Fantasy Football Position Preview: QB's

That's right everyone, it's fantasy football draft time again, and always a good idea to take a position by position look at who you should want and not want on your team. Today I'm talking quarterbacks. This season the QB position is a deep one, and not a place where you should reach early to grab one. Even in a 12-team league it's possible to be the last team to scoop a qb and still have a productive signal caller. It certainly wouldn't hurt to have one of the top few guys at the position, but the elite level talent is thinner in other positions, particularly running backs and wide recievers. DO NOT PASS ON A STUD RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST ROUND FOR A QB! There simply are not enough backs not in a timeshare to pass on the lead horses. With that said, don't be afraid to jump all over one of the tier one guys should they slip past where you would expect them to go. At the back of the first round, or in the second round, picking a qb is ok. But, if you miss on one of the top guys, sit back and let a qb you like a little further down the rankings fall to you while you stock up on other positions.

Tier 1:
1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning

You really can't miss with any of these guys. Brees has been doing this every year, and still has a ton of weapons at his disposal. Colston, Meachem, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Reggie Bush, and Pierre Thomas, not to mention Shockey, are an arsenal of targets that Brees just knows how to use. Aaron Rodgers has a similar situation in Green Bay, but he hasn't been performing at this level as long as Brees has. Rodgers may very well top Drew in points, but Brees's consistency makes him the safer choice. If you miss on the first two, you will never regret drafting Peyton Manning. The group around him has changed a lot over the past few seasons, but Manning doesn't. He is as consistent as they come.

Tier 2:
4. Tony Romo
5. Matt Schaub
6. Phillip Rivers
7. Tom Brady

If you feel the need to reach for a qb, you will likely end up with one of these four guys if you miss out on the top 3. Romo is a very steady performer and has a healthy Felix Jones and has Dez Bryant added in to an already potent offense. The only fear is more emphasis on the running game with Marion the Barbarian, Tashard Choice, and Jones. Schaub will put up a ton of yards, as long as he stays healthy, which he finally did last year. Rivers had a phenomenal 2009, but the defenses might be a little more apt to defend the pass now that LT is out of the picture and replaced by a rookie in Ryan Matthews. Tom Brady is better when Wes Welker is in the lineup, and he is still a solid qb, but his days of being an elite fantasy producer are behind him.

Tier 3:
8. Kevin Kolb
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Carson Palmer
11. Brett Favre
12. Jay Cutler
13. Joe Flacco
14. Vince Young

If you take my advice and wait on the quarterback position, you will find yourself in this tier with your pick. Any of these players could be a productive fantasy quarterback, and it is really a matter of personal preference which one you go with. Kevin Kolb simply has the most weapons of the group. Even without Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver are effective receivers out of the backfield. They also still have DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek to catch passes, and a pass-heavy west coast offense. McNabb and Palmer are both solid veteran qb's who will get the most out of the talent around them. McNabb makes the Redskins offense legitimate, and Devin Thomas, Santana Moss, and Chris Cooley will all be better for it. T.O. and Antonio Bryant team with Ochocinco to give the Bengals a dangerous passing attack with Andre Caldwell a solid 4th receiver, but this team will likely stick with what worked and be more of a smashmouth football team. Benson and Pollard will detract from the passing numbers but will keep the Bengals winning. Brett Favre will play in 2010, lets be serious. The Vikes will be cautious with him however, mostly to keep him healthy. A healthy dose of Adrian Peterson and a dash of Toby Gerhart will help Favre a lot, but not his numbers. Mike Martz can't help but improve Cutler's yardage numbers, and as a result his value has to go up even if he keeps throwing picks. Another year of seasoning for his young supporting cast will also make Cutler better this year. Joe Flacco and Vince Young are both young qb's looking to take the next step forward in their careers. Flacco now has Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth added to his list of targets that helped him to a solid sophomore campaign a year ago. VY finally has the starting gig back to open a season, and his strong running numbers augment his value enough that a solid passing season could make him a better qb than I have him ranked as.

Tier 4:
15. Alex Smith
16. Eli Manning
17. David Garrard
18. Chad Henne
19. Matthew Stafford
20. Matt Cassel
21. Matt Ryan

These guys should not be your starting qb to open the season, and if they are, you might be in trouble. Anyone on this list would be a solid backup to have, and wouldn't kill you if your starter went down, but they are also unlikely to blow you away with strong performances. Smith has the best chance to be starter-caliber. He is back in the starting job and has a strong core of players around him. His numbers were solid last year, but not spectacular. It's risky to bank on him improving a lot on the numbers he posted in 2009. Eli is pretty consistently average. He won't crush you, and will have a couple really solid games a year, but always leaves you wishing he did more. Garrard is a solid, consistent backup quarterback who won't leave you frustrated if you have to play him. He doesn't turn the ball over a lot, and really threw more than expected last year. Chad Henne should take a step forward as the full time starter, especially with Brandon Marshall in tow, but the wildcat offense will limit his production, as nobody runs the wildcat as well or as much as the Dolphins. Matt Stafford will be a strong qb if he can limit the INT's. He has weapons, and he just needs to get better at using them. Matt Cassel may seem high here, but the Chiefs will be a better team on offense this year. They have added a few new players who fit Todd Haley's system better, and Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles will take some pressure off Cassel. They will be throwing a lot too, since the defense still isn't very good. Matt Ryan will always be a victim of his system. They are a smashmouth football team with 3 solid backs in Michael Turner, Jason Snelling, and Jerious Norwood. Only Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are dangerous receiving weapons, and Ryan's numbers will show the run-heavy bias.

