Another week is in the books in what is shaping up to be a fantastic college football season. The Michigan State Spartans announced to the world that they were willing to take risks, and it paid off with a controversial overtime victory over a disappointed 1-2 Notre Dame team. Unfortunately, the drama was too much for head coach Mark Dantonio, who was hospitalized with a heart attack shortly after the deciding play. Michigan and early-season Heisman media-darling Denard Robinson survived yet another FCS threat, by defeating UMass 42-37. The FCS refuses to lay down for the big time FBS programs, and it is throwing off the balance of power amongst the top teams. Oregon put on another offensive show, with LaMichael James racking up over 200 yards on the ground. Clemson and Auburn squared off in a slugfest that went to the SEC tigers in OT, and Arizona got off to fast start against the no. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes, and held off a late rally to get the win. The national landscape is starting to take shape, and here are the things that we learned from week 3:
ACC -
The ACC is still up for grabs at this point in the season. The preseason favorites all faltered early, but many have rebounded. North Carolina has opened the season 0-2, but finally have some answers about when at least a couple of their suspended players can return. Hopefully as the punishments become final, the Tar Heels will be able to focus and play good football. Butch Davis's team has a lot of talent, but has already lost a conference game, and has to do some damage to stay relevant. Virginia Tech is back to winning football games with a sloppy, but decisive victory over East Carolina in week 3. Another win over Boston College this week would put them back in control of their season. Georgia Tech defeated a depleted UNC team to get a jump start at 1-0 within the coastal division. The coastal division race will be intense, with 3 teams looking like legitimate contenders to win the division in Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech, while North Carolina fights to keep hope alive. The Atlantic division is equally wide open. Clemson took a hit in losing to Auburn, but it's not a conference game. Wake Forest made it clear that they will not be a contender by losing to Stanford 68-24. It demonstrated that their shootout with Duke was more a product of bad defense than good offense. The Atlantic will be a four team race, and could even be 5 if Maryland can rebound from their loss to West Virginia. Florida St. is still considered the frontrunner, but Clemson, NC State, and Boston College have all played well in the non-conference schedule. Boston College could make a huge statement with a win over Virginia Tech in week 4.
ACC Week 4 picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech over NC State, Virginia Tech over Boston College, Maryland over Florida International, Virginia over VMI, Florida St. over Wake Forest, Duke over Army, North Carolina over Rutgers
Week 4 outlook - Pittsburgh is no Ohio St., and Miami will be playing angry ofter losing their marquee game of the season to the Buckeyes, and then having two weeks to prepare for the Panthers. Tino Sunseri is not going to run like Terelle Pryor, and Dion Lewis is only as effective as the line in front of him, which has not been very good. He averages less than 3 yards a carry and 55 yards a game through the first two games. Jacory Harris and the Canes win by 2 scores. NC State has been solid, but that triple option attack of the Yellow Jackets is hard to slow down. The Jackets protect their homefield and beat the Wolfpack. Va. Tech is in a must win situation against a Boston College team that hasn't really played anyone yet. The Hokies will play well, and Tyrod Taylor will have a great game and carry the Hokies to another victory. Maryland should beat FIU, but the Panthers gave Texas A&M fits a week ago before allowing the Aggies to overcome a 14-point fourth quarter deficit. Maryland is not as good as the Aggies. Look for a closer game than expected. Virginia had better beat VMI, and I would be surprised if the porous Wake Forest defense gave up less than 50 to the Seminoles. Duke should have their hands full with Army, but they have to win the winnable games on their schedule. I believe the 0-2 Tar Heels pull of a minor upset over Rutgers. Schiano is a great coach who will no doubt have his Scarlet Knights ready to play, but Carolina has lost close to two very good teams despite all of the ineligible players. I think they get over the hump this week and take down Rutgers behind another strong passing day from T.J. Yates.
Big East -
The Big East proved yet again that they don't belong in the BCS games, as upstart UConn got beat by the Temple Owls. Defending conference champion Cincinnati looked terrible in their loss to NC State, and Louisville failed to knock off Oregon State at home in a great upset opportunity. Syracuse defeated Maine, but who cares, and West Virginia continued to be the only Big East school worth talking about for now, picking up a 2 touchdown win over the Terps of Maryland. Rutgers is still unbeaten, but also untested.
