Who wants to be number 1?

After watching one top 10 college hoops team after another get toppled by a lesser foe, you have to step back and say to yourself, "Who wants to be number 1?" Very few teams seem to want to have that target on their back. Only Duke and the Mountain West duo of San Diego State and BYU stayed unbeaten for the week from the top 10 in the AP poll. Everyone else came up with a loss. Duke seems primed to take over the number one spot in the new polls, but the turmoil seems to reinforce the idea that there are no great teams this season, only good ones. The tournament could be as unpredictable as ever, with more than a handful of teams believing they can catch lightning in a bottle and cut down the nets at season's end. Here's a look at some of the teams that should believe and why, as well as the best gameplan to take them down.



1. DUKE

Why they should believe: This is pretty simple, Singler and Smith. Very few teams have a pair of players who can do the things that Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith are capable of. Singler is a fantastic shooter who can rebound and defend as well, and is pretty tough to stop off the dribble too. Smith has filled a huge void with superstar freshman point guard Kyrie Irving hurt, as he has slid over to the point guard spot seamlessly and helped lead Duke to a ridiculous 25-2 record so far. Smith was always a great athlete and very effective scorer, but he has really stepped up as a facilitator as well. Those two players along with Coach K's leadership on the bench can take the Dukies a long way, possibly to repeating as champs.

How they can be beaten: This is simple to gameplan, but far tougher to execute. Duke spaces the floor extremely well on offense to create driving lanes for their two stars, so you have to keep them in front of you. Don't allow the dribble-drive. On offense, you have to go inside and attack the Plumlees. They lack the veteran experience in the post that Brian Zoubek provided and can really be hurt inside by solid post players. Having a star in the paint like Jared Sullinger or Rick Jackson can go a long way toward toppling the Dukies. If you can contain Singler and Smith on the offensive end, and control the paint, Duke can definitely be beaten.



OHIO STATE

Why they should believe: It's more than just Jared Sullinger. Sully is just the start of what the Buckeyes try to do on offense. He is a very capable scorer in the post, but he is just as adept at kicking the ball back to the perimeter to open teammates when the double team comes to him. Jon Diebler and William Buford are capable of exploding for big games if they get open looks thanks to the attention paid to Sullinger. Throw in that they can all defend and are very active on that end, especially freshman Aaron Craft, and Ohio State makes for a very difficult matchup for anyone.

How they can be beaten: Beating the Buckeyes starts on the defensive end. I don't know that you can slow them down with a zone defense. This is not a team that constantly looks to drive the basketball. They will happily shoot over a zone defense. You have to play man-to-man, and you have to stay on the shooters on the perimeter. While double-teaming Sullinger is a must when he has the ball on the block, you have to wait til he is attempting to shoot to collapse the second defender to him. If you double him too soon, he will find an open teammate. Sure Sullinger is likely to drop at least 20 points on you if you bring a late double team, but thats better than holding him to under 10 while the other guys light you up from 3. On offense, you simply have to be efficient. Playing uptempo is a tempting idea against a team that only plays 7 guys regularly, in an effort to wear them out. That would be a mistake. The Buckeyes capitalize on overly agressive offenses, forcing turnovers and scoring transition buckets off of them. OSU is a great transition team, and it's harder to stay on the perimeter shooters defending the fastbreak. Slow things down and execute. It's the best chance you'll get.



TEXAS

Why they should believe: Until the recent road slip up against Nebraska, it was hard to find a reason not to believe. The Longhorns are the best defensive team in the country, and have been getting better as the year has gone on. It may be a young team, but they haven't seemed like it as they won their first 11 conference games all by at least 9 points, and most by much more than that. They have an instant offense machine in Jordan Hamilton, a sweet shooter in Cory Joseph, and two solid post players in Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson. Throw in explosive 6th man J'Covan Brown and there is a lot to be excited about. This team is as talented as any in the country. Plenty of reason for optimism in Austin, even with the loss to the Huskers.

