Colorado State, Army over Kent State, Navy over Central Michigan, Air Force over New Mexico, Buffalo over Ball State, Western Michigan over Eastern Michigan, Marshall over Memphis, Arkansas State over Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State over North Texas, Rice over Tulane, Louisiana Tech over New Mexico State, Florida Atlantic over UL-Lafayette, Utah State over San Jose State, Wyoming over UNLV, Temple over Ohio (Tues. 11/16), Miami OH over Akron (Wed. 11/17)
Week 11 outlook - Boise State should win easily, as Idaho gives up a ton of yards and the Broncos gain a ton. TCU has a tough matchup with SDSU this week, as the Aztecs feature a great young running back in Ronnie Hillman, but the Horned Frog defense is just too good. They are loaded on both sides of the ball, and at this point I would say that TCU is the best team in the country. I would have picked NIU and Miami OH both to win this week, but with the games already played it's tough to prove that. ECU should bounce back from getting shellacked by Navy with a conference win over UAB. Speaking of Navy, the Midshipmen should continue their offensive roll against mediocre Central Michigan. Army has a shot to get bowl eligible this week against Kent State, and I think they get the job done. At the other service academy, Air Force should have no issues with New Mexico State. A blowout should be the end result there. Notre Dame desperately needs to beat Utah if they want to get bowl eligible, but freshman Tommy Rees makes his first start for the Irish, and the pressure will get to him. Utah needs to avoid turnovers and falling into an early hole, because the Irish fans will keep the team going if they hang around in this one. Ultimately, I think Utah is too good with Matt Asiata and Jordan Wynn to get beat by the lowly Irish this week. Houston and Tulsa square off in a pivotal matchup in their division of Conference-USA, and I think Houston recovers from their failed upset bid against UCF and handles the Golden Hurricane. In the other C-USA division, the UCF Knights will pretty much lock up the division with a close win over the Southern Miss Eagles. I think FIU will take care of Troy to keep the Sun Belt without a bowl eligible team, and it would put the Panthers in first place. Nevada and Colin Kaepernick will use their pistol offense to perfection against Fresno State this week, and will win by about 2 scores. A couple of big MAC games take place in the middle of next week, and I've picked those as well. Miami of Ohio will win on Wednesday over a miserable Akron team with a big game from Zack Dysert at quarterback. On Tuesday night, I think Temple reminds everyone just how good they are right now with a win over the Ohio Bobcats to set up a division title game with Miami the following week.
Conference Power Rankings -
1. SEC - Still the strongest league. Florida and Georgia have been improving, while the west is still 5 deep in strong bowl teams, including 2 national title contenders.
2. Big Ten - The top 4 remain at one league loss, even though Iowa narrowly dodged an upset. There is just so much depth here with a likely 8 bowl eligible programs.
3. Pac-10 - There isn't a ton of depth here, but two elite programs in Oregon and Stanford put this league just a hair above the Big 12.
4. Big 12 - All of the upsets last weekend make the league look more mediocre. As bad as the ACC and Big East have been this year, being the fourth best power conference is a little embarrassing.
5. ACC - No one seems to want the lead in the atlantic division, and only Virginia Tech has been consistent in the coastal. Getting dangerously close to falling below the MWC.
6. Mountain West - Even with the Utes loss, TCU, Utah, and SDSU provide a very strong top 3 teams, and Air Force still has some credibility left.
7. WAC - It's still the Boise and Nevada show. Hawaii and Fresno had a rough weekend last week, but still provide better depth than C-USA.
8. Conference-USA - Central Florida has been fantastic so far, and while the league really isn't a lot better than the Big Least, UCF is closer to the top 25 than anyone in that so-called power conference.
9. Big East - If Pitt doesn't win out, an unranked team will be playing in a BCS bowl game for the first time in the system's history. I don't know what to expect from week to week in this league, so a Panther loss could happen.
10. MAC - There is some talent at the top, but after the 5 teams fighting for the division titles, there is nothing left here.
11. Sun Belt - People still don't care, but a win by Troy could get the Sun Belt a bowl eligible team before the Big East gets one.
My Top 25 -
1. TCU - 10-0 (prev. 2)
2. Oregon - 9-0 (1)
3. Boise State - 8-0 (3)
4. Auburn - 10-0 (4)
5. Wisconsin - 8-1 (8)
6. Ohio State - 8-1 (9)
7. Nebraska - 8-1 (7)
8. Stanford - 8-1 (10)
9. LSU - 8-1 (13)
10. Iowa - 7-2 (13)
11. Michigan St. - 9-1 (15)
12. Alabama - 7-2 (6)
13. Arkansas - 7-2 (17)
14. Oklahoma State - 8-1 (18)
15. Utah - 8-1 (5)
16. Virginia Tech - 7-2 (19)
17. Arizona - 7-2 (12)
18. Oklahoma - 7-2 (11)
19. Mississippi State - 7-2 (22)
20. Nevada - 8-1 (25)
21. Missouri - 7-2 (16)
22. Penn State - 6-3 (UNR)
23. Kansas State - 6-3 (UNR)
24. Florida - 6-3 (UNR)
25. South Carolina - 6-3 (20)
Dropped from the Rankings - Baylor (21), North Carolina State (23), Florida State (24)
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