Well, we've hit the middle of the college basketball season, and although a lot can happen between now and the tournament selection show in March, things have started to shake out in the national landscape. There are a few obvious storylines to follow, such as the dominance of the top 25 by the Big East conference and the ridiculous scoring exploits of BYU guard Jimmer Fredette. Today, however, I would like to point out some things that aren't so obvious. Let's take a look at some of the most underrated and overrated players suiting up for NCAA division I teams:
Five of the most underrated players in college basketball:
1. Jeremy Lamb, UConn: This kid has been a huge spark for the Huskies while Kemba Walker hogs all the national attention. The 6'5" wingman has really started to hit his stride over the past few games and gives UConn another scoring threat alongside Walker to keep defenses honest. On top of his scoring ability, Lamb really uses his length well to bother opponents on the defensive end of the court and also gets active on the glass accounting for nearly 5 boards a game on the year. As his low post moves continue to come along, UConn will become more dynamic on the offensive end, as evidenced by the nearly 17 points a game Lamb has scored over the last 4 games. In that stretch, the Huskies have beaten Villanova, Marquette and Tennesee.
2. Reeves Nelson, UCLA: The UCLA Bruins have not exactly completed their return to the levels they were at a few years ago when they made 3 consecutive final four trips, but they do seem to be on the right track. After opening the season 3-4 with losses to Kansas and Villanova that are hard to blame them for and losses to Montana and VCU that they can be blamed for, the Bruins have won 10 of their last 12 with Nelson leading the way. Nelson leads UCLA in points and rebounds and is an absolute firecracker on offense. He can lead the fastbreak, hit outside jumpers, and yet still be a physical force in the low blocks. His presence has gone a long way toward returning UCLA to the tournament, and he deserves more credit for it.
3. Draymond Green, Michigan State: The Spartans' season hasn't gone quite as well as they would have hoped to this point with seven tallies in the loss column, but it could be quite a few more if not for this big fellow. Spartan fans will tell you that this guy is the general out there for MSU, not Kalin Lucas, and he constantly makes plays with the game on the line. He has a solid mid-range jumper, he's a great passer for a big man, and he's a very unselfish player. He almost single-handedly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat twice against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Green does a little bit of everything for MSU with averages of 13 points, 8.8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. Throw in that he's hitting 43% of his threes, and it's hard to find a hole in Green's game. He does shoot just 64% from the foul line, but he hits them when they count as evidenced by 17/19 free throw shooting in those games against the Badgers and Wildcats with most of those shots in late-game pressure situations.
4. Gilbert Brown, Pittsburgh: Most of what Gilbert Brown does for the no. 2 Pitt Panthers gets lost in the shuffle of the great play of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker in the backcourt and the low post show that Gary McGhee often puts on, but Brown is just as important to Pitt's success as any of those guys. Brown came into Pitt as a highly touted recruit, but his career has been derailed by injuries, but when watching him play this season, it is clear to see what kind of athlete Brown is. Brown doesn't lead the Panthers in any statistical category, but he makes an impact in just about all of them. It seems as though Brown is finally fully healthy, and his boost in numbers of one point, one assist and a rebound and a half per game, as well as increased free throw and three point percentages and a drastically improved assist-to-turnover ratio clearly demonstrate this. If Pitt finally breaks through to the final four, you can be sure a major contribution will be made by Gilbert Brown.
5. Keaton Nankivil, Wisconsin: No one on the Badgers really gets too much notice, save perhaps Mike Bruesewitz for his giant mop of red hair that flops around on his head while playing, but this team is full of solid players not getting enough attention. Keaton Nankivil is certainly one of them. While his overall numbers on the season of 9 1/2 points and 5 boards a game don't jump off the page at you, he has been much better than that in conference play. Nankovil has averaged 13 points per game against Big Ten foes while shooting over 50% from beyond the arc in those contests. Nankovil is a sound fundamental player who, despite standing 6-8, has a great long distance shot to draw defenders to him and open things up for the Badgers' top scorers, Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor.
Others receiving consideration: Nathan Walkup (Texas A&M), Alec Burks (Colorado), Jordan Williams (Maryland)
5 of the most overrated college basketball players:
1. Perry Jones, Baylor: Jones will be the start of a theme amongst the overrated players; most of them are freshmen. Jones is talented to be sure, but many people are talking about this young man as if he is almost certainly the top pick in next year's NBA draft. I have seen a couple Baylor games this year, and I don't see what the scouts are talking about. Jones certainly has size and a decent touch around the basket as well as some solid rebounding numbers, but he is extremely unpolished in the low post, as most young bigs are. Is it really going to benefit Jones to get drafted into the league and sit on the bench while developing his game? NBA history is littered with high draft picks that were selected mainly for size and potential that just never developed into the players they were supposed to, and I see nothing in Jones to make me believe that can't happen to him.