How they can be beaten: Texas is young and athletic, but it's hard to tell if they have any toughness, especially down low. Defensively, pack the paint with bodies and make them shoot from the perimeter all day. Don't allow Thompson and Johnson to roll up decent point totals, and make the outside shooters hit shots. On offense, pretty much the same thing. Go inside on them. Point guard Dogus Balbay and the other guards are great perimeter defenders, but they have little depth inside beyond Thompson and Johnson. Go into the paint to score your points, and if you're lucky, get those two bigs in foul trouble. The Huskers found this formula and beat up Texas inside, outscoring them 38-14 in the paint in their upset win. It also helps to not let the Longhorns going in transition.



PITTSBURGH

Why they should believe: Pitt is the best team in the best conference in all of college basketball. They have a lot of veteran leadership and a lot of depth to go along with great toughness and the most rebounds a game in the country. They have talent inside with Gary McGhee, Nasir Robinson and Dante Taylor as well as outside with Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown and Travon Woodall. There are very few parts of the game that this team struggles at, and if Dwight Hardy of St. John's hadn't made a miraculous tiptoe play down the baseline (he definitely stepped out of bounds), Pitt would be taking the number one ranking this week.

How they can be beaten: There aren't a lot of weaknesses to exploit for Pittsburgh. St. John's beat them with athleticism, Notre Dame beat them with brains, but more than anything, to beat Pitt takes great effort at both ends and precise execution. Pitt is an efficient team, and to beat them you have to be more efficient. Make the Panthers go inside with the ball by staying tight on the guards, and don't be afraid to foul the big guys rather than give them inside buckets. McGhee, Taylor, Robinson and power forward Talib Zanna combine to shoot 50.8% from the charity stripe. If you keep the ball in those guys' hands and out of the playmaking hands of Gibbs, Wanamaker and Brown, and you give yourself a great chance to win. Just slow down on offense, execute your plays, and hit shots. Simple, right?



KANSAS

Why they should believe: The Jayhawks have as dominant an inside tandem as you will find in college hoops in twin brothers Marcus and Markieff Morris. The team is loaded with veteran leadership as the Morrises are juniors as is guard Tyshawn Taylor, and Tyrel Reed and 6th man Brady Morningstar are seniors. Sophomore Thomas Robinson has provided a nice spark off the bench (although he is hurt now), as well as giving the team motivation after suffering two deaths in his family in just a couple of weeks. Pretty inspiring to see a guy who has gone through such an ordeal back on the court so quickly. Throw in inconsistent but extremely gifted freshman Josh Selby, and this team has the makings of one that can make a deep run in the dance. They've only lost twice so far, and one was to fellow powerhouse Texas.

How they can be beaten: With the Jayhawks, it's even tougher to pick out weaknesses than it is with Pittsburgh. Their only two losses all season came in a game in which Jacob Pullen put on one of the best performances we've seen all year, and a game in which Kansas had their worst single-game field goal percentage in the last 15 years against Texas. It's tough to beat the Morrises inside, but you kind of have to try. If you can get those two in foul trouble, the Jayhawks are in trouble. It helps if your guards are shooting well from the outside, but if Marcus and Markeiff are out there, it's tough to slow down KU. The other weak link in the Jayhawks armor might just be Josh Selby. Selby is very talented, but he really lacks consistency, and if you can get in his head early, it can really throw off Kansas's offensive rhythm. Taylor is a solid defender, but he does not have the offensive game Selby does. Kansas has had issues losing early in the tournament as a high seed in the past (see last season vs. Northern Iowa), and a lack of focus could be their undoing just as easily as a tough opponent.



GEORGETOWN

Why they should believe: The DC 3 of Jason Clark, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright are a devastating backcourt trio that can make life hell on the opposition. They've ridden those 3 guys to big wins all season long including a recent 8-game winning streak in the rough-and-tumble Big East that featured wins over St John's, Louisville, Villanova and Syracuse. If you can beat those kind of teams consistently, you can hang with anyone. The guards all have a lot of experience, and have a sour taste in their mouths after losing to Ohio in the first round last season. Look for an angry Hoyas squad that could do serious damage in the tournament.

