ACC -
Weeks one and two in the Atlantic Coast Conference have been forgettable at best. The conference entered the season with 5 ranked teams: Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina, and Georgia Tech. After two weeks, only the Hurricanes remain ranked, and even they have suffered a loss. This really is the status quo from this league over the past few seasons. The last time the ACC had a legitimate title contender was when Miami lost to Ohio State in the title game in January of '03. The returns of power programs at Miami and Florida State were greatly exaggerated. Georgia Tech couldnt defeat a Kansas team that was held to 3 points by a mediocre FCS team. To top that off, all of the promise surrounding this year's Tar Heels in Chapel Hill was wiped away by academic scandal involving all of UNC's best defensive players. Virginia Tech meanwhile, couldn't hold on for their comeback win against Boise on Labor Day, being beaten in the final minute by the Broncos, and then went out and lost to a James Madison team that, while good enough to be in the FCS playoffs at year's end, should never beat the Hokies. Va. Tech suffered from a hangover from the big loss to Boise, and the result shows it. The rest of the ACC has actually played pretty well so far this season, but it is far too early to take any of the 2-0 records seriously at this point. The conference race should be a wide open, wild ride. Miami is certainly the current favorite in the Coastal division, but don't count out the Hokies just yet. Even Michgan won 8 in a row after losing to Appalachian State and Oregon to open the 2007 season. The Atlantic division really is anyone's guess at this point, but there is a lot of football to help sort that out.
ACC week 3 picks - Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, West Virginia over Maryland, Cincinnati over North Carolina St., Florida St. Over BYU, Alabama over Duke, Auburn over Clemson, and Stanford over Wake Forest.
Week 3 outlook - The ACC will have a hard time picking up more than 3 wins this week, and one of those is a conference game. NC State has a realistic chance of beating Cincy, but any other ACC win would be a huge upset.
Big East -
In all seriousness, why does the Big East still get an automatic bid to the BCS over the Mountain West? The Big East is clearly the worst power conference this year. Only West Virginia and Rutgers escaped the first two weeks undefeated, and WVU escaped by the skin of their teeth against Marshall. The league is absolutely struggling to stay relevant. Schiano has done a nice job keeping Rutgers solid, but Louisville is a shell of it's former self. West Virginia is not nearly as dominant as it was under RichRod. Cincinnati is slipping without Brian Kelly, Tony Pike, and Mardy Gilyard, as evidenced by a loss to Fresno St. UConn is supposed to be improved, but losing 30-10 to Michigan didn't show it, especially considering the clinic the Huskies put on on how not to catch the ball. Pittsburgh has serious offensive line woes that were evident against Utah, and now star defensive end Greg Romeus will miss several weeks with an injury. South Florida has yet to recover from the loss of Matt Grothe two years ago, and Syracuse is still the Duke of the Big East. This is hardly the profile of a power conference, but, as with the ACC, should make the race for the league title more fun. I would say that flawed West Virginia is the best bet to pull it out due to star running back Noel Devine, but there is a host of other teams who could put a stop to that.
Big East week 3 picks - WVU over Maryland, Cincy over NC State, UConn over Temple, Syracuse over Maine, and Oregon State over Louisville.
Week 3 outlook - A clean sweep this week is unlikely, but possible. Cincy will have a challenge with NC State, and Louisville will need a big effort to stop the Rodgers brothers and Upset the Beavers, but the rest of the Big East must win to keep some credibility as a power league.
