Predictions for the Rest of the 2010 Baseball Season

With a little over two months left in this year's baseball season, there is very little already decided. While it feels as if we have a pretty good idea of who the best and worst teams in the league are, a lot can change over the final two months, as there is a lot of baseball yet to be played. As many as 18 teams should still have realistic hopes that if they get healthy and catch a few breaks that they could be one of the eight teams that wind up still playing into October. With that in mind, I have given my opinion on where teams will end up and what will transpire over the next couple of months. I might be a mile off on some of these predictions, but here they are:



AL East: 1. Tampa Bay Rays 2. New York Yankees 3. Boston Red Sox 4. Toronto Blue Jays 5. Baltimore Orioles



I feel like the Rays pitching and superior athleticism will carry them surging past the Yankees into first in the east. New York will sorely miss Andy Pettitte's veteran presence over the next month or so. David Price will continue his dominance and James Shields and Matt Garza will find their form, while Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and company tear the cover off the ball and tear up the basepaths in taking over the division. The Red Sox will fall by the wayside in the wild card race as Clay Buchholz fades and the bullpen outside of Ramon Ramirez and Papelbon will continue to struggle and the offense will struggle without the scrappy Dustin Pedroia. Toronto will continue to have a nice season and finish near .500 with their slugging lineup, and the Orioles will chalk up a season with the league's worst record as a learning experience for their young future stars, but that won't be enough to keep Juan Samuel in the manager's role on a more permanent basis.



AL Central: 1. Minnesota Twins 2. Detroit Tigers 3. Chicago White Sox 4. Kansas City Royals 5. Cleveland Indians



In what should be the tightest race in baseball for a playoff spot, I expect the Twins to hold off the Tigers and White Sox for the division title. Morneau will get healthy, and the strong fundamental baseball the Twinkies play will propel them to the playoffs. The Tigers have been a pleasant surprise this season with huge contributions from rookies Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson, as well as an MVP caliber year from Miguel Cabrera. Unfortunately, the overuse of their bullpen due to an inconsistent starting staff will catch up with this team. They will fall just short to Minnesota again. The White Sox have been on a tear over the past month, but the bats will almost certainly cool off eventually, and the rotation has no one that scary with Peavy on the shelf. It also doesn't help them that they never know what to expect from Bobby Jenks in the ninth. All of those issues should drop them to third by season's end. The Royals will have a fairly successful year despite a 4th place finish. The young core of the team has really made strides, and now it's a matter of being able to keep the team together. The Indians have few positives to take from the season, and will finish last in the central.



AL West: 1. Texas Rangers 2. Oakland Athletics 3. Los Angeles Angels 4. Seattle Mariners



The Rangers' acquisition of Cliff Lee is the difference maker here. The lineup is lethal, and C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter have done a nice job keeping the team at the top of the division, but Lee is a lights-out ace to anchor the staff, and the Rangers will run away with the west and have a legitimate shot to compete in the playoffs and win. The Oakland A's have quietly had a solid season. The rotation has been very solid, as has the bullpen, and the punchless lineup has shown improvement, particularly in Kurt Suzuki and Cliff Pennington. I think a strong second half puts the A's in front of the Angels, but still a ways behind Texas. The Angels' rotation outside of Weaver is not very strong, even with the addition of Dan Haren, who will help, and the lineup has been makeshift without Kendry Morales in the middle of it. Brandon Wood didn't develop the way he was supposed to, and the rest of the lineup is made up of fill-in type players aside from Howie Kendrick and Torii Hunter, which are hardly big-time sluggers themselves. The Mariners dug themselves a hole early in the season and never really started to climb out. Dealing Lee certainly doesn't help them, and they seem to be a lock for 4th in the west.