How they can be beaten: Don't let those three guys beat you. Georgetown really lacks much of a low post game. Julian Vaughn is decent, but it takes more than one guy to be strong inside. Keep Freeman and Wright from driving to the hoop effectively, and don't give any of the 3 open outside looks, and go into the paint on offense. Make guys like Julian Vaughn, Hollis Thompson and Nate Lubick play very well to beat you. This is easier said than done since you would assume that every team they play would try to do this, yet the Hoyas keep winning.



PURDUE

Why they should believe: This team has the best inside-outside duo in the nation in E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson. Leuer and Taylor at Wisconsin may disagree with that, but they would be wrong. Moore was absolutely exceptional in a strong victory over Ohio State just days after taking down Wisconsin at home. Johnson has been viewed as a contender for national player of the year for most of the season, and nothing has changed since. This team wasn't expected to do great things after Robbie Hummel went down for the season in October, but Johnson and Moore have refused to believe they can't be a great team. The rest of the team has really done a nice job of being role players and doing the things that need to be done to win games. Lewis Jackson has stepped up at point guard, Ryne Smith has given them another outside shooter with Moore, and Kelsey Barlow, D.J. Byrd and Terone Johnson have also helped out playing good hustle basketball and playing solid defense.

How they can be beaten: The key on offense against Purdue, just like against most of the top teams, is to be efficient. Purdue plays a very intense style on defense. They keep tight pressure on the ballhandler, and you can't afford to turn the ball over a lot and let E'Twaun Moore and Lewis Jackson get running in transition. On defense, you have to take away E'Twaun Moore. JaJuan Johnson is probably the toughest big man to defend in the country not named Jared Sullinger, but he can get his points and the team still lose. In fact, in each of the last 4 Purdue losses, Johnson has scored more than his season average for points. You can't let both guys play well, and quite simply, Moore is the better choice to stop because he can score 3 points at a time instead of 2. While Johnson is a matchup nightmare, Moore is no slouch either. He can get to the basket or create his own shot off the dribble, he can post up smaller guards that try to defend him, and he is good at finding teammates if they are left open. To slow him down, you have to put your best perimeter defender on him like glue. It's also important to take advantage of forced passes by the Boilers, because a lot of the offense has to run through Moore and Johnson and they have a tendency to make ill-advised passes to get it to them. If you can do those things on defense and be efficient on offense, and Purdue can certainly be taken down.



WISCONSIN

Why they should believe: This team is exacly what I've been saying teams need to be to top the favorites - efficient. They don't take many bad shots, they don't turn the ball over (7.84 per game, more than one and a half fewer than any other D-1 team) and they can hit free throws better than anyone else (82.5% more than 2% better than any other D-1 team). Those numbers are pretty astounding. Throw in that they are a strong team at the defensive end, and they all hustle and it's clear to see there is a lot to like in Madison. Jon Leuer is a phenomenal talent both in the post and shooting from distance, and anyone who watched the Ohio State game at the Kohl Center knows what Jordan Taylor is capable of. Throw in the sharpshooting of Keaton Nankivil and Josh Gasser, and the great bench play of Mike Bruesewitz and Ryan Evans and this is a dangerous tournament team.

How they can be beaten: For starters, you have to play a full 40 minutes against this team. They will not quit playing and you can't either. Secondly, you need to find a way to get your offense scoring. In several games this season, the Badgers have suffered through a stretch in which they struggle to score points. In the games they've lost, those stretches have come in the last few minutes. Notre Dame held them scoreless for the final 4 minutes of their early season meeting. Michigan State shut the Badgers out for the final 2 and a half minutes of regulation before winning in overtime. Ohio State held them to 4 points over a six and a half minute stretch early in the second half while running their lead to 15 points before collapsing. When the Badgers struggle, you have to take advantage and pile up a lead. If you let Wisconsin get ahead late, their free throw shooting will likely do you in, so you have to keep the game tight, or stay ahead. Don't allow Wisconsin to get good inside looks. Make them hit outside shots to beat you, which is unfortunately something they can do. If you can take advantage of their offensive lulls, and keep your own intensity level up for 40 minutes, the slow pace Wisconsin plays will keep you in the game. You just have to get in front and hold off the run at the end for the Badgers.