2. Durrell Summers, Michigan State: While Draymond Green has been making strides forward despite MSU's struggles, Summers has been regressing. Despite the team losing starters Raymar Morgan and Chris Allen this past offseason who combined for about 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists a game, Summers has failed to fill any of the void created by their departures. Durrell's points have gone up about 2.5 per game, but he has had fewer assists and rebounds per game than last season, even though his role should have increased due to attrition. Making his season look even worse is the fact that his efficiency numbers have almost all gotten worse. He is hitting a better clip of his triples, but his overall field goal percentage is down as is his free throw percentage, and he is sporting his worst assist-to-turnover ratio and lowest average points per shot attempt of his career. If these numbers don't rebound and improve soon, MSU may be in real danger of not making the big dance for the first time in 14 years.
3. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina: Everyone assumed with the addition of this top-rated freshman that the Tar Heels would reclaim their spot among the nation's elite, but that certainly hasn't happened. The Tar Heels do seem to be headed to the big dance fairly easily, but that has much more been a result of the improvement of older Tar Heels like Tyler Zeller and John Henson. There have been several freshmen that have been more productive than Barnes to this point, but Barnes will eventually be a fine player. The biggest problem with Barnes to note is his poor shooting performance at just 37% from the field to date. A player with Barnes's size needs to be able to get to the inside and get some higher percentage shots, and until he does that more consistently, Barnes will continue to be overrated.
4. Brandon Knight, Kentucky: Knight, much like Barnes is a highly touted freshman playing on a very good team that should be a decent seed in the big dance. Knight is getting far too much of the credit for the Wildcats' success. He is scoring a lot of points, but as a point guard, it is just as important for him to protect the ball and create scoring opportunities for his talented young teammates like Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones. His 1.1 assist-to-tunover ratio leaves a lot to be desired from the youngster. By comparison, veteran teammate DeAndre Liggins has a 2-to-1 ratio, and he is more a shooting guard than true point. While Knight, like the other freshmen I rank as overrated has a lot of talent and great potential, he will have to develop into more of a true point guard as the season progresses if he wants the Wildcats to have great success in the tournament. In leading UK to the elite 8 last season, John Wall posted 3 more assists per game than Knight as well as a 1.6 A/T ratio while still leading the team in scoring. Knight needs to have that kind of balance to duplicate that March success.
5. Kemba Walker, Connecticut: I know, this seems ridiculous to list the great Kemba Walker as overrated. The guy has improved leaps and bounds from last year. He has hit several clutch game winners, and his 25 points a game have taken a huge chunk out of the void created by the losses of Jerome Dyson, Stanley Robinson, and Gavin Edwards. Despite all of that, this list is for guys who are overrated in terms of helping their teams to win as many games as possible. Kemba is extremely gifted and is having an absolutely amazing season, but he has a bad habit of being too selfish and not trusting his teammates enough to help out. While he needs to be agressive to remain as effective as he's been, he needs to do a better job of finding teammates once he draws the defense to himself. His shooting percentage cannot continue to be as bad as it's been in conference play. Since the start of Big East play, Kemba has shot under 40% in 6 out of the 9 games he's played, and only 50% or better once, against hapless DePaul. Add in the fact that Walker has attempted at least 16 shots in all of those games, and it's clear to see it leads to a lot of empty Husky possesions. If Walker can cut back on the agressive shooting just a little and get Oriakhi and Lamb just a little more involved, UConn has all the makings of a team that can make a deep run.
Others receiving consideration: Durand Scott (Miami FL), Josh Selby (Kansas), the entire Kansas State frontcourt
Those are some of the players that have caught my attention as the season has worn on, but we all know that basketball is a team game not won by individuals. The group cutting down the nets at the end of the tournament is always a complete unit that functions as one, and here are the most cohesive units so far this season.