Big East week picks - Miami over Pittsburgh, UConn over Buffalo, Syracuse over Colgate, North Carolina over Rutgers, Oklahoma over Cincinnati, South Florida over Western Kentucky, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The Big East has several chances this week to regain some credibility with marquee games for several teams. The problem is that they have to win those games to make a statement. Miami should easily beat Pitt, Rutgers will have a hard time holding off a proud 0-2 North Carolina team that can't afford to be 0-3, Cincy will be overmatched in every way against Oklahoma, and West Virginia will need to be creative with Noel Devine to fool a very good LSU defense. I smell an 0 for 4 week in the big games. Syracuse follows up Maine on the schedule with Colgate, clearly an effort to pad early season win totals. UConn and South Florida also must win to keep from embarrassing the league.
Big 12 -
Last week started to separate the boys from the men in the Big 12. Oklahoma survived another scare from a lower conference foe, but Landry Jones and DeMarco Murray have been very good so far, and the Big 12 is really devoid of spread option running attacks like Air Force threw at them. Texas continued to rely on a strong defense to compensate for the up and down play of Garret Gilbert. The win over Texas Tech gives them a leg up in the division however. Tech and Baylor recieved rude wake up calls. Baylor was destroyed by national title hopeful TCU, and Texas Tech was held to just 14 points after putting up 35 and 52 in their first 2 games. Texas A&M was nearly embarrassed at the hands of Florida International, but rallied for 21 fourth quarter points in a 7 point win. Oklahoma State finally blew someone away as Kendall Hunter was superb again in a thrashing of Tulsa. Texas and Oklahoma have clearly separated themselves as the best overall teams in the south, and the red river shootout will likely again decide the division winner. In the North division, Nebraska has clearly established itself as the best team. Missouri and Kansas State are the best challengers to Nebraska, but both have flaws. Kansas State has won on guts and great running by Daniel Thomas. Defense and passing have not been strengths. Missouri has had to scrape to get by Illinois and San Diego State, both teams that would likely get rolled by Big Red. Taylor Martinez was fantastic last Saturday on the road at Washington, showing that the freshman quarterback has the tools to win in big games right now.
Big 12 Week 4 picks - Kansas State over Central Florida, Missouri over Miami OH, Texas over UCLA, Nebraska over South Dakota St., Oklahoma over Cincinnati, Iowa St. over Northern Iowa, Kansas over New Mexico St., Baylor over Rice
Week 4 outlook - Only a couple games really are worth mentioning this week with a few snoozers on the slate. Daniel Thomas should be plenty to get the Wildcats past the UCF Knights. Mizzou, Nebraska, and Iowa St. should win easily. Kansas is never a sure thing, but New Mexico St. will have a very hard time going into Lawrence and beating the Jayhawks. Oklahoma should easily dispatch of Cincy. Baylor at Rice should be an interesting game this week. The Bears were embarrassed against TCU last week, and quarterback Robert Griffin has made it clear that Baylor isn't laying down after that loss. Rice, however, has a very good running back in Michigan transfer Sam McGuffie, who can hurt you running the ball or catching it out of the backfield. Baylor will have to bottle up McGuffie to beat the 1-2 Owls. The most interesting game of the week is between Texas and UCLA. The Longhorns are the clear favorites, but don't be so quick to predict a rout for the boys from Austin. The Longhorns will have to run the ball often and focus on stopping UCLA's running game led by dynamic back Jonathan Franklin. Kevin Prince and the UCLA passing attack has been terrible, but most efforts to throw against UCLA have been futile. If Texas insists on letting Garret Gilbert throw to move the ball in this game, the Bruins will hang around. This could be dangerously close to a huge upset, but I think Mack Brown is too smart to let that happen. Texas will win in a closer game than expected.
Big Ten -
The Big Ten continues to gain steam in many ways. Six Big Ten teams remain undefeated. The league has suffered only 6 losses as a whole, and only one of those was to a non-BCS school. The other five teams to win over the Big Ten are Notre Dame, Arizona, Alabama, USC, and Missouri. Those are hardly pushover opponents. The league has scored victories over Notre Dame twice, Miami FL, UConn, Iowa St., Vanderbilt, Arizona St., Rice, Western Michigan, and UNLV. Ohio State is a true national title contender, while Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Northwestern are all unbeaten with hopes of strong bowl berths. Iowa and Penn State also belong in the discussion at 0-0 in conference play. The league looks as strong as it's been in years, but things won't really separate until they start playing each other.