NL East: 1. Atlanta Braves 2. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Florida Marlins 4. New York Mets 5. Washington Nationals

The Braves are just going to be hard for anyone to catch. They have been one of the best teams in baseball since the start of May, and the Phillies have been too beat up to keep pace. The injury to Chase Utley kills their chances to overtake the Braves, who have a tremendous rotation and a solid bullpen if Billy Wagner doesn't break down. The lineup isn't overpowering, but everyone contributes. Martin Prado, Troy Glaus, Brian McCann and Jason Heyward have been the catalysts, but even the role players such as Omar Infante, Eric Hinske and a motley crew of others have helped as well. The Phillies have just as good a rotation, and a potent lineup, but the lack of Utley and a very volatile bullpen situation will send the two-time defending NL champs home before the postseason. The Mets rotation will struggle eventually, even if Johan Santana is lights out every start. The lineup is solid, but not overpowering, and the bullpen doesn't really frighten anyone until K-Rod comes in. I see the Marlins overtaking the Mets with some strong pitching from Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, and a young lineup that is slowly getting better as Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton develop. The Nationals will put up a valiant effort to stay out of the cellar, but the talent is still a couple years away from being a serious contender in a strong NL east.

NL Central: 1. St. Louis Cardinals 2. Cincinnati Reds 3. Chicago Cubs 4. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Milwaukee Brewers 6. Houston Astros

The central race may have been decided by the injury to Reds' starting third baseman Scott Rolen. His resurgence was a huge part of why the Reds' offense has been so good to this point in the season. The Cardinals just have too strong a pitching staff to be dethroned in the central. Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia make up the strongest 3-man rotation in baseball, and the Cards are still looking to add Roy Oswalt. If the lineup can get anything out of Matt Holliday down the stretch to help Albert Pujols and company, it could be a runaway. I do believe the Cubs have a run left in them as the rotation has been strong so far, and disappointing stars like Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, and Derrek Lee get hot, but the Cubs may have done themselves in with a 6-15 record against the Pirates and Astros before this week, the two worst teams in the central to date. The run will give Cubs fans hope, but they will fall short of the postseason. Every year, one team at the bottom of the standings makes a run late in the season that makes their year seem respectable as they climb a couple spots in the standings. This year, that team will be the Pittsburgh Pirates. The young lineup is coming around fast, as Pedro Alvarez recently homered 4 times in 2 games, and Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, and a couple others have started to produce more consistently. The bullpen has a couple of solid arms in Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek, and the young starting staff should have some stronger outings as they gain experience. The Milwaukee Brewers will head the opposite direction. They have no starting pitching to speak of after Yovani Gallardo, and if they deal a couple of bats away at the deadline, they will really scuffle the rest of the way. I see a big slide coming for the Brew Crew. The Astros simply have the least amount of talent in the majors on their roster. Only Lance Berkman, Wandy Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and the likely soon-to-be-traded Roy Oswalt are worth mentioning as legitimate big leaguers. Carlos Lee is way over the hill and the rest of the team is just not good. They will finish last in the division, if not the whole NL.

NL West: 1. San Diego Padres 2. San Francisco Giants 3. Colorado Rockies 4. Los Angeles Dodgers 5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Padres are for real. Great rotation, even better bullpen, and a lineup built around Adrian Gonzalez that comes through when it needs to. This team is built on pitching, defense, and timely hitting. They also make their own breaks by stealing a boatload of bases. They will hold off the rest of the division. The Giants will play well in the second half and will take down the wild card. They have the best rotation in this division, and their bullpen has been pretty solid as well. They at times struggle to put up runs, but rookie Buster Posey has given the Giants enough punch to make a difference in the playoff race. The Rockies have a chance if they get hot in the second half as they have the best lineup in the west, but they really don't have enough pitching after Ubaldo Jimenez, and even he has really struggled of late. I don't see the Rockies beating out San Fran. The Dodgers just seem to be a team without a real identity. They hit pretty well, but some of their sluggers have underachieved. Their rotation is pretty good, but really is one arm short, and they won't make a move given the owner's divorce still being unsettled. Plus, outside of Broxton, the bullpen isn't as good as it was a year ago. They will slip to the back of the west's lead pack. The Diamondbacks will not get out of fifth, and trading Haren really announced that to the rest of the division. Their lineup still is too agressive, despite having some good hitters, but the pitching is awful.

AWARDS
AL Manager of the Year: 1. Ron Washington, Texas 2. Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay 3. Cito Gaston, Toronto

Washington is the easy choice if the Rangers win the west. It was far from expected that Texas would be this good. Joe Maddon will get a lot of credit if the Rays win the east over New York, and Girardi and Gardenhire are expected to win with the teams they have. Ozzie Guillen will get some credit for the Sox turnaround, and Leyland for doing so well with such a young and beat up team, but if neither of them win the central, it will be Cito Gaston who will be third in the vote. Gaston took a Blue Jays team expected to be awful with the loss of Roy Halladay, and kept them afloat and around the .500 mark. With the team he has, no one expected that.