Other teams capable of making a deep run: Notre Dame (smart, efficient team), St. John's (rapidly improving), Villanova (if they can get their heads on straight), BYU (Jimmer is a force), San Diego State (they just keep winning), Florida (slowly finding consistency), UConn (Kemba can take a game over), North Carolina (they have a ton of talent despite record), Missouri (always a tough matchup), and George Mason (more on this in a second).



WHO'S HAVING A GOOD WEEK:



Purdue: The Boilermakers started the week by topping Wisconsin at home in West Lafayette on Tuesday and followed that up by doing the same to conference leader Ohio State on Sunday. The Buckeyes had a 3-game stranglehold lead on the Big Ten before their loss to Wisconsin and now the cushion is down to just one game over the Boilermakers and the head-to-head advantage they had is now gone. E'Twaun Moore put in a career high 38 points in the win over the Buckeyes and this team is brimming with confidence and peaking at the right time.



George Mason: The Patriots have been on quite a tear of late. They have won 13 consecutive games including 11 by at least 14 points. This is more about their past 2-3 weeks than just this week. They throttled other Colonial heavyweights Hofstra and Old Dominion the first week of February, and then won at VCU by 20 earlier this week and won their Bracketbuster game over Northern Iowa to all but cement an at-large berth in this year's tournament. Mason plays great defense, they rebound well, and while their offense can get stagnant at times, they shoot the 3 very well and have been remarkably consistent. This is the type of play that can make the Patriots a cinderella in the big tournament once again.



Norris Cole, Cleveland State: This young man has had an absolutely ridiculous 9 days. On Saturday the 12th, Cole went out against Youngstown State and put up the most impressive statline I've seen all year with 41 points, 20 rebounds (YES 20, and did I mention he's a 6'2" point guard?), 9 assists and 3 steals. Four days later, he went out and scored what must have seemed like a miniscule 16 points to go along with 10 assists and 6 boards in a win over Wright State. In case he wasn't playing well enough, Cole went out in his Bracketbuster game on Sunday against Old Dominion and scored 35 points including 8 three pointers and dished out 5 assists in a loss where the rest of his team totaled just 28 points. This kid has been playing out of his mind, and he's the kind of player that can will his team to first round upset if the Vikings find a way into the tournament. Speaking of Norris Cole. . . . . .



Flat Tops: The old school hair style made famous by rap artists like Vanilla Ice and Kid of Kid'N'Play as well as NBA players like J.R. Reid is making a comeback. Norris Cole isn't the only one sporting the look, as Wisconsin bench contributor Ryan Evans and Tennessee star Scotty Hopson are also assisting in bringing it back. It's been fun to see and hopefully these kids continue to represent the hairdo well with strong play on the court.



WHO'S NOT HAVING A GOOD WEEK:



Kansas: Despite the easy win over Colorado on Saturday, Kansas had a very tough week by getting crushed by their in-state rival Kansas State Wildcats just hours after being named the number one team in the country. Add in that key reserve Thomas Robinson is out for a few weeks with injury, and things get worse. It's hardly backbreaking for a Kansas team that will likely be at worst a 2 seed in the tournament even if they drop a couple more games, but it's certainly not their best week of the year.



St. Mary's: The Gaels really had a terrible week if they want to be breathing easy on selection Sunday in a few weeks. Losing to Utah State in the Bracketbusters' marquee game is understandable. Utah State is a tough matchup for anyone, especially if you haven't seen them before. Stew Morrill's clubs always win 20+. That loss by itself isn't season crushing. When you couple it with the inexplicable loss to San Diego earlier in the week and it really could cause Gael fans to be hitting the panic button. St. Mary's does have a huge win over St. John's early in the year that gives their resume a big lift, but winning the WCC regular season title might be a must for an at-large berth now, and that likely means beating Gonzaga on Thursday night.