Big Ten Week 4 picks - Northwestern over Central Michigan, Michigan State over Northern Colorado, Michigan over Bowling Green, Wisconsin over Austin Peay, Purdue over Toledo, Iowa over Ball State, Ohio St. over Eastern Michigan, Indiana over Akron, Northern Illinois over Minnesota, Penn St. over Temple
Week 4 outlook - Most of the top teams in the league have easy games this week. Northwestern may have issues with the Chippewas, but should prevail. Michigan will likely be better prepared this week after a near disaster against UMass. MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, and Iowa will all win easily, and Indiana should have little trouble with Akron if Ben Chappell continues his strong play at qb. Purdue should beat Toledo, but nothing is certain yet with the Boilers. Northern Illinois is always solid with head coach Jerry Kill in charge, and Minnesota's poor early play leads me to believe the Huskies will find their way to the upset. Minnesota can run the ball, and Adam Weber has enough experience to be a strong leader, but rarely have those things shown on the field thus far. Penn State may be in for a brawl with in-state rival Temple. Temple doesn't often put up much of a fight, but this isn't your garden variety Owls team. Bernard Pierce is running with authority, and the defense is playing with a fire in the 3-0 start Temple is off to. The Nittany Lions would be wise to lean on Evan Royster in this game rather than trust freshman Robert Bolden to take care of business against the scrappy Owls. If they do that, a 2-3 touchdown win is possible. If not, Temple might put a scare into some PSU fans.
Pac-10 -
The Pac-10 went into week three with a real chance to steal some upsets and make some major headlines, and they did just that. Arizona upended the Iowa Hawkeyes. UCLA got their first victory of the year by stomping the ranked Houston Cougars and knocking out thier first and second-string qbs in the process. Oregon State also picked up an impressive victory over Louisville. Unfortunately, the Pac-10 took some losses as well. WSU managed to lose to SMU. Washington got steamrolled in an upset bid at home against Nebraska and Taylor Martinez. Arizona St. lost a heartbreaker against Wisconsin when they had an extra point blocked in the second half of the one-point defeat. Making the loss tougher to swallow, on the final play of the first half, the Sun Devils broke a long kick return that was stopped one yard shy of a touchdown. Cal also hurt the credibility of the Pac-10 with a bad loss to the Nevada Wolf Pack. Stanford and Oregon continued to be the lead horses in the league with statement victories in easy games, and USC beat a sorry Minnesota team in Minneapolis. This season in the Pac-10 should get fun as conference games begin.
Pac-10 Week 4 picks - USC over Washington State, Boise State over Oregon State, Oregon over Arizona State, Arizona over California, Texas over UCLA, Notre Dame over Stanford
Week 4 outlook - This could be a rough week in the Pac-10 with some difficult games on tap outside of league play. USC should win easily to go to 4-0. Oregon is just too fast for Arizona St. to keep up with, and the contrast in style from Wisconsin to Oregon in back-to-back games will be too much for the Sun Devils to handle. Oregon State will be in a great tussle with Boise State. Ryan Katz has shown that he has a big arm, and the Rodgers brothers are a dynamic that no other offense can boast, but it will be up to the Beaver defense to keep Kellen Moore from doing the things he does. He is smart with the ball and knows how to win. I feel like the Broncos will be more than ready for this game, as it appears to be the biggest hurdle between them and a BCS bowl game. Texas will recieve a stiff challenge from UCLA, but will survive. Arizona will not win easily against the Cal Golden Bears. They should be victorious, but they lack the running qb that gave Cal fits last week against Nevada. Nick Foles is no Colin Kaepernick, but Foles hadn't thrown consecutive incompletions this season until almost halfway through the third game of the year. Foles accurate arm will guide Arizona to another tough victory. Stanford and Notre Dame will be a much better game than most expect. The crowd in South Bend will be itching for an Irish win, and I think the team will give it to them. Andrew Luck and The Cardinal have been sensational thus far, but Notre Dame is a more balanced offensive football team than Stanford has seen so far. The combination of Dayne Crist's passing and Armando Allen's rushing will be tough to stop, and tight end Kyle Rudolph is a matchup nightmare. Notre Dame will do a good job in coverage and contain Andrew Luck's aerial numbers, and will pull off a narrow upset at home.