Big 12 -
Through two weeks, the Big 12 continues to be one of the two or three best leagues in the country. Oklahoma has come out with a vengeance after struggling to put away Utah St, and rolled over Florida St. by 30 points. Landry Jones is looking like the next in a line of quality Oklahoma qbs, and the Sooners are currently the favorites in the South. Texas has a fantastic roster, but until Garrett Gilbert starts playing with a little more consistency, it will be difficult for the Longhorns to match OU. The rest of the division has been solid as well, but only Oklahoma has played a major opponent to date. It's hard to take much from blowout wins over FCS schools and low FBS schools. The only team that has really struggled is Oklahoma St., who survived a shootout against Troy. In the North, however, there is clearly a split between the teams that are good, and the teams that are bad. Nebraska may be the best team in the entire Big 12. Freshman Taylor Martinez at quarterback has the Husker offense looking like the offense of old under Eric Crouch and Tommy Frazier. Bo Pelini has the blackshirt defense back and with the new offense, Nebraska will be hard to beat. Missouri and Kansas State seem like solid programs, but both are certainly a step behind Nebraska. The rest of the division is not very good. Colorado was throttled by Cal, Kansas lost to an average FCS team by a score of 6-3, and Iowa St. was nearly blanked by their in-state rival Hawkeyes. All three have also played a good game, but each has also played a miserable game.
Big 12 week 3 picks - Kansas over Southern Miss, Kansas St. over Iowa St, Hawaii over Colorado, Oklahoma over Air Force, Nebraska over Washington, Texas over Texas Tech, TCU over Baylor, Oklahoma St. over Tulsa, Missouri over San Diego State, and Texas A&M over Florida International.
Week 3 outlook - A lot of games in week 3 could be toss-ups. Only Nebraska and Texas A&M strike me as sure winners this week. Oklahoma is pretty safe, but they have to be prepared for the option attack that has been very successful for Air Force the first two weeks. Texas will need a solid outing out of Gilbert to win in Lubbock against what is still a high scoring Red Raider offense. Baylor is a pretty big underdog, but could pull the upset over TCU if they play a great game. Kansas, Mizzou, Colorado, and Oklahoma St. are all capable of winning this week, but the games are played on the field, not in potential.
Big Ten -
No league has had more to beat it's chest about in the first two weeks of the season than the Big Ten. Ohio State rolled over a Marshall team that almost knocked off a ranked WVU team, then handled a ranked Miami team in week two. Wisconsin has played well enough in starting 2-0. Iowa dismantled the Cyclones from Ames. Michigan stormed out of the gates with Denard Robinson leading the way. Michigan State played under the radar despite dominating their games against Western Michigan and Florida Atlantic. Northwestern is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Illinois put up a fight against Missouri, and handled their second opponent. Penn St. will have struggles with their freshman quarterback, as evidenced by their loss to Alabama, but they will likely be bowling at season's end. The other 3 teams in the Big Ten are not very good, but this is still a deep and talented league that will play a role in deciding the national champion.
Big Ten week 3 picks - Michigan over UMass, Ohio St. over Ohio, Penn St. over Kent St., Illinois over Northern Illinois, Purdue over Ball St., USC over Minnesota, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Michigan St. over Notre Dame, Indiana over Western Kentucky, Northwestern over Rice, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - A lot of easy games for the Big Ten this week, and just a few that are tougher to pick. Minnesota would need an amazing effort to upend USC. Illinois and Northwestern should win, but neither can afford to take their next opponent lightly. Wisconsin needs to play strong defense against Arizona St., but should win that game. Michigan St. will not be overlooked for much longer if they can take down the Irish in East Lansing. Kirk Cousins is an effective quarterback, and the Spartans are just a solid, fundamentally sound squad. The game of the week in the Big Ten pits No. 9 Iowa against Pac-10 upstart Arizona. Mike Stoops has had Arizona improving every season, and a win over Iowa would be a huge statement. The Hawkeyes are definitely on upset alert this week.
Pac-10 -
The end of the USC dynasty has brought prosperity to the rest of the conference. The Oregon Ducks have easily the most explosive offense in the county over the season's first two weeks, and so far they look like national title contenders. Stanford, Arizona, and California are all serious threats from within the conference. USC is not on the same level as those teams after losing several key players to the NFL over the past two seasons. Oregon State and Washington should also be a factor in the race, but it should be a fun one to watch.