Virginia Tech: Boy, you wouldn't have expected to find the Hokies here headed into the weekend. Seth Greenberg's team rolled Georgia Tech a week ago, scoring over 100 points in the process, then completed a season sweep of Maryland on Tuesday, inching VT toward the right side of the bubble. On Saturday, however, they were defeated by lowly Virginia. For the second time. The Cavaliers need to finish strong to make the NIT and have only 4 ACC wins all season, and that's counting the two over Va. Tech. Thanks to that loss, the Hokies may have to win out to feel good about an at-large berth, and that means beating Duke at home next Saturday. That's never a comfortable feeling.



Bruce Pearl: The Tennessee Volunteers weren't exactly coasting through the conference schedule during Pearl's eight game suspension, but things may have actually gotten worse since his return. The team went 5-3 without Pearl, including big wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, but also bad losses to Alabama and Arkansas. With Pearl back on the sideline, the Vols are 1-3. They have lost to Georgia, Florida and Kentucky, none of which are bad teams, but Tennessee may now need to win 3 of their final 4 games to feel good about their standing, and that would require a win at home over Kentuucky or a win at Vanderbilt. I wouldn't feel too hopeful about either of those games the way Tennessee is playing of late.



GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK:



Monday 2/21:

Syracuse at Villanova (7pm et) - 'Cuse has revenge on their minds this week as Villanova took them down at the Carrier Dome last month. The Wildcats have been really scuffling lately with a bad loss against Rutgers a couple weeks ago on a 4-point play at the end of the game, a loss to Pitt to follow that up, and two road escapes over Seton Hall and DePaul last week, one in overtime. Syracuse has gotten back on track after a rough patch earlier this season, and if the Wildcats continue to struggle Syracuse could certainly take care of business on the road.



Oklahoma State at Kansas (9pm et) - The Jayhawks bounced back from the K-State loss well, and OSU is unlikely to win at the Phog. The Cowboys may need a win here to really plant themselves firmly on the bubble after missing out on an upset against Texas last week.



Tuesday 2/22:

Illinois at Ohio State (7pm et) - The Fighting Illini are quickly sliding down the at-large pecking order with each passing week. They fell against the Spartans on Saturday after barely surviving Michigan a couple days earlier. A win over the suddenly beatable Buckeyes would certainly stop the nosedive and stabilize the Iliini's tournament position. They had OSU on the ropes in Champagne last month, but they will have to finish the job to gain anything from this game.



Tennessee at Vanderbilt (9pm et) - Bruce Pearl and the Vols could really use a win in this one. They are sinking fast after being ranked in the top 10 early in the season. A win by Vanderbilt would seal them as a lock for the tournament. If there was any doubt if the Commodores belong in, a win here would erase it. Expect a desperate Tennessee team that plays its best with its back against the wall.



Michigan State at Minnesota (9pm et) - The Spartans came out of their free fall with a sound victory over Penn State, a respectable showing in a loss at Ohio State, and a nice win over fellow bubble team Illinois over the weekend. Here they get the other Big Ten bubble team struggling worse than them. The Gophers have failed to find any offensive rhythm since losing Al Nolen to injury, and I don't expect them to find it against MSU. The Spartans' role players have really stepped up to help Draymond Green and Kalin Lucas of late, and they seem to be headed back to the tournament.



Wednesday 2/23:

Temple at Duke (7pm et) - This game is more for the fun of watching a big nonconference game this late in the season as both of these teams are likely in the tournament as of now. Temple isn't going to be expected to go to Cameron Indoor Arena and beat Duke, but a win would definitely sew up an at-large berth.



Colorado State at BYU (8pm et) - The Rams let an opportunity to bolster their resume slip away against UNLV over the weekend, and now they really need to pull of an upset over the Cougars or San Diego State to feel good about their chances to go dancing. BYU is never easy to beat with Jimmer Fredette in control of their team, but Colorado State will definitely come in ready to play.