The 5 best national title contenders:
1. Ohio State: The Buckeyes put on a show on Tuesday night in an absolute rout over the Purdue Boilermakers that makes them the clear number one team in the land right now. The Buckeyes entire lineup is capable of dropping 20 points on you any given night, and that balance is what carries them. This team was incredible last year in earning a number 2 seed and advancing to the sweet 16 behind star Evan Turner. Turner is gone this season, but the rest of the starting lineup is back and they have added in three fantastic freshmen. Jared Sullinger is the best freshman in the country this year, and gives the Buckeyes a low-post scorer they didn't have last season with Dallas Lauderdale playing the 5 spot last year. Aaron Craft isn't nearly as heralded as Sullinger, but also fills a void from last year as a true point guard to run this team. Evan Turner handled point guard type duties last year from his small forward position. The rest of the starting lineup is made up of swingmen who can all handle the ball, shoot from distance and the mid-range, and can defend extremely well. Throw in another solid freshman in Deshaun Thomas and impressive low post defender, shot blocker, and rebounder Dallas Lauderdale coming in off the bench, and this team is absolutely loaded. If you double Sullinger in the low post, he'll kick it out to the many outstanding shooters, and if you don't, he'll drop 30 points on you. If the Buckeyes execute and hit shots, there isn't a team out there that can beat them. The biggest knock on them is a lack of depth, but this year's team actually gets 15 more minutes a game out of their bench than last year's, not to mention they foul less than just about any other team in the country, making foul trouble unlikely to be an achilles heel.
2. Kansas: The Jayhawks have an exceptional team that is loaded with veterans in the low post, namely the Morris twins, and a couple of upperclassmen that control the perimeter as well. Marcus and Markeiff Morris are both very impressive low post players on offense and very good rebounders. Marcus is the better scorer, but few teams boast as talented a frontcourt pair. Tyshawn Taylor is an exceptional defensive guard, but his offensive game is not up to the level of the graduated Sherron Collins. Tyrel Reed can certainly shoot the ball and makes plenty of smart plays and hustle plays, but lacks great size or strength. The real x-factor for the Jayhawks is freshman point guard Josh Selby. Outside of veteran Brady Morningstar, the Jayhawk bench is really undistinguished, and this team really needs Selby to be at his best to really make the push in the tournament that they're capable of. Selby can be a solid passer and an exceptional shooter, but he has been a nightmare in terms of focus and not making freshman mistakes both on and off the court. This team could be exiting in the second round again just as easily as they could be cutting down the nets as champs.
3. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are dangerous because they can kill you in a lot of ways. Gary McGhee is a tremendous body to throw around the block on both ends of the court, and he has some solid low post scoring ability. Forwards Nasir Robinson and Gilbert Brown are both good at slashing to the hoop to get easy buckets in close, with Brown's leaping ability getting him lay-ins over much taller defenders. Brown also has the ability to hit shots from the outside, making him a very tough matchup. The starting lineup is rounded out by two very impressive guards, Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker, both of whom can really handle the ball well and light up a defense from the outside. That group really creates an offense that can hurt you in a lot of ways, and they really execute very well, as anyone who watched them play Syracuse can attest to. They picked apart that 2-3 zone like they were at Cuse's practice watching it. The Panthers also play pretty solid defense, but their biggest advantage comes on the boards, where they rank 2nd in the nation. You have to shoot extremely well against this team, because you won't get many second chances on your possessions, and they are extremely efficient with theirs. Add in that the Panthers get a strong contribution from their bench with 4 other guys averaging at least 10 minutes and Travon Woodall over 20 and this team is short on weaknesses. Their biggest is free throw shooting outside of Gibbs, Wanamaker and Brown. The best strategy to attack this team is to slow down the game as Notre Dame did, and don't be shy about fouling anyone else on their roster than the 3 guys listed. But even to win like that, you have to shoot well yourself.
4. Texas: The Longhorns have got the best team they've had in years. Jordan Hamilton has become a scoring machine and Tristan Thompson is an absolute load in the low blocks. Dogus Balbay is a lockdown defender to put on the opposing point guard, and Gary Johnson is a solid low post player alongside Thompson. Throw in sweet shooting freshman Cory Joseph, and the contributions of sixth man J'Covan Brown, and Texas is a formidable team that can run with anybody. Their biggest asset is their athleticism, which they have used to run teams like Kansas and Texas A&M out of the gym in the last couple games. This team is just hitting its stride and can be very dangerous in March. The biggest weakness for this team is depth in the frontcourt. Should Thompson and Johnson be in foul trouble, Texas would be forced into a smaller lineup that could favor a team with good bigs.