SEC -
The SEC continues to be simply the strongest league in the country. Only a couple Southeastern Conference teams have little to no shot at being ranked at some point this season. Alabama continues to look like a champion again. Auburn continues to win close games. LSU continues to play stellar defense to keep pressure off of Jordan Jefferson to win games. Florida continues to win easily despite lackluster execution on offense. Ryan Mallett continues to keep opposing secondaries guessing, and the Razorbacks managed to win a road game. The South Carolina victory tour rolled through Furman with a 19-point win and Marcus Lattimore continued to punish opposing tacklers with his physical running. Even Kentucky has continued to impress under new coach Joker Phillips, and they're off to a 3-0 start. Lowly Vanderbilt also scored a victory over the struggling Ole Miss Rebels. All told, the SEC has only lost 3 non-league games, and two of those were to undefeated Northwestern and undefeated Oregon. Only Ole Miss's loss to Jacksonville State to open the season stands out as an unexpected or bad loss by an SEC team. The meat of the SEC schedule is approaching fast, and things are about to get fun in this conference.
SEC Week 4 picks - Tennessee over UAB, Alabama over Arkansas, Florida over Kentucky, Georgia over Mississippi St., Fresno St. over Ole Miss, South Carolina over Auburn, LSU over West Virginia
Week 4 outlook - The SEC is where all of the action is this weekend. Almost every game this week is a big one and should be fun to watch. Tennessee should get back on track against UAB. Derek Dooley is a good coach and will have the Vols fired up for the must-win game, and the Blazers are not Florida or Oregon. Masoli and Ole Miss will continue to look lost against a pretty good Fresno St. team from the WAC, and will suffer another loss. LSU should be able to knock off the WVU Mountaineers as long as they focus on shutting down Noel Devine and make someone else beat them. Jordan Jefferson needs to avoid turnovers, but LSU should be able to win this game. Florida needs to clean up their offensive play, because it will eventually catch up with them if they don't. Kentucky will be itching for a big win over the Gators. They haven't defeated Florida or Tennessee in years, and after their 3-0 start the Wildcats will be playing with confidence going forward. If Florida isn't crisp on offense, this one could be a squeaker. Watch out for Kentucky this season. South Carolina has played exceptional football thus far, and will have to do a good job containing the run-pass dual threat of Cameron Newton to continue that great play. I like the Gamecocks this week, but Auburn has been scrappy. I sense a slugfest here, and Auburn just might not be up to the task after the physical game with Clemson last week. I like Lattimore to be just a little more physical than the Tiger defense, and the Gamecocks to win by a touchdown. No. 1 Alabama takes on no. 10 Arkansas in the game of the week this Saturday. Mallett would love to come in and throw for 300 yards and keep the inexperienced Tide secondary guessing, but it just won't happen. Alabama is extremely skilled, and extremely well coached, and that inexperienced defense will be ready for what Arkansas will try to do to them. I expect the Tide to hold Mallett to under 200 yards passing and barely over 50% of his passes completed. The running game of Alabama will be too much to stand up to for the Hogs defense, and McElroy simply does not turn the ball over. Alabama isn't out talking about being "Goliath" like Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino is. They're simply quietly getting ready to systematically take the Razorbacks apart. I would be surprised if Alabama does not win by at least 10 points. The real game to watch this week in the SEC is between Georgia and Mississippi State. I realize that both teams are 1-2 overall and 0-2 in the SEC, but the result of that is desperation. Georgia had a real chance to upset Arkansas a week ago, and the Bulldogs had a chance to take out Auburn 2 weeks ago. Both of these teams need this win, and both will play like it. Expect a lot of hard hits, smashmouth football, and a lot of emotion on both sides. Georgia needs to win this game to feel like they have an outside shot at the SEC crown with star wide receiver AJ Green returning next week. Mississippi St. needs this win to avoid an 0-3 conference start in head coach Dan Mullen's first year in charge of the program. The desperation will be palpable, and this game will come down to the final plays, and I see the Bulldogs of UGa coming out on top in an instant classic.