Baylor at Missouri (9pm et) - The Bears could really use a couple more big wins to feel like they have a good chance at the tournament, and a win at Missouri would be huge. The Tigers haven't lost at home all year, and they play a very tough style to play against. Perry Jones III will have his hands full with Ratliffe and Safford inside, but this is a win Baylor could really use right now.



Florida State at Maryland (9pm et) - This is a game the selection committee will be watching closely. So far this season, FSU has played like a tournament team. Their resume should put them squarely in the field of 68. Much of that resume was built with the help of star player Chris Singleton, who may be done for the season with injury. If Florida State can't prove that they are still a capable tournament team without Singleton in the lineup, the committee may decide that this isn't the team that built that resume. Maryland won't make things easy, as Jordan Williams is a load inside and the Terps are fighting for their tournament lives at this point.



Kansas State at Nebraska (9pm et) - After the huge upsets these two teams put up last week, their tournament outlooks are much different now. Kansas State went from the outside of the bubble to the inside, and Nebraska went from way off the bubble to squarely on it. The Huskers have no big wins in the nonconference, but with the win over Texas and home games left with K-State and Missouri, they can still change things. Nebraska has only lost in Lincoln once all year, to Kansas. If they pull off this win over the Wildcats, it would put them one more upset away from really being in the tourney discussion. Kansas State meanwhile, could certainly use this win to keep their momentum going and give them a little more margin for error the rest of the way.



Thursday 2/24

Marquette at Connecticut (7pm et) - Marquette is running out of chances to add a few big wins to the resume. This one is bordering on a must-win game for the Golden Eagles. The Big East affiliation will only go so far with the selection committe if they have to overlook 12 or 13 losses overall to put you in. UConn could use the win to help their seeding and bounce back from their loss to Louisville.



Georgia at Florida (7pm et) - The Bulldogs could certainly use another quality victory to solidify the tournament status. Chandler Parson's is banged up for the Gators who have 5 straight wins going into this game, and Georgia had Florida on the ropes in Athens before Erving Walker hit a long heave to tie the game at the end of overtime and force double-OT. The Gators don't need any help as far as getting into the tournament, but you never want to lose a home game to a big rival. If this is anywhere near as good as the first meeting, you won't want to miss this game.



Pittsburgh at West Virginia (9pm et) - The Mountaineers are coming off one of their biggest wins of the year over number 7 Notre Dame, and they should be feeling pretty good about where they stand with the selection committee. Pittsburgh is not happy about the way their last game ended against St. John's, and WVU is not happy about the outcome of the first meeting against Pitt this year. That makes for a very fun atmosphere for a rivalry game. The Panthers will certainly be favored, as St. John's was the first team to beat them on the road all year, and it was only by one point. This game is always exciting and always close, and this should be no exception.



Morehead State at Murray State (9pm et) - This game doesn't jump off the schedule at you, but this is a huge rivalry in the Ohio Valley conference. Morehead State went to the tournament two years ago, and then was the only OVC team to beat Murray State last year as the Racers went to the dance and upset Vanderbilt in the first round. The Racers have most of that team back this year, and this game is likely going to decide the OVC regular season title. If Murray State makes the dance, they will be tough again, and if it's Morehead State, thier opponent will have to deal with the nation's top rebounder Kenneth Faried. Either way, this game should be a good one to watch for a first round upset sleeper.



Gonzaga at St. Mary's (11pm et) - This game is likely to determine the West Coast Conference regular season title, and after their recent slide, it's a critical one for the Gaels. Gonzaga is always a difficult opponent late in the season, and for once it seems unlikely that Gonzaga will be in as an at-large team, so this game is also critical for the 'Zags. St. Mary's got over a huge psychological hurdle earlier this season, beating Gonzaga in Spokane, but they may need to beat them again in this one.


That's what to watch this week. I'll be back to take a look at the weekend slate of games later this week.