5. Duke: The Blue Devils came into the season as the national frontrunner, and despite an upset loss at Florida State, they still must be considered a contender. Kyrie Irving's injury has been a major setback in Duke's season, but he will be back before the tournament which makes this team much more dangerous come March. Without Irving at the point, the team still has the explosive tandem of Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith in the backcourt, along with Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins trying to fill Irving's void. The place this team really has suffered is in the low post after the departure of Brian Zoubek. The Plumlee brothers are very talented, but really haven't displayed that talent often enough on the court. They are certainly vulnerable until Irving returns to teams with impressive low post players such as Maryland with Jordan Williams and North Carolina with Henson and Zeller.
Others deserving consideration: Villanova, San Diego State, Syracuse
Those teams look like the best bets to win the whole thing, but there are several teams that have been quietly going about their business, just waiting for the tournament to try and prove experts wrong. Here are a few teams that not everyone is talking about but they are certainly capable of playing with anyone in the country.
5 sure tournament teams that are flying under the radar:
1. Texas A&M: The Aggies don't do anything flashy, they aren't loaded with star players, and they don't care that most college hoops fans can't name anyone on the roster other than Khris Middleton. They do however, care about executing crisply. They do care about working hard at both ends of the floor. They do care about doing the little things that make the difference between winning and losing close games. A&M has only lost twice all year, and as long as they don't get caught up in the hoopla of being ranked highly in the polls, this team has a great shot of advancing to the elite 8 or even further. If that happens, more people will certainly know the names of Nathan Walkup, David Loubeau and Dash Harris, and the rest of the Aggies.
2. Wisconsin: Much like Texas A&M, Wisconsin goes about their business with little fanfare. They are extremely disciplined on offense, which is a staple of Bo Ryan teams. They are strong shooters and rebounders, and if you let this team get a lead late, say goodnight. The are tops in the nation from the free throw line at 82% as a team. Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor are the big time scorers, but Keaton Nankivil and a couple other Badgers are waiting for the D to focus on those two to make them pay. This team will likely run into a more talented team by around the sweet 16, but their bruising style of play always gives them a chance to beat those more talented teams.
3. Florida: It's difficult to say the Gators are flying under the radar after opening the season at number 11 in the coaches' poll, but they slumped early in the season and at one point fell out of the top 25. They suffered embarrassing losses to Central Florida and Jacksonville, but they have posted a couple impressive wins as well. They have really started to come together in SEC play, and they have a balanced team that can be dangerous. Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are a dangerous backcourt duo, and Chandler Parsons may be the best overall player on the team. Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin form an intimidating frontcourt, and that makes a starting lineup that can compete with just about anyone. They are unlikely to defeat any of the top Big East squads or OSU or Kansas, but they can certainly give them a dogfight. The Gators are very unlikely to give up in a game, which they demonstrated Tuesday night after nearly giving away a game to Georgia on the road before taking firm control in double overtime.
4. Missouri: This is all about the Tigers' style of play. There are very few teams that know how to get ready for the Mizzou "40 minutes of hell" gameplan. The Tigers use full court pressure on just about every possession, and if they force a turnover they push the ball in transition to try and score an easy bucket. The key to this year's Mizzou squad is that they are very disciplined in their half-court offense. Many people have the idea that this team plays at breakneck, reckless pace at all times, but that is simply their defensive philosophy. Things are different on offense. The Tigers are led by star guard Marcus Denmon, but this is a very deep team that throws a lot of capable bodies at you. The teams that really must beware of Missouri are those that really don't have a lot of depth like Kansas, Ohio State, and Syracuse.
5. Notre Dame: It's hard to fly under the radar as a top 15 team that resides in the Big East, but 'Nova, 'Cuse, Pitt, and UConn steal most of the headlines from this very sound team. The Irish are driven by their ability to shoot the three, as four of their five starters are pretty good shooters. Tim Abromaitis, Carleton Scott, Ben Hansbrough (Tyler's brother), and Scott Martin are all capable of shooting from downtown. More than that, this team is loaded with smart players. Hansbrough showed that by dominating a Pitt team that kept switching on ball screens often leaving slow-footed Gary McGhee guarding the speedy Hansbrough who made him pay. This team isn't loaded with elite athletes, although Scott has pretty impressive athleticism, but they seem to have no ego. The team has great chemistry and play very unselfishly, and that trait can carry a solid team like this a long way in March.
Others deserving consideration: Washington, Brigham Young, Minnesota
As I noted earlier, there is still a lot of season left to be played and the tournament field is far from decided, but there are a lot of teams that need to be worried about where they stand in terms of their resume. With that in mind, I present you with some teams that would likely not make the tournament if the season ended today, but if they earn their way in could be very tough first and second round matchups for others.