Best of the Rest -
Boise and TCU continue to do what you expect them to and beat up on lesser competition. Boise destroyed Wyoming on the road in Laramie, and still hasn't played at home on the smurf turf yet. TCU dismantled what is supposed to be a dangerous Big 12 team in Baylor with a healthy Robert Griffin. A five touchdown win in that game should demonstrate just how good TCU can be. The most exciting thing to take from last week's games for these two teams is the play of their past and future opponents, not their own victories. For Boise, Virginia Tech topped a 2-0 ECU team, Oregon State beat Louisville, and in the biggest game, Nevada wiped the floor with California. The strong play of Nevada and Fresno State have given Boise two more credible opponents on the schedule. That could be enough to help them in the computers and cause them to need a little less help to get to the title game. TCU also has seen some strong play from its Mountain West bretheren. Utah continues to be a very good football team, and despite losing, Air Force was very impressive in pushing Oklahoma to the limit in Norman. San Diego State also impressed in a close loss to Missouri. Apart from the Mountain West and WAC, the biggest story in smaller conferences was the devastation by injury of the Houston Cougars' season. Both Case Keenum (torn ACL), and his back-up (broken collarbone) were knocked out for the season in a bad loss to UCLA last Saturday night. As a result, Conference USA is wide open for the taking if anyone can step up and take it. Southern Miss and East Carolina are always respectable teams, and seem to be the next in line to contend for the crown. The big story in the MAC however is the impressive start for Al Golden's Temple Owls. Coach Golden has put together a remarkable turnaround in Philadelphia, as the Owls are now 12-1 in their last 13 regular season games, when just a few short years ago they were being blown out by mediocre MAC schools. They've done it the right way, with a bruising defense and power running game. Bernard Pierce may be the best runner in the MAC. Penn St. will be a brutal test for the Owls, but don't expect them to play scared.
Other week 4 picks - Boise St. over Oregon St., TCU over SMU, Air Force over Wyoming, Penn St. over Temple, Troy over Arkansas St., Nevada over BYU, Marshall over Ohio, Florida Atlantic over North Texas, Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech, San Diego St. over Utah St., Utah over San Jose St., UTEP over Memphis, UNLV over New Mexico, Hawaii over Colorado State
Week 4 outlook - Kellen Moore will carry Boise State to victory over a tough Oregon State team. Pessuring Ryan Katz without the run defense against Jaquizz Rodgers suffereing for it will be key for a Bronco victory, and I think the defense is up for the challenge. If Boise wins here, very little stands between the Broncos and yet another BCS berth, possibly even in the title game with a little help. TCU has a fairly easy game this week and should roll SMU by at least 3 touchdowns, despite June Jones' pass-heavy offense. Nevada should beat a surprisingly weak BYU team that will have as much trouble stopping Kaepernick as it did stopping Air Force's option-read offense. Utah and Hawaii should win easily as well. San Diego State and Utah State should be an entertaining game, but I see the Aztecs coming out on top.
Conference Power rankings
1. SEC - easily the best
2. Pac-10 - Very good top half of the league beats out a down Big 12 and decent Big Ten
3. Big Ten - Not behind the Pac-10 by that much
4. Big 12 - Little to talk about beyond Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma
5. ACC - Not one team that could wind up in the national championship game play here
6. MWC - TCU and Utah stand out as BCS contenders, and Air Force looks strong as well
7. WAC - Boise is the class of the league, but Nevada and Fresno are solid as well
8. Big East - Only West Virginia looks like they would definitely crack the top 3 in WAC or MWC
9. Conference USA - Houston's qb situation drops C-USA down a couple notches
10. MAC - Even in a down year it's not the Sun Belt
11. Sun Belt - No explanation needed
MY TOP 25 -
1. Alabama ( prev. no.1)
2. Ohio St. (2)
3. Oregon (3)
4. TCU (4)
5. Nebraska (7)
6. Boise State (8)
7. Oklahoma (5)
8. Florida (10)
9. Stanford (11)
10. Texas (9)
11. Arizona (13)
12. Auburn (12)
13. South Carolina (15)
14. LSU (19)
15. Wisconsin (14)
16. Iowa (6)
17. Utah (18)
18. Arkansas (22)
19. Michigan (17)
20. West Virginia (23)
21. Michigan State (24)
22. Miami (20)
23. Nevada (UNR)
24. Texas A&M (21)
25. Northwestern (UNR)
Dropped from rankings - California (16), Texas Tech (25)
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