AL Rookie of the Year: 1. Brennan Boesch, Detroit 2. Carlos Santana, Cleveland 3. Austin Jackson, Detroit

It's hard to pick against Boesch if he doesn't fade down the stretch. There really isn't much of a rookie pool to choose from in the AL, unlike in the senior circuit. Santana came up too late to match Boesch's numbers, and Jackson has also done a very nice job replacing fan favorite Curtis Granderson.

AL Cy Young: 1. David Price, Tampa Bay 2. Jon Lester, Boston 3. C.C. Sabathia, New York

All of the finalists here are from the loaded AL East, mainly because no one can match the numbers these guys are putting up. Price has clearly been the best of these guys, with Lester not all that far behind. Sabathia hasn't been overpowering as he usually is, but his ERA is still just a shade over 3 and he will top the AL in wins, which help in the Cy Young vote. The only other guy I think could crack the top 3 is Cliff Lee if he has a strong run in Texas.

AL MVP: 1. Josh Hamilton, Texas 2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit 3. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

This won't be fair, but it will happen if the Tigers don't win the central. Cabrera will pretty much have to win the triple crown to take home the MVP without a division title, and Hamilton will likely get the hardware with slightly lesser numbers in a better lineup. Cabby has carried the Tigers' offense so far, but will be hard-pressed to take them to the playoffs. I believe Longoria will get hot in the second half to be the best of the rest after Cabrera and Hamilton.

NL Manager of the Year: 1. Bud Black, San Diego 2. Bobby Cox, Atlanta 3. Dusty Baker, Cincinnati

Bud Black is an easy choice if the Padres win the west. It's a very unexpected result from a very good division. There will be a lot of push to get this award to Cox in his last season, but Black just has done too good a job to be bypassed to honor a legend. Dusty Baker has been a phenomenal manager for the Reds this year, and just being in contention will get him consideration.

NL Rookie of the Year: 1. Stephen Strasburg, Washington 2. Jaime Garcia, St. Louis 3. Buster Posey, San Francisco

Strasburg will get the award because everyone is dazzled by the stuff and the strikeout numbers, but Garcia will be more deserving. The Cardinals seemed thin in the rotation after Carpenter and Wainwright, but Garcia has been sensational, and he's been that since opening day. Buster Posey has been the best NL rookie hitter, and will be voted higher than other solid rooks Jason Heyward, Tyler Colvin, and Starlin Castro.

NL Cy Young: 1. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis 2. Josh Johnson, Florida 3. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado

Wainwright has been dominant and is getting better. The fact that he will have more wins and pitch on a division champion will get him the nod over Johnson, who will probably have a lower ERA. Jimenez will likely continue his second half struggles, but he will lead the majors in wins, and that is always tough to overlook in the Cy Young vote. Tim Hudson, Jaime Garcia and Roy Halladay will also deserve consideration at year's end.

NL MVP: 1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati 2. Albert Pujols, St. Louis 3. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego

Votto will have the best numbers. Even though Cincy will miss the playoffs most likely, Votto will keep them in the hunt without Scott Rolen or a dangerous supporting cast. It will be tough for the voters to screw this up like they did by snubbing him for the all-star game. Pujols will have his usual strong numbers, but he will wind up second in the vote because anything less than superhuman out of him is considered a disappointment, and he is in a stronger lineup than Votto. Gonzalez carried the Padres offense on his back for much of the last two years, but his numbers have regressed a little this year, and he will miss out on a prime MVP opportunity.

PLAYOFFS

ALDS: Rays over Twins, Rangers over Yankees
ALCS: Rays over Rangers
NLDS: Padres over Braves, Cardinals over Giants
NLCS: Cardinals over Padres
World Series: Cardinals over Rays

The best three-man rotation in baseball and the bats of Pujols, Rasmus, Ludwick and Holliday carry the Cards past two teams that just don't hit enough and a Rays team that doesn't have a lights out starter other than David Price. It should be a fun season, and this could be completely wrong, but this is my take on how the rest of the season will play out.