5 dangerous teams on the outside looking in:
1. Colorado: The Buffs just can't seem to play consistently enough to pad their resume. They have had some nice wins over Oregon State, Indiana, Kansas State, and Missouri, as well as a near miss in an upset bid against Kansas, but they have several head scratching losses, as well. Alec Burks is a game-changing scorer that Colorado hasn't had since the Chauncey Billups days, and this team has shown an ability to hang with some very good teams. If they can find a way to get some consistency down the stretch and beat the teams they are supposed to and find another couple of upsets, Colorado could make life difficult on someone in the first round of the tournament.
2. Marquette: The Golden Eagles have had so many near misses in upset bids in conference play, it has to be frustrating. Marquette has lost 8 games this season, all to teams that were either ranked at the time, or are currently ranked. The average margin of defeat is about 4 points per game. While it's impressive that they've been so competitive against the likes of Duke, Notre Dame, UConn, Pittsburgh, and Wisconsin, they only have 2 victories over teams anywhere near the top 25. They have to add some signature wins to get into the dance. They have had some horrible chokes late in games, most notably blowing an 18-point lead in just over 5 minutes against Louisville. They do have some big games left on the schedule, but with a couple more near misses, it will be hard to see this team in the tourney. If they are able to make it to the tournament, the backcourt duo of Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom will make it a tough game for any foe they draw in round one. They haven't lost by more than 8 points all year.
3. Butler: The Bulldogs need to start doing some serious work soon, or else they will need to win the conference tournament to make sure they are going to the big dance. Sad for a team that came just a few inches on a half-court shot away from winning the national title last season, and returned most of that squad. I don't know if it's complacency or everyone in the league gunning for them, or a brutal nonconference schedule wearing them out, but the Bulldogs just don't look like the same team. Shelvin Mack, Ronald Nored and Matt Howard are too good to continue to limp along at 6-3 in Horizon play. It's a little presumptuous to assume the Bulldogs will win the Horizon tournament, but if the do and go dancing, they won't be an easy out. They still play the same style that has wreaked havoc on higher seeds over the past decade when the Bulldogs have made the dance. They slow the game down, shoot the 3 well, and defend well. If you can execute that gameplan, it gives you a chance in most games.
4. UCLA: The Bruins still have to win the games they're supposed to find a way into the tournament, but they have really started to hit their stride led by Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson. In their terrible down year a season ago, UCLA really didn't have a true point guard and the offense really sputtered at times without someone in control of it. Lazeric Jones has stepped in and filled that void this season. Josh Smith is a very promising young big man with soft hands and nice touch at the hoop, but he needs to learn how to stay out of foul trouble. This can be a very dangerous team in the opening weekend of the tourney if they can get there and get the right matchup. This Bruin team is the only squad to beat BYU to date.
5. Georgia: Mark Fox really has done a nice job getting Georgia to be a strong basketball team for the first time since Jim Harrick was coaching them. The problem is that they are currently in the very tough SEC eastern division, and they are the only team in it with 3 conference losses. With the SEC being down this year, The Bulldogs can't afford to end up 5th or 6th in the east and still go dancing. They let what would have been a huge win slip away against Florida as they failed to foul Erving Walker at the end of the first overtime and instead let him heave up a 35-foot 3-pointer to tie the game again. They haven't had any really bad losses, but they need a couple more big wins to really make their case to the selection committee. They have a tremendous trio of scorers in Trey Thompkins in the low post, Gerald Robinson on the perimeter, and freakish athlete Trevor Lindsey from wherever he wants to score. They do a great job of rebounding but they do struggle at times to maintain focus on defense. If they can iron out a few kinks and pull out a couple big wins down the stretch, this could be a very intimidating first or second round foe.
Others deserving consideration: St. John's, Penn State, Old Dominion
Well I've looked at some of the elite teams in college hoops this season, as well as some very good teams not getting the national attention they deserve. I've also taken a look at a few teams that could be very scary draws in the NCAA tournament. . . . if they get there, but one group of teams I haven't looked at are those that have been incredibly disappointing so far this season. These teams came into the season eyeing deep tournament runs, but have really not made good on those high expectations. Here's a look at a few of those teams that should really consider paying back their season ticket holders.