Tier 5:
22. Jason Campbell
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Ben Roethlisberger
25. Matt Leinart
26. Sam Bradford
27. Matt Hasselbeck
28. Kyle Orton
29. Josh Freeman
30. Jake Delhomme

These guys are question marks. Only Campbell, Sanchez, Big Ben, and Hasselbeck are assured of starting spots. The Raiders won't fix themselves overnight, and while Campbell makes them better, he still has to adjust to the new offensive teammates. Sanchez might be allowed to throw a little more this year, but the Jets will still be very run-oriented on O. Big Ben will miss 4-6 games with his suspension, but if he's the same Big Ben when he plays, he'll be worth owning. Leinart must hold off Derek Anderson to start, and has the weapons to be successful, but he never has been successful in short stints in the lineup in the past. Bradford has a solid O line and a great running game along with some very fast wideouts in Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson, but he likely won't start right away. Hasselbeck is getting old, and losing weapons, with Burleson now in Detroit. He may still surprise and have a good year, but I'll have to see it to believe it. If Kyle Orton holds off Tim Tebow, he'll be solid, but in a run-heavy offense. Without Brandon Marshall, the passing numbers just won't be there. Josh Freeman will have a long leash in Tampa, and he's capable of making plays with his arm and his legs, but he doesn't have the talent around him to help out. Delhomme could be solid if he can forget about last season altogether and also the 5-pick debacle against Arizona in the playoffs two seasons ago. I think his best days are behind him.

Sleepers:
Jay Cutler - People are scared of the poor red zone performance from last season, but he can't help but be better this season. His weapons are developing. Devin Aromashadu is poised for a breakout, Devin Hester continues to become a better route runner, and Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett show signs of improvement as well. Mike Martz will get the most out of these guys, and Cutler could have a huge bounceback season.
Matt Cassel - Many people have given up on Cassel as a fantasy QB, but I see signs in KC that he may bounce back strong this year. Dexter McCluster will give defenses fits trying to matchup with him in a variety of roles, Dwayne Bowe will be there all year, Lance Long emerged as a weapon last year, and Jamaal Charles is a strong receiver out of the backfield. Combine that with Todd Haley's pass-heavy attack, and Cassel could be in for a strong season.
Colt McCoy - If both Delhomme and Seneca Wallace falter in Cleveland, and McCoy sees the field, he could produce right away. Jerome Harrison has emerged as a strong back, and young receivers Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie will have a hard time not catching balls from the accurate McCoy. Throw in Colt's running ability, and he could put up some numbers if he gets in there.

Busts:
Joe Flacco - A lot of experts love Flacco. Matthew Berry at ESPN is often saying that he is wacco for Flacco in his columns, but I don't buy it. Sure he has more options to throw to, but with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'ron McClain, this team's bread and butter is still the running game. While a 3,000 yard season wouldn't stun me out of Flacco, I certainly don't buy him as a top-10 fantasy QB as many others do.
Tarvaris Jackson - Don't buy into the talk that Favre will retire. He won't. Avoid Tarvaris unless Favre gets hurt again.
Matt Ryan - The Falcons just don't have enough receiving options for Ryan to move to the next level as a fantasy player. I wouldn't draft him as a starter. He's an efficient quarterback, but he simply won't be throwing enough to produce starter numbers. I don't buy into Michael Jenkins as a solid number 2 wideout, and Turner and Snelling are useless when it comes to catching balls out of the backfield, which also hurts Ryan's options.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - While no one will rank Fitzpatrick high, I've seen several "Experts" who have listed Fitzpatrick among their sleepers for the qb position. They clearly believe that he will beat out Trent Edwards for the starting job and will be playing from behind enough to throw for a lot of yards. What they forget is that he's still Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has never been a good starting qb despite experience with 3 teams. Don't buy the sleeper hype on this guy.

The X-Factor:

Kevin Kolb - Kolb is probably the hardest starting quarterback to peg as far as his numbers for this season go. He has seen limited playing time each of the last 2 seasons with solid results, but now he has to produce over the course of a full season. He has the weapons and an offense that likes to throw a lot, but does he have the ability to make this team a contender and put up the kind of fantasy numbers the Eagles' offense is capable of. I think he will be fine, but there are no guarantees with this kid.

That's all I really have to say about quarterbacks for the 2010 season. There is not a whole lot of variance in point totals within the tiers, so is really is a matter of personal preference within each tier. Whatever you do, make your own lists and don't fully rely on the so-called experts who get paid to make theirs. I'm giving you my opinion on what will transpire this football season and the order in which I would pick these quarterbacks. Like I said, if you miss the tier 1 guys, don't jump all over tier 2. Sit on a qb until later in the draft and stockpile at the other positions, especially since value at running back is very fickle, and the only way to protect yourself against a lemon is with quantity. In a couple days, I will take a closer look at running backs. If your draft is sooner than that, good luck.