Pac-10 week 3 picks - California over Nevada, USC over Minnesota, Nebraska over Washington, Wisconsin over Arizona St., Oregon St. over Louisville, Oregon over Portland St., Houston over UCLA, SMU over Washington St., Stanford over Wake Forest, and Arizona over Iowa
Week 3 outlook - The Pac-10 has numerous chances to score upsets in week 3, with Arizona in the best position to succeed. Washington, UCLA, and Arizona St. could post great victories for the league if a few breaks go their way. Washington will likely need more than a few, but anything's possible when your opponent starts a freshman qb on the road. Washington St. is awful as usual, but a win over SMU isn't unthinkable.
SEC -
Alabama still runs the SEC. Greg McElroy hasn't lost a game as a starter since before high school. Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram are a dangerous duo in the backfield, and Julio Jones is an elite wide receiver. The defense suffered major losses from last season, but still looked pretty sharp in holding Penn St. to 3 points last Saturday. The rest of the west is solid, but not on the same level as Bama. Auburn has been solid under Florida transfer Cameron Newton, while LSU and Arkansas have looked shaky in starting 2-0. Ole Miss and Miss. St. still need to get better. Florida in the East could be scary good if they can stop fumbling snaps and get more consistency out of John Brantley. South Carolina looks like the best contender to the throne, as Steve Spurrier may have his best team yet in Columbia. Marcus Lattimore has been fantastic so far running the ball for the Gamecocks. Georgia has a solid roster, but desperately need star wideout AJ Green back, as the passing game often struggled in losing 17-6 to South Carolina. Tennessee is far from back to prominence, as another bad loss to the Gators this week will demonstrate. Kentucky should start 3-0, but it will be an uphill battle to wind up in the upper half of the division. Vandy is just ba.
SEC week 3 picks - Florida over Tennessee, Alabama over Duke, Ole Miss over Vandy, Kentucky over Akron, South Carolina over Furman, Auburn over Clemson, LSU over Miss. St., and Georgia over Arkansas.
Week 3 outlook - The first five picks all seem like sure things to me. Auburn will have a good game with Clemson, but Cameron Newton and the home crowd will be enough to pick up the win. LSU can't overlook Miss. St., as Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs playing solid football. The Bayou Bengals should still win. I believe Georgia will pull the upset over Arkansas. Washaun Ealey will be playig with a chip on his shoulder after a critical fumble ended UGa's comeback effort against the Gamecocks. I believe that even without Green, the Bulldogs will find a way to win.
The Best of the Rest -
Boise State's national title hopes took a huge hit when the Hokies went down to James Madison last week. Last year's opening win over Oregon only became more valuable as the Ducks won the Pac-10, and that still didn't get the unbeaten Broncos close to the title game. This year's early loss by VaTech means the Broncos will need a lot of help to play for all the marbles. TCU has an easier path to the title game, as they get an extra high-profile game within their conference schedule. Utah will be a tough game for TCU, but a win over the Utes could be the boost they need to get to the title game. Boise, on the other hand, only has Nevada and Fresno St. as challenges within the WAC, and neither of those games will give the Broncos much of a boost in the polls. Both teams deserve consideration, but it's always an uphill battle to get to the title game from a non automatic qualifier conferece. The early season MAC favorite in a down year for the conference is Western Michigan. Houston, meanwhile, is the clear favorite in Conference USA.
Other week 3 picks - Marshall over Bowling Green, Troy over UAB, Colorado St. over Miami Oh., Boise St. over Wyoming, Utah over New Mexico, Fresno St. over Utah St., Navy over Louisiana Tech, Western Michigan over Toledo, Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan, and UCF over Buffalo.
MY National Top 25
- Alabama
- Ohio St.
- Oregon
- TCU
- Oklahoma
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Boise St.
- Texas
- Florida
- Stanford
- Auburn
- Arizona
- Wisconsin
- South Carolina
- California
- Michigan
- Utah
- LSU
- Miami (FL)
- Texas A&M
- Arkansas
- West Virginia
- Michigan State
- Texas Tech
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