5 biggest disappointments in college basketball this season:
1. Michigan State: I really question how Tom Izzo is sleeping at night these days. I can't imagine he's sleeping well. Then again, he could be coaching the Cleveland Cavaliers right now, and that has to give him a little relief. Normally I give Izzo's Spartan's the benefit of the doubt. They always play a brutal nonconference schedule and lose at least a few of those games before settling into conference play and being for the most part impressive. They normally have the occasional hiccup loss to a Penn State or an Iowa, but they normally wind up a decent seed that is battle tested for March. This season started same as any with the nonconference gauntlet, resulting in losses to powerhouse teams UConn, Texas, Duke, and Syracuse. Once conference play started, this team didn't look quite the same. They have scored wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin, but losses to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue have many questioning these Spartans. Throw in that lightning quick guard Korey Lucious was kicked off the team for the rest of the season and it seems as if the wheels are falling off. MSU still looks like a tournament team, but nowhere near the #2 overall ranking the coaches gave them in the preseason. They just seem to lack the toughness and chemistry of last season's team, and they don't have a place to go when they need instant offense. This team may surprise me in March, but I expect Sparty out before the end of the opening weekend.
2. Kansas State: If Tom Izzo is having a hard time sleeping, Frank Martin is screaming at players in his sleep. Kansas State has had one problem after another this season. Jacob Pullen is desperately missing backcourt-mate Denis Clemente, and the frontcourt has been a complete mess on the offensive end. This team was the favorite in the Big 12 entering the year, and now would be lucky to be considered the 5th best team in that league. Curtis Kelly missed 6 games due to receiving illegal benefits while Pullen missed 3 games for the same thing. This team has tinkered with lineups all season long and has had only one player (Rodney McGruder) start every game this season. The lack of continuity has been a real problem for the Wilcats and they better find a lineup that works before long, because if they don't learn how to play together soon, Jacob Pullen may have to decide whether he really will sit out the NIT.
3. Virginia Tech: The Hokies felt that this was finally the team that would keep them from sweating out selection Sunday from the bubble. The high expectations must make this all that much more painful. The Hokies are 13-6 with very few high profile wins, and seem to be following that same recipe to put them and coach Seth Greenberg in front of the TV hoping to hear their name called and not be headed to the NIT yet again. It's hard not to feel bad for Malcolm Delaney, who is a great player who hasn't been to the tournament in his career.
4. Baylor: The Bears opened the season at number 14 in the coaches poll, and gave themselves a cupcake nonconference schedule that would allow them to pad wins while getting freshman big man Perry Jones some quality experience. The strategy backfired when the Bears lost their three toughest nonconference games to teams that really aren't that good. They failed to beat Gonzaga, Florida State, and Washington State, all of whom might be playing in the tourney, but none of whom will do so as a top 6 seed. Baylor followed that up by opening 3-3 in conference with no marquee wins, but a bad loss to Iowa State. They really miss the leadership of point guard Tweety Carter and the polished low post game of Ekpe Udoh. Perry Jones makes mistakes down low, and there is no one there to level out LaceDarius Dunn when he gets off to a cold shooting start. Those downgrades from last year have left this team far from a lock to go dancing.
5. Gonzaga: Mark Few's team lined up a gauntlet to open the season that would scare many power conference teams, but his team failed to secure enough wins in that gauntlet to get a big boost in tourney chances. They lost 5 of their first 9 games but did beat Marquette and Baylor in that stretch. They did follow that with 9 straight wins including a 3-0 start in conference play, then they got stunned. They lost back-to-back road games, first against 12-9 Santa Clara by a shocking 14 points, then in overtime to San Francisco. In a conference as weak as the WCC, these kinds of losses can't happen if you want to leave the door open for an at-large bid should St. Mary's win the WCC tournament. The 'Zags still feel confident I'm sure that they can make the tournament, and the talented trio of Robert Sacre, Steven Gray and Elias Harris have the experience to try and make certain that happens. At any rate, the 13-7 start with two bad road losses is not the start that a team opening the season ranked #12 expects.
A lot of these teams may turn their fortunes around in the remainder of the season, but all of this is just talk until the tournament games go down. College basketball allows things to get settled on the court. Until those tournament games roll around, the Ohio State's and Kansas's of the world will continue to work out their little kinks to make a run at a title, while everyone else goes to work on making sure that they still have meaningful games to play once the regular season is over. Either way, it should be a fun final month and a half of lead-up to the big dance with several big games left along the way. Enjoy the games, and I'll be back with more college hoops analysis soon.
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